Iran and their Proxies

Updated June 10, 2026

US strikes Iran as Israel intensifies operations in Lebanon

What’s happened: A US Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Both crew members were rescued alive by an unmanned sea drone. According to CENTCOM, this is the first such rescue successfully carried out by an autonomous surface vessel.

Official Iranian media claimed that Iranian forces had not engaged in any aerial activities near the Strait, and for hours after the incident it was unclear what exactly had transpired. Then President Trump announced that the helicopter had been shot down by Iranian fire, with US officials confirming that an Iranian one-way Shahed drone had brought the helicopter down.
In response, US forces launched a limited air strike against Iranian air defence, radar, and ground control stations near the Strait of Hormuz. An official CENTCOM statement referred to the US operation as “self-defence strikes,” the preferred term of US officials for operations that are not intended to signal an end to the US-Iran ceasefire in effect since April 8.
The Iranians responded this morning with what they claimed were attacks on 21 US bases in the region. Iran also claimed to have shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over Iranian territory.
US officials denied that Iran had struck 21 or even fired at 21 sites. US and regional officials described successful interceptions of Iranian missiles over Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, where the target appears to have been a large US air base at Al Azraq.
The ceasefire that was effectively imposed by the Trump administration on Iran and Israel after one day of mutual fire on Monday held. The Iranian attempt to leverage missile launches on Israel to bail out its proxy in Lebanon failed to stop Israeli action in Lebanon, however. The IDF this morning announced further evacuation orders in southern Lebanon ahead of anticipated Israeli military strikes. Earlier today, the IDF carried out a large strike against Hezbollah targets in the Lebanese city of Tyre.
The Israeli operations in Lebanon, including fire beyond the Litani River, carry significance on two levels. They constitute offensive action against Hezbollah, which had been attacking northern Israel in the week before, and they demonstrate definitively that the Iranian attempt this week to create a new “equation” by which Iran could fire at Israeli cities if Israel operated in Lebanon, failed to produce the result desired by Tehran.
Also yesterday, an armed man in a military uniform crossed into Israel from Lebanon. When he was discovered by the IDF, he opened fire, but was eliminated by IDF fire.
The UK Government is advancing legislation in Parliament that would designate the IRGC as a “threat to national security,” potentially closing a loophole that made it difficult to apply existing anti-terrorism provisions to a state-run intelligence service, rather than a non-state actor, even one backed a sovereign state, as existing legislation permits. This follows the discovery of at least 20 suspected plots to carry out attacks in the UK, especially against Jewish targets.
This move occurs on the same day that the UK announced a raft of sanctions against six firms it alleges are complicit in enabling settler violence in the West Bank. The six associations are small fundraisers, none of which are known to have assets or activities in the UK. This announcement was accompanied by an announcement of £10 million in aid for the Palestinian Authority, that was, notably, not conditioned on any reform or an end to the Authority’s policy of paying families of convicted terrorists.

Context: The low-scale flare-up between US and Iranian forces in the Gulf, like the one day of fighting between Israel and Iran earlier this week, all occur on the backdrop of a feverish US effort to reach an agreement with Iran on its nuclear programme.

US officials have begun leaking to American media some of the areas of agreement between the two sides in negotiations thus far. These include:
- An Iranian commitment to suspend uranium enrichment for an extended period. The Iranians have apparently offered to suspend enrichment for ten years, while the US has demanded twenty. There was speculation the sides might agree on fifteen, though public pronouncements by President Trump indicate that the US will insist on twenty to reach an agreement.
- Iran will “downblend” all enriched uranium. Earlier the US had insisted that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium be shipped out of the country. This stockpile is estimated at roughly 480 kg and believed to be buried in the ruins of a nuclear site destroyed by US forces in Operation Midnight Hammer last summer. If the leak is true, then none of this stockpile would leave Iran; it would, rather, be diluted (or “downblended”) in Iran with an active US role. Moreover, the agreed downblending would apply not just to the 480kg of highly enriched uranium, but to all the estimated 11 tons of uranium that has been enriched, even to much lower levels.
- Iran would dismantle all three of its major nuclear sites in Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan. It is unclear if Iran has actually agreed to this or whether it is still insisting on shutting down only two out of three.
- A strict international inspections regime. Iran would have to agree to so-called “snap” inspections, which are unannounced ahead of time, by international inspectors, including at IRGC sites, where Iran had previously blocked inspectors’ access.
It is not known what the sides may or not have agreed to as far as the two parallel blockades imposed by the US and Iran, though it is widely believed both would be lifted quickly. It is much less likely, however, that any unfreezing of Iranian assets would happen as quickly, at least according to US sources.
Notably, none of the leaks about negotiations mention issues that were key points of contention in the lead-up to the war which began on February 28, including Iran’s support of regional proxy armies, its ballistic missile programme, or its violent suppression of protests in January of this year.
Global energy markets continue to adjust for Iran’s blockade, now more than 100 days old, on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While the process is hardly painless and affects major US allies differently — Saudi Arabia and the UAE have alternative to the Strait while Qatar does not — the impact of the Iranian blockade has so far been much less catastrophic than initially feared. On the other hand, the US blockade or Iranian ports continues to grind down the Iranian economy with Israeli officials believing a breaking point there may be only weeks away.

Looking ahead: In Cairo, talks are underway between Palestinian factions under an Egyptian-led effort to reach an agreement on implementing the Gaza ceasefire and finding a workable formulation for Hamas disarmament, a key provision of the ceasefire. A successful agreement could pave the way for the “technocratic” committee to enter Gaza and bring the comprehensive agreement, which ended the war in October 2025, to the next stage.

Israeli officials are markedly pessimistic about any real mechanism for Hamas disarmament. According to Israeli analysts, Hamas has managed to retrench and rebuild its military and governing capacities in the roughly 40% of the Gaza Strip which it still controls.
Failure to implement the disarmament clause of the comprehensive agreement increases the likelihood that at some point the IDF will enter the rest of Gaza and forcibly disarm Hamas itself. In the war which began on October 7, 2023 and ended two years later with the comprehensive agreement, Israeli forces refrained from entering Hamas redoubts in central Gaza’s refugee camps for fear of harming Israeli hostages who were largely held in, and under, those densely populated areas. These hostages are all now home.

June 9, 2026

Schools in Israel reopen

What’s happened: Home Front Command restrictions have been lifted nationwide, including schools that have reopened this morning.

