Hostage deal:  On Tuesday night the cabinet approved the deal to release 50 hostages from Gaza.

• At the end of a long meeting in which ministers received a detailed security briefing, thirty-five ministers voted in favour and only the three ministers (from Jewish Power) voted against.
• The deal was also backed by the heads of the security establishment: the army, Shin Bet and Mossad.
• The arrangement calls for an initial four day pause in fighting.
• Over the four days Hamas will release 30 children, eight mothers and twelve elderly women, all alive.
• In return Israel will release around 150 Palestinian terrorists who were not convicted of murder.
• In addition, hundreds of trucks with humanitarian aid, medical aid and fuel will enter the entire Gaza Strip.
• Hamas claims that Israel would entirely stop the use of aircraft in the southern Gaza Strip for four days. In the northern Gaza Strip, aerial activity will be halted for six hours every day, between 1000 – 1600.
• The humanitarian corridor will remain open allowing Gazans to leave the north for the south, but not to return to the north.
• The deal will see three Palestinian minors or women serving prison sentences in Israel released for every Israeli who is freed.
• At this point the deal only includes Israeli civilians, not soldiers or foreign nationals.
• The names of the Palestinian terrorists who are to be released will be published later today on an official website, after which anyone who wishes to petition the High Court of Justice against their release will have 24 hours to do so.
• The deal could be extended; for every release of ten more Israeli hostages there will be an additional day of paused hostilities.
• The deal is expected to go into effect on Thursday morning.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that as part of the deal International Red Cross officials would be visiting the remaining hostages.

Inside Gaza Strip: The IDF released a photo showing they have breached the blast proof door in the tunnel found underneath the Shifa hospital.

• By gaining access inside, the IDF are understood to be cautiously exploring the tunnel, wary that it could be booby trapped, in an effort to gather intelligence and then decommission it.
• Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) announced the death of one of the Israeli hostages, Hannah Katzir, a 77 year old lady from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Her husband Rami was killed on October 7 when she was kidnapped. Her family confirmed that she was frail and had expressed grave concern for her survival without her regular medication.
• Earlier in the day IDF Chief of Staff Halevi met with reserve soldiers in the Gaza Strip. He told them, “The ground operations create better conditions for the return of the hostages, and we will continue with this pressure.”
• The IDF continued its advances on the ground in northern Gaza an air strikes on Hamas targets in the south. 

The north: Hezbollah claimed 13 attacks on Israel throughout yesterday.

• Early yesterday evening, multiple rockets were launched towards Israel’s Western and Upper Galilee regions, causing sirens to sound in Kiryat Shmona and other communities. The IDF responded with fire to the source of the attacks.
• Four Hamas terrorists were killed in an Israeli drone strike in Chaatiyeh, southern Lebanon yesterday. Unconfirmed social media reports suggested that one of the dead was Khalil Kharaz, deputy commander of Hamas’s Lebanon wing.
• Earlier, Lebanese officials claimed that two journalists and a civilian were killed when the IDF struck multiple Hezbollah anti-tank missile squads in southern Lebanon.
• This strike came in response to three anti-tank guided missiles fired from Lebanon at the Metula area of northern Israel yesterday morning. An Israeli army post on the border also received mortar fire.
• In response to the Israeli strike, Hezbollah claimed to have fired two anti-tank missiles at the northern community of Menara.
• Also yesterday, the IDF launched interceptor missiles at several “suspicious aerial targets” – likely drones – which entered Israel’s northern airspace.

Context: The deal came about following intense diplomatic efforts from the US in consultation with the Qataris. On the US side, direct pressure was brought to bear by President Biden, enhanced by the experienced mediation of CIA Director William Burns.

• Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani led the interaction with Hamas officials, many of whom are based in Doha. Mossad chief Barnea represented Israel in these conversations.
• Qatar hosts the external Hamas leadership, and conducted its discussions with them, but the negotiations also required buy-in from the Hamas leadership in Gaza.
• This process was complemented by a second track involving the head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar, and the head of Egyptian intelligence Abbas Kamel. This is a more familiar track: Egyptian intelligence has often previously acted as conduit between Israel and Hamas.
• Israel’s security cabinet was thought to have been split on the wisdom of agreeing to deal involving a pause in fighting in Gaza. Defence Minister Gallant favoured pressing home Israel’s advantage, and apparently argued that the more Hamas was degraded, the better a hostage deal could be extracted from its leaders. Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot, as well as Shas leader Aryeh Deri, led the argument in favour of the deal, believing that it was the best, and possible the only, deal Israel could expect to receive.
• The impassioned publicity campaign waged by the families, which included a march from Tel Aviv to the prime minister’s office, was also effective in persuading the political echelon to favour a deal.
• Reflecting the debate in the Israeli media, Yediot Ahronot features two opposing opinions, Nahum Barnea arguing in favour and Yossi Yehoshua against.
• Barnea wrote “the options were bad and the decisions were hard… This isn’t a deal. A deal is a dirty word when talking about a terrorist organisation. This is blackmail, coercion. But in the situation that has developed, Israel has no choice but to pay the price. The alternative of forsaking the hostages a second time, after they were first forsaken on October 7, would have been far worse and far more dangerous. Beyond the price it could end up costing in blood and lives, it would have left an indelible stain on the Israeli government and the IDF.”
• Yehoshua counters that “the enemy is an irrational actor, a shockingly vicious murderer who is also familiar with Israeli society’s soft underbelly. Just like he recognised the domestic crisis as a window of opportunity for an attack, so too has he utilised the hostages to get oxygen and to prepare for what comes next. From his standpoint, the price is negligible: he doesn’t care about the people of Gaza, and he definitely doesn’t care about the Israeli women and children. Somehow, the monster who sent terrorists to butcher us will still get legitimacy thanks to 50 hostages, out of more than 200, and that legitimacy will help him secure a total ceasefire… the IDF’s offensive momentum will be stopped…”
• In the latest sign of coordination between the Axis of Resistance, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah met with senior Hamas officials based in Lebanon.
• Lebanese sources have suggested that the ceasefire will also include the northern border, but Israel has made no official commitment to this.
• Meanwhile in the West Bank on Tuesday, 5 Palestinians were killed in two IDF drones strikes in Tulkarm.  Among those targeted was Rami al-Shumali, the commander of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Battalions in the area, together with operatives from PIJ.

