Initial assessments: Early and conflicting assessments of the damage to Iran’s nuclear sites continued to colour commentary on the outcome of the Twelve Day War. 

• A leaked report from the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) that questioned the extent of damage was seized upon by critics of the war and prominently featured in major media outlets. 
• Yesterday, at the NATO summit in the Hague, President Trump shared a summary assessment from the Israel Atomic Energy Commission stating that the Fordow site, the underground facility hit by American bunker buster bombs, was “inoperable.”
• The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security has published an initial assessment. Based on high-resolution satellite imagery and open-source intelligence. their initial determination is that: “Overall, Israel’s and US attacks have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack. That being said, there are residuals such as stocks of 60 percent, 20 percent, and 3-5 percent enriched uranium and the centrifuges manufactured but not yet installed at Natanz or Fordow. These non-destroyed parts pose a threat as they can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium.”
• The Iranians themselves will be making their own assessments of the damage to their nuclear programme, something they were not able to begin in the immediate aftermath of the US raids because roads leading to the site were reportedly also bombed. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei conceded that “our nuclear installations have been badly damaged,” but did not offer more detail.
• For the time being, the IDF has not released any detailed assessment regarding the current state of Iran’s nuclear programme. Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir did, however, make a public statement last night in which he described the damage to Iran’s nuclear programme as “not a localised blow, but a systemic one.” He added that “the accumulated achievement allows us to determine that the Iranian nuclear program suffered severe, broad, and deep damage and was pushed back by years.”
• Mossad Director David Barnea also released a video statement yesterday hailing the achievements of his agency in the war with Iran. “Israel, thanks to this entire security apparatus, today feels like a different country, a safer country, a braver country that is prepared for the future,” he said in the statement. “Objectives that once seemed imaginary have now been achieved. We will continue to keep a watchful eye on all known Iranian projects — we are intimately familiar with them — and we will be there, just as we have been until now.”

Context: Detailed damage assessments have not been made public, and will take several more weeks to compile. 

• On Israel’s Channel 12 News, Zohar Palti, a former head of the Political-Military Bureau at the Ministry of Defence and previously a senior official in the Mossad, explained that a serious battle damage assessment (BDA) report takes weeks to compile, as it is built on physical and intelligence data that are impossible to attain simply by examining a satellite photo. 
• Inputs will include reports from the crews carrying out the bombing, subsequent flyovers, satellite imagery, human intelligence from sources on the ground, and signal intelligence monitoring enemy assessments and recovery efforts.
• Along with Mossad operative, IDF Chief of Staff revealed on Wednesday that IDF commandos had also been operating on the ground in Iran, without going into more details.
• Along with Israel, US and Iran, it is expected that the UK and France are also likely to make their own assessments on the status of Iran’s nuclear project. 
• Another unanswered question relates to the stockpiles of highly enriched uranium (HEU).
• The fact that the Americans are still making demands after the war regarding HEU in Iran is widely seen as an indication that some HEU remains in Iranian hands. There has been widespread speculation about possible Iranian efforts to remove HEU from bombed sites before they were hit, as well as competing assessments from various experts regarding their ability to convert it into bomb-grade material without the facilities that have been destroyed.
• In parallel, five funerals were held in Israel on Wednesday, and two more will be held today, for the seven IDF soldiers killed yesterday in combat in Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip.
• So far this June, 19 soldiers have been killed in action, making it the deadliest period for Israel this year. 
• At the same time, though 28 civilians were killed by Iranian ballistic missiles, not a single IDF soldier was killed in action in the 12 Day War.     
• In Israeli media, families of fallen soldiers as well as families of hostages still held in Gaza were widely interviewed with many urging the government to leverage the end of the war in Iran to bring about an end to the war in Gaza.
• A political firestorm erupted following the statement of MK Moshe Gafni, a senior figure in one of the ultra-orthodox parties that are part of the governing coalition (and one of the longest serving members of parliament). Gafni questioned the efficacy of continuing the war in Gaza. “I don’t understand, even to this very moment, what we are fighting for there,” he said yesterday in a Knesset committee meeting. “I don’t understand what the need is. What are we going to do there when soldiers are being killed all the time?… We need a Trump to come here and say, ‘We are bringing back the hostages, stopping all these things, and returning to normality.’” Gafni and his party have been threatening in recent weeks to leave the coalition if the Government won’t ensure the passage of a law exempting ultra-orthodox men from the draft.
• The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) reports that it has distributed 44 million meals in the four weeks it has been operating. Rev. Johnnie Moore, the former chair of the GHF, once more called on the UN to work with the Foundation, something the UN and most aid agencies have thus far refused to do. He further condemned the inaccurate reporting of violence at the GHF distribution sites, accusing Hamas of deliberately planting false stories with Al Jazeera that GHF sites were “death traps” in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the only method of aid distribution that Hamas is unable to profit from.

