BICOM

Key Points

• Iran has revealed the existence of a secret nuclear plant.

• US, British and French leaders have severely criticised the latest revelations and unconditionally demand full Iranian cooperation with IAEA inspections. President Obama, who has been leading a policy of engagement with the Iranians, has now presented an adamant stance that marks a significant change of tone and conveys a sense of urgency on the matter.

• Iranian representatives will meet with the P5+1 countries (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) on Thursday, 1 October about its nuclear development programme. Iran’s decision to release the information regarding the secret plant only days before this high-profile meeting is seen as intended to undermine criticism of its clandestine operations. This will undoubtedly sharpen the standoff over Iran’s nuclear activity.

• This briefing outlines the latest events and statements, and will be followed early next week by a comprehensive analysis of the latest developments.

 

The latest developments

• Iran has admitted that it has been constructing a covert nuclear plant near the city of Qom. According to US intelligence officials, the plant is designed to hold approximately 3,000 centrifuges for the enrichment of uranium. It is said to be an underground facility at a mountain formerly used as a missile site by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, approximately 160 km south of Tehran. Construction on the facility reportedly started in mid-2006.

• Iran has acknowledged the existence of a second uranium enrichment plant in a letter sent Monday to the IAEA. Western intelligence agencies were aware of the plant’s existence, though it is unknown how long the site was being monitored. Iran’s letter was sent after the sources who leaked the information were exposed.
• The recent incident reinforces the pattern of Iranian behaviour in its pursuit of nuclear capabilities. In 2002, Iran was forced to admit that it was developing a clandestine nuclear programme after the existence of a nuclear reactor in Natanz was revealed by Iranian opposition sources.

• The latest reports have attracted sharp criticism from President Obama, Prime Minister Brown and President Sarkozy. In a joint public statement made at the G20 summit, the three leaders presented a firm demand to the Iranian regime to act immediately to restore the international community’s confidence in activities related to its nuclear programme. PM Brown reiterated the position that Iran will face ‘further and more stringent sanctions’ if it fails to abide by international demands.

• The extraordinary joint appearance by the three leaders- and President Obama noted that German Chancellor Angela Merkel asked him to convey that she stood with them, as well – adds urgency to the diplomatic situation with Iran regarding its suspected ambition to build a nuclear weapons capacity.

 

Key statements

• President Barack Obama: ‘It is time for Iran to act immediately to restore the confidence of the international community by fulfilling its international obligations. We remain committed to serious, meaningful engagement with Iran to address the nuclear issue through the P5+1 negotiations. Through this dialogue, we are committed to demonstrating that international law is not an empty promise, that obligations must be kept and that treaties will be enforced, and that’s why there’s a sense of urgency about the upcoming meeting on October 1 between Iran, the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. At that meeting, Iran must be prepared to cooperate fully and comprehensively with the IAEA, to take concrete steps to create confidence and transparency in its nuclear programme and to demonstrate that it is committed to establishing its peaceful intentions through meaningful dialogue and concrete actions. To put it simply, Iran must comply with UN Security Council resolutions and make clear it is willing to meets its responsibilities as a member of the community of nations.’
  

• Prime Minister Gordon Brown: ‘The level of deception by the Iranian government, and the scale of what we believe is the breach of international commitments, will shock and anger the entire international community. The international community has no choice today but to draw a line in the sand.’

• French President Nicolas Sarkozy: ‘The six [world powers] will meet with the Iranian representatives in Geneva. Everything – everything – must be put on the table now. We cannot let the Iranian leaders gain time while the motors are running. If by December there is not an in-depth change by the Iranian leaders, sanctions will have to be taken. This is for the peace and stability.’

 

Looking ahead

The latest revelations present the international community with a serious dilemma. On 1 October, representatives of the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) will meet Iranian representatives to discuss the Iranian nuclear programme. The meeting is part of a broader policy of engagement led by the Obama administration in recent months, seeking to resolve the disputes with Tehran through diplomatic channels. However, the latest revelations will deepen the suspicion that Iran’s engagement with the international community is merely an attempt to stall further sanctions until its nuclear programme crosses a critical threshold.

The statement made by the US president today marks a noteworthy change of tone and conveys a clear sense of urgency on the matter. Obama, who has led a policy of rapprochement with the Iranian regime, made clear demands for full Iranian transparency and clarified that the international community will not tolerate the breach of international laws and treaties.

Some analysts are already suggesting that Iran’s revelation of its new nuclear site could, in fact, play in its favour as it heads into next week’s talks. Publishing the information ahead of the 1 October meeting may allow Iran to claim that its activities are transparent and by doing so, undermine possible criticism of its covert activity.

A key question remains regarding the support of Russia and China, whose leaders were not present during the joint statement today. If economic and diplomatic pressure is to succeed, the support of Moscow and Beijing will be crucial. The US has been intensively trying to gain the support of Russia and China on the matter, and the results of these efforts will become apparent in the coming days and weeks. The latest information underlines the need for urgent action by all permanent members of the Security Council, though it is unknown yet what effect this will have on Russian and Chinese policies.

The urgency conveyed by the US, UK and French leaders indicates that Iran continues to divert international scrutiny and refuses to halt the clandestine development of its nuclear capabilities. The meeting on 1 October will clarify whether this urgency will bring about concrete results.

 

Further reading

The New York Times article which broke the news this morning about the secret Iranian facility can be read here.

Related BICOM Analyses:

• BICOM Analysis: Engaging Iran with low expectations, 15 September 2009
• BICOM Analysis: The Middle East Diplomatic Agenda for September, 1 September 2009