What’s happened: On Sunday, the Knesset House Committee announced that the date for Israel’s general election will be October 27.
- Coalition whip MK Ofir Katz (Likud) spoke of the government’s achievements, telling the House Committee that, “We passed nine budgets and hundreds of laws that benefit the citizens of the State of Israel.”
- Yisrael Beytenu leader MK Avigdor Liberman said, “On October 27, we will win. We will replace the government of the October 7 massacre and establish a Zionist and statesmanlike government, and we will rebuild the country.”
- Today the Knesset will begin its final session and will hold continuous votes on a range of proposed legislation that is waiting for final approval day and night, until Friday.
- Coalition MKs have been instructed not to leave Jerusalem in order to ensure a majority for all votes.
- Issues on the legislative agenda include:
- Minister Levin’s bill to split the attorney general’s powers. The bill would divide the role into two separate jobs: an attorney general, responsible for legal advice to the government, representing the state in noncriminal matters and leading the state legal advisory system; and a general prosecutor, exclusively responsible for criminal law, including indictments and managing the public prosecution.
- Basic Law: Torah Study. The bill would enshrine, “Torah study is a fundamental value of Jewish heritage and the State of Israel.” This is a softened version, removing a clause that would have granted draft dodgers benefits equivalent to those of combat soldiers, but could still be used to justify not serving in the military.
- Minister Karhi’s media bill. The bill would allow the establishment of new news channels with almost no regulation, abolish the structural separation between channel owners and news companies and create a government app through which all news channels could be accessed for free. It would also give the government, through appointments to the new regulator, significantly more influence over media oversight and enforcement.
- Shas’s kashrut supervision bill. A reversal of a law passed by the previous government aimed at opening the kashrut industry to competition. This bill would centralise supervision over kosher food certification.
Context: October 27 will signify the first time since 1988 that elections have been held after a full four-year term.
- This marks a significant achievement for the coalition, which managed to politically survive the October 7 massacre, the worst disaster in Israeli history. It has endured not only the profound political and security crisis that followed, but also the mass street protests triggered by the government’s attempted judicial overhaul.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu is focused on two main political issues:
- He is working to pass legislation designed to preserve his bloc and his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox.
- He is also trying to cancel the Likud internal elections and secure ten personal slots on the party’s slate.
- For over a decade the ultra-orthodox have been perceived as Netanyahu’s ‘natural partners’ however gaps have emerged.
- Over the weekend Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, the spiritual leader of Shas, (and son of the party’s founder) suggested Eisenkot could be a better option, he was quoted saying, “There is no chance Bibi will repent. Eisenkot might.”
- Another ultra-Orthodox partner, head of the Degel Hatorah faction MK Moshe Gafni recently declared that the party no longer feel bound to Netanyahu.
- Netanyahu calculations suggest that he believes the price he will pay for advancing the ultra-Orthodox legislation is lower than the cost of entering the election without a united bloc, which could at least prevent the opposing camp from forming a government.
- However, it now appears that the controversial Basic Law: Torah Study has been stripped of the most meaningful aspects (that would have placed bible study as an equivalent value to military service) and now appears purely declarative.
- One of the major lessons from the last election is to ensure (for each bloc) that no votes are wasted. Last time Netanyahu successfully convinced Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power and Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party to merge and run together. Due to their personal animosity this appears unlikely this time around. Instead, Likud officials are considering reserving a spot for Smotrich on the Likud list.
- Netanyahu faces a political challenge, he is conscious of the discrepancy between the popularity of some of the Likud MKs among the Likud membership versus their standing with potential Likud voters. He is aware that despite his residual popularity among right wing voters, some of his more outspoken backbenchers are controversial and unpopular. He is therefore hoping to convince the internal Likud mechanism to give him maximum control and insert his own preferred candidates into prominent positions on the party slate.
- Within the current Likud faction, former Speaker of the Knesset MK Yuli Edelstein announced that he will not run with Likud in the upcoming elections. Similarly Likud MK Dan Illouz, a leading voice within Likud against legislation favouring the ultra-Orthodox announced that he is also leaving the party.
- According to the latest polling by Kan News, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has overtaken Likud for the first time and is now slated to win 24 seats were elections to be held today, one more than Netanyahu’s Likud.
- However, the seat that Eisenkot’s party has added since the last poll did not come at the expense of Likud, but at the expense of Naftali Bennett’s Together Party, which lost one seat and is now projected to win 15 seats. The Netanyahu bloc lost one seat and is now projected to win 52 seats, whereas the current opposition parties (including Arab parties) are projected to win 68 seats.
- Regarding suitability to serve as prime minister, 41% of respondents said they view Gadi Eisenkot as the most suitable candidate, compared with 37% for Netanyahu.
Looking ahead: The Knesset will be dissolved this coming Friday, July 17, entering a lengthy recess until after the elections.
- Netanyahu’s government will then enter a transitional caretaker phase, during which laws can only pass with the mutual consent of the Knesset factions.
- After several delays the Likud party’s constitution committee will soon meet to decide the mechanism for choosing the Likud’s party list and how many reserved spots will be granted to the prime minister. One proposal submitted to the constitution committee would be to select candidates through a hybrid of three methods; Netanyahu’s personally-selected candidates, a nominating committee and internal elections. Netanyahu is demanding ten personal slots.
- Netanyahu wants quiet until all (or some) the contentious bills are passed by the Knesset this week. Only once the Knesset is in recess will they set the criteria for the list, so there will be no chance for a rebellion within the Likud faction.
- The election will be overseen by the Central Elections Committee, which is made up of representatives of the factions represented in the Knesset according to their relative size. The committee is headed by Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg. It has not yet been decided whether party lists must be submitted 45 or 50 days before the election.


