BICOM

The latest developments

After three weeks of fighting in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli diplomatic-security cabinet is set to approve a unilateral ceasefire this evening.

This proposal has gathered support after Hamas rejected Egyptian proposals for an agreed truce. Commentators in Israel noted that Hamas’s announcement effectively blocked any ability to realise the original Egyptian proposal that dealt a wide range of issues, from the opening of the crossings to addressing internal Palestinian divides.

This short paper briefly examines what gains for Israel and the region could reasonably be claimed if such a ceasefire is agreed by the security cabinet. Clearly, this will be open to much further investigation but this is a first-look.

If a ceasefire was declared this evening, what could Israel realistically claim as achievements against Hamas?

• Re-establishing deterrence.

Israel’s determined actions in the past three weeks have clarified to Hamas that any future attacks will no longer be tolerated and that Israel will provide its citizens with the security they deserve. Israel hopes that this unequivocal reality will persuade Hamas leaders to stop their missile attacks.

Hamas was convinced that its decision to collapse the six-month ceasefire on 19 December would have negligible consequences. After eight years of attacks emanating from the Gaza Strip, the group assumed Israel had lost its ability to respond to the group’s use of terror. Israel’s effort to avoid a confrontation with Hamas for a long period was interpreted as weakness.

Israeli intelligence sources assessed over the weekend that Hamas is likely to reconsider any future attacks in light of Israel’s recent actions, thus pointing to a clear change in the strategic situation on Israel southern border.

• Weakening Hamas’s military infrastructure.

Operation Cast Lead has been extremely successful in confronting Hamas and the extensive military infrastructure the organisation has been developing in recent years. This includes:

-Vast amounts of weapons, explosives and rockets manufacturing facilities;

-A huge system of underground tunnels that have been used for smuggling and underground movement of terrorists;

-Some of Hamas’s forces have been trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. These were considered the leading operatives carrying out many of the rocket attacks against Israel. Many of these operatives have been killed during the fighting in the Zeitun neighbourhood last week.

-Key Hamas figures who have been responsible for the planning and execution of the organisation’s military strategy have been killed, including Hamas interior minister Said Sayyam who was responsible for the group’s rocket launching activity.

The weaker Hamas is, so the increased relative strength of the moderate Palestinian Authority. In future final-settlement negotiations with Israel – leading, it is hoped, towards an independent Palestinian state – the position of the Fatah-led PA will be strengthened.

• Placing the strategic ties between Iran and Hamas on the international agenda.

Hamas’s rule in the Gaza Strip and its relentless efforts to harden its control through a large-scale military built-up, has threatened to change the strategic balance in the region. Iran’s open support for Hamas has turned the Gaza Strip into an Iranian base on Israel’s southern border. As such, Tehran threatened not only Israel’s security, but the stability of the Egyptian-controlled Sinai Peninsula. Egyptian political analyst Magdi Khalil said last week that “Hamas and its masters in Damascus and Teheran want to spread chaos in Egypt. By endorsing the Iranian agenda, Hamas has brought the Iranians to Egypt’s eastern border.”

Israel’s insistence on the issue of arms smuggling has also clarified the extent of this Iranian-Hamas endeavour. A broader regional coalition was needed in order to tackle the various stages of the smuggling project, from its origins in Tehran, through the naval smuggling routes in the Persian Gulf, the assistance of elements in East Africa and the elaborate system of tunnels that has been devised and constructed in the past years. The US, Egypt and EU countries which have been involved in the negotiations over the past two weeks, have been aware of the strategic aspects of this problem and the need to provide real solutions to prevent it.

How this will play out under President-elect Barack Obama remains to be seen.

• Reasserting common interests with moderate Arab states

The divisions in the Arab world between countries that supported Hamas and those who have avoided siding with the group have been apparent from the early stages of the conflict. On the one hand, Hamas received the expected support from Syria and Iran, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia have closely worked with the international community to restore stability to the region, while clearly diminishing Hamas’s standing as a legitimate power. The following examples underscore these efforts:

An agreement between the Palestinian Authority, Israel and Egypt will highlight the growing sense that Hamas’s demands are unacceptable by all those who are directly affected by the situation in Gaza.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia worked behind the scenes to prevent the assembly of the Arab League throughout the conflict. By doing so, it became clear that the Arab world is divided on the matter and that Hamas will not receive unequivocal endorsement.

Egypt made clear that it will not allow Hamas and its supporters in Damascus and Tehran to undermine its leading role in regional affairs. Egypt’s unchallenged role in leading negotiations clarified Cairo’s intention to prevent Iranian attempts to insert its influence into Egypt’s “back yard.”

 What would a unilateral ceasefire include?

After intense diplomatic negotiations between Egypt, the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority and Israel, a unilateral ceasefire would include the following aspects:

• Arms smuggling: Egypt and Israel will enhance cooperation to prevent the renewal of arms smuggling from Iran to Hamas. The prevention mechanism will be based on advanced technological devices for the detection of tunnels, rigorous Egyptian activity against the smuggling networks that operate in the Rafah region and activity of international experts in training and assisting the Egyptian forces in their activity.
• Egyptian-Israeli cooperation: Issues of importance to Israel and Egypt will be coordinated between all sides, including advancing the negotiations over the release of kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit.

The understandings with the Egyptians and the PA have been reached after Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni signed a memorandum of understandings with outgoing US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The American-Israeli pact focuses on a broad effort to tackle smuggling routes that span from Iran, through the Persian Gulf and East Africa, to the Gaza Strip.