Diplomatic support : Following his visit to Israel, US President Joe Biden made an address from the Oval Office last night. He called on Congress to approve an expanded aid package for Israel and Ukraine, including an additional $14 billion for Israel.

• In his address Biden said, “the terrorist group Hamas unleashed pure, unadulterated evil in the world.”
• He noted, “Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common: they both want to completely annihilate a neighbouring democracy… Hamas, its stated purpose for existing is the destruction of the State of Israel and the murder of Jewish people. Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people. Hamas uses Palestinian civilians as human shields, and innocent Palestinian families are suffering greatly because of them.”
• Adding, “Iran is supporting Russia in Ukraine, and it’s supporting Hamas and other terrorist groups in the region. And we’ll continue to hold them accountable.”
• Relating to the financial support, Biden called it, “a smart investment that’s going to pay dividends for American security for generations, help us keep American troops out of harm’s way, help us build a world that is safer, more peaceful, and more prosperous for our children and grandchildren. In Israel, we must make sure that they have what they need to protect their people today and always”.
• “The security package I’m sending to Congress and asking Congress to do is an unprecedented commitment to Israel’s security that will sharpen Israel’s qualitative military edge, which we’ve committed to. We’re going to make sure Iron Dome continues to guard the skies over Israel. We’re going to make sure other hostile actors in the region know that Israel is stronger than ever and prevent this conflict from spreading.”
• Prime Minister Sunak was in Israel yesterday to show his support. In his meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Sunak said, “I want to share the deep condolences of the British people and stress that we absolutely support Israel’s right to defend itself in line with international law, to go after Hamas, to take back hostages, deter further incursions and to strengthen your security for the long-term.”

Continued fighting: The IDF continues to strike hundreds of Hamas’s military targets. According to IDF announcements, targets included an underground tunnel, weapons storage, dozens of operational command centres, anti-tank missile launching posts, terror tunnel shafts.

• In addition, “numerous” “Nukbha” forces, who led the attack on October7, have been killed, with “more than ten terrorists targeted in a precision aerial strike.”
• The IDF also “struck the head of the military branch of the ‘Popular Resistance Committees’ terror organisation in Rafah, Rafat Harb Hussein Abu Hilal”.
• In the north, twenty rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israel. Four were intercepted by anti-missile defence system. There were also more anti-tank missiles attacks.  IDF artillery responded toward the sources of the fire in Lebanon.
• In the West Bank, the IDF and Shin Bet announced they conducted, “wide-scale counterterrorism activity overnight… over 80 wanted suspects were apprehended, including 63 Hamas terror operatives; the forces demolished the residence of a Hamas terrorist in the town of Qibya and apprehended a number of wanted suspects in the Nur Shams Camp.”
• After a lull overnight, this morning rocket fire out of Gaza has resumed.

Context: Hezbollah is slowly ratcheting up its attacks on northern Israel. There has now been over 150 rockets fired from Lebanon and over 20 anti-tank missile strikes, a dozen incidents of small arms fire, as well two infiltrations. So far, these attacks have only targeted the border vicinity.

• Israel has already evacuated the communities closest to the border, for fear of incursions by Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit.
• So far six Israeli have died in the north. In 2006 the war with Hezbollah began after seven soldiers were killed and two were kidnapped. Due to the scale of the task in the south, so far Israel is returning fire at source and not looking to expand the range of targets.
• Hamas is encouraging Iran to push Hezbollah to increase its attacks and expand its rockets range to target Tel Aviv and Haifa.
• The underlying reason for the leaders of Israel’s closest allies, US, UK and Germany to all visit Israel this week was to deter Iran and Hezbollah from escalating any further.
• Since October 7, the IDF has arrested 524 wanted suspects across the West Bank, over 330 of them are affiliated to Hamas. Over 50 weapons have also been confiscated.

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Gallant has approved the evacuation of the northern town of Kiryat Shemona, with over 20,000 inhabitants.

• Like last Friday, Hamas is again inciting for a day of rage and attacks against Israel from across the Palestinian and wider Arab world.
• The humanitarian aid for Gaza from Egypt appears to be delayed. There is concern over the entry mechanism so as to avoid Hamas seizing the goods. There are also ongoing talks regarding the content of the aid.
• The IDF continues to firm up plans ahead of an anticipated ground incursion into Gaza.

