What happened: Hezbollah fired over 250 missiles and rockets towards northern and central Israel on Sunday, in one of its heaviest barrages.
- The attacks included UAVs, rockets, and long-range missiles which caused over 400 warning sirens to sound in the Galilee, Sharon, and Dan.
- Impacts caused some damage and a small number of injuries in Haifa, Kfar Blum, and as far south as Petach Tikvah (close to Tel Aviv). Ben Gurion airport also briefly suspended its operations yesterday.
- Hezbollah claimed it targeted the Israeli Navy base at Ashdod and an unspecified military target in Tel Aviv using advanced missiles and drones. While this is the first time the group has said that it targeted Ashdod, the IDF said it was not aware of the attack.
- Hezbollah has also shared a seemingly AI-generated photo showing damage to a highway from a rocket attack, with a caption threatening that the “fate of Tel Aviv would be the fate of Beirut.”
- The IDF carried out a series of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, in what it said was part of its “ongoing efforts to degrade Hezbollah’s capability to execute terrorist attacks against Israel.” Targets included weapons depots, an intelligence facility, a coast-to-sea missile unit’s facility, and Unit 4400 which is responsible for smuggling weapons from Iran through Syria into Lebanon. Many of these targets were in the Dahiya suburb of Beirut.
- The body of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a dual citizen of Israel and Moldova was recovered in the town of Al Ain on the Omani border. Rabbi Kogan was working in the UAE as an emissary of the Chabad outreach movement, best known for its adherents travelling to often remote locations and supporting Jewish life and practice in fledgling communities. Having been reported missing on Thursday, he is believed to have been abducted and murdered by a cell of Uzbek nationals who were thought to have fled to Turkey. The UAE announced it had made arrests in the case without providing details.
- The Emirati Ambassador to the US, Yousef Al Otaiba, has said that his killing “was more than a crime in the UAE — it was a crime against the UAE. It was an attack on our homeland, on our values and on our vision” while the US has confirmed that it is “working in close coordination with Israeli and UAE authorities”.
- The Israeli government condemned his killing as an “antisemitic act of terror” and pledged that it would use all available means to bring the killers to justice.
- On Saturday, Hamas announced the death of an unnamed female Israeli hostage who was “killed in an area that is under a Zionist aggression in the northern Gaza Strip, while the danger still threatens the life of another female prisoner who was with her”. This statement was accompanied by a blurred photo of a bloody shroud and a close-up of the hostage’s tattoos. Responding, the IDF said it could neither confirm nor deny the reports but was “in contact with her family and are updating them with all the information available.”
- A shooting attack took place close to the Israeli Embassy in the Jordanian capital of Amman over the weekend. Three police officers were injured before the gunman was shot and killed. Local media has described a police station as the attack’s target, and refrained from mentioning Israel in any meaningful way.
Context: Despite escalation of violence over the weekend, hope remains that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah can be reached in the coming days.
- Despite the reported mutual willingness of all parties (Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah) to agree on a deal brokered by US Special Envoy, Amos Hochstein, an escalation of hostilities and violence neither unexpected nor uncommon.
- In the days before a ceasefire, both parties often seek to reassert themselves with shows of force, which may partially explain Hezbollah’s targeting of central Israel and Tel Aviv yesterday.
- Despite the Israeli government’s apparent willingness to reach a ceasefire deal, opposition figures including Avigdor Lieberman are more strident, seeming less willing to accept a pause in hostilities as long as Hezbollah can continue firing on Israel.
- Iran often seeks to hit Israeli targets abroad, and over the past five years, it has intensified its international terror activities and been responsible for dozens of attempted attacks across Europe (including in the UK), North and South America, Africa, Australia, and Asia.
- Targets have included embassies and official Israeli representations, Israeli businesspeople and tourists, as well as synagogues, Chabad centres, and other Jewish community institutions. As a Chabad emissary in the UAE – which is geographically close to Iran – Kogan was likely seen as a soft target.
- While the UAE has been critical of Israel’s conduct during the war in Gaza, the two countries continue to share interests regarding radical Islamism and the threat from Iran and its proxies.
Looking ahead: Israel has reportedly agreed to a Lebanon ceasefire in principle, although some issues remain outstanding. There is hope that a deal could be reached in the next few days, whist the Hezbollah attacks are expected to continue till then.
- Last week, Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s Secretary General confirmed that the group had reviewed the US proposal, submitted a response, and now viewed the ball as being in Israel’s court.
- The broad contours are a reinforcement of existing UN resolutions: This includes:
- Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River.
- For the first 60 days, the IDF will remain deployed in the first row of villages.
- Instead of the IDF advancing further north, the Lebanese Armed Forces will operate in the space between the first line of villages and all Hezbollah fighters will be moved north of the Litani River.
- After this is completed, the IDF will redeploy to the Blue Line (the internationally-recognised border).
- Israel reportedly wants clearer wording about negotiations on disputed border points between the two counties and is not willing to commit on this issue.
- The US will lead a new international body responsible for monitoring the agreement.
- Israel is insisting the deal will also include US (and international) backing in the form of a presidential guarantee that it retains military freedom of action if Hezbollah violate the agreement.