BICOM

Key points

 

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has strong ideological convictions which are his natural political and personal default positions, and lead to his perception as a political hawk.
• However, when he was prime minister in the past, he showed on various occasions that he could be a pragmatic leader who responds to international constraints and political necessities.
• He enters the Prime Minister’s Office for the second time in his political career, heading the largest cabinet in Israel’s history.
• Topping the agenda of the new government are the Iranian threat on the foreign and defence front and the international economic turmoil as an immediate priority at home. The absolute key to these two priorities is maintaining Israel’s relations with the US administration.
• In addition to geopolitical and economic challenges, Netanyahu will need to maintain a unity coalition comprised of opposing forces and steer clear of personal controversies.

 

Introduction

 

Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem raises questions about the policies and personalities that will lead Israel’s politics in the coming term. Netanyahu has already indicated that three issues will top his agenda: the Iranian threat on the foreign and defence front, the international economic turmoil as an immediate priority at home, and Israel’s relations with the US administration. At the same time, Netanyahu has made clear that he does not intend to shy away from the Palestinian issue. In addition, Netanyahu wants to prove that unlike many of his predecessors, he has the ability to survive a full four-year term, in itself a remarkable achievement.

 

Heading the largest cabinet in Israel’s history and supported by a coalition that brings together seemingly conflicting political forces (not uncommon in Israeli politics), Netanyahu faces notable political obstacles that may prove to be the main challenge of his premiership. Political commentators often point out that Netanyahu’s failures during his first term in office were the direct result of his blunt style of political management and his inability to shore up broad public support. Netanyahu’s close circle privately insist that the Likud leader is a changed man, that he will not repeat his errors and that his pragmatism and clear-sightedness will prove to be his strongest virtues in the years to come. However, only days after the government was sworn in, Netanyahu already faced widespread media coverage questioning his political management due to seemingly contradictory promises made to different coalition and cabinet members during the coalition negotiations and the formation of his cabinet.

 

Netanyahu’s policies and politics: a traditional, ideological conservative tempered by political pragmatism

 

Ideologically, the new prime minister is rooted in the political right: he is a fiscal conservative who consistently warns against the growing threat of radical Islam and global terror. However, Netanyahu is not a blind follower of ideologies. During two decades of political activity, he has proved his ability to adapt and adjust to the rapidly changing local and international political terrain. Whether due to his own convictions or as a result of external pressures, Netanyahu can show more flexibility on a variety of issues than one might initially presume.

 

Iran

 

Not surprisingly, the Iranian threat tops the new prime minister’s agenda, reflecting the urgent, bipartisan attention this issue receives in Israel. Since the mid-1990s, Netanyahu has been warning against Iran’s dangerous aspirations in the region, its support for extremist organisations and the threat posed by its nuclear ambitions. During his first term, Netanyahu ensured a greater focus among Israeli security branches on the Iranian threat and encouraged the international community to place greater emphasis on Iran rather than on Iraq. Netanyahu strongly believes that allowing Iran to obtain strategic weapons of mass destruction is a ‘red line’ for Israel and should be considered as such by the international community. In a speech given at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, Netanyahu urged world leaders not to be distracted by the urgent economic crisis and realise the magnitude of the Iranian threat. While the world will be able to work its way out of the current economic situation, he said, ‘what is not reversible is the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a fanatic radical regime committed to a pre-medieval view of the world.’[i]

 

While always keen to state the severity of the threat in a straightforward manner, Netanyahu refrains from making bold statements about Israel’s actions on the issue. Nonetheless, recent appointments to his cabinet and inner-circle ‘kitchen cabinet’ provide some indication about the initial, seemingly systematic approach Netanyahu has undertaken to deal with the various aspects of the threat: in addition to Defence Minister and Labour leader Ehud Barak, Netanyahu has appointed former IDF chief of staff Moshe ‘Boogie’ Ya’alon to head the Ministry for Strategic Affairs and Dan Meridor as secret services minister. All three have notable experience in shaping Israel’s strategic agenda and will continue to focus on this issue in their current roles. In addition, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman will represent the government in the joint American-Israel strategic dialogue committee, a central component of the attempt to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Recent statements made by US President Barack Obama supporting restrictions on nuclear proliferation could form the basis for Israeli-American cooperation on this issue. Uzi Arad, a long-time advisor to Netanyahu and now the head of Israel’s National Security Council, will also be an important participant in shaping and implementing Jerusalem’s strategic policy. Interestingly, the first meeting the kitchen cabinet saw the attendance not of Ya’alon or Meridor, but Uzi Arad and Amos Gilad, head of the Defence Ministry’s Diplomatic-Security Bureau.

