“My gut feeling is that Meir Dagan is mistaken about Iran. The former Mossad chief recently said it would be stupid for Israel to attack Iran. For three years there was great tension in the international community over the possibility that Israel would launch a surprise attack. But then just last year, the tension subsided. The success of the clandestine struggle against Iran and of economic sanctions against the regime have put off the moment of truth. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are not as crazy as some tend to present them. Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon, Minister Benny Begin and Intelligence and Atomic Energy Minister Dan Meridor are on their guard. There is no real proof that a nuclear attack by Iran is imminent. We could be surprised – it is possible we are being misled. But as of now, the impression is that the time Dagan gained vis-a-vis Iran has not run out. It is very important to the Israeli leadership that the option of a real military deterrent be on the table, but Israel does not intend to make hasty use of that option.

My gut feeling is that Dagan was absolutely right about the Palestinian issue. What we see today is not only Israeli diplomatic paralysis. What we see is Israeli diplomatic failure. In the bunker in Jerusalem they still don’t understand this. But Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has roundly beaten Netanyahu. Abbas has corralled Israel’s prime minister to the abyss. At first he took terror out of the Israel-Palestinian equation and thus garnered sweeping international support. Then he maneuvered Israel toward the settlement front, where it has no chance. Finally, he moved the battle from negotiations to the United Nations.”

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