Iran and their Proxies

Updated June 15, 2026

US-Iran agreement leaves key nuclear questions unresolved

What’s happened: The US and Iran have reached a framework agreement to end the war that began nearly four months ago on February 28. The deal is to be signed this Friday.

The deal was announced by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who had served as a lead mediator between the sides, and was quickly confirmed by Iranian and US officials, including President Trump.
The text of the deal has not yet been made public. However, media reports are in general agreement about several of the key points in the agreement.
It is widely believed that the deal will stipulate a sixty-day period for the United States and Iran to come an agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme. At the beginning of this period, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened to shipping, and the US’s blockade of Iranian ports will also be lifted.
The Pakistani statement on the agreement said that it included a commitment to a full ceasefire in Lebanon too, something which was not confirmed by US officials.
The issues that are addressed upfront in the deal include:
- An Iranian commitment not to develop nuclear weapons and to abide by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
- An immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
- An end to the US blockade of Iranian ports.
- A cessation of armed hostilities for the duration of the negotiation period.
The issues that are to be addressed in the sixty-day negotiation period include:
- Iran’s nuclear facilities.
- Limitations on Iranian enrichment capacities. Earlier US demands were for a 20-year moratorium on all enrichment followed by a permanent cap on enrichment no higher than 3.67 per cent, a level usable for energy but not weapons. In an interview with The New York Times yesterday, Trump hinted he might be willing to accept a 15-year moratorium, but would still insist on the permanent cap.
- The fate of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, including not just the highly enriched uranium currently believed to be buried under the ruins of a nuclear facility bombed by the United States in June 2025.
- Sanctions relief, which the United States has made no provision for in the interim agreement and will only consider as part of the larger comprehensive agreement, if one is reached.
Issues that might overlap or for which there are conflicting reports include:
- Billions of dollars of frozen Iranian assets, which the Iranians claimed may be, at least in part, unfrozen already during the sixty-day ceasefire period. US officials deny this, though they have in the past been keen to separate the issue of frozen assets from sanctions relief, on which they have been decidedly more insistent about not treating until after a full nuclear agreement is in place.
- Tolls on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, about which there are entirely contradictory claims from both Washington and Tehran that are difficult to assess in the absence of any publication of an agreed text.
- Iran’s ballistic missile programme, its support for regional proxies, and its internal repression are not treated in the interim agreement, and it is not clear which if any of these will be included in the negotiations during the sixty days of ceasefire.

Context: The announcement of an agreement came against the backdrop of a very tense day on the Israel-Lebanon front. Hezbollah launched three attack drones on Israeli communities in the north, sending residents into shelters, but ultimately causing no casualties on the Israeli side. Israel responded with a significant air strike in Beirut, eliminating three Hezbollah terrorists, including one wanted by the US for the killing of five Americans.

The air strike was followed by an Iranian threat to launch missiles against Israel in response. Israel’s Home Front Command raised alert levels and cancelled large public gatherings.
Ultimately, no Iranian missiles were launched. Significant US pressure on Iran not to do anything which would unravel the almost completed agreement, coupled with a vocal American condemnation of the Israeli operation in Beirut, brought the escalation to an end.
For the US, it was a significant diplomatic test, as well as a dilemma. For most of the last two months, the US has been insisting that any Israeli response to Hezbollah fire be contained to southern Lebanon, or at the very least, be outside of Beirut. The fact that one of the Hezbollah terrorists targeted yesterday was wanted by the US itself only heightened the dilemma faced by the Trump administration.
For Israel, it was an even more delicate and trying test. Israel does want to appear to ratify the new Iranian “equation” by which any Israeli attack in Lebanon leads to a counterattack on Israeli cities from Iran. In Jerusalem, it was understood that the Hezbollah drone attack was deliberately meant to set a diplomatic trap for Israel. If it failed to respond to the Hezbollah attack out of fear of Iranian retaliation, it was leaving itself open to an unlimited war of attrition on its north which it could not respond to. If it responded, it risked both US condemnation and a renewal of the war with Iran. Ultimately, Israel chose not accept the “equation,” and at the last minute, it was Iran that blinked.

Reactions: Vice President JD Vance, who is expected to sign the agreement this week in Switzerland on behalf of the United States, said that it would “fundamentally transform the Middle East for the next 50 years.”

Prime Minister Starmer welcomed the agreement and offered UK support for mine clearing in the reopened Strait of Hormuz. A statement from Number 10 added that, “We are clear that toll-free freedom of navigation must now be restored in the Strait of Hormuz, to begin easing the severe economic impacts that have been felt for several months – on families here in the UK and around the world.”
Official reactions in Israel have been muted thus far, with government officials stressing Israel’s independent authority to act both in Lebanon and in response to any Iranian attack on Israel.
Opposition politicians condemned Netanyahu for fumbling, in their eyes, Israel’s diplomacy.
Opposition Leader Yair Lapid tweeted that the deal “doesn’t achieve any of Israel’s war goals – the regime survives, the missile program is intact, and Iran can rebuild the nuclear programme,” and added that it was “total failure” by Netanyahu that turns Israel into a “protectorate that receives instructions regarding its national security.”
Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats, described the US-Iran agreement as “made over the heads” of Israel’s leaders. “With one signature, tremendous military achievements achieved with the courage of our pilots and the blood of our fighters were erased, while Netanyahu stood by – weak, sick, isolated and ineffective,” he posted on social media.
Also critical were ministers in the Government associated with the far-right. Finance Minister Smotrich called the agreement “bad for Israel and the entire free world.”
The announcement of the Iran framework agreement coincided with a pompous celebration of Donald Trump’s birthday in the White House Gardens.

Looking ahead: The allowed sixty days for negotiating a comprehensive agreement would take the US past the World Cup and well into the midterm election season, also an election period in Israel. Trump, in multiple interviews over the past two days, has threatened that he would not hesitate to use force again if an agreement is not reached.