What happened: The IDF has presented evidence that a rocket fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad misfired and hit a hospital inside Gaza.

• Palestinian sources said hundreds of people died in the explosion.
• In the immediate aftermath, leaders across the Arab word accused Israel of hitting the hospital.
• Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas declared three days of national mourning to mark what he described as “genocide.”
• As Israel was blamed for the strike, the Israeli embassy in Jordan was attacked, as well as the US embassy in Lebanon. Palestinians attacked Joseph’s Tomb in Nablus.
• According to the IDF, “an analysis of IDF operational systems indicates that a barrage of rockets was fired by terrorists in Gaza, passing in close proximity to the Al Ahli hospital in Gaza at the time it was hit. Intelligence from multiple sources we have in our hands indicates that Islamic Jihad is responsible for the failed rocket launch which hit the hospital in Gaza.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu, said, “the entire world should know: it was barbaric terrorists in Gaza that attacked the hospital in Gaza, and not the IDF. Those who brutally murdered our children also murder their own children.”
• Overall, the IDF has continued to strike dozens of military targets in the Gaza Strip including, “operational command centres, a number of terrorist staging grounds, anti-tank missile and rocket launchers, military infrastructure, as well as military infrastructure located on top of Hamas terror tunnels.”
• Palestinian sources said Ayman Nofal, the head Hamas military wing in Central Gaza was killed yesterday.
• The IDF also targeted and killed another two senior Hamas operatives: Muhammad Awdallah – commander of the anti-tank missile system in Gaza City – and Akram Hijazi, from the Hamas naval forces. According to the IDF he was also an arms dealer and responsible for directing terror attacks on Israel.
• Hezbollah has continued low intensity attacks on Israel’s northern border. An anti-tank missile was fired near Moshav Shetula last night, four IDF soldiers were injured. IDF artillery returned fire to the source.

Context: In general and in all previous rounds of rocket fire emanating from Gaza, over 10 per cent of the rockets misfired and fell inside Gaza, killing innocent Palestinians.

• Ahead of President Biden’s visit, there is speculation that the US is orchestrating a creative solution for Gaza in coordination with Israel and their Arab allies.
• The explosion at the hospital appears to have knocked this off the agenda, with Biden’s summit with the Arab leaders now cancelled.
• Israel is focused on military targets and goes to unprecedented lengths to avoid civilian casualties.
• Nofal is the highest-ranking Hamas official killed since the beginning of the war. Israel had previously targeted him for assassination in 2014.
• Nofal was considered one of Israel’s top five targets, the others include:
  • Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas inside Gaza.
  • Muhammad Deif , the head of the military branch who has survived several assassination attempts.
  • Tawfik Abu Naim, the head of the security apparatus.
  • Vahi Moshtaha, Sinwar’s senior adviser.
• Within the Hamas’s military wing, there are three more senior commanders who are being targeted following Nofal:
  • Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy and the coordinator between the military and political wings.
  • Ahmed Ahandor, commander of the northern Gaza Strip.
  • Muhammad Sinwar (Yahia’s brother), commander of the southern Gaza Strip and one of Gilad Shalit’s kidnappers.
• Two additional targets for elimination are the organisation’s brigade commanders:
  • Muhammad Shabana, commander of the Rafah Brigade.
  • Eaz al-Din Haddad, commander of the Gaza City Brigade.
• The pair replaced veteran division commanders who were eliminated in previous rounds in recent years.
• The IDF continues to encourage Gazan civilians to move to a safe zone in southern Gaza. Israel, alongside international partners, is exploring efforts to create a humanitarian aid corridor.
• There have so far been six anti-tank missiles attacks from Lebanon over the last few days, in addition to two rockets that were fired, but only one crossed into Israel.

Looking ahead: President Biden arrives in Israel this morning, for an unprecedented visit with the country at war.

• He is only expected to stay a few hours and will meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog.
• He is also expected to attend the war cabinet meeting. (For more comments on Biden’s visit see Israeli media summary below).
• Speculation continues if and when the IDF will launch a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip.
• It is also anticipated that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will visit Israel in the days ahead.

Hostages in Gaza: Hamas last night released the first footage of an Israeli hostage being held in the Gaza Strip.

