Israel, the UK and the world

Updated April 30, 2026

Israel condemns London terror attack

What’s happened: President Herzog said he was “horrified by yet another violent attack on Jews in broad daylight on the streets of London.”

He added, “No Jew anywhere in the world should be a target because of their faith. In one of the great capital cities of the West, it has become dangerous to openly walk the streets as a Jew. This is an unacceptable situation. The British government and authorities must take urgent and immediate action before the next antisemitic attack occurs.”
The Prime Minsters Office released a statement noting, “Weakness gaslights one antisemitic attack after another in London. Words are not enough to confront this scourge. We demand and expect action by the British Government to protect the Jews of England and bring antisemites to justice.”
Israeli media reported that two Israeli tourists had saved at least ten other people from the terrorist. An eye witness told Kan News, “They ran after the stabber and warned everyone. There was a woman with a baby carriage with a little girl in it, whom they ushered away from the site. He was literally chasing her, so she was really, really lucky. They simply ran after him and began to yell to people to simply go, to go, to go, run away from here.”
Israel’s Ministry of Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism connected the attack to the new Iranian terrorist group Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) after they claimed responsibility for this latest attack in London. They had previously been behind several recent arson attacks targeting Jewish sites.
Minister Chikli said, “The handwriting is on the wall, written in blood. We have warned in recent weeks that this is an emerging organisation with characteristics of decentralised terrorism, and today we see the realisation of this threat in the heart of London. The British government must wake up, do much more, and ensure the security of the Jewish communities.
Israeli officials monitoring the new group say they have identified, “coordinated pattern of operation that combines online propaganda, the mobilisation of local operatives, and distribution infrastructures linked to pro-Iranian militant networks.”
The ministry calls on European countries to “increase intelligence cooperation and enforcement against terrorist infrastructures operating in the digital and physical spheres, to prepare for the possibility of further attempted attacks against Jewish communities, and to act to thwart any terrorist activity against Jewish communities.
According to the ministry, “Between 27 April 2025, and 27 April 2026, approximately 6.37 million antisemitic posts related to the UK were published on X . Simultaneously, there was an increase in violent incidents against Jews, including the assault of an Orthodox Jewish man in Slough, arsons and attempted arsons of Jewish institutions in London, the torching of “Hatzola” ambulances in Golders Green, additional physical assaults against Jews in public spaces, and a fatal attack outside a synagogue in Manchester on Yom Kippur.”

April 20, 2026

Iranian proxy targets London Jewish sites

What’s happened: Police have opened an investigation into Iranian links to a series of arson attacks on Jewish targets in London.

On Saturday night, Kenton United Synagogue was targeted in an arson attack; two teenagers were arrested.
Chief Rabbi Sir Ephraim Mirvis said the Kenton fire, which did not cause any significant damage, was the third “cowardly” attack on Jewish sites in London in less than a week.
Posting on X Mirvis said, “A sustained campaign of violence and intimidation against the Jewish community of the UK is gathering momentum…Thank God, no lives have been lost, but we cannot, and must not, wait for that to change before we understand just how dangerous this moment is for all of our society.”
On Friday night, there was another attempted arson attack on a building with links to the Jewish community, while last week, police arrested two suspects over an attempted arson attack on another synagogue in the capital.
Prime Minister Starmer said, “This is abhorrent, and it will not be tolerated. Attacks on our Jewish community are attacks on Britain.”
The Pro-Iranian group Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) or Movement of the Companions of the Right Hand of Islam, has said it is responsible, and posted a video purporting to show the attack on the Kenton synagogue on social media.

Context: Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) are a recently established Iranian proxy group. They have only been active since Israel and the US began their military campaign against Iran on 28th February 2026, and are likely part of Tehran’s retaliation strategy against Israel.