Despite this, there is some scepticism about whether the US would really be able to mount a costly military operation at the end of summer as an election campaign is underway. This scepticism will surely weaken the American bargaining position in the talks.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump dropped an interesting hint about how he weighs his potential lever in a situation where talks do break down after sixty days. He claimed that the American naval blockade on Iranian ports had ultimately proved more successful at pushing the Iranians closer to US positions than any kinetic military action. Despite getting less attention than American or Israeli air strikes and the Iranian closure of the Straits of Hormuz, the blockade, according to Trump, was “more powerful than the hits.”
Beyond the concerns that Israeli officials expressed about the nuclear programme or even the ballistic missile programme or Iran’s regional proxies, there is a real apprehension that even a good agreement, accompanied by sanctions relief, could end up extending a financial lifeline to the Islamist regime only months after it appeared on the verge of collapse.
Donald Trump is due to attend the G7 Summit in France, which starts today and runs until Wednesday. This will be the first opportunity for US G7 partners, including the UK, to be briefed on the details of the Iranian deal at the highest level.

June 11, 2026

US and Iran escalate exchange of strikes

What’s happened: The US and Iran engaged in a fresh exchange of missile fire and air strikes yesterday and overnight.

The US launched what CENTCOM characterised as “self-defence strikes” against multiple targets in Iran, including in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas. The term “self-defence strikes” is the preferred term to describe American operations that are intended to be seen as pointed responses and not signal the end of the ceasefire in effect since April 8.
US media reported that this wave of strikes included not just ordnance fired from aircraft but also 49 Tomahawk missiles. Among the targets reportedly hit was a large water facility on the Iranian coast of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians reported that water service in the region was cut off for 20,000 people. The water facility is adjacent to an underground Iranian air force base. Other targets by US forces included IRGC service units, coastal posts, and police command sites.
Iran announced this morning that it had launched 18 attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. This morning’s attacks, unlike yesterday, did not apparently include targets in Jordan.
In the hours since this morning’s Iranian attacks, a US reprisal attack has apparently been underway, with a broader geographical range than the operations on Tuesday or Wednesday. CENTCOM reported targeting Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defence sites across southern Iran. An explosion was reported in Karaj, outside of Tehran, site of a major Iranian base and missile factory. There were conflicting reports of an attack on the South Pars gas facility.

Rhetoric: While previous rounds of mutual limited attacks between the US and Iran since the ceasefire went into effect have been accompanied by statements from both sides that sought to portray the operations as not signalling the imminent end of the ceasefire, today’s exchange of fire was accompanied by more bellicose statements.

The commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, General Majid Mousavi was quoted in Iranian state media as saying, ““You are making the holy Strait of Hormuz unsafe? We will turn the entire region into hell from across Iran. This is the response to America’s aggression in the region.”
President Trump, too, signalled that he is running out of patience with the ceasefire and the negotiations that have not yet led to any agreement, telling US media that if an agreement was not reached soon, he would “bomb the shit out of Iran.”

Context: The possibility that the ceasefire with Iran could unravel has brought about a change in the IDF’s priorities too. The IDF has begun scaling back its operations in Lebanon to free up air forces for a potential renewal of hostilities in Iran.

The IDF also brought home forces that were operating for 30 days in Lebanese territory north of the Litani River.
With the soldiers safely back at base, the IDF shared with media for the first time some of the details of its operations in this sector, including the capture of a massive weapons facility, hastily abandoned by Hezbollah fighters whose units have been collapsing in the face of the Israeli onslaught. At the facility were launchers with missiles ready to be launched at Israel’s northern communities, as well as drones, anti-tank missiles, rifles, and vests, presumably for use in an October 7-style invasion of northern Israel.

Gaza: Talks continue in Egypt to reach an agreement on Hamas disarmament, in line with the comprehensive plan which ended two years of war in Gaza last October. Israel is not a participant in the talks, which are also mediated by Qatar and Turkey, along with Egypt.

According to Arab sources, Hamas has shown some willingness to give up its “heavy weapons,” but not its “light weapons. The former category includes the missiles and rockets it uses to attack Israel. The latter category includes the rifles and other munitions it needs to maintain its domestic control of Gaza.
The Israeli assessment is that Hamas has almost no heavy weapons left anyway, so this is at most a symbolic concession. Though Israel is not a party to the talks, it is unlikely to permit the entry into the Gaza Strip from Egypt of the so-called “technocratic committee” which is supposed to handle governance of Gaza unless there is an agreed disarmament that meets Israel’s minimal conditions.
Without disarmament, the progress of the comprehensive agreement is stalled, and the renewal of combat becomes more likely. This is especially the case as the major international actors involved have been laying the blame for the failure on Hamas and not on Israel, and as Israel will not, in any renewed hostilities, need to avoid operating in the Hamas redoubts of the refugee camps in the centre of the Strip for fear of harming Israeli hostages — because Hamas no longer holds any.

June 10, 2026

US strikes Iran as Israel intensifies operations in Lebanon

What’s happened: A US Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Both crew members were rescued alive by an unmanned sea drone. According to CENTCOM, this is the first such rescue successfully carried out by an autonomous surface vessel.

Official Iranian media claimed that Iranian forces had not engaged in any aerial activities near the Strait, and for hours after the incident it was unclear what exactly had transpired. Then President Trump announced that the helicopter had been shot down by Iranian fire, with US officials confirming that an Iranian one-way Shahed drone had brought the helicopter down.
In response, US forces launched a limited air strike against Iranian air defence, radar, and ground control stations near the Strait of Hormuz. An official CENTCOM statement referred to the US operation as “self-defence strikes,” the preferred term of US officials for operations that are not intended to signal an end to the US-Iran ceasefire in effect since April 8.
The Iranians responded this morning with what they claimed were attacks on 21 US bases in the region. Iran also claimed to have shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over Iranian territory.
US officials denied that Iran had struck 21 or even fired at 21 sites. US and regional officials described successful interceptions of Iranian missiles over Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, where the target appears to have been a large US air base at Al Azraq.
The ceasefire that was effectively imposed by the Trump administration on Iran and Israel after one day of mutual fire on Monday held. The Iranian attempt to leverage missile launches on Israel to bail out its proxy in Lebanon failed to stop Israeli action in Lebanon, however. The IDF this morning announced further evacuation orders in southern Lebanon ahead of anticipated Israeli military strikes. Earlier today, the IDF carried out a large strike against Hezbollah targets in the Lebanese city of Tyre.
The Israeli operations in Lebanon, including fire beyond the Litani River, carry significance on two levels. They constitute offensive action against Hezbollah, which had been attacking northern Israel in the week before, and they demonstrate definitively that the Iranian attempt this week to create a new “equation” by which Iran could fire at Israeli cities if Israel operated in Lebanon, failed to produce the result desired by Tehran.
Also yesterday, an armed man in a military uniform crossed into Israel from Lebanon. When he was discovered by the IDF, he opened fire, but was eliminated by IDF fire.
The UK Government is advancing legislation in Parliament that would designate the IRGC as a “threat to national security,” potentially closing a loophole that made it difficult to apply existing anti-terrorism provisions to a state-run intelligence service, rather than a non-state actor, even one backed a sovereign state, as existing legislation permits. This follows the discovery of at least 20 suspected plots to carry out attacks in the UK, especially against Jewish targets.
This move occurs on the same day that the UK announced a raft of sanctions against six firms it alleges are complicit in enabling settler violence in the West Bank. The six associations are small fundraisers, none of which are known to have assets or activities in the UK. This announcement was accompanied by an announcement of £10 million in aid for the Palestinian Authority, that was, notably, not conditioned on any reform or an end to the Authority’s policy of paying families of convicted terrorists.

Context: The low-scale flare-up between US and Iranian forces in the Gulf, like the one day of fighting between Israel and Iran earlier this week, all occur on the backdrop of a feverish US effort to reach an agreement with Iran on its nuclear programme.

US officials have begun leaking to American media some of the areas of agreement between the two sides in negotiations thus far. These include:
- An Iranian commitment to suspend uranium enrichment for an extended period. The Iranians have apparently offered to suspend enrichment for ten years, while the US has demanded twenty. There was speculation the sides might agree on fifteen, though public pronouncements by President Trump indicate that the US will insist on twenty to reach an agreement.
- Iran will “downblend” all enriched uranium. Earlier the US had insisted that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium be shipped out of the country. This stockpile is estimated at roughly 480 kg and believed to be buried in the ruins of a nuclear site destroyed by US forces in Operation Midnight Hammer last summer. If the leak is true, then none of this stockpile would leave Iran; it would, rather, be diluted (or “downblended”) in Iran with an active US role. Moreover, the agreed downblending would apply not just to the 480kg of highly enriched uranium, but to all the estimated 11 tons of uranium that has been enriched, even to much lower levels.
- Iran would dismantle all three of its major nuclear sites in Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan. It is unclear if Iran has actually agreed to this or whether it is still insisting on shutting down only two out of three.
- A strict international inspections regime. Iran would have to agree to so-called “snap” inspections, which are unannounced ahead of time, by international inspectors, including at IRGC sites, where Iran had previously blocked inspectors’ access.
It is not known what the sides may or not have agreed to as far as the two parallel blockades imposed by the US and Iran, though it is widely believed both would be lifted quickly. It is much less likely, however, that any unfreezing of Iranian assets would happen as quickly, at least according to US sources.
Notably, none of the leaks about negotiations mention issues that were key points of contention in the lead-up to the war which began on February 28, including Iran’s support of regional proxy armies, its ballistic missile programme, or its violent suppression of protests in January of this year.
Global energy markets continue to adjust for Iran’s blockade, now more than 100 days old, on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While the process is hardly painless and affects major US allies differently — Saudi Arabia and the UAE have alternative to the Strait while Qatar does not — the impact of the Iranian blockade has so far been much less catastrophic than initially feared. On the other hand, the US blockade or Iranian ports continues to grind down the Iranian economy with Israeli officials believing a breaking point there may be only weeks away.

Looking ahead: In Cairo, talks are underway between Palestinian factions under an Egyptian-led effort to reach an agreement on implementing the Gaza ceasefire and finding a workable formulation for Hamas disarmament, a key provision of the ceasefire. A successful agreement could pave the way for the “technocratic” committee to enter Gaza and bring the comprehensive agreement, which ended the war in October 2025, to the next stage.

Israeli officials are markedly pessimistic about any real mechanism for Hamas disarmament. According to Israeli analysts, Hamas has managed to retrench and rebuild its military and governing capacities in the roughly 40% of the Gaza Strip which it still controls.
Failure to implement the disarmament clause of the comprehensive agreement increases the likelihood that at some point the IDF will enter the rest of Gaza and forcibly disarm Hamas itself. In the war which began on October 7, 2023 and ended two years later with the comprehensive agreement, Israeli forces refrained from entering Hamas redoubts in central Gaza’s refugee camps for fear of harming Israeli hostages who were largely held in, and under, those densely populated areas. These hostages are all now home.

June 9, 2026

Schools in Israel reopen

What’s happened: Home Front Command restrictions have been lifted nationwide, including schools that have reopened this morning.

The only exception is in communities along the Lebanese border where a “partial activity tier” was declared in towns on and near the confrontation line. People in these areas can work and hold classes only in structures or places from which they can access suitable protected areas.
Confrontation Line Communities Forum Chairman Moshe Davidovich shared the frustration felt by the area’s residents following the policy update. Davidovich told Kan News, “Again, we’re back to colours: Red, orange, green. Our children aren’t traffic lights. While the whole country gets back to normal, ostensibly green, we’re going back to the ongoing nightmare of war in the confrontation line communities, and we’re alone. We’re in dark conditions, darker than dark.”*
He was referring to the new features on the Home Front Command alert app which has new colours and sounds to distinguish warning stages: yellow for preparedness, red for entering protected spaces and green for the all-clear. The Home Front Command used the ceasefire period to introduce changes to its mobile app, making it easier to distinguish between different types of alerts.
Overnight two drones infiltrated into Israeli territory, one from the north and one from the south. A drone that was fired from Yemen was intercepted near Eilat after midnight. At the same time, sirens were sounded twice in towns in the western Galilee, where a drone was also intercepted.
At the conclusion of yesterday’s security cabinet meeting, it was decided to keep striking the Dahiya Quarter in Beirut in retaliation for every projectile launched at Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Iran against renewing its attacks on Israel. Netanyahu said: “Currently, they’re holding their fire on this front because after we hit the terrorist regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. If the terrorist regime makes the mistake of attacking us again, we will retaliate forcefully because Israel has the absolute right to self-defence, which we exercise as necessary.”

Context: It appears the fighting between Israel and Iran is over for now. The Iranian missile attacks and subsequent Israel response were the first direct hostilities between the two countries since April’s shaky ceasefire took effect.

