Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated July 8, 2025

Netanyahu and Trump coordinate future moves

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in Washington and had dinner with President Trump in an event that was not open to media.

Before the meeting, Trump announced that talks on a new nuclear deal with Iran were scheduled and he once more pledged to do everything to ensure Iran would not acquire nuclear weapons. “We have scheduled Iran talks,” he said, “and they want to talk. They took a big drubbing, I think, when we hit the three sites, really, I would say the three sites, not just the one. The one was a big one.”
Israeli officials in Washington briefing journalists claimed that talks in Doha on a new hostage deal were reaching a conclusion. One much quoted anonymous source said that the deal was “80 to 90 percent agreed on.” In other places, the quote, attributed to a senior official briefing reporters on the flight to Washington, was that Israel had achieved “80 to 90 percent” of its goals in the negations in Doha.
Kan News’ diplomatic correspondent Suleiman Maswadeh reported from Washington that according to Israeli sources there it was possible that an agreement would not be signed this week but rather next. Maswadeh further reported that the delays last week were caused by Hamas rejecting the Witkoff framework, and that Hamas categorically rejected the conditions that might have led to an immediate release of all hostages, rather than the emerging framework for a partial release during the ceasefire.

Gaza: Five IDF soldiers were killed and fourteen others injured yesterday in an incident in Beit Hanoun, in the northern Gaza Strip.

All five served in the Netzah Yehuda Battalion of the Kfir Brigade. They were identified as Staff Sergeant Meir Shimon Amar, 20, from Jerusalem; Sergeant Moshe Nissim Frech, 20, from Jerusalem; Sergeant First Class (res.) Benyamin Asulin, 28, from Haifa; Staff Sergeant Noam Aharon Musgadian, 20, from Jerusalem; and Staff Sergeant Moshe Shmuel Noll, 21, from Beit Shemesh.
37 soldiers have been killed since the end of the ceasefire in March this year. 888 IDF soldiers have been killed in total since the war began on October 7, 2023.
The deadly incident in Beit Hanoun occurred roughly one kilometre from the border fence in an area that has been in full control of the IDF since the ground operation began in late October 2023 — including during the two ceasefires. Army Radio reports that it is still unclear how a terrorist squad was able to operate in the area, to plant at least four explosive devices that were remotely detonated.
In Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir met with troops and reiterated his commitment to the war’s two principal objectives, defeating Hamas and liberating the hostages. “Alongside Iran, the central theatre is in Gaza. We are determined and we will lead here to victory… All roads lead to one place: hostages and victory.”

Context: The talks in Washington are focused on the hostage deal, the anticipated nuclear talks with Iran and wider regional moves towards normalisation between Israel and Sunni Arab states.

Talks in Doha dealt not just with the proposed 60-day ceasefire and partial hostage release, but with some general terms regarding the end of the war that would be negotiated during the ceasefire. Leaks to Israeli media suggest that the Israeli Government still rejects a role for the Palestinian Authority in the Strip after the war. “There will be another force in the Strip that will include Palestinians, for sure, but not the PA,” according to the senior Israeli official briefing reporters on the flight to Washington.
Israel Hayom claims that Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected proposals from Washington that would have included a rhetorical commitment to a Palestinian state as a way of securing a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. According to the report, the Prime Minister’s position remains that Palestinian statehood “was permanently removed from the table in the wake of the October 7 massacre.”
The US lifted sanctions against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the organisation that was led by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa until he seized power in the country. As of June 23, the organisation is no longer designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation by the US State Department.
On a visit to Damascus on Saturday, the Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, also announced that the UK would be resuming diplomatic ties with Syria. Despite this, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains a proscribed organisation.
American mediated talks seek to reach an agreement between Israel and Syria. US officials are reported to believe that an agreement with Syria will soften Netanyahu’s position on Gaza and allow him to make concessions during the negotiations to end the war during the ceasefire he might otherwise have struggled to push through politically.
Lebanon, too, is looking to reach an agreement with Israel. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced that he seeks a security arrangement with Israel which would see the latter fully withdraw from Lebanese territory and commit Lebanon to disarming Hezbollah.
Besides the regional peace initiatives, another goal of the Prime Minister’s visit in Washington is to secure US commitments on Israel’s interests in Iran. Specifically, the Prime Minister reportedly wants US support for a future attack on Iran should the Islamic regime either move its stockpile of highly enriched uranium or rebuild the core facilities damaged by Israeli and US air strikes in June, including not just those related to its nuclear programme but also its missile production sites.
Additionally, Israeli officials seek a US commitment to demand zero enrichment on Iranian soil as a condition for any future nuclear agreement, a position the Trump administration was deliberately ambiguous about in the earlier negotiations conducted in the spring of this year.

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Yisrael Katz has asked the IDF to prepare a “humanitarian city” to be built on the ruins of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip

A key indicator of progress in the hostage talks will be when US envoy Witkoff joins the talks in Doha.
Netanyahu will remain in Washington for at least two more day: Later today, he will meet Vice President JD Vance and Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson. Tomorrow, he is scheduled to meet with Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth and on Thursday with leaders of the Jewish community. Sources in the prime minister’s entourage said there is no intention of extending the visit to the US into the weekend this time.

July 7, 2025

Netanyahu arrives in DC, as negotiators meet in Doha

What’s happening: Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with President Trump later today. Before that he will meet with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and with Secretary of State Rubio.

President Trump told reporters last night that he believed that a Gaza ceasefire is close. He also said that he would discuss with Netanyahu a permanent agreement with Iran.
On Sunday, Israel dispatched a negotiating team to Doha. A deal is not thought to be imminent and talks are expected to take several days.
Before departing, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel was working to reach an agreement to free the hostages under conditions Israel had agreed. He added that the negotiating team that was sent to Doha had been given clear instructions.
On Saturday night, the Israel government voted to expand the distribution of Humanitarian Aid in northern Gaza. It is understood that the distribution would be handled by international aid organisations, and not Israel’s preferred partner the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
The cabinet meeting included a heated stand-off between IDF Chief of Staff Zamir and Finance Minister Smotrich, who along with National Security Minister Ben Gvir objected to the expansion of aid, as it is inevitably seized by Hamas.

Context: The return of Israeli negotiators to Doha is a source for optimism although officials have cautioned that gaps remain.

The negotiators are reportedly working on bridging these gaps, following Hamas’s positive response towards the Witkoff outline, with the group agreeing to certain parts but adding several caveats.
The latest reported details suggest eight hostages are to be released on the first day and two are to be released on the 50th day. The remains of deceased hostages will be released on three separate dates—five on the seventh day, five on the 30th day and eight on the 60th day.
Israeli officials believe that two factors have caused Hamas to show greater flexibility in ceasefire talks: The first is the IDF’s military advances over the last two months which have led to Hamas losing control over more territory and some parts of the population as well as the continued elimination of some of its commanders; the second is Israel’s successful strike against Iran.
The IDF has suggested that Operation Gideon’s Chariots is now close to completion and has endorsed a deal at this stage.
Over the weekend, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum stated its opposition to a deal that would free the hostages in stages. “The method of stages and partial agreements creates unbearable uncertainty for every single family, all of which yearn for some sort of salve after 638 days – whether that be to embrace their returning loved ones or having a grave to mourn at.”
Speaking at a rally yesterday in Tel Aviv, Yotam Cohen, the brother of IDF hostage Nimrod Cohen, said “People who take the responsibility to send soldiers into battle need to have the courage to pay the price to get them back home.”

Unresolved issues: Hamas has three key demands:

The IDF withdraw to the positions it held in early March, prior to Operation Gideon’s Chariots. This includes swaths of territory mainly in southern Gaza, where Israel currently holds the Morag Corridor between Rafah and Khan Yunis.
Maintaining the Morag Corridor will allow the IDF to continue to control the southern Gaza Strip and the aid distribution centres, and will also allow it to set up a humanitarian zone that is not under Hamas’s control.
Since the beginning of the operation, the IDF has also made advancements in the north, in Bet Lahiya, Bet Hanoun and Sajaiya.
Hamas demands that only the UN oversees aid distribution. The Israeli government’s – whilst continuing to cooperate with the UN mechanism – has serious concerns that it only perpetuates Hamas governability.
Without control of the aid, Hamas is struggling to pay its troops’ salaries and recruit new ones.
Hamas also hopes to regain control over areas in which the GHF currently operates in the south.
Israel has demanded a different distribution mechanism that would prevent Hamas from commandeering the supplies, including international supervision.
Hamas has also demanded that sufficient aid be delivered to allow bakeries, hospitals and other civilian infrastructure to operate at full capacity. Israel remains concerned some of the material will be siphoned off and used for military purposes.
A third Hamas demand is a US written guarantee that the ceasefire will be upheld throughout the negotiations over the war’s end, even if the negotiations continue beyond the 60^th day.

Longer term: Any agreement would last 60 days with the real challenge arriving at the subsequent stage of the talks when even more sensitive issues would be discussed. These include:

Agreed IDF deployment and future rules of engagement.
Exile of Hamas leaders, even if only symbolic.
Demilitarisation, and the disarming of Hamas as well as their future functioning in Gaza.
Future governance and makeup of the new administration.

Yemen: Israel attacked Houthi terrorist targets in Yemen Sunday night for the first time since the war against Iran ended.

This came after a renewed albeit sporadic Houthi missile attacks against Israel over the past week.
Prior to the strike, Operation Black Flag, the IDF Spokesperson’s Office issued a public warning in which he called for the evacuation of the seaports in Yemen.
The IDF subsequently confirmed that it had struck the ports of Hodeida, Salif and Ras Issa, where Galaxy Leader was also struck. The Galaxy Leader is a commercial ship that was hijacked by the Houthi regime in November 2023.
Twenty IAF war planes took part in Operation Black Flag and fired over 50 munitions. Defence Minister Katz warned, “the rule for Yemen is the rule for Tehran”, alluding into Israeli doctrine towards both regimes.
Yemen fired two missiles in retaliation. Sirens were sounded in the south and centre, no casualties were reported.
After hijacking the ship, the Houthis installed radars and used it to track maritime movement in international waters, effectively turning the hijacked ship into an intelligence vessel which is why it was struck as a military target.
The Galaxy Leader, which is owned by a British company that is partially-owned by the Israeli Rami Ungar, had been leased to a Japanese company.
The Houthis released the 25 crew members, from Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, the Philippines and Mexico in January 2025, during a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Their release was coordinated with Hamas.

July 4, 2025

Gaza Humanitarian Foundation vows to continue aid

It is well documented that Hamas steals international aid entering Gaza through pre-existing NGO and aid channels, then sell it to their people at vastly inflated prices. This ‘tax’ is an essential source of revenue for Hamas and enables them to continue to pay their fighters and those most loyal to the regime, thus prolonging the war.

During the ceasefire, over 300,000 tonnes of food and aid entered Gaza, calculated enough to comfortably sustain the whole population until September 2025. Following the breakdown of the ceasefire in March, Israel prevented any new aid to enter, to cut off this source of funding to Hamas. This action was used by the terrorist group to claim a famine in the territory, despite the warehouses of food stocks available.

Following pressure from the international community, Israel agreed for aid to flow back into the territory, on the condition that systems were put in place to prevent Hamas theft and in adherence to international humanitarian law, the food was free for the people who needed it.

When existing aid organisations were unable to comply, Israel and the USA established a new not-for-profit, the GHF, to establish the teams and mechanisms to achieve these objectives. Recently, 130 charities and aid organisations penned a letter calling for the end of the GHF. It has been reported that as part of the ongoing ceasefire negotiations, one Hamas condition is to return to the old aid delivery system, that profited them well in the past.

On Wednesday July 2, 2025, the Executive Chairman of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, Rev. Dr. Johnnie Moore gave the following statements in an interview:

GHF has one job to do, and it’s to deliver free food to the people of Gaza. “We are not a political organisation. We have no other agenda”.
GHF mission is to deliver as much food as possible. “Tens of thousands of boxes of food are delivered to Gaza every day, and now even twice a day in a single distribution”.
GHF is a private US charity, so it doesn’t need to disclose its donors, “because we are a democracy”.
“The real heroes of the operation are the local Gazan aid workers who work every single day to deliver food to the people.”
“12 of which were mercilessly brutally murdered by Hamas in a targeted operation in the Gaza Strip, and not only did they murder these 12 aid workers, but they piled them in front of the hospital along with the injured and refused to allow them to even get medical care”.
“There is an unbelievable effort around the world to try to shut down our operation. We will not be shut down”.
GHF don’t exist to replace the UN aid but to subsidise, to collaborate with other aid organisations on problem-solving.
There is a disinformation/misinformation campaign around GHF work. Hundred precent of the casualties attributed to GHF.
“I am here in Brussels to correct some of the disinformation/misinformation around our efforts”.
“I am here to be the voice of our aid workers who pay the ultimate price”.
“I am here to be a bridge between the US and the European Union because GHF is a direct mandate of the President of the United States”.
President Trump said that Hamas is treating the people of Gaza very badly by stealing their aid, and he said the US will do something about it.
GHF is operating in a deadly environment.
“This is an active war in one of the most condensed areas in the world and the most complex humanitarian environment in the world, we are operating in”.
UNRWA failed to fulfil its mandate. One of the challenges of GHF, and plenty of countries in the European Union, not only the US, is collaborating with UNRWA.
UNRWA never took seriously the concern of having Hamas infiltration in its operation.
The curriculum of the schools of UNRWA, which is a UN charity, has appalling content which only contributes to hate in the Gaza Strip.
The impetus of the UN against GHF (“which we think is slowly breaking”) is that aid would be distributed to Gaza only with UNRWA.
The seeds of the plan go back to the Biden administration.
Replying to the question: ‘Is there a mass hunger in the Gaza Strip? And there are videos on social media of fully functioning restaurants in Gaza. How is Hamas able to coordinate this?”
“There is mass food insecurity in Gaza, and in certain parts of the Gaza Strip, Hamas is still able to control food”.
Addressing the dispute with the Swiss authorities: “As an American-led initiative, it’s important to have offices in other countries, like Switzerland”.
“My Arab friends know the cost of religious extremism”.
“I think this is a moment of conflict in an era of peace. The truth will prevail, and we are going to see a region which will become a place of peace”.
“I have known President Trump for more than 14 years. No leader in the world is more capable of delivering peace than Trump, and our Arab Friends recognize it”.

July 3, 2025

Inching towards a hostage deal

What’s happened: Following yesterday’s statements from the Trump Administration that Israel had accepted its latest ceasefire proposal, reports in Arab media indicate that Hamas is positively inclined to the proposal as well, and will make a formal response by Friday.

The Saudi news outlet Asharq reports that Hamas is satisfied with the guarantees in the current proposal that the ceasefire would lead to an end to the war. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, speaking in Estonia, told reporters “there are some positive signs” idicating that an agreement was imminent.
On the ground, Sgt. Yaniv Michalovich, 19, from Rehovot, was killed in combat yesterday in the Gaza Strip. Two other soldiers sustained serious injuries in the same incident.
The IDF says that it killed the two Hamas militants who carried out an attack on an Israeli APC last week. The Hamas operatives were killed in a drone strike. The attacks they carried out last week killed seven soldiers from the 605th Combat Engineering Battalion.
Hamas launched two rockets from Gaza to Sderot yesterday. In the evening following the rocket launch, the IDF issued an evacuation order for the neighbourhood from which the rockets were launched. As of this morning, it was engaged in an extensive operation there against the terror cell that launched the rockets.
Investigations into Qatari influence in the Prime Minister’s Office expanded yesterday with the questioning under caution of Major General (res.) Yoav Mordechai, who has held a number of senior roles and, since retiring from service, has been employed by the Israeli firm Novard Group, which has reportedly represented Israeli defence contractors in their dealings with Qatar. According to the allegations under investigation, Novard Group was involved in transferring payments to Jonatan Urich, the senior adviser to the Prime Minister at the centre of the suspected influence ring.

Context: The full details of the latest deal remain unclear. With Prime Minister Netanyahu meeting President Trump next week in Washington it is also unclear the sequencing of when the Israeli cabinet will vote to approve a deal.

Details of the proposed ceasefire reported this morning by The New York Times suggest some differences from earlier reports. In the new version, ten living hostages and eighteen bodies would be released on five different occasions during the 60 days of the ceasefire. Moreover, unlike in the previous ceasefire, there would be no handover “ceremonies.” These staged spectacles provoked much anger and anguish in Israel, in particular regarding the Red Cross’s collaboration with them.
Hamas is currently holding 50 Israeli hostages, of whom 20 are believed to be alive. Hamas’ apparent agreement to the new proposal, still unconfirmed, is conditioned on assurances that the ceasefire period will see negotiations to end the war permanently, the only condition under which the terror organisation will agree to release the remaining hostages it will still be holding at the end of the 60 days of the ceasefire.
Officially and publicly, Israel is still committed to both of its stated war goals: liberating the hostages and ending Hamas rule in Gaza. Speaking to soldiers in Rafah yesterday, Defence Minister Yisrael Katz said, “Getting the hostages and making sure Hamas isn’t here. We won’t let go of that objective. Hamas has not changed.”
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called on Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to meet him urgently to coordinate opposition to the ceasefire deal. Both far-right ministers have in the past opposed any proposals that leave Hamas standing in any form. During the previous ceasefire in January, Ben Gvir resigned from the Government, only to rejoin when fighting started again in March.
In previous rounds, the government had enough votes to approve deals without the hard right factions. Nevertheless, leading figures in the parliamentary opposition made public declarations of support for the ceasefire and pledged to provide the Government with a “safety net” in the Knesset for it to pursue the release of hostages even in the face of far-right defections inside the coalition. Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid said that “compared to Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s 13 votes, you have my 23 votes for a safety net for a hostage deal. They all need to be brought back home now.”
The Democrats Chairman and Maj. Gen. (res.) Yair Golan said, “The pair of failed Kahanists, who have formed a blocking majority against getting the hostages back, are un-Zionist and unworthy of sitting at the cabinet table. And the person who has kept them there is unfit to lead Israel for even a single day longer.” And Benny Gantz, leader of the National Unity Party, posted on social media: “No bloc on earth will stop the return of the hostages. Netanyahu, petty politics won’t be an obstacle to historic steps. You have a large majority to bring back the hostages.”

Looking ahead: Netanyahu is due to arrive in Washington on Sunday, with expectations that a ceasefire agreement, if possible, it to be agreed upon before his arrival. In Washington, he is expected to discuss with Trump a number of other regional initiatives that a ceasefire, as well as the successful war in Iran earlier this month, will have made possible.

According to a detailed report in Israel Hayom, a US-brokered normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia is back on the agenda. Efforts to bring about a full diplomatic normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel were at a mature state before the October 7 attack, and were probably a principal reason for the attack, but since the war began the Saudis have been less interested in pursuing a peace deal with Israel. The coordinated US and Israeli attack on Iran has, according to the report, convinced the Saudis of the importance of formalising their relationship with Israel.
A ceasefire that would lead to an actual end to the war could be an opening for Saudi and Emirati investment in Gaza’s reconstruction – and an opportunity to shut out the Qataris, strategic rivals of the Saudis and Emiratis and until October 7 the main financial backers of Gaza’s Hamas rulers. The paper also reports for the first time that Saudi forces were directly involved in intercepting Iranian drones launched at Israel in the recent war.
Syrian state media, meanwhile, were keen to dampen enthusiasm on a potential peace deal with Israel yesterday. A report on the state TV channel citing an unnamed senior official described such talk as “premature.” The same report reiterated the key Syrian demand of an Israeli withdrawal from lands occupied in recent months beyond the 1974 disengagement lines. Notably, there was, once more, no demand for an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, which Israel conquered in the Six-Day War in 1967.

July 2, 2025

Israel accepts Trump’s ceasefire conditions

What’s happened: President Trump announced that Israel had accepted his “necessary conditions” for a new 60-day ceasefire deal.

His announcement credited the efforts of both Qatar and Egypt in reaching the conditions for an agreement. Disagreements remain regarding the types of guarantees the US would offer to ensure that the ceasefire really does lead to an end of the war, as Hamas insists, and the general contours of both sides’ positions regarding the future governance of Gaza.
According to Trump, the US would “work with all parties to end the War” during the proposed ceasefire period. “I hope… that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,” Trump wrote.
Reports indicated that Hamas had softened its position somewhat on both issues in recent days. Hamas is also making demands regarding the distribution international aid. The newly launched US-backed aid mechanism known as the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is widely seen as a threat to Hamas’ internal power base in Gaza.
Hamas currently holds at least twenty living Israeli hostages abducted in the October 7 attack. Twenty-eight hostages abducted that day are believed to be dead, and there are grave concerns for the well being of two more. Additionally, Hamas holds the remains of one soldier killed in 2014.
Two incidents of settler violence in the Binyamin region of the West Bank have unsettled the political arena in Israel.
On Friday night, radical settlers attacked reservist IDF soldiers who were trying to evacuate an illegal outpost set up on private Palestinian land. Settlers pelted soldiers with rocks, vandalised military vehicles, and reportedly used their own cars to ram military vehicles.
On Sunday, a sensitive IDF facility was damaged by arsonists. Following both incidents, the IDF removed five illegal settler outposts. Prime Minister Netanyahu said of the incidents, “No civilised country can tolerate anarchistic violence such as setting fire to a military installation, damaging IDF property and attacks on security personnel by citizens of the country.”
The IDF announced this morning that it had detained an Iranian terrorist cell operating in southwest Syria. Four Syria citizens were arrested in an operation in two Bedouin villages south of Quneitra.
Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a missile at central Israel yesterday. It was intercepted en route. Both Israeli and American officials made heated public threats to respond in Yemen using means employed against Iran in the recent war, though so far no retaliatory operation to this missile has been mounted.
Gadi Eisenkot resigned his seat in Parliament and officially left Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party. At least two other MK’s are expected to follow him in leaving the party. Speculation is rife that they will be joining a new party to be headed by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

Context: Steps toward a new ceasefire occur on a backdrop of fundamental disagreement in the Israeli defence establishment regarding the goals of the war and their feasibility.

IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir has been reportedly pressing the Government to seize the moment and reach a deal to rescue the remaining living hostages. “Hamas is a dead organisation,” he was quoted as saying on Channel 12 News. “We saw in the war against Iran that they did nothing. They fired a single rocket. The hostages are the most important thing at the moment.”
Far-right ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir strongly disagreed, with the former quoted by Channel 13 News as charging Zamir with “giving up on victory and on winning the war.” Prime Minister Netanyahu, too, made his objections known to any arrangement which would end the war and leave Hamas in power.
At his upcoming meeting with Trump in Washington next week, Prime Minister Netanyahu is also expected to ask the US for guarantees to ensure it can continue to operate against Iranian nuclear facilities in the event Iran tries to restart its nuclear programme, badly damaged in the recent Twelve Day War.
Both Trump and Netanyahu are keen to leverage both the war in Iran and any possible ceasefire in Gaza to achieve other regional agreements, with particular emphasis on Syria and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi interest in a normalisation deal with Israel has cooled of late, despite heightened interest in such a deal in both Jerusalem and Washington. A weakened Iran, the result of a successful Israeli aerial campaign in June, means that the Saudi need for a closer relationship with Israel or the US is not as acute as it once was, and the Saudi demand for a clear path to Palestinian statehood as a condition for any diplomatic engagement may be hard to meet in the initial ceasefire agreement — if there is even one.
In the meantime, efforts are afoot to bring Syria into some kind of normalisation agreement with Israel, or barring that, a more limited belligerence pact. Following the collapse of the Assad regime last December, Israel conducted a massive aerial campaign to destroy the Syrian Air Force and Navy, and the IDF took up positions in southwestern Syria. The IDF occasionally took offensive action in the ensuing months, particularly to protect Syria’s Druze minority. Since May, however, the IDF has refrained from any offensive military action, and the Syrians have reportedly been pursuing peace talks with Israel through European and American mediators.
Reports in Arab media indicate that the Syrians are not interested in a comprehensive peace deal, but rather an accord which would formally end the conflict between the two states. The Syrians have not demanded an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, but have requested that any deal involve an Israeli withdrawal from the buffer zone occupied by Israel since 2024. According to other Arab media reports, pro-Turkish elements in the new Syrian government are worried that any kind of peace deal with Israel would enhance Israeli and Saudi influence in Syria at the expense of Turkey.

Looking ahead: Netanyahu will fly to Washington next week to meet the President and Congressional leaders, as well as Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Defence Hesgeth, and other senior officials.

In cabinet he told ministers that the meetings “come in the wake of the great victory that we achieved in Operation Rising Lion. Taking advantage of the success is no less an important part of achieving the success.” He also added, regarding the recent war with Iran, “I must also say something about the opposition, which during the great challenge, lined up, almost all of them. This is important and I hope that it will be preserved as a compass for the future.”
The contentious appointment of a new Shin Bet Director remains unresolved. Yesterday, the Supreme Court declined to rule on the matter, and instead granted more time for the Cabinet Secretary and the Attorney General to iron out a compromise. If they cannot, the Court will be forced to issue a formal ruling.

June 30, 2025

Speculation and pressure to secure hostage deal

What’s happened: On Sunday, Prime Minister Netanyahu alluded to the latest diplomatic moves being discussed behind the scenes.

Netanyahu suggested, “that many opportunities have now opened in the wake of this victory. adding, “first of all, to extricate the hostages. Obviously, we are going to have to solve the Gaza issue as well, to defeat Hamas, but I expect that we will accomplish both missions.”
In an interview on Fox News President Trump said that other countries had recently reached out to him and had asked to join the Abraham Accords. “We have some really great countries in there right now, and I think we’re going to start loading them up, because Iran was the primary problem.”
Last night the forum of security ministers met to discuss the war in Gaza. The meeting ended without any decision having been made.
Whilst in Gaza, British-Israeli soldier Sgt. Yisrael Natan Rosenfeld, was killed yesterday by a improvised explosive device (IED) in the northern Gaza Strip. He is 880^th IDF soldier to fall since October 2023.
On Sunday the IDF confirmed that Hakham Muhammad Issa Al-Issa, a senior Hamas military wing official, considered one of the architects of the October 7 massacre, had been eliminated. Issa had played a key role in military training and weapons production.

Context: There is renewed hope that, now the war with Iran is over, the government can prioritise securing the release of the 50 hostages, 20 of whom are thought to be alive, who have now been held for 633 days.

Commentators have noted that, in his comments last night, Netanyahu for the first time cited the release of the hostages as the primary objective, rather than the defeat of Hamas.
The change in Netanyahu’s language could also be a result of the position taken by Chief of Staff Zamir, who said that the IDF is close to achieving the objectives it was given in Gaza.
It is understood, the IDF are close to controlling 75 per cent of the Gaza Strip and can’t move much further without risking the hostages. Whist by remaining static they are susceptible to continued Hamas attacks.
Netanyahu’s comments followed the optimistic posts by President Trump and his talk about a possible ceasefire and further diplomatic developments.
As well as ongoing speculation around Saudi Arabia there are suggestions that Syria would be open to normalisation with Israel.
According to the latest reports in Arab media, Syria is demanding Israeli recognition of Ahmed al-Sharaa’s regime, a withdrawal from the buffer zone and the territories that Israel took over in southern Syria, and diplomatic arrangements in southern Syria.
At the same time, sources from diplomatic circles indicate that Syria is prepared to recognise Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Over the weekend a Syrian official said they would not rule out the possibility of a meeting between President al-Sharaa and Prime Minister Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September.
Despite ongoing talks via Egyptian and Qatari mediators no breakthrough has been achieved yet. Hamas still refuses to agree to a partial deal without unequivocal guarantees about the war’s end.
Israel has accepted the US proposed Witkoff deal, but so far Netanyahu, has refused to agree to end the war completely, without Hamas disarming and removal from power.
The Hamas leadership remains in disarray, now compounded by Iran’s defeat — an event with direct implications for both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which were part of the Iranian proxy network and benefited from its technical, military, and financial support.
In parallel, the government has approved the return of residents from eight more communities who were displaced after being attacked by Hamas on October 7, allowing them to return to their homes near the Gaza border. This is another indication that the security threat posed by Hamas has diminished.
Despite the presence of hard-right ministers opposed to ending the war with Hamas, their influence appears to be waning, as the latest polling suggests that many prospective Ben Gvir voters have defected to Likud, while Smotrich continues to poll below the electoral threshold.

Looking ahead: Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer will arrive in Washington today, where he is expected to meet senior White House officials to discuss ending the war in Gaza and the possible expansion of the Abraham Accords.