Looking ahead: Within a few weeks an aggregated and consensus view of the battle damage assessment (BDA) could be made public.

• Much  media attention has been focussed on the question of the whereabout of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The New York Times reports that he has not been seen in public at all in more than a week, with speculation rampant about his physical and mental state. Even while the ceasefire was being brokered, the military  commanders and government officials responsible for passing messages to the Qatari mediators were “evasive about whether they [had] met or spoken with Mr. Khamenei.”
• The US is now prepared to renew negotiations over a nuclear deal. Negotiations had been underway for two months before the onset of the war without any real progress. The US administration has reportedly set three conditions for an agreement now: no enrichment on Iranian soil, removal of all highly enriched uranium from Iran, and a cap on ballistic missile production.

Ceasefire: Overnight President Trump declared on social media that a “complete and total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran “has been fully agreed.”

• Trump congratulated “Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will!” 
• According to Trump the ceasefire for Iran came into effect this morning, whilst Israel was given an additional 12 hours to complete its operation.
• The ceasefire has since been confirmed by both Iranian and Israeli governments. 
• As anticipated, just as the ceasefire came into effect Iran fired a final salvo of around 15 missiles. Most were intercepted but one directly struck a seven-story residential building in Beer Sheva, killing four people. 

Strikes in Iran: Over the last 24 hours Israel ramped up the intensity of their bombing campaign.  

• The Israeli Air Force continued to target Iranian military infrastructure and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facilities.
• The targets struck included missile production sites, military command posts and air-defence systems. IAF aircraft fired roughly 200 munitions in five separate waves of air strikes. 
• Israel eliminated another prominent Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohammad Reza Sabar, who had survived a previous attempt on his life. 
• Israel also hit several targets associated with the regime in the heart of Tehran. The attacks targeted bases used by the IRGC and the Basij, as well as the entrance and guard post of Evin Prison, which the regime uses to incarcerate political prisoners and opponents of the regime. 
• Another target was the famous clock in Palestine Square that gave the “countdown” until Israel’s anticipated destruction in 2040.
• The nuclear facility in Fordow was attacked once again yesterday as well. According to reports, the IDF attacked the entrances to the installation, apparently in an effort to prevent the removal of equipment and material.   

Iran targets US base in Qatar: On Monday evening Iran symbolically retaliated against the US with missile launched towards the US base in Qatar.   

• Video footage shows interceptions above Doha in Qatar which is host to the Al-Udeid airbase. 
• Shortly after the attack, the IRGC issued a statement confirming that it had “targeted the Al-Udeid base in Qatar with a devastating and powerful missile attack in Operation Tidings of Victory.” 
• In response, President Trump has branded the Iranian attack as “very weak”, and thanked Iran for “giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.”
• Other sources have confirmed that Iran had deconflicted the attack in advance with Qatar to ensure that the potential for causing casualties was minimised, and that Tehran could be somewhat seen to save face after the US destroyed its nuclear enrichment facility in Fordow.

Context: Ahead of the ceasefire announcement Israeli officials had been suggesting that the operation was almost complete with all the objectives met.

• Whilst Israel mourns the 28 civilians killed, the military operation is considered a stunning success, delivering results beyond the planners’ expectations. 
• Crucially Israel is satisfied. It has removed a double immediate and existential threat, posed by the nuclear and ballistic missiles programme.
• It remains unclear to what extent the nuclear sites have been destroyed and whether the stockpiles of enriched uranium are buried in the rubble or if they were moved to another location.   
• The working assessment is that the installation in Natanz was completely destroyed. Israeli officials are still waiting for confirmation about the status of Fordow and Isfahan. 
• It remains to be seen whether the Iranian nuclear programme was completely obliterated or whether it was merely set back, and by how long. Iran probably still possesses some of the 60 per cent enriched uranium, though not clear how much, but now will face real difficulty enriching it to the level needed for a nuclear bomb. 
• According to assessments, Iran had around 2,500 ballistic missiles at the beginning of the war. Roughly 500 of those missiles were fired at Israel, and another 800 are believed to have been destroyed by Israeli air strikes. The IAF also had success decommissioning over two thirds of their launchers.     
• Over the last day targets included the regime itself and the security organisations responsible for ensuring its survival. The goal was to weaken and destabilise those organisations to enable opponents of the regime within Iran to rebel effectively. The general assessment remains that if an uprising in Iran does occur, it will not be immediate, but can only happen after Israel concludes its military campaign. 

Looking ahead: According to the ceasefire understanding, Israel has a remaining few hours to complete any further attacks. 

• Speaking to the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee yesterday National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said that Israel is “very close to expanding the Abraham Accords. Immediately with the end of the war, a significant diplomatic effort will be made to achieve agreements with Lebanon and Syria. Expedited work is already being done and, if that happens, and there is a good chance that it will happen, this will spell the practical end of the Iranian axis.”
• There is also hope that renewed efforts will now be made to end the fighting in Gaza and secure the release of all the 50 remaining hostages. 