• 21-year-old Mia Schem, an Israeli-French citizen and resident of Shoham, was kidnapped during Hamas’s deadly attack on the Nova music festival at Kibbutz Re’im in which 260 were murdered. She appeared on camera as her arm, injured in the attack, was being treated.
• “I’m being cared for,” she said. “I’m only asking to be returned home as soon as possible, to my family, to my parents, to my siblings. Please get me out of here as soon as possible.”
• Mia’s mother, Keren Schem, told reporters: “I know my baby is alive, I was in uncertainty until now… you can see that she is in pain, scared, but she seems to be in a stable condition. I almost fainted, I fell on the floor, I couldn’t believe that I was seeing her.”
• Keren appealed to world leaders to secure the safe return of all hostages, saying “here are children, boys and girls, who went out to celebrate life and be at a party. This is not the place they should be.”
• Israeli officials yesterday confirmed that relatives of 199 people had been told that their loved ones were being held in the Strip.
• Hamas military spokesman Abu Obeida, meanwhile, said that “security and practical difficulties” precluded a full count of the number of hostages in terrorist hands, but that the number was between 200 and 250: 200 held by Hamas and the rest by other “resistance factions and in other places”.
• He stated that hostages had been divided into three groups: foreigners or those with dual citizenship; women, the elderly, and children; and soldiers. Foreign passport holders, he added, were “our guests”, and would be released “as soon as conditions permit.”
• In separate remarks, senior Hamas political official Khaled Mashal echoed Abu Obeida, and confirmed that Hamas was demanding the release of 6,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel in return for the release of the hostages.
• Mashal thanked Hezbollah for “taking steps” against Israel but demanded that they be increased.
• Mashal also reiterated Hamas’s policy of refusing to allow Gazans any means of escaping the Strip as Israel continues its campaign there. He warned that any exodus would harm Egyptian security, and cautioned Jordan that such would set a precedent for West Bank Palestinians to flee to their nearest Arab state.

Incoming rockets: Rockets have continued to be fired into Israel from the Gaza Strip, overall the total is now over 6,900 rockets. Over 1,000 have been intercepted by the Iron Dome, whilst over 300 have caused direct hits on Israel’s home front.

• Last night there was another heavy barrage fired towards Tel Aviv and the centre of the country, no injuries were reported.
• There were also rockets directed towards Jerusalem, with one landing in the area of Bethlehem.
• The rockets towards Jerusalem coincided with the opening of the winter session of the Knesset, whilst in Tel Aviv, US Secretary of State Blinken was meeting Israeli leaders at IDF HQ.

Inside Gaza: The IDF has continued to bomb Hamas military targets. This morning the IDF confirmed, “IDF fighter jets struck Hamas headquarters and killed a Hamas military operative.”

• As well as airstrikes, the IDF confirmed that the navy has “used precision munitions striking targets of Hamas, including operational headquarters in the centre of Gaza City and munition warehouses.”
• In addition, “over the last few hours, dozens of military command centres and mortar shell posts were destroyed. In addition, the operational command centre of Ali Qadi, one of the commanders of the Hamas ‘Nukhba’ commando forces who was killed several days ago, was struck.”
• The IDF also confirmed, “the IDF and Shin Bet killed Osama Mazini, the head of the Shura Council of Hamas terrorist organisation in the Gaza Strip. Mazini was responsible for Hamas prisoners and directed terrorist activities against Israel.”
• Israel is continuing to encourage Gazan civilians to move south and has resumed water supply to southern Gaza.

In the north: This morning, the IDF announced that it has killed four terrorists who tried to cross the border from Lebanon and plant an explosive device, close to the northern kibbutz Hanita.

• The four were killed by drone strike as they approached the border fence. No Israelis were injured.
• This morning there was an anti-tank missile attack on a vehicle in Metula, leaving two people injured. The IDF has now declared Metula a closed military zone.
• After yesterday’s announcement of an evacuation of Israeli civilians living in 28 communities within 2 kilometres of the northern border, Hezbollah opened fire with light arms at several Israeli border military posts. A missile was also launched at an Israeli tank.
• No soldiers were hurt, and the IDF responded with artillery attacks directed at the sources of Hezbollah fire.
• 1 Israeli civilian, 2 Lebanese civilians, 1 journalist, 5 Israeli soldiers, 4 Hezbollah terrorists, and 5 Palestinian terrorists have died in northern border clashes over the last week.
• Opening the Knesset’s wartime session yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Hezbollah and its Iranian patron against escalating. “Don’t try us,” he said, “you will be severely harmed.”
• IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said yesterday that “we have increased our forces on the northern border and will respond aggressively to any activity against us. If Hezbollah dares to test us,” he continued, “the reaction will be deadly. The United States is giving us full backing.”

