What’s happened: Senior representatives of the Board of Peace including Jared Kushner, Tony Blair and Nickolay Mladenov met yesterday with Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya and other senior Hamas officials in Egypt to discuss the board’s 15-point proposal.
- The goal of the current round of talks is to deescalate the conflict and to prevent the plan from collapsing before it can be implemented.
- The delegation visited Egypt for talks with Egyptian President Sisi, and they also met with a Hamas delegation led by Khalil al-Hayya. According to reports the delegation pressured Hamas to begin to disarm.
- They presented information that had been provided by Israel about Hamas violations, including its efforts to regroup militarily and to arm its operatives. This also included attempts to plant IEDs, deploying snipers to ambush IDF soldiers and infiltrating territory east of the yellow line.
- Also on the agenda:
- The mechanism to start the handover of civilian powers to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG).
- An initial deployment of the International Stabilisation Force (ISF), which will be deployed in the areas designated for the pilot programme.
- Planning reconstruction work in areas that are not under Hamas’s control.
- Meanwhile in Gaza, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out two air strikes on Sunday, one in the Nuseirat area and another in Khan Yunis. IDF officials said that both had been advancing terror attacks against IDF troops and had been designated “ticking bombs.” Both targeted killings were carried out after receiving authorisation from Prime Minister Netanyahu.
- On Saturday, an IED was detonated as an IDF tank was driving past, but failed to inflict any casualties.
- The Board of Peace representatives are understood to have told Hayya that progress with the implementation of the plan would result in an end to IDF strikes.
Context: A direct meeting between the Board of Peace and the Hamas leadership, is in itself a legitimising victory for the terror organisation. Two decades ago, it was Tony Blair himself (while serving as head of Quartet) who had insisted on three principles that Hamas adhere to: renounce violence, recognise Israel and accept previous diplomatic agreements.
- Two weeks ago Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected the terms of the US led 15-point plan. Netanyahu told his cabinet on the 9th August, “The IDF will not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed. And when I say the disarming of Hamas, it means heavy weaponry, lighter weaponry, all weaponry. And we are talking about genuine disarmament, not fictitious disarmament.”
- It is rare for an Israeli leader to explicitly reject a US diplomatic proposal. Some have explained this in the context of the upcoming election, where Netanyahu needs to restate his credentials as uncompromising on Israel’s security.
- Secondly, he is a conscious that in the past he has famously stated that an Israeli prime minister should be judged on his ability to say no to an American president, so this has presented him with an opportunity to do so, which he hopes will resonate with the electorate.
- In parallel there is growing regional pressure on Netanyahu. Eight Arab and Muslim countries issued a joint statement condemning Israel’s position, warning that it was jeopardising the efforts to make progress on implementing the plan. The declaration was signed by Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan—five Arab countries and three Muslim non-Arab countries.
- However, in practice (and in keeping with the US demand) Israel has raised the threshold for the IDF strikes against Hamas. The two operations on Sunday, (along with two other recent targeted strikes), were personally authorised (after an eight day lull) by the prime minister.
- The IDF operates in keeping with a key distinction between imminent threats to the troops and intelligence about a terrorist who is planning to act later. When an armed terrorist is spotted on the yellow line or while planting a bomb, soldiers are permitted to engage.Furthermore Israel has presented the Board of Peace with a document detailing 100 Hamas violations in just one week in the Gaza Strip. This follows an earlier document that detailed dozens of violations over a 24-hour period.
- All this is meant to reinforce Netanyahu’s message that there will be no IDF withdrawal from the yellow line without full disarmament in the Gaza Strip.
- In Israel’s favour, the Board of Peace has reiterated that it will not demand an Israeli withdrawal until Hamas has disarmed in a verifiable manner.
- As a precondition, Hamas is demanding that the Rafah crossing be opened, that the IDF completely halt its fire and that heavy equipment be brought into Gaza to begin physical reconstruction.
Looking ahead: Kushner, Blair and Mladenov are due to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials later today to discuss the proposal and to share Hamas’s positions.
- They are also expected to demand “parallel withdrawals” from Gaza if Hamas begins to disarm.
- They will also discuss the prospective deployment of a first ISF unit. This is expected to comprise of Moroccan troops that are expected to arrive within the next six to eight weeks. Their roles will include supporting the disarmament mechanism, serving as a buffer between IDF forces and the Palestinian population, policing areas cleared of Hamas and securing food distribution.
- If the negotiators are successful, the first pilot programmes are expected to be implemented in Rafah in the south and in an area in the northern Gaza Strip. Temporary camps will be built there for displaced Gazans, in which education, healthcare and other civilian services will be provided without any Hamas involvement.
- In the context of disarming Hamas, the US are also exploring the feasibility for integrating Hamas into the political arena and its participation in future Palestinian elections.