Humanitarian efforts: According to Coordinator of Government Activity in the Territories (COGAT), the following efforts are being made:

• Jordan is setting up a field hospital in Khan Yunis, which is expected to be operational in a couple of days.
• A United Arab Emirates field hospital finalised the planning process and expected to be set up in the coming days.
• 27 Wounded children left Gaza to receive medical care in the UAE.
• 86 cancer patients left Gaza to receive medical care in Turkey.
• So far, 354 ill and wounded have exited the Gaza Strip for medical treatment in Egypt, the UAE and Turkey.
• On Tuesday, 6,500 more people evacuated south. So far, over 350,000 people have evacuated from the northern Gaza Strip to its southern part.

Looking ahead: The ceasefire is expected to begin at 0600 local time tomorrow.

• The first group of 10-12 Israeli hostages are expected to be released a few hours later.
• The hostages will be handed over to the Red Cross and then on to the IDF where they will undergo medical examination and then be reunited with their families.
• It is anticipated that they will all receive a security debrief with extra care taken to provide the children with appropriate paediatric care.

Hostages: There is mounting speculation over an arrangement that will see the release of around 52 hostages: children, their mothers as well as possibly the sick and elderly held captive inside Gaza.

• Negotiations, mediated by the US and Qatar, are thought to have reached an understanding that in return for the hostages, Israel will agree to a four or five day ceasefire, allow 200 trucks a day of humanitarian aid to enter Gaza from Egypt and release between 150-250 Palestinian prisoners – women and teenagers.
• The outstanding issues are thought to be logistical, including the sequencing of the release and Hamas’s insistence that the ceasefire includes Israel halting its aerial intelligence via monitoring drones. Hamas claim that they will spend the first day of the ceasefire finding the kidnapped children whose location they do not know, but can’t do this if they are being tracked.
• Another demand of Hamas is to allow humanitarian aid to also reach the northern Gaza Strip.

Shifa Hospital: The IDF continued their operation in the northern Gaza Strip, including in the Shifa Hospital compound.

• The IDF presented more evidence that the hospital was used as terrorist infrastructure.
• IDF troops exposed a 55-metre-long terror tunnel 10 meters deep underneath the hospital complex. The IDF noted, “A deep staircase leads to the entrance of the tunnel shaft, which consists of various defence means including a blast-proof door and a firing hole. This type of door is used by the Hamas terrorist organisation to block Israeli forces from entering the command centres and the underground assets belonging to Hamas. The tunnel shaft was uncovered in the area of the hospital underneath a shed alongside a vehicle containing numerous weapons including RPGs, explosives, and Kalashnikov rifles.”
• The IDF also releases footage, taken from CCTV at the hospital entrance, showing Hamas terrorists forcibly transporting hostages – a Nepalese civilian and a Thai civilian, who were kidnapped from Israeli territory.
• The IDF also found the bodies of two of the hostages in different buildings near the hospital.
• An IDF vehicle stolen during the massacre can also be seen inside the hospital area.
• The IDF continues to operate in other neighbourhoods to the West of Gaza City. During operations, the IDF arrested over 100 Hamas terrorists, three of whom are from the elite Nukhba unit which took part in the October 7th Massacre. The IDF have also killed a dozen more combatants, including three additional Hamas company commanders.

Iranian proxies: Attacks from Hezbollah towards northern Israel appeared to intensify again on Sunday, with 11 attacks recorded across the length of the Lebanese border.

• Meanwhile, in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, the Houthis hijacked a cargo ship partly owned by an Israeli businessman.
• Israel, according to the Israeli Prime Miniter’s office, “strongly condemns the Iranian attack against an international vessel. The ship, which is owned by a British company and is operated by a Japanese firm, was hijacked with Iran guidance by the Yemenite Houthi militia. Onboard the vessel are 25 crew members of various nationalities including Ukrainian, Bulgarian, Filipino and Mexican. No Israelis are onboard. This is another act of Iranian terrorism and constitutes a leap forward in Iran’s aggression against the citizens of the free world, with international consequences regarding the security of the global shipping lanes.”

Context: The evidence presented from Shifa appears to back up the IDF claim, “that numerous buildings in the hospital’s complex are used by Hamas as cover for terrorist infrastructure and activities. This is further evidence of the cynical manner [in which] Hamas uses the residents of the Gaza Strip as a human shield for their murderous terrorist activities.”

• Having initially entered from the north and the centre, bisecting the Strip and surrounding Gaza City, the IDF is targeting other Hamas strongholds in the west.
• The overall fighting remains intense. Over the weekend, several more IDF soldiers have been killed, taking the total in over three weeks of the ground campaign to 65.
• According to military intelligence, of Hamas’s 24 Battalions, 14 are in the northern half of the Strip, 10 of which are now significantly depleted. Those that escaped are thought to have  joined the remaining four.
• In his weekly address on Saturday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu added a third objective of the war (after destroying Hamas and returning the captives), that on the days after, “it is impossible to put in Gaza an authority that supports terror, abets terror, and pays terrorists.” Adding, “there is another condition that I set for the day after: the IDF will have complete freedom of action in the Gaza Strip against any threat. Only in this way will we guarantee the demilitarisation of Gaza.”
• This appears to rule out the Palestinian Authority (PA) assuming control, which puts the Israeli government at odds with the US. However Netanyahu also believes, “we will reach an agreement with the US also about this.”
• On Sunday the PA appeared to compound their problematic stance, releasing a statement suggesting that it was Israeli helicopters that bombed and killed Israeli civilians on October 7 during the Supernova music festival. They later deleted the statement.
• Netanyahu responded harshly, calling the statement “utterly preposterous.” He added, “it isn’t enough that for 44 days Abu Mazen has refused to condemn the terrible massacre, now his men are denying that massacre and are turning the tables on Israel. Abu Mazen the Holocaust-denier is now denying the Hamas-ISIS massacre.
• In a more supportive stance, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad of Bahrain condemned Hamas. He described the October 7th massacre of Israelis as “barbaric” and demanded the release of the Israeli hostages.
• Regarding the potential hostage deal, the inner war cabinet appears divided. Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot have argued that this opportunity won’t return and that this is the right time to secure the release of the women and children. Defence Minister Gallant favours continuing the fighting in order to defeat Hamas. There is concern that the ceasefire will give Hamas valuable days to reorganise and resupply.

Looking ahead: Tonight the War Cabinet will meet with representatives of the families of the hostages.

• Any deal will need to be approved by the full cabinet.

What happened: The IDF yesterday recovered the body of Yehudit Weiss, a 65-year-old mother of five kidnapped by Hamas from Kibbutz Be’eri on October 7^th.

• Weiss’s body was found in a building near Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, along with military equipment, including assault rifles and RPGs.
• “To our sorrow, Yehudit was murdered by the terrorists in the Gaza Strip. And we didn’t get to her in time,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said.
• Weiss’s daughter Zemer said, “it’s important for us to say that we fought, we battled in every possible way to bring mom, grandma Yehudit home. For us, it is too late, but it is important for us to support all the families of the hostages, and to tell the world, bring them home now, so that for them it is not too late, like it was for us.”
• The IDF also announced the recovery of the body of 19-year-old Cpl. Noa Marciano, another hostage, whose death it announced earlier this week.
• Troops discovered Marciano’s body in another building near Shifa hospital, with Prime Minister Netanyahu last night telling CBS that Israel has solid information that some of the hostages were held in the hospital.
• Asked about the prospects of a deal being reached to free some of the hostages, Netanyahu said “we are closer than before we began the ground action. The ground action has put pressure on Hamas to achieve a ceasefire. We’ll have a temporary ceasefire if we can get our hostages.”
• The IDF continued its attacks in Gaza last night, including air strikes and ground battles.
• Troops also raided a Palestinian Islamic Jihad outpost in northern Gaza, locating Iran-made Badr-3 rockets, drones, and other weapons.
• In raids on Hamas targets, troops founds assault rifles, explosive devices, RPGs, anti-tank missile launchers, and other equipment.
• In the north, the IAF attacked Hezbollah targets last night, and Hezbollah fired several anti-tank missiles at IDF posts near Biranit and Rosh Hanikra.
• Syria also claimed that Israel fired missiles at targets in the area of Damascus last night.
• In the West Bank, the IDF says it killed five Palestinian gunmen during an overnight counter-terror operation in Jenin.
• Seven wanted suspects were arrested in the raid, and weapons captured.
• US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Minister Gantz yesterday. They discussed the hostages and increasing humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip. Blinken also expressed US concern over settler violence in the West Bank.

Context: Weiss’s husband Shmulik was murdered by Hamas in its rampage through Be’eri, his body discovered in the family safe room a week and a half later.

• A member of the Combat Intelligence Collection Corps 414th unit, Marciano was serving at the Nahal Oz IDF base when it was attacked by Hamas.
• On Monday, Hamas had released a video of Marciano four days after having been kidnapped, identifying herself and reciting the names of her parents and her hometown. The video then showed her dead body.
• Hostage negotiations are facilitated by a series of talks via the US, Egypt and Qatar and then onto Hamas leaders. The process is complicated by limited contact with Hamas leaders inside Gaza.
• The contours of the deal being discussed are thought to comprise:
  • Hamas will release 50 hostages, comprising children with their mothers.
  • Israel will agree to three to five days of ceasefire.
  • Israel will allow in more fuel and humanitarian aid.
  • Israel will release 150 prisoners, including minors over 16, who have not committed murder.
• The security cabinet is thought to be divided on its approach to such a deal, with Defence Minister Gallant said to believe that Hamas is on the verge of collapse, with three IDF battalions making swift advances in Gaza.
• Gallant foresees this being the first of several hostage negotiations and so is eager to reduce the concessions made by Israel in return for the first group of hostage releases.
• Ministers, and war cabinet members, Gantz and Eisenkot are thought to be more pessimistic and think that the deal currently on offer might well be the only offer Israel receives.
• Any hostage deal will first be approved by the security cabinet, but according to Israeli law the whole cabinet needs to vote on it.
• The IDF has provided further evidence of Hamas’s widespread use of hospitals. A tunnel shaft with a car that was supposed to be used in the attack on the Gaza periphery communities was found inside Shifa Hospital, with multiple weapons inside.
• Weapons were also discovered in Al Quds Hospital, and a terrorist tunnel in Rantisi Hospital.
• Israel does not generally comment on attacks on targets in Syria.
• The US has expressed increasing concern over both the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the situation of patients and staff inside hospitals. It has also supported Israeli evidence of Hamas’s use of hospitals.
• Netanyahu said that Israel was engaging with hospitals “very gingerly because we’re trying to do the moral thing, the right thing, to deprive Hamas of having this safe zone in a hospital, but at the same time to neutralise its use as a command centre for terror. And so far we’ve achieved that.”

Looking ahead: Family members of the hostages are currently on the fourth day of a march from Tel Aviv to the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, which they are expected to reach on Saturday. They aim to keep the focus on the hostages and pressure the government to prioritise their safe return.

• Israel continues to search for tunnel shafts within the Shifa hospital complex, in the knowledge that Hamas had time to remove the most incriminating evidence and for key commanders to escape among the civilians

Gaza Strip: According to the IDF, they discovered an “operational command centre, weapons, and technological assets in the MRI building of the Shifa Hospital.”

• “In another department in the hospital, the soldiers located an operational command centre and technological assets belonging to Hamas, indicating that the terrorist organisation uses the hospital for terrorist purposes.”
• In the initial entry, the IDF killed several gunmen at the entrance to the hospital. According to Al-Jazeera, 200 Palestinians were arrested.
• The IDF also took over Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s residence (Haniyeh is based in Qatar), which according to the IDF, “was used as terrorist infrastructure, and often served as a meeting point for Hamas’ senior leaders to direct terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers.”
• In addition, during operations in the Shati neighbourhood, “IDF troops located and destroyed a Hamas naval forces weapons cache, containing diving gear, explosive devices, and weapons. IDF troops also struck terrorists and located weapons including explosive belts, explosive barrels, RPGs, anti-tank missiles, comms equipment, and intelligence documents.”
• In the course of the fighting two more IDF soldiers were killed, taking the total to 50 since the ground operation began.
• According to Hamas, the Gazan death toll has reached 11,500. It is not clear how many of them were combatants.
• Israel also allowed 23,000 litres of diesel to enter into Gaza via Egypt under the auspice of the UN.

Hostages: There is continued speculation for a deal.

• The latest contours suggest:
  • Hamas release 50 hostages, comprising children with their mothers.
  • Israel will agree to three to five days of ceasefire.
  • Israel will allow in more fuel and humanitarian aid.
  • Israel will release 150 prisoners, including minors over 16, who have not committed murder.
• The mechanism suggests that the ceasefire will only start once the first batch are released. There will then be a staggered release on both sides each day of the ceasefire.
• Israel is also demanding that Hamas takes full responsibility for all the children, so as not to claim that some are held by other factions or cannot be found.
• Israel has further demands, with some government officials arguing that by continuing the fighting at this point they can extract further concessions, including the release of closer to 100 hostages including all the children and their parents.
• The negotiations are facilitated by a series of talks via the US, Egypt and Qatar and then onto Hamas leaders. The process is complicated by limited contact with Hamas leaders inside Gaza.
• Any deal will first be approved by the security cabinet, but according to Israeli law the whole cabinet needs to vote on it. Last night a meeting to convene the full cabinet was cancelled.

UK Parliament: A Scottish National Party motion calling for a ceasefire in the House of Commons was defeated by 293 votes against to 125 in favour last night.

• The Israeli embassy in London welcomed the result of the vote, saying “the UK parliament vote this evening shows a strong moral clarity.”
• Eight shadow junior members from the UK opposition Labour party either resigned or were fired last night after rebelling against the party in voting for a ceasefire.
• A total of 56 Labour MPs voted for the motion, with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer having warned in advance that shadow cabinet members would face consequences for doing so.
• Starmer has continued to back Israel’s right to defend itself, and to support the US position, shared with the UK government, in favour of humanitarian pauses rather than a ceasefire.
• His position has caused divisions within the party, with a number of local government officials across the country resigning from the party.
• Saying he regretted the decisions of his frontbench colleagues, Starmer affirmed that “alongside leaders around the world, I have called throughout for adherence to international law, for humanitarian pauses to allow access for aid, food, water, utilities and medicine, and have expressed our concerns at the scale of civilian casualties.”
• He added: “leadership is about doing the right thing. That is the least the public deserves. And the least that leadership demands.”
• Labour’s own motion calling for humanitarian pauses was defeated by 290 to 183 votes.
• Elsewhere in Parliament, dozens of British MPs yesterday viewed a screening of the IDF’s raw footage of October 7^th obtained from Hamas bodycams.

UN Security Council: The council last night agreed a resolution introduced by Malta calling for the implementation of “urgent and extended humanitarian pauses and corridors throughout the Gaza Strip”.

• It further called for “all parties [to] comply with their obligations under international law, notably with regard to the protection of civilians, especially children.”
• The resolution made no condemnation of Hamas, nor mentioned its devastating attack of October 7^th in which at least 1,200 Israelis were killed.
• The US, UK, and Russia abstained from the vote, resulting in a 12-0 vote in favour. US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield explained the American abstention by saying that “there’s no excuse for failing to condemn these acts of terror. Let’s be crystal clear … Hamas set this conflict in motion.”
• Russia proposed an amendment calling for a more immediate ceasefire. It was defeated when it failed to gain sufficient votes, hence its abstention from vote on the main resolution.
• In response, Israeli ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan said the resolution “will have no meaning in practice” and that Israel “is acting according to international law, while the Hamas terrorists will not read the resolution at all and will not act on it.”
• The Israeli Foreign Ministry also responded, saying there would be “no room for extended humanitarian pauses as long as 239 hostages are still in the hands of Hamas terrorists.”
• The vote was the first time the council succeeded in passing a resolution since October 7^th, with four previous resolutions having failed – one introduced by Brazil was vetoed by the US, a US resolution was vetoed by Russia and China, and two Russian-drafted resolutions failed to get the minimum yay votes.

Context: From the Israeli perspective the Shifa hospital has been considered an infamous Hamas stronghold for over a decade.

• With IDF advances over the last week, Hamas had time to remove the most incriminating evidence and for key commanders to escape among the civilians. Meanwhile, searches continue for tunnel shafts within the hospital complex.
• Whilst not capturing or killing senior Hamas leadership, the IDF’s more cautious approach to the hospital bought it important credit, especially with the Biden administration, allowing them to continue operations.
• Hamas deliberately used the hospital as a base, precisely because they felt it gave them immunity from aerial attack. It could also use the hospital’s power supply for operating the underground tunnel system.
• The IDF’s public campaign of messages to the Gazan population and direct conversations with hospital staff led to the evacuation of around 50,000 people who were in the hospital compound a week ago, down to an estimated 1,500, roughly half patients, half staff.
• In parallel to the elite commandos that continue to search the hospital, the IDF also brought in vital medical equipment, including incubators for the premature babies, and to ensure they keep their power supply.
• Israel’s position remains that a pause or extended ceasefire is out of the question as long as Hamas and its fellow Gazan terrorists retain the hostages.
• It is also disinclined to provide Hamas time to regroup, re-arm and jeopardise the Israeli gains in the northern Strip, and is concerned that, based on experience from previous rounds of fighting, international pressure will only increase if it re-engages after an extensive pause.
• In the north of Israel, Hezbollah continued to launch rockets into Israel. Yesterday 20 rockets landed in open areas.
  • One landed in the town of Shlomi.
  • Three anti-tank missiles were fired toward IDF positions on the border.
  • In all these instances, the IDF returned fire to the source.
• This morning there was a terror attack on the tunnels road south of Jerusalem. Initial reports suggest three terrorists opened fire, four people were injured one in critical condition, the three gunmen were shot and killed.

