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Comment and Opinion

Haaretz: Beyond the red line, by Michael Herzog

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“Was the prime minister justified when he publicly drew a red line on the Iranian nuclear program? Red lines have advantages and disadvantages. The advantage lies in the possibility of creating a deterrent that will stop the advancement of your opponent toward a goal that is dangerous for you. The disadvantage is that it can be inferred from this that the opponent is “permitted” to advance to that point, and the initiative and decision when to push on further remain in his hands. If he goes beyond the red line you’ve set, you have to stop him or risk eroding your deterrence.

Thus, for a policy of this kind to succeed, several conditions are necessary. The lines have to refer to a real strategic challenge; the person drawing them has to be determined to follow through even at the price of a military confrontation; and the other side must understand well, and believe, that if it goes beyond them, it will risk a confrontation of that kind. All the other relevant players – in our case, the United States and the international community – also have to see things in the same way.”

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