The only exception is in communities along the Lebanese border where a “partial activity tier” was declared in towns on and near the confrontation line. People in these areas can work and hold classes only in structures or places from which they can access suitable protected areas.
Confrontation Line Communities Forum Chairman Moshe Davidovich shared the frustration felt by the area’s residents following the policy update. Davidovich told Kan News, “Again, we’re back to colours: Red, orange, green. Our children aren’t traffic lights. While the whole country gets back to normal, ostensibly green, we’re going back to the ongoing nightmare of war in the confrontation line communities, and we’re alone. We’re in dark conditions, darker than dark.”*
He was referring to the new features on the Home Front Command alert app which has new colours and sounds to distinguish warning stages: yellow for preparedness, red for entering protected spaces and green for the all-clear. The Home Front Command used the ceasefire period to introduce changes to its mobile app, making it easier to distinguish between different types of alerts.
Overnight two drones infiltrated into Israeli territory, one from the north and one from the south. A drone that was fired from Yemen was intercepted near Eilat after midnight. At the same time, sirens were sounded twice in towns in the western Galilee, where a drone was also intercepted.
At the conclusion of yesterday’s security cabinet meeting, it was decided to keep striking the Dahiya Quarter in Beirut in retaliation for every projectile launched at Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Iran against renewing its attacks on Israel. Netanyahu said: “Currently, they’re holding their fire on this front because after we hit the terrorist regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us. If the terrorist regime makes the mistake of attacking us again, we will retaliate forcefully because Israel has the absolute right to self-defence, which we exercise as necessary.”

Context: It appears the fighting between Israel and Iran is over for now. The Iranian missile attacks and subsequent Israel response were the first direct hostilities between the two countries since April’s shaky ceasefire took effect.

This most recent escalation began on Sunday evening when Iran fired salvoes of missiles at northern Israel, ostensibly in response to Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut. Israel retaliated with its own air strikes on aerial defence systems as well as a petrochemical facility in southwest Iran which it said was being used to manufacture raw materials used for ballistic missiles.
In total, Iran is estimated to have fired approximately 21 projectiles at Israel, all of which were successfully intercepted without causing any damage.
The Houthis in Yemen also attempted to launch two projectiles, one of which dropped short of Israel while the other was successfully intercepted. The Houthis have also renewed their threat to prevent Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea.
Responding to the escalation, President Trump stated on the Truth social media site that “Israel and Iran must stop shooting”, and is reported to have threatened that Israel may find itself alone and unsupported in the event that it further escalated conflict with Iran.
According to reports Trump also told Netanyahu that he would have to “use sense”, but that he was also “very close to signing a very powerful deal” details of which remain unspecified.
Both Israel and Iran have indicated a willingness to resume hostilities, but their shared short-term intent is for the ceasefire to hold.

Looking ahead: The IDF is still manoeuvring in southern Lebanon and expected to continue to target Hezbollah fighters and military infrastructure.

In parallel, talks in Washington between the Israeli and Lebanese government representatives are also expected to continue.
In an interview with CNN, Lebanon’s President Aoun went as far as to accuse Iran of using his country as a “bargaining chip” in negotiations with the US, making further comments that were highly critical of Hezbollah and the IRGC.
President Aoun asserted that Israel should withdraw its troops from Lebanon, and that only then could Hezbollah be “dealt with” by Beirut. He also appealed for Israel to engage in peace talks, and confirmed that the current round of US-brokered negotiations were intended to reach a non-aggression pact rather than full peace deal.

June 8, 2026

Israel responds to Iranian escalation

What’s happened: Iran fired ten missiles at northern Israel yesterday evening, acting on its threat to retaliate for an Israeli strike on Beirut.

Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force struck military and infrastructure targets across western and central Iran, including radars and anti-aircraft batteries, which will help facilitate operational freedom moving forward.
A single ballistic missile was fired by the Houthis in Yemen at central Israel at around 6:00 local time this morning. Iran then fired a number of missiles at central Israel roughly an hour later. All of the incoming projectiles were intercepted by IDF air-defence systems.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump spoke yesterday in the aftermath of Iran’s first missile barrage on northern Israel. According to Israeli media reports Trump said that he believes that Israel had “retaliated enough and should not retaliate further.”
Earlier Trump said in an interview to the Financial Times that Netanyahu would have no choice but to accept a deal with Iran. He stressed that he is the one who makes the decisions, not Netanyahu.
IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Defrin said, “The regime is trying to create a new equation, when it directly fires at our territory in response to IDF attacks on the Dahiya Quarter. We will not allow this. We attacked the Dahiya Quarter following Hezbollah’s endless fire on communities in northern Israel. The IDF will continue to operate throughout Lebanon and will intensify its strikes on the Hezbollah terrorist organisation. We will not allow fire to continue at the citizens of the State of Israel.”
Earlier on Sunday morning, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israeli communities for the first time in four days. Two rockets that were fired at Ramot Naftali and Yiftah were intercepted.

Reactions: Domestically the Israeli government faced more criticism.

Leader of the Together Party Bennett said, “This is a test moment: is Israel a sovereign country that is capable of defending itself? Countenancing or a token response will signal to the enemy that our citizens’ blood has been made forfeit. That is why Israel must act powerfully and effectively. On this issue, all of us, all citizens of Israel, stand together.”
Yisrael Beiteinu leader Liberman also called for powerful Israeli retaliation: “Enough with the containment. We have to respond immediately and to strike Iran’s strategic infrastructure.”
The Democrats leader Golan said, “Our enemies see what everyone sees: Netanyahu is weak. Despite the military achievements, our enemies see that Netanyahu is a weak and failed leader. They see the string of failures, the political indecision and the personal politics that have been running the war—and they have concluded that Netanyahu is weak and that we can be attacked.”
Blue and White leader Gantz said, “The fighting in Lebanon should never have been stopped as part of the ceasefire with Iran. That strategic mistake needs to be corrected with powerful retaliation in Iran, but equally important, with ongoing attacks on the Dahiya.”

Context: There is a consensus in Israel that Iran cannot be allowed to create a new equation that Israeli action in Lebanon elicits an attack from Iran.