HAYI’s activities are assessed as almost certainly being part of a broader Iranian intelligence service-led psychological warfare campaign against Israel using diaspora Jewish communities as a proxy target.
HAYI represent a low-cost and low-risk asset which is almost certainly easy to operate with a degree of deniability, yet able to achieve significant cognitive effects on an adversary target audience, as well as divert responding local security agency resources.
Often described as a cut-out, they primarily exist on Telegram and are not believed to have members in a traditional sense. They are assessed as likely being controlled and directed by an Iranian intelligence service, i.e. the IRGC.
HAYI target Jewish and Zionist organisations with relatively unsophisticated arson attacks. Rather than attempting spectacular attacks to maximise casualties, HAYI tends to use or claims to have used incendiary devices or drones against these organisations, then creates videos of the attacks which are uploaded onto Iranian-linked Telegram channels.
HAYI’s claimed attacks include:
- An explosion at a synagogue in Liege, Belgium on 9th March.
- A claimed attack on an unspecified site in Greece on 11th March. No evidence of any such attack has been found.
- An arson attack on a synagogue in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, on 13th March.
- An explosion at a Jewish school in Amsterdam, the Netherlands on 14th March.
- An arson attack on ambulances belonging to the Hatzolo charity in Golders Green, London on 23rd March. HAYI claimed that the adjacent synagogue was targeted.
- An attack against the Bank of America in Paris was foiled by French authorities in on 29th March. The bank had been named as a potential target on HAYI’s Telegram channel.
- A failed arson attack at a synagogue in Finchley, London, on 15th April.
- An arson attack at Iran International’s parent company’s studios in Park Royal, London on 15th April
- A claimed radioactive drone attack against the Israeli Embassy in Kensington, London, on 16th April. The Metropolitan Police and Israeli MFA have since confirmed that the Embassy was not attacked.
- A failed arson attack at a Jewish charity (Jewish Futures) with links to Israel’s former offices in Hendon, London on 17th April.
- A failed arson attack at a synagogue in Kenton, London on 18th April.
While investigations have been led or supported by Counter Terrorism Policing, they are being treated as antisemitic hate crimes rather than terrorist attacks.
The Metropolitan Police have said that the arson attack on Jewish Futures was “not being linked to other incidents in the northwest London area over the last week or last month’s arson in Golders Green”.
This is likely due to a level of distance between HAYI and its assessed Iranian intelligence service sponsors, as well as the fact that the group has not yet been proscribed. If HAYI were to be proscribed then acts linked to them would likely be investigated by Counter Terrorism Policing by default. It could also make sharing their videos an offence under Section 12 of the Terrorism Act 2000.
HAYI’s Telegram channel was deactivated shortly after March’s Golders Green attack. It peaked with approximately 200 followers. Footage of its attacks are now distributed on other major Iranian regime-linked channels including Sabereen News and Almihwar News.
HAYI’s agents are assessed as highly likely to be recruited online with promises of payment after providing evidence of following their handlers’ instructions, primarily using encrypted messaging apps such as Signal or Telegram to communicate.
In line with other examples of Russian and Iranian-sponsored espionage and terrorist activities against the UK and Israel, recruits typically lack a particular religious or ideological affinity for those they act on behalf of, and are motivated by money.
For example, both the Wagner Group and Iranian intelligence services have contracted local or European criminals to act on their behalf in the UK, i.e. to attack and burn down Ukrainian-owned businesses or conduct surveillance on Iran International’s studios.

Looking ahead: President Trump’s two week deadline for negotiations with Iran expires on Wednesday.

Whilst significant gaps remain between the US and Iranian position, it remains unclear if they will reach an agreement or the deadline will be extended or there will be a resumption of hostilities.

February 26, 2026

Modi’s visit deepens Israel-India ties

What’s happening: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the Knesset yesterday in a speech hailing ties between his country and Israel.

“It is a privilege and an honour for me to stand before this distinguished House,” he told assembled lawmakers. “I do so as the Prime Minister of India, and also as a representative of one ancient civilisation addressing another. I bring with me the greetings of 1.4 billion Indians, and a message of friendship, respect, and partnership.”
His speech ranged over issues including counterterrorism, regional cooperation, trade, and even tourism. It was well received by MP’s in the chamber and very positively covered in Israeli media. Particularly attention was given to his forceful condemnation of the October 7 attack on Israel and his description of Israel as “a protective wall against barbarism.”
Modi also explicitly referenced the IMEC initiative, the name used for the envisioned India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, the Indian initiate for a multi-modal connection between India and Europe through allies such as Israel and the UAE that would see a dedicated network of rail, ship-to-rail, fibre optic cable connections — and even a proposed hydrogen pipeline.
It was followed by addresses from both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Opposition Leader Lapid. “We are two ancient civilisations, and we had to travel through the journey of generations and face troubles and challenges,” Netanyahu said. “We have so many shared interests. We are two democracies. You are a giant democracy, but so is Israel. Think of the things we had to do, the things we went through, and how we preserved our democracy against challenges that I think very few countries have faced.” The Prime Minister described relations between the two countries as an “iron alliance” in the face of extremist Islam.
Yesterday, also saw another state visit cementing Israel’s new regional posture. President Isaac Herzog concluded a visit to the Addis Ababa, where he met Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed after meetings with Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie and local Jewish leaders as well.
Also on Wednesday, Israel formally accepted the appointment of an ambassador from Somaliland. In December, Israel became the first state to formally recognise Somaliland as an independent state.

Context: India is Israel’s largest market for defence exports, accounting for 34 per cent of total sales since 2020. The two countries have opened negotiation for a free trade agreement recently too.

Modi’s visit put many non-security items on the agenda too, not least the possibility of a free trade agreement between the two countries, something the Indians are particularly keen to advance. The volume of trade between the two countries stood at $5 billion, with Israeli exports to India far exceeding Indian exports to Israel. This makes India Israel’s second largest trading partner in Asia (after China).
An alliance with a major Asian power, supplemented by already close ties in the Eastern Mediterranean with Greece and Cyprus, places Israel in the centre of a broad regional strategic alliance. The Israel-India axis also includes, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore and Sri Lanka, as well as the strategically placed Ethiopia and Somaliland in the Horn of Africa.
For India, closer ties with Israel are part of its portfolio diversifying national security strategy in the face of China. Closer ties, and large weapons purchases, allows them pick and choose from a variety of partners, such as Germany, France, Israel, in order not to become solely reliant on the US. Israel is located in a strategic region defined by Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in his recent speech at the Munich Conference as “West Asia.”There is also an element of solidarity and gratitude in the relations between the states and especially the two Prime Ministers. Though India has managed to solidify ties with leading Western democracies in recent years, Modi himself was largely shunned initially when he came to power in 2014, but not by Israel. And Modi’s unequivocal support for Israel’s self-defence in the wake of October 7 stands out as well in comparison to the hedged public support Israel has received from many traditional allies in Europe and elsewhere.
India also recently joined the US-led “Pax Silica,” a strategic initiative for securing supply chains for semiconductors and AI-related industries. Core members include the US, UK, Israel, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Netherlands.

