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Analysis

BICOM Briefing: Gaza Situation Update 1 January 2009

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  • Moderate Arabs direct criticism at Hamas for current situation.
  • UK rejects Libyan UN ceasefire resolution as ‘one-sided’.
  • Over 100 Hamas rockets hit Israel Wednesday; Ashdod and Beersheva targeted again.
  • Israel continues air operations against rockets; ground forces stand ready.

Key statements

  • Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (31/12): “It is important to understand that Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip a few years ago in order to create a vision of peace. The Gaza Strip should have been the beginning of a Palestinian state, comprising the Gaza Strip and the West Bank as well, but instead of the creation of something that gives hope to the Palestinian people, as well as to the Israeli people, Hamas took control, after a coup against Abu Mazen and his group, and has been abusing the situation in order to target Israel.”
  • Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (31/12): “Let’s say we unilaterally stopped and a few days from now a barrage fell on Ashkelon… Do you understand the consequences in Israel and the region? For Israeli deterrence, for Israeli measures… If the conditions mature and we think they offer a solution that ensures a better security situation for southern Israel, then we will consider the matter. We aren’t there yet.”
  • Prince Saud al-Faisal of Saudi Arabia (31/12): “This terrible massacre would not have happened if the Palestinian people were united behind one leadership… Your Arab brothers cannot extend to you the hand of real help, if you do not extend the hand of affection to each other.”
  • Hamas leader, Osama Mazini (31/12): “The people of Gaza are waiting to see the Zionist enemy in Gaza to tear them into pieces of flesh.”

Situation on the ground

  • Hamas continued to attack Israeli towns and cities with rockets yesterday and today. On Wednesday, over 100 rockets and mortars were fired, many of which were long range grad rockets. As of 2pm on Thursday, 21 rockets and mortars had been fired, including Grads with a range of about 40 kilometres landing in Beersheva and around Ashdod.
  • Yesterday and into Thursday Israel continued its operations, focusing on Hamas and other militants’ rocket firing capabilities. They hit storage and launch sites for Grad missiles and Qassam rockets located in a mosque in Gaza City. The Israeli Air Force also targeted weaponry manufacturing and storage facilities in southern Gaza, including those affiliated with Islamic Jihad. Other targets included smuggling tunnels, a Hamas outpost and training camp in the Gaza City area, various other rocket launching sites, several of which were underground, and loaded Grad launchers. Ground forces are ready for a limited incursion if necessary.

International engagement

  • Various diplomatic initiatives are underway. Tzipi Livni has travelled to Paris and Israel has reiterated its aim is for a permanent improvement in security for the south of Israel.
  • At an Arab League meeting in Cairo, Prince Saud al-Faisal of Saudi Arabia followed Egyptian and moderate Palestinians in implicitly blaming Hamas for the conflict for rejecting proposals for Palestinian reconciliation. “This terrible massacre would not have happened if the Palestinian people were united behind one leadership,” he said.
  • At the UN Security Council, both Britain and the United States rejected a ceasefire resolution tabled by Libya on behalf of the Arab League as unbalanced. British UN Ambassador John Sawers called the resolution “one-sided” but told reporters that a balanced resolution would have “a good chance of support” in the council.

Daily tally of rockets and mortars fired from Gaza since Hamas unilaterally renounced ceasefire.

  • January 1 (by 2pm) – 21 including rockets mortars and longer range Grads
  • December 31 -over 100 (precise figure not yet available)
  • December 30- 70 rockets
  • December 29 – 80 rockets (approximate figure)
  • December 28 – 40 rockets and mortar rounds, including two long-range Grad missiles.
  • December 27 – 110 rockets and mortar rounds, including one Grad-Katyusha missile.
  • December 26 – 25 mortar rounds
  • December 25 -7 Qassam rockets, one Grad missile and 9 mortar rounds.
  • December 23 & 24 – 33 rockets (Grad-Katyushas and Qassams), 37 mortar shells
  • December 22 – 2 Qassams, 1 mortar
  • December 21 – 19 Qassams, 3 mortars
  • December 19 & December 20 – 10 Qassams, 24 mortars

For a daily tally of rockets and mortars fired into Israel, see: BICOM Statistics: Total number of identified rocket and mortar shell hits since 2001 and daily tally for 2008.

Humanitarian issues

  • 12 seriously wounded and critically ill Palestinians and their escorts entered Israel for treatment on Wednesday, with the possibility that more will follow today.
  • 96 trucks carrying 2500 tonnes of aid entered the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, following a similar number on Tuesday. The World Food Programme informed the Israeli government that its warehouses in Gaza were full.
  • The extent of Israel’s effort to transfer aid is illustrated by the fact that the daily quantity of aid is above that even during the ceasefire. Typically during the ceasefire 70 or 80 truckloads would enter, whilst now the daily totals are 90 to 100.

Further Information

  • For links to the latest BICOM’s Analysis on the purposes of the Gaza operation, click here.
  • For a fuller background briefing on humanitarian access and terrorism in Gaza, click here.