What’s happened: A primary election was held for the main left-wing Zionist party. The Democrats, led by Yair Golan and formed by the merger of Labour and Meretz, held an open election where party members could select up to eight candidates on the list.
- The vote garnered much attention from local media, and the turnout was remarkably high with over 97 thousand voters casting their vote underscoring Golan’s efforts to rejuvenate the left.
- The turnout means that over 86 per cent of party members voted, a figure unseen in primary elections in Israel, where turnout normally hovers between 50 and 70 per cent. The Democrats are currently polling at around 11 mandates.
- A vote by the Likud Central Committee to authorise a new procedure and contingency plan for drawing up the list of Likud candidates for the upcoming general election – scheduled for today – was abruptly postponed this morning.
- At stake were both the Prime Minister’s demand to reserve eight slots on the list for his preferred candidates and an alternative procedure for composing the rest of the list in the event that a formal primary election would need to be cancelled due to renewed fighting with Iran.
- The dispute over the Likud primary has turned into a fault line about the power of Prime Minister Netanyahu over party institutions, the conflict between the party’s base and its need for electability, and tension over the security situation.
- Other than Likud and The Democrats, no other parties are planning to hold primaries for their list of candidates for the general election, scheduled for October 27.
- Hadash, the Arab majority party led for more than a decade by Ayman Odeh, held a party congress in May where Yousef Jabareen was selected to succeed Odeh. Delegates at the party congress also selected the party’s top candidates for its Knesset list, which is expected to be combined with at least one other Arab party for the general election.
- A raft of new polls shows little change in the overall distribution of voter preferences. In all polls, the current governing coalition scores 50 or 51 mandates, and the opposition 9including Arab parties) 69 or 70. In at least one poll, opposition parties are able to reach 61 mandates even without the support of any Arab parties, whose combined total usually hovers around 10, but in most this is not the case.
- Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party has established a significant lead over the Together (Beyachad) list created by merging former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s two parties. In the most recent N12 poll, Yashar on its own leads Likud, with 24 mandates projected for Eisenkot’s party versus 23 for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s.
- Eisenkot is also polling above Netanyahu in head-to-head questions about suitability for Prime Minister 43% to 37%, with 14% saying neither and 6% ‘don’t know’.
Context: The same N12 poll posed follow-up questions separately to supporters of the coalition and the opposition with remarkable results. Among coalition supporters, normally understood to be more conservative and nationalistic, there was very high support (59 per cent in favour and only 19 per cent opposed) for the Government’s concessions to Ultra-Orthodox parties on the divisive conscription issue, which runs counter to the conventional wisdom that a right-wing public would be alienated by such moves.
- Opposition voters, when asked what the preferred course of action would be in the event that the Netanyahu coalition loses but the Zionist opposition parties on their own cannot reach 61 mandates, prefer by a significant margin the option of relying on a partnership with an Arab party. This was the preferred response of 44 per cent, versus 28 per cent who preferred to hold another election, 13 per cent who preferred a unity government with the Likud, and 6 per cent who preferred a coalition with an ultra-Orthodox party.
- The Prime Minister’s insistence on eight reserved spots for his choices is seen by outside observers as an attempt to push down some of the most outspoken provocateurs in the party’s ranks, including firebrands May Golan, Tali Gotiv, and Shlomo Karhi. All three are highly popular among party activists, and the first two are particularly popular on social media among right-wing voters. But all three are seen as liabilities in turning to the general public.
- With the party only polling at around 23 mandates, eight reserved seats for the Prime Minister’s choice, together with other set-asides for regional representation, would leave very few seats in realistic slots up for grabs for general primary voters. Under the current plan, the Prime Minister will select the candidates for positions 3, 5, 9, 11, 15, 18, 26, and 31 on the list.
- The Likud primary method also reserves seats for representatives of geographical regions, such as the Galilee or the Negev. The party also reserves one slot for an oleh (recent immigrant) and a minority (Druze, Circassian, or other non-Jew). These reserved slots are normally not held for politicians serving as ministers in Government. This, together with the party’s projected shrinking by a third (from 32 mandates to something in the low twenties) puts even more pressure on incumbent politicians, who will have to fight over a small pool of primary slots that will leave most of them out of the next parliament.
- All this has come to a head with the Prime Minister’s insistence on the central committee’s approval for a contingency plan in the event of a security flare-up that would let him convene an organising committee to put together the entire list and cancel the primaries altogether. The party’s constitution committee approved the plan over the vehement objections of some of the party’s MK’s, but the central committee vote scheduled for this morning was postponed until at least next Sunday.
- Members of the Democrats Party were asked to select between six and eight candidates to populate all the spots on the party’s list from position 2 downward. Position 1 is reserved for party leader Yair Golan.
- Many spots on the list are reserved for minority or female representation, but unlike in the Likud primary method, these serve as boosts on primary voting rather than a separate mechanism in parallel to primary voting. On gender, the party uses the so-called “zipper method”: the number 2 position goes to the top vote getter, which is then followed by the number 3 position which goes to the top vote getter of the opposite gender; Each position following that is alternated by gender. Party rules also provide a boosted ranking for three categories of representatives: former Meretz representatives, rural representatives (from the kibbutz or moshav movement), and minority representatives (from Israel’s Arab and Druze communities).
- The highest number of votes was received my Naama Lazimi. She was followed by Gilad Kariv, Efrat Rayten, Yaya Fink, Gaby Lasky, Omri Ronen, and Michal Rozin. The zipper method will not need to be employed for at least the first ten spots on the list. Lasky and Rozin’s vote count mean that the boost for Meretz representatives will also not be necessary. Soumaya Bashir earned the tenth spot on the list, so it is likely that the boost for an Arab representative will also not be needed.
- One notable outcome was the successful performance of leaders of the protest movement of the last few years (against the judicial reform and for a hostage deal), including Yaya Fink, Omri Ronen, and Moshe Radman.
- Another notable outcome was the poor performance of anti-clerical activist Naor Narkis, a social media star with very strong views against religious coercion and social privileges for the ultra-Orthodox public, but also the source of a lot of suspicion among left-wing figures that he is not committed to other positions that are important to them, especially on questions related to the occupation and the conduct of the war in Gaza.
Looking ahead: Party lists are submitted to the Central Election Committee over a two-day period 40 days before the general election, schedule for October 27. The two large centrist parties, Together and Yashar, neither of which exist in their current form in the outgoing Knesset, are expected to put together lists by an organising committee under the watchful eyes of their respective chairmen.
- There is still some uncertainty about other party formations in the political centre. A Yesodot Yisrael party led by former MK Yoaz Hendel and MK Chili Tropper, who had been a popular minister from Benny Gantz’s party, is polling at just around the electoral threshold of 3.25 per cent, usually just below and sometimes just above.
- Speculation abounds about the anticipated moves of Benny Gantz himself, as well as media personality Dedi Simchi, though they consistently poll below the threshold too. Opposition figures consistently accuse them of trying to siphon centrist votes to the benefit of Netanyahu.
- There is still no final decision about whether some (or even all) the Arab parties will run as a joint list. A joint list is projected to secure the Arab parties more total mandates, but could severely limit the ability of one of its constituent members to support an opposition coalition.


