In this episode, Richard Pater speaks with Professor Eyal Zisser about the US-Iran MOU, political developments in Syria and Lebanon, Turkey’s regional ambitions, and Israel’s relations with its Arab neighbours. Professor Zisser also discusses Israel’s challenge of translating military achievements against Hezbollah and Hamas into lasting political gains.
Prof. Eyal Zisser is Chair of Contemporary History of the Middle East and Vice Rector at Tel Aviv University. He is also the author of several books and a prominent columnist for Israel Hayom, and previously served as Director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:07:00 – 00:00:25:01
Richard Pater
Hello and welcome to the BICOM Podcast. I’m Richard Pater, the director of BICOM, and today is Thursday the 9th of July. With so much flux in the region, I wanted to take stock today and speak to one of Israel’s leading experts in regional affairs. Professor, welcome to the podcast.
00:00:25:02 – 00:00:26:22
Eyal Zisser
Great to be with you.
00:00:26:23 – 00:00:49:21
Richard Pater
So, for way of background, as this is a professor at Tel Aviv University and the chair of their contemporary history of the Middle East, in the past, he was Dean of the Faculty of Humanities and the director of the centre for Middle East and Africa Studies. He was also the head of the Department for Middle East and Africa History, and formerly the vice rector of the university.
00:00:49:23 – 00:01:16:08
Richard Pater
He has also served in the past as a visiting professor in Cornell University, and a visiting research fellow at the Washington Institute. Professor has written numerous books on the history and modern politics of Syria, Lebanon, and the Arab-Israeli conflict, and he’s also a prominent columnist at the Israel Hayom newspaper. So, I think you’re expertly placed, ideally placed to answer the question of that on our agenda for today.
00:01:16:09 – 00:01:29:06
Richard Pater
Perhaps we can start with Iran. The MoU seems to be falling apart as of yesterday and Trump’s pronouncements. What’s your view on the deal and kind of the prospects now for implementation?
00:01:29:11 – 00:01:59:18
Eyal Zisser
Well, I’m not sure that we are facing a total collapse of this sort of agreement. I mean, clearly the Iranians are very stubborn. The Iranian feel that they had the upper hand. So, they are playing with Trump. He doesn’t like it. But first of all, it’s very hard to read what is in.
00:01:59:20 – 00:02:54:22
Eyal Zisser
President Trump mind. He can say something and in the same sentence he can contradict himself. He said, for example, that the Iranians are scams and that he doesn’t believe that they really want an agreement. And at the same time, he later said that, well, they call him. They are serious people. They want a deal. And when we look at what happened during the last two days, or actually tonight, last two nights, we are speaking about very limited American attacks aimed at military targets, which were attacked many times before.
00:02:54:24 – 00:03:33:09
Eyal Zisser
And I believe that this is some kind of sending a message and also the Iranian response. There is nothing new there. Limited response against the usual targets mainly, you know, targets in Kuwait, Qatar, the Emirates, weak states that are totally dependent on the Americans. So, we are speaking about the exchange of messages through this military operation, but I doubt it very much whether this is more than that.
00:03:33:09 – 00:03:40:21
Eyal Zisser
Clearly. It seems that the two sides are still interested in having a deal.
00:03:40:22 – 00:03:57:23
Richard Pater
And do you think from Israel’s perspective can obviously not part of the deal, but do you think there was anything there that is reasons for hope, optimism, that this deal can bring more stability and can end the nuclear program, as President Trump insists?
00:03:58:00 – 00:04:27:17
Eyal Zisser
Don’t know if any expert believe that this is a good deal. I can understand the American approach, the approach adopted by President Trump. I mean, the war proved to be useless. The military operation didn’t achieve any goal. The Americans and the Israelis had in mind, you know, bringing to the collapse of the regime. This is this didn’t happen.
00:04:27:19 – 00:04:58:01
Eyal Zisser
So, Trump came to the decision that, you know, this is the American way. Cut the losses and get rid of this crisis and go on, especially when he is approaching the midterm election in the United States. So, he is ready to give the Iranian, actually, everything they want. Clearly, this deal is worse than the deal Obama signed with the Iranian.
