Peace Partners, Normalisation and Coexistence

Updated June 30, 2025

Speculation and pressure to secure hostage deal

What’s happened: On Sunday, Prime Minister Netanyahu alluded to the latest diplomatic moves being discussed behind the scenes.

Netanyahu suggested, “that many opportunities have now opened in the wake of this victory. adding, “first of all, to extricate the hostages. Obviously, we are going to have to solve the Gaza issue as well, to defeat Hamas, but I expect that we will accomplish both missions.”
In an interview on Fox News President Trump said that other countries had recently reached out to him and had asked to join the Abraham Accords. “We have some really great countries in there right now, and I think we’re going to start loading them up, because Iran was the primary problem.”
Last night the forum of security ministers met to discuss the war in Gaza. The meeting ended without any decision having been made.
Whilst in Gaza, British-Israeli soldier Sgt. Yisrael Natan Rosenfeld, was killed yesterday by a improvised explosive device (IED) in the northern Gaza Strip. He is 880^th IDF soldier to fall since October 2023.
On Sunday the IDF confirmed that Hakham Muhammad Issa Al-Issa, a senior Hamas military wing official, considered one of the architects of the October 7 massacre, had been eliminated. Issa had played a key role in military training and weapons production.

Context: There is renewed hope that, now the war with Iran is over, the government can prioritise securing the release of the 50 hostages, 20 of whom are thought to be alive, who have now been held for 633 days.

Commentators have noted that, in his comments last night, Netanyahu for the first time cited the release of the hostages as the primary objective, rather than the defeat of Hamas.
The change in Netanyahu’s language could also be a result of the position taken by Chief of Staff Zamir, who said that the IDF is close to achieving the objectives it was given in Gaza.
It is understood, the IDF are close to controlling 75 per cent of the Gaza Strip and can’t move much further without risking the hostages. Whist by remaining static they are susceptible to continued Hamas attacks.
Netanyahu’s comments followed the optimistic posts by President Trump and his talk about a possible ceasefire and further diplomatic developments.
As well as ongoing speculation around Saudi Arabia there are suggestions that Syria would be open to normalisation with Israel.
According to the latest reports in Arab media, Syria is demanding Israeli recognition of Ahmed al-Sharaa’s regime, a withdrawal from the buffer zone and the territories that Israel took over in southern Syria, and diplomatic arrangements in southern Syria.
At the same time, sources from diplomatic circles indicate that Syria is prepared to recognise Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Over the weekend a Syrian official said they would not rule out the possibility of a meeting between President al-Sharaa and Prime Minister Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September.
Despite ongoing talks via Egyptian and Qatari mediators no breakthrough has been achieved yet. Hamas still refuses to agree to a partial deal without unequivocal guarantees about the war’s end.
Israel has accepted the US proposed Witkoff deal, but so far Netanyahu, has refused to agree to end the war completely, without Hamas disarming and removal from power.
The Hamas leadership remains in disarray, now compounded by Iran’s defeat — an event with direct implications for both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which were part of the Iranian proxy network and benefited from its technical, military, and financial support.
In parallel, the government has approved the return of residents from eight more communities who were displaced after being attacked by Hamas on October 7, allowing them to return to their homes near the Gaza border. This is another indication that the security threat posed by Hamas has diminished.
Despite the presence of hard-right ministers opposed to ending the war with Hamas, their influence appears to be waning, as the latest polling suggests that many prospective Ben Gvir voters have defected to Likud, while Smotrich continues to poll below the electoral threshold.

Looking ahead: Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer will arrive in Washington today, where he is expected to meet senior White House officials to discuss ending the war in Gaza and the possible expansion of the Abraham Accords.

The security cabinet are expected to reconvene later today.
There is speculation that if successful, Netanyahu will travel to Washington in two weeks’ time.
After his court appearances this week were cancelled, further delays are expected, particularly if he does travel to Washington. After that the court is scheduled to break for its summer recess.

March 18, 2025

Operation Strength and Sword begins as Israel attacks dozens of Hamas targets

What’s happened: The IDF has launched a series of what it termed preemptive strikes in Gaza, targeting leadership officials, mid-ranking military Hamas commanders, and terrorist infrastructure.

An Israeli official said that the strikes were based on Hamas’s readiness to execute terror attacks, build up force, and re-arm.
The Prime Minister’s Office announced that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz instructed the IDF “to act with strength against the Hamas terrorist organisation in the Gaza Strip.” This follows Hamas’s repeated refusal to release our hostages and its rejection of all the proposals it received from US President’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and from the mediators.
The statement added that: “The IDF is currently targeting Hamas terrorist organisation objectives across the Gaza Strip, with the goal of achieving the war objectives as determined by the political leadership, including the release of all our hostages – both the living and the fallen.”
Defence Minister Katz said “If Hamas does not release all the hostages, the gates of hell will be opened on Gaza and Hamas’s murderers and rapists will encounter the IDF at an intensity they haven’t known until today.”
Israel has stated that at least five prominent Hamas officials were eliminated in last night’s air strikes. These include:
- Issam al-Da’alis, considered to be one of Hamas’s chief administrators who effectively served as Hamas’s prime minister in Gaza.
- Bahjat Abu Sultan, who held a rank equivalent to brigadier-general, was responsible for domestic operations in Gaza and was considered to be a prominent Hamas leader.
- Ahmad Omar Al-Taha, who served as the director general of Hamas’s Justice Ministry in the Gaza Strip.
- Mahmoud Abu Watfeh, who held the rank of major-general and served as the director general of Hamas’s Interior Ministry in Gaza (the commander of Hamas’s security services).
- Hamas politburo member Abu Obaida Al Jimasi, was a Hamas leader who oversaw the administration of the southern Gaza Strip. He had not been seen in public since July 2023.
The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry has that said that 326 Palestinians have been killed in the strikes.
Hamas said that Israel would bear “full responsibility for the repercussions of its treacherous aggression in Gaza,” which it said has “exposed the hostages in Gaza to an unknown fate. We hold the criminal Netanyahu and the Nazi Zionist occupation fully responsible for the consequences of the treacherous aggression against Gaza and the defenceless civilians.”
The attack was approved yesterday at a security consultation attended by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Katz, Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer, Chief of Staff Zamir, GSS Director Bar, the director of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, and other high-ranking officials.
According to reports, all of them unanimously supported the attack after the hostage release negotiations reached an impasse.
The preemptive offensive plan was kept in closed circles in the IDF to create an element of surprise and deception.
White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the Trump administration was consulted by the Israelis prior to the strikes. “As President Trump has made clear, Hamas, the Houthis, Iran – all those who seek to terrorise not just Israel but the US – will see a price to pay, and all hell will break loose.”
Leavitt added: “The Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran and Iranian backed terror proxies should take President Trump very seriously when he says he’s not afraid to stand for law-abiding people and stand up for the US and our friend and ally Israel.”
The hostage family forum has expressed its concern that the offensive could endanger the lives of the remaining hostages in Gaza and have demanded a meeting with the prime minister, the defence minister and the head of the negotiating team “in which [the officials] will clarify how they can guarantee that hostages won’t be affected by the military pressure and how they are planning to get them home.”
This morning, the head of the Arabic-language IDF Spokesperson Unit issued a statement calling on residents of the eastern Gaza Strip in areas adjacent to the Israeli border to leave their homes and head westward.