 

In public, Netanyahu is clear to refer to the Iranian threat through a regional and international prism. This, however, will demand an extensive diplomatic effort that will seek to maintain and strengthen Israel’s relationship with its allies in Washington and in Europe. Foreign Minister Lieberman, for example, is scheduled to tour several EU capitals in May. International cooperation of this sort may not be easy to create, as the new government has already encountered lukewarm reactions from EU and Arab leaders[ii] who are concerned about the new government’s policies on the Palestinian front. The appointment of Yisrael Beitenu leader Lieberman, known for his outspoken right-wing opinions, to head the Foreign Ministry was also received with some reservations around the world. Nevertheless, Netanyahu is convinced that Lieberman, who headed the Strategic Affairs Ministry in Ehud Olmert’s government, will be able to convey the urgency of the Iranian threat. It is thought that in addition to Lieberman, Netanyahu intends to appoint special envoys who will be directly involved in the country’s diplomatic activity, such as attorney Yitzhak Molcho, who is speculated may become Netanyahu’s go-between with the White House.

 

Economic situation

 

Netanyahu’s priority internally will be the handling of the economic downturn, which according to polls tops the concerns of most Israelis at present, even ahead of security issues. During his term as Ariel Sharon’s finance minister (2003-2005), Netanyahu proved himself to be a highly skilled leader of the country’s economy, though his strong fiscally conservative policies antagonised large sectors in Israel, including many traditional supporters of the Likud. Netanyahu’s policies were especially contentious given Israel’s social-democratic history. While it was speculated that Netanyahu would opt to keep the finance portfolio in the Prime Minister’s Office and lead the country through the economic downturn, the new prime minister surprisingly appointed Likud MK and long-time ally Yuval Steinitz for the job. However, the close relationship between the two, Steinitz’s relative inexperience and Netanyahu’s leadership of a new ‘economic strategy cabinet’ will ensure that Netanyahu has the final say on these issues.

 

However, the coalition agreement that secured Labour’s place in Netanyahu’s government may have also created a potential problem for Netanyahu: Ofer Eini, the leader of Israel’s Trade Union (Histadrut), will be part of an ‘economic roundtable’ that will be able to influence the government’s economic policies. Netanyahu may find it hard to consolidate his conservative economic views with Eini’s demands to secure public sector jobs and wages. This may become yet another challenge for Netanyahu’s political management skills.

 

US relations

 

The third issue that heads the new premier’s agenda will be Israel’s relationship with the US administration under President Obama. Netanyahu’s first term, which coincided with that of President Bill Clinton, was characterised by constant disagreements between Jerusalem and Washington over the peace process. Speculation has already been made about the possible differences that may cast a shadow on the relationship between Israel and its most powerful ally. While the Obama administration seems eager to see progress made towards a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Netanyahu believes that as long as the Palestinian leadership is divided and Hamas acts as an Iranian proxy against Israel, efforts must focus on economic improvements in the West Bank and the strengthening of the moderate Palestinian leadership of Mahmoud Abbas. All three main players in the new government – Netanyahu, Barak and Lieberman – are adamant they are going to ‘do’ something ‘serious’ to address the Palestinian issue. Defence Minister Barak has proposed an Israeli peace plan as an equivalent to the Arab peace initiative, though there is scepticism about how this can proceed due to Barak’s small mandate in the Knesset. It remains unclear whether the US approach will be to work towards solving conflicts individually or aim for a larger regional settlement. Beyond policy discrepancies, some have also speculated that Netanyahu’s past disagreements with President Clinton might have an effect on his relationship with the current American secretary of state.

 

The new government has stated it will follow the path set out in the Roadmap peace plan issued by the Quartet in 2002, which outlines a gradual advancement towards a diplomatic solution to the conflict and the creation of an independent Palestinian state. The logic behind the plan fits with Netanyahu’s view that discussions on the final stages of the negotiations are premature at this point, and that the foundations for the final status agreement need to be in place first. During his first term in office, and despite his reservations, Netanyahu remained committed to the Oslo Accords, though he was insistent that the Palestinian side fulfil its obligations before substantial progress could be made. However, with the media now reporting on a critical report by US Lt.-Gen. Paul J. Selva on the Israeli implementation of the Roadmap peace plan, there could be an immediate challenge to Netanyahu’s preferred path.

 

In recent public appearances, Netanyahu has made clear that his government will work towards a ‘workable peace’ with all of Israel’s neighbours and aspire to allow the emergence of Palestinian statehood. However, some differences between the US administration and the Israeli government may surface in the coming months. During her visit to the region in early March, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signalled that one of these issues is likely to be Israel’s construction policies in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.[iii] It is expected that Netanyahu will follow the previous government’s policy, according to which no new settlements are authorised though limited construction in existing settlements is permitted, mostly to serve the natural growth of the local communities. However, recent reports that an agreement between Netanyahu and Lieberman approved the construction of 3,000 new houses in the E1 corridor in east Jerusalem[iv] may present a notable point of contention, to say the least.

 

Despite pledges for early intervention in the region, Washington’s Middle East policy remains vague. Although a number of high-profile political appointments to the US administration were made early on, there is real scepticism about the capacity or will to take some of these issues forward. The appointment of George Mitchell as the special presidential envoy indicated that the Obama administration is interested in seeing progress, but this has yet to be translated into a clear vision. In the coming weeks, Netanyahu will focus much of his attention on securing American support and a positive working relationship between the two leaderships, and is expected to travel to the American capital for his first meeting as prime minister with President Obama on 18 May, once a thorough policy review has been completed in Jerusalem. Educated in prestigious US universities, Netanyahu has an intimate knowledge of the American political system and the dynamics of American public opinion, though he will be very cautious in the extent to which this familiarity will be used.

 

Behind closed doors, Netanyahu is likely to reiterate to his American counterparts the need for realistic and pragmatic policies that will prevent the re-emergence of radical elements in the West Bank and ensure Israel’s security, before any discussion of territorial concessions can take place. At the same time, he will stress that he is not preventing progress towards peace, but he will try to convince his American counterparts that it is unrealistic to discuss an independent Palestinian state until a strong Palestinian leadership is in place. He is on record as saying that the Palestinians must first prove their ability to enforce law and order and fight radical elements, and only then will Israel be able to gradually withdraw its forces – though the report by Lt.-Gen. Selva may challenge this or make it impossible for Netanyahu to take this approach. This can be seen to give credence to the spin Netanyahu, Barak and Lieberman are putting out about their plans to ‘do’ something big on the Palestinian front. In the meantime, Netanyahu will seek to coordinate these efforts with key international figures operating in the region, including the Quartet’s Middle East envoy Tony Blair, with whom Netanyahu has met several times, and US General Keith Dayton, who has been overseeing the training and deployment of the Palestinian security forces in the West Bank.

 

In the past, Netanyahu has shown that he can be a flexible leader and has agreed to carry out significant concessions during negotiations with the Palestinians, often as a result of external pressure but also because of pragmatic considerations. These included the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Palestinian cities, and the Wye River Memorandum signed by him and PA chairman Arafat. Despite his strong political convictions, Netanyahu is likely to pay close attention to the international mood and respond accordingly, precisely because he appreciates the important role this cooperation will play in facing up to the immense challenges of the coming years. 

 

Politics and personalities in Netanyahu’s new government

 

Forming a unity government that brings together centre-left and right-wing parties was of utmost importance for Netanyahu and he started this well before the election. He was willing to pay the price of realising this goal: he now heads the largest cabinet in Israel’s history with over 30 ministerial and deputy ministerial positions, including some that have been especially created to cater for the demands of his coalition partners. By doing so, Netanyahu exposed himself to public criticism over the effect this will have on the already strained state budget at a time of economic downturn. However, it seems that this was a calculated risk Netanyahu had to take to avoid a narrow right-wing government and shore up broad political support. This is an early indication that he learned a lesson from his first term as prime minister when he was leading a narrow rightist coalition. However, in a coalition made up of such opposing forces and big egos, Netanyahu will have to invest time and energy in ensuring that personal quarrels and political scandals do not bring his downfall once again.