Looking ahead: The search of the hospital is expected to continue. In order to maintain legitimacy the IDF is conscious to keep their activity as transparent as possible, and continue to allow international media to be embedded among the troops.

• With the IDF in control of northern Gaza there remains significant Hamas military infrastructure in the south. Eastern neighbourhoods of the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis have been warned to evacuate their homes to proscribed safe zones elsewhere in the south.
• It is anticipated that the UK’s new Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, will visit Israel soon.

Lebanon: Sunday saw the most serious escalation in the north. In a series of attacks 18 Israelis; soldiers and civilians were injured. In a series of attacks, 18 Israelis – soldiers and civilians – were injured.

• In Moshav Dolev, four vehicles suffered a direct hit from anti-tank missile fire, and ten civilians were wounded. Of the wounded, six worked for the Electricity Corporation and were there to make repairs. One of the workers is in critical condition and five others in serious condition.
• In the area of Manara, seven soldiers were wounded from an anti-tank missile.
• Around 15 rockets were fired towards the Western Galilee, including Acco and Kiryat Bialik. Four were intercepted, the rest fell in open areas.
• There were also rockets and mortars fired at other areas, including Kiryat Shmone and Gornot Hagalil.
• A further two or three attacks on IDF soldiers have not yet been confirmed.
• In response to the attacks, the IDF used an array of ground and air to strike a number of Hezbollah targets. At least three launch cells were targeted, along with other military infrastructure inside Lebanon.
• For the first time since the war began, more air raid sirens were heard in the north than in southern Israel.
• This morning, at least 20 more rockets have been fired from Lebanon into Northern Israel, with no injuries reported yet.

Gaza Strip: On Sunday, the IDF provided 300 litres of fuel for urgent medical purposes for the Shifa Hospital, however Hamas prevented the hospital from receiving the fuel.

• The fuel is currently outside the compound in jerry cans. Although the IDF are not yet fully in control of the area, they are said to be guarding the fuel so it is not expropriated by Hamas.
• In parallel, the IDF opened an additional passage to assist Gazan civilians to evacuate from the Shifa, Rantisi and Nasser hospitals
• The IDF are in direct contact with the Shifa Hospital director to coordinate safe passage allowing civilians to evacuate, on foot and by ambulances.
• Last week, there were around 60,000 people in the hospital compound, now down to 1,000.
• During the fighting, the IDF continued their impressive tactical successes, revealing how intercepting real time intel and relaying to the troops on the ground allowed infantry soldiers to kill seven terrorists within ten minutes.
• The IDF has struck over 15,000 terror targets, destroyed over 100 terror tunnel shafts and more than 6000 weapons while operating within the Gaza Strip.
• In the last day, two more soldiers have been killed, taking the total to 44 since the ground operation began.
• Israel estimates over 3,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, but neither side has released details. According to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, over 10,000 Palestinians have been killed.
• Israel is jointly coordinating efforts to bring in humanitarian aid, along with the US, Egypt, and the UN. More than 820 trucks containing approximately 13,200 tons of aid have entered into Gaza, including over 3,000 tons of food, 1,720+ tons of medical equipment, 600+ tons of equipment for temporary shelters and over 1.15 million litres of water.

Context: The escalation in the north compounds the strategic dilemmas for Israeli decision makers.

• The IDF remains focused on targeting and decommissioning Hamas military infrastructure, whilst pressuring Hamas to release hostages.
• In theory, the IDF has capacity to fight a second front simultaneously, with only 10 per cent of the Israeli Air Force committed to the south. However, the preference until now has been to keep the focus on the south and only then to turn to the north.
• There is a consensus in Israel that the northern border communities that have already been evacuated will not return to their homes unless the Hezbollah threat, and specifically their elite Radwan fighters remain poised on the border, is neutralised.
• The IDF’s objective is therefore to remove that immediate threat and push Hezbollah north, beyond the Litani River.
• There are efforts, led by the US and France, to find a diplomatic solution to remove Hezbollah from the south, but there is limited expectation this can succeed.
• Israel’s approach until now has been to target cells that launch attacks, either during or after, even sometimes beforehand. In this way that been These efforts have been successful in decommissioning Hezbollah’s capacity and have so far killed 73 Hezbollah operatives.
• Part of the calculation is how to respond to every attack in a calibrated manner that causes damage without provoking Hezbollah into a wider conflict.
• Following Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah’s speech on Saturday, there was hope that this signified Hezbollah was deterred from a wider confrontation for three reasons:
  • Hezbollah has lost the element of surprise to launch an invasion of their Radwan force. The IDF is heavily deployed in the border, and the closest civilian communities have been evacuated.
  • The US military posture serves as a stark warning that an escalation will be met by a US response.
  • They see the pictures from Gaza, and hear Defence Minister Gallant’s warning to Beirut.
• However, others see Sunday’s attacks as evidence of Hezbollah’s objective to ratchet up the pressure on Israel, occupy their forces, threaten Israeli civilians, all whilst keeping the conflict below the threshold of all-out war.
• Meanwhile, there is ongoing speculation over a potential prisoner exchange. The latest formulation suggests 80 hostages; children, women and sick elderly would be released over a three to five day ceasefire which would allow increased aid to enter the Strip, including fuel. Israel would also release women and minors held in Israeli prisons.

Looking ahead: Only once the hospitals have been evacuated can the IDF fully target the terror infrastructure underneath.

• There is speculation that Israel is keen for Tony Blair to represent the international community and take the role of humanitarian coordinator for the Gaza Strip.,
• The Israeli government understands the need to restore the sense of security to residents of both the north and the south before they are able to return home.

Regional: Israeli and American forces reportedly carried out separate airstrikes on Iranian proxies in Syria killing 12 fighters.