This explicit linkage did not exist before the war that began three months ago, and despite forty days of bombardment, Israel is concerned that at the current juncture Iran appears to be emboldened. This is partly explained by Trump’s apparent eagerness to do a deal that has allowed Iran to exert further demands.
Israel is well disposed to reach a ceasefire with Lebanon and even an eventual peace agreement, but the stranglehold that Iran maintains through Hezbollah has to be broken first. At the end of last week the US government announced an agreed ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese government however shortly afterwards Hezbollah rejected the agreement.
For weeks Israel had restrained itself from striking Hezbollah assets in Beirut – at Trump’s request. However after the latest barrage of rockets and drones on northern Israel over the weekend and two more IDF fatalities in southern Lebanon, Israel did respond by targeting a Hezbollah command centre in Beirut.
In the Israeli assessment there remain over 2,000 Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon. Until they are removed Israel will feel compelled to continue its operations in the area.
Israeli attention also remains focused on the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, despite not being part of the process. While Israel will be sensitive to US demands, it is perturbed by the non-responses from Gulf states have had to absorb ongoing strikes from Iran. That is an unacceptable situation from Israel’s perspective.
Iran was possibly working on the assumption that as Trump wants a deal, he will therefore restrain Israel from resuming attacks. Israel for its part needs to mark out space from the US position, as it has a duty to defend its citizens from attack.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet will meet shortly and discuss the next operational steps.

The IDF remains on high alert and preparing for several days of clashes. As part of the preparation it is planning to mobilise a large number of reservists and to deploy reinforcements along all the borders.
A Houthi spokesperson has threatened to stop Israeli maritime traffic in the Red Sea.

June 3, 2026

US-Iran exchange fire as tense Lebanon ceasefire holds

What’s happened: On a backdrop of negotiations for a comprehensive US-Iran agreement, low intensity exchanges of fire continued in the last day.

US forces fired at a Botswana-flagged tanker that was heading toward Kharg Island in violation of the US-imposed blockade of Iranian ports. The tanker’s engine was disabled in the attack.
Following that incident, Iran launched several drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. According to American sources, the drones fired at Kuwait “fell short or broke apart” and the ones fired at Bahrain were successfully intercepted.
The US subsequently responded by striking an Iranian military facility on Qeshm Island.
There were no rocket attacks on Israel’s north overnight, as a tense ceasefire held.
Over recent days, Hezbollah had expanded the range of its attacks on Israel as well as keeping up a steady stream of drone attacks on IDF positions in southern Lebanon.
An imminent attack on a Hezbollah stronghold was reportedly called off at the last minute at the insistence of the Trump administration which pressured both sides to cease fire in the last 24 hours so as not to threaten the ongoing US-Iran talks.
The Israeli Government yesterday approved a plan for a massive investment in Israel’s battered northern communities. The plan would allocate 13 billion shekels (about £3.4 billion) in addition to the already approved 7 billion shekels from earlier decisions (about £1.8). The money will go to reconstruction, grants to small business owners, wage subsidies for hi-tech firms based in the north, and several headline projects in the Kiryat Shmona, including establishing an emergency medical facility there and a partial relocation of the nearby Tel Hai Academic College into the city itself.
Seated next to Kiryat Shemona’s mayor, Prime Minister Netanyahu spelled out the goals of the new investment plan, and said that his Government “is committed not only to the development of the North, but also to ensuring the security of the residents. There is no containment or leniency; we are acting against every threat in real-time.”
The new chief of Israel’s Mossad officially entered office yesterday. Roman Gofman, a major General in reserves who previously served as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s military secretary assumed his new position after the Supreme Court rejected petitions against his appointment.
At the ceremony yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu noted the Mossad’s central role in Israel’s longstanding conflict with Iran, saying that it “will continue to stand at the forefront of our struggle against Iran’s aggression. In continuation of the consistent policy we have been leading for years – we will not allow the Iranian regime to turn back the clock. We will not allow it to acquire nuclear weapons; we will not allow it to threaten our existence. This terrorist regime, which is destined to vanish from the world, and we will help it reach this goal, this regime will no longer threaten us with nuclear bombs and thousands of lethal ballistic missiles.”

Context: Though the US and Iran have not yet concluded an agreement that would definitively end the war which began on February 28 this year, both sides appear to believe an agreement is in reach. This was the main reason why an Iranian threat to quit the talks unless the US could force Israel to scale back its attacks was taken so seriously by the Trump administration.

The administration not only pressured Israel to back down from a planned strike agains Hezbollah targets in Beirut, it also leaked the contents of several tense phone calls between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
There were conflicting reports about what the planned strike was supposed to look like and what Trump and Netanyahu had agreed to beforehand. According to one report in Israeli media, the evacuation order for the Dahiya district in Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, was issued in line with an agreement between the two leaders that Israel would threaten to attack the Dahiya but not actually carry out the threat, the idea being that an imminent strike would pressure Hezbollah to agree to cease its attacks.
At some point after the evacuation began, the Trump administration came under the impression that Israel was planning on going through with the strike and not just bluffing as had been agreed upon, and this is what led to the tense phone call between the President and the Prime Minister.
Israeli decision-makers are concerned that the emerging deal looks similar to the understandings that held during the 1990s, under which Israel was only allowed to respond with significant military strikes if its cities in the north were attacked, while its options for military action in response to attacks on its soldiers in southern Lebanon were extremely limited.
In the last seven years of the Security Zone (1993-2000), this understanding of the “rules of the game” led to many IDF casualties without the IDF having any real leverage over the Lebanese state or Hezbollah itself to stop them. It is particularly concerning now as Hezbollah has been able to use FPV drones to sustain a level of casualties on the Israeli side that is actually considerably higher than anything it did in the days of the unlamented Security Zone (1985-2000).
The leaked content of tense phone calls between Trump and Netanyahu reverberated in Israeli domestic politics too. Israeli politicians and media figures, not all associated with the right, criticised the Prime Minister for capitulating to the President’s demands and not following through on his threat to attack the Dahiya. Others noted that Israel has so tightly bound itself to Trump that it has lost any freedom of action.
It was not lost on domestic commentators that Trump explicitly invoked Netanyahu’s legal troubles as a lever of pressure on him. That he was willing to raise the topic and take credit for keeping Netanyahu out of jail (“You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass,” Trump was reported as having said to the Prime Minster) is one thing. That someone at the White House choose to include those quotes in leaks about the phone call is even graver, both from the perspective of the Prime Minister himself and the entire political system, already wound up for an upcoming election where the question of the Prime Minister’s capacity to manage Israel’s multi-front wars while on trial for corruption is a major issue.

Looking ahead: The fourth round of talks between representatives of Israel and Lebanon are due to continue today in Washington. The US will reportedly propose a plan where the US will directly train Lebanese Armed Forces to deal with Hezbollah and carry out any disarmament agreed to in the talks.

Another idea to be raised in the talks is the creation of “pilot zones,” which would be designated blocks of territory where Israeli troops would withdraw and hand over the territory directly to the LAF. Assuming Hezbollah is prevented from reestablishing its presence in the pilot zones, these could be multiplied and expanded.

June 2, 2026

Trump declares Lebanon ceasefire, but fighting continues

What’s happened: President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on Monday night, in what Trump described as a “very productive call” to discuss the latest developments in Lebanon and the region.

Trump continued on his Truth Social post, “there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop – That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel.”
Following the call Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “I spoke this evening with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not stop firing at our cities and citizens – Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut. This position of ours remain unchanged. Concurrently, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon.”
However it appears that Israel cancelled the strikes on Beirut, hours after Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz announced that they instructed the IDF to strike Hezbollah targets in Dahiya in southern Beirut.
US media described their conversation as “fraught.” According to Axios, “Trump’s anger appeared to be driven by the fact that Netanyahu’s decision to escalate in Lebanon was threatening to implode his negotiations with Iran.” Trump reportedly said to Netanyahu, “You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.”
In domestic Israeli politics the bill to dissolve the Knesset was carried in its first reading last night by a majority vote of 106 MKs. No one voted against.

Context: Despite a declared ceasefire the fighting has continued. Last night around 20 rockets were fired last out of Lebanon into northern Israel.

A drone that infiltrated the western Galilee exploded in a military area. No one was injured.However, once more an explosive drone targeted and killed an IDF officer inside southern Lebanon. Cpt. Dr. Ori Yosef Silvester a thirty year old doctor of the Givati Brigade. Seven IDF soldiers were wounded in the attack, which was carried out by multiple drones not far from the Beaufort Castle. Three were hospitalised in serious condition.
This morning the Israeli Air Force struck various Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
Earlier on Monday, Netanyahu had declared, “There will not be a situation in which Hezbollah attacks our cities and our citizens, and its terrorist headquarters in Beirut, in Dahiya, remains out of bounds. We are continuing to deepen our operational activity on the ground in southern Lebanon and are eliminating Hezbollah strongholds. Hezbollah is on the run. We are determined to restore security to the residents of the north, just as we did for the residents of the south.”
These comments elicited criticism from within the security establishment that felt the premature pronouncement served as an early warning to senior Hezbollah figures, allowing them to hide or disperse.
Trump’s intervention was also the second time that the IDF turned planes around on his instruction while they were en-route to a strategic strike. Last time it was Tehran (in June 2025), this time it was Beirut.
Prior to the Trump – Netanyahu call, Iran threatened to attack Israel and “advised” residents of northern Israel to leave the area should Beirut be attacked.
The public announcements on both sides appear to play into Iran’s hands as they successfully maintain the linkage between fighting in Lebanon and their negotiations with the US.
Israel apparent u-turn led to criticism across the board, with politicians posting on social media:
- Minister Ben Gvir wrote, “Mr. Prime Minister, you said that a strong prime minister says ‘yes’ to the president of the United States when possible and ‘no’ when necessary. Now is the time to tell our friend, President Trump, ‘no.’ Now is the time to do what needs and must be done to strike at Hezbollah, to unfetter our troops and to restore security to the north.”
- Leader of the Opposition Lapid wrote, “A client state in full.”
- Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Liberman wrote, “This isn’t a prime minister—this is a puppet!”
- Yashar Chairman Eisenkot, “Never has there been an Israeli prime minister who has submissively accepted a demand like this, which is patently unreasonable! Hezbollah is an enemy in Beirut’s Dahiya and in Baalbek, we need to strike Hezbollah in every place where it is deployed, and not to tie the IDF’s hands.” Adding, “What Netanyahu, the cabinet and the security cabinet are doing today is damaging to the State of Israel’s national interests out of weakness. And don’t let them tell you stories about the connection to the United States’ negotiations with Iran. Lebanon is here, Metula is taking fire, Israeli communities are empty and that is unconscionable. And the person who is doing that is the man who preached morality to everyone about the fundamental need as prime minister to say ‘no’ to the president of the United States when the State of Israel’s interests are being damaged.”
Due to the Trump – Netanyahu call the ceremony for new head of Mossad was postponed to today. Earlier in the day the High Court of Justice rejected petitions calling for the cancelling of Roman Gofman’s appointment. The court determined two-to-one that although there were failures with how Gofman handled a controversial incident from 2022, he did not deliberately mislead an investigation into the affair or abandon Ori Elmakayes, the individual at the centre of the allegations against Gofman.

Looking ahead: Gofman is set to replace outgoing Mossad chief Barnea in a ceremony later today.

The bill to disperse the Knesset now returns to the Knesset House Committee for further preparation ahead of its second and third readings. The coalition parties have agreed that the general election would be held at some point between September 8 and October 20, though no final date has been set yet. In practical terms, only the option of holding the election on September 1 was removed from the agenda.

May 28, 2026

US circulates ceasefire draft

What’s happened: The US has reportedly circulated amongst its allies a draft of a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) with the main points of the possible ceasefire with Iran.

Iran yesterday launched four one-way attack drones at commercial vessels as well as at US Navy ships. US fighter jets shot down all four drones and hit a fifth as it was being launched. Subsequently, the US also hit the drone control station in Bandar Abbas, the Iranian port on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran hit back with a drone attack on a US base in Kuwait.
As with the air strike conducted earlier this week, US officials were keen to characterise this attack as both limited and defensive and not something which signals an end to the ceasefire that has been in effect since April 8.
All this occurs on the backdrop of negotiations for a more comprehensive ceasefire which would see the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic and set a framework for Iran and the US to reach a detailed agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme. The ceasefire would last for sixty days, with a possibility of renewal if an agreement isn’t reached in time but the sides believe one is possible.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to launch deadly drone attack. The latest casualty was a 20 year old female solider Sgt. Rotem Yanai. Her death brings to 24 the number of Israeli soldiers killed in the war with Hezbollah, which began on March 2 this year. Four Israeli civilians have also been killed.
Israel launched a wave of air strikes against Hezbollah targets in the Lebanese city of Tyre following the attack in northern Israel yesterday. The air strikes began two hours after the IDF issued evacuation orders for Tyre.

Context: The text of the MOU has not been reported publicly in full, and it was not entirely clear if the version that was circulated was already agreed to by both sides or just a US position paper on a likely agreement.

Iranian state media also reported a draft of a 14-point MOU, though it was likewise unclear whether this was a version that had already been agreed to or an Iranian paper of what is assessed to be a likely point of agreement.
It was widely understood in all versions that the agreement would call for an immediate opening of the Strait to maritime traffic, with an Iranian commitment to ensure a full restoration of commercial, but not military, traffic to prewar levels within one month of the agreement going into effect. The Iranian version also explicitly referenced US commitments for a limited withdrawal of US forces from the area also in the early stages of the ceasefire.
The Iranians have also raised the issue of a joint venture with Oman to manage traffic across the Strait of Hormuz, and presumably to divide tolls levied on what has until now been an international waterway between the two countries.
President Trump reacted angrily to the proposal to establish a mechanism of any kind for charging tolls, saying, “The strait is going to be open to everybody,” Trump declared on Tuesday. “Nobody’s going to control it. We’re going to watch over it. We’ll watch over it. But nobody’s going to control it.” When asked specifically about the possibility of Oman collaborating with Iran on the matter, he was even blunter, saying, “Oman will behave just like everybody else. Or else we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that. They’ll be fine.”
Pakistan was the lead mediator for talks on the military issues and the blockade. The Iranian attempt to bring Oman onboard for its envisioned toll mechanism was conducted directly in talks in Muscat, Oman. But it is Doha, where talks are underway for a less noticed issue that appears to be the last major point of disagreement between the two sides.
The Iranians are demanding at least a partial release of billions of dollars of frozen assets. The US has long had the position that this could only be discussed as part of a comprehensive diplomatic agreement that would end Iran’s nuclear programme, as well as hopefully also impose limitations on its ballistic missile programme and its support for regional proxies.
The Iranians would like to see about $24 billion in frozen bank assets, roughly one fifth of the estimated total of frozen assets, unfrozen in the pending ceasefire deal. The US has consistently refused to consider this as part of an early phase of any ceasefire, for fear of granting the Islamist regime a lifeline that it could use to its own benefit should the ceasefire fall apart or no later agreement be reached.
In Doha, the Iranians are demanding $12 billion to be unfrozen upfront, including $6 billion held in Qatar, right at the beginning of the ceasefire — in other words, the Iranians would get the money just for opening the Strait which was open before the war, without even yet agreeing to limitations on their nuclear programme, which, if agreed, would only come sixty days later.

Looking ahead: The Knesset is due to vote on Monday on a bill to dissolve parliament and set early elections. Elections are currently scheduled for October 27, and, since there is a minimum 90-day period between dissolution and general elections, the only possible dates for an early election would not be all that early — sometime in September or October of this year.

The issue that led to the current coalition’s fracture was the attempt to enshrine into law the ongoing exemption from conscription enjoyed by Haredi men that has been ruled illegal by the Supreme Court under current law.
Though it is now clear that no such legislation will pass in the current parliament, the issue still causes ruptures on the legislation that the coalition remains committed to passing before dissolution.
Yesterday, a controversial bill to undo the cancelling of daycare subsidies for children of fathers who did not serve in the military passed after an unusual threat by ultra-Orthodox lawmakers against Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Likud party he leads. The bill was not initially supported by the Likud, whose voter base strongly opposes the measure. The ultra-Orthodox UTJ party threatened that if the Likud did not vote for the bill, they would support the establishment of a State Commission of Inquiry into the security failures leading to October 7, something all the opposition parties (and huge majorities of the Israeli public) support.
The current Government opposes such a Commission as it argues that the appointment mechanism, which relies on Supreme Court judges, would bias any Commission it forms against it. At the last minute, Likud lawmakers, with one exception, supported the bill, and it passed.

May 27, 2026

Trump pushes for Abraham Accords expansion as part of Iran deal

What’s happened: The US launched a limited air strike against Iranian targets around Bandar Abbas on the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz.

US officials characterised the strike as “self-defence,” hinting that it was in responding to an imminent threat. The strike occurred on a backdrop of feverish diplomacy to reach an extended ceasefire that would see the parallel blockades of the Strait, by Iran and the US, lifted while a longer-term agreement is hashed out.
Public statements from all major actors indicated that an agreement for a sixty-day ceasefire, more comprehensive than the one that ended the fighting in April but still far short of an agreement on outstanding issues, was within reach. This was a dramatic shift in tone from the weekend, when renewed hostilities seemed imminent.
The change of tone began with President Trump himself, who posted on social media that “negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all—Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before—And nobody wants that!”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters in New Delhi regarding talks underway in Qatar emphasised the importance of reopening the Strait in the proposed deal, a further indication that the staged process would first end the blockade and then lead to negotiations over the nuclear programme and sanctions relief. Rubio alluded to a “pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait [and] enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter.”
Iranian officials, for their part, also claimed that an agreement was close. A Foreign Ministry spokesman told journalists that “we have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues under discussion.” Repeated Iranian leaks have claimed that the US had agreed to terms that were favourable to the Iranian position on a host of issues, in a pattern repeated from previous rounds of negotiations, including those that led to the two previous ceasefires.
On Monday, Trump told his allies in the Gulf region that he expected them to join the Abraham Accords and normalise relations with Israel as part of any comprehensive deal which would bring the war to an end.
He also shared this demand publicly on his social media platform. “I am mandatorily requesting that all Countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords, and that, ⁠if Iran signs its Agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an Honor to have them also be part of this unparalleled World Coalition,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Trump pointed to Saudi Arabia and Qatar as countries that should “immediately” sign on, alongside Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates became the first countries to join in 2020.

Context: Putting together the leaks and hints from all sides, it is possible to sketch out provisionally three stages of an impending agreement, with more clarity about the beginning and end than the middle.

The first stage would come into effect right away, and would involve an end to the parallel blockades and some kind of waivers on selling Iranian oil. Then some kind of time-limited negotiation process would begin regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.
The third stage, if reached, would involve a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme that would presumably also include substantial sanctions relief for Iran. This would be negotiated during the ceasefire period, set to 60 days according to most of the leaks from the talks.
In the middle of this is the issue of Iran’s enriched uranium. Statements from the Americans indicate that Iran would agree to ship its highly enriched uranium (HEU) already at the beginning of the process.
US demands also refer to all enriched uranium, not just the highly enriched form, as something to be dealt with even before a comprehensive agreement. Iranian public statements, on the other hand, consistency put the issue of uranium as something to be included in the comprehensive agreement that is supposed to be reached at the end of the ceasefire.
In any event, though the public positions of the two sides about the beginning of the ceasefire and the negotiating framework are not very far apart, the positions about a final agreement are very far, and it is difficult to imagine that gap being bridged in only 60 days.
US observers were keen to see Trumps call about expanding the Abraham Accords a way to placate his hawkish critics at home, many of whom were vocal in their reservations about the impending nuclear deal with Iran.
The interlocking and overlapping geostrategic policy orientations of Gulf actors emerged as the central stage in the evolving US-Iranian drama.
But there were at least two other important messages Trump was sending with this surprising move:
- It put a temporary end to days of discussion that the US was proceeding in its Gulf diplomacy without involving Israel or taking Israel’s concerns into accounts.
- It expressed to America’s Gulf allies mounting frustrations with the high cost the US was paying for its efforts to scale back Iran’s nuclear ambitions without those allies putting anything on the table that would align with the US’s strategic interests too.
A further indication that Gulf diplomacy had now become as important as US-Iran and Israel-Lebanon diplomacy in reaching a regional settlement came in the revelation that the Director of Israel’s Shin Bet David Zini met with Mohammed Dahlan, once the Fatah strongman in Gaza and currently seen as a major player behind the scenes in the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) that is supposed to govern Gaza on a temporary basis as part of the comprehensive ceasefire which ended the war last October.
The meeting took place in the UAE, the Gulf country seen as closest to Israel and Dahlan’s home for more than a decade since his exile from the Palestinian Authority.
Dahlan functioned for years as a de facto ruler of Gaza until the 2007 coup which brought Hamas to power there.
Years later, he was exiled from the Fatah movement which he had long been affiliated with. Despite this, he has been heavily involved in civil society and aid initiatives in Gaza, mostly those sponsored by the UAE, which has been competing for influence in the Strip with Qatar.

Looking ahead: As the likelihood of renewed fighting in Iran recedes (at least for the next two months), Israel is likely to continue to step up its pressure on Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but without doing anything that will threaten American diplomatic priorities in the region.

In Gaza, the IDF yesterday successfully eliminated Muhammad Odeh, commander of Hamas’ military wing, who was only just appointed to the position following the killing of his predecessor by the IDF eleven days prior.
The IDF has taken up position beyond the so-called Yellow Line established at the ceasefire in Gaza. In Lebanon too, following a period of strict limitations on the IDF’s freedom of action, the army has also begun operating beyond ceasefire lines when facing imminent threats.

May 26, 2026

Hezbollah intensifies attacks on northern Israel

What’s happened: Hezbollah has sharply escalated its attacks on communities in northern Israel over the past few days.

On Monday, the group fired more than 30 explosive drones at Israeli towns and outposts along the border and at IDF forces operating inside southern Lebanon. The attacks triggered repeated sirens, forcing civilians into shelters, and wounded troops. One missile fired at the Galilee was intercepted by the Iron Dome system. Two drones hit a house in Metula, and a military site. Approximately 20 drones infiltrated Israeli territory, two hitting a building that houses foreign workers in Shtula.
Two more IDF soldiers were killed in an explosive drones trikes. On Friday, Staff Sgt. Noam Hamburger, a 23-year-old from Atlit, and on Sunday, Sgt. Nehorai Lazer, a 19-year-old resident of Eilat.
In response, the IDF reports striking more than 70 Hezbollah infrastructure sites across Lebanon, including roughly 10 command centres and weapons warehouses in the city of Tyre and other areas of southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. The IDF described the targeted sites as having been used by Hezbollah to plan and execute attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF forces.
The air force also struck Hezbollah operatives riding motorcycles in sectors where Israeli troops are deployed, as part of a broader effort to degrade the group’s mobility and targeting capability.
Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israeli forces have eliminated over 600 Hezbollah operatives in recent weeks and vowing to maintain and increase pressure. Addressing the residents of the north, he stressed their resilience and said Israel will “hit them head on” and overcome the drone threat.
In a video, Netanyahu said “We aren’t lifting our foot off the [gas] pedal. To the contrary, I told [the IDF] to press even harder on the pedal. We will strike them. It’s true, they’re firing drones, fiber-optic drones, at us. We have a special team that is working on that, and we’ll solve that too.”

Context: The escalation in Lebanon coincides with the continued diplomatic efforts by the US to reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran. Iran continues to insist on the linkage that any ceasefire includes Lebanon.

There is broad concern that with Israel not part of the negotiations, the country is reliant on US backing. This was reiterated by US Secretary of State Rubio who told reporters on Monday that “Israel always has a right to protect itself…If Hezbollah is going to launch missiles or launches missiles at them, Israel has every right to respond to that, or to prevent that from happening. That’s always been understood. It’s being understood during the ceasefire.”
Overall Israel’s current approach in Lebanon is a mix of:
- Sustained strikes and targeted operations aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s command, logistics, and drone infrastructure.
- Operational containment along the border.
- Diplomatic efforts through talks in Washington with representatives of the Lebanese government.
Since the ceasefire in mid-April it is estimated Hezbollah has fired more than 1,000 drones and around 700 rockets. Eleven Israelis have been killed and dozens injured.
At the same time, Israel has retrained from expanding ground offensive or striking Beirut.
IDF Northern Command describes Hezbollah’s repeated drone attacks on towns such as Metula and Shomera as having crossed an unacceptable red line.
Hezbollah’s decision to intensify its drone and rocket fire on northern Israel reflects a strategy of calibrated escalation in which they press their tactical advantage through the continued use of drones. Rather than trying to defeat Israel outright, Hezbollah aims to wear the IDF down through constant small-scale attacks.
Last night, the group released video footage demonstrating that it has drones fitted with thermal cameras, which would allow it to carry out nighttime drone strikes as well.
On the ground, Hezbollah have also resorted to traditional guerilla tactics. Some senior commanders see a similarity with the old Hezbollah terror cells of the 1990s before they became a sophisticated military. All this demonstrates that Hezbollah can still operate effectively despite incurring heavy losses.
Until a few days ago, Hezbollah focused its operations on IDF troops in southern Lebanon but has now begun to attack IDF outposts in Israel itself.
The IDF, meanwhile, is shifting from treating drones as a tactical nuisance to a strategic threat. The drone campaign has forced changes in operational rhythms, slowed the pace of village clearing, and pushed many activities to night‑time operations to reduce exposure.
A holistic solution does not yet exist to cope with Hezbollah fibre optic, First Person View (FPV) drones. Israel is rapidly exploring anti-drone technologies including nets, lasers, precision-fire systems, radar, acoustic sensors, and microwave weapons, but no comprehensive solution yet exists, as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated.
Israel’s key challenge remains to protect residents in northern Israel from being held in a state of prolonged insecurity. The longer the attacks continue, mounting questions arise as to whether this can be achieved militarily.
For the international community, the question is whether diplomatic efforts can produce a framework that strengthens the Lebanese state, constrains Hezbollah, and gives Israel a more predictable security environment along the border.

Looking ahead: As a result of the increased attacks schools near the northern border will not open today.

Senior IDF officials have presented a range of options to the security cabinet to approve a wider campaign inside Lebanon. They say that the current level of firepower is insufficient to fully deter Hezbollah’s stand‑off fire. The IDF is also working on plans to target Hezbollah’s drone‑infrastructure array as well as potentially target more of their senior commanders.

May 20, 2026

Fighting in Lebanon continues despite ceasefire extension

What’s happened: Another IDF officer was killed in combat with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon yesterday. Maj. (res.) Itamar Sapir from the settlement Eli was 27 years old. His unit was operating in the Lebanese village of Qouza when a Hezbollah gunman surprised the forces by exiting the village church and opening fire.

Israeli Navy troops completed the interception of the flotilla to Gaza and placed all 430 activists on board Israeli vessels. Around fifty vessels were boarded and are presently en route to the port of Ashdod, where the activists will be detained before deportation. Israeli officials were keen to point out the absence of actual aid onboard the ships.
A report in The New York Times based largely on anonymous American claimed that Israel and the United States sought to install former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as leader of Iran in a complex and ultimately unsuccessful effort to topple the Iranian regime in the initial days of the war earlier this year.
The article detailed how an air strike that appeared to miss Ahmadinejad right after the war broke out on February 28 had in fact successfully taken out the IRGC forces who were enforcing his informal house arrest.
The article hinted heavily that Ahmadinejad had been in contact with Israeli intelligence before the war broke out, citing an investigation in New Lines magazine, an outlet that is widely seen as a pro-Qatari organ (though not identified as such in The New York Times article).
Ahmadinejad’s record of anti-Israel provocations and Holocaust denial would make him an astonishing partner, to say the least. And it is always possible (though, again, not mentioned in the article), that such a leak is deliberately designed to scuttle his political standing in Iran and increase regime paranoia about its penetration by Israeli intelligence.

Context: The losses of IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon, particularly in the context of the “ceasefire,” are taking a toll on morale both in public opinion and in the IDF. Soldiers and officers express mounting frustration with the terms of the ceasefire which, informally, restrict offensive Israel action outside of Israel’s zone of control in southern Lebanon, while leaving soldiers there exposed to Hezbollah fire. Hezbollah arms depots and senior leaders are mostly north of the Litani River, where the IDF has largely refrained from action in keeping with US requests not to disrupt the negotiations with Iran.

Twenty-two Israelis have been killed in Lebanon since the war began on March 2. Eight have been killed since the ceasefire was announced on April 16.
The Lebanese Health Ministry reported earlier this week that the death toll in Lebanon from the renewed fighting with Israel since March has now topped 3,000. The official figures do not distinguish between combatant and noncombatant casualties, but they do include 292 women and 211 children. With 83% of the reported fatalities comprising adult men. This would indicate a low level of civilian casualties in the war so far. Israeli officials believe the Lebanese figure may be an undercount as not all Hezbollah fatalities are reported to Lebanese officials.
The ceasefire which brought an end to high-intensity hostilities on April 16 was originally set to last ten days. It was informally renewed to allow further negotiations, while its scope was also informally narrowed by all sides. The renewed ceasefire was due to expire May 17, but just before that deadline, a US-brokered agreement between Lebanon and Israel formally extended the ceasefire by another 45 days, bringing its scheduled expiration up to July 1. Observers on all sides are sceptical it could hold up if fighting resumes in the Iranian theatre.
A resumption of active combat in the Iranian theatre will presumably end those restrictions and free Israeli forces to take more aggressive action against Hezbollah targets deep in Lebanon. But there are two countervailing implications to this:
- First, Israel’s north will presumably once more come under massive Hezbollah rocket fire — and this at a time when Israeli officials are determined not to repeat what is widely seen as the mistake of mass evacuations which happened in 2023-2024.
- Second, the IAF will be busy hitting targets in Iran and have fewer planes and munitions to set aside for the Lebanese theatre.
President Trump’s statement on Monday that “a very major attack” had been postponed at the last minute this week at the request of three US Gulf allies — Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia — prompted a renewed interest in the conflicting desires of these countries. The claim itself was met with a mix of confirmation, denial, and some scepticism. Competing explanations were offered including speculation that data-sharing from Russia and China to Iran meant that much of the attack had to be reconsidered, and that this could have been a bigger reason for the delay.
Israeli analysts frequently point to the divergent messages Gulf leaders give in public and in private on the Iran issue.
- Publicly, they all favour continuing the diplomatic track and view any US or Israeli military operation as destabilising.
- Privately, they are reported to support a decisive blow the Islamist regime.
Some grumble that the status quo, with no diplomatic settlement and no open conflict, is actually the worst for them as they pay a high economic and political cost for the parallel blockades imposed on either side of the Hormuz Strait by Iran and the United States.
Among the Gulf countries are competing interests and differing geographies at stake as well. Qatar is in a uniquely difficult position geographically, with no outlet to global shipping that doesn’t go through Hormuz. Both the UAE and the Saudis have alternative sea outlets as well as pipeline infrastructure to serve them. The Emiratis have two ports on the Gulf of Oman, and the Saudis have a massive port on the country’s west coast along the Red Sea.

