What’s happened: As negotiations in Switzerland, between the US and Iran, and in Washington, between Israel and Lebanon, drag on Israel’s attention yesterday turned to domestic politics and the brewing storm regarding Haredi conscription and the last ditch efforts of the governing coalition to push through controversial legislation before the anticipated dissolution of parliament.

• Yesterday, a protest was organised by one of the ultra-Orthodox factions, Agudat Yisrael, with the intention of disrupting traffic nationwide through a slow-moving convoy heading towards a military prison where several ultra-Orthodox men who refused to comply with call-up orders are being detained.
• The protest itself did not meet the expectations of its organisers, with far too few people showing up to have the desired effect. Traffic was disrupted for a few hours on major highways, but ultimately no rally was held outside the military prison.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu completed his testimony to a Tel Aviv court yesterday in the corruption trial which has convulsed Israeli politics for nearly a decade. His trial has been underway since early 2020, and the criminal investigations which led to the trial began in 2016. The Prime Minister was first called to the witness stand in December 2024, and yesterday was his 98th hearing in the court. Over that time, multiple hearings were cancelled or postponed due to health crises, national emergencies, and wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.
• With his testimony finished, he will not reappear in court until the day a verdict is read out. The claim, used alternately by the Prime Minister’s supporters and opponents for different ends, that the trial was interfering with ability to perform his official duties, is now mostly moot.
• Also yesterday, an Israeli civilian working as a contractor for the Defence Ministry in Gaza was killed in a building collapse in the Gaza Strip. Raad Abu al-Qi’an, from the Bedouin town Hura, was carrying out demolition works with heavy machinery when the structure he was operating in collapsed. An IDF reservist was also killed in southern Lebanon in a truck accident. Master Sgt. (res.) Basil Sweid, 32, from the Druze town Peki’in, was driving a refuelling truck in the Yellow Line area of southern Lebanon when his truck overturned, killing him and moderately wounding a combat soldier.

Context: Protests from the ultra-orthodox public and the draft have been escalating in recent months because, in departure from earlier practice, ultra-Orthodox men who do not show up for draft call ups are occasionally being detained.

