“In only one case — the post-9/11 invasion of Iraq — has the United States gone to war to prevent a dangerous state from attaining nuclear capability. It didn’t intervene when Pakistan built the first Islamic bomb, it censured Israel after the 1981 attack on Iraq’s Osirak reactor, it held back when Saddam Hussein revived his nuclear arms program, at least until Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 (a good reason for Iranian caution about blocking the Straits of Hormuz). The U.S. took no action against North Korean development of nuclear weapons and apparently left it to others to deal with the Syrian nuclear plant in 2007. When the moment of truth has arrived, the U.S. has been relatively consistent in reconciling itself to the nuclearization of rogue states rather than going to war.

Nevertheless, American declarations that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable are not mere propaganda, they reflect real intentions. But Washington’s eventual decision won’t be based on declarations or actions taken in the past, it will be taken on the basis of real-time assessments of the situation and of U.S. interests. At that fateful moment, will the realities lead Washington’s decision-makers to order a military strike against Iran? That’s certainly possible, but far from certain. As a result, Israel’s leaders will be forced to make their own decisions against a background of uncertainty.”

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