This most recent escalation began on Sunday evening when Iran fired salvoes of missiles at northern Israel, ostensibly in response to Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut. Israel retaliated with its own air strikes on aerial defence systems as well as a petrochemical facility in southwest Iran which it said was being used to manufacture raw materials used for ballistic missiles.
In total, Iran is estimated to have fired approximately 21 projectiles at Israel, all of which were successfully intercepted without causing any damage.
The Houthis in Yemen also attempted to launch two projectiles, one of which dropped short of Israel while the other was successfully intercepted. The Houthis have also renewed their threat to prevent Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea.
Responding to the escalation, President Trump stated on the Truth social media site that “Israel and Iran must stop shooting”, and is reported to have threatened that Israel may find itself alone and unsupported in the event that it further escalated conflict with Iran.
According to reports Trump also told Netanyahu that he would have to “use sense”, but that he was also “very close to signing a very powerful deal” details of which remain unspecified.
Both Israel and Iran have indicated a willingness to resume hostilities, but their shared short-term intent is for the ceasefire to hold.

Looking ahead: The IDF is still manoeuvring in southern Lebanon and expected to continue to target Hezbollah fighters and military infrastructure.

In parallel, talks in Washington between the Israeli and Lebanese government representatives are also expected to continue.
In an interview with CNN, Lebanon’s President Aoun went as far as to accuse Iran of using his country as a “bargaining chip” in negotiations with the US, making further comments that were highly critical of Hezbollah and the IRGC.
President Aoun asserted that Israel should withdraw its troops from Lebanon, and that only then could Hezbollah be “dealt with” by Beirut. He also appealed for Israel to engage in peace talks, and confirmed that the current round of US-brokered negotiations were intended to reach a non-aggression pact rather than full peace deal.

June 8, 2026

Israel responds to Iranian escalation

What’s happened: Iran fired ten missiles at northern Israel yesterday evening, acting on its threat to retaliate for an Israeli strike on Beirut.

Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force struck military and infrastructure targets across western and central Iran, including radars and anti-aircraft batteries, which will help facilitate operational freedom moving forward.
A single ballistic missile was fired by the Houthis in Yemen at central Israel at around 6:00 local time this morning. Iran then fired a number of missiles at central Israel roughly an hour later. All of the incoming projectiles were intercepted by IDF air-defence systems.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump spoke yesterday in the aftermath of Iran’s first missile barrage on northern Israel. According to Israeli media reports Trump said that he believes that Israel had “retaliated enough and should not retaliate further.”
Earlier Trump said in an interview to the Financial Times that Netanyahu would have no choice but to accept a deal with Iran. He stressed that he is the one who makes the decisions, not Netanyahu.
IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Defrin said, “The regime is trying to create a new equation, when it directly fires at our territory in response to IDF attacks on the Dahiya Quarter. We will not allow this. We attacked the Dahiya Quarter following Hezbollah’s endless fire on communities in northern Israel. The IDF will continue to operate throughout Lebanon and will intensify its strikes on the Hezbollah terrorist organisation. We will not allow fire to continue at the citizens of the State of Israel.”
Earlier on Sunday morning, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israeli communities for the first time in four days. Two rockets that were fired at Ramot Naftali and Yiftah were intercepted.

Reactions: Domestically the Israeli government faced more criticism.

Leader of the Together Party Bennett said, “This is a test moment: is Israel a sovereign country that is capable of defending itself? Countenancing or a token response will signal to the enemy that our citizens’ blood has been made forfeit. That is why Israel must act powerfully and effectively. On this issue, all of us, all citizens of Israel, stand together.”
Yisrael Beiteinu leader Liberman also called for powerful Israeli retaliation: “Enough with the containment. We have to respond immediately and to strike Iran’s strategic infrastructure.”
The Democrats leader Golan said, “Our enemies see what everyone sees: Netanyahu is weak. Despite the military achievements, our enemies see that Netanyahu is a weak and failed leader. They see the string of failures, the political indecision and the personal politics that have been running the war—and they have concluded that Netanyahu is weak and that we can be attacked.”
Blue and White leader Gantz said, “The fighting in Lebanon should never have been stopped as part of the ceasefire with Iran. That strategic mistake needs to be corrected with powerful retaliation in Iran, but equally important, with ongoing attacks on the Dahiya.”

Context: There is a consensus in Israel that Iran cannot be allowed to create a new equation that Israeli action in Lebanon elicits an attack from Iran.

This explicit linkage did not exist before the war that began three months ago, and despite forty days of bombardment, Israel is concerned that at the current juncture Iran appears to be emboldened. This is partly explained by Trump’s apparent eagerness to do a deal that has allowed Iran to exert further demands.
Israel is well disposed to reach a ceasefire with Lebanon and even an eventual peace agreement, but the stranglehold that Iran maintains through Hezbollah has to be broken first. At the end of last week the US government announced an agreed ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese government however shortly afterwards Hezbollah rejected the agreement.
For weeks Israel had restrained itself from striking Hezbollah assets in Beirut – at Trump’s request. However after the latest barrage of rockets and drones on northern Israel over the weekend and two more IDF fatalities in southern Lebanon, Israel did respond by targeting a Hezbollah command centre in Beirut.
In the Israeli assessment there remain over 2,000 Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon. Until they are removed Israel will feel compelled to continue its operations in the area.
Israeli attention also remains focused on the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, despite not being part of the process. While Israel will be sensitive to US demands, it is perturbed by the non-responses from Gulf states have had to absorb ongoing strikes from Iran. That is an unacceptable situation from Israel’s perspective.
Iran was possibly working on the assumption that as Trump wants a deal, he will therefore restrain Israel from resuming attacks. Israel for its part needs to mark out space from the US position, as it has a duty to defend its citizens from attack.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet will meet shortly and discuss the next operational steps.

The IDF remains on high alert and preparing for several days of clashes. As part of the preparation it is planning to mobilise a large number of reservists and to deploy reinforcements along all the borders.
A Houthi spokesperson has threatened to stop Israeli maritime traffic in the Red Sea.

June 3, 2026

US-Iran exchange fire as tense Lebanon ceasefire holds

What’s happened: On a backdrop of negotiations for a comprehensive US-Iran agreement, low intensity exchanges of fire continued in the last day.

US forces fired at a Botswana-flagged tanker that was heading toward Kharg Island in violation of the US-imposed blockade of Iranian ports. The tanker’s engine was disabled in the attack.
Following that incident, Iran launched several drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. According to American sources, the drones fired at Kuwait “fell short or broke apart” and the ones fired at Bahrain were successfully intercepted.
The US subsequently responded by striking an Iranian military facility on Qeshm Island.
There were no rocket attacks on Israel’s north overnight, as a tense ceasefire held.
Over recent days, Hezbollah had expanded the range of its attacks on Israel as well as keeping up a steady stream of drone attacks on IDF positions in southern Lebanon.
An imminent attack on a Hezbollah stronghold was reportedly called off at the last minute at the insistence of the Trump administration which pressured both sides to cease fire in the last 24 hours so as not to threaten the ongoing US-Iran talks.
The Israeli Government yesterday approved a plan for a massive investment in Israel’s battered northern communities. The plan would allocate 13 billion shekels (about £3.4 billion) in addition to the already approved 7 billion shekels from earlier decisions (about £1.8). The money will go to reconstruction, grants to small business owners, wage subsidies for hi-tech firms based in the north, and several headline projects in the Kiryat Shmona, including establishing an emergency medical facility there and a partial relocation of the nearby Tel Hai Academic College into the city itself.
Seated next to Kiryat Shemona’s mayor, Prime Minister Netanyahu spelled out the goals of the new investment plan, and said that his Government “is committed not only to the development of the North, but also to ensuring the security of the residents. There is no containment or leniency; we are acting against every threat in real-time.”
The new chief of Israel’s Mossad officially entered office yesterday. Roman Gofman, a major General in reserves who previously served as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s military secretary assumed his new position after the Supreme Court rejected petitions against his appointment.
At the ceremony yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu noted the Mossad’s central role in Israel’s longstanding conflict with Iran, saying that it “will continue to stand at the forefront of our struggle against Iran’s aggression. In continuation of the consistent policy we have been leading for years – we will not allow the Iranian regime to turn back the clock. We will not allow it to acquire nuclear weapons; we will not allow it to threaten our existence. This terrorist regime, which is destined to vanish from the world, and we will help it reach this goal, this regime will no longer threaten us with nuclear bombs and thousands of lethal ballistic missiles.”

Context: Though the US and Iran have not yet concluded an agreement that would definitively end the war which began on February 28 this year, both sides appear to believe an agreement is in reach. This was the main reason why an Iranian threat to quit the talks unless the US could force Israel to scale back its attacks was taken so seriously by the Trump administration.

The administration not only pressured Israel to back down from a planned strike agains Hezbollah targets in Beirut, it also leaked the contents of several tense phone calls between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
There were conflicting reports about what the planned strike was supposed to look like and what Trump and Netanyahu had agreed to beforehand. According to one report in Israeli media, the evacuation order for the Dahiya district in Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, was issued in line with an agreement between the two leaders that Israel would threaten to attack the Dahiya but not actually carry out the threat, the idea being that an imminent strike would pressure Hezbollah to agree to cease its attacks.
At some point after the evacuation began, the Trump administration came under the impression that Israel was planning on going through with the strike and not just bluffing as had been agreed upon, and this is what led to the tense phone call between the President and the Prime Minister.
Israeli decision-makers are concerned that the emerging deal looks similar to the understandings that held during the 1990s, under which Israel was only allowed to respond with significant military strikes if its cities in the north were attacked, while its options for military action in response to attacks on its soldiers in southern Lebanon were extremely limited.
In the last seven years of the Security Zone (1993-2000), this understanding of the “rules of the game” led to many IDF casualties without the IDF having any real leverage over the Lebanese state or Hezbollah itself to stop them. It is particularly concerning now as Hezbollah has been able to use FPV drones to sustain a level of casualties on the Israeli side that is actually considerably higher than anything it did in the days of the unlamented Security Zone (1985-2000).
The leaked content of tense phone calls between Trump and Netanyahu reverberated in Israeli domestic politics too. Israeli politicians and media figures, not all associated with the right, criticised the Prime Minister for capitulating to the President’s demands and not following through on his threat to attack the Dahiya. Others noted that Israel has so tightly bound itself to Trump that it has lost any freedom of action.
It was not lost on domestic commentators that Trump explicitly invoked Netanyahu’s legal troubles as a lever of pressure on him. That he was willing to raise the topic and take credit for keeping Netanyahu out of jail (“You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass,” Trump was reported as having said to the Prime Minster) is one thing. That someone at the White House choose to include those quotes in leaks about the phone call is even graver, both from the perspective of the Prime Minister himself and the entire political system, already wound up for an upcoming election where the question of the Prime Minister’s capacity to manage Israel’s multi-front wars while on trial for corruption is a major issue.

Looking ahead: The fourth round of talks between representatives of Israel and Lebanon are due to continue today in Washington. The US will reportedly propose a plan where the US will directly train Lebanese Armed Forces to deal with Hezbollah and carry out any disarmament agreed to in the talks.

Another idea to be raised in the talks is the creation of “pilot zones,” which would be designated blocks of territory where Israeli troops would withdraw and hand over the territory directly to the LAF. Assuming Hezbollah is prevented from reestablishing its presence in the pilot zones, these could be multiplied and expanded.

June 2, 2026

Trump declares Lebanon ceasefire, but fighting continues

What’s happened: President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on Monday night, in what Trump described as a “very productive call” to discuss the latest developments in Lebanon and the region.

Trump continued on his Truth Social post, “there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop – That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel.”
Following the call Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “I spoke this evening with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not stop firing at our cities and citizens – Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut. This position of ours remain unchanged. Concurrently, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon.”
However it appears that Israel cancelled the strikes on Beirut, hours after Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz announced that they instructed the IDF to strike Hezbollah targets in Dahiya in southern Beirut.
US media described their conversation as “fraught.” According to Axios, “Trump’s anger appeared to be driven by the fact that Netanyahu’s decision to escalate in Lebanon was threatening to implode his negotiations with Iran.” Trump reportedly said to Netanyahu, “You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.”
In domestic Israeli politics the bill to dissolve the Knesset was carried in its first reading last night by a majority vote of 106 MKs. No one voted against.

Context: Despite a declared ceasefire the fighting has continued. Last night around 20 rockets were fired last out of Lebanon into northern Israel.

A drone that infiltrated the western Galilee exploded in a military area. No one was injured.However, once more an explosive drone targeted and killed an IDF officer inside southern Lebanon. Cpt. Dr. Ori Yosef Silvester a thirty year old doctor of the Givati Brigade. Seven IDF soldiers were wounded in the attack, which was carried out by multiple drones not far from the Beaufort Castle. Three were hospitalised in serious condition.
This morning the Israeli Air Force struck various Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
Earlier on Monday, Netanyahu had declared, “There will not be a situation in which Hezbollah attacks our cities and our citizens, and its terrorist headquarters in Beirut, in Dahiya, remains out of bounds. We are continuing to deepen our operational activity on the ground in southern Lebanon and are eliminating Hezbollah strongholds. Hezbollah is on the run. We are determined to restore security to the residents of the north, just as we did for the residents of the south.”
These comments elicited criticism from within the security establishment that felt the premature pronouncement served as an early warning to senior Hezbollah figures, allowing them to hide or disperse.
Trump’s intervention was also the second time that the IDF turned planes around on his instruction while they were en-route to a strategic strike. Last time it was Tehran (in June 2025), this time it was Beirut.
Prior to the Trump – Netanyahu call, Iran threatened to attack Israel and “advised” residents of northern Israel to leave the area should Beirut be attacked.
The public announcements on both sides appear to play into Iran’s hands as they successfully maintain the linkage between fighting in Lebanon and their negotiations with the US.
Israel apparent u-turn led to criticism across the board, with politicians posting on social media:
- Minister Ben Gvir wrote, “Mr. Prime Minister, you said that a strong prime minister says ‘yes’ to the president of the United States when possible and ‘no’ when necessary. Now is the time to tell our friend, President Trump, ‘no.’ Now is the time to do what needs and must be done to strike at Hezbollah, to unfetter our troops and to restore security to the north.”
- Leader of the Opposition Lapid wrote, “A client state in full.”
- Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Liberman wrote, “This isn’t a prime minister—this is a puppet!”
- Yashar Chairman Eisenkot, “Never has there been an Israeli prime minister who has submissively accepted a demand like this, which is patently unreasonable! Hezbollah is an enemy in Beirut’s Dahiya and in Baalbek, we need to strike Hezbollah in every place where it is deployed, and not to tie the IDF’s hands.” Adding, “What Netanyahu, the cabinet and the security cabinet are doing today is damaging to the State of Israel’s national interests out of weakness. And don’t let them tell you stories about the connection to the United States’ negotiations with Iran. Lebanon is here, Metula is taking fire, Israeli communities are empty and that is unconscionable. And the person who is doing that is the man who preached morality to everyone about the fundamental need as prime minister to say ‘no’ to the president of the United States when the State of Israel’s interests are being damaged.”
Due to the Trump – Netanyahu call the ceremony for new head of Mossad was postponed to today. Earlier in the day the High Court of Justice rejected petitions calling for the cancelling of Roman Gofman’s appointment. The court determined two-to-one that although there were failures with how Gofman handled a controversial incident from 2022, he did not deliberately mislead an investigation into the affair or abandon Ori Elmakayes, the individual at the centre of the allegations against Gofman.

Looking ahead: Gofman is set to replace outgoing Mossad chief Barnea in a ceremony later today.

The bill to disperse the Knesset now returns to the Knesset House Committee for further preparation ahead of its second and third readings. The coalition parties have agreed that the general election would be held at some point between September 8 and October 20, though no final date has been set yet. In practical terms, only the option of holding the election on September 1 was removed from the agenda.

May 28, 2026

US circulates ceasefire draft

What’s happened: The US has reportedly circulated amongst its allies a draft of a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) with the main points of the possible ceasefire with Iran.

Iran yesterday launched four one-way attack drones at commercial vessels as well as at US Navy ships. US fighter jets shot down all four drones and hit a fifth as it was being launched. Subsequently, the US also hit the drone control station in Bandar Abbas, the Iranian port on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran hit back with a drone attack on a US base in Kuwait.
As with the air strike conducted earlier this week, US officials were keen to characterise this attack as both limited and defensive and not something which signals an end to the ceasefire that has been in effect since April 8.
All this occurs on the backdrop of negotiations for a more comprehensive ceasefire which would see the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic and set a framework for Iran and the US to reach a detailed agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme. The ceasefire would last for sixty days, with a possibility of renewal if an agreement isn’t reached in time but the sides believe one is possible.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to launch deadly drone attack. The latest casualty was a 20 year old female solider Sgt. Rotem Yanai. Her death brings to 24 the number of Israeli soldiers killed in the war with Hezbollah, which began on March 2 this year. Four Israeli civilians have also been killed.
Israel launched a wave of air strikes against Hezbollah targets in the Lebanese city of Tyre following the attack in northern Israel yesterday. The air strikes began two hours after the IDF issued evacuation orders for Tyre.

Context: The text of the MOU has not been reported publicly in full, and it was not entirely clear if the version that was circulated was already agreed to by both sides or just a US position paper on a likely agreement.

Iranian state media also reported a draft of a 14-point MOU, though it was likewise unclear whether this was a version that had already been agreed to or an Iranian paper of what is assessed to be a likely point of agreement.
It was widely understood in all versions that the agreement would call for an immediate opening of the Strait to maritime traffic, with an Iranian commitment to ensure a full restoration of commercial, but not military, traffic to prewar levels within one month of the agreement going into effect. The Iranian version also explicitly referenced US commitments for a limited withdrawal of US forces from the area also in the early stages of the ceasefire.
The Iranians have also raised the issue of a joint venture with Oman to manage traffic across the Strait of Hormuz, and presumably to divide tolls levied on what has until now been an international waterway between the two countries.
President Trump reacted angrily to the proposal to establish a mechanism of any kind for charging tolls, saying, “The strait is going to be open to everybody,” Trump declared on Tuesday. “Nobody’s going to control it. We’re going to watch over it. We’ll watch over it. But nobody’s going to control it.” When asked specifically about the possibility of Oman collaborating with Iran on the matter, he was even blunter, saying, “Oman will behave just like everybody else. Or else we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that. They’ll be fine.”
Pakistan was the lead mediator for talks on the military issues and the blockade. The Iranian attempt to bring Oman onboard for its envisioned toll mechanism was conducted directly in talks in Muscat, Oman. But it is Doha, where talks are underway for a less noticed issue that appears to be the last major point of disagreement between the two sides.
The Iranians are demanding at least a partial release of billions of dollars of frozen assets. The US has long had the position that this could only be discussed as part of a comprehensive diplomatic agreement that would end Iran’s nuclear programme, as well as hopefully also impose limitations on its ballistic missile programme and its support for regional proxies.
The Iranians would like to see about $24 billion in frozen bank assets, roughly one fifth of the estimated total of frozen assets, unfrozen in the pending ceasefire deal. The US has consistently refused to consider this as part of an early phase of any ceasefire, for fear of granting the Islamist regime a lifeline that it could use to its own benefit should the ceasefire fall apart or no later agreement be reached.
In Doha, the Iranians are demanding $12 billion to be unfrozen upfront, including $6 billion held in Qatar, right at the beginning of the ceasefire — in other words, the Iranians would get the money just for opening the Strait which was open before the war, without even yet agreeing to limitations on their nuclear programme, which, if agreed, would only come sixty days later.

Looking ahead: The Knesset is due to vote on Monday on a bill to dissolve parliament and set early elections. Elections are currently scheduled for October 27, and, since there is a minimum 90-day period between dissolution and general elections, the only possible dates for an early election would not be all that early — sometime in September or October of this year.

The issue that led to the current coalition’s fracture was the attempt to enshrine into law the ongoing exemption from conscription enjoyed by Haredi men that has been ruled illegal by the Supreme Court under current law.
Though it is now clear that no such legislation will pass in the current parliament, the issue still causes ruptures on the legislation that the coalition remains committed to passing before dissolution.
Yesterday, a controversial bill to undo the cancelling of daycare subsidies for children of fathers who did not serve in the military passed after an unusual threat by ultra-Orthodox lawmakers against Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Likud party he leads. The bill was not initially supported by the Likud, whose voter base strongly opposes the measure. The ultra-Orthodox UTJ party threatened that if the Likud did not vote for the bill, they would support the establishment of a State Commission of Inquiry into the security failures leading to October 7, something all the opposition parties (and huge majorities of the Israeli public) support.
The current Government opposes such a Commission as it argues that the appointment mechanism, which relies on Supreme Court judges, would bias any Commission it forms against it. At the last minute, Likud lawmakers, with one exception, supported the bill, and it passed.

May 27, 2026

Trump pushes for Abraham Accords expansion as part of Iran deal

What’s happened: The US launched a limited air strike against Iranian targets around Bandar Abbas on the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz.

US officials characterised the strike as “self-defence,” hinting that it was in responding to an imminent threat. The strike occurred on a backdrop of feverish diplomacy to reach an extended ceasefire that would see the parallel blockades of the Strait, by Iran and the US, lifted while a longer-term agreement is hashed out.
Public statements from all major actors indicated that an agreement for a sixty-day ceasefire, more comprehensive than the one that ended the fighting in April but still far short of an agreement on outstanding issues, was within reach. This was a dramatic shift in tone from the weekend, when renewed hostilities seemed imminent.
The change of tone began with President Trump himself, who posted on social media that “negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all—Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before—And nobody wants that!”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters in New Delhi regarding talks underway in Qatar emphasised the importance of reopening the Strait in the proposed deal, a further indication that the staged process would first end the blockade and then lead to negotiations over the nuclear programme and sanctions relief. Rubio alluded to a “pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait [and] enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter.”
Iranian officials, for their part, also claimed that an agreement was close. A Foreign Ministry spokesman told journalists that “we have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues under discussion.” Repeated Iranian leaks have claimed that the US had agreed to terms that were favourable to the Iranian position on a host of issues, in a pattern repeated from previous rounds of negotiations, including those that led to the two previous ceasefires.
On Monday, Trump told his allies in the Gulf region that he expected them to join the Abraham Accords and normalise relations with Israel as part of any comprehensive deal which would bring the war to an end.
He also shared this demand publicly on his social media platform. “I am mandatorily requesting that all Countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords, and that, ⁠if Iran signs its Agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an Honor to have them also be part of this unparalleled World Coalition,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Trump pointed to Saudi Arabia and Qatar as countries that should “immediately” sign on, alongside Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates became the first countries to join in 2020.

Context: Putting together the leaks and hints from all sides, it is possible to sketch out provisionally three stages of an impending agreement, with more clarity about the beginning and end than the middle.

The first stage would come into effect right away, and would involve an end to the parallel blockades and some kind of waivers on selling Iranian oil. Then some kind of time-limited negotiation process would begin regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.
The third stage, if reached, would involve a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme that would presumably also include substantial sanctions relief for Iran. This would be negotiated during the ceasefire period, set to 60 days according to most of the leaks from the talks.
In the middle of this is the issue of Iran’s enriched uranium. Statements from the Americans indicate that Iran would agree to ship its highly enriched uranium (HEU) already at the beginning of the process.
US demands also refer to all enriched uranium, not just the highly enriched form, as something to be dealt with even before a comprehensive agreement. Iranian public statements, on the other hand, consistency put the issue of uranium as something to be included in the comprehensive agreement that is supposed to be reached at the end of the ceasefire.
In any event, though the public positions of the two sides about the beginning of the ceasefire and the negotiating framework are not very far apart, the positions about a final agreement are very far, and it is difficult to imagine that gap being bridged in only 60 days.
US observers were keen to see Trumps call about expanding the Abraham Accords a way to placate his hawkish critics at home, many of whom were vocal in their reservations about the impending nuclear deal with Iran.
The interlocking and overlapping geostrategic policy orientations of Gulf actors emerged as the central stage in the evolving US-Iranian drama.
But there were at least two other important messages Trump was sending with this surprising move:
- It put a temporary end to days of discussion that the US was proceeding in its Gulf diplomacy without involving Israel or taking Israel’s concerns into accounts.
- It expressed to America’s Gulf allies mounting frustrations with the high cost the US was paying for its efforts to scale back Iran’s nuclear ambitions without those allies putting anything on the table that would align with the US’s strategic interests too.
A further indication that Gulf diplomacy had now become as important as US-Iran and Israel-Lebanon diplomacy in reaching a regional settlement came in the revelation that the Director of Israel’s Shin Bet David Zini met with Mohammed Dahlan, once the Fatah strongman in Gaza and currently seen as a major player behind the scenes in the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) that is supposed to govern Gaza on a temporary basis as part of the comprehensive ceasefire which ended the war last October.
The meeting took place in the UAE, the Gulf country seen as closest to Israel and Dahlan’s home for more than a decade since his exile from the Palestinian Authority.
Dahlan functioned for years as a de facto ruler of Gaza until the 2007 coup which brought Hamas to power there.
Years later, he was exiled from the Fatah movement which he had long been affiliated with. Despite this, he has been heavily involved in civil society and aid initiatives in Gaza, mostly those sponsored by the UAE, which has been competing for influence in the Strip with Qatar.

