What’s happened: On Sunday night, the security cabinet approved an IDF plan to expand the fighting in Gaza. 

• As part of the preparation for the new campaign, the IDF has begun mobilising tens of thousands of reservists. 
• The focus of the expanded operation is for the IDF to capture, control and hold more of the Strip, in order to induce Hamas into a new deal to release the remaining 59 hostages.
• Speaking on Monday, IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin clarified, “This operation’s top priority is bringing back the hostages. Then comes the collapse of the Hamas regime, its defeat, its submission. But first of all is bringing the hostages back.”

Context: Nineteen months on from the October 7^th massacre, Israel still finds itself fighting across multiple fronts.  

• The government argues that two significant factors have changed the situation:
  • Unlike the restrictions placed by President Biden, Donald Trump appears to have given Israel a free hand to act (though it remains to be determined how long this will last for). 
  • During most of the previous fighting, the IDF was operating simultaneously against Hezbollah in the north. With the bulk of fighting now over, the IDF can concentrate more troops into Gaza. 
• Although the IDF are keeping their operational plans a secret, it is thought that operational plans will be different. The IDF initially acted sequentially, with troops entering Gaza to kill terrorists, dismantle infrastructure but then leave, which – with no alternative leadership – would allow Hamas to regroup and resume control over the area.   In contrast, it is believed that now the IDF will operate simultaneously across the Strip in an effort to overwhelm and disrupt Hamas.  
• The new plan could replicate the recent operation in Rafah, where troops surrounded the city and destroyed terror infrastructure, both above and below ground, and then remained there in order to control the territory. 
• It is estimated that this new operation could last several months. 
• Domestically, there is high concern over what the military can achieve in the current situation that it failed to do until now. 
• There remains harsh criticism of the government who is accused of forsaking the remaining hostages. Additionally, the Israeli public is tired, reservists are worn out and exhausted, and public legitimacy for another major operation in Gaza is questionable. Even within the security cabinet there is a level of distrust between the political and military leaders. 
• The IDF are now led by Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. Out of uniform and serving as Director General of the Ministry of Defence on October 7^th, Zamir was outside the chain of command and is seen as being untainted by the failures. He remains deeply committed to the IDF’s values which include the protection of uninvolved civilians. 
• One dispute is over the renewal of delivery of Humanitarian Aid. Israeli estimates that supplies in Gaza will become dangerously depleted in the next few weeks. It is open to speculation if this will be enough for Hamas to feel the pressure and change its position.   
• Zamir’s position is that Israel must not starve two million Palestinians. Therefore, Israel must allow food in but in a way that prevents the aid from falling into Hamas’s hands. He also insists that distribution will not be done by the IDF. Therefore plans are being prepared for the IDF to secure safe routes for the delivery of aid, with private companies or international NGO’s responsible to distribute the aid direct to the Gazans, cutting Hamas out of the process. 
• The latest plan will turn Rafah into the central hub for distributing aid. Distribution centres will be set up in the “sterile zone,” which is designed to be free of any Hamas presence.  The aid will be distributed to every Gazan family individually. One representative from every Gazan family will be allowed to take supplies for their family only. According to the defence establishment’s assessments, the average quantity of aid that will have to be distributed is 70 kilograms of supplies for every Gazan family per week. It is hoped this mechanism will prevent Hamas from stealing the aid. 
• There remains hope that the credibility of the planned operation, combined with humanitarian pressure and Trump’s plan, will push Hamas to show flexibility before the major operation begins.

Looking ahead: President Trump is due to visit the Gulf next week, with planned stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

• The IDF’s anticipated expanded Gaza operation is not expected to begin until after his return, and it is hoped that while in Doha he may be able to secure an agreement around Witkoff’s proposal that can be implemented instead of the military campaign.

What’s happened: New report by the Henry Jackson Society challenges Hamas’s claim that 70 per cent of the reported over 50,000 people killed in Gaza were women and children.

• In the report, Prof Lewi Stone and Prof Gregory Rose argue that data published by the Hamas controlled health ministry is inconsistent with its own underlying hospital casualty figures.
• Of over 11,000 Hamas Ministry of Health recorded deaths since October 2024, 76 per cent were male, with 58 per cent identified as men of fighting age, contradicting the narrative of indiscriminate Israeli strikes. 

Context: 

• Israel is coordinated with the US in terms of the fighting in Gaza and the continued efforts to reach a new hostage deal. 
• There is debate among senior politicians with some members of the security cabinet calling for an immediate expansion in the scope of fighting in Gaza in order to fully defeat Hamas. Currently Prime Minister Netanyahu favours giving more time to the hostage negotiators to explore a new deal based on the Witkoff framework.
• The Israeli government remains adamant that no Humanitarian Aid is to enter Gaza at present. Ironically, if a decision is made to intensify the fighting it is anticipated that this will first necessitate the moving of Gazan civilians to a new safe zone in the south. As part of that move Israel is then expected to renew the supply of aid, once a mechanism can be established to circumvent Hamas.
• The new mechanism to distribute aid is expected to be facilitated by trusted international partners, possibly private US organisations.
• Two IDF soldiers were killed on Friday:
  • Sgt. Neta Yitzhak Kahana, a 19 year old Border Police undercover soldier from Moshav Eitan, was killed in a firefight in Gaza City’s Sajaiya neighbourhood. An hour later, Armoured Corps officer Cpt. Ido Voloch, a 21-year-old resident of Jerusalem, was killed by an RPG. 
  • Overall three IDF divisions continue to operate across the Gaza Strip, specifically in the north and south. 
  • According to the IDF since the renewed operations just over a month ago, “more than 1,800 terror targets across the Gaza Strip have been struck so far, and hundreds of terrorists have been eliminated, including dozens of commanders, mid-level operatives, and government operatives.”

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet is once more scheduled to meet later today, with decisions anticipated over the nature and intensity of the fighting in Gaza.

• On Wednesday and Thursday Israel will mark Memorial Day followed by Independence Day. Any mass call up of reserves is expected only after these poignant commemorations.    

Situation update: According to the IDF they currently control roughly 40% of the Gaza Strip’s territory.

• After maintaining a degree of ambiguity over the military campaign the IDF has revealed more details of its latest military campaign in Gaza over the last month.    
• The fighting is taking place in the north, south and central Gaza, focused on remaining hubs of Hamas’s power base. Regular situation assessment meetings are held with the IDF officials responsible for the hostages in order to prevent attacks in parts of Gaza where the hostages are being held.
• Since the military operation was re-launched just over a month ago, the IDF have carried out around 1,300 attacks and claim that more than 400 terrorists have been killed, including military commanders and senior Hamas officials.
• In the south, the IDF is determined to defeat the Rafah brigade (again). As such the ‘Morag Corridor’ – six km wide, ten km long and cutting off Rafah from the rest of the Gaza Strip – is designed to isolate Rafah and cut access to Khan Yunis. The IDF has identified and destroyed two major tunnels in this area, but it is unclear if more exist.
• The IDF believes that its control of the Morag Corridor leaves the Rafah Brigade surrounded, though operatives have continued to exploit the tunnels in the Rafah sector to carry out attacks against IDF forces. According to military estimates, approximately 150 Hamas operatives remain in three neighbourhoods in Rafah. 
• Over the last few days the Israeli Air Force has struck over 200 military targets throughout the Gaza Strip. According to the IDF this has included, “terrorist cells, launch and sniper posts, weapons storage facilities, and structures used by terrorists for terrorist activity.”
• In southern Gaza IDF troops, “dismantled terrorist infrastructure sites and located a weapons cache containing grenades, ammunition, and additional military equipment.”
• The IDF also announced the targeting of another terrorist that participated in the October 7th massacre.

Buffer zone: Inside the Gaza periphery the IDF has now established a ‘buffer zone’ and built 15 new military outposts inside Gaza, from north to south Gaza.

• These posts, consisting of high mounds of earth surrounded by barbed wire and built adjacent to Israel, are designed to prevent another October 7^th style attack on the communities on the Israeli side of the border. 
• During the course of the month, Hamas has largely avoided direct confrontations with IDF forces.
• For the most part Hamas has decided to withdraw most of its estimated remaining 20,000 fighters – many of whom are considered untrained and recruited in the last year – and have them assimilated among the civilians in the designated safe zone.  
• As a result, Hamas fighters have reverted to guerilla tactics to attack IDF soldiers, by firing anti-tank rockets and sniper rifles, and by detonating improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and firing rockets.
• IDF troops say they rarely see Hamas fighters, who are often able to disappear, presumably down an undiscovered tunnel shaft.

Bedouin Officer killed: Ghaleb Alnasasra a 35 year old Bedoiun tracker from Rahat was killed by an IED in the buffer zone in northern Gaza.  

• The incident began when fighters suddenly emerged from a tunnel and fired a rocket-propelled grenade at an unarmoured military vehicle. Three female combat soldiers were seriously wounded and were taken by helicopter to hospitals in Israel. 
• Twenty-eight minutes later, the terrorists detonated an IED, targeting trackers who had come to assist with the wounded soldiers’ evacuation.
• The terrorist squad successfully escaped to the nearby town of Beit Hanoun. 

Looking ahead / hostage talks: After Hamas rejected the most recent Israeli proposal, a new round of talks to discuss a hostage deal is expected to begin in Cairo in the next couple of days. 

• Reports suggest that Qatar and Egypt have a new proposal, calling for a truce for between five and seven years, the release of all 59 hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian terrorists, a declared end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. 
• Israel’s security cabinet is scheduled to meet this evening.  
• If the talks don’t progress, the IDF is making preparations for an even more comprehensive ground manoeuvre. This could include dividing the Strip in half and for the IDF to take over and hold more territory to  increase further pressure on Hamas.

What’s happened: According to media reports, Israel has presented its latest proposal to Egypt, which have in turn passed it on to Hamas.

• The latest plan includes:
  • A 45-day ceasefire, with the IDF halting their military campaign in the Gaza Strip and allowing the renewal of Humanitarian Aid.
  • On the first day Hamas would release Edan Alexander – an IDF soldier with dual Israeli-American citizenship – as a special gesture to the US. 
  • On the second day of the ceasefire, Hamas would release five living hostages in exchange for 66 prisoners serving life sentences and 611 prisoners who were arrested in Gaza. 
  • Based on the proposal, at this point the IDF are expected to begin redeployment out of populated areas in the north and south of the Strip.  
  • On the third day, negotiations would begin to discuss the “day after,” the disarmament of Hamas, and a possible declaration of a permanent ceasefire. 
  • On the seventh day, Hamas would release four more living hostages in exchange for 54 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences as well as another 500 Gazans who were arrested after October 7^th.
  • The IDF would then re-open the main north-south route, allowing Gazans to return once more to the northern Gaza Strip. 
  • On the tenth day, Hamas would provide information about all the remaining living hostages in exchange for information about the Palestinian detainees. 
  • On the 20th day, Hamas would release the remains of 16 dead hostages in exchange for 160 dead Palestinians. 
  • The proposal states that negotiations for a permanent ceasefire should be concluded within 45 days. After agreeing on a ceasefire, all the other hostages, living and dead, would be released. 
• There is also a provision for both sides to agree to extend the terms of a temporary ceasefire. 
• Israel is again insisting that Hamas refrain from holding their release ‘ceremonies.’

Context: The latest proposal is being considered amid continued IDF operations inside Gaza. 

• During this latest operation the IDF have remained deliberately ambiguous on precise details of their progress, primarily to deny Hamas knowledge of their manoeuvres.
• Nevertheless, the IDF Spokesperson’s Office released some details. Over the weekend, the Israeli Air Force, “struck over 90 terror targets…throughout the Gaza Strip.” Among the targets were launch sites of rockets that were fired towards southern Israel on Saturday. Over the weekend, Hamas fired five rockets at Israel in separate incidents. 
• One IDF attack focused on a Hamas command and control centre set up inside the Al Ahli Hospital in northern Gaza. The IDF noted the “compound was used by Hamas terrorists to plan and execute terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops. Prior to the strike, steps were taken to mitigate harm to civilians or to the hospital compound, including issuing advanced warnings in the area of the terror infrastructure, the use of precise munitions, and aerial surveillance.”
• One again the IDF emphasised that Hamas, “systematically violates international law while using civilian infrastructure, brutally exploiting the civilian population as a human shield for its terrorist activities. The IDF has repeatedly stated that military activity within medical facilities in Gaza must cease.”
• IDF troops also continue to operate in the area of Rafah and the newly established Morag Corridor that cuts the contact between Rafah and Khan Yunis. 
• In northern Gaza, IDF troops dismantled terror infrastructure and tunnel shafts.    
• Over the last few days, the IDF confirmed, “11 terrorists who infiltrated Israeli territory and took part in the October 7^th massacre have been eliminated, including key operatives involved in the murder and abduction of Israeli civilians and soldiers.”
• This past weekend Hamas released another propaganda video of Edan Alexander. This was the second proof that Alexander is alive.
• Fifty nine hostages, of whom 24 are thought to be alive remain in Hamas captivity now for 557 days.
• Israel is hoping that the military pressure, specifically retaking control of tactical corridors, will serve as a catalyst for Hamas to agree to a renewed hostage deal. 
• As part of the efforts to reach a new ceasefire, the key disagreements continue to be Israel’s reluctance to offer guarantees for ending the war. So far Hamas has shown no willingness to agree to disarm. 
• Whilst there are currently no fuel or food shortages, Gazans will soon face limitations on these items if the military campaign continues. This is also supposed to increase the pressure on Hamas from within its own civilian population. Israeli officials are continuing to closely monitor the storage and stockpiles of food, cooking gas and fuel.
• When the supply of aid is resumed, Israel will be looking to implement a new delivery mechanism that will ensure that the Humanitarian Aid only reaches the civilian population and is not controlled by Hamas. 

 Looking ahead: Israel is waiting for a formal response from Hamas with the next few days considered critical. 

• If Israel senses that there is a basis for negotiations, an Israeli delegation is then expected to return for more proximity talks in Doha or Cairo.