“However, if Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear facilities – a step that is bound to involve the United States, either actively or indirectly – Iran is unlikely to retaliate in an all-out confrontational style: by launching missiles against Israel, trying to sink U.S. ships in the Persian Gulf or even imposing its own closure of Hormuz. Instead Iran is far more likely to mobilize on the basis of the much wider support it can muster in the Muslim world, which is already seething with anti-American and anti-Israeli feelings.

The Islamic Republic’s primary support would come from the small but politically active and well-financed Shia minorities that can be found in almost all the states stretching from Lebanon to India. In many countries like Pakistan or Afghanistan, the Shia communities constitute up to 15 percent of the population. In the Gulf state of Bahrain, and of course in Iraq, Shia constitute a majority.

Since the Iranian revolution, in 1979, Tehran has seen itself as both spokesman and protector of the global Shia population, even though many Shia may resent this fact. In this self-delineated role, it has funded local Shia organizations, provided educational scholarships to Shia students to study in Iran, trained and armed local Shia militias in such places as Lebanon, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and provided military training and education to young Shias in their countries of origin.”

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