• In years past, this did not occur due to a complex system of deferments which the Israeli judiciary has determined were illegal. The only way to keep the deferment system going is for parliament to pass legislation enshrining it into law. But such legislation is extremely unpopular, and has become even more so since the multi-front war which ensued following the October 7 massacre nearly three years ago.
• Agudat Yisrael is the largely Hasidic party that together with Degel HaTorah, the non-Hasidic Ashkenazi faction, make up the joint list known as United Torah Judaism (UTJ) which represents the Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox public in general.  UTJ secured seven seats in the most recent Knesset election, the fourth consecutive election in which it won that exact number of mandates. It has won between six and eight seats in the last seven parliamentary elections, an indication of its steady, largely demographically determined, voting public.
• The right-wing and religious coalition in power since late 2022 would ordinarily be expected to push such legislation through as the political cost of keeping its various factions in place, but the war and the steep losses incurred by both the secular and national religious public have made parts of the right-wing coalition squeamish about some of the more extreme measures that would be needed to make the blanket deferment legal.
• At the same time, the absence of any legislation leaves the IDF with little choice but to actually detain draft refusers, even if in relatively small numbers, further inflaming passions in the Haredi community.
• While comprehensive legislation on the issue remains off the table for now, Likud lawmakers and their Haredi allies are trying to push through deeply unpopular partial measures that each side desperately wants to see come into effect before the Knesset is formally dissolved and new elections called.
• The ultra-orthodox parties would like to see the passage of far-reaching legislation entrenching legal privileges that are broadly rejected by the general public. The proposed Basic Law: Torah Study, for example, would define Torah study as “a foundational value of Jewish heritage” and would recognise Torah study as a “significant national contribution,” potentially opening the path for non-working non-serving ultra-Orthodox men to enjoy a host of public benefits normally reserved for IDF veterans. As a Basic Law, it would essentially be a quasi-constitutional statue that would override future legislation by future majorities in parliament.
• Ultra-orthodox parties have also secured Netanyahu’s backing for a bill that would undo a reform in kashrut certification that was well liked by the public, including the religiously observant public, but which shut off a lucrative patronage valve for ultra-Orthodox parties.
• They have also apparently secured the Prime Minister’s backing for a bill that would grant immunity from arrest for draft dodgers, which would not change the legal status of draft dodgers in the absence of comprehensive legislation on conscription, but would eliminate the biggest disincentive to refusal to serve.
• In exchange for this, the Haredi parties have reportedly given their assent to support a raft of parliamentary measures which Netanyahu and his party are keen to pass despite enormous public opposition. These include controversial judicial reforms, such as splitting the role of Attorney General, a contentious media reform bill, and a measure to place the internal investigations unit of the Israel Police under the direct control of the Justice Minister.
• The attempt to split the role of the Attorney General, if passed, would constitute the first real victory of the ambitious judicial reform whose rollout in the early days of the current Government in January 2023 sent Israel into months of demonstrations and counter-demonstrations.
• The proposed legislation would create a separate Prosecutor General, who would be appointed to six-year terms by a public committee and be responsible for prosecutions and investigations. The remaining responsibilities would under the remit of a newly constituted position retaining the name Attorney General, but this Attorney General would be a political appointee of the Government whose term would be tied to the Government in power. Supporters of the reform claim it would be in line with reigning international standards, while opponents fear that would politicise the judicial system and eliminate a crucial check on executive power.
• Netanyahu is accused of fraud and breach of trust for allegedly accepting expensive gifts in exchange for favours as well as for concocting a scheme to limit circulation of a free daily newspaper in exchange for more favourable coverage from an established daily tabloid (the plot, if real, was in any event never carried out). He is also accused of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery (a much more serious offence in the Israeli penal code) in a case where he allegedly advanced legislation that would have financially benefited a major media tycoon in exchange for positive media coverage.

Looking ahead: In the meantime, there is still no agreed upon date for the upcoming election. By law elections are scheduled for October 27 of this year. As the Knesset tarries in considering motions to dissolve itself and call early elections, the range of dates keeps shrinking. “Early” elections in Israel have to be held at least 90 days after parliament is formally dissolved, a no more than five months after that. Elections can only be held on a Tuesday and can’t be on a religious holiday. If the elections do not end up being held on their original date, it is likely they will only have been moved up by about a week to October 20.

• In public opinion polling, the governing coalition and opposition blocs remain almost unchanged for more than two years. The two most recent polls to be published in recent days both show the coalition projected to win 53 seats and the opposition projected to win 67. In the opposition camp, six seats are projected for the Arab list Hadash-Ta’al who are not expected to join any future coalition, and four are projected for Ra’am, which was a part of the so-called “Change Government” in power briefly in 2021-22 under Prime Ministers Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid.
• The bigger drama inside the opposition bloc has been the steady erosion of support for the combined list of the two former Prime Ministers Bennett and Lapid and the concomitant rise of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. The former has fallen to 15 mandates in the most recent polls while the latter has risen to 20. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud is steady on 23 mandates.
• Netanyahu’s trial will continue with several dozen more witnesses due to testify, but Netanyahu himself no longer needs to appear in court in person. The deadline to complete the trial appears to be March 2028, when the head of the judging panel, Justice Rivka Friedman-Feldman, will reach the age of 70 and is due to retire.

What’s happened: Ultra-orthodox rioters descended on the home of Supreme Court Deputy Chief Justice Noam Sohlberg in the West Bank settlement of Alon Shvut and smashed windows and caused other damage to his car, garden, and house.

