“There’s a problem surgeons don’t have that air forces do: an enemy. So next time somebody talks about a surgical strike, imagine that they’re going to perform a tonsilectomy on you. A tonsilectomy that you don’t want. And you’re awake. And you’ve also got a scalpel. Now, things may get messy.

So when people talk about a surgical strike against Iran’s developing nuclear weapons capability, the first thing to ask is what the results will be. If the answer is that Iran will be delayed for a number of years in their quest to attain a deliverable nuclear weapon, the next question has to be “what else?”

Committing an act of war against a large and populous state like Iran is, as Saddam Hussein could tell you if he were alive today, not a straightforward act. When Saddam invaded Iran in 1980, he was surprised that Arabistan held together with the rest of Iran instead of welcoming the Iraqis as liberators. He was surprised that the fractious post-revolutionary Iranian society drew together in the face of an Arab threat. And when he finally withdrew from Iran, he was surprised that the Iranians moved into Iraq.”

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