BICOM

Key Points

• Israel is expected to hold off the next stage of military operations, pending ongoing talks and a possible diplomatic breakthrough in Cairo.
• Preventing the rearming of Hamas remains the focus of talks for a sustainable ceasefire.
• There are signs of splits in Hamas’s leadership, after Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, declares interest in Egyptian ceasefire.
• Foreign Office Minister Bill Rammell has noted the UK government’s long-held concerns about the role that Iran is playing.

Key statements

Foreign Secretary David Miliband rejects equation of Hamas and Israel (12/1): “There is and can be no equivalence.  Hamas have shown themselves over a number of years ready to be murderous in word and deed.  Their motif is ‘resistance’ and their method includes terrorism.  Israel is meanwhile a thriving, democratic state with independent judiciary.” 

Foreign Secretary David Miliband on the situation in Gaza (12/1): “The immediate trigger for Israeli military action on 27 December was the end of the truce.  Hamas refused to extend the lull, and instead fired almost 300 rockets into Israel between 19 and 27 December.  Those rockets – and the hundreds fired since – were a cruel choice by Hamas to target Israeli civilians and to reject again the fragile peace negotiations that had been taking place between the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli government since the Annapolis Conference in late 2007.”

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Israel’s conditions for halting Operation Cast Lead (12/1): “We want to end the operation when the two conditions we have demanded are met: ending the rocket fire and stopping Hamas’s rearmament. If these two conditions are met, we will end our operation in Gaza.”

Israel‘s Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni on Israel’s objectives in the current stage (13/1): “With this operation, Israel is clarifying that in the same manner it holds a dialogue with moderates, it uses force against extremists. Israel has made it clear that it will not tolerate a situation of attacks against us, and I know that the world’s leadership understands this. This time I know there is a new and more significant understanding, that in addition to the need to stop the rocket fire, the world understands that an effective deterrent to the smuggling operations that arm the Hamas must be put in place.”

Situation on the ground

IDF troops continued to act against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, encircling Gaza City. However, as yet they are holding off from the potential ‘third phase’ of the operation, which would see a deeper and longer incursion into Palestinian population centres in search of Hamas militants. On Monday night, the Israeli Air Force hit numerous targets, including 15 tunnels on the Rafah border area, over 10 launching sites and weapons storage facilities. Hamas operatives located in a hotel, in a house and in a mosque were also targetted.

An IDF officer was severely wounded when an explosive device was detonated as he entered a house in Gaza. Two other soldiers were lightly injured from gunfire in the northern region of the strip. IDF reports suggest that IDF forces were able to target 30 Hamas combatants since last night.

Hamas continued to attack Israeli towns and cities with rockets yesterday and today. Twenty-four rockets were launched yesterday, including strikes which caused casualties in Ashkelon and Sderot. By late Tuesday afternoon, a further 25 rockets and mortars had been fired from Gaza. One of the rockets directly hit a school in Ashkelon, which was luckily empty at the time. This has been the ninth school attacked since the beginning of Operation Cast Lead.

Israel continues to facilitate the passage of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and to operate three-hour humanitarian lulls in the fighting to enable the secure passage of aid to civilians. Around 120 trucks entered on Monday and approximately 100 were due to enter on Tuesday. 

Diplomatic developments

On Monday night, a recorded speech of Ismail Haniyeh was broadcast on Gaza television, in which he expressed readiness to engage with any ceasefire proposal. While he declared at the same time that “Gaza will not break – our victory over the Zionists is close,” the speech has nevertheless been interpreted as a sign of distress within Hamas’s Gaza-based political leadership. However, the Damascus-based political leadership of Hamas seems less ready to compromise, apparently still trying to salvage a political victory.

Today Hamas leaders met in Egypt again with Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman, as part of ongoing efforts to bring an end to the fighting. Hamas’s deputy leader Moussa Abu Marzouk told Al-Jazeera that the Egyptian proposal is not acceptable as it stands. Egypt is thought to be applying heavy pressure on Hamas – in essence making clear to the movement that its must accept the ceasefire or face the possibility of the downfall of its regime in Gaza, should Israel begin the third phase of its military operation by entering deeper into populated areas. Hamas continues to reject the possibility of an international force that will monitor the Egypt-Gaza border, and also objects to a clause calling for the cessation of smuggling of arms. However, Egyptian media reports this morning suggest that the group may agree to a force of Turkish monitors, who would be posted along the border to prevent smuggling activity.

