People have always underestimated Isaac “Buji” Herzog, the leader of Israel’s Labour Party. Diffident, studious, quiet-spoken and bespectacled he may be, but he may also be about to topple “King Bibi,” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the country’s elections tomorrow. Unfancied as a prime ministerial candidate when the campaign began months ago, Herzog now has that most precious of political commodities, momentum. Herzog has been catching up to Netanyahu as the man seen as the most credible Prime Minister by Israelis. Even more significantly, Netanyahu’s Likud party has been losing altitude in the polls, with both party and leader accused of being jaded and out of touch with a public demanding socio-economic reforms.

Now the polls put Zionist Union—the electoral pact between Herzog’s Labour and former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s centrist Hatnua party—on 25 seats, four ahead of Likud. If he sustains or widens that lead tomorrow, he is in touching distance of a presidential invitation to form a governing coalition. That coalition building process would be no picnic, but assuming Herzog were ultimately to take the Prime Minister’s chair, what would it mean for Israel and internationally?

Domestically Herzog is promising to tackle the cost of living crisis which has dominated Israel’s political agenda since major protests demanding social justice were staged in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa in 2011. In short, he wants higher spending on public services and welfare, subsidised state land for affordable housing, and improved competition in consumer markets. Where all the money will come from is not clear, but one source will be subsidies currently given to isolated West Bank settlements: Herzog has promised to stop building beyond the main settlement blocks, which Israel hopes to keep in any future agreement with the Palestinians.

Through this he also hopes to send a message to the international community that he is serious about reaching a two state solution. For this reason above all others, Herzog is likely to enjoy a warm welcome on the international stage, especially in the US and Europe, compared to Netanyahu, whose coalition with the pro-settlement right has undermined the credibility of his commitment to the peace process. Few in Israel expect a sudden breakthrough with the Palestinians, even under a centre-left government, but Herzog proposes to recruit moderate Arab states and the West in an attempt stop the current deterioration and forge a diplomatic horizon.

Indeed one of Herzog and Livni’s offers to the Israeli public is improved international relations and legitimacy, which they say will in turn enhance Israel’s security. Herzog can be expected to be welcomed with a bear hug in Washington, where the Obama administration’s clashes with Netanyahu over both the peace process and Iran have soured relations. Once he gets inside the White House however, he is likely to echo Netanyahu’s warnings over a bad deal with Iran, which are shared across the spectrum in Israel. Indeed, no Israeli premier will last long if they are not seen to be standing up for Israel’s vital national security interests.

Read the article in full at Prospect Magazine.