What’s happened: Leader of the Ra’am Mansour Abbas and former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz formally announced on Sunday night that Segalovitz would run on the Ra’am’s Knesset slate. (Ra’am is now also as the UAL – United Arab List.)

• Segalovitz will take second place on the list, immediately behind Abbas.
• Abbas said, “Arabs and Jews together, with a professional who will spearhead the action. Every generation has a moment when fear and hope stand in the same room. Tonight, in this room, hope has prevailed. Yoav, welcome. We have shared work to do.”
• Segalovitz said, “I do not intend to change either Mansour Abbas or Ra’am, and the Ra’am won’t change me either. But we can cooperate based on trust, recognising differences on the one hand, and enlisting to work together on the other.”
• Segalovitz explained his decision in a lengthy post on X, where he wrote:
  • “I am a Jew, a Zionist, secular, an IDF officer, and a superintendent in the Israel Police. Mansour is an Arab, a religious Muslim, and a conservative. The thing that connects the two of us is that all of us are Israelis, and that is the shared identity. The brilliant radiance of that term, Israeli, has been dulled, and we are perpetually preoccupied with ethnic facets that divide, instead of our common ground.”
  • “The Arab population in Israel is 21 per cent; it is active and creative in industry, the economy, culture, education, and medicine. It is an engine of economic and social growth. Yes, there are differences between us. Jews and Arabs in this country have a fraught history, but we have a shared future. That shared future is in all aspects of life.”
  • “The Arab citizens of Israel experienced the war, and in the course of the horrific assault on October 7, more than 34 members of Arab society were killed, and Arab citizens were kidnapped into Gaza — six members of Bedouin society from the Negev. As the war unfolded, all of us, Arabs and Jews, sat in bomb shelters under missile attacks by Iran and Hezbollah; residents were evacuated from their homes, and Arab citizens were killed and wounded too.”
  • “The time for repairing the country is also a time for internal, societal repair. Twenty-one per cent of the citizens are also part of that repair. Arab society, with all its various shades and differences, is an economic, social, and cultural engine of growth for the State of Israel. It isn’t a threat; it is an opportunity for the State of Israel, and it is also a bridge to its neighbours.”
  • “We are in an election period, but my intention in joining Ra’am goes far beyond the election. Politics is a means for producing change. I want to build a genuine political bridge, even if there are problems — and there will be. There will be difficulties, and even if that bridge is rickety and wobbles, it will be laid, and it will be the basis for further political action that I hope a good many others, Jews and Arabs, will join.”

Context: Jews and Arabs have run on joint lists before, but these have generally been non-Zionist Jews as part of Hadash, which, although overwhelmingly Arab, positions itself as an Arab–Jewish communist party.

• There is also the rare example from last week when Yossef Hadad, an Arab Israeli, joined Ofer Winter’s new right-wing party as number two.
• However, this is the first time a prominent mainstream Jewish Israeli has joined a purely Arab (and Islamic) party list.
• During the brief government of change, 2021–22, Segalovitz (then a member of Yesh Atid) served as Deputy Minister for National Security. In that role, he spearheaded efforts to reduce violent crime in Arab communities.
• Segalovitz comes from the heart of the Israeli consensus. Born in Tel Aviv, he enlisted in the Paratroopers Brigade. Before entering politics with Yesh Atid in 2019, he served in several senior positions in the police, including founding the Lahav 433 Unit (fighting organised crime and corruption) and serving as head of the Investigations and Intelligence Division.
• As leader of Ra’am, Mansour Abbas has long taken a pragmatic approach. During the period of political stalemate and paralysis five years ago, he held negotiations with Likud before eventually becoming the first Arab party to join a governing coalition, under Bennett and Lapid.
• Ra’am represents the more moderate Southern Branch of Israel’s Islamic Movement. It justifies its participation in Israeli politics as part of its top  agenda item to improve the socioeconomic conditions of Arab citizens, rather than remaining primarily focused on the Palestinian issue. Abbas recently moved to detach the party from the Islamic Shura council.
• In the past Abbas has said he accepts that Israel is a Jewish state and seeks Arab-Jewish partnership within Israel, while simultaneously identifying as Palestinian and supporting Palestinian self-determination and a two-state solution. He argues that Palestinians and Jews should acknowledge each other’s national narratives.
• This move was preceded last week when the other Arab parties agreed to reform the Joint List (without Ra’am). Hadash-Ta’al will run together with the more extreme Balad party (which alone failed to cross the threshold last time). The new Hadash Party leader, Yousef Jabareen, will head the list, and MK Ahmad Tibi will rank second.
• In the 2022 Knesset election, Ra’am secured five seats and is currently polling to retain the same number of MKs. The Joint List, meanwhile, appears to be capitalising on the momentum generated by its reformation, with polls projecting that it will win between six and ten seats—an improvement on the five secured by the Hadash–Ta’al alliance in the last election.
• With both Netanyahu  and the opposition bloc struggling in the polls to secure an overall majority, the Arab parties, particularly Ra’am, could emerge as kingmakers after the election, potentially providing the opposition with the seats needed to cross the majority threshold.

