In early February, an alliance of Iran, the Syrian regime, and Hezbollah launched a major military offensive against rebel groups in Syria’s south, close to the borders of Israel and Jordan. This campaign bears potential strategic consequences for Israel and the Syrian theater, and calls for close U.S. and international attention.

THE WAR IN THE SOUTH

Some 4,000-5,000 troops have been massed for the offensive, which focuses on the provinces of Deraa, bordering Jordan, and Quneitra, bordering the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. Combatants include units from the Syrian army; the National Defense Forces, a government militia; an estimated 2,000 Hezbollah fighters, constituting a sizable portion of the group’s forces in Syria; and, notably, Iranian military elements including advisors and senior officers. A website close to the Syrian regime posted a photo of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force, visiting the area, signaling its importance to Iran.

The attacking forces have experienced modest success overall thus far. After capturing several towns and villages and dominating hilltops in northwest Deraa, about twenty kilometers from the Israeli border, they encountered strong rebel opposition and adverse weather conditions. However, with the aid of Syrian airstrikes, they continue to persistently push southward and westward.

As for this campaign’s context, southern Syria has seen constant clashes since the war began in 2011. Unlike in other parts of the country, local rebel groups — both Islamist and non-Islamist — have managed to work together to push back the Syrian army. Stretched thin and worn out, Assad’s army was forced to gradually give ground. Following a series of offensives in late 2014, this rebel coalition established control in large parts of the Deraa and Quneitra provinces, including the city of Quneitra and the Quneitra crossing bordering Israel-controlled territory. Even as the old UN-administered status quo crumbled, the border with Israel remained relatively quiet. While Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian franchise of al-Qaeda, established a notable presence around the city of Deraa and in the southern Golan Heights, it remained focused on fighting regime forces and has shied away from challenging Israel.

No doubt, the war in Syria provides major incentives for the recent offensive. Rebel successes in southern Syria threaten Damascus — the city of Deraa is less than a hundred kilometers south of the capital — and the strategic Beirut-Damascus and Damascus-Deraa roads. Pushing back against rebel gains is meant to deter Jordanian involvement in the war and block the influx of weapons and antiregime fighters from Jordanian territory, undercut the consolidation of rebel forces in the south, help block the flow of jihadists from Syria to Lebanon, and relieve the pressure on Damascus.

Yet this offensive should be regarded not merely as another battle in the Syrian regime’s protracted war against the opposition. It represents a strategic decision by the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” to establish a foothold in the vital area of southern Syria, with its proximity to Israel and Jordan.

Read the article in full at the Washington Institute.