BICOM

Key Points

• Last week US President Barack Obama welcomed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to the White House.  Obama’s administration continues to formulate its strategy and present its goals for engaging with the complex political and security dynamics of the Middle East.
• Abbas’s meeting and concurrent developments in Jerusalem have signalled a possible resumption of peace talks between the PA and Israel in the near future.  More details are not expected until after Obama’s Cairo address on US relations with the Muslim world later this week.
• Abbas visited Washington in the midst of a prolonged and deep domestic political crisis, characterised mainly by the West Bank-Gaza split with Hamas and his own disunited Fatah party. Obama has been keen to help Abbas weather the storm since coming to office, and is trying to do so through multiple channels.
• Given the pressures on Abbas and other political considerations in Israel and the wider region, Obama is seeking to engage key Arab allies with shared interests, that can boost the moderate Palestinian leadership, improve regional relations with Israel and help unlock the door to a broader peace.

Introduction

Last Thursday, President Obama hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at the White House as part of a series of talks he is currently conducting with Middle Eastern leaders about how to revive the peace process.  US policy is of course still emerging.  Obama’s address to the Arab and Muslim world in Cairo on 4 June, after a trip to Riyadh for talks with Saudi King Abdullah, will provide a fuller sense of how it is shaping up.  But Obama has sought to bolster the moderate Palestinian leadership since day one of his presidency.  Abbas was the recipient of Obama’s first official phone call to a foreign leader upon taking office in January.[i]  This analysis examines the principal issues raised last week, the tough challenges facing Abbas, and how Obama is seeking to strengthen him and advance the diplomatic process through the broader regional outreach of key Arab states.

The main issues contextualised: towards a resumption of peace talks?

In a similar format to Obama’s recent meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Obama held a private discussion with Abbas in the Oval Office, as well as wider talks with presidential aides. In the televised remarks which followed, both Obama and Abbas began by reaffirming their commitment to the international Quartet’s Roadmap, for which the new Israeli government has also expressed support on a number of occasions.[ii] 

Abbas did not repeat Palestinian demands for resuming bilateral talks with Israel, namely explicit Israeli assurances on a two-state end-goal and a full cessation of construction in Israeli West Bank settlements. Rather, he said that what was required was to discuss the six permanent status issues with the Israeli government, without which “there will be no progress.”[iii] Since returning, Abbas has said he wants talks to resume by early July.[iv] 

Netanyahu has for some time maintained his readiness to return to the negotiating table.  In a separate but related move last week, he dispatched his point man on Palestinian relations, Yitzhak Molcho, and a small team to London to meet US special envoy George Mitchell and other American officials, and follow up meetings are expected this week.[v]  The meetings have focused on the issues of the Iranian nuclear threat and disputed West Bank settlements but are no doubt also paving the way for direct Israeli-Palestinian talks in the near future.

In their meeting, both Abbas and Obama emphasised the security improvements being made in the West Bank in coordination with US General Keith Dayton.  Obama also referred in his meeting with Abbas to the long-running problem of incitement against Israel, which the PA needs to counter. He expressed hope that “constructive talks” between Israelis and Palestinians would resume, adding that he would unveil more about US policy in his forthcoming Cairo speech to the Arab and Muslim world.[vi]

The challenges facing Abbas

Perhaps the most critical issue for private discussion in Washington was Abbas’s difficult political situation, and how best the US can assist him. The moderate Palestinian camp tends to talk frankly about how Palestinian national aspirations are harmed by the split between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.  Abbas’s chief of staff, Rafiq Husseini, told the Washington Post last week that “When he [Abbas] is talking to the American administration, and the areas under his rule are divided, it does not bode well.”[vii] He added that the PA president is ready to reach a deal with Israel, but Hamas’s reaction to the Abbas visit illustrates his domestic difficulties. The Islamist group’s spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, reiterated that the Palestinian president’s term had ended in January and that “he no longer represents the Palestinian people”. He also expressed contempt for the Roadmap that was “rejected by the Palestinian [militant] factions,” and maintained that Hamas would not accept any agreement signed by Abbas.[viii]

With Abbas’s legitimacy questioned, former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei has stated that “[a] national unity government of Fatah and Hamas is a precondition for peace with Israel.”[ix]  But prospects for some form of internal reconciliation have worsened as a result of the violent clashes which occurred in the West Bank over the weekend. PA police killed a senior Hamas commander, Mohammad Samman, and his deputy, in a raid on a Hamas hideout and weapons store in the town of Qalqilya. Hamas’s Damascus bureau has responded by calling on Palestinians to fight the PA as though they were fighting Israel.[x] The Egyptian-brokered dialogue, due to resume on 5 July, can be expected to collapse if the violence escalates further. 

Abbas already indicated his lack of faith in the reconciliation talks by reappointing Salam Fayyad as Palestinian prime minister before travelling to Washington. Fayyad now heads a new government that includes Fatah and is not recognised by Hamas.[xi] Even if a new interim arrangement can be forged between the factions, it will merely paper over deep fractures until elections are held next January.

It is far from clear who would win Palestinian presidential or Legislative Council elections at present, though leading Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki believes there is a chance of victory for Ismail Haniyeh, the most popular Hamas leader.[xii]  If the election process remains stalled (mainly for fear of a Hamas victory) a major constitutional crisis would result, and Abbas could be targeted.  According to Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff of Haaretz, “The PA has long been warning of a Hamas attempt to assassinate Abbas or Fayyad.”[xiii]  Their downfall would be perceived as a major setback by all those who favour a moderate course.  As such, the US is interested in strengthening Abbas’s legitimacy and the PA’s capacity as quickly as possible, hence the sense of urgency for tangible progress which came out of the Obama-Abbas meeting.