Context: The offensive comes against the background of negotiations that took place in Qatar last week between a delegation from Israel and the Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari, and UAE foreign ministers, in which the parties reportedly discussed a version of the ‘Witkoff Plan’.

This plan included:
- Hamas releasing ten hostages (presumably all will be alive).
- In exchange, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners (at a higher ratio than earlier deals) including convicted terrorists serving long sentences.
- Israel will resume the entrance of Humanitarian Aid and amenities, potentially at a greater volume than before.
- The ceasefire will be extended for a couple of months that will include Passover and Israel’s Independence Day (1^st May).
However, little to no progress has been made on this proposal.
It also comes against the background of the IDF detecting an irregular development in the Gaza Strip in recent days, which might point to Hamas preparations either to launch an attack or to raid Israeli territory. Over the last few weeks, the IDF has tracked preparations being made by Hamas and others for a resumption of hostilities in Gaza Strip. This included the recruitment of hundreds of new terrorists, the distribution of arms and repairs that were made to the command-and-control mechanisms in Hamas’s various battalions.
Despite the tension between the prime minister and Shin Bet Director Bar (Netanyahu has announced his intention to fire Bar) the latter was present alongside the Chief of Staff during the operation.
The renewed strikes take place in a different context to the past war against Hamas: Hezbollah has been decimated in the north, which allows the IDF greater capacity to focus its forces on Gaza; and the Trump administration will likely give the IDF more leeway than did the Biden administration.

Looking ahead: It remains to be seen whether the operation will expand to ground troops reentering Gaza.

If Israel were to re-take Gaza, it may adopt a different approach to the delivery of Humanitarian Aid. The new IDF Chief of Staff, Zamir, has proposed that the IDF will take over the delivery of aid to Gazans as the only way to ensure Hamas does not profit from the aid. The previous chief of staff was reluctant to take this on, out of concern that it be perceived as military responsibility for the civilian population.

March 13, 2025

Efforts continue in Doha to reach hostage deal extension

What’s happening: White House envoy to the Middle East Witkoff has joined the talks in Qatar to try and secure a deal to release more hostages.

The talks are being held with the Israeli delegation alongside the Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari and UAE foreign ministers.
According to reports, the focus of the negotiations is a version of the ‘Witkoff Plan’ that includes:
- Hamas releasing ten hostages (presumably all will be alive).
- In exchange Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners (at a higher ratio than earlier deals) including convicted terrorists serving long sentences.
- Israel will resume the entrance of Humanitarian Aid and amenities, potentially at a greater volume than before.
- The ceasefire will be extended for a couple of months that will include Passover and Israel’s Independence Day (1^st May).
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu held consultations with the Israeli negotiators to coordinate their stance ahead of the Doha talks.
He also held a meeting with senior security officials to approve military plans for the Gaza Strip if the negotiations fail.
Israel media reported that despite the publicised tension with the prime minister, head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar attended both meetings.
In Washington President Trump appeared to backtrack on his plan to resettle Gazans outside of the Strip, saying, “nobody’s expelling any Palestinians.”

Context: There remains a high level of anguish in Israeli society to secure the release of all the remaining hostages.

This has been compounded by the accounts of recently released hostages that describe horrific conditions of their captivity, including being kept underground, beaten and tortured, and fed morsels of sometimes rotten food.
59 hostages remain in captivity now for 524 days. Of them only 24 are alive, with 35 thought to have been killed.
As a result of information garnered from released hostages, the family of Avinatan Or received their first indication that he is still alive, but being held in horrific conditions.
In the absence of the agreement, there has not yet been a return to fighting, but the IDF has presented a plan to the government as a contingency. The credibility of the military threat, which may be more intense that previous fighting, is intended to pressure Hamas into a deal.
Alongside military action, the new IDF Chief of Staff, Lt Gen Zamir is proposing that the IDF will take over the delivery of aid to Gazans as the only way to ensure Hamas does not profit from the aid. The previous chief of staff was reluctant to take this on, out of concern that it be perceived as military responsibility for the civilian population.
Hamas appear to be particularly satisfied with the revelation that they held direct talks with a US officials, as this broke the long held diplomatic veto by western liberal members of the international community. However US officials played down its significance with Secretary of State Rubio referring to it as a “one-off” that “hasn’t borne fruit.”
There remains residual concerns that if no agreement is reached the US will do a side deal to secure the remaining hostages with US citizenship (Edan Alexander and the bodies of four murdered hostages). It is also possible that they could be released by Hamas as a goodwill gesture, that could further appeal to President Trump.
Overall, it appears US and Israel remain well coordinated. During a meeting in Jeddah earlier this week, Secretary Rubio told Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, that the US insists that Hamas have no role in any solution for postwar Gaza. Similarly Israeli Foreign Minister Saar has again emphasised that “the war in Gaza will not end without the demilitarisation of Gaza Strip.”
Israel is caught in a bind regarding the Witkoff framework. On one hand, the release of ten more living hostages is highly sought. On the other, it calls into question the fate of those who remain. From Hamas’s perspective, they could agree to this deal, as long as they retain some of the captives as an insurance policy to ensure their survival.