The security cabinet are expected to reconvene later today.
There is speculation that if successful, Netanyahu will travel to Washington in two weeks’ time.
After his court appearances this week were cancelled, further delays are expected, particularly if he does travel to Washington. After that the court is scheduled to break for its summer recess.

June 25, 2025

Seven IDF soldiers killed in Gaza

Gaza Strip: Seven IDF soldiers were killed in action on Tuesday in Khan Yunis in the Gaza Strip when their Puma armoured combat engineering vehicle was hit by an explosive.

All seven served in the 605th Combat Engineering Battalion. The soldiers were named as Lt. Matan Shai Yashinovski, 21, from Kfar Yona; Staff Sgt. Ronel Ben-Moshe, 20, from Rehovot; Staff Sgt. Niv Radia, 20, from Elyakhin; Sgt. Ronen Shapiro, 19, from Mazkeret Batya; Sgt. Shahar Manoav, 21, from Ashkelon; Sgt. Maayan Baruch Pearlstein, 20, from Eshhar; and Staff Sgt. Alon Davidov, 21, from Kiryat Yam.
879 IDF soldiers have been killed in the war which began on October 7, 2023. 440 of them since Israel began its operation in response to the massacre.
In a separate incident, another soldier from the same battalion sustained serious injuries.

Israel – Iran ceasefire: A comprehensive ceasefire put an end to twelve days of active combat between Israel and Iran yesterday.

The hours immediately before and after the ceasefire saw increased attacks from both sides and doubts about the efficacy of the ceasefire, but by midday yesterday all active combat had ceased.
The ceasefire was due to go into effect at 7:00am Israel time. In the hours leading up to the deadline, Israel mounted a large offensive air operation in Iran, to the apparent surprise and displeasure of the Trump administration.
In the last hour before the ceasefire went into effect, Iran launched four separate missile barrages at Israeli cities. A missile struck an apartment block in Beer Sheva in southern Israel, killing four people. It was one of the deadliest attacks in Israel during the entire 12 days of war.
Hours after the ceasefire had gone into effect, a new Iranian missile attack was aimed at Haifa. Anger in Israel, both at the deadly Beer Sheva attack and the ceasefire violation in Haifa, led the Israeli government to order a new aerial attack on Iran.
The Trump administration exerted public and private pressure on Israel to abort this attack, with Trump making colourful and direct statements on social media and on the White House lawn, as well as holding a phone call with the Israeli prime minister, who ultimately called off most of the planned attack and made do with a symbolic attack on an Iranian radar facility.
With that final blow, the ceasefire entered into full force, and has held so far for more than 20 hours.

Context: With the war seemingly over for now, the rhetorical battle over its outcome began.

A low-confidence preliminary assessment by the US Defence Intelligence Agency that Iran’s nuclear programme was set back only by a few months was seized upon by sceptics of military action in Iran as proof of its lack of efficacy, commanding banner headlines in the New York Times and elsewhere.
Both the US and Israel have yet to make more detailed assessments of the damage to Iranian nuclear sites, as well as to Iran’s existing stock of ballistic missiles and its capacity to make more.
Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to the Israeli public yesterday, saying “we destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme, and if anyone in Iran tries to revive that project, we will act with the same resoluteness and the same force to cut short any attempt of that kind. I reiterate: Iran will not have nuclear weapons.”
President Trump released what appear to be screenshots of private correspondence between him and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, a former Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Rutte welcomes Trump to the NATO conference in the Hague, saying that he was “flying into another big success in The Hague this evening.” Elsewhere in the text exchange, Rutte wrote to Trump, “That was truly extraordinary, and something no one else dared to do… It makes us all safer.”
Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Ronen Bergman focussed on the ballistic missile threat: “Iran fired – and the IAF intercepted – roughly half of the ballistic missiles that Iran possessed prior to the Israeli attack. That is to say, they still have about 1,000 missiles. That means that another roughly 1,000 missiles remain. Israel is estimated to have destroyed about 200 of Iran’s 400 launchers and to have disrupted Iran’s efforts to dramatically expand its missile production, having aimed to produce about 10,000 missiles over the next five years. But do the remaining missiles, launchers and production infrastructure still pose a threat?”
Elsewhere in Israel, attention turned back to the war in Gaza and the plight of the remaining hostages. Speculation abounded that the Israeli government could leverage its success in Iran to reach a more comprehensive ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza — and even ride that to an early election. In Maariv, Ben Caspit appealed to Netanyahu to resist the entreaties of his far-right cabinet ministers to continue the war in Gaza and instead to agree to end the war now. He likened this to Trump’s decision to attack Iran, disappointing his far-right supporters who preferred a more isolationist stance. “Netanyahu, be Trump,” he wrote. “Learn from the unpredictable American president who went against his base… and made the right decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities… Because sometimes you simply need to do the right thing. Trump did it. If Trump could do it, so can you. You need to put an end, here and now, to the needless war in Gaza.”

Looking ahead: Polling in Israel shows a minor increase in the personal popularity of Benjamin Netanyahu, but no dramatic shift in voting preferences for Knesset.

In the first poll taken since the ceasefire in the war with Iran, Netanyahu’s Likud party saw its projected seat count rise to 26 from 22 in previous polls, but the gain was entirely at the expense of other right-wing parties. The current governing coalition, which holds 68 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, received only 49 seats in the latest poll, far short of a majority.
The next election is due to be held in October 2026, but recent weeks have seen much speculation that an early election might be called. Reasons for this include the impasse over drafting ultra-Orthodox men and high expectations among Netanyahu’s supporters that the successful end of the war with Iran could boost his popularity.

June 12, 2025

Hamas kills aid workers

What’s happened: A bus carrying Palestinian aid workers to a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation distribution site was attacked by Hamas gunmen. Five of the Palestinian workers were killed in the attack, and there are unverified reports of a possible abduction as well.

On Wednesday, the GHF announced that it had provided nearly 2.5 million meals that day, and more than 16 million meals to Gazans since it began operations two weeks ago.
The bodies of two Israeli hostages abducted in the October 7 attacks were recovered by Israeli forces yesterday. Both were kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz, where 47 people were murdered and 76 taken hostage during the massacre. The kibbutz had 427 residents when it was attacked by 500 Palestinians from Gaza.
The identity of one of the two murdered hostages was not yet cleared for publication at the request of his family. The other was Yair Yaakov, a resident of the kibbutz who was 59 years old when he was murdered during the October 7 massacre.
Yaakov’s partner, Meirav Tal, and his two sons, Or and Yagil, were abducted and later released in November 2024 as part of the temporary ceasefire deal.
There are currently 53 hostages still being held in Gaza, of whom 20 are estimated to be alive. The bodies of the two hostages were found yesterday in Khan Yunis when an IDF force operating in the area came upon a tunnel entrance and physical evidence that hostages had been held nearby.

June 11, 2025

Israel, US push back on UK announcement to sanction ministers

What’s happened: The UK announced sanctions against two far-right Israeli cabinet ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

The announcement was made in a joint statement by Foreign Secretary David Lammy and the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway. The sanctions include an asset freeze and a travel ban.
The new joint statement justified the measures by alluding to acts of settler violence in the West Bank and accusing the two sanctioned ministers of directly inciting it. However, the ministers went on to confirm their commitment to Israel.
The move was condemned by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who wrote “We reject any notion of equivalence: Hamas is a terrorist organization that committed unspeakable atrocities, continues to hold innocent civilians hostage, and prevents the people of Gaza from living in peace. We remind our partners not to forget who the real enemy is. The United States urges the reversal of the sanctions and stands shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel.”
In Israel, the move was condemned by government ministers, and some opposition figures, including Benny Gantz, who wrote “I vehemently disagree with Ministers Smotrich & Ben-Gvir on a wide range of issues – but the imposition of British sanctions on Ministers in the one and only democracy in the Middle East the State of Israel is a profound moral mistake and sends a dangerous message to terrorists around the world. While the State of Israel defends itself as an outpost of the free world from murderous terror groups & regimes in the region – pressure should rather be directed at Hamas, Iran and its axis of evil.”
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar went further in his criticism, noting that this move, like various other gestures designed to pressure Israel, strengthen Hamas: “The political pressure on Israel, which manifests itself in various ways, has one goal: to bring about an end to the war without achieving its goals, while Hamas still controls Gaza and continues to endanger Israel’s security. This is pressure, well planned and timed, that includes a series of moves by various countries, decisions in international forums, and proceedings in the so-called ‘international courts.’ The actions and decisions against Israel also contribute to hardening Hamas’ stance in the negotiations for the hostage deal – and distance it and the ceasefire.”
This morning he reportedly refused to accept a phone call from his counterpart David Lammy.
The joint statement reiterates that the sanctions “do not deviate from our unwavering support for Israel’s security and we continue to condemn the horrific terror attacks of 7 October by Hamas.  Today’s measures are targeted towards individuals who in our view undermine Israel’s own security and its standing in the world. We continue to want a strong friendship with the people of Israel based on our shared ties, values and commitment to their security and future.”

Context: This latest announcement follows a series of actions by Lammy and Prime Minister Starmer indicating a harder line on Israel, including suspensions of some weapons exports, ending free trade talks, and a previous joint statement with Canada and France condemning Israeli actions in Gaza, which was praised the next day by Hamas.

Individual sanctions of this sort were previously announced for some Russian officials. It’s highly unusual for such action to be taken against ministers in an allied government, and no such action has been considered for officials from Turkey and Qatar, with regimes with close ties to the UK who openly back Hamas.
Though the announcement is billed as a direct response to Israeli actions on the West Bank, it is the war in Gaza, and frustration with Israel’s conduct of the war, that is largely driving the move. The joint statement mentions the war in Gaza only in the last paragraph and reiterates the three principles that have been largely in consensus among western governments regarding the war since it began: access to aid must be unfettered; displacement of population constitutes “unlawful transfer”; and no territorial loss for Gaza can be accepted.
Critics in Israel and elsewhere hold that all three principles are bespoke inventions for this war and exist nowhere in international law or practice — and that they remove any leverage Israel might have to pressure Hamas to release the hostages it took on October 7, while trapping civilians inside a war zone, making attacking Hamas targets more difficult and granting Hamas a propaganda victory when any attack is carried out.
Settlements and settlers are extremely unpopular in western diplomatic circles, and are widely viewed as Israel’s biggest contribution to the absence of peace in the region. The issue of settlements did not figure in the failure of final status talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the past 25 years. In all rounds, Israel agreed to evacuate most settlements in exchange for minor adjustments to the pre-1967 borders to accommodate three blocs of settlements built close to the line. Each round of talks collapsed when the Palestinians turned down offers of statehood conditioned on a full reconciliation and termination of claims, particularly on the refugee issue. Settlements were simply not the reason why peace talks failed or why a two-state solution was not effected.
Nor were settlements the reason for the October 7 attack and the subsequent war. There were no settlements in Gaza when Hamas launched its attack. All Gaza settlements were evacuated in 2005 when Israel withdrew from the 20% of the Strip still under its control under the terms of the Oslo Accords. And despite the war raging for 20 months now, and the IDF placing under its direct control large swathes of territory in the Gaza Strip, not a single settlement has been established anywhere in Gaza, not even in areas that were designated for Israeli control under the Oslo agreements.
Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich head two far-right religious nationalist parties which ran together on a joint list in the most recent elections and secured 14 seats in Israel’s 120-member Knesset. Recent polls show Ben-Gvir’s party at roughly nine seats and Smotrich’s failing to cross the electoral threshold, making their participation in the future government less likely.

Looking ahead: The Israeli government will soon convene to formulate a response.

Opposition parties announced this morning that they would table a motion to dissolve parliament and hold early elections. This comes on the backdrop of a crisis in the governing coalition around draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox community. The ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to bolt the coalition if they are not granted significant concessions in a draft law, while one Likud lawmaker, Yuli Edelstein, has blocked the legislation that would open to the path allowing exemptions to continue.
For the opposition, the decision to bring the motion up for a vote now is a dilemma. If it fails, a new motion to dissolve the Knesset cannot be introduced for another six months.
For the ultra-Orthodox parties who are threatening the coalition, the stakes are just as high. If they carry out their threat and topple the government, they may very well find themselves in opposition in the next Knesset.

June 9, 2025

Israeli Navy intercepts Gaza-bound Flotilla

What’s happened: Early this morning Israeli naval forces took control of the British-flagged yacht Madleen, operated by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, which was attempting to breach the naval blockade on Gaza.

The vessel, carrying 12 activists including Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg and French MEP Rima Hassan, was intercepted without incident, and no injuries were reported.
The Israeli Foreign Ministry confirmed the passengers were unharmed, provided with food and water, and would be repatriated to their home countries. The Ministry dismissed the flotilla as a “media stunt” and emphasised that the small amount of aid aboard would be delivered through authorised humanitarian channels.
Israel has questioned the intentions of the Flotilla. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Oren Marmorstein told Army Radio this morning, “We successfully conveyed to the world its true character. This was a provocation. This was a gimmick. We called it the ‘selfies yacht.’ I think that caught on because, first of all, that’s what it is. They were busy 24-hour-a-day filming themselves. You use the gimmick for your own purposes to show that this was a PR stunt, a media gimmick, and not a genuine humanitarian effort.”
Over the weekend, the remains of Nattapong Pinta, a Thai hostage were recovered. He was kidnapped alive from Nir Oz and murdered in captivity.
Meanwhile IDF ground operations continue to expand simultaneously across Gaza. Hamas has responded with guerilla tactics, primarily planting explosives, with once more fatal consequences that killed four more soldiers on Friday.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) resumed its aid distribution on Sunday, following a pause caused by threats from Hamas.
Israeli security correspondents were invited by the IDF to visit the Hamas tunnel network beneath the European Hospital in Khan Yunis in which Muhammed Sinwar and others were eliminated in an air strike in 13th May. They described a tunnel seven meters deep and several hundred meters long with multiple entry and exit points, living quarters, and even a shelter suitable for wartime. It is thought that in order to protect themselves, Sinwar and other senior Hamas members stayed close to hostages, intending for them to serve as human shields.

Context: The recent soldiers’ deaths – eight in the last week – have reignited the domestic Israeli debate over the efficacy and moral calculus of the “military pressure doctrine.” Twenty soldiers have now fallen in the latest offensive.

The recovery of the bodies is a stark reminder that 41 hostages believed alive at the time of capture have since been murdered or killed whilst in captivity.
This once more underscores the limits of purely military options. There has long been a fear that hostages are endangered by the proximity of IDF manoeuvres, and daring raids to release living hostages have had only limited success.
The return of the body of Pinta follows the recovery of the bodies of Gadi Haggai and his wife Judy Weinstein-Haggai (who were killed on 7th October) at the end of last week in the Khan Yunis area in southern Gaza. Their bodies had been held by a small splinter organisation, the Mujahideen Battalions.
Established in 2006 with a strict Salafi Islamist orientation, the Mujahideen Battalions receive funding and support from Iran, and were also responsible for the murder of the Bibas family. The group is thought to hold at least one additional body of a foreign national.
On Saturday, Israeli forces killed two senior commanders of Mujahideen Brigades in separate air strikes in Gaza City. As’ad Abu Sharaiya, the group’s leader, and senior field commander Mahmoud Muhammad Hamid Kuhail, were directly involved in the deadly attacks on Kibbutz Nir Am on 7^th October.
The latest operation still leaves 55 hostages inside Gaza for 612 days with the current assessment that 20 remain alive. Over the weekend Hamas released a photo of Matan Zangauker which served both as proof of life and as psychological warfare. His mother Einav, of the most prominent campaigners for a hostage deal, once more addressed the rally on Saturday night accusing Prime Minister Netanyahu of “sacrificing the hostages.”
According to COGAT, throughout last week 350 trucks belonging to the UN, carrying flour and other food, entered into Gaza. According to GHF, on Friday alone, they distributed 471,240 meals through 8,160 food parcels.
Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza has been affirmed as legal under international law by the 2011 UN Palmer Report, which concluded that the blockade was a legitimate security measure to prevent weapons smuggling into Gaza by sea.
The IDF is continuing to pursue its multi-objective offensive:
- Destroy Hamas infrastructure, focused on tunnels, weapons caches, and command and control centres.
- Controlling more territory and capturing “assets” like the body of Muhammad Sinwar to improve their bargaining position and increase the pressure on Hamas.
- Undermining Hamas’s grip on aid distribution as well promoting even supporting rival local actors. The latter has been heavily criticised.
In light of this, some Israeli analysts have called for the return of the Palestinian Authority to both be part of the mechanism to deliver aid and be part of the post-war governance.
Meanwhile, recent Hamas document discovered in Gaza indicate the level of financial assistance, and cooperation between Hamas and Qatar. The documents suggest that Qatar has been actively involved in Hamas’s strategic decisions, including attempts to undermine regional peace efforts.

Looking ahead: Concern remains that, with US attention elsewhere, not enough pressure is being applied on Qatar and Hamas to renew hostage negotiations.

With no further talks currently planned, Israel is waiting for US envoy Witkoff to return to the region and reconvene talks. In their absence the IDF operation is set to continue.

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