Looking ahead: For all the excitement of the Modi visit to Jerusalem and the Herzog visit to Addis Ababa, Israeli attention continues to focus on the possibility of a US strike on Iran and its implications for the Israeli home front.

A third round of indirect talks between the US and Iran is underway today in Geneva, with the Iranians due to present their detailed proposal for a compromise on the nuclear programme.
Unlike in January when the US administration initially made its implicit threat that “help was on its way,” now US forces are positioned to actually carry out a threat if that is the direction the administration chooses to take.

February 12, 2026

Trump and Netanyahu talk Iran strategy

What’s happening: President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu met for 2.5 hours yesterday in what was their seventh meeting since Trump returned to office in January 2025.

After the meeting, which lasted twice as long as was planned, Trump confirmed he had “insisted” negotiations with Iran would continue, but that “nothing definitive” had been agreed up to that point.
In a social media post, Trump expressed his preference to reach a negotiated settlement with Iran, but failing that “we will just have to see what the outcome will be”, invoking the US Air Force and Navy’s air strikes on Iranian nuclear targets on 22nd June 2025.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office wrote that Netanyahu had “emphasised the security needs of the State of Israel in the context of the negotiations, and the two leaders agreed on continued coordination and the close contact between them.”
Netanyahu also met with Secretary of State Rubio and signed on as a member of the Board of Peace for Gaza and signed another agreement stating that Israel accepts the terms of the charter of Trump’s board.
While there was no press conference after the meeting, reports in Jerusalem suggest the discussions touched on various scenarios in case the US negotiations with Iran collapse, or if a strike on Iran is launched whether the US would carry it alone.
Yesterday, Iran observed the 47th anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic. It included mass parades in cities throughout Iran and displays of missiles, burning American and Israeli flags, throwing darts at Trump’s portrait and coffins with stickers showing the faces of American generals, including a picture of US CENTCOM Commander Cooper.
In his address, Iranian President Pezeshkian said that “wall of distrust” created by the West is hindering nuclear talks with the US, vowing that Iran will never surrender to excessive demands and aggression.
Also yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi told Russia Today that Iran will not negotiate on its missile programme or regional alliances but he believes the sides can strike a nuclear deal better than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed in July 2015.

Context: The Trump-Netanyahu meeting follows US-Iranian nuclear negotiations resuming in Muscat on Friday where indirect talks were mediated by the Omani government. While the first round of negotiations yielded little beyond a mutual commitment from both the US and Iran to engage in further talks, no date for them has been set or announced.

Commenting on the negotiations, President Pezeshkian reasserted that Iran would not yield to “excessive” demands, but confirmed that it was ready for “any verification” of its nuclear programme in a seem willingness to engage with IAEA inspectors.
On Tuesday, Ali Larijani, Iran’s Secretary to the Supreme National Security Council, visited Oman to meet with Muscat’s Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi who has served as the current round of talks’ main mediator. A photo released of the two men together shows al-Busaidi with a sheathed letter. Iran is known to communicate via mediators with written correspondence, and it is a realistic possibility that the letter contained a message intended for President Trump and his advisors.
While the US has entered negotiations with Iran insisting that its ballistic missile arsenal and regional proxies be addressed, Israel is concerned that these points may be conceded by Trump to achieve a nuclear deal.
Israel considers Iran’s missiles as a more imminent threat than that presented by Iran’s nuclear project. Officials in Jerusalem are also worried Israel might find itself hamstrung – as happened after the nuclear agreement that the Obama administration negotiated last decade.
While Iran has ostensibly indicated a level of willingness to engage with IAEA inspectors to ensure that its nuclear programme is only used for peaceful purposes, it has not demonstrated or indicated any flexibility on ceasing to enrich uranium on Iranian soil, nor on the issues of missiles or proxies. In fact, Tehran has gone as far as to specifically rule out negotiating on its missile stock, of which it is believed to possess 2000-3000.

Looking ahead: The Wall Street Journal has also reported that the US is currently preparing to deploy a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East.

American officials said that the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, which is currently in Asia, and the carrier USS George H. W. Bush, which is off the East Coast of the United States, are presumably the candidates to head for the Middle East. That carrier would join the USS Abraham Lincoln which arrived in the region towards the end of January.
This deployment is likely intended to increase military pressure on Iran as negotiations potentially continue.

February 11, 2026

Netanyahu arrives to Washington

What’s happening: Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in Washington for a working meeting with President Trump in what will be their seventh meeting since Trump’s second term began, barely one year ago.

Prior to his departure, Netanyahu said the focus would primarily be on Gaza and Iran. Netanyahu announced that he would “present our views regarding the principles in the negotiations to the president – the important principles – and in my view, they are important not only to Israel, but to anyone who wants peace and security in the Middle East.”
Netanyahu will also reportedly share with Trump intelligence regarding Iranian efforts to develop ballistic missiles capable of reaching Europe and the United States as well.
Trump continues to broadcast optimism at the prospect of reaching a deal with Iran that could avert an armed confrontation. “We can make a great deal with Iran,” he told an interviewer yesterday, while Netanyahu was en route. Of Netanyahu, he said, “He also wants a deal. He wants a good deal.”
The US is reportedly working on a proposal for the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza that would allow Hamas to keep the small arms it uses to maintain power in the Strip. The US proposal, details of which were leaked to the New York Times while Netanyahu was on his way to Washington, would only require Hamas to give up weapons that can be used to strike Israel, mainly rockets and launchers, in order for it be considered to have fulfilled its obligations in Phase Two of the Comprehensive Plan which ended the war last October.

Context: Leaks in the Israeli media indicate that senior Israeli officials were alarmed at the prospect of Trump securing a deal with Iran that would be far below Israel’s minimum needs.

Israeli officials believe that Trump is under enormous pressure from his allies in Turkey and Qatar to accede to a deal that leave Iran with some enrichment capabilities and that would not set back its ballistic missile programme, a cause of acute concern in Jerusalem.
Iranian ballistic missiles caused significant damage to the Israeli home front in the Twelve Day War, and Israel believes that Iran has at least 2000 of them in its current stock and is rapidly developing the capabilities to manufacture many more.
For all the Israeli concern about an unsatisfactory deal, the consensus among local analysts and officials remains that ultimately the US will attack Iran. The Iranians have not thus far signalled any willingness to compromise even on the enrichment issue, much less the other American priorities (missiles, regional proxies, and the protest crackdown).
Trump, for his part, reminisced about the Iranian miscalculation that led to Operation Midnight Hammer last June in the same interview where he spoke of the prospects for an agreement. “Last time they didn’t believe I would do it,” he said of the US airstrike on three nuclear facilities. “They overplayed their hand.”
If the scenario reported by the New York Times about Gaza were to happen, Israel would face pressure to undertake its own commitments in Phase Two, including a significant territorial withdrawal from the position it holds along the Yellow Line today to a narrow buffer zone around the old Gaza-Israel border from before the war.
The Israeli understanding of the disarmament clause of the Comprehensive Plan includes not just offensive weapons, but also small arms and the massive tunnel infrastructure in Gaza as well.
It is unclear whether Hamas accepts even the more lenient American proposal for disarmament. Absent any kind of disarmament, it is unlikely Israel will carry out any further territorial withdrawals in Gaza.
There is, in such a scenario, even the possibility that Israeli will launch a new military offensive into central Gaza to carry out a forceful disarmament of Hamas, this time unhindered by consideration for the fate of hostages.

Looking ahead: At their meeting, Netanyahu is expected to formally invite Trump to Israel for this year’s Independence Day Festivities, which are to be held on April 21-22. Trump is already due to receive the prestigious Israel Prize, normally awarded only to Israeli citizens, in a ceremony that traditionally closes out the day’s official festivities. Netanyahu may reportedly also ask Trump to light a torch on Mount Herzl in the ceremony that usually opens the official festivities.

The political calendar may also be a consideration for this. With no compromise in the offing on the ultra-orthodox conscription bill, it is increasingly likely that parliament will be dissolved and early elections called. Elections are currently scheduled for October, when discussion will likely be dominated by the third anniversary of the October 7 invasion and massacre. But an early election would put Independence Day, and Trump’s festive visit as the Prime Minister’s guest, right at the peak of campaign season.

February 5, 2026

Israel sends team to the Winter Olympics

What’s happening: The XXV Winter Olympics are due to commence tomorrow in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy. Israel will be represented by ten athletes, making it the largest delegation from any Middle Eastern country.

The Israeli athletes will be led at the opening ceremony at Milan’s San Siro Stadium by figure skater Mariia Seniuk, who was chosen as the nation’s flag bearer and will later compete in Women Single Skating.
The bulk of the team will compete in the four-men bobsleigh competition making the history as the first Israeli team ever to compete in this discipline at Olympics.
- The team of AJ Edelman, Menachem Chen, Ward Fawarseh, Omer Katz and Uri Zisman qualified after finishing one place outside the official cut-off and later received an invitation when the UK decided to send only one team rather than two.
- The Olympic appearance is a pinnacle for the bobsleigh team, which is made up of athletes from other disciplines who committed to switching to bobsleigh to fulfil their Olympic dreams, in a move reminiscent of the iconic 1990s film ‘Cool Runnings’, about Jamaican athletes on a similar journey.
- Two of the team members will compete also in the two-men bobsleigh event.
Jared Firestone will represent Israel in skeleton, while other athletes will compete in various skiing competitions. Attila Mihaly Kertesz will take part in the Cross-Country Skiing, and Noah Szollos and her older brother Barnabas Szollos will contest in alpine skiing.

Context: Middle Eastern representation at the Winter Games is often limited due to environmental conditions and different cultural traditions.

With ten members, Israel’s delegation is the largest from the region, outnumbering much larger countries such as Turkey and Iran, which are sending eight and four athletes respectively.
The only other Middle Eastern countries attending are Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates, each of which is set to be represented by two athletes.
Last week, the International Olympic Committee express its concerns for Iranian athletes amid the government’s brutal repressions against the protests. “At this moment in time, we are particularly concerned about the situation of Iranian athletes impacted by the events unfolding in their country – as we are with all athletes who face conflict and tragedies elsewhere in the world,” the IOC said.
The IOC’s concerns were voiced as news emerged that a 19-year-old wrestler, Shahab Fallahpour, was killed by security forces during demonstrations in the south-western city of Andimeshk.
This year’s Winter Olympics appearance marks the ninth attendance in a row for Israel since her Olympians first appeared at 1994 Winter Olympics in Lillehammer, Norway.
The discipline with the strongest Israeli presence is figure skating, where Israeli athletes have featured at every Winter Games since then.
Any Israeli Olympic participation carries historical resonance because of the 1972 Munich attack, in which eleven Israeli Olympians were murdered by Palestinian terrorists. Since then, Israeli teams put emphasis on remembrance and security at Olympic events, alongside the sporting focus.
Israel’s location in the heart of the Middle East means winter sports are relatively rare. However, Israelis enjoy winter sports, including skiing, on Mount Hermon, which serves as the main hub for snow and skiing, and for many Israelis it is their first exposure to winter sports.
The venue was closed following the 7 October 2023 massacre. The complex was heavily damaged in September 2024 by Hezbollah. It was partially reopened in spring 2025 but skiing and snowboarding are still not possible due to security concerns.
Ward Fawarseh, an Israeli Druze and part of the bobsleigh team is indicative of the inclusivist role sport plays in Israeli society. Similarly, for example numerous Arab and Muslim footballers have represented the Israeli national team.

February 3, 2026

US Envoy Witkoff to arrive in Israel

What’s happened: Diplomatic efforts to reach some sort of agreement between Iran and the US that might avert an impending US offensive operation in Iran kicked into high gear this week. Following high-level meetings between senior defence and intelligence officials in Washington over the weekend, US and Israeli officials are expected today to discuss respective positions on a diplomatic settlement.

To that end, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Israel today for meetings with the Prime Minister, Mossad Director, and IDF Chief of General Staff. The four are expected to discuss the Israeli position on the principal issues which the Americans will be negotiating with Iran.
The three principal issues under discussion are the Iranian nuclear programme, the Iranian ballistic missile programme, and Iran’s regional proxies. Significant gaps exist between the Israeli and American positions on the latter two issues.
Publicly, at least, the Iranians reject any negotiations on the latter two issues, rendering the difference between the Israel and American position slightly less important.
Of the upcoming negotiations between the US and Iran, President Trump said, “We have a tremendous force going there, just like we did in Venezuela, even bigger, and they’ll be there soon. And I’d like to see a deal negotiated. I don’t know that that’s going to happen. But right now we’re talking to them, we’re talking to Iran, and if we can work something out that would be great, and if we can’t probably bad things will happen.”

Context: Israel’s approach to the prospect of a negotiated settlement between Iran and the US is best characterised as multilayered scepticism. Scepticism regarding the issues mooted by a deal, scepticism about Witkoff’s motives and capabilities, scepticism about the viability of a deal altogether even if it is a good one.

In public at least, Israel has several red lines. On the nuclear programme, Israel insists on zero enrichment and the removal of uranium from Iranian territory. On missiles, Israel wants to see a reduction in stocks, range, and production capacity. On regional issues, Israel wants to reach an informal understanding that Iran is no longer exporting its revolution through proxy armies in the region.
Witkoff is perceived in Israel as an opponent of any US military strike in Iran, and Israeli officials have leaked to local media concerns that Witkoff might be “duped” by Iranian negotiators and rush into a deal that appears like an achievement while leaving Iran in a position to threaten Israel and the region.
Even if a deal is reached, Israelis are sceptical that its implementation could be monitored and enforced in the long term. A ‘good’ deal throws the Islamist regime a lifeline at its weakest moment, and a ‘bad’ gives it the opportunity to regroup and rearm. Any deal, it is assumed, would lead to sanctions relief, eliminating the one lever that actually succeeded in bringing Iranians out into the streets against the Islamic regime.
Israel is in a sense reassured, that Iran hawks in both Congress and the administration take Israel’s position on the nuclear programme, especially, quite seriously. For this reason, it is understood in Jerusalem, the Americans need a level of coordination that clearly delimits things Israel wants, things Israel can tolerate while publicly opposing, and things that Israel will actively oppose.
The Israeli assessment remains that the US is more likely than not to mount a military offensive, given the enormous movement of military assets to the region. However Trump currently wants to first exhaust the diplomatic route.
The pressure on Iran is mounting, as the UK Home Office confirmed that it would begin the process of proscribing the IRGC in the UK. This announcement immediately followed the EU confirming that it would take the same steps after France dropped its long-standing opposition to banning the group.
The EU’s decision to designate the IRGC as a terrorist group is understood to have been in response to its participation and leading role in violently suppressing mass anti-government protests across Iran which are alleged to have killed tens of thousands.
While the Home Office have reportedly supported proscription under both this and prior governments, the FCDO allegedly opposed and blocked it on the grounds that doing so risked prejudicing diplomatic relations with Iran which they feared could be broken off.

Looking ahead: Witkoff’s meetings in Israel today are only a prelude to the main diplomatic event in Turkey this Friday, where he will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Jared Kushner will attend the talks in Turkey (he is not joining in Witkoff in Israel today), as will representatives from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. There were unconfirmed reports that officials from UAE, Oman, and Pakistan might also be invited.

In the build-up to the talks, Iranian officials have spoken to various Western media outlets about concessions Iran might entertain on the nuclear programme, including shutting it down, joining a regional consortium to produce nuclear power, and shipping its uranium to Russia.

January 21, 2026

Netanyahu to join Trump’s Board of Peace

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu announced this morning that Israel would accede to President Trump’s invitation to join his Board of Peace.

Argentina, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam have also said they would join. It was not clear from the Prime Minister’s announcement if Israel would be paying $1 billion for a permanent membership.
President Trump told reporters yesterday that “we think we know” where the body of the last Israeli hostage in Gaza is. Referring to Ran Gvili, who was killed in the October 7 attacks and whose body has been held ever since in Gaza, the President said, “They have one left that we think we know where it is, amazing, it looked like we weren’t going to get anywhere near that, now they’ve gotten that almost.”
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will meet President Trump today on the sidelines of the Davos. The two are due to discuss Phase 2 of the Gaza ceasefire and to coordinate their moves before a bruited American ultimatum on Hamas disarmament and the possible entry of Egyptian-trained Palestinian forces into Gaza.
In Jerusalem, the Israel Lands Authority took possession of a large UNRWA facility in Jerusalem and began demolishing parts of it. This was in accordance with the new law from last year which bans all UNRWA activity inside Israel and severely limits any official interaction between Israel and UNRWA in territories Israel controls.
UNRWA vacated the facility six months ago, and the ILA proceeded with the demolition yesterday to stop other illegal activities taking place at the site as well as to advance plans for its redevelopment.

Context: According to various media sources, President Trump is expected to deliver an ultimatum to Hamas regarding the terrorist organisation’s disarmament in the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire. Reports differ, however, on the content of the ultimatum, its timeline, its proposed methods of decommissioning, and the threats which back it up.

A Palestinian police force presently being trained in Egypt is reportedly ready to carry out the disarmament, should Hamas accept the conditions of Trump’s ultimatum. This force reports directly to the Palestinian committee of technocrats whose appointments were announced last week. They would be tasked not only with collecting rockets and IEDs, but also the rifles and small arms with which Hamas enforces its domestic rule.
Notably, this would mean that disarmament is an internal Palestinian affair, and not an endeavour achieved by the International Stabilisation Force, which has not yet come into being and does not have pledged commitments from enough countries to be viable.
The Egyptian-trained force would, if Hamas agrees to Trump’s ultimatum, hope to enter Gaza sometime in February or March and seek to complete its task rapidly. Despite whatever enthusiasm both Egyptian and US officials express (in anonymous leaks) regarding both the ultimatum and the police force, both Israeli and Palestinian officials remain sceptical about the entire plan.
Palestinian officials are concerned that an under-equipped police force seen, accurately or not, as aligned with the PA could quickly find itself a target of superior Hamas weapons (as happened in 2007). Israeli officials share that concern while also opposing any role for the PA in Gaza.
In the meantime, few in Israel believe Hamas will agree to Trump’s ultimatum anyway. As such, the IDF continues to prepare itself for a possible military offensive in February or March to disarm Hamas by force.
An Israeli operation following a Hamas refusal to carry out the conditions of the ceasefire, it is believed, would have a measure of international legitimacy. And a ground offensive into central Gaza unencumbered by the presence of Israeli hostages and the implied threat to their wellbeing, it is further believed, could be more effective than anything tried in two years of warfare following the October 7 attack.

Looking ahead: President Trump is scheduled to make a major prime time address tonight. In the background are at least four major international crises: the Gaza ceasefire and the formation of the new Board of Peace, the violent crackdown on anti-regime protesters in Iran and the possibility of US military action there, and the US threats on Greenland and the attendant tensions in the NATO alliance and the transition in Venezuela following the US capture of Nicolas Maduro.

With international attention focused on Venezuela and Greenland, US forces continue to move to the Persian Gulf region.
The eruption of violence in Iran in late December caught the US Navy without a carrier group in the Gulf. As of yesterday, the USS Lincoln Carrier Strike Group transited through the Strait of Malacca and into the Bay of Bengal. It is expected to continue west to the Persian Gulf.
Circumventing the globe in the opposite direction were the F-15Es which had served to intercept drone attacks from Iran in previous rounds of fighting in 2024 and 2025. These reportedly left bases in the UK for bases in Jordan yesterday, accompanied by KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refuelling jets.

January 20, 2026

Israel–US tensions surface over Gaza’s future

What’s happened: Amidst growing differences between the Israeli government and the Trump administration, the Israeli government decided yesterday to delay opening of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt.

The opening is one of many measures that are supposed to happen in line with Phase two of the ceasefire agreement, which the US administration announced was underway earlier this week.
Israel opposed moving on to phase 2 before the body of the last Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili, was recovered from Gaza, and Israeli officials were particularly unnerved by the inclusion of Qatar and Turkey not just in Trump’s Board of Peace, but also in the Gaza Executive Board which is designated for a direct role in supervising postwar Gaza reconstruction and governance.
The Gaze Executive Board is the body which oversees the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), the so-called “technocratic” committee of Palestinians responsible for transitional governance of Gaza.
Outside of Israel, growing attention has been focused on the charter of President Trump’s Board of Peace.
- The establishment of the Board was explicitly set out in the Comprehensive Plan which brought the Gaza war to a ceasefire in October 2025 and was endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution. Over the past week, the US administration has been sending formal invitations to countries to join the Board together with a detailed charter. The charter indicates a much broader role for the Board than just overseeing transitional governance and reconstruction in Gaza.
- The charter grants broad personal powers to President Trump, with the language unclear if these powers will last longer than his term in office. It offers countries a “permanent membership” if they contribute $1 billion dollars at the outset, though a three-year membership is free. Its mandate includes securing “enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict,” not just Gaza.
- Among US allies, the only vocal scepticism about the Board registered so far has been from France, which has not definitively said whether it will join, and Israel, which is angered about the inclusion of Qatar and Turkey on the subcommittee explicitly tasked with overseeing governance in Gaza, the aforementioned Gaza Executive Board.

Context: The role of Qatar and Turkey in the future governance of Gaza continues to be a cause of concern for Israeli security officials, and a point of contention in domestic Israeli politics.

In Knesset, opposition leader Yair Lapid blasted Netanyahu for either failing to block Qatar and Turkey from gaining a foothold in Gaza. “Hamas’s hosts in Istanbul and Doha, Hamas’s ideological partners, have been invited to run Gaza,” he said from the rostrum. Turning to the Prime Minister, he said that Netanyahu either “agreed behind our backs that Turkey, Qatar, and the Palestinian Authority would be in Gaza,” or that he didn’t know that the US had included them, which means “Trump doesn’t give a damn about you.”
Netanyahu acknowledged that the US and Israel had “a certain argument” on the issue of Qatari and Turkish involvement, but emphasised that forces from the two countries would not set foot in the Strip.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, not currently a member of Knesset, took to social media to criticise the Prime Minister on the matter. “Erdogan and the despicable Qatar, the greatest haters of Israel, the most enthusiastic aides of Hamas, are being ushered in through the front door to run Gaza,” he tweeted. “What a terrible diplomatic failure by the Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir-Smotrich government. Soon we will fix this, too.”
Disagreement between the US and Israel is another case of most recent ruptures between the Trump administration and US allies. These rifts are becoming interlinked, as Donald Trump clashed with French President Emmanuel Macron over the potential inclusion of Vladimir Putin in the Board of Peace.
The question of the Rafah Crossing has long been a bone of contention internationally and internally in Israel.
- When Israel withdrew all its soldiers and civilians from the Gaza Strip in 2005, it signed a multilateral agreement called the Movement and Access Accord which created a complicated mechanism for operating the crossing between Gaza and Egypt by Palestinian and European forces with a remote supervisory role by Israel.
- The arrangement was abandoned when Hamas took over the Strip following its coup in 2007. Egypt shut the crossing down completely in May 2024 when Israeli forces retook the Philadelphi Corridor, and the ceasefire which ended the war a year and a half later called for the crossing to be reopened, implicitly under an arrangement that would resemble the 2005 Accord.
- Initially, Israel announced it would reopen the crossing for one-way traffic — from Gaza to Egypt — but eventually under international pressure and despite strong opposition in the Cabinet, it agreed to open it for two-way traffic in Phase 2 of the ceasefire. The decision yesterday to delay the opening further was interpreted by all sides as an expression of Israeli frustration at both the incomplete return of deceased hostages and, most especially, at the last minute inclusion of both Qatar and Turkey in the Gaza Executive Board.

Looking ahead: Lurking behind all the disagreements about the Board of Peace, the Gaza Executive Board, the NCAG, and the ISF is the question of Hamas disarmament. No credible plan for the actually disarming the terrorist organisation has been put forward by any of the various committees and boards.

Netanyahu himself, speaking at yesterday’s stormy Knesset debate, alluded to the possibility that the IDF would be forced to carry out the task itself should international efforts to disarm Hamas fail to yield results. “Phase 2 says something simple: Hamas will be disarmed, and Gaza will be demilitarised,” he said in his speech before Parliament, before adding that this “will be achieved either the easy way or the hard way.”
Reports in the Israeli media based on leaks from the IDF suggest that such an operation would require four or five reserve divisions to be mobilised. The establishment of internationally backed governing and oversight bodies in the wake of the ceasefire would no doubt complicate such a ground offensive, especially in comparison to previous IDF incursions into Gaza over the past two years of war. But without concern over the fate of living hostages binding Israel’s hands, the IDF would be much freer to act than it was in previous rounds of fighting.