What’s happening: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) have continued their aerial bombing campaign across Iran.

• According to the IDF, they attacked six airfields in western, eastern, and central Iran. The strikes damaged runways, underground bunkers, a refuelling plane, and around 15 aircraft, including fighter jets.
• They also struck missile and drone launch sites in Isfahan, Bushehr, Ahvaz, and for the first time Yazd.
• Yazd in central Iran is around 2,200km from Israel, housed the “Imam Hussein” Strategic Missile Command Centre, where long-range Khorramshahr missiles were stored. Approximately 60 missiles have been launched from there towards Israel.
• IAF Commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, said, “In broad daylight, we surprised the ‘Imam Hussein’ missile headquarters in central Iran, the furthest target we’ve struck to date. We destroyed Khorramshahr missiles before they were launched at Israel and struck tunnels used to store the missiles. We are continuing waves of strikes across Iran, disrupting the enemy’s ability to launch salvos into Israeli territory, degrading their firepower capabilities, and operating decisively to defend the Israeli home front and reduce rocket fire.”
• Following the US strikes, on Sunday morning Iran fired between 20 and 30 ballistic missiles at Israel. 23 people were wounded mostly with light injuries.
• This morning Iran fired a single missile at around 0300 local time, and around 10 missiles again after 1000 am. 
• Earlier over the weekend Israel eliminated two more very high ranking members of the Iranian IRGC. Benham Shariyari, who oversaw Quds Force arms delivery operations, and Saeed Izadi, who served as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ chief liaison with Hamas. Their death are thought to have a major impact disrupting future efforts to arm Iranian proxies.
• Chief of Staff Zamir said that the IDF views Izadi’s elimination as one of the key moments of the current war. 

Operation Midnight Hammer: The American strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites represents a new record level of US – Israeli military coordination. 

• Following the strike, President Trump noted that the United States and Israel “worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.”
• At the request of President Trump, IAF jets preceded the American B-2 bombers and conducted a wave of strikes on Iran’s air defences, clearing a path for the incoming American bombers. The Israeli pre-strikes, on targets provided by the US military, enabled US planes to enter Iranian air space, strike their targets, and exit safely.
• More than 125 US planes participated in the attack, including fighters, bombers, refuelers, electronic warfare and intelligence aircraft. Iran failed to fire a single shot in return. 
• President Trump and the Prime Minister have been in regular and direct contact, speaking before and after the operation.   
• Later Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the Israeli public and thanked President Trump, adding, “In Operation Rising Lion, Israel has done truly amazing things. But in tonight’s action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, America has been truly unsurpassed. It has done what no other country on earth could do. History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons. His leadership today has created a pivot of history that can help lead the Middle East and beyond to a future of prosperity and peace.”
• “President Trump and I often say, ‘Peace through strength.’ First comes strength, then comes peace. And tonight President Trump and the United States acted with a lot of strength.”
• Whilst Trump has claimed “monumental damage” with the three sites “obliterated” Israel experts are independently analysing the damage.        
• According to the preliminary Israeli assessment the strikes “successfully inflicted extensive damage.” 

UK position: The UK has taken a more studied approach, noticeably refraining from praising either Israel or the US in the aftermath of their own strikes while calling for de-escalation and a return to negotiations.

• Prime Minister Starmer spoke with President Trump yesterday, and warned of a “risk of escalation” to the Middle East and beyond the region in the aftermath of the US strikes.
• The British Business Secretary also suggested that the Iranian threat to the UK stood to increase in the aftermath of the strikes.

What happens next: In the short term Israel is expected to keep up its attacks on military targets for the next few days.     

• In parallel Israel is open to “off-ramp” where they end their attacks in lieu of a diplomatic process. 
• On Sunday evening Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Once we achieve the goals, we will not continue beyond what is necessary. But we won’t end it prematurely either. Once the goals are achieved, the operation will be completed and the fighting will stop. We will not be drawn into a war of attrition. But nor will we end this action, this historic operation, before we achieve all its goals.”
• The US has told Iran that their mission is now complete, however if Iran chooses to retaliate, then the US is expected to deliver a harsh response.
• For now, we are waiting for a possible Iranian response. Among their options: They could launch attack on US bases in the region including in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and beyond. They could internationalise the conflict by closing the Strait of Hormuz and encourage the Houthis to close Bab al-Mandab. 
• Following the US strikes Israel’s Home Front Command have reinstated tightened public restrictions across Israel, permitting essential activity only.

Gaza Strip: Also over the weekend Israel retrieved the bodies of three more hostages, Yonatan Samerano, Staff Sgt. Shai Levinson and Ofra Kedar.