Building external support

Obama has embarked on a multi-pronged strategy to try to bolster Abbas, involving all the major players. His own administration is committed to helping the PA continue the security reforms it has begun to introduce. Despite the successful US led mission to train PA forces, many observers fear that Abbas’s weak grip on the West Bank is held in place by the IDF, and the US is keen to ensure that Abbas is strengthened in this regard.  From Israel, the US wants to see concessions on the ground in the West Bank, though Obama appreciates that Netanyahu has a tough battle ahead of him among his coalition partners, and he is allowing some time for Netanyahu to work policy through the Israeli government.[xiv]  For its part, Israel wants to focus on economic development through major West Bank infrastructure projects, including those that Tony Blair has been initiating, funded by international donors.

Obama knows that the extent to which both Abbas and Netanyahu can deliver is limited by their own domestic political constraints.  Therefore, he is looking to the international community and especially the Arab world to shore up economic and political backing for the PA and offer a more comprehensive peace package.[xv]  Notably, a trip to Riyadh for talks with Saudi King Abdullah has been added to his itinerary this week, in which he will also visit Jordan before travelling to Cairo on Thursday.

Both Abbas and Obama made reference to the Saudi-initiated Arab Peace Initiative during their meeting. Netanyahu also spoke very positively last week about Obama’s efforts to induce steps towards normalisation between the Arab states and Israel. He sees potential for both strengthening existing ties with Jordan and Egypt and widening what he refers to as the “circle of peace,”[xvi] which would incorporate other key Arab states as partners in the process. This clearly will not be plain sailing. In an interview this week, Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit rejected the idea of Arab states gradually normalising relations with Israel in a synchronised fashion, saying each would do so “according to its own considerations,”[xvii] and none would be likely to act before Israel makes the territorial concessions they demand. So for the US, it will take perseverance, because no one will move far without reciprocity. But Washington anticipates unprecedented flexibility, owing to the shared concern among Western-friendly actors in the region over Iran’s nuclear threat and its negative influence across the region.

Conclusion

President Abbas has returned from his trip to Washington with a sure sense that the new US president is truly determined to advance the Middle East peace process in the interests of both the Palestinian and Israeli peoples. This is a genuine source of encouragement to him at an increasingly difficult time for him domestically. The Palestinian internal political deadlock, for which there is no quick fix, remains a major hurdle to a substantive diplomatic breakthrough with the State of Israel. Even if reconciliation talks do produce a short-term, transitional unity government, the inter-factional power struggle between Hamas and Fatah will continue.

Abbas has huge challenges ahead of him in terms of reforming the Palestinian Authority, restoring his legitimacy, and trying to build a cohesive Palestinian society. For this he needs external support, which the US has promised to deliver. But Abbas cannot afford to remain passive, and expect all the concessions to come from Netanyahu.[xviii]  Obama is looking for constructive action by all the players in the region.

 

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[i] Tom Baldwin, ‘President Obama’s first call ‘was to President Abbas”, The Times, 22 January 2009.

[ii] ‘Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Speech at the Knesset Special Session’,  27 May 2009; Prime Minister’s Office.  See, also, David Horovitz and Amir Mizroch, ‘The world according to Lieberman’, The Jerusalem Post, 28 April 2009.

[iii] Office of the Press Secretary, ‘Remarks By President Obama and President Abbas of the Palestinian Authority in Press Availability’, The White House, 28 May 2009.

[iv] ‘Abbas expects progress in peace talks’, The Jerusalem Post, 31 May 2009.

[v] Other Israeli delegates included new National Security Adviser Uzi Arad, Defence Ministry chief of staff Mike Herzog and Intelligence Minister Dan Meridor.  The US contingent included Mitchell’s deputy, David Hale, head of the National Security Council’s Middle East Desk, Daniel B. Shapiro, and State Department deputy legal adviser Jonathan Schwartz.

[vi] Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, op. cit.

[vii] Abbas’s Credibility Problem, Howard Schneider, The Washington Post, 27 May 2009

[viii] ‘Hamas will not recognize any agreement signed by Abbas’, Tehran Times, 27 May 2009; Jake Tapper, ‘With Questions About His Ability to Negotiate, Abbas Comes to White House with Demands’, ABC News, 28 May 2009; Ali Waked, Hamas says disappointed with Abbas-Obama meeting, YNet News, 30 May 2009.

[ix] Akiva Eldar, ‘The price of peace’, Haaretz, 26 May 2009.

[x] Avi Issacharoff, ‘Hamas urges Palestinians to fight PA like they would Israel’, Haaretz, 1 June 2006.

[xi] Kevin Libin, The illusion of a ‘two-state solution’, National Post, 27 May 2009.

[xii] Polls in the last few months show fluctuations in relative support for Abbas vis-à-vis Gaza-based Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.  See Mohammed Assadi, ‘Most Palestinians want unity government, poll finds’, Reuters, 27 May 2009. Khalil Shikaki, ‘Vote Fatah (or Hamas)’, New York Times, 20 May 2009.

[xiii] Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, ‘The PA’s newfound confidence’, Haaretz, 1 June 2009.

[xiv] Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, op. cit.

[xv] Ibid.

[xvi] Herb Keinon, ‘PM to meet Abbas after US policy review’, The Jerusalem Post, 28 May 2009.

[xvii] Zvi Bar’el, ‘Egypt rejects U.S. plan for Arab-Israeli normalization’, Haaretz, 1 June 2009.

[xviii] See, for instance, ‘Palestinians expect Obama peace push will unseat Netanyahu’, Haaretz, 29 May 2009.