What’s happened: US envoy Steve Witkoff appeared poised to unveil a revised ceasefire proposal amid optimistic leaks, mainly from American sources, of closing gaps between the positions of Hamas and Israel. 

• According to reports, the new ceasefire would include:
  • An immediate release of nine or ten living hostages, plus the remains of 18 deceased hostages. Hamas holds 58 Israeli hostages, of whom twenty are presumed to be alive.
  • In return Israel is to release 125 heavyweight terrorists with blood on their hands, all of whom are life-term prisoners. Israel will also release 1,111 terrorists from the Gaza Strip who were arrested after October 7, 2023. Israel will also be required to release the remains of 180 dead terrorists.
  • The proposed ceasefire would last 60 days, during which negotiations would continue for a permanent end to the war and a release of all remaining hostages. Hamas is insisting on stronger American guarantees that the ceasefire would lead to a permanent end to fighting.
  • The US appear confident they have found the wording to reassure Israel that if no agreements are reached by the end of that period, Israel will be able either to renew the fighting or to engage in further negotiations in exchange for the release of additional hostages.
• President Trump publicly confirmed that he had asked Prime Minister Netanyahu not to attack Iran while nuclear negotiations were ongoing. The public statement followed days of speculation about a reportedly tense phone call between the two leaders and American assessments that Israel might be preparing an attack.
• The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation continued expanding its aid distribution amid an astonishing media campaign waged against it by Hamas, the UN, and sundry international NGO’s. Its operations were once more suspended briefly due to crowds and disorder, with no injuries reported.
• According to Israeli officials another 121 trucks belonging to the UN entered into Gaza on Wednesday, delivering flour and other food.  
• Elsewhere in the Gaza Strip, a UN food warehouse operated by the UN World Food Program was broken into and looted. At least four people were reported killed; two were trampled and two were killed by gunfire. Media reports were unclear whether the shooting was from Hamas gunmen or criminal gangs. In a statement, the World Food Program refrained from identifying the source of gunfire, while describing the supplies in the warehouse as “pre-positioned for distribution.” In recent weeks, the WFP had consistently reported that it had run out of food stocks entirely due to Israel’s blockade. 

Context: The Trump administration’s public pronouncements and diplomatic maneuvers on both Iran and Gaza in the past week have repeatedly and pointedly indicated small but significant differences of opinion and priorities that exist in Jerusalem and Washington. 

• Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Ronen Bergman described it as a “gradually increasing friction with the United States over a series of issues that pertain to the hostages and the war in Gaza.” The administration has been keen to emphasise these differences, either as a form of pressure on Netanyahu or as a negotiating tactic — or both.
• In Israel, concern is high that the administration might agree to a deal with Iran that leaves Israel exposed to long-term Iranian nuclear ambitions while removing any threat of American action. Particularly concerning for Israel is the prospect of an interim deal being announced that is vague on details giving Iran instant sanctions relief while negotiations on a detailed accord drag on inconclusively.
• The issue of the hostages continues to roil internal Israeli politics, with hostage families expressing frustration at the prospect of another partial deal, as opposed to an agreement that might liberate all the remaining hostages. The twenty living hostages are widely assumed to all be in poor physical and mental state after 600 days in captivity in tunnels, without adequate light, food, water, and medical care.
• At a rally yesterday in Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Ohad Ben Ami, who survived Hamas captivity and was released in an earlier ceasefire, said, “Of the 58 hostages still held in Gaza, five of them were with me – in the same tunnel, through the same cold nights, living with the same daily terror. All of them are still alive. In the recent videos that were released, I saw them. Eyes dimmed, gaunt, exhausted. The fear I saw in their eyes haunts me. Their physical condition is terrible. Their mental state is even worse. I’m deeply worried about them. I know exactly what they’re going through – I was there. The six of us were imprisoned together in a tunnel 30 meters underground, in inhuman conditions: no light, no air, no medical care, not a single moment of privacy or true quiet. We survived on scraps – both physically and emotionally.”
• Another former hostage Omer Shem Tov was interviewed on CNN, where he described being intentionally starved by Hamas during his 505 days in captivity, forced to survive in the tunnels on merely a biscuit and a few sips of salty water each day, whilst his captors were well fed. He said, “I remember walking by another room in the tunnel, seeing a big amount of food…huge amounts. So, I was being starved. There’s no question about it.”

Looking ahead: A third Humanitarian Aid distribution centre will be opened today in the Gaza Strip. The new distribution centre will be established in central Gaza, south of the Netzarim Corridor. The first two centres established are both further south.  

• Like the others, the new centre will also be capable of providing food to 300,000 Palestinian residents of Gaza every week. It is primarily supposed to serve Palestinian residents of the central Gaza Strip. 
• Senior officials in the ultra-Orthodox Shas party are due to meet next week to decide whether to remain in the coalition. Both Shas and the other major ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, have been boycotting votes in parliament in order to pressure the government to proceed with legislations enshrining draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox public into law. Such legislation is deeply unpopular with the Israeli public at large, including with large parts of the right-wing coalition now in power. On the other hand, if the ultra-Orthodox parties follow through with their threats, the result would be an early election.

What’s happened: The British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary have made highly critical statements of the Israeli government’s policy in Gaza.

• Speaking in parliament, Keir Starmer said, “We’re horrified by the escalation from Israel. We repeat our demand for a ceasefire as the only way to free the hostages.”
• David Lammy meanwhile accused the current Israeli government of “isolating Israel from its friends and partners around the world” in what is arguably the UK’s strongest recent condemnation of Israel.
• Lammy specifically referenced and condemned recent comments from Israel’s Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who “even spoke of Israeli forces cleansing Gaza, destroying what’s left of residents, Palestinians being relocated, he said, to third countries.” 
• Lammy branded these comments as dangerous extremism, adding that he condemned it “in the strongest possible terms”.
• The British government also announced that it was suspending free trade negotiations with Israel, effective immediately, and that planned cooperation under the 2020 Bilateral Roadmap would be reviewed.
• Writing on X (formerly known as Twitter), Minister for the Middle East and North Africa Falconer said he had summoned Israel’s Ambassador and “made clear the UK’s opposition to expanded military operations in Gaza and rising violence & intimidation by Israeli settlers against Palestinian communities in the West Bank. The UK will not stand by as this happens.”
• The Israeli Foreign Ministry accused the British government of not advancing the free trade negotiations at all event prior to the announcement and suggested that “If, due to anti-Israel obsession and domestic political considerations, the British government is willing to harm the British economy — that is its own prerogative.” 
• The statement also argued that the sanctions were unjustified and regrettable, especially as they came days after an Israeli woman was murdered in a recent West Bank shooting attack.
• Conservative Shadow Trade Minister Greg Smith condemned the UK government’s decision, telling The Telegraph: “It is an absurdity that the UK Government have taken a new stance which has won the support of Hamas – an organisation we proscribe as a terrorist organisation – and is the aggressor in the war with Israel.”
• Several EU Foreign Ministers, including those of France and the Netherlands, have demanded a review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, the treaty governing Israel-EU relations which has been in effect for 25 years. Yesterday EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said that EU has decided to review the EU-Israel Association Agreement. 
• A total of 93 trucks entered the Gaza Strip yesterday through the Kerem Shalom crossing. They transported flour, baby food, medical equipment and medicine.

Context: Starmer and Lammy’s comments followed Monday’s joint statement by the British, French, and Canadian governments opposing Israel’s renewed military operations in Gaza.