Looking ahead: Despite no breakthrough yet, the fact that the Israeli delegation has not been recalled gives hope that there is still hope a deal can be reached. The next few days are once more seen as critical.

Later today the IDF will present their latest internal investigation, this time focusing on kibbutz Nir Oz.
According to consistent polling, there remains a large majority of the Israeli public in favour of forming an independent state commission of inquiry into October 7th. Last night President Herzog once more endorsed his support for such a commission. So far the government has been unwilling to sanction it.

March 12, 2025

US initiates Israel-Lebanon talks

12/03/2025

What’s happening: Representatives of Israel, Lebanon, US, and France met yesterday in Naqoura, just on the Lebanese side of the Israel-Lebanon border to launch a negotiated process to resolve outstanding disputes.

The meeting was aimed to ensure the war that was effectively ended by a November 2024 ceasefire cannot restart.
The initiative is led by US Deputy Middle East Envoy Morgan Ortagus, who issued a statement yesterday from the State Department describing the talks as “military to military,” presumably to ensure that no Lebanese party can be accused of “normalisation.”
Israel Prime Minister’s Office added: “In coordination with the US and as a gesture to the new President of Lebanon, Israel has agreed to release five Lebanese detainees.”

Context: The ceasefire on the Israeli-Lebanese border has been in effect since November 2024. It was brokered by the outgoing Biden administration, and its implementation followed an intense escalation in the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel.

Fighting between the two sides erupted on October 8^th 2023, when Hezbollah began launching rockets on Israeli cities and military bases in a show of solidarity with Hamas which had carried out a massacre in southern Israel the day before.
The Israeli response intensified last summer, including Israel’s beeper operation, the destruction of most of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal, the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and an Israeli land invasion of southern Lebanon.
The terms of the ceasefire allowed Israel to carry out offensive military action against Hezbollah where the latter is violating the ceasefire or operating in southern Lebanon inside the areas where it committed to evacuating.
The IDF’s strikes against Hezbollah rocket launchers and weapons depots in the Bint Jbeil area this week, for example, were carried out within the terms of the ceasefire agreement. The March 4^th airstrike which killed a Hezbollah naval force commander close to the Israeli border was also in keeping with the terms of the ceasefire.
Last week, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun spoke at the Arab Summit in Cairo, where he stressed “resistance through diplomacy,” implicitly committing to keep Lebanon inside the Arab consensus against Israel while not letting foreign actors (Iran) drag Lebanon into war with Israel.
This followed his first foreign visit as President to Saudi Arabia, where he was keen to reorient Lebanese foreign policy in general to Saudi priorities, a stark contrast to its role in recent years as the front line in Iranian and Syrian regional priorities. In a much noted speech in Riyadh, Aoun alluded to the negative influence Iranian dominance has had on the Arab world: “When one occupies Beirut, destroys Damascus, threatens Amman, makes Baghdad suffer or takes Sanaa … it is impossible for anyone to claim that this serves Palestine.” He continued, still without naming Iran, “Lebanon has suffered a lot, but it has learned from its sufferings.”
Yesterday’s meeting was the latest example (the first under President Trump) of US-mediated diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon. In 2022, the US led an effort to delineate the maritime boundaries of each country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) for the purposes of natural gas extraction.

Looking Ahead: Following yesterday’s talks, three working groups will be established for ironing out differences on three principal issues: the border, prisoners, and IDF outposts in Lebanon.

Each group will comprise representatives from Lebanon, Israel, and the US.
- Borders: the UN confirmed in 2000 that Israel had completely withdrawn to the Blue Line. Despite this, there are 13 points along the border where tiny differences exist between Lebanese and Israeli claims. The goal of this working group’s negotiations is to determine an exact and agreed border in order to remove any excuse for future provocations.
- Prisoners: there are a small number of prisoners held by Israel who have Lebanese citizenship. Five of these, including one Hezbollah member, were released yesterday in what Israel termed a “goodwill gesture”.
- Outposts: When withdrawing from Lebanon earlier this year, Israel held on to five outposts in Lebanese territory in order to secure its border and monitor possible violations by Hezbollah. The working group will discuss Israel’s conditions for leaving those outposts, with the goal of reaching an agreement that can facilitate a complete withdrawal.
The trilateral working groups exclude France (although they did attend the Naqoura talks yesterday) and UNIFIL (they did host the meeting) that traditionally held of arbitration role since 2006.
A Lebanon-Israel agreement on outstanding issues of dispute would go much farther than previous ceasefires (1993, 1996, 2006) to securing the border for both sides.
A reorientation of Lebanese foreign policy in the more pragmatic Arab camp rather than the Iranian one would be a coup for US regional diplomacy.

December 12, 2024

Efforts continue to reach a hostage deal

12/12/24

What’s happening: Intensive efforts are currently underway to reach a deal for the release of the hostages.

