Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated May 19, 2026

Hamas leader eliminated amid Gaza stalemate

What’s happened: Over the weekend the IDF eliminated Ez al-Dine al-Haddad, Hamas’s military wing commander and one of the last surviving architects of the October 7 massacre.

Israel says Haddad was responsible for the treatment of the hostages, used some of them as human shields, and was working to rebuild Hamas’s military capabilities and plan attacks.
In response to al-Haddad’s death, and as a reaction to the Knesset’s new law on the death penalty for convicted terrorist murderers, the IDF is warning that Hamas has instructed its operatives in the Gaza Strip to prepare to kidnap IDF soldiers. The instructions were issued by means of an internal memo that Hamas’s leadership disseminated among its ranks.
The Israel Navy continued overnight to intercept the latest Gaza bound flotilla. As of last night, IDF naval commandos had reportedly intercepted more than 30 of the 57 vessels that set sail from Turkey. Roughly 250 activists were arrested.
According to the Israeli Foreign Ministry, no humanitarian aid has so far been found on board any of the vessels.
The Foreign Ministry wrote on X, “The purpose of this provocation is to serve Hamas, to divert attention from Hamas’s refusal to disarm, and to obstruct progress on President Trump’s peace plan. As the Board of Peace—which oversees humanitarian activities in Gaza under UNSC Resolution 2803—made clear: this flotilla is only about publicity. The Gaza Strip is flooded with aid. Since October 2025 alone, more than 1.58 million tons of humanitarian aid and thousands of tons of medical supplies have entered Gaza. Israel will not allow any breach of the lawful naval blockade on Gaza. Israel calls on all participants in this provocation to change course and turn back immediately.”

Context: This latest targeted strike against Hamas’s leadership is being presented in Israel as another significant operational success, but not a strategic game changer.

Haddad’s death removes a senior figure who combined combat experience, organisational authority, and symbolic weight inside Hamas’s war structure. Haddad was Hamas’s fourth military commander since October 7. He follows:
- Mohammed Deif, the long-time commander of Hamas’s military wing who was eliminated by Israel in July 2024.
- Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy and a senior military commander, who was eliminated by Israel in March 2024.
- Mohammad Sinwar (Yahya Sinwar’s brother) and a senior military figure, was eliminated in May 2025.
- The overall leader Yahya Sinwar himself was eliminated by Israel in October 2024.
Despite these tactical achievements, military planners are wary of Hamas’s ability to regenerate leadership. According to Arab media, Haddad will be replaced by his close associate Mohammad Odeh. Odeh was apparently offered the role after the elimination of Mohammad Sinwar, but he declined, and Haddad took it on instead.
Odeh served as the head of Hamas’s intelligence headquarters. He is considered the natural successor, being the most senior figure in Hamas’s military wing and the last core member of Hamas’s military council who took part in planning and executing the October 7 massacre – including the significant intelligence gathering on Israel and IDF bases in the home front, which served as the basis for the operation.
Odeh was born in the Jabaliya refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip and served as commander of Hamas’s northern brigade from 2017-2019. Odeh has already survived several assassination attempts, including during the war.
Meanwhile, Hamas has reportedly been blocking reconstruction activity in Gaza, including preventing contractors from working on a planned new Palestinian city in Rafah. A group of Palestinian contractors were recently held up at gunpoint by Hamas and prevented from crossing into the Israel-controlled sector, despite the work having been coordinated by the CMCC and the Board of Peace.
It has been widely speculated that Hamas views any reconstruction, particularly outside its zone of control, as a threat to its continued rule in the Strip. The move comes against the backdrop of new polling data indicating a dramatic drop in Gazans’ support for Hamas.
Despite international hopes to start the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip, the Trump plan remains frozen as Hamas refuses to give up its weapons and demilitarise.
It is now over half a year since the deadline for Hamas’s disarmament passed. Israel has changed its deployment in the Strip by establishing an “orange line,” which has expanded the size of the Israeli security zone in the enclave by an additional 34 square km. The IDF now controls 64 per cent of the territory. This move was taken with the knowledge and apparent approval of the Board of Peace after it became evident that Hamas had violated its commitment and had failed to meet the timetable for its disarmament.
Israel decided to deploy the IDF along the “orange line” after talks, led by Egypt and Turkey over the last 6 months regarding Hamas demilitarisation, have broken down. According to assessments the Palestinian “technocratic government” continues to face significant challenges in establishing its rule and authority in Gaza.
According to the Israel’s Coordination for Government Activity in the Territories (COGAT), aid continues to flow into Gaza at a rate of 600 trucks a day. In addition to food and sanitation supplies, 440 tons of medical equipment entered Gaza last week.
Similar to the flotilla that was intercepted three weeks ago the latest interception is part of a broader effort to enforce the UN backed maritime control around Gaza.

Looking ahead: There are more flotilla vessels still at sea, of greatest concern are larger boats from two Turkish organisations, Mavi Marmara and IHH. IHH is a designated as a terrorist organisation so the IDF will be taking extra precautions given the troops might be met with resistance.

A regional consensus exists that serious reconstruction in Gaza cannot take place while Hamas remains an armed force with residual sovereignty. Gulf states and Saudi Arabia are unlikely to invest heavily in Gaza only for the same infrastructure to be destroyed again in a few years. That makes Hamas’s military dismantling not just an Israeli demand but a prerequisite for regional partners.
Whilst Israel and its international partners continue to explore how to implement the post-war framework, including demilitarisation, transitional technocratic governance, and an international stabilisation force, there is still no agreed mechanism for removing Hamas’s military power.
Israeli reports suggest Hamas is rebuilding its military capacity by producing improvised explosive devices, mortar shells and anti-tank rockets, gathering intelligence on IDF deployments and training inside Gaza despite the Israeli presence.