Looking ahead: If Ra’am are successful, and if they were to join the next government formed after the election, Segalovitz would be their ministerial candidate. Depending on coalition dynamics and negotiations, he would ideally like to replace Ben Gvir as the Minister for National Security.

• On the other side of the political spectrum, the leaders of several small right-wing parties will meet later today to explore merging together ahead of the deadline next week. The meeting, which the participants tried to keep secret, will be held at the home of Nissim Louk, father of Shani Louk, who was murdered at the festival in Reim. The invitees include Zehut Party leader Moshe Feiglin, Economic Party leader Yaron Zelekha, The Reservists—Generation Victory Party’s Gilad Ach, El Hadegel Party’s Matan Yafe, Dedi Simchi, and Yair Ansbacher, and former MK and Beit Yisrael Party leader Gadi Yevarkan.

What’s happened: Brig Gen (res) Ofer Winter officially launched his new right-wing party, Amcha Yisrael – People of Israel in Jerusalem on Tuesday evening.

• Winter unveiled his party list, all of prospective first time parliamentarians. Unprecedented for a right-wing party, his number two will be Yoseph Haddad, an Israeli-Arab Christian, former Golani fighter wounded in the Second Lebanon War, and prominent pro-Israel international advocacy activist.
• It is currently unclear of the precise running order, but other candidates include:
  • Netali Shem-Tov, a veteran television journalist and news presenter, who lives in the northern most town of Metula on the Lebanese border.
  • Lali Deri, a prominent religious social activist whose son, Sgt Maj (res) Saadia Yaakov fell in battle in Gaza,.
  • Davidi Ben Zion, deputy chairperson of the Samaria Regional Council and a reserve paratrooper officer, who is also chairman of the association providing protected homes for at-risk girls.
  • Eran Ben-Ari, a lawyer and head of opposition within the national council of the Israel Bar Association, and advocate for judicial reform
  • Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, a British-Gibraltarian born lawyer and former deputy mayor of Jerusalem.
  • Sigal Kraunick from Kibbutz Be’eri, her husband was the Be’eri security coordinator Arik Kraunick who was killed on October.
  • Eli Gino, a retired colonel, formerly head of the prestigious Givati Reconnaissance Unit.
• In his opening speech Winter argued, that the upcoming election would be a choice between a military doctrine based on initiative and decisive action versus the current approach of containment.
• He said he would prioritise the integration of ultra-Orthodox into the IDF, relations with Arab Israelis who support the state, judicial reform and fighting organised crime.
• Winter said the party would bring together people who had not been part of the political or security failures surrounding October 7, but who had fought during the war, paid personal costs and were prepared to enter politics.
• Winter repeatedly emphasized the military and reserve-service backgrounds of his candidates, presenting the party as a coalition of religious and secular Israelis, residents of cities and border communities, Jews and Arabs.
• Confirming his right-wing credentials, he rejected the creation of a Palestinian state and called for voluntary migration from Gaza as the solution for the Strip.