• US officials said that two F-15 fighter jets dropped multiple bombs on a weapons storage facility near Maysulun in Deir el-Zour in eastern Syria that was known to be used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
• A senior US defence official said the strike was aimed at “disrupting and degrading the capabilities of groups directly responsible for attacking US forces in the region” by specifically targeting facilities associated with the Revolutionary Guard.
• The Pentagon says 45 American troops have been injured in Iraq and Syria in attacks by Iranian-backed militia during the past month. Of those, 32 were at al-Tanf garrison in southeastern Syria, with a mix of minor injuries and traumatic brain injuries, and 13 were at al-Asad air base in western Iraq.
• US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said attacks against US troops must stop. “The President has no higher priority than the safety of US personnel, and he directed today’s action to make clear that the United States will defend itself, its personnel, and its interests”.
• “If attacks by Iran’s proxies against US forces continue, we will not hesitate to take further necessary measures to protect our people,” Austin added.
• The US has 900 troops in Syria, and 2,500 more in neighbouring Iraq. Since October 7, the US has sent warships and fighter aircraft to the region, including two aircraft carriers.
• On 26 October, US forces attacked two facilities used by the IRGC and groups it backs.
• Also Wednesday, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said they shot down an American drone. “Our air defences were able to down an American MQ-9 while it was carrying out hostile surveillance and espionage activities in Yemeni territorial waters as part of American military support” for Israel.
• In separate news, Syrian official news agency SANA said Israeli air strikes hit military sites in southern Syria, causing material damage.
• Also yesterday, the IDF said jets struck a number of Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon in response to recent rocket and missile attacks on the border. Separately, the IDF says it struck a cell in southern Lebanon preparing to carry out an attack near the Biranit camp.

Gaza: IDF infantry, tank and special-ops units continued to operate in and around Gaza City.

• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said, “Hamas has lost control in the north. The Hamas leadership is cut off. They are sitting in bunkers, cut off. Cut off from the public, cut off from their terrorists who are fighting on the ground against our forces and being killed.”
• The IDF announced that two soldiers from the Nahal Brigade’s 931st Battalion were killed yesterday, taking the number of soldiers killed in action during the ground campaign to 35.
• The IDF says it has found and destroyed some 130 tunnel shafts in the Gaza Strip since the ground operation began last month, including one yesterday adjacent to a UNRWA school in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Despite Hamas efforts to prevent them doing so, yesterday some 50,000 Gazans moved south as Israel extended the 10 am to 2 pm window to travel along the humanitarian corridor by an hour.
• Speaking to the New York Times, Khalil al-Hayya, a member of Hamas’ politburo in Qatar dismissed the idea the group wanted to govern Gaza, and expressed support for endless conflict.
• “Hamas’s goal is not to run Gaza and to bring it water and electricity and such,” says al-Hayya. “This battle was not because we wanted fuel or laborers,” he adds. “It did not seek to improve the situation in Gaza. This battle is to completely overthrow the situation.”
• Hamas media consultant Taher El-Nounou told the paper. “I hope that the state of war with Israel will become permanent on all the borders, and that the Arab world will stand with us.”
• A Hamas terrorist captured after the massacre on October 7 admitted that the group uses ambulances to evacuate fighters. “Al-Qassam have their own ambulances, some of which are located on military bases. The ambulances look like civilian ambulances so they don’t arouse suspicions and are not attacked by Israel,” said one of the captives during his interrogation. “During the fighting, the ambulances are used for things including evacuated wounded fighters. They are also used to deliver food, IEDs and weapons because it is a secure way to transfer those things.”

Hostages: Talks are reportedly underway for the release of a dozen hostages held by Hamas, including six Americans, in return for a three-day ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

• A source close to Hamas said that “Talks revolve around the release of 12 hostages, half of them Americans, in exchange for a three-day humanitarian pause, to enable Hamas to release the hostages and to enable Egypt an extended [period of time] to deliver humanitarian aid,” the source claims.
• Other reports suggest that Qatar is mediating negotiations between Israel and Hamas for the potential release of 10-15 hostages held in Gaza in exchange for a short ceasefire.
• Families of the hostages said in response that “We will welcome the return of every hostage who is in Gaza. However, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum adheres to its position that any movement towards a ceasefire has to include the release of all of the hostages from Gaza.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “I’d like to put to rest all kinds of false rumors we’re hearing from all kinds of directions, and reiterate one clear thing: there will be no ceasefire without the release of our hostages.”

What happened: As Israel’s ground manoeuvre enters its twelfth day today, the IDF continues to close in on Shati, in the central Gaza Strip, as well as on Shifa Hospital.

• PM Netanyahu said yesterday that the IDF has reached deeper into Gaza than Hamas ever imagined. “In the south, the war is moving forward with force that Hamas has never seen… Gaza City is surrounded. We are operating within it, we are deepening the pressure on Hamas every hour, every day… Hamas is discovering that we are reaching places they thought we would never reach.”
• As Israel continued its advance, thousands of Palestinian civilians moved southward in a convoy yesterday waving white flags – heeding multiple IDF calls to do so.
• Humanitarian aid also continued to enter Gaza. Yesterday, 96 trucks carrying international humanitarian aid were transferred to Gaza via the Rafah crossing. These included 15 carrying medical supplies, 31 carrying food, eight carrying water, and 19 carrying supplies for shelters.
• As of yesterday, 665 trucks have entered Gaza, with deliveries of vital humanitarian aid. This includes over 3,000 tons of food, over 1,720 tons of medical equipment, over 600 tons of equipment for temporary shelters, and over 1.15 million litres of water.
• An IDF soldier was killed in fighting in the northern Gaza Strip yesterday, taking the total number of soldiers killed since the start of the ground offensive to 32.
• During the fighting, IDF troops spotted a Hamas squad hiding in a mosque. They were killed with air support as soon as they left the mosque and headed for tunnel shafts. Hamas has fired anti-tank missiles at IDF troops from several civilian locations, including a hospital.
• The IDF also reported that in the course of a raid on a school that had served as a base for rocket fire and other terrorist activity, troops from the 402nd Brigade killed a number of terrorists, and found several rocket launchers and a large trove of other weapons on school grounds.
• The IDF this morning announced that an airstrike overnight killed Muhsin Abu Zina, “one of the leaders of weapons production” for Hamas who specialised in manufacturing “strategic weapons and rockets.”
• In the north, more than 20 rockets were fired yesterday from Lebanon into Israel, as US diplomats continue to try to remove Hezbollah from the spiraling fight.
• IAF jets demolished Hezbollah sites including a weapons warehouse, rocket fire installations, infrastructure for directing terror attacks and more.
• Netanyahu warned Lebanon’s Hezbollah that it would be making the “greatest mistake of its life” if it opens a new full-on war front.
• During a press conference in Beirut after meeting Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, US envoy Amos Hochstein said that “the United States does not want to see conflict in Gaza escalating and expanding into Lebanon. Restoring calm along the southern border is of utmost importance to the United States and it should be the highest priority for both Lebanon and Israel.”