• Ofra Keidar was 71 years old, a mother of three from Kibbutz Be’eri. She was married to Shmuel Keidar, both were murdered brutally in their kibbutz. 
• Yonatan Samerano was 21 years old. He was killed at the Nova music festival, when Hamas opened fire on him. He was then dragged into Gaza by Hamas terrorists. According to the IDF, one of the terrorists was an UNRWA worker.
• Staff Sergeant Shay Levinson was nineteen years old. He was a tank commander who bravely fought against terrorists on the morning of October 7th. He fell in battle, defending Israeli communities until his last moments. His body was then taken to Gaza. 
• Fifty hostages still remain in brutal Hamas captivity for 626 days.

Israeli strikes: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) have maintained a relentless campaign prioritising the targeting of nuclear sites, and Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles against Israel.

• On Thursday the IAF bombed Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, although currently inactive was designed to  produce plutonium for nuclear weapons. 
• Israel also conducted a second strike on the Natanz enrichment facility as well as dozens of other military sites.
• 40 fighter jets dropped 100 munitions on dozens of Iranian military facilities in Tehran and other areas of Iran.
• In another assault comprising of approximately 20 fighter jets targeted and destroyed numerous surface-to-surface missile infrastructure sites, as well as trucks carrying the missiles themselves.

Israel’s home front: For the first time in six nights, there were no sirens overnight.  

• The IAF intercepted three drones on Thursday night. Two of them were intercepted within minutes in the Dead Sea area and the third was intercepted in the Haifa area. No one was injured.
• At around 6am local time one missile was fired towards southern Israel. It fell near a residential building in Beer Sheva and five people sustained light injuries.
• On Thursday, Iran fired around 30 ballistic missiles at Israeli cities. One struck the Soroka hospital in Beer Sheva.
• There was significant structural damage, with six people seriously injured. Fortunately, the main building struck had been evacuated one day prior, preventing a devastating mass casualty event.
• Visiting the scene, Prime Minister Netanyahu commented, “We are hitting with precision the targets of the nuclear and missile programmes, and they’re hitting the children’s ward of a hospital. That tells you everything.” 
• Israel’s medical institutions are renowned bastions of coexistence, made up of Jewish and Muslim medical staff and patients. Soroka,  the largest hospital in southern Israel, serves around 1million Israelis in southern Israel including a large Bedouin population.  
• Elsewhere on Thursday a missile exploded in a residential area near a kindergarten in southern Tel Aviv, causing major damage to several apartment buildings and a synagogue. Four people were seriously injured and 16 were wounded in total. Rescue workers removed those trapped under the rubble.
• Another missile struck the city of Ramat Gan, one of Israel’s main financial districts, causing widespread destruction to high-rise buildings, seriously injuring two people, and lightly injuring at least 20 others.

US role:  President Trump is keeping everyone guessing whether the US will join the offensive.   

• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt revealed the President will make a decision, “within the next two weeks.”
• She reaffirmed the president’s position that a deal must include, “no enrichment of uranium and… Iran is absolutely not able to achieve a nuclear weapon. The President has been very clear about that.”
• Yesterday, it was also reported that Special Envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, have spoken by phone multiple times over the last few days with a view towards identifying a diplomatic route to ending the conflict. While Iran is understood to be in a position where it can “show flexibility in the nuclear issue”, this would only be if the US pressured Israel to ceasing its attacks.
• In parallel, several cargo planes carrying armaments and military equipment for the IDF arrived in Israel.
• The replenishment of munitions, particularly for anti-missile defence has been a significant factor in how long Israel will be able to keep up the military campaign, and adequately defend the home front.     
• Since the start of the operation, the US has sent 14 cargo planes with equipment.
• The US is also reported to have redeployed air assets away from the Al-Udeid base in Qatar given fears of retaliatory Iranian strikes, while United and American Airlines have temporarily suspended flights to Doha and Dubai. 
• Iran has threatened military action against US troops if it joins Israel’s military operations with Ayatollah Khamenei warning of “irreparable damage”, and asserted that “the Iranian nation is not one to surrender.”

UK’s diplomatic efforts: Foreign Secretary David Lammy has been busy this week trying to identify a path towards a de-escalation between the sides and avoid the US joining Israeli strikes. 

• Last night, Lammy and Ambassador Lord Mandelson met with the US Secretary of State (and acting National Security Advisor) Marco Rubio and President Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff in the White House. 
• Following the meeting, Lammy wrote on X, “The situation in the Middle East remains perilous. We are determined that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon….we discussed how a deal could avoid a deepening conflict. A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution.”

Context: A week into the offensive Israel is bullish that it has made substantial progress in thwarting the Iranian nuclear and conventional threat, but there remains significant challenges.