Looking ahead: Both Israel and the United States appeared making final preparations for a renewal of hostiles in Iran as negotiations through Pakistani mediation showed no sign of a breakthrough.

Speaking to reporters, President Trump said that Iran had “a limited period of time” to conclude an agreement with the US before he would order renewed attacks. “Two or three days. Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Maybe early next week,” he said, adding “I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit. I’m not sure yet. You’ll know very soon.”
In Israel meanwhile, the Prime Minister held an unusually long five-hour meeting with defence and security chiefs on Monday to discuss Israeli preparations for a US-led strike and it implications for Israel. Netanyahu’s testimony in his ongoing corruption trial, scheduled for today, was cancelled without any opposition from the prosecution or judges.
President Herzog also cancelled a scheduled trip to New York this week. And even the Herzliya Conference, an annual academic event billing many current and former security chiefs that was scheduled to take place has been abruptly postponed.

May 18, 2026

US indictment links Iraqi militia to attacks on Jewish sites in Europe

What’s happened: On Friday evening, the US announced that it had taken custody of and indicted Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi, a senior member of the Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah militia on suspicion of collaborating with the IRGC-Quds Force to plot and execute terrorist attacks against global Jewish communities and Iranian dissident media sites on behalf of Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (HAYI), which the US Department of Justice specifically identified as a “component of” Kataib Hezbollah.

The arrest is understood to have taken place in Turkey where Al-Saadi was transiting through from Iraq on his way to Russia, with local authorities subsequently transferring him to the FBI who extradited him to the US.
Offences Al-Saadi is alleged to have committed that were stated on a criminal complaint filed by the US Department of Justice include conspiracy to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organisation, conspiracy to provide material support for acts of terrorism, provision of material support for acts of terrorism, conspiracy to bomb a place of public use, and destruction of property by means of fire or explosive.
Kataib Hezbollah and the IRGC are mentioned in the DoJ’s criminal which alleged that Al-Saadi acted for both organisations. It is also alleged that “Since the onset of the U.S. and Israeli military conflict with Iran that began on or about February 28, 2026 (the “Iranian Military Conflict”), Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi, the defendant, has directed and urged others to attack U.S. and Israeli interests, including by killing Americans and Jews, in retaliation for the Iranian Military Conflict and to further the terrorist goals of Kataib Hezbollah and the IRGC. AL-SAADI and his associates have planned, coordinated, and claimed responsibility for at least 18 terrorist attacks in Europe (the “European Terrorist Attacks”) as well as two additional attacks in Canada, in the name of Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya, a component of Kataib Hezbollah.”
While early commentary on HAYI and its attacks against European and British Jewish communal sites acknowledged its logo’s similarity to Iranian-linked Iraqi Shia militias, the DoJ’s criminal complaint is the first time that control of HAYI has been explicitly linked to a particular group or Iranian intelligence agency.
It is also alleged that on or around 2nd April 2026, Al-Saadi attempted to contract a “Mexican cartel member who had the capability of carrying out a terrorist attack in New York and elsewhere in the United States” to target an unnamed synagogue in New York City, and ”two prominent Jewish centres in Los Angeles, California, and Scottsdale, Arizona”. Al-Saadi allegedly specified that the attacks should be recorded.
However, the cartel member in question is understood to have been an undercover FBI agent, working to provide evidence that would ultimately be used against Al-Saadi.

Context: Kataib Hezbollah is an Iraqi proxy of the IRGC-Quds Force which works “to establish an Iran-aligned government in Iraq, expel American forces from Iraq, and advance the regional and international interests of Iran in Iraq and the region”. It was designated as a foreign terrorist organisation by the US in 2009, and is not currently proscribed by the UK.

Established by the IRGC-QF in 2003, Kataib Hezbollah is one of the most influential and capable Iranian-linked Shia militias operating in Iraq.
Closely support by both the Quds Force and Lebanese Hezbollah, Kataib Hezbollah fought against British and American troops in the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, anti-Assad Syrian rebels, and Islamic State.
They have also been implicated in war crimes and sectarian atrocities against Iraq’s Sunni population, and abducted and held an Israel journalist and academic hostage from January 2023 to September 2025.
Shortly after the Popular Mobilisation Units were formed to protect Iraq against the Islamic State in 2014, Kataib Hezbollah’s then Secretary General, Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, was appointed its deputy commander underscoring his militia’s strength and importance in Iraq.
Al Muhandis was killed in January 2020 in the US drone strike which eliminated IRGC-QF commander, Major General Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad.
Kataib Hezbollah are alleged to have been the last group to kill a British soldier in combat when a missile salvo fired at Camp Taji in retaliation for Soleimani and Al Muhandis’s deaths fatally injured Lance Corporal Brodie Gillon of the Royal Army Medical Corps on 12th March 2020.
Since 7th October 2023, Kataib Hezbollah are understood to have joined the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a novel coalition of anti-US and Israel Iranian backed Shia militias. IRI subsequently launched dozens of mostly unsuccessful missile and drone attacks against Israel and US bases in the region, sometimes in what was claimed as joint operations with the Houthis.
In late-January 2024 an IRI drone strike killed three US troops stationed in Jordan. An October 2024 strike on the Golan Heights killed two IDF troops.
In August 2024, Iran International reported that Kataib Hezbollah was targeting Jewish communities in Central Asia with attempted but ultimately unsuccessful plots in Uzbekistan and Pakistan.
Attacks linked to HAYI, now identified by the US Department of Justice as a component of Kataib Hezbollah, have included multiple attacks across Europe, with six attacks on targets in London alone. This includes the Golders Green stabbings, for which the group has claimed responsibility, however, in this instance there is no evidence of a direct connection.

Looking ahead: As the trial continues, further disclosure about Kataib Hezbollah, HAYI, and broader Iranian state-sponsored terrorism targeting diaspora Jewish communities is both likely and expected.

Before Al-Saadi’s arrest and indictment, the British government were viewing and responding to HAYI as an Iranian intelligence service proxy, with policy proposals handrailing the National Security Act which criminalises assisting foreign intelligence services where such conduct is likely “prejudicial to the safety or interests of the United Kingdom”.
It is a realistic possibility that recent developments from America may influence the UK to expand its proscription application, specifically to designate Kataib Hezbollah as a terrorist group if Al-Saadi is found guilty of relevant charges.

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