“Strategists for decades have studied the factors that drive nations toward conflict. One lesson of 1914, for example, is that it’s important to avoid an automatic process of escalation, in which one side’s mobilization compels a countermobilization by the other side. That makes me worry about the Saudi alert. Another precept for crisis managers is the need for quick communications links — like the famous “hotline” that was installed between the White House and the Kremlin after the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.

Once an escalation begins, it may be hard to stop. In Syria, many analysts think the level of sectarian killing is already past the tipping point; there are too many scores to settle. In Iran, the definition of the crisis is the lack of trust between Tehran and the West. There’s too little mutual confidence even for a hotline.

The Obama administration has opted to work with international coalitions to confront Syria and Iran. This still seems like the most sensible policy. But if these multilateral efforts are failing, it will fall to the United States to devise an alternative strategy. If the United States wants to get to “yes” in these negotiations, it will have to bargain more independently and aggressively.”

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