Context: President Biden has reportedly urged Netanyahu to agree to a three-day pause in the fighting in Gaza to facilitate progress in releasing some of the hostages being held by Hamas.

• According to the proposal on the table, Hamas will release 10-15 hostages and will use the three-day pause to verify the identity of all the hostages it and other groups in the Gaza Strip are holding, and will provide a list of their names.
• Hamas issued a statement on Tuesday announcing that it had been prepared to release 12 foreign nationals who are being held hostage, but Israel stymied that.
• Netanyahu does not trust Hamas to keep its word. In 2014, Hamas attacked IDF troops in Rafah during a 2014 humanitarian ceasefire, killing several soldiers and kidnapping Hadar Goldin. Netanyahu is also reportedly worried that Israel won’t be able to renew its war efforts after a significant lull in the fighting.
• Israeli officials believe that Hamas holds roughly 180 hostages, Palestinian Islamic Jihad holds roughly 40 hostages, and another 20 hostages are being held by crime organisations, mainly in the southern Gaza Strip.
• While Hamas’s ability to launch rockets on Israel has gradually diminished alongside the Israeli advance, sirens sounded yesterday in the Tel Aviv area and in Rishon Lezion, while today saw a rocket attack on the Kissufim area, adjacent to central Gaza.
• The US continues to clarify its position on the ‘Day After’ the war.
• State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said that the United States agrees “there is no returning to the October 6 status quo,” adding “generally speaking, we do not support the reoccupation of Gaza and neither does Israel…our viewpoint is that Palestinians must be at the forefront of these decisions and Gaza is Palestinian land and it will remain Palestinian land.”
• She added “Israel and the region must be secure and Gaza should and can no longer be a base from which to launch terror attacks against the people of Israel or anyone else.”

Looking ahead: The coming days could prove to be decisive regarding the fight against Hamas and the American-Qatari effort to secure a hostage deal.

• Some believe that beyond that point, Israel is unlikely to be able to withstand American pressure for a ceasefire, especially if a hostage deal is on the table.
• Foreign Minister Cohen will head to Brussels tomorrow, along with families of Israeli hostages, where he will speak in front of the European parliament.

What’s happened: On the 31st day of the war, IDF troops in the Gaza Strip are now surrounding Gaza City.

• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari said, “IDF troops… have reached as far as the beach in the southern part of Gaza City and they have encircled Gaza City. Essentially, today there is north Gaza and south Gaza.”
• The IDF also confirmed it has struck 450 military targets belonging to Hamas in the last 24 hours.
• Hagari also presented IDF video evidence of Hamas using an underground shaft in the grounds of Sheikh Hamad hospital. In a second clip, gunmen are seen shooting from the hospital.
• As the IDF increases the pressure on Hamas, Hagari revealed the extensive efforts Israel has made to warn Gazan civilians to leave the combat zone via safe passage to the south.
  • The IDF dropped over 1.5 million leaflets over Gaza, over time colour coded to emphasise the immediacy of military ground operations.
  • They made over 19,500 phone calls warning of approaching battle.
  • Over 4.3 million text messages and almost 6 million voice recordings.
• Relating to the hostages, Hagari emphasised they remain Israel’s top national priority. He said, “we, in the IDF and in the Shin Bet and in all the security agencies, haven’t forgotten. We are making efforts around the clock. We collect every piece of information, we seize every operational opportunity.”
• Last night Hamas were still able to launch several rockets towards Tel Aviv and the centre of Israel.
• In the north, Hezbollah fired two heavy waves of rocket fire towards the northern town of Kiryat Shmona. In the first wave one Israeli civilian was killed. In the second wave a house took a direct hit, but the man inside made it into his safe room and was unhurt.
• Hezbollah claims the strikes on Kirya Shmona were in response to Israel striking a civilian vehicle in southern Lebanon. The IDF was targeting a terror cell, but are checking the details of the strike.
• US Secretary of State Blinken continued his shuttle diplomacy and was in Baghdad yesterday, where he met with the Iraqi prime minister. Later the same day Prime Minster al-Sudani travelled to Tehran and met Iranian President Raisi, presumably to pass on a message from the US.
• In parallel, the US has continued to augment its military deployment and last night sent a nuclear submarine to the region.

Context: It has taken just over a week for the IDF to surround Gaza City, which includes Hamas military strongholds and presumably the most senior commanders.