The latest push is being led by Mossad Director Barnea with Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani. The pair spoke in Doha yesterday, having also met in Vienna two weeks ago, as Qatar resumed its role as a mediator.
In the US, the families of Israeli-American hostage met with Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives. The US official expressed his solidarity and said that the current US administration is committed to releasing the hostages. Johnson acknowledged the urgency to “take the hostages out from Hamas’s tunnels of death as quickly as possible.”
Defence Minister Katz spoke with his US counterpart Austin and said that renewed negotiations can pave the way to release all the hostages who are being held by Hamas, including those with American citizenship.
The IDF announced that over 350 trucks of Humanitarian Aid entered Gaza yesterday. An additional 269 trucks distributed aid with the Strip. The trucks included food, water, medicine, medical equipment, and sheltering equipment.
Last night a terrorist opened fire on a bus just south of Jerusalem. Joshua Aharon Tuvia, a 12-year-old child was murdered, 3 people were wounded, and two other people were lightly hurt.
Following a manhunt in the Bethlehem area, the terrorist surrendered himself to the IDF this morning.
In the south, two drones launched from Yemen were intercepted this morning, including one near Eilat. No injuries or property damage were reported.
Yesterday, two rockets fired from central Gaza were also intercepted.
The IDF announced a targeted strike on Fehmni Salmi, a Nukhba Company Commander, who led the October 7th attack on the IDF ‘Paga’ Outpost near Kibbutz Beeri in southern Israel.
The IDF also struck and eliminated Salah Dahham, the head of Hamas’s Paragliding Unit, in the Jabaliya area. On October 7th, Dahham led Hamas’ aerial infiltration into communities in southern Israel, a key part of Hamas’s opening attack.
Meanwhile Prime Minister Starmer met with the head of UNRWA and pledged an additional $16.5 million.

Context: The resumption of the hostage negotiations after several months is due to several factors. Most significant is the isolation of Hamas and the end of linkage with the war in Lebanon following Israel’s successful end of the campaign against Hezbollah.

The deal currently under discussion is defined as being a “limited deal,” in which over 50’s, women and children and those with medical conditions would be released, leaving the male hostages and soldiers in captivity.
Due to US pressure it is also possible that the dual Israeli- American men will also be included in the first phase.
Efforts are being made to keep the details of the current talks secret and avoid leaks to ensure their success.
The prospect of a limited deal has caused disagreements amongst some hostage families, specifically what it means for the fate of those not included.
Israel is ensuring that both the Biden and Trump teams are involved in the current process.
Similar to the arrangement in Lebanon, one option thought to be being explored is another side deal with the US to ensure Israel maintains freedom of action to respond to Hamas threats.
Otherwise it remains unclear how the sides can bridge the large gap that has persisted through numerous rounds of failed negotiations; Hamas demands an end to the war, while Israel says the war will not end before Hamas no longer rules Gaza.
Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
An Israeli official said that the proposal is not for an end to the war, but an extended ceasefire that will allow the elderly, children, women, ill, and badly wounded hostages to be released. The number of living hostages in these groups is today understood to be fewer than the 33 that was previously discussed in talks over past months.
Asharq Al-Awsat reports that Hamas is contacting other terror groups holding hostages for updates on the number and conditions of living captives. Hamas has told factions including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front, and the Popular Resistance Committees to prepare information such as whether their hostages are alive or dead.

Looking ahead: US National Security Adviser Sullivan is scheduled to arrive in the region today and is expected to visit Israel, Egypt and Qatar.

Despite progress, no imminent breakthrough is expected. However there is hope a deal can be concluded before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th.

December 10, 2024

Progress reported on Gaza hostage deal

10/12/24

What’s happened: Recent reports indicate that conditions may have ripened for a deal to free hostages being held by Hamas, and drafts for such a deal have been exchanged between the sides. Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper reporting that the talks to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip were at an advanced stage thanks to “larger areas of agreement” between the sides.

In a sign of progress, Hamas has reportedly begun to look for living hostages in the Gaza Strip ahead of such an agreement.
Hamas confirmed that its delegation met with Egyptian intelligence chief in Cairo. A report in Qatari newspaper The New Arab stated that Hamas submitted a list of hostages to mediators, with Egyptian intelligence receiving names of hostages with medical conditions and elderly captives, as well as Palestinian prisoners to be freed from Israeli jails.
Hamas also reportedly asked other Palestinian groups, including Islamic Jihad, to compile details on the hostages that they hold. Such ‘files’ were to include both medical conditions and locations.
Prime Minister Netanyahu told hostages’ families that an opportunity was at hand to soon conclude an agreement, adding that he supports a ceasefire that would allow for hostages to be released.
Foreign Minister Saar also struck a cautiously optimistic note about a possible deal. “We aren’t there yet, but I hope we will be,” he said.
The Qatari newspaper report also claimed that four hostages with US citizenship who would not meet the specific humanitarian conditions of the first phase, would be included.
Over the weekend, a sign of life was released of Matan Zangauker, in which he addressed his mother, Einav: “Mum, I watch and hear you a lot. And I understand the activities you do. And I am very happy that you are well. And I hope to see you soon and sit with you at the same table to eat and drink and talk to you.”
In related news, three soldiers were killed and another 12 wounded (three hospitalised in serious condition) in Gaza by an anti-tank missile that was fired at them. The troops were preparing to board an armoured truck that was to transport them out of Gaza when a Hamas squad that was positioned near the fortified outpost fired an anti-tank missile and light weapons.
Four IDF reservists were killed in Lebanon for the first time since the ceasefire went into effect. The troops were searching for Hezbollah arms in the Lebanese village Labouna when an explosion took place in an underground chamber they were searching. A preliminary investigation found that the bomb had been planted by another IDF unit.

