What’s happened: On Wednesday the Knesset voted to elect Michael Rabello as the next State Comptroller in a controversial vote likely to be challenged in the Supreme Court.

• The position of State Comptroller, sometimes also translated into English as State Ombudsman, is formally independent of all party and political affiliation. The election of Michael Rabello, an attorney who has represented Netanyahu and his family over years, is seen by many of the Government’s critics and even some of its supporters as a significant breach with decades of existing practice.
• The election of the Comptroller, like the election of State President, is formally done by a secret ballot of members of Knesset. If no candidate secures a 61 vote majority in the first ballot, the vote goes to a runoff where only a simple majority is needed. In yesterday’s first-round vote, Rabello had 57 votes and retired Supreme Court Justice Yosef Elron had 60 votes.
• According to the rules, this meant a second round of voting. It was at this point that coalition MK’s were seen photographing themselves on their personal telephones with their ballot papers in hand, as if to document whom they were voting for.
• It was speculated that this was done under pressure from party leaders, and the vote was immediately suspended, with the Knesset’s legal counsel emphasising that photographing ballot papers was illegal as it subverted the purpose of the secret ballot.
• Nonetheless, when the vote was renewed, coalition MK’s were still seen photographing their own votes, and the final result was 61 for Rabello and only 57 for Elron.
• Israeli media outlets, to say nothing of opposition politicians, were scathing in their critique of the process. Both the Yesh Atid party and the independent NGO, The Movement for Quality Government, have already filed briefs with the Supreme Court asking it to invalidate yesterday’s vote.
• The chairman of Yesh Atid, former Prime Minister Yair Lapid called the election “tainted.” Naftali Bennett, also a former Prime Minister and leader of the combined list ‘Together’, created by merging his new party with Yesh Atid, described the process as “not a free election, but rather an extortion.”

Election manoeuvring: Israel’s Parliament voted today in a preliminary reading in favour of a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset. Motion was supported by 110 MKs from both government and opposition opening formally the path to early general election.

• ⁠The bill will now return to the House Committee, where the government can determine the pace, and then returns to the plenum for a vote on its first reading.
• ⁠It will then be returned to the committee, and only then will it be introduced to the plenum for a vote on its second and third reading, at which point an election date will be set.
• ⁠To appease his ultra-Orthodox allies, Prime Minister Netanyahu has revived legislation intended to resolve the impasse over ultra-Orthodox conscription. This is also set to be debated today.
• ⁠Israel will therefore see three crucial debates and votes today, which will help set the stage for the upcoming Knesset election. The election is due to be held this autumn. Originally scheduled for 27 October, it is now likely to be brought forward to avoid a clash with the anniversary of the October 7 massacre.

What’s happened: A bill to dissolve the Knesset has been introduced, with the backing of all the coalition parties. Formally, dissolving parliament leads to early elections.

• The bill was presented by Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz from the Likud and is intended to allow the Likud to control the process of dissolving the Knesset and the election timetable.
• The move came after Degel HaTorah announced it would push its own bill to dissolve the Knesset.
• The Likud move follows the impasse over legislation regarding conscription for ultra-Orthodox men. A statement by the Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox Degel HaTorah faction, one part of the United Torah Judaism party, said that “We are sick and tired of futile actions designed to buy time and distract attention, only for it to be claimed in the end that there is no majority. We have notified the coalition management that we oppose the amendment to the Continuity Law and, per [rabbinic instructions], we are acting to dissolve the Knesset as soon as possible.”

Context: The Likud move is essentially designed to control the narrative over who decides when the Knesset is dissolved.

• The earliest practical date for “snap” elections is September of this year. With elections scheduled for October 27 2026 anyway, the impact of “early” elections would be to shorten the current Knesset’s four-year term by approximately one month.
• Negotiations over a conscription bill have been intensifying for months, and the promise by Prime Minister Netanyahu that a bill would be passed to the satisfaction of the ultra-Orthodox parties in the governing coalition was key to securing their support for a budget earlier this year. But earlier this week, the Prime Minister informed his coalition partners that there was no majority for passing such a bill, and those partners moved immediately to dissolve the Knesset.
• The current dissolution proposal does not name a date, though two dates have already been bruited in local media.  By law in Israel, general elections are held on Tuesdays and are paid days off from work. The Shas party is said to prefer September 15, which would fall during the High Holy Days, and would be expected to motivate its voter base. Degel HaTorah is said to prefer September 1, which is normally the first day of school for all schools in Israel, except those that are ultra-Orthodox. A paid holiday would presumably delay that by a day.
• While the ultra-Orthodox parties debate preferred dates for elections, the Prime Minister and his governing Likud party, together with the entire coalition, have a pressing interest in adjusting the date that has nothing to do with the legislative impasse over the conscription law.
• An election in October will happen just as Israelis are marking three years since the traumatising October 7 attack, something the governing coalition as a whole does not believe will be to its advantage.
• The current date, October 27, is particularly problematic because the standard Israeli way of writing the date (27.10) lends itself so easily to graphic manipulation in a way that recalls the standard way of writing October 7 (7.10), that no opposition poster, ad, banner, or video would conceivably resist incorporating into its visual campaign.
• At the same time, with the war in Iran possibly about to restart and the Gaza ceasefire hitting a decisive point where either disarmament begins or the IDF embarks on a renewed offensive inside the approximately 40% of the Strip which it does not currently control, an election campaign in the summer would be nearly impossible.
• Part of Netanyahu’s approach will be to promote his diplomatic achievements and it is in this context that his announcement of secretly visiting the UAE during the war with Iran should be seen. Until this week, nothing was publicly known about the meeting, which was apparently held on March 26 in Al Ain, an oasis city near the border with Oman.
• The Prime Minister’s Office said the visit “brought a historic breakthrough in relations” between Israel and the UAE, while the UAE Foreign Ministry angrily denied that a meeting had even taken place.
• The Foreign Ministry’s statement also denied “receiving any Israeli military delegation,” a denial that would seem to be referring to reports circulating over the past week that Israel sent an Iron Dome batter to the Emirates with Israeli soldiers to operate it during the war. Over the course of the fighting earlier this year, Iran targeted the UAE with more missiles than any other country, including Israel.
• These leaks (followed by official statements) from the Prime Minister’s Office are another indication of what the Prime Minster might hope to accomplish in the final months of this term before facing the voters.
• A diplomatic breakthrough or significant strategic achievement are the only hope the governing coalition, down in the polls by large margins since 2023, for an electoral comeback. Talk of imminent normalisation agreements with either Saudi Arabia or Lebanon has occasionally bubbled up from the Prime Minister’s milieu over recent months – and US led talks between Israel and Lebanon are set to resume today in Washington – but so far nothing of the sort has come to pass.

Looking ahead: In no poll does the current coalition of right-wing, religious-nationalist, and ultra-Orthodox parties come close to a majority in the Knesset.

• Polls over the past two years consistently show the coalition, which commands 68 seats in the current parliament, returning with 48 to 52 seats (the Jewish opposition parties generally poll between 57-61 while the Arab parties are generally polling at approximately 10 seats). Even among right-wing voters, draft deferments for ultra-Orthodox men are extremely unpopular.
• The coming weeks will  see last-ditch attempts to pass legislation that either will be unlikely to secure a majority in the next parliament or could affect the outcome of the coming election.
• Among other matters on the agenda are the proposal to split the position currently held by the Attorney General into two or even three different positions. This proposed reform would formally result in a situation more in line with other parliamentary democracies, but it is regarded with suspicion by the Opposition who see it as an attempt to quash the Prime Minister’s corruption trial as well as a way of forcing through future legislation that might otherwise be moderated on constitutional grounds.
• Also under consideration is a lowering of the electoral threshold, which both parliamentary blocs, stung by recent experiences of “vote wasting” may yet support.

What’s happened: Ahead of tomorrow’s hearing at Israel’s High Court of Justice, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara has submitted her position arguing that the decision to appoint Roman Gofman as the next head of Mossad must be overturned.

• Currently PM Netanyahu’s military secretary, Gofman’s appointment has already been approved by the Senior Appointments Advisory Committee. However, according to the Attorney General, there were “substantive flaws, both in the procedure employed by the committee, as well as in the factual foundation upon which the committee’s majority opinion was based, and in the conclusions that it formulated. This is sufficient to mandate the cancellation of the prime minister’s decision regarding the appointment.”
• Baharav-Miara also revealed that the current director of the Mossad, David Barnea has written a classified letter to the court against the appointment. Israel media have reported excerpts of the letter in which Barnea wrote that Gofman, “has a significant problem with ethical integrity and establishing self-imposed boundaries.”
• Barnea wrote that, “When a commander decides to circumvent military regulations, takes the law into his own hands, and chooses to do something he is not supposed to do, this has very far-reaching implications. Any command-level reprimand disqualifies a promotion, certainly a promotion to Mossad director. I view this case as someone abusing his power, even if it only lasted two weeks. After the initial decision, he should have reconsidered, even if the mistake hadn’t been discovered at that stage. Gofman should not be appointed director of the Mossad.”
• Not for the first time, the attorney general’s rejection of this government’s appointment received severe criticism. Finance Minister Smotrich said that her, “position against Gofman’s appointment is one step too far. We are determined to pass the legislation to split the role of the attorney general during the summer session.”
• Coalition Chairman MK Ofir Katz, sarcastically referred to the attorney general as, “Opposition Chairperson” claiming she is “conducting a hunt against excellent, heroic and worthy officers, only because this is the government that appoints them. She should be ignored and continue the appointment.”

Context: Maj. Gen. Roman Gofman currently serves as the military secretary to the prime minister. Whilst he is considered a courageous military commander he has no specific experience in intelligence operations.

• The main scrutiny over his appointment relates to an incident in 2022 when Gofman was the commander of an IDF Division in the north. He allegedly authorised two intelligence officers to act as handlers for a 17-year-old influencer Ori Elmakayes. The two sent
• Elmakayes classified information and asked him to post it online in an attempt to mount an “influence campaign”—even though they were not authorised to do so. Subsequently, Elmakayes was arrested by the Shin Bet for publishing secret information. He was held in solitary confinement for about two months and was then charged with espionage, and imprisoned for more than a year. In all that time without Gofman or anyone on his behalf stating that they were the ones who had instructed him to do so.
• Gofman and his subordinates were never investigated as part of the affair and took no responsibility for it. They were questioned in the context of an internal IDF inquiry where they received a command level reprimand.
• The Senior Appointments Advisory Committee refused to meet with Elmakayes and hear his version.
• In his letter Barnea also wrote, “I cannot imagine that anyone beneath me would approve such an operation at all. In general, taking a 17-year-old, allowing him to sit for a year and a half—I don’t even know over what—while no one bothered to come and get him out of there. These are not our morals, not our values, it is beyond our red lines, and not within the realm of what is permissible or forbidden.”
• According to Gofman, he played no role in handling Elmakayes.
• If his candidacy is ultimately rejected, commentators have suggested that the current deputy director is ideally placed to take on the role. As is the Israeli convention, his name is not allowed to be published but merely referred to by his first initial “A.” He has been endorsed by Barnea, and is one of the most decorated high-ranking Mossad officials. Also for the benefit of the current government, he is also considered a right-wing ideologue.
• For all the recent success’s attributed to the Mossad, including the beeper operation and numerous successes in Iran and elsewhere, it would seem logical to many that the successor come from within.
• Maariv credits other quotes to Barnea saying, “The Mossad director is the only job in Israel in which the person holding the job is not subject to any regulation. He does as he pleases. He isn’t subordinate to anything. He is not subject to any regulation. He operates in the dark, in the twilight zone, carries out dramatic operations without regulation and without oversight, makes decisions and does not have above him an orderly mechanism of review, oversight or approval.”
• “The Mossad director needs to reach that job when he has clear red lines, when he is capable of distinguishing between right and wrong, between what is allowed and what is forbidden, between the various aspects and consequences of Mossad operations. Gofman’s previous entanglements point to extreme unsuitability.”
• Unlike James Bond, the Mossad doesn’t have a open ended ‘license to kill.’ Operations that could potentially kill human beings must be approved by the SHR – the Service Heads Committee, which includes the Mossad director, the director of military intelligence and the prime minister’s military secretary.

Looking ahead: The High Court will review the appointment tomorrow, and could invite Barnea the current Mossad director to present his objections.

• The new head of Mossad is due to begin is role in early June.

New Names: Ahead of the Israeli general election, a slew of new names have announced their intention to run for political office.

• The latest name – and most senior new recruit so far – is Yoram Cohen, the former head of the Shin Bet, who yesterday announced that he is joining Yashar led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.  
• A week ago Eisenkot announced that Shaul Meridor will be joining his party. Meridor was the former director of the Budget Department in the Finance Ministry. If elected, he would be Israel’s first third-generation politician. His father Dan, was the cabinet secretary in Begin’s government and went onto serve as a minister for both justice and finance with Likud under Netanyahu, before forming the Centre Party. He continued to serve in a series of senior positions including minister of intelligence and deputy prime minister. Shaul’s grandfather Eliyahu was a commander in the Irgun and a Knesset member for the Herut faction (precursor to the Likud).
• Inbar Yehezkeli has also joined Eisenkot’s list. She is former senior official from the Welfare Ministry. She has also led several civil society organisations focusing on protecting women and was also a senior social policy adviser to then-finance minister Moshe Kahlon.
• Even before the merger with Yair Lapid to create the Together Party, Naftali Bennett  recruited senior female officials. The first of whom, Keren Terner, held a senior role in the Transport Ministry and is a former director-general of the Finance Ministry.
• Another one, recruited by Bennett is former director-general of the Communications Ministry Liran Avisar Ben Horin.
• In an effort to appeal to younger voters and reservists, Bennett also included Yonatan Shalev on his list. Shalev is a 23-year-old military reservist and founder of the “Shoulder to Shoulder” movement, a grassroots initiative advocating military service for all, particularly the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox.
• Avigdor Liberman’s party Yisrael Beiteinu has also recruited some new blood including Sharon Sharabi, the brother of hostage survivor Eli Sharabi and murdered hostage Yossi Sharabi.
• Also joining Liberman is Israel Ben-Shitrit, an IDF reservist who served as a deputy company commander and was seriously wounded in battle in Gaza in early 2024. He is a 40-year-old father of five from the southern town of Yeruham.  

Context: It is quite unusual to have so many political announcements before the election date has even been set, although everyone understands the election must be held by the end of October.

• All the attention around new recruits has so far been focused on the opposition parties that are jockeying and competing against the current government. They all intend to cooperate after the election with the shared aim of defeating Netanyahu and forming the next government.    
• According to recent polling, the Bennett – Lapid merger has not seem any dramatic change in voting patterns. They were hoping the move would increase their share of the vote and cement the pair as the leaders of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, but their differences appear to have put off some supporters that either perceive Bennett as too right-wing or Lapid as too left.
• There remains the possibility of further mergers with both Bennett and Lapid appealing to Eisenkot to join them too. Eisenkot’s support currently appears to be growing, but it is not impossible that based on internal polling he may eventually join them too. Alternatively, Liberman is also courting Eisenkot and is open to a potential merger.
• Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party has disintegrated in the polls and several of his current members of Knesset are also looking to join one of the other parties. In the latest blow, his founding partner Chili Troper announced that he was leaving the ticket. He could eventually join either Bennett or Eisenkot.      
• Writing in Maariv this morning, Ben Caspit described Yoram Cohen as the “hottest item on the political shelf.”  He goes on to describe the similarities between Cohen and Eisenkot. “Both are sons of Mizrahi families: Eisenkot’s parents immigrated to Israel from Morocco; Cohen’s parents immigrated to Israel from Afghanistan, which is why he was nicknamed the “Afghan” throughout his 35-year career in the Shin Bet. Both firmly believe in the motto, “Don’t whine, excel.” Both grew up in the periphery and ostensibly didn’t stand a chance of succeeding. Both succeeded in reaching the top of the Israeli defence pyramid. Both are modest, country-first patriots. Both were raised in religious households. Eisenkot, as an adult, is not religious; Cohen is—the best of the national-religious community.”
• There is also speculation over who will join the Likud. Among the rumours, Yossi Cohen, the former head of Mossad, would be the biggest ‘star’. There have also been suggestions that Netanyahu will recruit family members of victims of October 7, that would help him deal with criticism over the government’s failure. The Likud is one of the only remaining parties with internal democratic mechanisms that sees party members vote for the list. However, it has also been customary to give the party leader discretion to reserve some slots to place his candidates on the list. This may be the case again this time, though there are also calls to cancel the internal primaries with the fear that it will further unsettle the party and lead to more rifts and factions.
• In the background there are rumours of another new party – “Likud 2.0” that would be led by current or former Likud ministers such as Gilad Erdan (former Israeli ambassador to the UN), Yuli Edelstein (former speaker of the Knesset) and Moshe Kahlon (former Finance Minister).

Looking ahead: The election date has not yet been set, but must be held by October 27, the latest and declared three months in advance.

• One theory suggests Netanyahu may go a week early and settle for October 20, which would avoid association with the number seven [i.e. the disaster of October 7].
• His ultra-Orthodox partners are keen for a date in early September. This is seen as their optimal time, as it falls in the lead up to the Jewish High Holidays and numerous opportunities to reach their target audience to shore up their support.
• Another theory suggests Netanyahu would prefer a date that he can best present diplomatic and security achievements. This could be earlier or later, depending if for example he can sell a deal with Iran as a political win.

What’s happened: The IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir addressed the Senior Command Forum on Monday and spoke out against “unethical incidents.”

• Zamir stressed that the army is built on values. When reviewing two and half years of intense combat, he reiterated, “unethical incidents we have seen are not justified. We must not compromise on our values. Erosion of values and standards can be as dangerous as operational threats.”
• He continued, “The phenomenon of looting, if it exists, is disgraceful. If such incidents occurred, we will investigate them. I define clearly here as well: IDF personnel, in both regular and reserve service, will not use social media as a tool to spread controversial messages or for self-promotion. This is a red line that must not be crossed, and those who do so will face disciplinary action. The uniform we wear is a symbol of where we serve and of our values, we must not use it irresponsibly.” He was referring to the relatively new phenomenon of soldiers adding non-military badges onto their uniform.  
• Adding further, “We will not allow political discourse in our ranks. The public looks to us and relies on us. We will not ask what others will say about us, but what is right for the IDF. We will continue to act according to a clear moral compass and will not allow deviation from the proper path.”
• He also related to the role of women serving in the military, “Women are an integral part of the IDF and of its operational strength. There will be no exclusion of women in the IDF. Their integration is rooted in values and equality and is an operational necessity that must be pursued fairly and without prejudice.”
• Among the IDF values taught to every recruit includes the obligation to protect human dignity of every individual, regardless of their ethnicity, religion, nationality, gender or status.
• On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu also tried damage mitigation (following the recent image of IDF soldiers damaging a statue of Jesus in southern Lebanon) by meeting with a group of Christian soldiers serving in the IDF. He referred to them as an “extraordinary group of young men and women. These are Christian soldiers, men and women, in the Israeli Defence Forces. They fill all the important positions in our incredible military and they do incredible work.”
• Netanyahu added, “This is completely contrary to what is presented outside. It’s not only that Israel fights for the rights of Christians around the Middle East, but that Israel has Christian soldiers who fight for the defence of Israel and for our Christian brethren throughout the area, throughout the region and beyond….Israel is the one country in the Middle East where the Christian community is thriving, is growing and it’s expanding.”

Context: The IDF Chief of Staff also addressed the ongoing operational issues as the IDF remains deployed across multiple fronts.

• He related to the new security posture, and how across all sectors, the IDF has “established forward defence areas on the frontlines, adjacent to our communities, in the Gaza Strip, Syria, and Lebanon” adding that “We must be prepared to remain in these areas as long as sustained security for our communities has not yet been ensured.”He noted the political leadership is currently engaged in three negotiations relating to Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza.
• On Lebanon he said, “The forward defence posture in Lebanon continues until the security of the northern communities is ensured. The negotiations currently underway are grounded in the military achievements we have secured.”
• Despite President Trump’s declared ceasefire and two rounds of talks between Israeli and Lebanese officials in Washington, the fighting is ongoing. Prime Minister Netanyahu clarified that Israel retains freedom of action in Lebanon with the consent of the US and the Lebanese government.
• Lebanese President Aoun has defended his government’s stance in negotiating with Israel. Responding to accusations from Hezbollah about treason, Aoun said, “Treason is the one who takes his country to war for external interests….My goal is to reach an end to the war with Israel in accordance with a ceasefire agreement.” Adding, “If this were a war on Lebanon, we would support it, but this is a war for the interests of others,” he said, referring to Iran, “and therefore I completely oppose it.”
• On Monday the IDF struck more than 20 Hezbollah infrastructure sites in the Beqaa Valley and in southern Lebanon. Among the sites targeted were weapons storage facilities and rocket launch sites. However in the ten days since the ceasefire was announced the IDF have so far refrained from striking Hezbollah assets in Beirut.
• In that same time-frame there have been over 40 separate incidents of Hezbollah missile and drone attacks on northern Israel and towards IDF troops operating in southern Lebanon.
• The IDF have identified a new trend with Hezbollah’s deployment of suicide drones. Hezbollah operates two types:
  • The first are remote controlled and can be more easily intercepted electronically.
  • The second are connected by fibre optic cables, sometimes up to 15km away and can be operated remotely via a camera and deliver a six kg payload of explosives with exceptional accuracy. It was this type that killed an IDF soldier over the weekend and injured several more.
• These drones relatively cheap, are similar to those deployed by Russia in Ukraine. The IDF is currently looking for a defensive solution.
• There remains residual anger from Israelis in the north who continue to face ongoing attacks. On Monday, a drone exploded around 300 metres from a school in the Western Galilee.

Looking ahead: Communities in northern Israel continue to suffer from missile and drone attacks, and decisions over whether to open schools are made on a daily basis.

• Parents and local authority leaders are demanding full protection for all homes and schools that are located up to nine km from the border.

What’s happened: Politics: Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid will run together in the upcoming elections under a new united political party. On Sunday evening they announced the new list named “Together, Led by Bennett.”

• Bennett said, “I am taking the most Zionist and most patriotic step we have ever taken, for our country… Our unity sends a message to all the people of Israel: the era of division is over. The era of repair has arrived.”
• He re-committed to his three pledges:
  • “On the first day of the new government under my leadership, we will establish a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 massacre to bring truth to the families and answers to all the people of Israel,”
  • Initiate a universal conscription law, and stop funding ultra-Orthodox draft evasion.
  • Introduce the term limit of a prime minister to eight years.
• Bennett added that he will:
  • “Safeguard the lands of our country and will not hand over a single centimetre to the enemy,”
  • Work to “strengthen an inclusive, welcoming Judaism without coercion.”
  • Bennett also said that a government led by him would advance same-sex marriage, along with civil marriage. The current status quo is under exclusive domain of respective religious authorities.
• Lapid explained his thinking behind the move, “The State of Israel needs to change direction. This is a test of our leadership, and we will meet it. What you have seen today is the first step. We are here because this country needs unity like air to breathe. We are here for everyone who believes in democracy, believes in the deep Jewish foundation of the country, believes in the values of Zionism and our right to this land.”
• In his view, “to win the elections, the entire Israeli centre must stand behind Naftali Bennett. Bennett is a clear right-winger, but he is a liberal, decent, law-abiding right-winger who did not sell his values – neither to Haredi extortion nor to corruption – he was an excellent prime minister, and he will be an excellent prime minister. This is what we need now.”

Context: Whilst no real surprise, the move cements the opposition bloc under Bennett’s leadership.

• Lapid and Bennett first formed a political friendship and alliance when they both joined Netanyahu’s third government in 2013, and doing so blocked the entry of the ultra-Orthodox parties. That government survived less than two years after Netanyahu sacked Lapid as his finance minister. Since 2015 every Netanyahu government has included the ultra-Orthodox parties.
• The only break in the Netanyahu monopoly was the brief 2021-22 broad coalition government that saw Bennett and Lapid serve as (short-lived) rotating prime ministers. There is no suggestion that rotation is on the agenda this time.
• Bennett and Lapid’s broad coalition was the first in Israel’s history to include an Arab party, with the Islamic Raam Party and its leader Mansour Abbas part of the coalition.
• The timing of the announcement, amid a fragile ceasefire and in the week following Israel’s Independence Day, also symbolises the first significant consolidation ahead of the election that must be held within six months, and must be announced in the next three months.
• One of remaining issues to be determined is whether Gadi Eisenkot, who had initially recommended the three of them unite, will also join them. Both Bennett and Lapid are on good personal terms with Eisenkot, and the possibility remains open for him to join them at some point.            
• Eisenkot who formed his Yashar party after serving as Benny Gantz’s deputy welcomed Bennett and Lapid’s decision to unite, saying that he had spoken to Bennett on the phone half an hour before the announcement. He said, “I see Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid as partners and will continue to do, with responsibility and wisdom, what is right to achieve the victory and the change needed for the State of Israel.”
• The move was also welcomed by other members of the anti-Netanyahu bloc.  
• However the decision came under fierce criticism by the Likud and the right-wing parties accusing them of once more preparing to form a coalition with Raam, and by extension with the Muslim Brotherhood. Whist technically accurate, Mansour Abbas the leader of Raam is also seen as brave moderate leader, who in the past has acknowledged his place as a Muslim minority in the Jewish State.    
• There is a general feeling in Israeli society that after the trauma of October 7 and the ensuing 2.5 years of war, the possibility of Jewish-Arab political cooperation – as represented in the previous Bennett-Lapid government of which Mansour Abbas was a member – has been weakened.
• In a press conference in June 2024, Lapid said that “I have explained and we studied and I think that Mansour Abbas has also understood this, that they can’t be the 61st coalition member. It is impossible to establish a government that is dependent on them, without Israeli society and also Arab society not being able to deal with that. The Jewish and the Arab public are not ripe for a government in which the Arab parties will be the deciding voice.”
• The polling has remained relatively static for some time, with Bennett’s party neck and neck with the Likud around mid-20 seats. It is Eisenkot’s party that has some momentum polling in the mid- teens, at the expense of Lapid’s Yesh Atid that has fallen into single digits.
• The other advantage Bennett received by uniting with Lapid is significant financial backing. Although trailing in the polls, Yesh Atid is still the second largest party in the current Knesset and will therefore receive a substantial proportion of the state funding for the upcoming campaign.
• It remains unclear how the merger will affect the opposition bloc’s overall success, but the other opposition parties are all confident they represent a specific sector, so Yair Golan’s Democrat Party are the representatives of the Israeli left, having combined the Labour and Meretz parties, (with their separate runs in the 2022 elections seen as an error). Meanwhile Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beteinu, with a right-wing but anti ultra-Orthodox sentiment has the sectoral backing of Russian-speaking immigrants. It is expected that the three or four competing Arab parties will also reunite their Joint List, that could increase their electoral power significantly.