• The police arrested 65 suspected rioters fleeing the scene, of whom 62 remain in custody. Some of the rioters came equipped with miniature drones, according to police.
• Sohlberg is normally seen as one of the more conservative jurists on the Court, but he joined other justices in a unanimous decision in 2024 which invalidated the exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox men, leaving the Knesset to advance legislation on the issue.
• The attempt to legislate some kind of compromise formulation that would pass the Court’s muster failed in the current parliamentary session, leading to the coalition breakup and the current effort to dissolve parliament and hold early elections.
• The incident was vociferously condemned by politicians in the opposition camp. Naftali Bennett, widely seen as the most likely alternative to Netanyahu in the next election, described the rioters and their backers as a “small extremist and violent group that receives protection from the government and permits itself to go further and further.” Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party has been rising in the polls in recent weeks and also sees himself a possible replacement for Netanyahu, said “the extremist shirkers are harvesting the corrupt government’s fruits of incitement.”
• The Prime Minister also condemned the rioters, who said that he “expects law enforcement officials to deal aggressively with the rioters.” Among other coalition figures, the condemnations were more muted, with one ultra-Orthodox MK saying “there is no place for violence in our camp,” while understanding the “pain” felt by some of the ultra-Orthodox public at calls for universal draft enforcement. Other leaders from ultra-Orthodox parties were yet to make statements on the incident.
• President Herzog called the riot the home of a Supreme Court judge a “dangerous crossing of a red line.” He added: “I call on everyone: Stop before there is a disaster.”
• In recent years, the phenomenon of protest outside the homes of public figures has become increasingly common in Israel. What began with protests outside official residences, such as those of the President or Prime Minister, turned into protests outside private residences of leading politicians and eventually mayors and senior civil servants.
• In the last decade, protesters regularly gathered in front of the home of then-Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit demanding he indict Prime Minister Netanyahu (he eventually did) and even in front the home of a senior figure in the Ministry of Health who was associated with organising the early lockdowns and vaccination efforts. Yesterday’s riot is the first time such a protest descended into violence and property damage.
• The riot in Alon Shvut comes on the backdrop of days of civil disturbances by parts of the ultra-Orthodox public opposed to ending the draft exemptions. Earlier this week, ultra-Orthodox demonstrators blocked major highways and even the rail line that connects Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and Ben Gurion airport, causing significant disruptions to the entire transportation system.

What’s happened: On Wednesday the Knesset voted to elect Michael Rabello as the next State Comptroller in a controversial vote likely to be challenged in the Supreme Court.

• The position of State Comptroller, sometimes also translated into English as State Ombudsman, is formally independent of all party and political affiliation. The election of Michael Rabello, an attorney who has represented Netanyahu and his family over years, is seen by many of the Government’s critics and even some of its supporters as a significant breach with decades of existing practice.
• The election of the Comptroller, like the election of State President, is formally done by a secret ballot of members of Knesset. If no candidate secures a 61 vote majority in the first ballot, the vote goes to a runoff where only a simple majority is needed. In yesterday’s first-round vote, Rabello had 57 votes and retired Supreme Court Justice Yosef Elron had 60 votes.
• According to the rules, this meant a second round of voting. It was at this point that coalition MK’s were seen photographing themselves on their personal telephones with their ballot papers in hand, as if to document whom they were voting for.
• It was speculated that this was done under pressure from party leaders, and the vote was immediately suspended, with the Knesset’s legal counsel emphasising that photographing ballot papers was illegal as it subverted the purpose of the secret ballot.
• Nonetheless, when the vote was renewed, coalition MK’s were still seen photographing their own votes, and the final result was 61 for Rabello and only 57 for Elron.
• Israeli media outlets, to say nothing of opposition politicians, were scathing in their critique of the process. Both the Yesh Atid party and the independent NGO, The Movement for Quality Government, have already filed briefs with the Supreme Court asking it to invalidate yesterday’s vote.
• The chairman of Yesh Atid, former Prime Minister Yair Lapid called the election “tainted.” Naftali Bennett, also a former Prime Minister and leader of the combined list ‘Together’, created by merging his new party with Yesh Atid, described the process as “not a free election, but rather an extortion.”

Election manoeuvring: Israel’s Parliament voted today in a preliminary reading in favour of a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset. Motion was supported by 110 MKs from both government and opposition opening formally the path to early general election.

• ⁠The bill will now return to the House Committee, where the government can determine the pace, and then returns to the plenum for a vote on its first reading.
• ⁠It will then be returned to the committee, and only then will it be introduced to the plenum for a vote on its second and third reading, at which point an election date will be set.
• ⁠To appease his ultra-Orthodox allies, Prime Minister Netanyahu has revived legislation intended to resolve the impasse over ultra-Orthodox conscription. This is also set to be debated today.
• ⁠Israel will therefore see three crucial debates and votes today, which will help set the stage for the upcoming Knesset election. The election is due to be held this autumn. Originally scheduled for 27 October, it is now likely to be brought forward to avoid a clash with the anniversary of the October 7 massacre.

What’s happened: A bill to dissolve the Knesset has been introduced, with the backing of all the coalition parties. Formally, dissolving parliament leads to early elections.

• The bill was presented by Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz from the Likud and is intended to allow the Likud to control the process of dissolving the Knesset and the election timetable.
• The move came after Degel HaTorah announced it would push its own bill to dissolve the Knesset.
• The Likud move follows the impasse over legislation regarding conscription for ultra-Orthodox men. A statement by the Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox Degel HaTorah faction, one part of the United Torah Judaism party, said that “We are sick and tired of futile actions designed to buy time and distract attention, only for it to be claimed in the end that there is no majority. We have notified the coalition management that we oppose the amendment to the Continuity Law and, per [rabbinic instructions], we are acting to dissolve the Knesset as soon as possible.”

Context: The Likud move is essentially designed to control the narrative over who decides when the Knesset is dissolved.

• The earliest practical date for “snap” elections is September of this year. With elections scheduled for October 27 2026 anyway, the impact of “early” elections would be to shorten the current Knesset’s four-year term by approximately one month.
• Negotiations over a conscription bill have been intensifying for months, and the promise by Prime Minister Netanyahu that a bill would be passed to the satisfaction of the ultra-Orthodox parties in the governing coalition was key to securing their support for a budget earlier this year. But earlier this week, the Prime Minister informed his coalition partners that there was no majority for passing such a bill, and those partners moved immediately to dissolve the Knesset.
• The current dissolution proposal does not name a date, though two dates have already been bruited in local media.  By law in Israel, general elections are held on Tuesdays and are paid days off from work. The Shas party is said to prefer September 15, which would fall during the High Holy Days, and would be expected to motivate its voter base. Degel HaTorah is said to prefer September 1, which is normally the first day of school for all schools in Israel, except those that are ultra-Orthodox. A paid holiday would presumably delay that by a day.
• While the ultra-Orthodox parties debate preferred dates for elections, the Prime Minister and his governing Likud party, together with the entire coalition, have a pressing interest in adjusting the date that has nothing to do with the legislative impasse over the conscription law.
• An election in October will happen just as Israelis are marking three years since the traumatising October 7 attack, something the governing coalition as a whole does not believe will be to its advantage.
• The current date, October 27, is particularly problematic because the standard Israeli way of writing the date (27.10) lends itself so easily to graphic manipulation in a way that recalls the standard way of writing October 7 (7.10), that no opposition poster, ad, banner, or video would conceivably resist incorporating into its visual campaign.
• At the same time, with the war in Iran possibly about to restart and the Gaza ceasefire hitting a decisive point where either disarmament begins or the IDF embarks on a renewed offensive inside the approximately 40% of the Strip which it does not currently control, an election campaign in the summer would be nearly impossible.
• Part of Netanyahu’s approach will be to promote his diplomatic achievements and it is in this context that his announcement of secretly visiting the UAE during the war with Iran should be seen. Until this week, nothing was publicly known about the meeting, which was apparently held on March 26 in Al Ain, an oasis city near the border with Oman.
• The Prime Minister’s Office said the visit “brought a historic breakthrough in relations” between Israel and the UAE, while the UAE Foreign Ministry angrily denied that a meeting had even taken place.
• The Foreign Ministry’s statement also denied “receiving any Israeli military delegation,” a denial that would seem to be referring to reports circulating over the past week that Israel sent an Iron Dome batter to the Emirates with Israeli soldiers to operate it during the war. Over the course of the fighting earlier this year, Iran targeted the UAE with more missiles than any other country, including Israel.
• These leaks (followed by official statements) from the Prime Minister’s Office are another indication of what the Prime Minster might hope to accomplish in the final months of this term before facing the voters.
• A diplomatic breakthrough or significant strategic achievement are the only hope the governing coalition, down in the polls by large margins since 2023, for an electoral comeback. Talk of imminent normalisation agreements with either Saudi Arabia or Lebanon has occasionally bubbled up from the Prime Minister’s milieu over recent months – and US led talks between Israel and Lebanon are set to resume today in Washington – but so far nothing of the sort has come to pass.

Looking ahead: In no poll does the current coalition of right-wing, religious-nationalist, and ultra-Orthodox parties come close to a majority in the Knesset.

• Polls over the past two years consistently show the coalition, which commands 68 seats in the current parliament, returning with 48 to 52 seats (the Jewish opposition parties generally poll between 57-61 while the Arab parties are generally polling at approximately 10 seats). Even among right-wing voters, draft deferments for ultra-Orthodox men are extremely unpopular.
• The coming weeks will  see last-ditch attempts to pass legislation that either will be unlikely to secure a majority in the next parliament or could affect the outcome of the coming election.
• Among other matters on the agenda are the proposal to split the position currently held by the Attorney General into two or even three different positions. This proposed reform would formally result in a situation more in line with other parliamentary democracies, but it is regarded with suspicion by the Opposition who see it as an attempt to quash the Prime Minister’s corruption trial as well as a way of forcing through future legislation that might otherwise be moderated on constitutional grounds.
• Also under consideration is a lowering of the electoral threshold, which both parliamentary blocs, stung by recent experiences of “vote wasting” may yet support.

What’s happened: Ahead of tomorrow’s hearing at Israel’s High Court of Justice, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara has submitted her position arguing that the decision to appoint Roman Gofman as the next head of Mossad must be overturned.

• Currently PM Netanyahu’s military secretary, Gofman’s appointment has already been approved by the Senior Appointments Advisory Committee. However, according to the Attorney General, there were “substantive flaws, both in the procedure employed by the committee, as well as in the factual foundation upon which the committee’s majority opinion was based, and in the conclusions that it formulated. This is sufficient to mandate the cancellation of the prime minister’s decision regarding the appointment.”
• Baharav-Miara also revealed that the current director of the Mossad, David Barnea has written a classified letter to the court against the appointment. Israel media have reported excerpts of the letter in which Barnea wrote that Gofman, “has a significant problem with ethical integrity and establishing self-imposed boundaries.”
• Barnea wrote that, “When a commander decides to circumvent military regulations, takes the law into his own hands, and chooses to do something he is not supposed to do, this has very far-reaching implications. Any command-level reprimand disqualifies a promotion, certainly a promotion to Mossad director. I view this case as someone abusing his power, even if it only lasted two weeks. After the initial decision, he should have reconsidered, even if the mistake hadn’t been discovered at that stage. Gofman should not be appointed director of the Mossad.”
• Not for the first time, the attorney general’s rejection of this government’s appointment received severe criticism. Finance Minister Smotrich said that her, “position against Gofman’s appointment is one step too far. We are determined to pass the legislation to split the role of the attorney general during the summer session.”
• Coalition Chairman MK Ofir Katz, sarcastically referred to the attorney general as, “Opposition Chairperson” claiming she is “conducting a hunt against excellent, heroic and worthy officers, only because this is the government that appoints them. She should be ignored and continue the appointment.”

Context: Maj. Gen. Roman Gofman currently serves as the military secretary to the prime minister. Whilst he is considered a courageous military commander he has no specific experience in intelligence operations.

• The main scrutiny over his appointment relates to an incident in 2022 when Gofman was the commander of an IDF Division in the north. He allegedly authorised two intelligence officers to act as handlers for a 17-year-old influencer Ori Elmakayes. The two sent
• Elmakayes classified information and asked him to post it online in an attempt to mount an “influence campaign”—even though they were not authorised to do so. Subsequently, Elmakayes was arrested by the Shin Bet for publishing secret information. He was held in solitary confinement for about two months and was then charged with espionage, and imprisoned for more than a year. In all that time without Gofman or anyone on his behalf stating that they were the ones who had instructed him to do so.
• Gofman and his subordinates were never investigated as part of the affair and took no responsibility for it. They were questioned in the context of an internal IDF inquiry where they received a command level reprimand.
• The Senior Appointments Advisory Committee refused to meet with Elmakayes and hear his version.
• In his letter Barnea also wrote, “I cannot imagine that anyone beneath me would approve such an operation at all. In general, taking a 17-year-old, allowing him to sit for a year and a half—I don’t even know over what—while no one bothered to come and get him out of there. These are not our morals, not our values, it is beyond our red lines, and not within the realm of what is permissible or forbidden.”
• According to Gofman, he played no role in handling Elmakayes.
• If his candidacy is ultimately rejected, commentators have suggested that the current deputy director is ideally placed to take on the role. As is the Israeli convention, his name is not allowed to be published but merely referred to by his first initial “A.” He has been endorsed by Barnea, and is one of the most decorated high-ranking Mossad officials. Also for the benefit of the current government, he is also considered a right-wing ideologue.
• For all the recent success’s attributed to the Mossad, including the beeper operation and numerous successes in Iran and elsewhere, it would seem logical to many that the successor come from within.
• Maariv credits other quotes to Barnea saying, “The Mossad director is the only job in Israel in which the person holding the job is not subject to any regulation. He does as he pleases. He isn’t subordinate to anything. He is not subject to any regulation. He operates in the dark, in the twilight zone, carries out dramatic operations without regulation and without oversight, makes decisions and does not have above him an orderly mechanism of review, oversight or approval.”
• “The Mossad director needs to reach that job when he has clear red lines, when he is capable of distinguishing between right and wrong, between what is allowed and what is forbidden, between the various aspects and consequences of Mossad operations. Gofman’s previous entanglements point to extreme unsuitability.”
• Unlike James Bond, the Mossad doesn’t have a open ended ‘license to kill.’ Operations that could potentially kill human beings must be approved by the SHR – the Service Heads Committee, which includes the Mossad director, the director of military intelligence and the prime minister’s military secretary.

Looking ahead: The High Court will review the appointment tomorrow, and could invite Barnea the current Mossad director to present his objections.

• The new head of Mossad is due to begin is role in early June.

New Names: Ahead of the Israeli general election, a slew of new names have announced their intention to run for political office.

• The latest name – and most senior new recruit so far – is Yoram Cohen, the former head of the Shin Bet, who yesterday announced that he is joining Yashar led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.  
• A week ago Eisenkot announced that Shaul Meridor will be joining his party. Meridor was the former director of the Budget Department in the Finance Ministry. If elected, he would be Israel’s first third-generation politician. His father Dan, was the cabinet secretary in Begin’s government and went onto serve as a minister for both justice and finance with Likud under Netanyahu, before forming the Centre Party. He continued to serve in a series of senior positions including minister of intelligence and deputy prime minister. Shaul’s grandfather Eliyahu was a commander in the Irgun and a Knesset member for the Herut faction (precursor to the Likud).
• Inbar Yehezkeli has also joined Eisenkot’s list. She is former senior official from the Welfare Ministry. She has also led several civil society organisations focusing on protecting women and was also a senior social policy adviser to then-finance minister Moshe Kahlon.
• Even before the merger with Yair Lapid to create the Together Party, Naftali Bennett  recruited senior female officials. The first of whom, Keren Terner, held a senior role in the Transport Ministry and is a former director-general of the Finance Ministry.
• Another one, recruited by Bennett is former director-general of the Communications Ministry Liran Avisar Ben Horin.
• In an effort to appeal to younger voters and reservists, Bennett also included Yonatan Shalev on his list. Shalev is a 23-year-old military reservist and founder of the “Shoulder to Shoulder” movement, a grassroots initiative advocating military service for all, particularly the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox.
• Avigdor Liberman’s party Yisrael Beiteinu has also recruited some new blood including Sharon Sharabi, the brother of hostage survivor Eli Sharabi and murdered hostage Yossi Sharabi.
• Also joining Liberman is Israel Ben-Shitrit, an IDF reservist who served as a deputy company commander and was seriously wounded in battle in Gaza in early 2024. He is a 40-year-old father of five from the southern town of Yeruham.  

Context: It is quite unusual to have so many political announcements before the election date has even been set, although everyone understands the election must be held by the end of October.

• All the attention around new recruits has so far been focused on the opposition parties that are jockeying and competing against the current government. They all intend to cooperate after the election with the shared aim of defeating Netanyahu and forming the next government.    
• According to recent polling, the Bennett – Lapid merger has not seem any dramatic change in voting patterns. They were hoping the move would increase their share of the vote and cement the pair as the leaders of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, but their differences appear to have put off some supporters that either perceive Bennett as too right-wing or Lapid as too left.
• There remains the possibility of further mergers with both Bennett and Lapid appealing to Eisenkot to join them too. Eisenkot’s support currently appears to be growing, but it is not impossible that based on internal polling he may eventually join them too. Alternatively, Liberman is also courting Eisenkot and is open to a potential merger.
• Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party has disintegrated in the polls and several of his current members of Knesset are also looking to join one of the other parties. In the latest blow, his founding partner Chili Troper announced that he was leaving the ticket. He could eventually join either Bennett or Eisenkot.      
• Writing in Maariv this morning, Ben Caspit described Yoram Cohen as the “hottest item on the political shelf.”  He goes on to describe the similarities between Cohen and Eisenkot. “Both are sons of Mizrahi families: Eisenkot’s parents immigrated to Israel from Morocco; Cohen’s parents immigrated to Israel from Afghanistan, which is why he was nicknamed the “Afghan” throughout his 35-year career in the Shin Bet. Both firmly believe in the motto, “Don’t whine, excel.” Both grew up in the periphery and ostensibly didn’t stand a chance of succeeding. Both succeeded in reaching the top of the Israeli defence pyramid. Both are modest, country-first patriots. Both were raised in religious households. Eisenkot, as an adult, is not religious; Cohen is—the best of the national-religious community.”
• There is also speculation over who will join the Likud. Among the rumours, Yossi Cohen, the former head of Mossad, would be the biggest ‘star’. There have also been suggestions that Netanyahu will recruit family members of victims of October 7, that would help him deal with criticism over the government’s failure. The Likud is one of the only remaining parties with internal democratic mechanisms that sees party members vote for the list. However, it has also been customary to give the party leader discretion to reserve some slots to place his candidates on the list. This may be the case again this time, though there are also calls to cancel the internal primaries with the fear that it will further unsettle the party and lead to more rifts and factions.
• In the background there are rumours of another new party – “Likud 2.0” that would be led by current or former Likud ministers such as Gilad Erdan (former Israeli ambassador to the UN), Yuli Edelstein (former speaker of the Knesset) and Moshe Kahlon (former Finance Minister).

Looking ahead: The election date has not yet been set, but must be held by October 27, the latest and declared three months in advance.

• One theory suggests Netanyahu may go a week early and settle for October 20, which would avoid association with the number seven [i.e. the disaster of October 7].
• His ultra-Orthodox partners are keen for a date in early September. This is seen as their optimal time, as it falls in the lead up to the Jewish High Holidays and numerous opportunities to reach their target audience to shore up their support.
• Another theory suggests Netanyahu would prefer a date that he can best present diplomatic and security achievements. This could be earlier or later, depending if for example he can sell a deal with Iran as a political win.