During the American election campaign, one of the promises that President Trump made was to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Unlike other issues, such as immigration and trade, about which Trump made some quick decisions during his first few days in office, he announced that the embassy question is complex and will be discussed in the coming months. King Abdullah’s visit to the United States and messages from the Arab world expressed several risks that such a move would entail, possibly causing the president to rethink his commitment. The administration’s decision on upholding or curbing the 1995 Congressional legislation on moving the embassy to Jerusalem must be made before June 2017, when a presidential decision is required (every six months).

In principle, Israel cannot but welcome this important US move, should it be approved. Moving the embassy would strengthen Jerusalem’s status as Israel’s capital in the eyes of the rest of the world, and therefore it would be wrong of Israel to oppose it, apart from any political context and/or considerations of timing. Furthermore, it is important to understand that this is an internal US decision in which Israel was not asked to take a stand, and it therefore behooves Israel to maintain a low profile on the issue. Nonetheless, Israel should calculate the implications and ramifications of the initiative, consider the inherent opportunities and risks, and prepare accordingly. Using discreet channels, Israel should recommend to the administration the manner and timing of the move so that potential risks will be minimized.

It would be unwise to ignore the risks involved in moving the embassy, even if we assume that Palestinians and opponents to the move both in Israel and the United States are amplifying these risks. First, there is the threat of a renewed Palestinian intifada, using Jerusalem as its symbol and the inflammatory slogan of “al-Aqsa is in danger” as its rallying cry. This could include another round of fighting in the Gaza Strip, which is already at the boiling point, and could set off riots among Israel’s Arab citizens. Second, the warning has been heard against the continued freeze of the political process, and the embassy’s move would make it even more difficult to restart the political process in the future. Third, emphasizing the US Embassy’s move to West Jerusalem paradoxically might weaken Israel’s claim to a united Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and under Israel’s control; in other words, it would strengthen international recognition of East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine.

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