00:04:58:07 – 00:05:28:11
Eyal Zisser
But, you know, is the president of the United States and he can afford it. I mean, the United States is a great superpower. It could afford itself withdrawing from Afghanistan and before that, withdrawing from Vietnam, you know, thousands of miles separating between, you know, West and the United States. This is clearly not the case with Israel. This is clearly not the case with the Gulf states.
00:05:28:13 – 00:05:39:24
Eyal Zisser
They are there to stay and to face the increasing Iranian challenge. But that’s what Trump wants right now.
00:05:40:02 – 00:06:04:08
Richard Pater
And we’ve seen footage from this week of the funeral of the late Supreme leader. What can we learn about the stability of the Iranian regime? And kind of we sense, I don’t know if it’s misleading the popularity of the huge protests coming out morning the ayatollah, but is that is with a society that’s based in fear kind of how much can we read into that?
00:06:04:09 – 00:06:43:02
Eyal Zisser
It is believed that, you know, 90% of the Iranians do hate this regime, want to get rid of him, but the rate of challenging it. But having said so, you know, 90% means that this regime has the support of five, ten, 15 million people, mainly in the rural areas. We are speaking about the security apparatus, was speaking about the religious establishment, and this is enough to project the stability and strength, and this is enough to hold the entire system.
00:06:43:02 – 00:07:00:14
Eyal Zisser
So, I don’t think it’s a proof of anything, but it shows that this regime has enough support that can enable him to continue and control Iran.
00:07:00:20 – 00:07:27:01
Richard Pater
If we turn our attention to Syria. A couple of kind of interesting developments this week. We saw Macron playing a visitor meeting with al-Qaida, and then we saw al-Qaida himself being hosted in Turkey, which is not a surprise, but in the in the framing of the of the NATO conference. What did you make of those two events and kind of the status of Syria kind of within, let’s say, the Western and ally within allies of Israel?
00:07:27:03 – 00:08:06:19
Eyal Zisser
Well, let me add, you know, the important meeting between Trump and Charlotte. This was a very significant development. But there is nothing new here. I mean, from the early beginning, the Western countries, France, but also the United States were ready to welcome shower. Forget all about his guards pass and accepted as the pragmatic leader tried to present himself and almost.
00:08:06:21 – 00:08:28:18
Eyal Zisser
A year and a half past since he took power. And it seems that he has full control over the country. This is a very, very slow process. But from his point of view and from the point of view of his Western allies of supporters, is on the right way.
00:08:28:19 – 00:08:46:22
Richard Pater
And just on from that, I mean, the from the Israel perspective, there was talk a few months ago, it’s died down now about the idea of reaching some form of non-aggression pact with Syria. Do you think that’s still off the on the agenda? Do you think that’s still realistic and in Israel’s interest?
00:08:46:24 – 00:09:32:05
Eyal Zisser
Well, we have to remember two things. First of all, since October 7th, Israel has no foreign policy. It has only a policy of presenting, projecting strength and hitting everybody it suspects can emerge as an enemy or threat. This can be understood against the background of global seven. And to this, that, to that that this current government is focusing for the last 2 or 3 years on its political survival, that it’s fully dependent on the most radical and extremist wings within the Israeli society.
00:09:32:06 – 00:09:58:09
Eyal Zisser
So, we can’t really speak about any diplomatic approach to where words the Arab neighbours, including Ahmed Shah. So, there is still made it’s important that under American pressure, there are negotiations going on. There is still the.
00:09:58:11 – 00:10:22:08
Eyal Zisser
At least that’s what Shara says. He wants a deal, some sort of security understanding with the Israeli government. But Israeli government says it very clear they are not interested. They would prefer having military presence in the buffer zone. And rather than have some sort of agreement with somebody they don’t trust.
00:10:22:09 – 00:10:31:16
Richard Pater
You mentioned before, it’s a slow process. How concerned are you at the moment of the status of minorities, particularly the Druze community in Syria?
00:10:31:18 – 00:11:02:18
Eyal Zisser
Well, I’m very much concerned, but that’s all, you know, Western countries do not care about those minorities. And from sharp point of view, you know, this country was governed by minorities. Those minority communities suppress the Sunni majority. And now the Sunnis are in control of Syria. So why should somebody who didn’t have any problem with suppression of the Sunnis under the regime?
00:11:02:21 – 00:11:40:11
Eyal Zisser
Why would someone like that have having any problem with the suppression of minorities and has a very clear idea? Syria is a Muslim Sunni state where minorities may or may not allow to exist. But that’s his vision. And clearly, I’m concerning the long run as far as the fate of the Alawite and also the Druze minorities in Syria are not concerned.
00:11:40:13 – 00:11:55:07
Richard Pater
And we saw Turkey kind of gaining diplomatically this week when they were hosting the hosting the NATO conference. How concerned are you about their regional posture and the threat to Israeli interests that they may be projecting.
00:11:55:09 – 00:12:32:09
Eyal Zisser
Well on the and still diplomatic, I mean, frozen, but still diplomatic relations between there is still a Turkish embassy in operating in Tel Aviv. There is still some sort of a red line between the Israeli army and the Turkish army, as far as you know, flying over Syria, coordinating those flights. But of course, someone should be concerned when it comes to some declaration made by Abdullah and his colleagues.
00:12:32:11 – 00:12:45:23
Eyal Zisser
Clearly, Turkey wants to emerge as a regional power. And when look around it, Syrian and Israel as competing.
00:12:46:00 – 00:12:54:01
Eyal Zisser
Rival entities. So, so clearly, we can understand the.
00:12:54:03 – 00:13:28:13
Eyal Zisser
Roots of this animosity taking also into consideration, you know, the radical Islamic colours of the ruling party decade. So, we must follow it very closely. The two countries very close to the United States. And at the same time, I mean, following that declaration made by Erdogan. And we must follow it very carefully.
00:13:28:15 – 00:13:56:16
Richard Pater
And there seems to be I mean, in the past, we’ve spoken about kind of with optimism about the Abraham Accords kind of creating a new alliance across the region. On the other side, there seems to be a growing element led partly by Turkey, but also Qatar, that are kind of ideologically affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. That could also still bring in other Sunni states within that alliance that would cut Israel out.
00:13:56:17 – 00:14:04:24
Richard Pater
Is that kind of part of it is a real concern, or is that just kind of Israeli conflating those risks together?
00:14:05:01 – 00:14:28:00
Eyal Zisser
It’s a concern that it has to do with Israel. When you ask yourself why the relation between Israel and Jordan, why the relations between Israel and Egypt, why the relation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, why the relation between Israel and the Emirates are so bad, so frozen? It has to do with the policy of the current Israeli government.
00:14:28:01 – 00:14:42:13
Eyal Zisser
As I said before, this government is a phrase to touch the issue of what I would call, you know, political.
00:14:42:15 – 00:15:17:13
Eyal Zisser
View of the region. It was on meeting the military. But when it comes to discuss the future of this of the region, ways to develop relations with its neighbours immediately, as we know, its political survival is under threat, and the government always prefer or choose to the political survival over improving Israel relations with our countries, with the United States, with Western countries.
00:15:17:14 – 00:15:28:00
Eyal Zisser
So, this is clearly the challenge. If you don’t have any political.
00:15:28:02 – 00:15:33:12
Eyal Zisser
If you want doctor political approach to the.
00:15:33:14 – 00:15:48:10
Eyal Zisser
Current problems of the region and focusing on the military threats and the way to deal with them, you probably will not get anywhere. And that’s were Israeli stuck right now.
00:15:48:12 – 00:16:07:05
Richard Pater
I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, and we’ll probably talk about this a lot more as we get closer to the election. But do you think that the nature of the kind of that bottleneck is just with Israeli government, that with the, with the new Israeli leadership potentially it could unlock and rebuild some of the goodwill that was there in the past.
00:16:07:07 – 00:16:10:05
Richard Pater
And how do you see that process?
00:16:10:07 – 00:16:56:00
Eyal Zisser
Prime Minister Netanyahu signed the Abraham Accords so he could have, you know, developed his relations. I mean, it was also reported that before October 7th, Israel in Saudi Arabia were getting closer to signing an agreement. But since then, we can see what is happening. This is a different Netanyahu that is totally dependent on the right wing, extreme right wing in his government is afraid to move ahead, and the result is that we are stuck where we are.
00:16:56:01 – 00:17:00:02
Eyal Zisser
Maybe they might be a change in the future, I don’t know.
00:17:00:04 – 00:17:26:14
Richard Pater
And just one. One positive development seems to be the agreement that Israel is forging with the with the Lebanese, which seems quiet, quite significant. How confident are you that a combination of these pilot programs and the IDF’s forward posture and then when they’re replaced by the lab, the Lebanese Armed Forces, that they could really be a change to remove the threat of Hezbollah from southern Lebanon.
00:17:26:16 – 00:18:02:07
Eyal Zisser
What has seen more symbolic importance? I mean, for the first time, there is a government in Lebanon which expressed its readiness to sign peace agreement with Israel, to have normalization peace, Israel. But we all know that this government has good intentions but has no will and probably no ability to move ahead and fulfil its commitments. Because his Bella is much stronger than the Lebanese army.
00:18:02:07 – 00:18:11:15
Eyal Zisser
Now we also remember that it was only because of the Israeli military pressure that.
00:18:11:17 – 00:18:52:20
Eyal Zisser
A new Lebanese entity could emerge. A new Lebanese administration could be formed that, from the early beginning is opposing is. But unfortunately, when we were very close to decide the battle against Hezbollah, the American force, a ceasefire because the American, the Iranian force, a ceasefire of the Americans and said no deal without including in this deal the question of Lebanon and vice president was ready to give up and give it to the Iranians.
00:18:52:20 – 00:19:29:17
Eyal Zisser
And immediately the United States put pressure on Israel. And unfortunately, as we all know, Israel is not anymore. The independent state we used to know is totally dependence on the Trump administration result of, you know, a total failure of the Israeli policy towards the United States. And Trump decided that because of Iran, he wants Israel to have a ceasefire, stop hitting his father.
00:19:29:19 – 00:20:11:24
Eyal Zisser
So, it’s important. Let’s hope it will continue. It’s much dependent on the Americans, because if the negotiations between the Iranians and the Americans will be resumed, and the Iranians and the said it already will demand that it will have also connection to a future Israeli withdrawal from the from Lebanon. And President Trump said already that he I told Bibi, you should get out of Lebanon and Israeli will get out of Lebanon and will have the opportunity to rebuild itself.
00:20:12:01 – 00:20:20:03
Eyal Zisser
I doubt it very much whether there will be an opportunity to move ahead. Israeli Lebanese relations. So, we have to wait and see.
00:20:20:07 – 00:20:48:23
Richard Pater
And just finally on Gaza, I mean, I take your point about kind of the way that the, the, perhaps the lack of strategic initiative that this government takes in the realm of peace. But it’s not all in Israel’s hands. And, of course, Hamas also is failing to live up to its obligations to disarm. Do you have any hope that a technocratic Palestinian government can come in and politically kind of forge a new and new path in Gaza?
00:20:49:00 – 00:21:04:05
Eyal Zisser
Oh, of course not. And what we see is that his ballet’s rebuilding itself. It is ready to offer some gesture but is not ready to give up its.
00:21:04:07 – 00:21:36:03
Eyal Zisser
Weapons. And the once again, I don’t like, you know, Israel try and well had many military achievements, but because of the lack of any political process, is going to lose all these military achievements because it’s not enough to achieve military victories. The important things to translate them into diplomatic.
00:21:36:05 – 00:22:09:03
Eyal Zisser
Victories, to try and shape. Yes, Hezbollah or Hamas is out there to stay because you can’t get to the last warrior or member or activist of Hezbollah, Hamas, but you contain them. You can contain them politically. But once again, for that, you need some sort of a political process, and you need to adopt a political approach, which is not right now on the tape.
00:22:09:06 – 00:22:22:16
Richard Pater
Okay. Well, listen, this is where we are kind of treading water, I suppose, for the next few weeks and months, and we’ll wait and see if there is a change here and a change elsewhere. But for today, thank you very much indeed, professor.
00:22:22:20 – 00:22:23:17
Eyal Zisser
Thank you.