Hezbollah is clearly signaling a message that it sees its score with Israel has been settled. The ambush Wednesday morning that killed an IDF fighter and an officer and wounded seven soldiers is, by all indications, retaliation – and a suitable response in its view – for the killing of its senior officials and an Iranian general last Sunday on the Golan Heights.

Hezbollah is worried that Israel would respond with force the attack on its soldiers, destroy its vast missile system and impair the organization’s ability to act as a strategic long arm for Iran. The Iranians have warned Nasrallah that this cannot happen.

Therefore, the Hezbollah chief has been issuing conciliatory messages via every possible channel. And now, the ball is in the Israeli court. Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ya’alon, the chief of staff and his deputy are actually the ones who decide what happens next. They face a difficult dilemma: If they deal a major blow to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the result would probably be a total conflagration, probably the Third Lebanon War.

It would be a war in which Lebanon and Hezbollah absorbed terrible destruction and losses but the Israeli home front would also be severely harmed – if not more so. If Israel shows restraint it may lose the deterrent effect it achieved in the Second Lebanon War. On the other hand, Hezbollah could rightly boast that it is the one deterring Israel and not vice versa.

As a result, Hezbollah may in the future continue operations against the IDF, in a measured manner akin to the events on Wednesday, on the assumption that the IDF will continue to show restraint. Under such conditions it would be very difficult for Israel and the IDF to prevent the transfer of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah convoys in Lebanon and prevent the establishment of a second front against Israel on the Syrian Golan Heights.

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