BICOM

To accompany BICOM’s forecast of the year ahead, The Middle East in 2018, BICOM asked six renowned Middle East experts for their three predictions for 2018.

Never has the Talmudic postulate about prophecy “being given to fools” been more relevant than today. Policy practitioners have all been humbled by the multitude and pace of potentially game-changing events over the past year. With that in mind, I offer three modest predictions.

1. Politics will play a defining role in the region, as changes in leadership loom large. Examples abound. Elderly men in poor health hold the helm in places like Iran and the Palestinian Authority. Legal challenges threaten to unseat Israel’s prime minister, and possibly even the president of the United States. The repercussions of domestic reform in Saudi Arabia could jeopardize the throne. Continued instability is a foregone conclusion.

2. Russia will capitalise on this instability to further advance its allies and regional agenda. The Trump administration’s general malaise toward the international system – where it invests little, beyond rhetoric – will ensure that America’s partners in the Middle East continue to hedge their bets with the Kremlin.

3. The proverbial peace process between Israel and the Palestinians will remain comatose. Neither party will regain its lost appetite for negotiations, citing an absence of trust in the other. And the increasing convergence of interest between Israel and moderate Sunni regimes will maintain pressure to address Palestinian claims at perfunctory levels.

Shalom Lipner is Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings