“The possibility of a disintegrating Syria reflects processes whose ramifications are not limited to the regimes’ future but touch on the these countries’ very existence. The territorial arrangement made after World War I, which political leaders until now have sought to preserve, is starting to crumble. It happened in Iraq, which is no longer a unified national Arab state. It is the case in Sudan, whose borders were drawn during the British occupation at the end of the 19th century and which has already split in two, with further divisions still to come. And in Libya, the people who toppled Muammar Gadhafi are having a hard time maintaining the country’s unity.

In the current charged atmosphere, this op-ed piece could be interpreted by some Arab analysts as more proof of the Zionist plot against the Arab world; any assertion that it is only an analysis of a possible development won’t convince anyone who believes in conspiracy theories. But historical processes sometimes have unexpected consequences. Just as in Russia the disintegration of the communist regime did not give rise to democracy but to Vladimir Putin, so it is in our region. The Arab Spring could be in for some surprises.”

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