• Foremost, the nuclear site in Fordow, housing their most advanced centrifuges buried deep under a mountain. There is ongoing speculation whether Israel has the means to inflict enough damage independently. Israeli officials insist they can, but the job would be substantially quicker and easier if the US were to deploy their heavy bombers.      
• While most of Iran’s nuclear programme has been severely damaged elsewhere, unless Fordow is destroyed it is likely to remain viable and able to enrich uranium at levels designed for military purposes.
• The IDF has also disclosed that while Iran had fired approximately 1000 drones at Israel in the past week, only around 20 per cent reached Israel’s borders of which 95 per cent were successfully intercepted.
• The IDF believes that it has destroyed up to two thirds of Iran’s missile launchers, and these are likely to continue being a priority target.
• In a rare interview on Kan News Prime Minister Netanyahu would not say whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini was a target. He reiterated that regime change lies with the “Iranian people alone,” but added, “We’re also striking government targets, symbols of the regime. You’ve seen it, the broadcast station and others. There’s more to come.”

Looking ahead: Today, Foreign Secretary Lammy will meet with the Iranian Foreign Minister alongside French, German and EU counterparts in Switzerland for talks on how to resolve the crisis. 

• Despite Lammy interpreting Trump’s statement that “a window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution.” Israeli sources have suggested that this decision may actually be as little as 24-48 hours away.

War Update: Earlier this morning, the IAF mounted a large operation involving at least 50 fighter jets attacking 20 targets in Iran. 

• According to the IDF, the principal target in Tehran was a factory producing centrifuges for Iran’s nuclear programme. Other targets included factories for the assembly of surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles.
• Overnight the Iranians sent two barrages of missiles at Israeli cities resulting in some damage but no casualties. Twenty-five missiles and two drones were fired in total, fewer than in any night since the outbreak of hostilities. In five nights of Iranian attacks, 24 Israelis have been killed. 
• The Iranians claimed to have fired a hypersonic missile at Israel last night, but this did not change the result which, from the Iranian perspective, was an increasingly ineffective pattern of attacks.
• Before the missile launches, Iranian state media claimed there would be a “surprise” overnight that “the world will remember for centuries.” It is not clear if this was a reference to later claim of a hypersonic missile. But the Iranian attacks have, over five nights, gradually shrunk in scope as the IAF continues to strike missile launchers and munitions. 
• Writing in Maariv, Ben Caspit notes that, “The Iranians had planned to fire 500 missiles in their first barrage, but only managed to fire off 50. The following day they were down to 20-30 per barrage, and now they’re down to two-to-three. The IAF has forced the Iranian missile launchers to flee from western Iran, which is relatively closer to Israel, to the Isfahan district. Now, the IAF is hunting them down there as well. I find it hard to believe the words that I’m writing. The Iranians are being hunted in their own country. And they’re fleeing.”
• The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. officials believe that Israel’s Arrow interceptor missiles are beginning to run low and that Iran has more missiles than Israel has interceptors. The report also speculated that the number of American THAAD interceptors was also limited and could not sustain a long campaign.

International context: President Trump left the G7 summit in Kananaskis in the Canadian Rockies early yesterday, ostensibly to deal with the situation in Iran. At the summit, leaders of the G7 nations issued a statement calling for a “de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza,” pointedly not calling for a ceasefire in the Iran-Israel war.

• Trump’s social media posts and public statements continued to raise  speculations about possible American involvement in the war in Iran. Yesterday he demanded an “unconditional surrender” from Iran. He also boasted, “We have complete and total control of the skies of Iran,” though there is no evidence that any American forces have been involved in the Israeli offensive in Iran.
• The focus of speculation on American involvement is the Fordow facility, Iran’s most protected uranium enrichment site, located deep inside a mountain about 20 kilometres from the holy city of Qom. Thus far, Israel has not attacked the site. It is widely believed that the only kind of munition that could destroy the facility is the 14-ton GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) which only the US possesses and which it has never agreed to sell to Israel. Moreover, the only plan capable of delivering such a bomb is the American B-2, which Israel does not possess. An American attack on Fordow could damage the facility beyond repair at the risk of an Iranian retaliation against American assets in the region.
• The amount of attention focused on American action at one specific site with one specific weapon is unusual, and possibly distracting. There may very well be other means of decommissioning the facility, and it would be odd for Israel to launch a war that can only be brought to a conclusion by a weapon it does not possess used by a country uncommitted to the war effort.
• Also at Kananaskis, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz gave a long interview to German network  ZDF about the International situation. He referred to the Israeli offensive in Iran as “the dirty work that Israel does for all of us.” He accused the Iranian regime of having brought “death and destruction to the entire world,” and added, “I can only say, I have the utmost respect for the Israeli army, the Israeli government, having the courage to do this.”

Looking Ahead: As speculation mounts of a possible US involvement in the war on Iran, the US shifted assets to the region. At least 30 U.S. military tanker planes, used to refuel fighter and bombers in midair, moved from bases in the U.S. to Europe. According to a report in Reuters, the US also concentrated several F-16, F-22 and F-35 fighter aircraft at bases in the Gulf region.

• Today Israeli airlines will begin repatriation flights to bring home to Israel the tens of thousands of Israelis who were stranded abroad when Israeli airspace abruptly closed to commercial traffic at the beginning of the war.

Latest update: Sirens were triggered three times over night in different areas by limited-scale missile fire. 

• Two barrages consisted of a few missiles each, the third alert was for a single missile filed in the north. No missile strikes or injuries were reported in any of the incidents. 
• This morning during a fourth barrage Iran fired a barrage of 20 missiles on central Israel. Five missiles are thought to have landed in the greater Tel Aviv area. Five people suffered from minor injuries. 
• For the second time in five days, the IDF has eliminated Iran’s Chief of Staff. Ali Shadmani, Iran’s most senior military official and Khamenei’s closest military adviser, was eliminated in an IAF precision strike guided by intelligence in central Tehran.
• The IDF continues their aerial campaign, among the substantial achievements so far:
  • The nuclear sites in Natanz and Isfahan have been degraded.
  • The scope of missile fire on Israel has been reduced, with 120 of the launchers  destroyed representing around a third of Iran’s launchers capacity. 
  • Senior Iranian military leaders have been eliminated, as well as scientists who worked for the Iranian nuclear programme. 
  • The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has secured freedom of action over Iranian airspace. 
• So far Iran has fired around 390 surface-to-surface missiles and hundreds of attack drones. Most barrages have included between 30 and 60 missiles. Between five and ten per cent of the missiles fired in those barrages successfully evaded Israel’s missile defence systems, killing 24 civilians, with additional one woman, in Bat Yam, missing, feared to be dead. 
• Iran still retains capacity to fire more missiles. The IAF are expected to continue to degrade their missile capacity and target the nuclear infrastructure.

Inside Iran: Israel’s air supremacy over the skies of Iran allowed the IDF to continue to target a range of military and nuclear assets across the country. 

• In Tehran, Israel targeted the head of IRGC intelligence Mohammad Kazem and his deputy Hassan Mohaqiq, both were apparently buried under the rubble after their intelligence headquarters was struck. 
• As well as air strikes, there were reports of at least five car bombs detonated on the streets of Tehran, with the understanding that more nuclear scientists were targeted. 
• At least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists have been eliminated since Friday.
• Elsewhere the Israeli Air Force (IAF) continued to strike Iranian surface-to-surface missiles and their launchers as they prepared to fire more missiles at Israeli cities.
• In perhaps one of the IAF’s furthest ever strikes, fighter jets struck Mashad air force bases approximately 2,300km from Israel (close to the Iranian-Turkmenistani border).
• Israel also struck Iran’s fuel reserves, officials explained that they are used by the Iranian regime for military purposes and for attacks against Israel and its civilians.

Inside Israel: For a third consecutive night Israel was under heavy attack. Waves of missiles, sent Israelis across the country into their protective spaces. 

• Overnight, eight people were killed, while 287 were hospitalised with injuries.   

• Four people were killed in Petah Tikva by an Iranian missile early this morning.  Another 38 were taken to hospital, including two in serious condition. 
• In Haifa, three people were pronounced dead after their bodies were recovered from beneath the rubble. Rescue efforts were ongoing  this morning.
• One person was killed in Bnei Brak, just outside Tel Aviv.      
• As of 1015 local time this morning, there have been over 370 ballistic missiles launched, plus hundreds of drones, with 30 impact sites recorded.
• Since Friday, 24 people have died, 10 people are hospitalised in serious condition. 

Context: Three days into Operation Rising Lion, the IDF has struck over 170 individual targets and more than 720 military assets.

• The IDF announced that it “continues to intensify the blow to the Iranian nuclear threat, targeting its heart and depriving it of critical capabilities and components for weapon production.”
• Speaking on Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir said, “The IDF, through the Israeli Air Force, has paved the way to Tehran and is striking the regime’s infrastructure and nuclear programme with precision and scale beyond what the enemy had anticipated.”
• He added, “The offensive operations we are conducting in Iran are reshaping the strategic reality of the State of Israel. We are removing an existential threat and reinforcing our security.”
• The basis of Israel’s successful operation so far has been to establish the air corridor to Iran and air supremacy over Iran. This was achieved as a result of operations over the last year that saw the systematic destruction of Hezbollah’s advanced anti-aircraft batteries and similar capabilities in Syria after the Assad regime fell from power. These systems would have provided the Iranians with early-detection capabilities. 
• This in turn has created a new dynamic whereby the IAF no longer needs to rely on expensive weapons (that they have in smaller quantity) that are fired from a great distance (hundreds of kms). Over the last couple of day pilots are able to attack their targets from much closer, using cheaper more readily available munitions. The IAF has also deployed drones that can search for their targets over Tehran.  
• Although the Trump administration is not formally part of the offensive, their commitment to maintain the supply of munitions is an important factor in the Israeli calculus. 
• The US, through CENTCOM is also playing an important role behind the scenes, supporting Israel defensively, with intelligence gathering and crucially helping to  provide early warning of incoming Iranian launches. 
• As part of the IDF’s efforts to defend the home front they announced this morning that one third of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers have been destroyed.

