BICOM

Key Points

• US special envoy George Mitchell has spent the last few days in the region presenting new ideas to Israeli and Palestinian leaders to get talks moving.
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to stress that he wishes to renew diplomatic talks, and has become increasingly frustrated with the lack of reciprocity or diplomatic reward for the positive steps he has taken. There is concern in Israel that the Palestinian Authority (PA) has made a strategic decision to refuse to negotiate simply as a way of trying to reap greater concessions prior to talks.
• The Palestinian Authority has been resisting a return to talks, and its relations with the US have become more strained as a result. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas fears that entering into negotiations would be exploited by Hamas domestically, but the bottom line for the US is that the diplomatic process needs to be restarted.
• Last week in Washington, Foreign Secretary David Miliband referred to diplomatic talks as ‘the only prospect of Israelis and Palestinians finding a way to live side by side in peace’. However, to get talks moving, the international community will need to find a way of persuading Abbas to return to the table, despite the issue of, as Obama put it recently, ‘Hamas looking over his shoulder’.

Introduction

US Middle East envoy George Mitchell has spent the last few days in the region as part of ongoing efforts by the Obama administration to recommence the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Negotiations have been stalled since the end of 2008. This was Mitchell’s first visit since last November, when Israel announced a ten-month moratorium on West Bank settlement construction in order to facilitate the renewal of talks. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred positively to new proposals from the Americans, but no significant developments have been announced. This analysis looks at the context of Mitchell’s visit and the dangers of a protracted stalemate.

Shifting expectations

At the turn of 2010, there was a degree of optimism that peace talks may resume around this time. This followed Israel’s implementation of the freeze on construction inside West Bank settlements, and some stepping up of diplomatic activity involving Cairo. Egyptian Foreign minister, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, offered rare public praise for Netanyahu, stating that the Israeli premier had discussed positions which ‘surpassed’ expectations and indicated a seriousness about renewing the diplomatic process.

By the time of Mitchell’s current visit, however, the expectations of Israeli and American diplomats had diminished. Abbas continues to argue that he has been cornered by the way the Obama administration handled the issue of Israeli settlements last year. In a 22 December interview with the London-based Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat, he recalled telling US officials at the UN in September, ‘You put me on top of a tree, and now you ask me for a solution, and to climb down.’ He continued, ‘Obama laid down the condition of halting the settlements completely. What could I say to him? Should I say this is too much?’

Obama appeared to acknowledge mistakes in the US strategy when reflecting on his first year in office last week. He told TIME magazine that ‘If we had anticipated some of [the] political problems on both sides earlier, we might not have raised expectations as high.’

Senior diplomatic sources report that relations between the US and the PA have become increasingly strained by Abbas’s continued refusal to enter peace talks. Following Abbas’s meeting with Mitchell last Friday, veteran Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat conspicuously stressed to the media that there was no crisis in relations with Washington. The idea that US-Palestinian relations might be troubled is a marked shift from this time last year, when it was reported that Obama’s first phone call to a foreign statesman upon entering the Oval Office was to Abbas.

‘Strategic’ refusal to enter talks

So far the Palestinians have stuck to the position that Abbas has adhered to repeatedly, that peace talks with Israel would not resume without a complete freeze on Israeli construction in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Abbas fears that revising his stance would play into Hamas’s hands, which is why domestically it is so important for him to avoid being perceived as ‘climbing down’. He continues to hold open the option of a unity agreement with Hamas, despite repeated failures to reach such an agreement. The bottom line for the US is that the talks need to resume. They see progress on this issue to be linked to a wider agenda to undermine the influence of Iran. US impatience is growing, therefore, as the Palestinians continue to rebuff them. The Egyptians have also reportedly put very heavy pressure on Abbas to return to negotiations.

Netanyahu continues to stress that he is eager to resume peace talks immediately, without preconditions. His frustration has become palpable as he feels that his words and deeds are not being reciprocated by the Palestinians, and that the price he is being asked to pay just to bring Abbas back to the table keeps rising. The US is now asking Israel to offer further confidence-building gestures to the Palestinians outside the context of negotiations, including giving control of greater proportions of West Bank territory to the PA. During Mitchell’s visit, Netanyahu called on the Palestinians to ‘stop wasting time’. As far as Netanyahu is concerned, he has demonstrated his commitment to the two-state principle by declaring his acceptance of a Palestinian state, agreeing to a settlement moratorium, and lifting hundreds of roadblocks and checkpoints in the West Bank to facilitate economic development. Abbas’s continuing refusal to negotiate – despite efforts to persuade him to do so by the US, Egypt, Israeli President Shimon Peres and others – has led Netanyahu to believe that the Palestinians have adopted ‘a strategy of refusing to negotiate’.

Israeli President Peres has also warned Abbas that continuing the deadlock in negotiations is ‘playing with fire’ because it could lead to a third intifada. This does not relate to a specific threat so much as a general sense that the political vacuum is liable to lead to violence sooner or later.

Israel feels that Abbas is placing entirely unrealistic preconditions on talks and is exploiting international prejudice against the Netanyahu government in order to wrestle ever increasing concessions from Israel before talks commence. Despite the fact that that Israel has made concessions on the ground and agreed to talks without preconditions, and the Palestinians are refusing to come to the table, it is Israel that continues to be under pressure internationally. Abbas has used threats to resign to deter the international community from putting pressure on him. Netanyahu argues that were he to set similar preconditions he would be told that this was ‘absurd’ and that he was not really interested in peace.

Netanyahu has long argued the importance of reciprocity. He feels he has already given without getting in return. Confidence-building gestures from the Arab world have not materialised. In the face of a strategic refusal to talk on the part of the Palestinians, it is unclear what more Israel would be prepared to give at this stage, or indeed what would actually work in terms of jumpstarting talks. The idea of further gestures, such as the release of Palestinian prisoners or the transfer of some parts of the West Bank to greater Palestinian security control, are therefore unlikely for now, certainly without a firm Palestinian commitment to return to the table.

In addition, Netanyahu is likely to have old political allies on the American right advising him not to give into Obama’s demands for more Israeli concessions, especially given the President’s weakened position domestically. There is a danger that the weakening of Obama politically, and the cool international response to the Israeli Prime Minister’s gestures so far, will discourage further conciliatory moves on Netanyahu’s part.

Conclusion

Uncertainty about when and how the peace process will resume is a cause for concern internationally. In a joint press briefing with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at the State Department last week, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband spoke about restarting talks as ‘the only prospect of Israelis and Palestinians finding a way to live side by side in peace’. He is due to meet Abbas in London this week. Many feel that Abbas will be persuaded to recommence negotiations sooner or later. Abbas’s diplomatic connections are his strongest asset within Palestinian society and he relies on international support. But as long as the weight of international pressure rests on Israel, Abbas has little incentive to face up to domestic opposition from Hamas and come to the table.