• That statement called for increased aid provision, and condemned settlement in expansion in the West Bank. It also ominously stated that “will not hesitate to take further action, including targeted sanctions.” It also referred to the current Israeli government’s actions as “egregious”, and claimed that its “escalation is wholly disproportionate.”
• Hamas praised the joint statement, saying that it reflected a “principled stance” and was a “significant step in the right direction”.
• Media reports throughout the day yesterday were dominated by the claim by UN humanitarian chief on BBC Radio 4 that “there are 14,000 babies that will die in the next 48 hours unless we can reach them.” This headline featured prominently next to media reports of the joint UK-France-Canada announcement as well as Lammy and Starmer’s comments. 
• This claim about 14,000 babies facing imminent death appeared to originate in an IPC report estimating that by March 2026 14,000 children under the age of 6 could be facing malnutrition. It is worth noting that even the IPC estimates of imminent famine in Gaza, which Fletcher’s claim grossly exaggerated, have been consistently wrong over the entire year and a half of the current war
• It is notable that while the joint statement calls on Hamas “to release immediately the remaining hostages they have so cruelly held since 7 October 2023,” Starmer’s statement in parliament regarding the hostages employed an entirely different formulation: “We’re horrified by the escalation from Israel. We repeat our demand for a ceasefire as the only way to free the hostages.”
• The joint statement criticised Israel directly and repeatedly. It singled out for praise (in the same sentence) the United States, Egypt, and Qatar. It described ending Hamas control of Gaza as a long-term goal, but did not offer any method of achieving that goal. 
• Any change in the EU-Israel Association Agreement is unlikely due to an anticipated veto by Hungary and the Czech Republic.
• With US backing, Israel has endeavoured to establish the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a mechanism for the distribution of Humanitarian Aid to Gazan civilians that would ensure that aid does not fall into Hamas hands. The Foundation is directed by the American social entrepreneur with a record of humanitarian work in conflict zones named Jake Wood.
• Major international aid agencies have largely refused to work with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, insisting that aid can only come through the same channels that were used before, and which have been repeatedly commandeered and exploited by Hamas.
• The emergency aid which Israel let through this week was not directed by the Foundation.
• The sanctions announced targeted three settler leaders, two outposts in the West Bank, and two organisations the FCDO alleges supports violence against local Palestinian communities. One of these settler leaders is Daniella Weiss, who the British government says “has been involved in threatening, perpetrating, promoting and supporting, acts of aggression and violence against Palestinian individuals”. Weiss is often known as the “Godmother” of the settler movement, and has been a leading figure in post-October 7 attempts by an extreme fringe of Israelis to resettle the Gaza Strip.

Looking Ahead: Negotiations are still ongoing in Qatar for a ceasefire that would include a release of hostages.

• Despite some optimism over the past week, reports from the past two days indicate an impasse, and Israel has recalled its high-level negotiators, leaving behind more junior representatives with a narrower mandate to negotiate.
• Talks had earlier focused on versions of the Witkoff initiative, which would have seen the release of up to ten of the twenty living hostages and a ceasefire of roughly two months.
• There were also reports of newer initiatives involving a full hostage release and end to the war, but the gaps between the sides on the conditions for an end to the war — on issues like reconstruction, Hamas disarmament, and future governance of the Strip — are even larger.

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu has responded to a joint statement from the UK, France, and Canada condemning Israeli conduct in the West Bank and Gaza Strip which also threatened sanctions in the event of settlement growth.

• In a statement released last night, Netanyahu said “By asking Israel to end a defensive war for our survival before Hamas terrorists on our border are destroyed and by demanding a Palestinian state, the leaders in London, Ottawa and Paris are offering a huge prize for the genocidal attack on Israel on October 7 while inviting more such atrocities.”
• Netanyahu also reiterated that “Israel accepts President Trump’s vision and urges all European leaders to do the same”, and that in the event of Hamas releasing the remaining hostages, its leaders being exiled, and Gaza demilitarising, the war could “end tomorrow.”
• The joint British, French, and Canadian statement opened by condemning Israel’s expansion of operations in the Gaza Strip, branded the recently announced aid provision expansion as “wholly inadequate”, and threatened “further concrete actions in response” unless Israel ceased its military options and lifted restrictions on Humanitarian Aid.
• West Bank settlement expansion was specifically highlighted as another area of concern, which the statement said “undermined…the security of both Israelis and Palestinians” while threatening “targeted sanctions.”
• The statement also condemned Hamas’s  October 7 attacks against Israel while branding its response as “wholly disproportionate” and “egregious”, reiterating support for an immediate ceasefire and eventual implementation of a two-state solution, and a commitment to “work with the Palestinian Authority, regional partners, Israel and the United States to finalise consensus on arrangements for Gaza’s future, building on the Arab plan.”