Diplomatic context: Israel continues to receive strong support from democratic allies, most significantly from the US and UK.

• In a unusual example of that support, Secretary of State Blinken attended a meeting of the Israeli war cabinet yesterday.
• He was privy to the latest plans as Israel prepares for a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip to further target Hamas’s military infrastructure.
• This is the first time a senior US official has joined these consultations since the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago, when Henry Kissinger attended Golda Meir’s security cabinet.
  • This is further testament to the two countries’ close coordination.
  • It complements the US decision to send US aircraft carriers to the region and resupply Israel with advanced munitions.
  • It is also part of a US effort to deter Iran and Hezbollah from opening up another front.
  • US influence will also be encouraging Israel to allow in humanitarian aid into Gaza.
• Last night US Centcom commander Michael Kurilla arrived in Israel to meet with IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi. On arrival he confirmed, “I’m here to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and am particularly focused on avoiding other parties expanding the conflict.”
• The close US-Israel cooperation is expected to be solidified further with a short visit by President Biden to Israel in the next day or two.
• Biden is expected to use the opportunity of a regional visit to also meet Arab allies.
• In a speech to Parliament yesterday, UK Prime Minister Sunak reaffirmed British commitment to Israel. He “called for the immediate release of all hostages. And I say to them: we stand with you; we stand with Israel.”
• Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with Russian President Putin. According to Netanyahu’s office, “the Prime Minister made it clear that Israel had been attacked by brutal and abhorrent murderers, had gone to war determined and united, and would not stop until it had destroyed Hamas’s military and governing capabilities.”
• Netanyahu and Putin were once considered close, particularly having reached understanding over Israeli interests in Syria, but have more recently drifted apart. Israel’s support for Ukraine and Russia’s subsequent reliance on Iranian weapons have frayed relations.
• Yesterday at the UN Security Council, a Russian ceasefire proposal was rejected. Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan said Israel would not stop until it defeats and destroys the Nazi Hamas, whose goal is to destroy the State of Israel.

Inside the Gaza Strip: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has continued to attack Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip.

• The IDF announced they struck 750 military targets overnight, including underground Hamas tunnels, military compounds and posts, residences of senior terrorist operatives which were used as military command centres, weapons storage warehouses, communication rooms and targeted senior terrorist operatives.
• IAF Commander Maj Gen Tomer Bar said that more than 6,000 bombs have been dropped on Gaza and that this was just the beginning. “We have a list of everyone who participated in the despicable crimes against our family, the residents of the Gaza periphery communities. We’ll get them.”
• As well as air strikes the IDF is now calling for a mass evacuation of 1.1 million residents of northern Gaza. All civilians living north of the Besor Stream (Wadi Gaza) will be required to evacuate their homes, including the entire population of Gaza City, the Jabalia refugee camp and the towns of Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya.
• For example, leaflets were dropped with the warning, “to the residents of Beit Lahiya, the actions of the terrorist organisation Hamas pushed the IDF forces to act against the terrorist organisation Hamas in the areas where you live. For your safety, you must evacuate your homes immediately. The IDF is not interested in harming you or your family members. Anyone who is near Hamas terrorists or terrorist facilities will put their lives in danger.”
• Other messages stated, “the Hamas terrorist organisation waged a war against the State of Israel and Gaza City is an area where military operations take place. This evacuation is for your own safety. You will be able to return to Gaza City only when another announcement permitting it is made. Do not approach the area of the security fence with the State of Israel.”
• The IDF emphasised that they are, “committed to international law and minimising harm to civilians – contrasting Hamas’s actions, which resemble the dark days of the Islamic State. We are not fighting the residents of Gaza but Hamas, which is worse than IS. This is an event of several days, and we will act to expedite it.”
• The UN has warned Israel of “severe humanitarian consequences.”
• In response, Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan replied, “for many years, the UN has turned a blind eye to Hamas’s military buildup and its use of the civilian population and civilian infrastructure in the Strip as a hiding place for its weapons and killing machinery. Now, instead of standing with Israel, whose citizens have been slaughtered by Hamas terrorists and who tries to minimise harm to uninvolved parties, [the UN] preaches to Israel instead.”
• Hamas is trying to prevent the evacuation by saying it is false. It prefers the civilian population to remain in place and serve as human shields.
• Hamas health officials in Gaza say the death toll has risen to over 1,500 with 6,600 wounded.

