What’s happened: Over the last 24 hours Hezbollah has fired several barrages of rockets and missiles at targets across northern Israel, and further south, including the Tel Aviv area.

• According to the IDF, five missiles were intercepted before they reached the Tel Aviv area, while one landed between Ramat Gan and Bnei Brak.
• Five people were injured with one reported to be in serious condition. The IDF says that the injuries were caused by a surface to air missile interception, although the local municipality and the police claim it was the result of a direct hit. 
• Yesterday, a teacher and mother of four, Safaa Awad, was killed when a Hezbollah rocket struck a three-story building in the Israeli Arab town of Shfaram. Reports suggest she was killed despite being in a bomb shelter, with the rocket directly hitting one of its walls.
• The Rambam Hospital in Haifa reported that 56 individuals were being treated after this attack, mostly for acute anxiety. A 41-year-old woman and 4-year-old boy are also in a serious condition.
• Meanwhile the fighting continues in southern Lebanon and in Gaza, especially in the northern areas of Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya. 
• Despite Israel’s efforts to facilitate the entry of aid into Gaza, the UN has confirmed that 98 trucks carrying food were violently looted over the weekend. It is unclear who was responsible, with Hamas denying responsibility and blaming local gangs. 

Context: As the IDF continues to degrade Hezbollah infrastructure and negotiations over a ceasefire progress, Hezbollah still maintains the capacity to carry out deadly attacks on the Israeli home front. 

• There have been almost 150 alerts this morning, with over 200 throughout Monday.    
• US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut this morning, with Biden administration officials saying they are, “making progress” toward a ceasefire agreement.
• Hassan Khalil, an aide to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, told Reuters that Lebanon had delivered its written response to the US ambassador in Lebanon. “in a positive atmosphere” adding that “all the comments that we presented affirm the precise adherence to (UN) Resolution 1701 with all its provisions.” 
• However, Israeli officials reportedly do not have high expectations for an imminent breakthrough. A political official told Israel Hayom that he didn’t believe an agreement was likely to be reached in the coming days, “Reaching an agreement is likely to be delayed because of Lebanon’s ambivalence.” He also emphasised that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
• One key issue remains gaining agreement on freedom of action for the IDF throughout Lebanon in the scenario in which Hezbollah rearms or plans carry out attacks against Israel.
• 101 hostages remain in captivity in Gaza for 410 days yet there appears little progress in securing their release. The Israel security cabinet once again discussed the issue but maintain their refusal to meet Hamas’s terms – to end the war and to withdraw IDF troops from Gaza.   
• Instead, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his consent to Mossad Director Barnea to continue to explore limited deals, aimed at releasing a small number of hostages in return for a temporary ceasefire.  
• The government also revisited the idea of offering a financial incentive plus safe passage out of Gaza for anyone able to assist in releasing a hostage alive. 
• Whilst Qatar has stepped back on its mediation role it now falls on Israel to rely on Egyptian mediation.
• It appears the Hamas external leadership has left Qatar for Turkey, although it remains unclear if this is permanent or even their final destination.
• In an effort to gain clarity on this, Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet, visited Turkey. He is thought to have met Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkish intelligence.
• Turkish sources have refuted claims that Hamas had relocated its political offices to Turkey and are instead only visiting. 
• According to US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller, the US is demanding that Turkey extradite the senior Hamas officials and hand them over to the US to stand trial. In a briefing Miller said, “We don’t believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in… a major city of one of our key allies and partners.

Looking ahead: Following Hochstein’s meeting in Beirut, Israel will await further clarifications about Lebanon’s position and Hezbollah’s consent to stop their attacks.

• Meanwhile in the absence of the deal, Israel plans to attack more Hezbollah assets in Beirut and carry out more assassination operations against senior Hezbollah commanders.
• Operations will also continue against Hezbollah infrastructure – particularly on their extensive tunnel network close to the Israeli border.

What’s happened: Over the last 24 hours Hezbollah has fired several barrages of rockets and missiles at targets across northern Israel, and further south, including the Tel Aviv area.

• According to the IDF, five missiles were intercepted before they reached the Tel Aviv area, while one landed between Ramat Gan and Bnei Brak.
• Five people were injured with one reported to be in serious condition. The IDF says that the injuries were caused by a surface to air missile interception, although the local municipality and the police claim it was the result of a direct hit. 
• Yesterday, a teacher and mother of four, Safaa Awad, was killed when a Hezbollah rocket struck a three-story building in the Israeli Arab town of Shfaram. Reports suggest she was killed despite being in a bomb shelter, with the rocket directly hitting one of its walls.
• The Rambam Hospital in Haifa reported that 56 individuals were being treated after this attack, mostly for acute anxiety. A 41-year-old woman and 4-year-old boy are also in a serious condition.
• Meanwhile the fighting continues in southern Lebanon and in Gaza, especially in the northern areas of Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya. 
• Despite Israel’s efforts to facilitate the entry of aid into Gaza, the UN has confirmed that 98 trucks carrying food were violently looted over the weekend. It is unclear who was responsible, with Hamas denying responsibility and blaming local gangs. 

Context: As the IDF continues to degrade Hezbollah infrastructure and negotiations over a ceasefire progress, Hezbollah still maintains the capacity to carry out deadly attacks on the Israeli home front. 

• There have been almost 150 alerts this morning, with over 200 throughout Monday.    
• US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut this morning, with Biden administration officials saying they are, “making progress” toward a ceasefire agreement.
• Hassan Khalil, an aide to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, told Reuters that Lebanon had delivered its written response to the US ambassador in Lebanon. “in a positive atmosphere” adding that “all the comments that we presented affirm the precise adherence to (UN) Resolution 1701 with all its provisions.” 
• However, Israeli officials reportedly do not have high expectations for an imminent breakthrough. A political official told Israel Hayom that he didn’t believe an agreement was likely to be reached in the coming days, “Reaching an agreement is likely to be delayed because of Lebanon’s ambivalence.” He also emphasised that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
• One key issue remains gaining agreement on freedom of action for the IDF throughout Lebanon in the scenario in which Hezbollah rearms or plans carry out attacks against Israel.
• 101 hostages remain in captivity in Gaza for 410 days yet there appears little progress in securing their release. The Israel security cabinet once again discussed the issue but maintain their refusal to meet Hamas’s terms – to end the war and to withdraw IDF troops from Gaza.   
• Instead, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his consent to Mossad Director Barnea to continue to explore limited deals, aimed at releasing a small number of hostages in return for a temporary ceasefire.  
• The government also revisited the idea of offering a financial incentive plus safe passage out of Gaza for anyone able to assist in releasing a hostage alive. 
• Whilst Qatar has stepped back on its mediation role it now falls on Israel to rely on Egyptian mediation.
• It appears the Hamas external leadership has left Qatar for Turkey, although it remains unclear if this is permanent or even their final destination.
• In an effort to gain clarity on this, Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet, visited Turkey. He is thought to have met Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkish intelligence.
• Turkish sources have refuted claims that Hamas had relocated its political offices to Turkey and are instead only visiting. 
• According to US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller, the US is demanding that Turkey extradite the senior Hamas officials and hand them over to the US to stand trial. In a briefing Miller said, “We don’t believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in… a major city of one of our key allies and partners.”

Looking ahead: Following Hochstein’s meeting in Beirut, Israel will await further clarifications about Lebanon’s position and Hezbollah’s consent to stop their attacks.

• Meanwhile in the absence of the deal, Israel plans to attack more Hezbollah assets in Beirut and carry out more assassination operations against senior Hezbollah commanders.
• Operations will also continue against Hezbollah infrastructure – particularly on their extensive tunnel network close to the Israeli border

What’s happening: According to the Lebanese LBCI network, Hezbollah has given a positive response to a ceasefire proposal.

• The Israeli-US proposal was given to Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament who both represents the Lebanese state and serves as a liaison to Hezbollah. Berri said that negotiations were progressing.
• Over the weekend, more than 200 Hezbollah targets were attacked from the air in Beirut, Nabatiya, and coastal cities in several waves of attacks.
• The targets included weapons storage facilities, command centres, additional military infrastructure and several high-rise buildings.
• Before the strikes, the IDF once again warned any civilians that remain in the immediate vicinity to evacuate.
• Following the strikes, secondary explosions were evident, once more signalling that the sites stored explosive material.
• In another attack in the Mar Elias neighbourhood of Beirut, the IDF targeted Mohmoud Madi, a high-ranking Hezbollah commander of the southern front who had fled north.
• In a separate attack, the senior Hezbollah Spokesperson Mohammed Afif was also killed.  According to the IDF, “Afif was a senior Hezbollah military operative, in contact with senior officials and directly involved in advancing and executing Hezbollah’s terrorist activities against Israel.”
• On the ground, the IDF made advances in the Al-Khiyam area in Southern Lebanon.
• IDF troops operating on the ground also located a Hezbollah training facility, which was positioned some 200 meters from a UNIFIL base.
• On Saturday, a Hezbollah rocket struck a synagogue in Haifa, just one hour after the end of a prayer service. The Avot Ubanim synagogue complex suffered major damage from the strike, but no one was hurt.
• Four people were lightly wounded while making their way to the shelter in Haifa and damage was reported in a Haifa neighbourhood after rocket fire targeted the area.
• Yesterday afternoon, around 15 rockets were fired from Lebanon, with some intercepted and the rest falling in open areas. Since the beginning of November, over 700 launches have crossed from Lebanon into Israel.
• On Friday, 21-year-old Sergeant Ori Nisanovich of the Golani Brigade was killed during an exchange of fire with a Hezbollah gunman in a building in a southern Lebanon village. 
• Yesterday morning, 21-year-old Sergeant First Class (res.) Idan Kenan, was killed in combat in the northern Gaza Strip most likely by sniper fire.
• A drone was intercepted last night in the Eilat area from the east. It did not infiltrate Israel. One of the interceptor missiles apparently fell in Akaba, Jordan. There were no reports of injuries.
• A second drone also from the east was intercepted over central Israel. Debris were scattered near the city of Yavneh.

Context: Israel continues to conduct an orderly operation against Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including limited, localised, targeted raids based on precise intelligence in southern Lebanon. 

• Most of the ground operation in the south has focused on the military infrastructure embedded within Shiite villages. The IDF have deliberately avoided Christian villages that were uninvolved, however Hezbollah infrastructure had also been found on the outskirts of the Christian villages near the Israeli border, such as Ramish.
• According to the IDF Northern Command out of the 200 firefights have so far broken out in the ground operation, including inside buildings with only a handful resulting in IDF casualties.
• There has been no formal confirmation, but the IDF have appear to be advancing on the second row of villages, around 3-5km from the border.
• The IDF appears to have had a high degree of success targeting Hezbollah’s short- and medium-range rocket launchers that have been used to target Haifa and its suburbs. At this point Hezbollah retains the capacity to fire dozens of rockets a day, but this is substantially lower that the perceived threat from months ago that envisioned over 1,000 rockets a day.
• The ground operation has been underway for roughly a month and a half, in which 68 soldiers and civilians have been killed. The IDF’s assessment of Hezbollah casualties to be over 2,250 with several thousand more injured.
• The ceasefire proposal is largely based on UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. It calls for Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon and says only the Lebanese military and UN peacekeepers should operate in the region.
• The assumption is that Hezbollah has shown flexibility in recent weeks on several key issues, including a principal willingness to withdraw from southern Lebanon, which the terror organisation had previously strongly rejected.
• The New York Times reported over the weekend that Iran had sent messages to Hezbollah saying they supported an end to war.
• However, one major disagreement remains unresolved: Israel’s demand to maintain operational freedom in case the IDF detects violations of the agreement by Hezbollah.
• The Lebanese government’s position is that Lebanon, Israel, and UNIFIL will implement resolution 1701 and that the US and France will oversee the ceasefire.
• The Lebanese demand also includes the immediate return of displaced people to their homes after Israel’s withdrawal, as well as the reconstruction of the area without external involvement.
• The mass displacement of over 1 million people in Lebanon, including Lebanese citizens, migrant workers, and Palestinian refugees, has created an internal crisis

Proposed deal: As outlined in previous BICOM briefings, there are a number of parameters being considered.

• The broad contours are a reinforcement of existing UN resolutions:
  • Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River. 
  • For the first 60 days, the IDF will remain deployed in the first row of villages and continues to remove all the weapons and military infrastructure. 
  • Instead of the IDF advancing further north, the Lebanese Armed Forces will operate in the space between the first line of villages and destroy / remove all Hezbollah infrastructure up to the Litani River.
  • After this is completed, the IDF will redeploy to the Blue Line (the internationally-recognised border). 
  • Israel is insisting the deal will also include US (and international) backing in the form of a presidential guarantee that it retains military freedom of action if Hezbollah violate any of the agreement.

Looking ahead: US envoy Amos Hochstein will travel to Lebanon on Tuesday as part of efforts to reach a cease-fire agreement.

• If he is successful, he is expected to then travel onto Israel to close the details of the deal.
• There is thought to be a 60 day transition period, which will ensure Israeli forces can redeploy out of southern Lebanon to coincide with President Trump’s inauguration