January 19, 2026

US announces makeup of new governance for Gaza

What’s happened: Over the weekend, the Trump administration announced the composition of the Gaza Board of Peace and an executive committee that will liaise between the board and the newly-formed government of Palestinian technocrats.

The Board of Peace will be led by President Trump and include Secretary of State Rubio, US envoys Witkoff and Kushner, Former Prime Minister Blair, Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan, World Bank President Ajay Banga and deputy US National Security Adviser Robert Gabriel.
The executive committee members will include the envoys Kushner and Witkoff, Blair, Rowan, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Qatari diplomat Ali Thawadi, Egyptian General Intelligence Director Hassan Rashad, UAE Minister of International Cooperation Reem Al-Hashimy, former UN humanitarian coordinator Sigrid Kaag, Israeli-Cypriot businessman Yakir Gabay and former UN envoy to the Mideast Nickolay Mladenov.
Dr. Ali Shaath will be the Chairman of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), the main Palestinian technocratic body on the ground. Committee members will include a range of Palestinian technocrats, some of whom were previously affiliated to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement noting that the US announcement “was not coordinated with Israel and runs contrary to its policy.” Israeli officials are concerned the board includes senior representatives from Turkey and Qatar.
Leader of the Opposition Lapid said, “For the past year I’ve been telling the government: ‘If you don’t advance the Egyptian solution with the United States and the world, you’ll end up with Turkey and Qatar in Gaza.’ Last night, the composition of the ‘Board of Peace’ was announced—Turkey is in, Qatar is in and, according to the IDF, Hamas has 30,000 armed men in Gaza. That is a complete political failure of the Netanyahu government after the courage and endless sacrifice made by IDF soldiers and commanders.”
Former Prime Minister Bennett commented, “Two years after it massacred us, Hamas is still alive, in control and growing stronger. The entry into Gaza by Qatar and Turkey, Hamas’s supporters and financiers, gives Hamas a reward for the October 7 massacre, endangers Israeli citizens’ security and sends a grave message to the peoples in the region that for massacring Jews one receives political and military achievements.”
Following the signing of committee’s mission statement Shaath said that the NCAG will act to entrench security, to repair vital infrastructure and to advance stability in the Gaza Strip. Shaath said that the top priority at present was to reopen the Rafah crossing in both directions.
Speaking at a rally on Saturday night, the parents of the last deceased hostage held in Gaza, Ran Gvili said, “While we are here, still waiting for Rani’s return, a Board of Peace for the second stage is being established. How can anyone think about a second stage, and what peace are they talking about at all? Peace with people who have refused to return our son, despite having consented to that in an agreement?”

Context: Israel has consistently stated that there can be no practical implementation of Phase 2 before the body of the final fallen hostage is returned and Hamas is disarmed.

The decision to include Turkish and Qatari representatives on the Gaza executive committee has caused alarm across the political spectrum is Israel, though the decision is not a surprise. Those countries were key actors in persuading Hamas to agree to the ceasefire in October and are considered key allies by Trump. The major concern is that Hamas will receive a renewed influx of funds allowing it to pay fighters and consolidate its control.
In parallel to the announcements, the US led Civil-Military Coordination Centre (CMCC) in Kiryat Gat continues to coordinate aid into Gaza and to develop plans to build new residential neighbourhoods for Gazans, (initially on the Israeli side of the yellow line).
Currently, around 800 trucks of supplies enter into Gaza every day, but once they pass the yellow line, Hamas is able to place a tax on every delivery which it then uses to replenish their accounts and rehabilitate their practical control over the Strip.
Israel is further concerned that Hamas attacks on its troops along the yellow line have increased.
The announcement over the weekend is largely driven by Trump’s desire to showcase progress, even if concrete changes on the ground remain mostly symbolic for now.
Despite formal denials the NCAG appears closely connected to the PA, as is reflected in its leadership, composition, and Ramallah’s clear endorsement.
Hamas welcomes the committee because it poses no real threat to its power, serving as civilian cover while Hamas retains security control. This worryingly resembles the classic model of Hezbollah, operating as the main military force under a weak civilian leadership.
Although thousands of Hamas fighters were killed during the two year war, the latest assessment suggests every fighter killed has been replaced, (albeit younger, less experienced, less skilled) and that the combined forces of Hamas and Islamic Jihad once more stands at around 40,000.
The IDF significantly degraded their rocket arsenal, with about 90% of it destroyed, but military officials believe that hundreds of rockets still remain in the Strip, mostly short-range.

Looking ahead: In an effort to avoid a clash with the US administration Prime Minister Netanyahu has instructed Foreign Minister Saar to liaise with US Secretary of State Rubio.

According to Israel Hayom, Trump will use the platform of the World Economic Forum in Davos this week to condemn Hamas for its delay in handing over its weapons.
After Davos, all of the countries involved, including Turkey and Qatar, will present Hamas with a categorical demand to disarm. If Hamas rejects the demand to hand over its weapons, President Trump could give a green light to an Israeli military operation, as he said publicly in their last meeting with Netanyahu.
It’s understood that Donald Trump has invited other world leaders to join the Board of Peace, including Prime Minister Starmer.

Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Hezbollah and Lebanon

Iran and their Proxies