May 12, 2026

New report highlights sexual terror on October 7

What’s happened: A new report by the Civil Commission provides the most detailed account to date of sexual and gender-based violence committed during the 7 October 2023 attacks and in subsequent hostage captivity.

The report concludes that such violence was not incidental but systematic, organised, and integral to the assault.
Based on a two-year independent investigation and a purpose-built war crimes archive, the report documents patterns of abuse across multiple locations and phases, from the initial attacks to prolonged captivity in Gaza, supported by extensive testimonial, visual, and forensic evidence.
Drawing on over 1,800 hours of footage, more than 10,000 images, and over 430 testimonies, the Commission identifies 13 recurring forms of sexual violence, including rape, sexual torture, mutilation, forced nudity, and abuse carried out in front of family members. It also highlights what it terms “kinocidal sexual violence”, acts designed to destroy family structures through coercion and humiliation within familial settings. Victims span 52 nationalities, underscoring the international dimension of the crimes.
Dr. Cochav Elkayam-Levy, who headed the commission, told Army Radio this morning: “This was one of the worst, darkest and brutal crimes humanity has ever seen. The report effectively proves that sexual violence was a systematic strategy. It [the report] has been disseminated to hundreds around the world and has been endorsed by senior jurists.”
A distinctive feature of the findings is the role of digital dissemination. Perpetrators recorded and circulated sexualised violence via social media and direct messaging, including to victims’ families, amplifying psychological harm and extending the impact beyond the immediate acts.
The report argues that this transforms such acts into continuing crimes, with enduring consequences for victims and their rehabilitation.
The Commission concludes that the scale, coordination, and repetition of these acts meet the legal thresholds for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocidal acts. It frames the report as both an evidentiary archive and a legal roadmap, intended to support future prosecutions and counter denial.
The full report is available here.
In parallel, on Monday, the Knesset passed, with 93 votes in favour and none opposed a law establishing a special military tribunal to prosecute approximately 300 captured perpetrators of the 7 October attacks.
The tribunal will be empowered to try defendants on charges including genocide, terrorism, and offences against state sovereignty, with potential capital punishment for the most serious crimes.

Context: The Civil Commission was founded following Hamas’s brutal October 7, 2023 attack, which left over 1,200 dead and more than 250 kidnapped. In response to the widespread murder, torture, rape, and abduction and ensuing denial, this independent non-profit was established to document, research, and raise global awareness of the war crimes and gender-based violence committed by Hamas and its collaborators. Led by human rights and international law expert Dr. Cochav Elkayam-Levy, the 2024 Israel Prize laureate, the Commission works to amplify victims’ voices and confront denial.

Previous documentation of 7 October atrocities established the occurrence of sexual violence; this report seeks to demonstrate pattern, intent, and systematisation. By identifying recurring “modes of operation,” it strengthens the argument that such acts were not opportunistic but formed part of a broader strategy of terror. This distinction is central in international law, where proving systematic conduct can elevate crimes to the level of crimes against humanity or genocide.
The introduction of “kinocidal sexual violence” is also notable. While not yet a recognised legal category, it attempts to capture a specific dimension of the violence, targeting familial bonds as a means of collective destruction. If taken up in legal or academic discourse, it could influence how conflict-related sexual violence is conceptualised in future cases.
The emphasis on digital dissemination reflects an evolution in the character of mass violence. The weaponisation of visibility, through filming, livestreaming, and direct messaging, extends harm temporally and geographically, blurring the line between physical and psychological warfare. This aspect may complicate legal accountability, particularly regarding those who facilitated or amplified dissemination rather than directly perpetrating violence.
The parallel move by the Knesset to establish a special tribunal suggests an effort to translate documentation into judicial outcomes. The tribunal’s design, dedicated infrastructure, mixed judicial panels, and public proceedings, indicates recognition of the scale and complexity of the caseload. It also reflects a desire to create a historically visible process, potentially analogous in intent (if not structure) to past war crimes tribunals.
Under the new law, the tribunal will be able to charge the assailants with all relevant crimes, including genocide under the terms of Israel’s 1950 Law for the Prevention of Genocide, harming Israeli sovereignty, causing war, assisting an enemy during a time of war, and terror charges under Israel’s 2016 law for combating terrorism.
The law was also a rare consensual issue uniting both government and opposition.
Taken together, the report and the tribunal legislation signal an emerging phase focused on legal codification and historical record-building.

Looking ahead: Families of victims and survivors continue to call for a state commission of enquiry to fully investigate the events of October 7.

The law calls for the establishment of a dedicated judicial compound and a staff of around 400 soldiers as well as civilian staffers and 15 judges. The judges would come from the Supreme Court or government approved international jurists.
An individual case would be heard by three judges, while a five-judge panel would hear proceedings involving multiple defendants. Appeals would be heard by all 15 judges.
Proceedings are expected to be public and broadcast, reflecting an effort to combine judicial process with public documentation and transparency.

April 30, 2026

Latest Gaza bound flotilla intercepted

What’s happened: Overnight, IDF troops began to intercept the pro-Palestinian flotilla to Gaza. The operation was carried out near Crete, hundreds of kilometres from the Israeli coast.