Looking ahead: Both Israel and Iran are threatening to intensify their attacks.  

• President Trump has committed to continue to support Israel in defending itself, though he has expressed hope that the war would end. Trump said that it was time for a deal but sometimes there was no choice but to fight.
• The US is also increasing diplomatic pressure on Iran by enhancing its military presence in locations from which it could strike Iran. This includes the Diego Garcia base on the Chagos Islands.

What’s happened: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has continued their campaign again Iranian nuclear sites, missile launchers and infrastructure.

• Throughout Friday and Saturday night, Iran launched repeated waves of ballistic missiles towards Israel.       
• Of the over two hundred missiles fired the majority were intercepted, although several landed in residential areas. Eight Israelis were killed overnight Saturday night / Sunday morning bringing the total number of Israeli dead to 11.
• In the northern Arab town of Tamra four women from the Khatib family were killed. The victims are  Manar al-Qasssam Khatib and her two daughters, Hala and Shada, and another relative, Manal Diab Khatib. Fourteen people were wounded, one of whom is in critical condition. 
• In Bat Yam four people were killed by a missile that struck a 14-story building. The victims are an eight-year-old girl, a ten-year-old boy, a 60-year-old woman and an 80-year-old woman.
• Rescue workers are still scouring the destroyed building for victims and survivors. Thirty-five people are still defined as missing. 
• Another missile struck a building in Rehovot. Between Bat Yam and Rehovot a total of 207 people were wounded. Six have been hospitalised in serious condition; the others are listed as being in either moderate or light condition. 
• Impacts were also reported elsewhere with sirens sounding across much of central Israel, Ashdod, and parts of Jerusalem.
• According to an Iranian media outlet, 215 people have been killed so far in Israeli air strikes, and 650 have been wounded. 

Yemen: In support of Iran, on Friday evening, the Houthis fired a single ballistic missile from Yemen which impacted in the West Bank town of Sa’ir, injuring five Palestinians including three children. 

• Hours later, a number of drones were also launched at Israel from Yemen and intercepted in transit.
• Israel is also reported to have launched an airstrike on Yemen targeting Muhammad Al-Ghamari, who is the Houthis’ chief of staff. While it is unclear whether or not the assassination attempt was successful, it is the first time that any state has attempted to kill a senior member of the Houthis’ leadership, with previous operations instead focusing on degrading and destroying their military infrastructure. Israel is yet to formally comment on these reports. 

Context: The preliminary assessments suggest that Israel has made some remarkable achievements so far.

• In the opening strike, the IDF and Mossad inflicted heavy damage, killing an array of senior military commanders and senior nuclear scientists. The strikes caused severe damage to nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan, as well as incapacitating numerous defence systems and ballistic missiles production sites.
• Israel has now established a flight corridor to Iran and air supremacy over western Iran and Tehran. 
• However, Israel has not yet completed its overarching objective, and hasn’t yet destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme and its missile capabilities. 
• The attacks on Israel’s home front reinforce the urgency of Israel’s campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Any of the hundreds of ballistic missiles launched at Israel could have been armed with a nuclear warhead, had Iran been allowed to achieve its goal.
• Although several nuclear sites have already been targeted, the Fordow site hasn’t yet been significantly damaged. The IAF does have some capabilities, but is limited in their ability to penetrate a site built under a mountain. The US are believed to be the only ones with the necessary capabilities, so Israel may well try to persuade the US to strike Fordow. Only a strike deep underground in Fordow will remove the nuclear threat for the foreseeable future.
• Although, so far Israel has acted independently, the assumption is that the US gave tacit consent. Officials in Jerusalem sense that Trump is pleased with the results of the strike on Iran so far, but has not yet decided whether to join. 
• With or without the US, Israel still has a full list of targets for the coming days and the fighting is expected to continue. 
• Prime Ministers Starmer and Netanyahu spoke with each other on Friday afternoon. A Downing Street read out says that “The Prime Minister was clear that Israel has a right to self-defence and set out the UK’s grave concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme. He reiterated the need for de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution, in the interests of stability in the region.”
• Prime Minister Starmer has also deployed additional British forces to the Middle East, including fighter jets while refusing to rule out the prospect of acting in defence of Israel as the UK previously did during Iran’s missile attacks of April and October 2024.
• Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to attack British, American, and French troops stationed in the region if they act to defend Israel.
• The initial successes is a form of a corrective experience, particularly for military intelligence and operations following the resounding failure around October 7. As veteran analyst Nahum Barnea wrote, “That may not be any consolation, but it is compensation.” 
• Even among some of his critics there is recognition that Netanyahu also deserves credit for making such a fateful and decisive decision.   

Looking ahead: Officials estimate that several more days of fighting lie ahead, and the Israeli public must prepare accordingly.