Context: Following Israel’s success in disrupting the linkage between the Gazan and Lebanese fronts with Hamas and Hezbollah as well as President-elect Trump’s interventions, Qatari mediators have rejoined efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

The deal currently under discussion is defined as being a “limited deal,” in which elderly, women and children and those with medical conditions would be released, leaving the male hostages in captivity.
The defence establishment believes that the release of videos of Matan Zangauker (whose mother Einav is one of the leaders of the fight to bring the hostages home) as well as of Israeli-American citizen Edan Alexander last week was meant to pressure Israel into making progress towards a larger deal. “The release of the video of Alexander, who has American citizenship, was meant to pressure President-elect Trump. The release of the Zangauker video was based on the understanding that his mother is a central figure among the hostages’ families and could exert heavy pressure on Netanyahu,” said a security official.
Neither Zangauker nor Alexander would ostensibly be part of such a limited deal (although if US citizens were included Alexander might be on the list).
Other Americans among the 100 hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza include Keith Siegel, Sagui Dekel-Chen, Omer Neutra, Itay Chen, Judi Weinstein Haggai and her husband Gadi Haggai, although some are no longer thought to be alive. One British hostage, Emily Damari, remains in captivity.
There remains a level of disagreement amongst some hostage families as to whether a ‘limited’ deal is in Israel’s interest. Zvika Mor the leader of the Tikva Forum, whose son Eitan is being held in Gaza, told Kan Radio that “If we’re only currently talking about the girls and the women and the elderly—and we obviously want them all—we are liable to sentence the young men to who knows how many years, when it’s clear to us that Hamas will want to keep hostages for itself as bargaining chips.”
Many of the finer details are still unclear and some still need to be negotiated, but these appear to be the contours of a new agreement:
- The deal will begin with a temporary ceasefire that will last between 45 and 60 days.
- In that time, there will be a gradual / staged release of living hostages. Earlier deals spoke of the 33 hostages. It is not clear if it will reach that figure.
- In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The ratio still needs to be negotiated.
- One of the most dramatic clauses appears to be the opening of the Rafah crossing (between Egypt and Gaza) that will be placed under the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
- The Qatari newspaper reported that IDF troops will withdraw from the Rafah border crossing and the city centres between the sixth and eighth week of the ceasefire, after which negotiations will be held about a permanent ceasefire and the release of the male and female soldiers who are being held hostage.
- It also includes a substantial increase in the supply of Humanitarian Aid into the Gaza Strip, thought to be up to 350 trucks a day.
The issue of the Israeli military presence in the Gaza Strip remains at the centre of talks between senior Israeli and Egyptian officials. An Egyptian official said that the parties remained at odds about “the day after,” particularly because of the delay – despite Egyptian pressure – in an announcement by PA Chairman Abu Mazen on the establishment of the “social aid committee” that is to administer Gaza.
Hamas has continued to insist that any deal signals the end of the war. Israel is not prepared to give that guarantee. The temporary ceasefire could be temporary solution.
Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
Looking ahead: US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to arrive in Israel later this week to discuss the ceasefire in Lebanon, the dramatic developments in Syria and the negotiations for a hostage deal in the Gaza.

December 5, 2024

Renewed cautious optimism for a hostage deal

05/12/24

What’s happened: More details have emerged of the new Egyptian proposal to reach a deal to release the hostages.

Many of the finer details are still unclear and some still need to be negotiated, but these appear to be the contours of a new agreement:
- The deal will begin with a temporary ceasefire that will last between 45 and 60 days.
- In that time, there will be a gradual / staged release of living hostages. Earlier deals spoke of the 33 hostages. It is not clear if it will reach that figure.
- In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The ratio still needs to be negotiated.
- One of the most dramatic clauses appears to be the opening of the Rafah crossing (between Egypt and Gaza) that will be placed under the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
- It also includes a substantial increase in the supply of Humanitarian Aid into the Gaza Strip, thought to be up to 350 trucks a day.
In light of these developments, Qatar has announced that it is also ready to resume its mediation role.
The announcement came as the Amir of Qatar Tamim Bin in Hamad Al Thani continued his state visit to the UK and met with Prime Minister Starmer. As part of their conversation Starmer “commended Qatar’s leadership in mediation…. Including their role in securing the release of hostages.”
The prime minister added, “we must continue to push for all hostages to be released, including British national Emily Damari.”
In a joint IDF-Shin Bet operation, the body of Itai Svirsky a 38 year old hostage was recovered inside Gaza and has been brought back to Israel.
Also yesterday, the IDF released details of the inquiry into the death of six hostages whose bodies were found in a tunnel in Khan Yunis in August. According to their findings, they were all executed by gunshot in February following an Israeli airstrike in their close vicinity. It is thought their captors were then killed, possibly as a result of toxic fumes from the strike. Prior to the public release, the IDF presented the findings of the inquiry to the families of the six hostages—Alex Dancyg, Yagev Buchshtav, Chaim Peri, Yoram Metzger, Nadav Popplewell and Avraham Munder.
In the US, President-elect Trump announced that he would appoint Adam Boehler as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs.

Context: Despite the cautious optimism, there remains more questions than answers, particularly how to square the circle of fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas.

Hamas has continued to insist that any deal signals the end of the war. Israel is not prepared to give that guarantee. The temporary ceasefire could be temporary solution.
Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
If Israel were to allow the PA control and authority over the Rafah crossing, that would be a significant concession and would mark a dramatic reintegration of the PA into Gaza. The control of crossing has significance regarding sovereignty of the Strip and the large financial implications (denying Hamas crucial future income) and could be a significant feature for post war rehabilitation.
If Prime Minister Netanyahu agrees to this, it will mark a sharp change in policy. It remains unclear how his right wing coalition partners will respond.
Hamas has also long objected to the PA reinserting itself into such an important symbolic and practical role.
There is concern amid the visit of the Qatari leader that they continue to play a duplicitous role having hosted and funded Hamas for many years and have not done enough to exert requisite pressure on Hamas to release the hostages.
Itai Svirsky was kidnapped from Kibbutz Beeri on October 7th. He was there visiting his parents on the Jewish festival of Simchat Torah. Both his parents were killed on the 7th. It is believed Svirsky was taken alive and murdered after about four months in captivity.
The recovery of his body now leaves exactly 100 hostages in Hamas captivity.
Trump’s appointment of Boehler follows his threat that there would be “all hell to pay” if the hostages were not released by the time he enters office.
Boehler served in Trump’s first term and was one of the lead negotiators of the Abraham Accords and the Taliban.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet is due to convene this evening with the meeting expected to be focused on these developments.

The next stage of the feasibility test of this new proposal will be when Israel sends a senior delegation to Cairo to explore these issues in more detail. The delegation is expected to be led by head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar.
In parallel it is expected that Hamas’s negotiating team will retune to Doha to resume the talks.
The optimistic scenario is to have a deal before President-elect Trump enters office on January 20th

November 27, 2024

Ceasefire takes effect in Lebanon

What happened: At 0400 this morning, 27th November, the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect.

Last night Israel’s security cabinet voted in favour of the ceasefire agreement, 10 – 1. Only National Security Minister Ben Gvir voted against.
During the meeting, the Prime Minister’s Office released a pre-recorded speech by the prime minister highlighting the benefits of the agreement saying, “With a full understanding with the United States, we retain full military freedom of action. If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack. If it tries to renew its terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it fires a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in trucks with missiles, we will attack.”
In his speech Netanyahu highlighted three reasons for the ceasefire now:
- “To focus on the Iranian threat.”
- “To give our forces a breather and replenish stocks. And I say it openly, it is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries. These delays will be resolved soon. We will receive supplies of advanced weaponry that will keep our soldiers safe and give us more strike force to complete our mission.”
- “And the third reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas. From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas and that will help us in our sacred mission of releasing our hostages.”
Later in the evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to US President Biden and thanked him for the US involvement in achieving the ceasefire and for the understanding that Israel maintains freedom of action in enforcing it.
In the lead up to the agreement, both sides continued to attack each other yesterday. Sirens were heard all over central and northern Israel.
The last air raid siren warning about incoming rocket fire sounded at 10:30 last night when a number of rockets landed in Kiryat Shmona.
The IDF also continued its offensive strikes on Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon including 20 sites in Beirut. 13 were in the Hezbollah dominated Dahiya neighbourhood. According to the IDF, “Among the targets struck were a Hezbollah aerial defence unit centre, an intelligence centre, command centres, weapons storage facilities, an operations room, an artillery storage facility, and terrorist infrastructure sites.”
“Seven other targets struck were components of Hezbollah’s financial system, including headquarters, storage facilities, and branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association, which are used by Hezbollah to collect and store its terrorist funds.”
According to Lebanese media the Israeli Air Force also targeted the border crossings with Syria. According to one report, all of the border crossings were knocked out of commission by those attacks.
In the first test of the ceasefire, a convoy of eight cars and a motorcycle thought to include around 12 Hezbollah fighters approached IDF troops in a Lebanese village close to the Israeli border. The IDF troops fired warning shots.

For further details of the agreement – read our briefing from Tuesday.

Context: The agreement ends 14 months of attacks that began when Hezbollah started launching rockets, missiles and drones into northern Israel on October 8^th, the day after Hamas’s attack out of Gaza.

Since then, Hezbollah has launched over 14,000 attacks against Israel. Israel’s anti-missile defence systems are thought to have achieved a success rate of interceptions of around 90 per cent.
However on the Israeli side 42 civilians and 67 soldiers were killed. Whilst in Lebanon over 3,500 Lebanese were killed, the vast majority were affiliated to Hezbollah.
Netanyahu also took the opportunity to highlight achievements across other fronts in the war:
- On Iran, “We destroyed major parts of Iran’s air defence system and missile-manufacturing capabilities, and we demolished a significant component of their nuclear programme.”
- “In Gaza, we dismantled the Hamas battalions and killed close to 20,000 terrorists. We killed Sinwar, we killed Deif, we killed senior Hamas officials and we brought 154 hostages back.”
- Relating to the West Bank, “we are taking out terrorists, we are destroying terrorist infrastructure and we are operating in all of the terror strongholds. There is no place out of our reach.”
- “In Yemen, we attacked the Houthis’ port of Hodeida forcibly, which the international coalition had not done.”
- “In Iraq, we successfully thwarted, and are still thwarting, many drone attacks, and we have many challenges ahead.”
- In Syria, we are systematically blocking attempts by Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian army to transfer weapons to Lebanon. Assad must understand that he is playing with fire.”
The agreement between Israel and Lebanon will be accompanied by a US letter of guarantee. The US assurances include:
- Sharing sensitive intelligence regarding violations, including any infiltration by Hezbollah into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).
- A US commitment to cooperate with Israel to deter Iran’s destabilising activities in Lebanon, including preventing the transfer of weapons.
- The US recognises Israel’s right to respond to threats emanating from Lebanese territory in accordance with international law.
- This right expands beyond southern Lebanon. Israel reserves the right to act against the development of threats directed against it, if Lebanon is unable or unwilling to thwart such threats: including the illegal entry of weapons into Lebanon through borders and crossings.
Leader of the Opposition Lapid responding to Netanyahu’s statement, saying, “The biggest disaster in our history occurred on Netanyahu’s watch. No agreement with Hezbollah will erase the irresponsibility; no statement to the media will change history. In the meantime, the communities in the north have been devastated, the lives of the residents have been destroyed, the military has been worn down, while they are advancing draft-dodging legislation.”
There is also considerable anger from the leaders of northern Israeli communities. The Mayor of Metulla David Azulai told Army Radio this morning, “The agreement that our country reached is a disgraceful agreement. They want to annihilate us and that is precisely what is going to happen if they find the right time for them, and what happened in the south on October 7 will happen here in the north on a far more powerful scale.”

Looking ahead: The initial stage of the ceasefire is due to last for the next 60 days. In this period, the IDF will gradually redeploy to the internationally recognised border as UNIFIL and LAF will enter the areas vacated.

Netanyahu has cautioned the leaders of local communities from northern Israel that no one would be returning to their home yet. Israel will wait to see whether the other side will honour the agreement.
With this deal completed the focus will return to Gaza, and efforts to secure the release of the 101 hostages, now held for 418 days.

November 26, 2024

Ceasefire in the north believed imminent

What’s happening: The prospects for a possible ceasefire in Lebanon are gaining momentum.

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is expected to be formally declared today, with PM Netanyahu due to convene the security cabinet this afternoon to discuss and vote on the agreement.
The New York Times reports that Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has said that the Islamic Republic approves the proposal.
The agreement is broadly based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which brought to an end the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and will reportedly include two main components:
- The gradual withdrawal of IDF forces and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces with an international supervisory mechanism – headed by an American general from CENTCOM – to deal with future issues that may arise.
- A side letter from American which guarantees that Israel will retain freedom of action to respond if and when Hezbollah breaches the agreement.
Israeli officials said that no Hezbollah prisoners would be released as part of the deal and that no Israeli assurances would be given to stop assassinations of senior Hezbollah officials in the event the agreement is violated.
Israeli security cabinet ministers have expressed support for ending the war. They believe there is a need to separate between the front in Gaza and that in Lebanon, which they hope will increase international pressure on Hamas that will enable progress towards a deal in the south.
There is concern that the United Nations Security Council could pass an anti-Israel resolution before Trump takes office and Israeli political officials hope that a ceasefire in the north would reduce international pressure on Israel.
Residents and local leaders of Northern Israel are concerned that the emerging arrangement would leave northern Israel communities vulnerable to future attacks. The mayor of Hatzor Haglilit, Michael Kabesa, called the emerging deal a ‘surrender agreement’ adding that it was “a disgrace on an historic scale. This isn’t victory; this forsakes the residents of the Galilee. This is a failure to seize an historic opportunity to change reality for decades into the future. Instead of capitalising on success, as usual, they are braking in the middle. The bill is going to be paid by our children and grandchildren.”
Ben Caspit in Ma’ariv described the deal as the ‘least bad option’ that Israel has to choose from. Caspit argus that strategically the agreement is vital, adding that Israel’s achievements in the war are significant and without an agreement the situation could deteriorate. He also argues that Israel should prioritise focusing on the Iranian threat and the need to return the hostages, rather than continue fighting in Lebanon.
Opposition within the government has been raised by National Security Minister, Ben-Gvir who argues that a cease fire in Lebanon would be a missed opportunity to destroy Hezbollah completely at a time when the organisation is weak.
National Unity party leader Gantz also criticised the proposal and Hezbollah as being “half the job. The idea that we will report to the committee and only then take action is fundamentally flawed, as Hezbollah can burn our intelligence sources and move the means of warfare”
Yesterday, around 40 rockets were launched from Lebanon at Israel. Some were intercepted, while others fell in the Western Galilee. Last night Hezbollah fired around 20 rockets toward Nahariya which left two wounded, including one woman in her 70’s who was seriously injured by shrapnel.
An IDF soldier was seriously wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack on the Mount Hermon area this morning. The IDF also intercepted a drone in the Golan Heights, which was launched toward Israel from Iraq.
Yesterday, the IDF attacked around 25 command centres in Lebanon that are associated with Hezbollah’s Executive Council, the organisation’s highest governing body. The IDF also targeted 20 Hezbollah military headquarters in three waves of focused strikes in the Dahiyeh neighbourhood of Beirut and targeted the capabilities of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is responsible for smuggling weapons to the organisation.

Context: The deal appears leaves Israel with several advantages.

These are as follows:
- It will mark the end of the fighting that has seen Hezbollah’s senior military leadership decimated. In additions, over 3,000 Hezbollah fighters were killed, including dozens of commanders and more were injured.
- The IDF has destroyed the enormous military infrastructure that was built directly across from the border. This also includes Hezbollah’s tunnels network that housed sophisticated weapons and was in place for an invasion of northern Israel.
- Similarly, Israel has dealt with the direct threat of anti- tank guided missiles that were aimed directly at Israeli civilian homes and vehicles.
- The IDF believes it has severely downgraded Hezbollah’s stock of missiles, rockets, drones and their launch capacity.
- The deal will allow the IDF to redeploy and rest some forces, allow reservists to return home.
- It will also allow the military to save munitions and focus on the Iranian threat and Gaza.
- The new deal removes the UN from their oversight role and instead places a US military commander at the head of the monitoring committee.
There are ongoing signs of concern too:
- The agreement leaves Hezbollah with at least some of its capacity in place, including the ability to launch missiles, rockets and drones.
- It provides Hezbollah with an opportunity to rebuild and re-arm.
- Violations, even if the IDF does act, could still lead to the renewal of rocket attacks etc.
Some on the Israeli side had hoped for a buffer zone (similar to the arrangement with Syria after the 1973 Yom Kippur War). That would prevent Lebanese civilians (and presumably Hezbollah) from returning directly to the border and once again look into the northern communities.
To counter the latter point the IDF are expected to redeploy significantly along the border to ensure Israeli civilians have security and the perception of security to allow them to return to their homes.
Israel has reiterated that the deal must guarantee future freedom of action in the case in which weapons are delivered to Hezbollah from Syria; preparations are made to launch a terror attack or fire rockets; and Hezbollah operatives move back to southern Lebanon under the cover of being civilians.
As part of Israel’s coordination with allies, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi visited the UK on Monday and met with his counterparts from the UK and NATO partners. They discussed strengthening the coalition against Iran and the developments in Gaza and Lebanon.