According to Israeli officials there is no shortage of aid in Gaza, with around 600 trucks entering Gaza daily since the October 2025 hostage release and ceasefire. Since then more than 1.5 million tons of humanitarian aid and thousands of tonnes of medical equipment has entered the strip.
This was the first stage of interceptions which focused on the 20 larger vessels holding one hundred seventy-five activists. No unusual incidents, violence or injuries were reported. There are still around 40 smaller vessels that are still sailing towards Israel that are expected to be stopped too. In addition, another flotilla of dozens of vessels is expected to set sail from Turkey soon.
Activist Greta Thunberg was involved in the organisation but reportedly stepped down from her steering role in mid-September 2025 and was not listed among the participants aboard the vessels intercepted
The flotilla comprises roughly 100 vessels that have around 1,000 activists from across the world on board. In the initial stage of the operation, the Israel Navy contacted the vessels participating in the flotilla over the radio and informed them that any effort to breach the maritime security blockade on the Gaza Strip was a violation of international law.
An Israel Navy officer declared in English, “Please change your course and return to your port of origin. If you are carrying humanitarian aid, you are invited to proceed to the port of Ashdod.” The aid will undergo a security inspection, after which it will be delivered to the Gaza Strip, added the officer.
“You are required to change your course,” the message continued, “Any further attempt to sail toward Gaza places your safety at risk and leaves the IDF no choice but to take all necessary measures at its disposal to enforce a lawful maritime security blockade. It is dangerous to remain on your current course. If you continue your attempt to breach the maritime blockade, we will stop your vessel and act to seize it through legal proceedings in court. You bear full responsibility for your actions.”
Earlier on Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu cut short his testimony in his ongoing corruption trial, saying he had to attend a meeting at the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv. It later emerged that the meeting concerned the flotilla.
The flotilla, called the “Global Sumud Flotilla” by its organisers, say their goal is to break the naval blockade of Gaza, but was also part of “a broad global movement at sea and on land” working to dismantle systems that enable “apartheid, occupation, ethnic cleansing and genocide.”
Israel’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday evening that “the driving force behind the flotilla provocation is Hamas – joining hands with professional provocateurs – with the aim of sabotaging President Trump’s peace plan transition to its second phase and intended to divert attention from Hamas’s refusal to disarm….Like previous provocations, this is nothing but a PR stunt: a provocation without humanitarian aid…As international media have exposed, these are professional provocateurs on pleasure cruises, addicted to self-promotion.”
Beyond the legal and security questions surrounding the flotilla, its organisers have also faced uncomfortable scrutiny over allegations of sexual misconduct involving one of its senior figures.
Following the interceptions, Israel’s Foreign Ministry posted on X video footage of drugs and contraceptives that were found on board one of the boats and wrote: “This is the ‘medical aid’ found aboard the PR stunt flotilla: condoms and drugs.” They later posted activists doing cartwheels and “enjoying themselves” on board an Israeli naval vessel.

February 18, 2026

Ramadan begins amid disarmament disputes on every front

What’s happening: The beginning of Ramadan sees a tense quiet on all fronts.

In Jerusalem, thousands of police officers are in the streets as tens of thousands of worshippers are expected to make their way to the Al Aqsa Mosque in the Old City, especially on Fridays.
The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) announced that Israel would grant permits to 10,000 West Bank Palestinians to enter Jerusalem for Friday prayers at the Al‑Aqsa Mosque compound. Similar to last year, only males aged 55 and above, women 50 and above, and children 12 and below when accompanied by a first-degree relative will be allowed entry.
In the West Bank, the IDF and Border Patrol have deployed special forces to deal with the increased tensions.
British Prime Minister Starmer spoke to US President Trump last night about negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the situation in Gaza.
It comes as Iran claimed to have come to a “general understanding” with the US on the range of topics under negotiation, despite there being no confirmation of this from US officials. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is leading the Iranian delegation in Geneva, told Iranian state media there had been “positive progress” in discussions on sanctions and nuclear programme.
On a Fox News interview yesterday, Vice President JD Vance described the recent talks with Iran as “in some ways… went well” but noted that the Islamic Republic remains unwilling to accept some of President Trump’s nuclear red lines. “Our primary interest here is we don’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. We don’t want nuclear proliferation,” Vance said, adding that the US would very much like to resolve this through a conversation and a diplomatic negotiation, but all options are on the table.
Also yesterday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei warned President Trump that the Islamic Republic cannot be overthrown.
Iran’s proxy force in Lebanon, Hezbollah, rejected the Lebanese government’s plan to continue the next stage of the disarmament which it accepted as a condition for the ceasefire that has been in place since November 2024.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem said in a speech on Monday that “what the Lebanese government is doing by focusing on disarmament is a major mistake because this issue serves the goals of Israeli aggression,” while Shia ministers walked out of Monday’s cabinet session in protest.

Context: All three ceasefires from the past year – in Lebanon, Iran, and Gaza – are stuck on one form or another on the issue of disarmament.

Despite public optimism from both Iranian and US officials about negotiations underway in Geneva, Israeli observers remain sceptical that any agreement can be reached and Israel continues to prepare for a US operation in Iran.
Iranian and US negotiators have not come to an agreement on shipping Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium out of the country, and the Iranians reject any limitations on the range of their ballistic missiles as “illogical,” in the words of the Supreme Leader Khamenei.
The Lebanese plan for disarming Hezbollah would see the Lebanese Armed Forces carry out a decommissioning of Hezbollah weapons in the area north of the Litani River and up to the Awali River, about 40 kilometres south of Beirut, over the next four months. This follows what the Lebanese claim is a successful decommissioning south of the Litani River and up to the border with Israel, though Israel disputes much of the Lebanese claim of successful disarmament there.
It is in Gaza, however, that the issue is most acute. Morocco, Albania, and Greece signalled yesterday that they could join Indonesia in contributing forces to the International Stabilisation Force, which is supposed to enforce the ceasefire in effect since October 2025. But none of these countries is preparing a force which can actively disarm Hamas.
With no path to Hamas disarmament, there is no guarantee that a renewal of combat is not in the offing. And as long as that is the case, it is unlikely any real investment in Gaza’s reconstruction will take place.

Looking ahead: Tomorrow in Washington the Board of Peace will hold its inaugural meeting with Israel represented by Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. The Board of Peace will have to formulate plans for reconstruction and disarmament, and it will have to lay out a mandate for the ISF. It will also likely formalise the role of the technocratic transitional government which has yet to enter Gaza.

The Iranian semi-official news agency Fars reported that Iran and Russia will conduct navy drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean tomorrow.

February 16, 2026

Israel presses full Hamas demilitarisation as PA seeks to enshrine ‘pay for slay’

What’s happening: Addressing the annual Conference of Presidents of Major American ⁠Jewish Organisations, Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday reiterated the importance he places on Hamas disarmament which meant that the group “must give up its weapons, not [just] its main weapons.”

Netanyahu elaborated that discussions around Hamas’s use of “heavy weapons” was disingenuous as there were practically none of them in Gaza.
Instead, he asserted that the priority for disarmament should be assault rifles, specifically AK-47s given their prominent usage in the 7th October attacks. He claimed that some 60,000 rifles were in Hamas’s hands, and had to “go outside” along with RPGs and rockets.
Netanyahu added that Israel has already dismantled 150 km of an estimated 500 km and still needs to “complete the job” of destroying Hamas’s remaining 350 kilometres of tunnels and any weapons factories.
The IDF alleges that Hamas continues to breach the ceasefire terms, including “an identification of several armed terrorists who took cover under debris east of the Yellow Line and adjacent to IDF troops, likely after exiting underground infrastructure in the area” in Beit Hanoun yesterday.
The Israeli Air Force has since confirmed that in airstrikes across Gaza it struck a terrorist that infiltrated Re’im military base on 7th October and a Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander.
Concurrently, the IDF has also increased the number of troops deployed in the West Bank in anticipation of tensions in the run-up to and during the festival of Ramadan which is expected to begin this week.

Context: Netanyahu’s comments come as the Trump Administration pushes to advance Phase 2 of the Trump Peace Plan for Gaza.

The administration continues to seemingly support the demilitarisation of Hamas, a key component of the plan. In a post on Truth Social yesterday, the President wrote that “Very importantly, Hamas must uphold its commitment to full and immediate demilitarisation.”
At the same time, the New York Times last week reported that the US is working on a proposal for the disarmament of Hamas that would allow Hamas to keep small arms it uses to maintain power in the Strip – those same arms that Netanyahu discussed in his own speech. According to the plan, Hamas would only be required to give up weapons that can be used to strike Israel, mainly rockets and launchers, in order for it be considered to have fulfilled its obligations.
Allowing Hamas to retain small arms would leave intact the key instruments it uses both to threaten Israel and to enforce its authoritarian rule over Gazans.
Another component of Phase Two, the international stabilisation force was given a boost yesterday with an announcement by Indonesia’s military yesterday that up to 8,000 troops are expected to be ready to deploy to Gaza. Spokesperson of the the Indonesian National Armed Forces Donny Pramono said “Our troops are fully prepared and can be dispatched at short notice once the government gives formal approval.”
Ramadan has been relatively quiet over the last two years in the West Bank, but has historically seen higher numbers of attempted terrorist attacks, often linked to access restrictions at Al Aqsa Mosque the Temple Mount.
This year concerns are amplified by the prospect of an imminent potential escalation between the US, Israel, and Iran in the event of nuclear negotiations breaking down, as well as very high levels of unemployment in the West Bank (29% compared to 13% pre-7/10).
Last week the President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority ordered the drafting of a new constitution.
Ostensibly released in draft form to “expand community participation in drafting”, it has been criticised for committing to preserve Jerusalem’s “religious character and protecting its Islamic and Christian sanctuaries” while omitting any mention of the city’s Jewish identity, history, or population.
Article XXIV also confirms that the Pay for Slay stipend scheme which financially rewards and incentivises terrorism against Israelis would continue, seemingly with a level of constitutional formalisation.
Article XVII calls for “free and fair periodic elections and transparency as a constitutional right and the basis of democratic representation and free power”, despite legislative elections repeatedly being suspended or postponed.
The PA’s intent to enshrine its ‘Pay for Slay’ stipend scheme in a supposedly ‘reformed’ constitution comes as a backlash to the UK government’s unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state this autumn. Sir Keir Starmer demanded that the PA abandon the scheme, but critics argued that recognition without conditions would only embolden both Hamas and the PA to pursue a more radical course.

Looking ahead: President Trump’s Board of Peace is due to hold its inaugural meeting next week, most likely on Thursday. Israel will be represented by its Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar.

This meeting is expected to prioritise funding Gaza’s reconstruction, and it is understood that all 28 member countries will be represented, some by their heads of state.
Trump has said that more than $5 billion has been pledged towards Gaza humanitarian and reconstruction efforts. It is hoped that the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait will make significant donations of $1.25 billion each, but Saudi Arabia has indicated that it must first consider Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza as well as Hamas’s disarmament before donating.

February 11, 2026

Netanyahu arrives to Washington

What’s happening: Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in Washington for a working meeting with President Trump in what will be their seventh meeting since Trump’s second term began, barely one year ago.

Prior to his departure, Netanyahu said the focus would primarily be on Gaza and Iran. Netanyahu announced that he would “present our views regarding the principles in the negotiations to the president – the important principles – and in my view, they are important not only to Israel, but to anyone who wants peace and security in the Middle East.”
Netanyahu will also reportedly share with Trump intelligence regarding Iranian efforts to develop ballistic missiles capable of reaching Europe and the United States as well.
Trump continues to broadcast optimism at the prospect of reaching a deal with Iran that could avert an armed confrontation. “We can make a great deal with Iran,” he told an interviewer yesterday, while Netanyahu was en route. Of Netanyahu, he said, “He also wants a deal. He wants a good deal.”
The US is reportedly working on a proposal for the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza that would allow Hamas to keep the small arms it uses to maintain power in the Strip. The US proposal, details of which were leaked to the New York Times while Netanyahu was on his way to Washington, would only require Hamas to give up weapons that can be used to strike Israel, mainly rockets and launchers, in order for it be considered to have fulfilled its obligations in Phase Two of the Comprehensive Plan which ended the war last October.

Context: Leaks in the Israeli media indicate that senior Israeli officials were alarmed at the prospect of Trump securing a deal with Iran that would be far below Israel’s minimum needs.

Israeli officials believe that Trump is under enormous pressure from his allies in Turkey and Qatar to accede to a deal that leave Iran with some enrichment capabilities and that would not set back its ballistic missile programme, a cause of acute concern in Jerusalem.
Iranian ballistic missiles caused significant damage to the Israeli home front in the Twelve Day War, and Israel believes that Iran has at least 2000 of them in its current stock and is rapidly developing the capabilities to manufacture many more.
For all the Israeli concern about an unsatisfactory deal, the consensus among local analysts and officials remains that ultimately the US will attack Iran. The Iranians have not thus far signalled any willingness to compromise even on the enrichment issue, much less the other American priorities (missiles, regional proxies, and the protest crackdown).
Trump, for his part, reminisced about the Iranian miscalculation that led to Operation Midnight Hammer last June in the same interview where he spoke of the prospects for an agreement. “Last time they didn’t believe I would do it,” he said of the US airstrike on three nuclear facilities. “They overplayed their hand.”
If the scenario reported by the New York Times about Gaza were to happen, Israel would face pressure to undertake its own commitments in Phase Two, including a significant territorial withdrawal from the position it holds along the Yellow Line today to a narrow buffer zone around the old Gaza-Israel border from before the war.
The Israeli understanding of the disarmament clause of the Comprehensive Plan includes not just offensive weapons, but also small arms and the massive tunnel infrastructure in Gaza as well.
It is unclear whether Hamas accepts even the more lenient American proposal for disarmament. Absent any kind of disarmament, it is unlikely Israel will carry out any further territorial withdrawals in Gaza.
There is, in such a scenario, even the possibility that Israeli will launch a new military offensive into central Gaza to carry out a forceful disarmament of Hamas, this time unhindered by consideration for the fate of hostages.

Looking ahead: At their meeting, Netanyahu is expected to formally invite Trump to Israel for this year’s Independence Day Festivities, which are to be held on April 21-22. Trump is already due to receive the prestigious Israel Prize, normally awarded only to Israeli citizens, in a ceremony that traditionally closes out the day’s official festivities. Netanyahu may reportedly also ask Trump to light a torch on Mount Herzl in the ceremony that usually opens the official festivities.

The political calendar may also be a consideration for this. With no compromise in the offing on the ultra-orthodox conscription bill, it is increasingly likely that parliament will be dissolved and early elections called. Elections are currently scheduled for October, when discussion will likely be dominated by the third anniversary of the October 7 invasion and massacre. But an early election would put Independence Day, and Trump’s festive visit as the Prime Minister’s guest, right at the peak of campaign season.

February 10, 2026

IDF confronts terrorists in Rafah, Syria and Lebanon

What’s happening: In Rafah, in the south of the Gaza Strip, four Hamas terrorists emerged from a tunnel and attacked IDF troops on the Israeli side of the Yellow Line. The soldiers returned fire and eliminated all four gunmen.

An IDF operation in Syria yesterday destroyed a weapons depot belonging to the al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya (Islamic Group) terror group. The IDF’s announcement of the operation noted that the depot was located thanks to precise intelligence on the group’s activities.
Earlier this week, an IDF operation in Lebanon resulted in the capture of a senior member of the terrorist organisation, known for its close links with both Hezbollah and the foreign operations of Hamas. When his capture was announced, he was described as a “high-quality intelligence target.”
Domestically, the Israeli political discussion is still dominated by reactions to the 55-page document released by the Prime Minister last week which spelled out his actions and statements in the lead-up to Hamas’s October 7 attack. The document included many quotes from Cabinet protocols that cast Netanyahu in a flattering light and portray him as alert to the Hamas threat while being stymied at every step by the security establishment.
Critics, including opposition politicians and former security officials, pushed back on the claims in the document and pointed to many places where context was missing that apparently changed the entire import of the quotes statements attributed both to the Prime Minister and senior security officials. Benny Gantz called it a “rewriting of history,” while Yair Lapid called it a “falsification of security protocols in an official document issued by the Prime Minister’s Office, in a way that must have been intentional.”
The Israeli cabinet approved measures pushed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to broaden Israel’s civil powers in the West Bank, notably on property, planning, and the management of two holy sites. The measures are technical, but their impact could be broad, making it much easier for Israeli citizens to purchase property from Palestinians in the West Bank.
The Trump Administration did not directly condemn this move, but it did issue a statement reiterating that “President Trump has clearly stated that he does not support Israel annexing the West Bank.”

Context: Dozens of Hamas fighters are suspected to still be hiding out in tunnels on the Israeli side of the line, and incidents such as this one have become a regular occurrence since the ceasefire went into effect last October.

The al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya organisation has been operating in Lebanon and Syria since the 1980s in cooperation with other larger terrorist organisations. Its independent standing was not affected by the ceasefires agreed to by Hezbollah in 2024 and Hamas in 2025.
Al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya is, like Hamas, a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate. Following leadership changes in 2022, the Lebanese branch pursued a closer alliance with Hamas and Hezbollah, setting aside past differences to focus on fighting Israel.
The decisions made on the West Bank don’t change the legal status of any territory and don’t herald any dramatic demographic changes either. They are all minor legal changes that grant more civil powers to Israel, rather than leaving the territory to be governed as an occupied territory by the IDF.
The changes are technical and may not withstand challenges in Israeli courts. But taken together, they could dramatically alter the balance of power in the territory between the IDF, the Palestinian Authority, and the civilian aspects of the West Bank settler enterprise.
- One notable change is to open up property registries. These have been mostly sealed for decades. Making them available to the public could make it easier to locate absentee property holders to offer to buy land from.
- A second change repeals a Jordanian ban on land sales that made it effectively illegal for a Palestinian in the West Bank to sell any property to an Israeli.
- A third change broadens the powers of Civil Administration planning authorities to parts of the West Bank that lie outside Israeli settlements.
- A fourth change establishes new authorities under Israeli control for the management of two holy sites, Rachel’s Tomb on the outskirts of Bethlehem and the Tomb of the Patriarchs in Hebron.
In the background of this decision are two major political weaknesses. First, the party of Bezalel Smotrich, the Minister most associated with this decision, is polling at or below the electoral threshold. And secondly, the settler movement itself has not been able to bring more Israelis to move from Israel into the West Bank. Nearly all of the population growth of Israelis in the West Bank has been confined to three ultra-orthodox settlements right on the Green Line, with negative net migration for many of the remaining 120 or so settlements deeper in the territory.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu leaves for Washington today for private talks with President Trump about the Iran situation. Contrary to earlier reports, he will not be taking with him a delegation of senior military and security officials. Unlike previous trips to the White House, this one is designated as a closed meeting, and there are no scheduled public events or media availabilities.

While it is likely that Iran will be the main focus of talks, we might as well expect that Netanyahu and Trump will touch on other issues such as the situation in Lebanon and reconstruction of Gaza.
There is still no date for the beginning of operations for Gaza “technocratic” governance committee, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). This is despite reports that it might be entering the Strip this coming week.
It was reported yesterday that up to 8000 soldiers from Indonesia could be headed to Gaza as part of the International Stabilisation Force (ISF). This is the first major commitment of manpower to the ISF, though here too there was no date given for when the operation would be underway. Indonesia does not have diplomatic relations with Israel.

February 2, 2026

The Rafah Crossing opens

What’s happened: The Rafah Crossing opened on Sunday for a final set of technical tests and a limited number of pedestrians are expected to cross the border today.

The crossing will be operated by Egypt, with European Union oversight and approved Palestinian officials. According to the agreement, the Egyptians are expected to share details of those crossing in advance with Israel. Outgoing Gazans will not undergo Israeli security checks, but those entering the Strip will be required to pass through an IDF inspection point. Everyone who enters the Strip will be taken by bus to an Israeli inspection point, where they will undergo physical inspection and facial recognition software will be used to verify their identity.
At this initial stage 150 people will leave Gaza daily, 50 people who require medical treatment, plus two companions. 50 Gazans (who left during the war) will be allowed to return to Gaza daily.
Over the weekend the Israeli Air Force carried out a series of air strikes against Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad targets.
The strikes came in response to several incidents of ceasefire violations including an attempted attack by Hamas terrorists on IDF soldiers in the Rafah area and other incidents along the yellow line.
The upturn in violence began on Thursday evening when eight heavily armed Nukhba Force terrorists emerged from a tunnel in eastern Rafah into an area that is controlled by the IDF. IDF observers spotted the terrorists in real-time and called in a strike. At least three terrorists were eliminated, and others appear to have been wounded. Two Hamas commanders were captured. One was captured by the IDF and the other by members of the Abu Shabab militia. According to the IDF, the apprehended terrorist is a key commander in Hamas’ Eastern Rafah Battalion.
The targets that were struck included a Hamas police station in central Gaza and a Hamas outpost in Al-Mawasi. The IDF also attacked an arms storehouse, an arms production site and two rocket launching sites in the central Gaza Strip. Among the targets were four commanders from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Hamas sources in the Strip reported that at least 31 people were killed in the strikes.
The IDF released a statement noting, “The terrorist organisations in the Strip have been systematically violating international law amid the cruel exploitation of civilian institutions and by acting among the [civilian] population in the area.”

Context: The airstrikes over the week were the most intense since the ceasefire came into effect 3 months ago. The intensity is both a factor of continued Hamas violations and the IDF’s new found freedom of action in no longer having to factor in the status of any hostages.

Hamas has been using guerrilla tactics in a bid to challenge Israel and to inflict casualties among the IDF troops deployed in the area of the yellow line. The string of incidents in recent days appears to illustrate that Hamas has no intention of giving up its weapons and that its operatives remain motivated to fight and to attack the IDF.
The Hamas police station targeted represents a deliberate strike on a symbol of Hamas control over their side of the Strip, and points to a wider concern that whilst no disarmament is taking place, Hamas are in fact rehabilitating their forces and reinforcing their control.
There is domestic criticism in Israel that the opening of the Rafah Crossing before Hamas’ disarmament and the demilitarisation of the Strip is a failure of the Israeli Government policy. This adds to what is perceived as a wider failure – the internationalisation of the ‘day after’ – that might lead to a situation where Israel no longer has complete freedom of action.
The government argues that not only does it maintain complete freedom of action, but the new mechanism at the Civil Military Coordination Center allows Israel to share intel with the international partners and ensure a degree of transparency over Hamas violations and subsequent Israeli actions that has never happened before.
Longer term, Israel is insisting that the Philadelphi Corridor, that separates Gaza from Sinai, will remain in Israeli control even after further withdrawals from the yellow line. This is viewed by government supporters as a major achievement.
The opening of Rafah Crossing constitutes the first time since the 2005 Gaza Disengagement that Israel has formal oversight of the Gaza-Egypt border. Since then, the Rafah Crossing and the Philadelphi Corridor were the main source of Hamas income (through taxation) and smuggling of weapons both through the Egyptian border crossing and through their tunnels network.
Last week COGAT revealed the extent of aid entering Gaza over the last three months. This has included over 60,000 aid trucks, 900,000 tons of food, 9,600 tons of medical equipment and around 610,000 tents.

Looking ahead: With the reopening of Rafah, the Palestinian technocratic body, known as the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) led by Ali Shaath, is soon expected to enter Gaza.

If the monitoring mechanism at the Rafah Crossing will be successful, it will expand its operations.

January 27, 2026

Last hostage returned home

What’s happened: The body of Ran Gvili, the 24-year-old police sergeant who set out on October 7 to protect Israel from the Hamas invaders and fell in the successful defence of Kibbutz Alumim, was returned to Israel yesterday.

Gvili’s was the last Israeli hostage remaining in Gaza out of 251 who were abducted on October 7, together with another four, two living and two dead, held there before the massacre. With Gvili’s return, there are officially no Israeli hostages in Gaza — the first time this has been the case in fourteen years.
The discovery and recovery of Gvili’s body was the culmination of a complicated intelligence and forensic operation. His abductors had moved and reburied his body. Ultimately, the IDF was able to focus on a Muslim cemetery in the northern Gaza Strip. In Operation Brave Heart, soldiers recovered remains and inspected dental findings until a possible match for Gvili was found and brought back to Israel where a positive identification was confirmed.
Speaking at the Second International Conference on Combating Antisemitism, Prime Minister Netanyahu hailed the formal end of the hostage crisis: “Rani Gvili, from the special unit in the police who fought not only with a broken arm, he was shot twice, and he kept fighting, and he killed fourteen terrorists alone. And then he died. And we said we’d bring him back. He was the first to come in. He’s the last to leave, a hero of Israel. Rani is back. There are no more hostages in Gaza. Tremendous achievement for our heroic forces, our soldiers, our commanders, none like them.”
President Herzog also described his relief at the news at an event at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem with US Ambassador Mike Huckabee. “Finally, 834 days later, Staff Sgt. Ran Gvili, who ran at first call to the front lines to save others, has come home: home to his country, home to his family, home at last. An entire nation is breathing an enormous sigh of relief tonight, as all of our hearts are with Ran’s family—especially his parents, Talik and Itzik—who fought heroically and with remarkable courage to bring their son home.”
Huckabee, too, spoke at the event, and referenced the ubiquitous yellow hostage pin which many Israelis and supporters of Israel had worn on their lapels since October 7. ““It is an extraordinary privilege to take this pin, to remove it from my lapel,” he said. “I have said on many occasions, since I was posted here as ambassador, that the happiest day of my tenure was going to be the day when I could remove this pin, because it meant that the last hostage would have been freed and home with his family.”

Context: The return of the last deceased hostage definitively puts an end to the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire, which has been in effect since last October.

The first major achievement of the second phase will be the partial reopening of the Rafah Crossing between Gaza and Egypt later this week. The crossing will be open to two-way traffic of people only (not vehicles). European and Palestinian officials will be on site, and those passing through will receive a Palestinian Authority stamp on their passports. Egyptian officials will pass to Israeli officials a complete list of all those passing through ahead of time, and only those approved by Israel will be allowed to cross into or out of Gaza. Israel will remotely inspect the crossing. The mix of Egyptian, European, Israeli, and Palestinian actors strongly resembles the Movement and Access arrangement that was briefly in place for the crossing’s operation between 2005 and 2007, following Israel’s withdrawal from the Strip and before the coup which put Hamas in control of territory enclave.
The second phase of the ceasefire stipulates not only the reopening of the Rafah Crossing, but also several other significant measures, including Hamas disarmament, a technocratic Palestinian transitional government in Gaza, the deployment of a multinational force inside the Strip, and a further Israeli territorial withdrawal.
Today, the IDF controls roughly 53% of the Gaza Strip, with the so-called Yellow Line separating the Israeli-held zone from the roughly half of the Strip still under Hamas control, where the overwhelming majority of Gaza’s civilians are concentrated. The second phase of the ceasefire, if fully implemented, would see the IDF leave much of the territory it currently hold, but not return to the pre-war border. Instead, the IDF would hold a perimeter zone inside the Strip with a depth of about 1 km.
Before that could happen, the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip would need to be effected. Israeli officials remain very pessimistic about the prospects of this happening peacefully, though US and other international actors in the region believe that with the right mix of pressures and incentives, the Strip’s technocratic governance committee can force Hamas to turn over its weapons.
A senior American official quoted anonymously in Israeli media yesterday said that the US would “make sure to enforce the agreement. Hamas has no choice but to disarm. They signed the agreement. We’ll work to see that happen, and if they decide to play games, Trump will take the necessary measures.”
Unspoken in these assessments is the assumption that what held the IDF back from fully conquering the Strip and destroying Hamas during two years of war was concern about the fate of the hostages Hamas was holding. With no more hostages of any kind in Hamas’ possession, there is nothing to stop the IDF from destroying what remains of Hamas military capabilities should the ceasefire collapse and combat resume.
Reconstruction is also supposed to begin in the second phase of the ceasefire, with initial efforts focused on the southernmost sections of the Strip in Rafah and Khan Younis. The US and Israel have agreed that Israel would be responsible for removing the rubble from these areas, reportedly so that unexploded ordnance could not fall into Hamas hands and be repurposed for offensive capabilities.

Looking ahead: The US and Egypt are expected to announce the formal appointment of a Reconstruction Committee sometime in the next two weeks. This is in line with US efforts to begin some limited reconstruction early in the second phase, especially in more peripheral areas of the Strip, including those parts currently on the Israeli side of the Yellow Line. Israel is opposed to any large scale reconstruction beginning before the full disarmament of Hamas is achieved.

Parallel to the US-Egypt understandings on reconstruction, the US is reportedly drafting a document to be submitted to Israel on the issue of disarmament.
According to Israeli media reports, the document will stipulate that Hamas will have a set number of weeks to disarm, and that if the terrorist organisation fails to meet the deadline, Israel have a free hand to act militarily.
A firm commitment from the US on disarmament and an explicit support for Israeli action to back it up is intended, from the US perspective, to secure Israeli flexibility on the issue of early reconstruction.

January 26, 2026

Israel’s security cabinet agrees to reopen the Rafah Crossing

What’s happened: The security cabinet convened on Sunday night and according to the Prime Minister’s Office agreed to a “limited reopening of the Rafah Crossing for pedestrian passage only, subject to a full Israeli inspection mechanism.”

The statement added that, “The reopening of the crossing was conditioned upon the return of all living hostages and a 100% effort by Hamas to locate and return all deceased hostages.”
“The IDF is currently conducting a focused operation to exhaust all of the intelligence that has been gathered in the effort to locate and return the fallen hostage, Master-Sgt. Ran Gvili… Upon completion of this operation, and in accordance with what has been agreed upon with the US, Israel will open the Rafah Crossing.”
Searches for Gvili’s body, dubbed Operation Brave Heart, began at the end of last week based on recently refined intelligence, and are focused on a cemetery in Gaza City. There are hundreds of bodies buried in the cemetery, and the troops are opening the graves one by one and reviewing their contents. The troops are conducting meticulous searches using mobile X-ray machines to check dental x-rays, as there are no available fingerprints. After that, DNA tests will be conducted.
Also over the weekend, US CENTCOM Commander Admiral Cooper met with Chief of Staff Zamir to discuss coordinating the defence for Israel in the event of an American attack on Iran that prompts Iranian missile fire.

Context: The decision to open the Rafah Crossing follows pressure by the US mediators Witkoff and Kushner who met with senior Israeli leaders over the weekend to push for the continued implementation of President Trump’s 20-point plan.

According to the Trump plan, Gvili’s body is supposed to be returned to Israel before proceeding to the second stage of the ceasefire agreement.
As it currently stands, it appears that even if Gvili’s body is not found, the Rafah crossing will be reopened as a result of strong US pressure in a bid to begin the second stage.
Despite pushback from the Egyptians, Israel insists on retaining the ability to remotely monitor the crossing via cameras. The border itself is expected to be supervised by a European team. In addition, due to Israel maintaining control of the yellow line, all the traffic will pass through an area under Israeli control.
Israel is most concerned over attempts to use the crossing to smuggle weapons as well as preventing Hamas terrorists who previously left Gaza from returning to the Strip. Israel is willing to allow anyone to leave who has an invitation or a visa to a third country or for humanitarian and medical cases, and will only insist on inspecting those who enter Gaza from Egypt. The Egyptians are concerned that masses will try to leave and remain in Egypt, whilst they want unlimited access for those that want to return to Gaza.
Only those whose names are submitted to Israel by the Egyptians and go through security vetting will be able to cross into Gaza. It is estimated that 42,000 Palestinians left Gaza since the start of the war although not all will want to return.
Despite optimism in some quarters following the grand unveiling of the Board of Peace at Davos last week, Israel remains concerned that Hamas will seek to integrate itself into the technocratic administrative committee led by Ali Shaath. Both Israel and the Palestinian Authority are wary of Hamas and are strongly opposed to this.
Israel believes that Hamas is trying to integrate into Gaza’s future security framework without truly disarming which would create a “Hezbollah model” in Gaza. Although politically unpopular within the right wing government, it may prefer concessions to the PA over Hamas rule or renewed war. The US denies agreeing to let Hamas retain political power or integrate into Gaza’s security forces, although Arab diplomats have suggested that in negotiations Hamas has vowed not to disarm without concessions.
The technocratic committee meant to govern Gaza lacks real authority and is largely staffed by former PA officials. They are wary of integrating Hamas officials following the harsh experience of 2007, when Hamas violently took full control of the Strip.
The decision to reopen Rafah was met with harsh criticism from right-wing coalition partners, although the decision ultimately passed.
Israel remains concerned over the role of Qatar and Turkey (as Hamas’s patrons) who also joined the Board of Peace. As such there was a question over whether Israel should also take a seat on the committee. In the end, Israeli officials argued that it’s better to participate than be excluded from decision-making.

Looking ahead: The search for Ran Gvili’s body in the cemetery in Gaza City is expected to continue for the next few days before moving onto other possible burial sites.

The director of the Board of Peace Bulgarian diplomat Nickolay Mladenov is expected to visit Israel soon and finalise the details regarding the Rafah Crossing and the establishment of the multi-national force that is supposed to be tasked with disarming Hamas. The Rafah Crossing is expected to reopen towards the end of this week.
The US military is due to deploy more troops to the Middle East in the next few days, but it remains unclear what Trump will decide to do vis-à-vis Iran.