• Israel remains in lockdown, with the airport closed, only essential workplaces will be open today. Schools remain closed, with remote learning in place at least until the end of this week. 
• There is speculation whether Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is a target or not, with a senior defence official cryptically telling the Wall Street Journal that he is “not off limits.”

What’s happening: In the early hours of Friday morning Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting the Iranian nuclear programme and significant military targets.

• The attack began with waves of Israel Air Force (IAF) strikes.
• The first wave targeted Iran’s General Staff and the headquarters of its intelligence service in Tehran. Immediately thereafter, the second wave struck some nuclear installations and missile facilities, including:
  • Nuclear site in Natanz, one of the central sites of the Iranian nuclear programme. 
  • The heavy water reactor in Arak
  • the Parchin military facility 
  • The Khondab nuclear reactor
  • Other targets in Kermanshah, Ilam, Qom, Hamadan, Khorramabad, Piranshahr, Tabriz and Qasr-e Shirin.
• The third aerial group targeted several dozen high-ranking Iranians military and government officials. 
• According to Iranian state TV the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander (IRGC) Hossein Salami was eliminated along with three of the organisation’s senior officers had been eliminated in the preliminary air strike. 
• Other high-ranking Iranians, including Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammed Bagheri, Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani and the head of the country’s air and space force, and nuclear scientists have also been successfully targeted. 
• It is understood that pre-deployed Mossad commando units operating on the ground in Iran were involved in launching precision-guided munitions that targeted Iranian surface-to-air missiles, other air defences, as well as ground-to-ground missiles that would have been used in a retaliatory strike against Israel.

Israel’s Home Front: This morning, the Israel’s home front was on highest state of alert as Iran launched their drone counter attack against Israel. 

• Later in the morning IDF announced that all drones have been intercepted and the immediate danger has passed. 
• According to Home Front Command directives, there will be no school activities and public gathering. The Pride Parade that was scheduled to take place today in Tel Aviv has been cancelled.
• Defence Minister Katz declared a special situation, “In wake of the State of Israel’s pre-emptive attack on Iran, a missile and drone attack against Israel and the civilian population is expected in the immediate timeframe.” 

Context: This operation has been planned for years, as the Iranian nuclear programme was perceived as the greatest existential threat to the State of Israel.

• It is understood the whole of the IAF was participating in the attack.       
• Operation Rising Lion is a reference to the biblical verse, “Behold, a people that rises like a lioness and raises itself like a lion.” Numbers 23:24.
• Israeli officials issued clarifications saying that the operation’s objective was not to topple the Iranian regime, but to remove existential threats to Israel.
• The air strikes began after Israel assessed that the Iranian regime had enriched fissile material for 15 nuclear bombs.
• In the last few months, Israeli intelligence reached an assessment that the Iranian’s were close to the point of nuclear no-return. 
• The IDF understood that for the first time that the Iranians were developing a secret plan to make technological progress on all aspects of developing nuclear weapons. According to the intelligence, this included efforts to manufacture thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium, spread out across the country in underground sites. 
• In addition, real progress was seen in the Iranian effort to manufacture all the parts of a nuclear bomb, included technological and operational components.
• As part of a diversion, Netanyahu announced yesterday that he and his family were going on vacation in northern Israel before the wedding of his son in order to signal to the Iranians that Israel did not intend to launch an attack.
• The elimination of Hossein Salami, along with the commander of Iran’s armed forces, Mohammad Bagheri, is highly significant. Salami was the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He joined the IRGC when the Iran-Iraq War erupted in the early 1980s. In the past he commanded the air force and the navy of the Revolutionary Guard. He was appointed deputy commander of IRGC in 2009, and he was appointed the commander in April 2019. 
• Salami was known for his aggressive, violent and defiant speeches against the US, Israel and the Arab states. He espoused a hardline ideology and promoted the vision of “exporting the Islamic revolution” and expanding Iran’s influence in regional and international theatres. Under his command, they intensified its involvement in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, and stressed the importance of “jihad” against Iran’s enemies. 
• Salami was very close to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and appeared by his side at many events. Together with Khamenei, Salami also led Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.  
• Salami’s elimination is being compared to that of other senior officials, such as Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and top Hamas officials. Salami was one of the more prominent faces of Iran’s terrorist battle against Israel specifically and against the West in general. His elimination is likely to have a major impact on Iran’s security leadership in the immediate term.
• The IRGC, led by Salami, was a prime suspect in the recent attempted terrorist attack against the Israeli Embassy in London.

Looking ahead: Having launched the initial attacks, it is unclear how long the whole operation could take to destroy the entire nuclear programme. 

• Israel is bracing for the Iranian response, it could take a combination of three forms:
  • Ballistic missiles, in which case the Arrow 3 system will be activated. 
  • Another option are cruise missiles, which take two hours to reach Israel, against which Israel can use the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems. 
  • Drones, which take nine hours and against which Israel can use the Patriot and Iron Dome systems.