Looking ahead: The election is scheduled for no later than October, and a formal 90 day campaign beforehand will begin after the Knesset has been dissolved.

What’s happened: This morning a memorial siren sounded across Israel in honour of Holocaust Remembrance Day.

• The traditional opening ceremony at Yad Vashem in Jerusalem on Monday evening was this year prerecorded and was held without any audience because of the ongoing security situation.
• In his speech President Herzog noted, “There are those who seek to destroy this home that we built, even today. For two and a half years, the State of Israel has been at war, since that frightful day, the October 7th massacre. In every place and every site I visit, I see Israeli society and the spirit that animates it. Across the length and breadth of the land, in bomb shelters, at sites destroyed by missile attacks, in hospitals, in command centres, and volunteer hubs, I see the solidarity, the heroism, the devotion, and the mutual responsibility.”
• He used the opportunity to call for national unity, saying, “History has repeatedly taught us the high price of internal fighting and division and, alternatively, the strength of mutual responsibility and fraternity. Based on that memory, based on everything that our people has endured, we must say to ourselves, especially today: We did not rise from the fire of the crematoria only to burn in the fire of quarrel.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said in his speech that the establishment of the State of Israel may not have ended antisemitism and belligerence against the Jewish people but, as opposed to the past, the people who seek to destroy us bring destruction down upon themselves.
• Netanyahu said, “This year we will remember that the State of Israel is at its all-time peak in strength. Who could have imagined 80 years ago that our bold air force pilots and the American military’s pilots would defend, wing-to-wing, the Middle East, Israel and the United States of course, to defend civilization from barbarism.”  
• As in previous speeches, Netanyahu connected the memory of the Holocaust to the Iranian threat. Netanyahu said, “Indeed, we have destroyed large parts of the industry of death that the Iranian regime had developed over decades: the nuclear plants, missiles, UAVs, the naval fleet, the air force, and vast quantities of other weapons systems. Had we not acted, the names Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan and Parchin might have been remembered eternally in infamy, just like Auschwitz, Treblinka, Majdanek, and Sobibor. But we acted, and how—in an unprecedented historic partnership with President Trump and the United States.”
• Netanyahu also criticised Europe, which he said “has forgotten so much since the Holocaust, can learn many things from us, primarily: the sharp distinction between good and evil, which, in the moment of truth, requires us to go to war for the sake of good, for the sake of life. Europe, which vowed after World War II to defend the good, is infested today with a deep moral weakness. Europe is losing control over its identity, its values and its commitment to protect civilisation from barbarism.”

Context: Israel formally designated “Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day,” on the Hebrew date of 27 Nisan in 1951, after the Knesset debated several options.

• The date chosen is a week after Passover, close to the anniversary of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, which began on Passover. For the then young State of Israel the main driver was to connect remembrance of the Holocaust with Jewish resistance. Whereas International Holocaust Remembrance Day on January 27 marks the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau.
• This year there are 116,880 Holocaust survivors still alive and living in Israel. Just over 13,000 survivors died in the last year. There were 115 Holocaust survivors who were among the thousands evacuated from their homes as a result of the latest Iran war.            
• In Israel, the memorial is also an opportunity to reflect on growing antisemitism around the world. There have been over 1,000 antisemitic incidents around the world in the last year, resulting in 20 Jews killed, 15 of whom  in the terror attack on Bondi Beach. This figure reflects a 30 year high.

Looking ahead: Direct talks between the ambassadors of Israel and Lebanon are due to begin later today in Washington.

• In parallel, the operation Bint Jbeil is expected to continue for a few more days.
• Next Tuesday Israel will mark Memorial Day for those fallen in wars and terror attacks, and the following day celebrate Israel’s 78th Independence Day.