What’s happened: Israel affirms it will continue to act against threats.

• On Monday evening Prime Minister Netanyahu along with his Minister of Defence and the IDF Chief of Staff issued a joint statement declaring, “The IDF will continue to act with determination in order to neutralise threats against our soldiers and our citizens, demolish terrorist infrastructure, and maintain the security zone in southern Lebanon.”
• The comments followed reports from the talks in Switzerland between the US and Iran that Israel would not be party to a new de-confliction mechanism in Lebanon.  Instead, the US would serve as Israel’s representative, and Iran would represent Hezbollah, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar.
• Against the backdrop of those talks, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated earlier in the day that his directive to the IDF were clear and had not changed, adding that “Our fighters in southern Lebanon have full freedom of action to thwart any direct or developing threat to them or to the residents of the North. The IDF has no restrictions on this matter.”
• While the IDF maintains full freedom of action inside the yellow line security zone, and can act to remove immediate threats, the US has placed restrictions to act elsewhere, specifically Beirut, but also elsewhere in Lebanon. A senior Israeli official told Channel 13 News, “The message we’ve gotten from the Americans in the past few weeks is clear: ‘You had credit to operate without restrictions, and that’s over.’”
• On Monday evening, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir met in Gaza with senior IDF officers to discuss developments in the Strip and Hamas’s ongoing military buildup. The recommendation that was presented at the meeting was to begin an operation in the Gaza Strip to disarm Hamas—and to leave the intensity of this operation to the government’s discretion. However, the concern and assessment aired at the meeting was that President Trump would prevent a major operation and would agree to be flexible with Hamas on the issue of disarmament.
• The IDF also announced that over the weekend security forces  eliminated Sabai Zaher Abd al-Hamid Abu Hasna, a Nukhba terrorist in Hamas’ military wing.  According to the IDF, “Throughout the war, Abu Hasna planted explosive devices and recently attempted to advance terrorist attacks targeting IDF troops operating in the area. Abu Hasna infiltrated Israeli territory during the October 7th massacre and took part in holding Omer Shem Tov hostage in Hamas captivity.”
• Abu Hasna was eliminated alongside Ahmed Samir Muhammad Washah, who the IDF say “simultaneously served as a photographer for the Al Jazeera network and as a sniper operative for Hamas.”
• In a separate strike last week, the IDF eliminated two more operatives in the military wings of the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). According to the IDF, they operated within a Hamas-run financial network responsible for transferring funds into Gaza. As a result, they “facilitated the transfer of more than half a billion NIS (~£126 million) to Hamas’ military wing by operating a network of dozens of couriers and money exchangers in Turkey and the Gaza Strip. With these funds, Hamas has continued, particularly in recent months, to pay salaries to its terrorists and finance terror attacks against IDF troops and the civilians of the State of Israel, in violation of the ceasefire agreement.”

Context: Israel faces a challenging balancing act maintaining its freedom of operation in both Lebanon and Gaza, as well as how they maintain close coordination with the US.

• Despite these latest IDF operations (described above) it is also understood that the Trump administration recently blocked other planned Israeli military operations in Gaza. The operation was discussed by senior Israeli officials, but the Americans were reportedly unimpressed and asked Israel not to pursue it at the current juncture in time.
• There is ongoing concern that not enough pressure is being brought to bear by the US and their international partners to force Hamas into fulfilling its commitment to disarm. Two weeks ago, a delegation headed by Khalil al-Hayya travelled to Egypt to begin talks about the second stage of the Trump peace plan and Hamas’s disarmament. Hamas officials argued that they could not comply because of Israel’s ongoing targeted attack and instead would only agree to disarm after a Palestinian state was established.
• In lieu of any progress on disarmament, Israel is expanding its control of the Strip, now holding close to 70 per cent of the enclave. Despite the lack of progress the US are aiming to begin reconstruction in parts of Gaza that are under IDF control.
• One of the current agenda items is where to base the technocratic National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. Israel is insisting that it be built near the yellow line so as to keep the NCAG out of Hamas’s control, but the Palestinian Authority has demanded that the structure be built deep inside Gaza territory. Israeli officials are worried that acceding to this demand will have a negative impact on disarmament, and on the reconstruction and future administration of the Gaza Strip, producing a situation in which Hamas is able to perpetuate its rule under the auspice of the NCAG.
• Meanwhile Hamas remains armed and has continued to recruit and train operatives as well as preparing for future military operations against the IDF in Gaza.
• Another concern is the amount of aid entering into Gaza now exceeds demand. Hamas is able to control the supply and stockpiling goods and selling the aid for profit.      
• Last week secret documents that were discovered in Gaza reveal that just before the October 7 assault, Hamas’s leadership discussed the need to prevent at any cost the steps being taken to normalise relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Two weeks before the massacre, Yahya Sinwar fiercely attacked Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and – just a few days before October 7 – said that there was no choice but to take extraordinary measures to generate a strategic reversal.  The documents include minutes of a meeting in Tehran between Iranian officials and a Hamas delegation.

Looking ahead: The latest round of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon are scheduled to begin later today in Washington. The parties are expected to discuss reaching an agreement about an initial IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

• Israel is thought to have drafted plans to resume fighting Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but will presumably seek to coordinate with the US first.

What’s happened: A publicly undeclared ceasefire appears to have taken hold in southern Lebanon over the past day after a particularly deadly weekend for the IDF in combat with Hezbollah.

• Over the weekend, five Israeli soldiers were killed in two incidents, with a further thirteen injured. Since the formal ceasefire went into effect in on  17th April, 24 IDF soldiers have been killed in combat with Hezbollah.
• Foreign Minister  Gideon Saar said that Israel will respect the ceasefire as long as Hezbollah does as well. “We don’t have territorial ambitions in Lebanon,” he posted in a summary of a call with his New Zealand counterpart, “but we will not withdraw from the security zone and expose our citizens to Hezbollah’s attacks and possible invasion. Lebanon’s sovereignty has been breached for decades to this very day by Iran’s indirect occupation by Hezbollah. It’s the interest of both Lebanon and Israel that Hezbollah’s terror state will be dismantled.”
• Tensions in Lebanon occur against the backdrop of talks in Switzerland that began yesterday between Iran and the US, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan.
• The talks were attended by US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The US delegation also included Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while the Iranian one had parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani was there too, as were both the Prime Minister and top military officer of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif and Asim Munir.
• After 18 hours of talks, the sides agreed to establishment of a “de-confliction cell” to end the fighting in Lebanon and reportedly agreed on a “roadmap” framework for negotiations to reach an agreement within the sixty days stipulated by the Memorandum of Understanding.

Context: Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire are intended to leave Israel in a strategic bind. Either it responds, and risks the ire of the Trump administration, as well as blame for scuttling talks to end the war in Iran, or it does nothing, allowing Hezbollah to attack it at will and formalising a linkage between Tehran’s priorities and the vulnerability of Israel’s northern towns and villages.

• The focus of Israel’s paused, but essentially ongoing, military effort in Lebanon is on Nabatiyeh and the Ali Taher ridge, especially around the Beaufort Castle. Both sites are beyond the so-called Yellow Line, and both bring with them historical resonances from Israel’s previous wars in Lebanon.
• Nabatiyeh is remembered in Israel as the place where Israel irrecoverably lost support from Lebanon’s Shias in an incident in October 1983. The bitter experience is widely studied as an example of what to avoid in any counterinsurgency situation.
• The Beaufort Castle is remembered for the pitched battle to conquer it from the PLO early in the 1982 war and the triumphant but politically tone deaf appearance of senior politicians there the next day. It was also the most well documented site of Israel’s hasty withdrawal in May 2000, memorialised in a best-selling novel and popular film.
• In the Ali Taher ridge itself, the IDF has located a massive underground complex of Hezbollah terrorists. Here is where the IDF has located the Badr’s unit’s nerve centre, including at least one tunnel that is one kilometre among an extensive system of tunnels, parts of which are inside the Yellow Line area of southern Lebanon. These are the tunnels Hezbollah would use in an October 7-style raid on northern Israel.
• Since the weekend, the IDF has surrounded the facility and believes it is now in control of all the tunnel compound’s access points. It is estimated that there at least 30 Hezbollah fighters besieged in the complex. In line with US demands, the IDF is not opening fire for now.
• Israeli officials quoted in the media believe that once the operation around the tunnel complex is ended, the IDF can begin staged withdrawals of territory in Lebanon, particularly territory north of the Yellow Line.
• For Israel, it is important that any withdrawal be seen as an Israeli initiative or the outcome of Israel-Lebanese negotiations, and not as something dictated to Israel by the needs of US-Iran diplomacy.
• Despite pressure from the political echelon (responding to pressure from the Trump Administration), senior IDF officials are unanimous that Israeli border communities cannot be protected right now from Hezbollah attack, whether that is in antitank missiles being fired at homes, as was the case from late 2023 until November 2024, or in an October 7-like raid into a civilian community, without an IDF presence close to the border in southern Lebanon.

Looking ahead: The political leaders who attended the talks in Switzerland are due to fly home today, but the technical teams will continue the talks on site and in person.

• Talks between Israel and Lebanon are expected to be renewed today. Israel is interested in reaching an agreement with Lebanon that would see its forces leave small pockets of territory and hand them over directly to the Lebanese Armed Forces. These would serves as “pilot zones” where the LAF would prove that it could keep Hezbollah out and take responsibility for territory vacated by Israel.

What’s happened: Four IDF soldiers were killed Thursday night when a Hezbollah drone exploded on troops near the village of Kfartebnit in southern Lebanon.

• Among those killed was Lt. Col. Dor Gedalia Ben Simhon, 32, of Kibbutz Beit Hashita, commander of the 52nd Battalion of the 401st Armoured Brigade.
• In response to Hezbollah’s ongoing  violations of the ceasefire, the IDF struck more than 80 command centres, terrorists, launch positions, and additional terrorist infrastructure sites in the area of Nabatieh and additional areas in southern Lebanon.
• Meanwhile, Iran’s negotiating delegation has suspended its trip to Switzerland due to continued Israeli operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, despite the recent signing of the MOU between the US and Iran.
• US Vice President Vance delivered a speech featuring unusually harsh criticisms of Israel. Vance warned that Israel should not “attack” the only powerful ally they have in the world, and that Trump was “the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time.”
• Furthermore, Vance stated that Israel was built with American money, in reference to the defensive ammunition used in Israel which is made in the US. Vance did, however, make clear that Israel has the right to defend itself in reference to the ceasefire with Lebanon. Vance also called out critics of the MOU, stating that the deal that was signed forces Iran to change its behaviour before receiving any benefits.
• The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament also stated that Lebanon is committed to the ceasefire in place with Israel, and Hezbollah will adhere to it as long as Israel does as well. This comes as Hezbollah attacks continued on Thursday, in which another IDF soldier Master Sergeant (res.) Alexander Filin was killed along with 6 more injured.

Context: Israel has stated that they reject the provision in the agreement requiring an immediate and permanent end to hostilities in Lebanon. Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed to President Trump that Israel does not consider itself bound by the MOU.

• An IDF official has clarified that IDF forces will remain in the buffer zone 10km into southern Lebanon as long as the security situation warrants it. Israel won’t want to directly contradict and certainly not antagonise the US government, but as any self-respecting sovereign country – they will do all they need to do to protect their civilians and defend their national interests.
• Israelis remain puzzled by the agreement that appears to consolidate the linkage and influence that Iran has over Lebanon. It has been a long-standing US foreign policy objective to decouple Iran’s stranglehold over Lebanon and its support for Hezbollah, a proscribed terrorist organisation.
• Tensions between Israel and the US are likely to remain heightened, as the prevailing thought is that the US administration has moved from touting regime change, to now promising hundreds of billions to prop up a fundamentalist regime that has murdered tens of thousands of its own citizens.
• The Lebanese president has blamed Hezbollah for beginning the latest round of fighting, and for importing a foreign conflict at Iran’s behest, which is against the interests of the Lebanese people.

Looking ahead: Efforts to reach a separate deal Israel and Lebanon are expected to continue, parallel to any agreement with Iran and the US.

• There is heavy scepticism that the allotted 60-day period is a realistic timeframe to reach full agreement based on the MOU, and even if extended, if it can be implemented at all.

What’s happened: Yesterday in Versailles, President Trump signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) negotiated with Iran which will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch a sixty-day period of negotiations for a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme and the lifting of US sanctions on Iran.

• The MOU comprises 14 points in total.
• The first point declares “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” Lebanon, in fact, is mentioned three times in the first point, which includes a clause committing the US and Iran to “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon,” which presumably applies both to America’s ally Israel and to Iran’s proxy force Hezbollah.
• The MOU establishes a sixty-day period for the two sides to negotiate a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, extendable by mutual agreement. At the outset, the Iranians commit not to “procure or develop nuclear weapons.” Also, the US commits itself to terminating all sanctions on Iran when a final deal is agreed upon. When a final deal is agreed upon, it shall be endorsed by a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
• The US will end its blockade of Iran within 30 days, but otherwise maintains its status quo posture for the duration of the negotiation period. Once a final deal is reached, it will make a substantial withdrawal of its forces within 30 days after the comprehensive deal is signed.
• Iran will reopen the Straits of Hormuz for commercial shipping traffic immediately, though it is given 30 days to complete the removal of mines and other obstacles. The MOU commits Iran to keep the Strait open and toll-free for sixty days, the same period as the negotiation period for the final deal, but curiously does not link the two, leaving it open to interpretation what the status of this aspect of the agreement would be if, as expected, the negotiations taking longer than sixty days and the period is extended by mutual consent.
• A clause in the MOU committing both sides not to interfere in each other’s internal affairs would seem to be an official American abandonment of regime change in Iran as a political goal.
• The White House also released the full text of the MOU, something it had refused to do in recent days after it had already agreed to it but before the President signed it.
• The official text resembled the purported versions circulated by Iranian officials in the media over the past few days in most aspects, but with a few differences. The agreed text does not explicitly call for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and does not allow (for now) Iran to charge tolls for the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait, despite rumours and Iranian claims to the contrary over the past week.
• Trump’s speech last night at the G7 was full of criticisms of Israel, its war in Lebanon, and Prime Minister Netanyahu. In this it continued a theme Trump has warmed to repeatedly in recent days.
• The President once more criticised Israel’s use of force in Lebanon, saying, “You don’t have to knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that’s from Hezbollah.”
• He unsubtly referred to Israel as “a very small partner,” though in this he was quoting something Prime Minister Netanyahu said to him.
• He also dug up an incident from the distant past, when, according to him, the US and Israel endeavoured to eliminate Qassem Soleimani in a joint operation in 2020, but at the last minute Prime Minister Netanyahu opted out of any Israeli involvement. Ultimately, the US successfully eliminated Soleimani on its own. Few in Israel regretted the elimiation and few regretted that Israel wasn’t directly involved.
• Though the diplomatic drama has put the war in Lebanon mostly on pause, it has not stopped it entirely. IDF soldiers moving on foot near the Litani River were hit by a Hezbollah IED yesterday. The device killed Master Sgt. Alexander Filin, a 29-year-old reservist from Haifa, and injured six others, including a female soldier and a deputy commander. Filin made aliyah from Ukraine as a teenager. In 2018, on the occasion of Israel’s 70th Independence Day, he was the recipient of the President’s Citation for Outstanding Soldiers for his courage in an incident where he successfully stopped a terrorist trying to carry out a stabbing attack.

Context: The agreement has almost universally been seen in Israel as a diplomatic and military catastrophe.

• Israel media commentary was scathing in its assessment of the agreement and of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s management of the war effort.
• Writing on the online news site Walla, Idan Kweller calls the agreement a “formative moment” in US-Israel relations. “This wasn’t Israel’s abandonment, but it definitely was a stern warning to Netanyahu. American support exists under the Trump administration, as long as Israel doesn’t stand in the way of clinching the larger deal.”
• In Haaretz, Amos Harel argues that “The Iran affair is emerging as the second worst fiasco in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long history, following Hamas’ massacre in southern Israel on October 7, 2023.”
• Avner Vilan, in a posted commentary on N12, wrote, “At best, we’ve bought ourselves an insanely expensive nuclear agreement, without missiles and without proxies [being included] and with endless Iranian immunity. At worst, we’ve given Iran a lifeline, while it has barely given anything at all in return. In both cases, the same question remains: Why did we start this to begin with?”
• Most Israeli analysts doubt that Iran and the US can actually come to a final agreement within 60 days — or at all, even with the deadline being extended. In such a scenario, Iran would not be able to enjoy significant sanctions relief and would probably not be able to see the promised relief fund of some $300 billion get off the ground, but it would begin recovering frozen assets and it would start selling oil, even if only to countries outside the direct US orbit. This would allow it to rapidly rebuild the defence facilities that it lost in the war and to reflate its economy, removing the main source of domestic pressure on the regime.
• Even if negotiations did seem to be making serious progress, Iran could presumably threaten to close the Straits once more or attempt to reach an arrangement with the Omanis about “service fees,” as long as that was after 60 days — a deadline no one believes can be met anyway.

Looking ahead: US-led efforts to reach an agreement between Lebanon and Israel continue apace.

• President Trump’s remarks earlier this week about having Syria, under its post-Assad regime, take responsibility for fighting Hezbollah rattled Israelis, Lebanese, and for that matter, Syrians too. Israeli media reported that the new Mossad head Roman Gofman suggested to the Cabinet taking the proposal seriously, but was overruled by Prime Minister Netanyahu.
• Meanwhile, a quiet effort is underway to arrange a public meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Washington, possibly with the participation of President Trump too.

What’s happened: Iran fired ten missiles at northern Israel yesterday evening, acting on its threat to retaliate for an Israeli strike on Beirut.

• Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force struck military and infrastructure targets across western and central Iran, including radars and anti-aircraft batteries, which will help facilitate operational freedom moving forward.
• A single ballistic missile was fired by the Houthis in Yemen at central Israel at around 6:00 local time this morning. Iran then fired a number of missiles at central Israel roughly an hour later. All of the incoming projectiles were intercepted by IDF air-defence systems.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump spoke yesterday in the aftermath of Iran’s first missile barrage on northern Israel. According to Israeli media reports Trump said that he believes that Israel had “retaliated enough and should not retaliate further.”
• Earlier Trump said in an interview to the Financial Times that Netanyahu would have no choice but to accept a deal with Iran. He stressed that he is the one who makes the decisions, not Netanyahu.
• IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Defrin said, “The regime is trying to create a new equation, when it directly fires at our territory in response to IDF attacks on the Dahiya Quarter. We will not allow this. We attacked the Dahiya Quarter following Hezbollah’s endless fire on communities in northern Israel. The IDF will continue to operate throughout Lebanon and will intensify its strikes on the Hezbollah terrorist organisation. We will not allow fire to continue at the citizens of the State of Israel.”
• Earlier on Sunday morning, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israeli communities for the first time in four days. Two rockets that were fired at Ramot Naftali and Yiftah were intercepted.

Reactions: Domestically the Israeli government faced more criticism.

• Leader of the Together Party Bennett said, “This is a test moment: is Israel a sovereign country that is capable of defending itself? Countenancing or a token response will signal to the enemy that our citizens’ blood has been made forfeit. That is why Israel must act powerfully and effectively. On this issue, all of us, all citizens of Israel, stand together.”
• Yisrael Beiteinu leader Liberman also called for powerful Israeli retaliation: “Enough with the containment. We have to respond immediately and to strike Iran’s strategic infrastructure.”
• The Democrats leader Golan said, “Our enemies see what everyone sees: Netanyahu is weak. Despite the military achievements, our enemies see that Netanyahu is a weak and failed leader. They see the string of failures, the political indecision and the personal politics that have been running the war—and they have concluded that Netanyahu is weak and that we can be attacked.”
• Blue and White leader Gantz said, “The fighting in Lebanon should never have been stopped as part of the ceasefire with Iran. That strategic mistake needs to be corrected with powerful retaliation in Iran, but equally important, with ongoing attacks on the Dahiya.”

Context: There is a consensus in Israel that Iran cannot be allowed to create a new equation that Israeli action in Lebanon elicits an attack from Iran.

• This explicit linkage did not exist before the war that began three months ago, and despite forty days of bombardment, Israel is concerned that at the current juncture Iran appears to be emboldened. This is partly explained by Trump’s apparent eagerness to do a deal that has allowed Iran to exert further demands.
• Israel is well disposed to reach a ceasefire with Lebanon and even an eventual peace agreement, but the stranglehold that Iran maintains through Hezbollah has to be broken first. At the end of last week the US government announced an agreed ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese government however shortly afterwards Hezbollah rejected the agreement.                  
• For weeks Israel had restrained itself from striking Hezbollah assets in Beirut – at Trump’s request. However after the latest barrage of rockets and drones on northern Israel over the weekend and two more IDF fatalities in southern Lebanon, Israel did respond by targeting a Hezbollah command centre in Beirut.
• In the Israeli assessment there remain over 2,000 Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon. Until they are removed Israel will feel compelled to continue its operations in the area.
• Israeli attention also remains focused on the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, despite not being part of the process. While Israel will be sensitive to US demands, it is perturbed by the non-responses from Gulf states have had to absorb ongoing strikes from Iran. That is an unacceptable situation from Israel’s perspective.
• Iran was possibly working on the assumption that as Trump wants a deal, he will therefore restrain Israel from resuming attacks. Israel for its part needs to mark out space from the US position, as it has a duty to defend its citizens from attack.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet will meet shortly and discuss the next operational steps.

• The IDF remains on high alert and preparing for several days of clashes. As part of the preparation it is planning to mobilise a large number of reservists and to deploy reinforcements along all the borders.
• A Houthi spokesperson has threatened to stop Israeli maritime traffic in the Red Sea.

What’s happened: On a backdrop of negotiations for a comprehensive US-Iran agreement, low intensity exchanges of fire continued in the last day.

• US forces fired at a Botswana-flagged tanker that was heading toward Kharg Island in violation of the US-imposed blockade of Iranian ports. The tanker’s engine was disabled in the attack.
• Following that incident, Iran launched several drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. According to American sources, the drones fired at Kuwait “fell short or broke apart” and the ones fired at Bahrain were successfully intercepted.
• The US subsequently responded by striking an Iranian military facility on Qeshm Island.
• There were no rocket attacks on Israel’s north overnight, as a tense ceasefire held.
• Over recent days, Hezbollah had expanded the range of its attacks on Israel as well as keeping up a steady stream of drone attacks on IDF positions in southern Lebanon.
• An imminent attack on a Hezbollah stronghold was reportedly called off at the last minute at the insistence of the Trump administration which pressured both sides to cease fire in the last 24 hours so as not to threaten the ongoing US-Iran talks.
• The Israeli Government yesterday approved a plan for a massive investment in Israel’s battered northern communities. The plan would allocate 13 billion shekels (about £3.4 billion) in addition to the already approved 7 billion shekels from earlier decisions (about £1.8). The money will go to reconstruction, grants to small business owners, wage subsidies for hi-tech firms based in the north, and several headline projects in the Kiryat Shmona, including establishing an emergency medical facility there and a partial relocation of the nearby Tel Hai Academic College into the city itself.
• Seated next to Kiryat Shemona’s mayor, Prime Minister Netanyahu spelled out the goals of the new investment plan, and said that his Government “is committed not only to the development of the North, but also to ensuring the security of the residents. There is no containment or leniency; we are acting against every threat in real-time.”
• The new chief of Israel’s Mossad officially entered office yesterday. Roman Gofman, a major General in reserves who previously served as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s military secretary assumed his new position after the Supreme Court rejected petitions against his appointment.
• At the ceremony yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu noted the Mossad’s central role in Israel’s longstanding conflict with Iran, saying that it “will continue to stand at the forefront of our struggle against Iran’s aggression. In continuation of the consistent policy we have been leading for years – we will not allow the Iranian regime to turn back the clock. We will not allow it to acquire nuclear weapons; we will not allow it to threaten our existence. This terrorist regime, which is destined to vanish from the world, and we will help it reach this goal, this regime will no longer threaten us with nuclear bombs and thousands of lethal ballistic missiles.”

Context: Though the US and Iran have not yet concluded an agreement that would definitively end the war which began on February 28 this year, both sides appear to believe an agreement is in reach. This was the main reason why an Iranian threat to quit the talks unless the US could force Israel to scale back its attacks was taken so seriously by the Trump administration.

• The administration not only pressured Israel to back down from a planned strike agains Hezbollah targets in Beirut, it also leaked the contents of several tense phone calls between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
• There were conflicting reports about what the planned strike was supposed to look like and what Trump and Netanyahu had agreed to beforehand. According to one report in Israeli media, the evacuation order for the Dahiya district in Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, was issued in line with an agreement between the two leaders that Israel would threaten to attack the Dahiya but not actually carry out the threat, the idea being that an imminent strike would pressure Hezbollah to agree to cease its attacks.
• At some point after the evacuation began, the Trump administration came under the impression that Israel was planning on going through with the strike and not just bluffing as had been agreed upon, and this is what led to the tense phone call between the President and the Prime Minister.
• Israeli decision-makers are concerned that the emerging deal looks similar to the understandings that held during the 1990s, under which Israel was only allowed to respond with significant military strikes if its cities in the north were attacked, while its options for military action in response to attacks on its soldiers in southern Lebanon were extremely limited.
• In the last seven years of the Security Zone (1993-2000), this understanding of the “rules of the game” led to many IDF casualties without the IDF having any real leverage over the Lebanese state or Hezbollah itself to stop them. It is particularly concerning now as Hezbollah has been able to use FPV drones to sustain a level of casualties on the Israeli side that is actually considerably higher than anything it did in the days of the unlamented Security Zone (1985-2000).
• The leaked content of tense phone calls between Trump and Netanyahu reverberated in Israeli domestic politics too. Israeli politicians and media figures, not all associated with the right, criticised the Prime Minister for capitulating to the President’s demands and not following through on his threat to attack the Dahiya. Others noted that Israel has so tightly bound itself to Trump that it has lost any freedom of action.
• It was not lost on domestic commentators that Trump explicitly invoked Netanyahu’s legal troubles as a lever of pressure on him. That he was willing to raise the topic and take credit for keeping Netanyahu out of jail (“You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass,” Trump was reported as having said to the Prime Minster) is one thing. That someone at the White House choose to include those quotes in leaks about the phone call is even graver, both from the perspective of the Prime Minister himself and the entire political system, already wound up for an upcoming election where the question of the Prime Minister’s capacity to manage Israel’s multi-front wars while on trial for corruption is a major issue.

Looking ahead: The fourth round of talks between representatives of Israel and Lebanon are due to continue today in Washington. The US will reportedly propose a plan where the US will directly train Lebanese Armed Forces to deal with Hezbollah and carry out any disarmament agreed to in the talks.

• Another idea to be raised in the talks is the creation of “pilot zones,” which would be designated blocks of territory where Israeli troops would withdraw and hand over the territory directly to the LAF. Assuming Hezbollah is prevented from reestablishing its presence in the pilot zones, these could be multiplied and expanded.