 

In the past, Netanyahu was often criticised for his inability to maintain steady working relationships with aides and advisors. His wife, Sara, is known to be one of the most influential figures around the prime minister, an issue that has frustrated many of his political colleagues. It has been pointed out that Netanyahu’s intellectual and analytical skills that have earned him wide respect were not matched with personal charm that would help him defuse tensions with his political partners. By virtue of their personalities, both Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert were able to maintain relatively stable coalitions, even when faced with scathing public criticism. Netanyahu’s success will partly depend on his relations with key figures in his oversized government, including leaders of the different political factions in his coalition and members of his own Likud party. In addition, he will be measured by his ability to avoid embarrassing statements of the sort that haunted and tarnished him during his first term.

 

In this respect, it is interesting to note the apparent close relationship Netanyahu has with Labour leader Barak. Like Netanyahu, Barak is a ‘soloist’ with many admirers of his defence credentials and few who would praise his political demeanour. Beyond the political differences and past rivalries between the two which have narrowed significantly in recent years, Netanyahu also maintains deep reverence for Barak from the time the latter served as his commander in the IDF commando unit Sayeret Matkal. Barak also took part in the special operation to release Israeli hostages in Entebbe in 1976, during which Lt.-Col. Yonatan Netanyahu, Benjamin’s older brother, was killed.

 

However, beyond mutual respect, both have a lot to gain from this symbiotic partnership. Barak’s entry into a right-leaning coalition has ensured him a pivotal role in the country’s leadership, even when it may result in the eventual disappearance of the Labour party as a noteworthy political force. Outside the coalition, Barak would have been overshadowed by Kadima head Tzipi Livni, who was given the leadership of the opposition. For Barak, who celebrated his 67^th birthday in February, this may be the last term in office and his final chance of leaving a mark on the future of the country – though it should be noted that numerous Israeli politicians have been older than that, and Israeli President Shimon Peres is an octogenarian.

 

Labour’s participation in the coalition provided Netanyahu with the validity of a unity government, as opposed to a narrow right-wing coalition that would have been more easily criticised. Netanyahu still bears the political scars from his first term in office when he was scorned by Israel’s ‘old elites’, traditionally affiliated with the upper middle class centre-left. At the time, Netanyahu was seen as a divisive politician who was unable to ‘reach across the isle’; his unity government will enable him to show that at least on this issue, an important political lesson has been learned.

 

Netanyahu will also be measured by his ability to defuse internal tensions within his party. He crossed a substantial first hurdle hours before presenting his government when Silvan Shalom, his key political adversary inside Likud, agreed to join the government. Shalom threatened to remain outside the government if he was not given a leading ministerial position. After allocating many of the high-profile portfolios to his coalition partners, Netanyahu was left with the Finance Ministry, but refused to hand the position over to Shalom. Acknowledging the potential damage internal opposition within the Likud could cause, Netanyahu first isolated Shalom by appointing the latter’s close allies to marginal ministerial positions, which in turn forced Shalom to accept Netanyahu’s proposal to become minister for regional affairs and vice premier.

 

In face-to-face meetings, Netanyahu often comes across as a convincing, yet uncompromising speaker. His chemistry with key political leaders, President Obama first and foremost, will determine to a large extent the reception of his policies, which may not be popular at a time when conservative ideas seem at an all-time low.

 

Conclusion

 

Most believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is driven in this second term as prime minister by the predominant desire to last longer than his first term in office. In a sense, Netanyahu sees former prime minister Sharon as a role model who rehabilitated his image and gained admiration in Israel and respect around the world. He will invest efforts in making his premiership as sustainable as possible to prevent early elections from being imposed on his government, an exceptional achievement in the unstable political terrain in Israel. However, those expecting Netanyahu to change his convictions overnight are likely to be disappointed. The new prime minister begins his term with a clear agenda that sets clear priorities, though he has proved in the past his flexibility and pragmatism. At a time when Israel faces immense internal and international challenges, Netanyahu will be tested by his ability to successfully live up to and handle these challenges.

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[i] Gary Duncan, ‘Netanyahu: Iran nuclear threat outstrips economy,’ Times Online, 29 January 2009.

[ii] Gwen Ackerman, ‘Netanyahu Push for ‘Economic Peace’ Hits Roadblocks,’ Bloomberg, 29 March 2009.

[iii] Roy McCarthy, ‘Clinton condemns Israel’s demolition of Arab East Jerusalem homes,’ Guardian, 4 March 2009.

[iv] Donald Macintyre, ‘Netanyahu pledges to be a ‘partner for peace’,’ Independent, 26 March 2009.