“The big question is whether the tremendous economic burden that the sanctions have placed on ordinary citizens is likely to ignite a civil uprising, or at least persuade the regime to change its policy. A survey conducted by Gallup in December 2011 and January 2012 found that 57 percent of respondents would support Iran’s nuclear program if it were for nonmilitary purposes, while only 40 percent would support it if it were for military purposes.

More than a year ago, however, a poll conducted by the Rand Corporation found that 87 percent of respondents would support the development of a nuclear program for peaceful purposes. So if these figures are accurate, the decline in support for the nuclear program is significant.

But it evidently still isn’t enough to engender the pressure that would cause a change in Iranian policy.”

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