Looking ahead: As the likelihood of renewed fighting in Iran recedes (at least for the next two months), Israel is likely to continue to step up its pressure on Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but without doing anything that will threaten American diplomatic priorities in the region.

In Gaza, the IDF yesterday successfully eliminated Muhammad Odeh, commander of Hamas’ military wing, who was only just appointed to the position following the killing of his predecessor by the IDF eleven days prior.
The IDF has taken up position beyond the so-called Yellow Line established at the ceasefire in Gaza. In Lebanon too, following a period of strict limitations on the IDF’s freedom of action, the army has also begun operating beyond ceasefire lines when facing imminent threats.

May 26, 2026

Hezbollah intensifies attacks on northern Israel

What’s happened: Hezbollah has sharply escalated its attacks on communities in northern Israel over the past few days.

On Monday, the group fired more than 30 explosive drones at Israeli towns and outposts along the border and at IDF forces operating inside southern Lebanon. The attacks triggered repeated sirens, forcing civilians into shelters, and wounded troops. One missile fired at the Galilee was intercepted by the Iron Dome system. Two drones hit a house in Metula, and a military site. Approximately 20 drones infiltrated Israeli territory, two hitting a building that houses foreign workers in Shtula.
Two more IDF soldiers were killed in an explosive drones trikes. On Friday, Staff Sgt. Noam Hamburger, a 23-year-old from Atlit, and on Sunday, Sgt. Nehorai Lazer, a 19-year-old resident of Eilat.
In response, the IDF reports striking more than 70 Hezbollah infrastructure sites across Lebanon, including roughly 10 command centres and weapons warehouses in the city of Tyre and other areas of southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. The IDF described the targeted sites as having been used by Hezbollah to plan and execute attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF forces.
The air force also struck Hezbollah operatives riding motorcycles in sectors where Israeli troops are deployed, as part of a broader effort to degrade the group’s mobility and targeting capability.
Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israeli forces have eliminated over 600 Hezbollah operatives in recent weeks and vowing to maintain and increase pressure. Addressing the residents of the north, he stressed their resilience and said Israel will “hit them head on” and overcome the drone threat.
In a video, Netanyahu said “We aren’t lifting our foot off the [gas] pedal. To the contrary, I told [the IDF] to press even harder on the pedal. We will strike them. It’s true, they’re firing drones, fiber-optic drones, at us. We have a special team that is working on that, and we’ll solve that too.”

Context: The escalation in Lebanon coincides with the continued diplomatic efforts by the US to reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran. Iran continues to insist on the linkage that any ceasefire includes Lebanon.

There is broad concern that with Israel not part of the negotiations, the country is reliant on US backing. This was reiterated by US Secretary of State Rubio who told reporters on Monday that “Israel always has a right to protect itself…If Hezbollah is going to launch missiles or launches missiles at them, Israel has every right to respond to that, or to prevent that from happening. That’s always been understood. It’s being understood during the ceasefire.”
Overall Israel’s current approach in Lebanon is a mix of:
- Sustained strikes and targeted operations aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s command, logistics, and drone infrastructure.
- Operational containment along the border.
- Diplomatic efforts through talks in Washington with representatives of the Lebanese government.
Since the ceasefire in mid-April it is estimated Hezbollah has fired more than 1,000 drones and around 700 rockets. Eleven Israelis have been killed and dozens injured.
At the same time, Israel has retrained from expanding ground offensive or striking Beirut.
IDF Northern Command describes Hezbollah’s repeated drone attacks on towns such as Metula and Shomera as having crossed an unacceptable red line.
Hezbollah’s decision to intensify its drone and rocket fire on northern Israel reflects a strategy of calibrated escalation in which they press their tactical advantage through the continued use of drones. Rather than trying to defeat Israel outright, Hezbollah aims to wear the IDF down through constant small-scale attacks.
Last night, the group released video footage demonstrating that it has drones fitted with thermal cameras, which would allow it to carry out nighttime drone strikes as well.
On the ground, Hezbollah have also resorted to traditional guerilla tactics. Some senior commanders see a similarity with the old Hezbollah terror cells of the 1990s before they became a sophisticated military. All this demonstrates that Hezbollah can still operate effectively despite incurring heavy losses.
Until a few days ago, Hezbollah focused its operations on IDF troops in southern Lebanon but has now begun to attack IDF outposts in Israel itself.
The IDF, meanwhile, is shifting from treating drones as a tactical nuisance to a strategic threat. The drone campaign has forced changes in operational rhythms, slowed the pace of village clearing, and pushed many activities to night‑time operations to reduce exposure.
A holistic solution does not yet exist to cope with Hezbollah fibre optic, First Person View (FPV) drones. Israel is rapidly exploring anti-drone technologies including nets, lasers, precision-fire systems, radar, acoustic sensors, and microwave weapons, but no comprehensive solution yet exists, as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated.
Israel’s key challenge remains to protect residents in northern Israel from being held in a state of prolonged insecurity. The longer the attacks continue, mounting questions arise as to whether this can be achieved militarily.
For the international community, the question is whether diplomatic efforts can produce a framework that strengthens the Lebanese state, constrains Hezbollah, and gives Israel a more predictable security environment along the border.

Looking ahead: As a result of the increased attacks schools near the northern border will not open today.

Senior IDF officials have presented a range of options to the security cabinet to approve a wider campaign inside Lebanon. They say that the current level of firepower is insufficient to fully deter Hezbollah’s stand‑off fire. The IDF is also working on plans to target Hezbollah’s drone‑infrastructure array as well as potentially target more of their senior commanders.

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