BICOM

Key points

• The uprising in Syria has now entered its fourth week and continues to spread. President Assad has decisively rejected the possibility of major reform, and now relies heavily on the loyalty of the Syrian security forces to sustain his regime.
• Syria appears to be facing a protracted period of strife, rather than a rapid leadership change, as took place in Tunisia and Egypt. To survive, the regime may escalate the repression of protest.
• Ongoing unrest probably removes any immediate prospect of revived negotiations between Israel and Syria. Yet it also stands to weaken the Iranian regional alliance, which is Israel’s main strategic concern.

Syria: latest developments

Anti-regime protest in Syria has now entered its fourth week, with no signs of dissipating. Large scale clashes took place over the weekend between government forces and demonstrators in a number of locations in Syria. At least 25 protestors were killed during rallies in Deraa in the south of the country. On Saturday, security forces opened fire on mourners attending funerals for slain protestors. Protests also spread last week from mostly Sunni regions to the Kurdish cities of Qamishli and Hassakah. At least 170 people are now thought to have been killed.

Media reports suggest that the regime may be preparing a major crackdown on protests. Two special forces’ battalions are reported to be preparing for deployment in Damascus. The Fourth Armored division, under the command of Maher Assad, the president’s brother, is reported to be have been deployed around Deraa. This exclusively Alawi force originated in unites that played the key role in the bloody suppression of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in 1982.

What may happen next?

In private conversation, many Syrian oppositionists are currently claiming that the protestors have already won the most important victory, breaking the barrier of fear that reigned in the country for decades. As such, the fall of the Assad regime is now considered only a matter of time. However, the regime still holds a number of ‘cards’ before its fall becomes inevitable.

First, the demonstrations are sizeable and stretch across the country, but they do not yet constitute a mass popular movement. Syrians are still intimidated by the ruthlessness of the state security forces, and refrain from entering protests in large numbers. As long as protests continue at this intensity, Assad may consider that he can maintain a policy of repression and containment, and wait the protestors out.

Secondly, the Assad regime relies on the support of the Syrian Alawi minority. Shia Alawis constitute about 12% of the population of Syria, which is 75% Sunni Muslim. Assad has staffed the most senior sections of the security forces with Alawis, often related to him through clan or family ties. These elements are likely to remain loyal to Assad to preserve their privileged status.

Thirdly, the Syrian regime is aided by its close alliance with Iran. Today, Damascus constitutes a key lynchpin in the Iranian system of alliances in the region. This means Syria is less likely to face serious western threats of intervention. Key European governments and UN officials strongly denounced the Syrian regime for the deadly crackdown, an indication that the international community is not oblivious to the events in Syria. However, it is hard to see how these statements lead to concrete action, which could potentially spark confrontation with Syria’s allies in Iran, Lebanon and Gaza. The Syrian regime has already demonstrated its willingness to use terrorist proxies as a tool of policy, as demonstrated by its support for Hezbollah during the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

Given these factors, Syria appears to be in for a protracted period of strife ahead, rather than a rapid change of leadership, as took place in Tunisia and Egypt. The final result of the confrontation cannot be predicted, but it can be said with some confidence that Assad is unlikely to quietly accept defeat.

What does the Syrian unrest mean for Israel?

Although there have been reports that US officials, particularly Senator John Kerry, have sought to reopen the Israeli-Syrian diplomatic channel, the internal dissent in Syria is likely to reduce any prospect of renewed negotiations between Syria and Israel. The Assad regime will be busy with survival in the upcoming period, and is therefore unlikely to seek major diplomatic initiatives. However, the beleaguered situation of the regime does raise the possibility of increased regional tensions.

If unrest further threatens his regime, Assad may seek a provocation against Israel as a way of diverting attention from domestic strife. This would be a high risk strategy for Syria, since its conventional forces are no match for Israel’s. But it is worth noting that the use of proxy military organisations as instruments of provocation is a noted characteristic of Syrian policy. Syria domiciles the leaderships of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and a host of smaller Palestinian paramilitary groups, which could be mobilised to heat up the Israeli-Syrian or the Israeli-Lebanese front.

Despite the uncertainty, from Israel’s point of view, there are possible positive elements deriving from Assad’s challenges. Iran and its regional allies have sought to use the Arab unrest to expand their influence in the Gulf, Egypt and the Gaza Strip. At first, their willingness for greater repression appeared to make them immune. However, it is now clear that the willingness to use violence does not render pro-Iranian regimes invulnerable to internal unrest.

The weakening of the Assad regime would constitute a very serious blow to Iranian regional ambitions. Official Iranian propaganda, aware of this, is currently maintaining that Saudi Arabia and Jordan are behind the unrest in Syria.

It is important to note that Assad’s attempt to portray his regime as a key opponent of Israel is disputed by much of the Sunni opposition to his rule. For example, Sunni oppositionists have characterised the quiet on the Golan Heights is a mark of Assad’s acquiescence to Israel. The Assad regime, while a leading backer of groups engaged in asymmetrical warfare, has been careful to keep its own border with Israel quiet. A new, genuinely ideological Sunni regime might lack this inclination toward caution.

It is not possible to predict with any degree of confidence the outcome of the current unrest in Syria. But whatever the eventual outcome, it is appropriate to conclude any observation or analysis of current events in Syria by acknowledging the great courage and determination of the protestors, who are currently engaging in demanding their rights from one of the most brutal and repressive regimes in the world.