Arab world: Hamas has called on all Palestinians and all members of the Arab Islamic Nations for a “Day of Rage” and to mobilise and come from wherever they are to the closest place they can to Al-Aqsa, calling on them to cross borders.

• There is a high state of alert across all of Israel, and in Jerusalem in particular.
• Mahmoud Abbas, the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, rejected the call from Hamas and said, “we reject killing civilians and abusing them on both sides because this is against morality and international law. Peaceful resistance is the way to achieve our national goals.”
• This morning, Jordanian forces are deployed on the Israeli border to prevent demonstrators from approaching.
• Egypt President Sisi said, “we call for a rational approach in de-escalation and for removing civilians from the cycle of revenge. I urge a return to the path of negotiations.”
• Demonstrations in support of Hamas are expected in many areas across Lebanon as well as in Iraq and Iran.
• Yesterday, Syrian state media reported that Israeli airstrikes hit the international airports in Damascus and Aleppo.
• The Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, arrived in Lebanon today. He is expected to meet with Hezbollah leadership, and possibly Hamas representatives as well, to coordinate their next steps.

UK sends forces to East Med: Continuing its support for Israel, the UK last night announced that it will send two Royal Navy ships – RFA Argus and RFA Lyme Bay – as well as surveillance aircraft, three Merlin helicopters, and Royal Marines to the eastern Mediterranean.

• The P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol and surveillance aircraft will monitor attempts to transfer weapons to regional terrorist organisations.
• Reinforcements have also been sent to the UK’s Cypriot air base RAF Akrotiri.
• In a call with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Prime Minister Sunak “reaffirm[ed] the UK’s steadfast support for Israel following Hamas’ appalling terrorist attack,” Downing Street confirmed.
• Sunak also spoke to Netanyahu of the need to “take all possible measures to protect ordinary Palestinians and facilitate humanitarian aid.” He later spoke with Egyptian President Sisi about the “challenging security situation” at Egypt’s Rafah border crossing with Gaza and “offered the UK’s support to try to manage this situation and keep the route open for humanitarian and consular reasons, including for British nationals.”
• Following UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on Wednesday becoming the first official of a major international ally to visit Israel since the attacks, more are expected to travel to Israel today. The president of the European Commission, the president of the European Parliament, and the foreign ministers of Germany, Canada, and Italy are all set to arrive.

Context: The US and UK’s military presence in the region serves as a projection of force and a warning primarily to Hezbollah and Iran not to attack Israel.

• While UK political support for Israel’s right to respond decisively to Hamas remains firm, there is increasing disquiet, including from the same supportive voices, about the situation of Gazan civilians.
• Egypt has called for Israel to cease its bombing of the Rafah crossing to allow for the flow of Jordanian aid into Gaza.
• Last night Sisi appeared to rule out Egypt allowing Gazan civilians to escape the Strip through the crossing and into Egypt. Their place was to “stay steadfast and remain on their land,” he said.
• Hezbollah has so far refrained from major escalation on the norther border, despite Hamas’s call at the outset of its surprise attack for other members of the “resistance” to join in.
• President Biden’s stark warning to other regional actors of the consequences of joining the fight likely played a role in the Iranian proxy exercising caution.
• Israeli troop reinforcements have been sent to the northern front and air defences set to maximum sensitivity. This perhaps explains the false alarm of a drone infiltration of northern Israel from southern Lebanon on Wednesday. Many residents of towns in the border area have left their homes.
• Incoming rocket fire from Gaza continues, but at a lower rate than on previous days. An evacuation of Sderot has been approved by the Israeli government.
• The apparent strikes in Syria came two days after the IDF confirmed carrying out artillery strikes in on the Syrian source of mortar fire into Israel.
• Israel does not comment on its strikes in Syria, but it is rare for such strikes to take place during the day. It is possible that these strikes were aimed to prevent weapons shipments.