Context: The UK, France, and Canada’s statement almost immediately followed Israel increasing its aid provision based on the US-led plan. 

• Yesterday, the first aid entered the Gaza Strip in eleven weeks, amounting to a total of five UN food lorries. This follows Prime Minister Netanyahu agreeing to allow a “minimal” amount of food into the coastal enclave to prevent famine.
• While the UN’s humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, welcomed this development, he also described it as a “drop in the ocean” and said that “significantly more aid must be allowed into Gaza, starting tomorrow morning”.
• Israel emphasises that it monitors the level of essential goods in Gaza daily via COGAT and that aid is to supplied based on actual need.
• Previously, during a 42-day ceasefire starting in January, Israel facilitated 25,000 aid trucks into Gaza — creating a surplus of food and goods.
• There is renewed concern in Israel that while the aid delivery mechanism remains unchanged the trucks will be susceptible to being taken over by Hamas.     
• Concurrently, Israeli negotiators were also instructed to remain in Doha despite the apparent lack of a breakthrough which could lead to a ceasefire and the release of the remaining 58 hostages, held in brutal captivity now for 592 days.   
• Adam Boehler, the US special envoy for hostage response, also said that “we’re closer than we ever were” to reaching an agreement without providing further details.
• Some in Israel have criticised the government’s current policy. In Yediot Ahronot, Nadav Eyal writes that “Had the government presented a realistic plan for Gaza’s future, and had it genuinely engaged in dialogue with Canada, France, Britain…. Israel might have been able to exert the necessary pressure on Hamas.” He adds that such pressure “without doubt, is very justified. For real security to prevail, Hamas has to truly give up power and disarm, to make way for an alternative administration. But for Israel to have a functioning society that is able to fight, we have to recover our hostages from the burning agonies of the fire in Gaza.”
• The IDF is continuing its operations across the Gaza Strip as part of Operation Gideon’s Chariots, striking over 160 targets and dismantling a tunnel previously used to attack Israeli troops in the southern Gaza Strip.
• There are also unconfirmed reports that an undercover Israeli special forces unit infiltrated Khan Yunis and eliminated Ahmad Sarhan, a senior member of the Popular Resistance Committees. The PRC is a small but aggressive group which is best known for abducting Gilad Shalit in 2006. The Israeli government has not commented on this story, but the PRC have announced Sarhan’s death, referring to him as a “special operations officer.”
• The IDF has also confirmed that it conducted an air strike in Lebanon yesterday, targeting and killing a member of Hezbollah’s special operations Radwan Force in the Houla area.

Looking ahead: It is expected that US and Israel supported aid distribution hubs operated by US security contractors will open in the southern Gaza Strip next week. This will be a new mechanism, aimed at delivering aid more efficiently to the civilian population and circumventing Hamas. However, the UN and other  agencies have indicated they will not co-operate with these plans, arguing they contradict fundamental humanitarian principles of impartiality, independence, and neutrality.

• The Houthis have claimed that they will now enforce a naval blockade on the northern Israeli port city of Haifa, and that ships heading there would be targeted. 
• The UN has also set a date for a French and Saudi sponsored conference on the two state solution which is due to take place from June 17 to 20 at the UN headquarters in New York. Its intentions is to set the conditions for more states to formally recognise Palestine.