Looking ahead: If the security cabinet approves the agreement, it is expected that Biden and Macron will declare a 60-day ceasefire today, at which point the full details of the agreement will be published.

There is hope that the ceasefire will act as a catalyst to change internal Lebanese politics, including reducing the power of Hezbollah and limiting Iranian influence in the country.
Similarly, it is hoped the deal will renew efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and see the release of hostages.

November 20, 2024

US optimistic for ceasefire in Lebanon

What happened: White House senior advisor Amos Hochstein has met several Lebanese officials to try and advance a ceasefire agreement.

After meeting with Shia Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is considered the interlocutor between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah, Hochstein said he felt there was a “real opportunity to bring this conflict to an end… It is now within our grasp.” He added that he hoped the coming days would yield a “resolute decision.”
Hochstein also met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the Commander of the Lebanese Army Joseph Aoun.
Berri said negotiations were going “good in principle” and that “only a few more technical details remain to be concluded.”
An Israeli official made clear that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
Hezbollah continues to fire missiles and drones towards Israel with sirens sounding in Kiryat Shmona, Manara, and areas in the Western Galilee this morning. An IDF reservist, Omer Moshe Gaeldor (30), was killed and three others were seriously wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack in southern Lebanon.
UNIFIL said peacekeepers and facilities had been targeted in three separate incidents on Tuesday, and that four Ghanaian peacekeepers were wounded when a rocket hit their base in southern Lebanon. UNIFIL mentioned it was fired by ‘non state actors’, while the IDF explicitly named Hezbollah, saying they had fired the rockets from the areas of Maaliyeh and Deir Aames in southern Lebanon.
In response to the attack, Argentina announced it was pulling its troops from a peacekeeping force.
On Monday, the IAF struck and eliminated Hezbollah operative Ali Tawfiq Dweiq, the commander of Hezbollah’s medium-range rocket array. Dweiq commanded the medium-range rocket array since September 2024, and was responsible for the launch of over 300 projectiles toward Israel, including towards Haifa and central Israel.
The IDF has also begun conducting targeted raids against a central Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon. In coordination with the IAF, the troops struck dozens of targets in the stronghold that were used to fire rockets into Israel as well as command centres, weapons storage facilities, and observation posts.
The Wall Street Journal reported that, as the IDF continues to advance in southern Lebanon, it has found large troves of Russian weapons, including some manufactured as recently as 2020. “The [Russian-made] weapons Israel is finding now are newer, more advanced, and present in larger numbers than expected by military analysts,” the report notes.

Context: In parallel to the diplomatic process both Israel and Hezbollah are looking for final military gains ahead of any ceasefire.

Although the Americans are confident that a deal can be concluded, Israel is keen for the US to add more diplomatic pressure on the Lebanese to improve the terms of the deal. With limited diplomatic leverage, Israel is using its military clout to add pressure on Hezbollah to end the fighting.
Part of this pressure includes advances to the ‘second row’ of villages in the south, as well as strikes on Hezbollah assets in Beirut and elsewhere.
Despite the US optimism, several issues remain unresolved:
- The most important issue for Israel is to retain freedom of action to thwart any attempts by Hezbollah to violate the agreement, both in terms of returning fighters in close proximity to the Israeli border and Hezbollah efforts to rearm and rebuild their military capacity. This is likely to come in the form of separate document from the US president offering those guarantees. The Lebanese say that such a letter is unnecessary.
- The extent to which Israel will be able to independently monitor Hezbollah activities through overflights and other technology.
- The augmentation and upgrading of UNIFIL. Israel is keen to see more peacekeepers from European states whilst Lebanon prefers Arab forces.
- Clarification of the division and distinction of roles for both UNIFIL and the LAF operating south of the Litani River.
- The composition of the international monitoring mechanism. Prior to the war, there was a trilateral forum consisting of the IDF, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UNIFIL. The new proposal is for there to be a four way committee. This would be chaired (crucially from Israel’s perspective) by a US official (possibly CENTCOM commander), and also include France, the UN and (an as yet unnamed) Arab country. Israel was keen for the UK and Germany to play a role, but that currently seems less likely.
- Confirmation of the process for when Israel reports a violation and the protocol of the oversight committee encouraging LAF or UNIFIL to deal with the issue before the IDF would respond.
- An agreed-upon mechanism for dealing with other disputes, primarily, the ‘Blue Line’ border markings, on which Israel reached agreement with the UN in 2000, but which Hezbollah do not accept and have used as a pretext for continued hostilities.
- Whether the limits on Hezbollah’s presence can – in some places – extend to areas north of the Litani River in areas where, due to the line of the river (relative to the border), there are areas in the Upper Galilee that could still face direct threats from anti-tank missiles.
As part of the ceasefire, Israel may also be seeking some commitment from Iran to restrain their proxies from attacking Israel from Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Once the principles of a ceasefire are agreed, some of these issues will be resolved during the initial 60 days of the ceasefire, after which the IDF will then redeploy to the Israeli border.

Looking ahead: US envoy Hochstein is expected to remain in Lebanon today and try and resolve some of the outstanding issues.

If there is sufficient progress, Hochstein is then expected to travel to Israel to update the Israeli government on the prospects and timetable for the deal.
Once a ceasefire is agreed,’the repairs and reconstruction of the northern communities can begin – before the eventual return of the residents. This will also allow Lebanese citizens to return home and similarly rebuild.
Israel will then also expedite the building of a new barrier along the border, along with a more substantial redeployment of troops.

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