Context: Winter’s new party and his entry into the election has caused a storm among the existing right-wing parties.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu and his advisers had for months been striving behind the scenes to integrate Winter into one of the existing parties, with  Smotrich’s Religious Zionists perceived as the closest match. The fear among right-wing activists is that the new party will split the vote on the right, and jeopardise right-wing parties from crossing the 3.25 per cent electoral threshold.
• Winter for his part refused proposals to merge with the either the Religious Zionist Party or Otzma Yehudit insisting on running independently. His target audience are right-wing voters who want a right-wing government, but who also want a different party from the ones that have been party of the bloc so far.
• He is also seen as a harsh critic of Gadi Eisenkot, who he refuses to endorse as prime minister, with the prevailing assessment is that he would prefer a government led by Netanyahu.
• However, prominent Likud figures are concerned that Winter could join forces with the opposition camp after the election, citing his close personal relationship with Liberman, whom he served as military secretary when the latter was defence minister. In the past he has also been a close confidant of Bennett too. Winter was accused of passing sensitive information to Bennett, allegedly bypassing the normal military chain of command.
• The new party enters a crowded space of other new right-wing parties, that includes:
  • The Unity Party led by former senior Likud figures Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein.
  • Israel First, led by Sharren Haskel, the former Deputy Foreign Minister.
  • Zehut Party, led by Moshe Feiglin.
  • Noam Party, led by Avi Maoz, who entered the Knesset last time on Likud’s slate.
• These in addition to other centre-right parties including Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party, Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper’s  Zionist Home – The Reservists, and the Economic Party led by Yaron Zelekha, former Accountant General in the Finance Ministry.
• According to the current polling all are expected to fall short of the electoral threshold unless they coalesce within the next two weeks before final candidate lists must be submitted.
• There is also a new ultra-Orthodox party – The Haredi Public that is a direct challenge to the long established Shas and United Torah Judaism parties. The Haredi Public is led by Bet Shemesh Deputy Mayor Moti Leitner is seen as more moderate than the existing parties, advocating for secular studies, workforce participation, and IDF conscription for anybody who does not learn full-time in yeshiva. It has yet to announce its full electoral slate.
• At the launch earlier this week Leitner argued his community faces an “existential danger” and the “last four years have proven that a vote for United Torah Judaism and Shas is a vote for the bullies of the Jerusalem Faction,” referring to the extreme anti-Zionist sect holding regular protests and riots against any ultra-Orthodox conscription.
• Leitner added, “To fight poverty, we will work to ensure our children acquire basic life skills and study math and English at a high level. We will work to expand appropriate educational frameworks, vocational training, and employment opportunities. We will replace the politics of poverty which fights against providing tools for job market integration and implement a plan that enables a life of Torah grounded in honourable livelihood and financial independence.”  His party is also currently polling under the electoral threshold.
• The creation of multiple new political parties is part of the course in Israeli elections. In the previous general election in 2022 there were 39 independent parties.

Looking ahead: Any deals and mergers need to finalised by September 8th which is the formal deadline for the submission of party lists to the Central Election Committee.

• After that there is a week to submit any appeals to disqualify lists or candidates. That process, including appeals to the Supreme Court need to be completed by September 29th.

What’s happened: Israel’s governing Likud party held its internal party primary ahead of the general election.

• Party members voted for the most part for Netanyahu loyalists to front the party’s electoral list. Garnering the most votes were Eli Cohen, who has served in several prominent cabinet positions, Amir Ohana, the combative Knesset speaker known for being Israel’s most successful gay politician and for being fiercely loyal to the Netanyahu family, and Yariv Levin, the justice minister who spearheaded the contentious judicial reform in 2023.
• Many prominent Likud figures from the outgoing parliament fared poorly in the primaries and are unlikely be returned to the next one. These tended to fall into two rather different categories.
  • First were the far-right firebrands whose provocative statements were often seen as alienating centre-right voters, as well as providing grist for the mills of anti-Israel activists abroad.
  • Together with them were senior Likud figures with more sober reputations who had been seen as potential Netanyahu successors, but whose loyalty to the long-reigning Prime Minister had been questioned.
• The Prime Minister, for his part, welcomed the results of the primary, describing himself as “very satisfied” with the emerging party list and certain that his party would achieve a “big victory” in the coming election. Leading party figures referred to the primary itself as a “celebration of democracy,” a nod to the declining practice of primary voting, a method that has been largely abandoned by most Israeli political parties.
• Gadi Eisenkott, Netanyahu’s most formidable opponent in current polling, called the emerging Likud list the “October 7 list” and noted that figures most associated with the failures leading up to the war’s outbreak are currently leading the party. Opposition leader Yair Lapid also criticised the Likud list, though his focus was less on perceived security shortcomings and more on the alleged corruption of many of its top figures as well as the prominent places granted to those pushing legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox men from the draft.
• Much commentary in the Israeli media focussed on the notably poor performance of female candidates in the party primary. Only one woman, Transport Minister Miri Regev, is currently slotted in the top ten positions on the party’s list. The next woman on the list is Tally Gotliv, at number 20. She is known more for her publicity seeking provocations that for any legislative achievements, and was widely seen as disfavoured by the Prime Minister’s inner circle.

Context: Turnout for the Likud primary was slightly higher than the last time the party put together a list for a general election in 2022. Of the parties roughly 140,000 registered members, nearly 54 per cent showed up to vote in the primary in the middle of summer holidays.

• The only other major party to hold primaries were the Democrats, led by Yair Golan that merged the historic Labour and Meretz parties. Their total representation in the outgoing Knesset comprises four MKs (as opposed to the Likud’s 32), but their current party membership is roughly comparable to the Likud’s, at about 112,000. In the Democrats’ primary, which was held entirely online, turnout was 86 per cent.
• The difference between the two turnout figures isn’t just one of enthusiasm, but also of procedure. Digital voting in the Democrats’ primary drove turnout up. The Likud had considered adopting a similar method in recent weeks, but as the party’s constitution expressly calls for in-person primary voting such a change would have been hard to pull of on such short notice.
• According to widespread speculation in the media, Prime Minister Netanyahu was also concerned that digital voting could help various blocs organise pooled voting and decrease the impact of his efforts to promote or push out specific candidates.
• The ideological range of the emerging Likud list remains broad. The primary’s top vote-getter, Eli Cohen, originally entered politics with the Kulanu party, a short-lived centrist party that eventually merged with the Likud. From the other end of the internal spectrum, Almog Cohen, a religious nationalist who entered parliament as part of Itamar Ben-Gvir’s far-right Jewish Power party, also secured a spot on the primary list. Bucking the usual format of defectors who secure a reserved slot on a new party, Cohen left his party and competed for a place in his new party’s list with no promises of securing a realistic slot.
• Many other slots were also not up for election in the primary this week. Netanyahu secured for himself the prerogative to name candidates for eight slots. The fourth position on the list was reserved for Defence Minister Yisrael Katz and the fifth  for Gideon Saar, currently serving as Foreign Minister, when his party was absorbed into the Likud in 2025, and the sixth position was
• Taken together, this means that the numbered ranking in the Likud primary actually translates into a lower number on the party list. Those ranking 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in the primaries actually get slotted (for now) on the list in positions 2, 4, 7, 8, 10, 12. And even this could change if there is some last-minute merger of the Likud with a struggling right-wing party that is hovering near the threshold.
• Netanyahu’s impact on the list is not limited just to his reserved slots. His inner circle were heavily involved in promoting favoured candidates and, especially, pushing down disfavoured candidates, with most of that effort reportedly focussed on the successful effort to eliminate Nir Barkat and David Bitan and the less successful effort to eliminate Tally Gotliv.
• All this is happening on a background of unspectacular polling results for the party in the run-up to the general election. In 2022, the Likud returned 32 MKs to parliament. In current polling, the party is predicted to receive between 22 to 26 mandates.
• In Israeli political parlance, that places several prominent Likud politicians outside “realistic places” for returning to parliament after October 27. Among those are a few known for getting attention in the media but otherwise being a drag on the party’s brand.
• Nissim Vaturi frequently made headlines for provocative statements about the goals of the war in Gaza, calling to “burn Gaza” among other things. May Golan made herself into a social media star with provocative statements both about Gaza and, before October 7, African migrants in Israel. Neither of them secured realistic slots in the Likud primary.
• Avi Dichter, former head of the Shin Bet and widely seen as one of the only people in the governing coalition with a serious security background, was also pushed off the party’s primary list. He had been widely criticised by senior figures in the security establishment, including former colleagues of his, for not speaking out against both the judicial reform and the management of the Gaza War. Speculation in Israeli media was that he was hoping to leverage his public loyalty to Netanyahu to place himself in a position where he could inherit the party leadership after Netanyahu left the scene. Assuming he isn’t promoted into a reserved slot, he will conclude his tenure in parliament this October.
• Another Likud figure seen as more sober and respectable who also promoted himself as a potential Netanyahu successor was former Jerusalem Mayor and successful hi-tech entrepreneur Nir Barkat. He too refrained from openly challenging the Prime Minister despite expectations from his former colleagues, including in the tech community, in the hopes of retaining the good graces of the Prime Minister and the party apparatus. However, placed at number 24 on the list, he is at serious risk of finding himself outside parliament.
• Barkat’s name was referenced in reports earlier this summer of an aborted attempt in the immediate aftermath of October 7 to push Netanyahu out of power. The Prime Minister pointedly signalled his lack of enthusiasm for Barkat by announcing just before the primaries that he was using one of his reserved slots to place another tech entrepreneur, Oren Dobronsky, in the eleventh position on the party’s list.
• Another prominent Likud politician who didn’t make it to a reserved slot was Idit Silman, who entered parliament in Naftali Bennett’s party and whose defection cost the short-lived “Change Government” led by Bennett and Yair Lapid to lose its majority, paving the path for Netanyahu’s return to power in 2022.

Looking ahead: Three weeks remain before the deadline for parties to submit their lists to the  Central Elections Committee.

• In that time, the Likud will enter names into the Prime Minister’s reserved slots, either promoting favoured politicians who didn’t fare well in the primaries or inserting other figures entirely who could be held to bolster the party’s flagging image.
• The Arab parties, too, will have to reach a final decision on full or partial mergers, as well as the positions in whatever joint list might emerge.
• In addition, the various centrist factions angling to pick off disaffected Likud voters will have to present organised lists to the public. Some may merge with others; some may disappear entirely.
• Polling data shows many of these hovering around the threshold, with one recent poll from N12 showing three different such centrist parties all below the threshold but together claiming nearly 5 per cent of the votes. Public awareness of the various new and small centrist parties is low enough that polling isn’t entirely reliable. But after September 8, there will be clear lists and, presumably, much clearer polling data.
• For now, Eisenkott’s Yashar party still holds a slight lead over Netanyahu’s Likud in most polls. Parties of the current governing coalition of right-wing and religious parties consistently poll around 50 mandates, while opposition parties together poll around 70, of which ten are for Arab parties. A majority of 61 is needed to form a government.

Full results

1. Benjamin Netanyahu — Prime Minister
2. Eli Cohen — Energy and Infrastructure Minister; previously served as foreign minister, intelligence minister and economy minister.
3. Reserved slot for a Netanyahu appointee
4. Israel Katz — Defence Minister and veteran Likud politician who has also served as foreign, finance, transport and intelligence minister.
5. Gideon Saar — Foreign Minister and former Likud minister who founded New Hope before returning to Netanyahu’s government.
6. Amir Ohana — Speaker of the Knesset and former public security and justice minister; Israel’s first openly gay Knesset speaker.
7. Yariv Levin — Justice Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and a leading architect of the government’s judicial reform programme.
8. Miri Regev — Transport Minister, former culture minister and a former IDF chief spokeswoman.
9. Reserved slot for a Netanyahu appointee
10. Ofir Katz — Likud MK, coalition whip and chair of the Knesset House Committee.
11. Oren Dobronsky — Israeli-American technology entrepreneur and angel investor, known in Israel as a panellist on the Israeli version of the Dragons’ Den television programme.
12. Yoav Kisch — Education Minister, former fighter pilot and senior Israeli Air Force reservist.
13. Miki Zohar — