Syria has become the epicentre of regional turmoil, emitting waves of refugees, terror and instability far beyond the Middle East. Of all Syria’s neighbours, Israel has been the least affected. But while it is neither part of the war nor the diplomatic efforts, Israel remains a stakeholder in the future of its northern neighbour.

Developments in Syria are judged in Israel mostly by the direct danger posed by the Iranian-led axis. Iran is a regional power deeply hostile to Israel that commands the region’s most heavily armed sub-state actor, Hezbollah. Assad’s remaining territory in Syria serves as a vital conduit for replenishing Hezbollah’s huge rocket arsenal, aimed at Israel.

Any potential diplomatic outcome for Syria will primarily be dictated by developments on the ground and these do not bode well for a solution. Syria is deeply fragmented, with none of the major players strong enough to overwhelm the other, nor weak enough to be eliminated. External powers are vying over the end game with conflicted goals.

They all agree Isis must be defeated, yet are divided on how and whether Assad is part of the problem or the solution. Western policy-makers should therefore focus on each of the various fragments in Syria, as well as on specific challenges.

Read the article in full at The Guardian.