Answering MPs’ questions in the House of Commons on Tuesday, Foreign Office Minister Bill Rammell noted the UK Government’s long-held concerns about the negative role that Iran is playing.

Egyptian President Mubarak and chief Egyptian mediator Omar Suleiman flew on Tuesday to Saudi Arabia to brief Saudi King Abdullah. Egypt, Jordan and the Saudis have so far refrained from openly siding with Hamas, with some officials even expressing criticism at the Islamic group’s actions that have led to the deterioration of the past weeks. This stance has caused a severe rift between these governments and the regimes of Iran and Syria, who are supporting and harbouring Hamas. “King Abdullah, the puppet king of Saudi Arabia, is not expected to ignore the demands of his American and Zionist masters and frown at what is going on in Gaza,” read a column in Iran’s most conservative newspaper, Kayhan, which is aligned with Ayatollah Khamenei. The paper also said, “one cannot expect Hosni Mubarak, who has on several occasions demonstrated his subservience to the Zionists, to open the Rafah crossing for the disaster-struck people of Gaza.”

A positive sign for the prospects of the talks are reports that Amos Gilad, Israel’s senior official engaged in the ceasefire talks, is ready to return to Cairo to engage in additional talks. Gilad will take part in this once Hamas has given its answer regarding the Egyptian proposals for a ceasefire.

 

Tally of missiles, rockets and mortar shells fired from Gaza (as of 13 January).

• Since 2001, total number of identified rocket and mortar shell hits: 8,808
• Since Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza in August 2005: 6,116
• Since 4 November 2008: 1,014
• Since the ceasefire ended on 19 December 2008: 949
• Since Operation Cast Lead began on 27 December 2008: 794

For a daily tally of rockets and mortars fired into Israel, see BICOM Statistics: Total number of identified rocket and mortar shell hits since 2001; daily tally for 2008 and 2009. Please note the new web link.

 

Humanitarian aid to Gaza

Israel is conducting the latest operation while making sure that food, basic supplies and medical needs are constantly transferred into the Gaza Strip. Israel maintains ongoing contact with humanitarian agencies and enables the constant flow of goods and supplies into the strip.

Since the beginning of operation in Gaza, 926 truckloads (22,046 tons) have been transferred at the request of international organisations, the Palestinian Authority and various governments. Israel does not wish to see the humanitarian situation in the strip deteriorate. Preparations are underway to facilitate further shipments expected to arrive in the coming days.

Humanitarian aid details: last three days

13 January 2009

Approximately 100 trucks of aid were expected to enter the Gaza Strip.

12 January 2009

A total of 120 trucks carrying 3,129 tons of humanitarian aid including basic food commodities, medical supplies and medication were transferred to the Gaza Strip.

11 January 2009

91 trucks carrying food, medical equipment and other humanitarian aid entered Gaza via the Kerem Shalom crossing.

There are efforts to repair the electricity system in Gaza. Of the ten Israeli lines (which supplies around 70% of electricity), six are operative and four are being repaired. The Palestinian power station (20%) is running intermittently. Both Egyptian lines (10%) are functional.

There is no transfer of fuel into Gaza from Nahal Oz because the tanks on the Gaza side are full and Hamas is refusing to allow the tankers to distribute the fuel. This is a tactic we have seen in the past.

There is a good deal of coordination on humanitarian affairs between Israel and international organisations. COGAT representatives met with the ICRC yesterday to coordinate the movement of ambulances in Gaza. In recent days, Amos Gilad – in his position at COGAT – has met with UNWRA director Karen AbuZayd, UNSCO head Robert Serry and the ICRC’s representative.  

Further Information

• To visit our new Operation Cast Lead section on our website, click here. It contains daily situation updates, analyses, useful facts and figures, and videos. You can also find the section by going to our homepage and clicking on the Operation Cast Lead button on the right-hand side.
• For a full news review for 13 January, click here
• For BICOM’s special report on Access and Terrorism in Gaza, click here.