The war between the Assad regime in Syria and the largely Sunni Arab uprising against it which began in March 2011 is now in its closing stages. The last independent rebel enclaves in parts of Deraa and Quneitra provinces have ceased to be. As of now, the rebellion remains in two parts of the country. In both these areas, the rebels can maintain themselves only because their presence is supported by an outside power.

The two areas are the US base at al-Tanf and the surrounding area, and the Turkish maintained area of control extending from Jarabulus on the Syrian Turkish border, westwards to include the Afrin area, and then south to Idleb Province.

The medium to long term existence of these enclaves is far from assured. But in any case, they represent a transition in the civil war in which rebel fighters are no longer pursuing a political project of their own. They have of necessity become contractors working for foreign powers with their own projects in Syria.

The situation reflects a sea change in the Syrian dynamic. The Assad regime is no longer under threat. Thanks to Iranian and Russian assistance, its survival is now ensured. It remains, however, in possession of only 60% of the territory of Syria. The largest area now outside of regime control is the 30% of the country under the control of the US-supported, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SPD). The Syrian situation is now dependent on the decisions and the rivalries of outside powers, not primarily on the wishes of Syrians on all sides. In the case of the 30% of Syria controlled by the SDF, its future is dependent on the US.

Read the full article at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies.