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Analysis

BICOM Briefing: Post-Operation Cast Lead update – 2 February 2009

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Key points

  • Rocket and mortar attacks from Gaza have intensified in recent days.
  • During yesterday’s Israeli cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Olmert stated that Israel will not tolerate a return to the situation that existed prior to Operation Cast Lead.
  • PA President Abbas slammed Hamas for its “irresponsible” provocations against Israel. Hamas leader in Damascus Meshaal, meanwhile, met Iranian leaders in Tehran and thanked them for the “important role” Iran played during the Gaza conflict.
  • Egypt has stepped up operations against smuggling along its border with Gaza.        

 

Key statements

 

PA President Mahmoud Abbas slams Hamas for its provocations against Israel (1/2): “Hamas has taken risks with the blood of Palestinians, with their fate, and dreams and aspirations for an independent Palestinian state.”

PA President Mahmoud Abbas slams Hamas for its provocations against Israel (1/2): “Those people (Hamas leaders) gambled with the future of the people, they gambled with the blood of the people, the destiny of the people and the dream of the people. Why? Because of agendas which are not Palestinian.”

PA President Mahmoud Abbas slams Hamas for its provocations against Israel (1/2): “Leadership by sending messages from safe places, to throw people to perdition while you are safe and your families are safe and settled, that is not responsible.”

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warns Hamas after further escalation in the south (1/2): “We will act according to new rules that ensure we will not be dragged into an incessant shoot-out that prevents us from living normal lives in the south.”

Rocket and mortar barrage hits western Negev

Yesterday Israel suffered the heaviest barrage of rocket and mortar attacks since a unilateral ceasefire went into effect more than two weeks ago. A total of four Qassam rockets and 14 mortars hit the western Negev, injuring two Israeli soldiers and a civilian. The shelling of Israeli communities continued this morning with three mortar shells fired toward the Eshkol regional council, though no damage or casualties were reported.

Israel did not respond immediately to the attacks from Gaza, but defence sources said that action is expected in the near future and “everything will depend on the operational opportunity that emerges.” Israeli aircraft operated in Gaza overnight and throughout the morning, targeting Hamas facilities and smuggling tunnels on the Gaza-Egypt border. Israel’s chief of Military Intelligence, Amos Yadlin, told the Israeli cabinet yesterday that the rocket and mortar attacks were being carried out by small Palestinian factions, whom he described as belonging to the loose network of “global jihadists.”

There are currently some disagreements among Israel’s leadership as to the appropriate response to the latest escalation of attacks from Gaza. PM Olmert and Foreign Minister Livni have been supporting a harsher response to the rocket attacks, while Defence Minister Ehud Barak argues that progress in the talks between Egypt and Hamas on a ceasefire should be given a chance.

Media reports over the weekend and this morning suggested that a ceasefire deal may be signed as early as Thursday in Cairo. In parallel with talks between Egypt and Hamas, Israel is holding intensive negotiations with the Egyptians. The head of the security-political bureau at the Defense Ministry, Amos Gilad, told the chief of Egyptian intelligence, General Omar Suleiman, that Israel is rejecting the Egypt-Hamas idea of a new ceasefire which would be limited in time. The current proposal is for a ceasefire lasting between one and one-and-a-half years.

Abbas slams Hamas for “irresponsible” provocations of Israel

Amid ongoing negotiations over a power-sharing agreement that would allow the return of Palestinian security forces to monitor the border crossings on the Gaza-Egypt border and enable their reopening, Palestinian President Abbas slammed Hamas and clarified that the gaps between the sides remain substantial. At a news conference in Cairo, where he was to meet Egyptian President Mubarak today, Abbas accused Hamas of putting the lives and aspirations of Palestinians at risk. The Palestinian leader said that Hamas will have to agree to Fatah’s supremacy in the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) before a deal between the two factions can be struck. Hamas wants to extend its representation in the PLO, which would reduce Fatah’s control over the Palestinian body.

Despite the creation of a Palestinian Authority to govern the territories, the PLO still wields great influence as the internationally recognised “sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people,” including those in refugee camps in Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. Unlike Hamas, it has recognised Israel.

Hamas dismissed Abbas’s statements. “Mahmoud Abbas spoke impulsively, perhaps reflecting the confusion he is living in after the victory of Hamas and the resistance in Gaza. We assure him that we are not begging for dialogue and we are not running after it,” Hamas official Mohamed Nazzal said in Damascus. Nazzal mocked Abbas and the Fatah leadership, accusing them of collaboration with Israel during Operation Cast Lead.  “Abbas and his entourage were waiting (during Israel’s Gaza invasion) for the collapse of Hamas and the resistance to go back to Gaza on Israeli tanks after many of them fled in their underwear in June 2007,” Nazzal said.

Hamas’s Damascus leader Meshaal visited Iran today and praised Tehran for its assistance to Hamas during the recent conflict in Gaza. “Iran has definitely played a big role in the victory of the people of Gaza and is a partner in that victory,” he said.

Hamas’s close ties with the Iranian regime have been cited as one of the main reasons for the group’s isolation by the international community. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel, in addition to the EU and the US, have on various occasions rejected Hamas’s rule in Gaza as an Iranian attempt to stake a claim on Israel’s southwestern border. Egyptian officials have expressed their concern recently at the growing Iranian influence in the region, which threatens the stability of the Egyptian-controlled Sinai Peninsula bordering Gaza.

Egypt sets up new electronic instruments to curb smuggling

An unnamed Egyptian official stated that Egypt installed alarms and surveillance cameras last week along its 14-kilometre border with Gaza to detect the activity of smuggling tunnels. According to the report, this is the first phase of a high-tech security system being installed with US assistance, as part of a bid to bolster Israel’s unilateral ceasefire which brought Operation Cast Lead to an end approximately three weeks ago. The US has pledged $50 million in detection equipment to unearth smuggling tunnels, and US army engineers have been providing technical assistance on the ground.