• The operation is going to plan, though commanders stress they will need time to complete their objectives.
• They now need to enter slowly and cautiously and target Hamas’s command and operational structure, much of which is underground.
• The Sheikh Hamad hospital was built by Qatar. The release of the incriminating footage serves to prepare the international community for the next stage of fighting. It exposes how Hamas uses its own citizens as a human shield and why it will be necessary for Israeli forces to target the area. Thirdly, it is meant to highlight for Qatar how they have been manipulated by Hamas.
• Hagari also presented IDF recordings of an intercepted phone call between Hamas officials discussing the appropriation of fuel reserves designated for another hospital.
• Israel maintains that there will be no humanitarian ceasefire until progress is made regarding the hostages. This includes no supply of fuel, which would be usurped by Hamas and used to further their war effort.
• However, it is possible they will agree to a pause, but will hope to make it conditional on progress for the release of hostages.
• Sieges are not prohibited under international humanitarian law, though their conduct is subject to the obligation to protect the civilian population. The UK’s “Joint Service Manual of the Law of Armed conflict”, for example, notes that: “Siege is a legitimate method of warfare as long as it is directed against enemy armed forces,” while also noting that “the normal rules on precautions in attack apply.”
• According to COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activity of the Territories), international organisations continue to bring food to the Strip through the Rafah crossing. So far, the entry of 201 trucks of food has been coordinated.
  • Today, 75 trucks carrying international humanitarian aid were inspected and transferred to Gaza via the Rafah crossing. The aid is intended for the population in the southern part of the Strip.
  • So far, 526 trucks carrying humanitarian aid have been inspected at Nitzana crossing, and transferred to Gaza via the Rafah crossing.
  • On Sunday during the declared humanitarian corridor published by the IDF, Hamas fired towards IDF forces securing the corridor. This was a deliberate act done in order to try and prevent the people from moving south. Hamas continues to endanger the population and tries to prevent their movement.
  • Today, the corridor was opened at 10 am enabling hundreds of residents to cross and move south.

Looking ahead: Entering into Gaza City could be the most dangerous phase of the mission. With narrow allies, Israeli armour will not be able to enter, so troops may need to enter on foot.

• Israel is encouraging Egypt to facilitate Palestinian patients to cross over and receive treatment in a field hospital on the Egyptian side of the border.
• IDF Chief of Staff Lt Gen Halevi visited the Northern Command yesterday, and related to concerns saying, “we have heard a great deal about the feelings of the residents in the north. We are ready at any moment to switch to an offensive in the north.”

What happened: The IDF has advanced another stage in its war against Hamas, expanding its ground activity further into the northern Gaza Strip.

• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that “The IDF soldiers completed the encirclement of Gaza City, the hub of the Hamas terrorist group.”
• He added that the troops have “been eliminating terrorists in face-to-face battles, and everywhere where there is combat, even if it’s hard, the IDF and its soldiers have the upper hand. We are constantly working and aiming fire from the air and sea.”
• The IDF said that around 130 Hamas terrorists were killed in gun battles Thursday afternoon and early evening.
• This morning, the IDF said it has killed the commander of Hamas’s Sabra-Tel al-Hawa battalion, Mustafa Dalloul, in an overnight airstrike.
• Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel possessed advanced technology to destroy Hamas’s tunnels. “We have unique solutions to get to all the tunnels and dismantle them from underground. We’re ready to do so. The terrorists will have two choices: they can die in the tunnels or on the surface from our troops’ gunfire, or they can surrender unconditionally. There is no third option.”
• Four soldiers were killed fighting in the Gaza Strip yesterday, bringing the death toll since Israel began its ground offensive against Hamas to 23.
• Missile barrages were fired yesterday setting sirens off in Rishon Lezion, Lod, Ramle, Rosh Ha’ayin and Beersheva. No further rocket fire on Israel has been reported since 9.00pm last night.
• The US is reportedly flying drones over Gaza to help gather intelligence on the locations of hostages.
• As Israel comes under increasing international pressure for a humanitarian pause, Hagari said “the term ‘ceasefire’ is not at all on the table at the moment.”
• Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said that Israel would allow fuel to enter Gaza via the Rafah crossing should it determine that hospitals have run out. “We check the situation in the Strip every day. For over a week, they tell us that the fuel in the hospitals will run out, and it hasn’t. We’ll see when that day comes. Fuel will be transferred, with oversight, to the hospitals, and we will do everything to ensure that it doesn’t reach Hamas infrastructure and won’t serve [Hamas’s] war aims.”
• In the north, last night the military attacked Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanese territory in retaliation for attack on Israel in which two soldiers were injured in the Mount Dov area on the Lebanon border.
• Separately, an Israeli tank shelled a Hezbollah anti-tank guided squad in southern Lebanon overnight.
• IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said that the army was well prepared in every sector. “We are employing less than half the Air Force’s power in the Gaza Strip. Most of its strength is prepared and ready, with bombs attached to the wings, to depart and attack in other sectors as well as soon as it’s needed,”
• In the West Bank, Palestinian news agency Wafa reported that seven Palestinians were killed overnight by Israeli army fire in Jenin and the al-Fawwar refugee camp near Hebron.

Context: Pressure is building on Israel to agree to a temporary humanitarian truce in Gaza to enable a supply of aid and to evacuate the civilian population as well as to potentially facilitate an exchange deal involving the hostages.

• Yesterday, the New York Times wrote that Secretary of State Blinken will pressure Israel to agree to short lulls to enable the safe passage of humanitarian aid and for the hostages’ release. White House sources said that Blinken will relay this message to Netanyahu and other officials.
• However, in remarks delivered on a trip to London, US Vice-President Harris said “we are going to continue to stand with Israel’s right to defend itself,” and that “we are not going to create any conditions on the support that we are giving Israel…”
• The UAE is also trying to make intense efforts to achieve a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Noura al Kaabi said at a Abu Dhabi conference “As we continue working to stop this war we cannot ignore the wider context and the necessity to turn down the regional temperature that is approaching a boiling point.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly considering accepting the US demand for a temporary cease-fire, but Israeli officials said that it would depend on the circumstances.
• NBC reported yesterday that American and Israeli officials believe that Hamas has more than 750,000 litres of fuel, which it is holding onto to use to fire rockets and operate generators in the tunnels. Last week the IDF released images last week of half a million liters of diesel it said the terror group was holding in the Strip.
• While the assessment remains that Hezbollah does not currently seek all out war with Israel, the military and security establishments are proceeding with caution.

Looking ahead: Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is giving a speech this afternoon as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken lands in Israel.

• In clashes on the northern border, more than 60 Hezbollah terrorists have been killed. The commander of the Iranian Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, the successor to Qassem Soleimani, has been in Beirut since October 8 to potentially coordinate a wider war with Israel.
• Blinken landed in Israel today, his third visit since October 7. He is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog and to attend a meeting of the war cabinet. Before departing, Blinken said Washington is focused on the two-state solution.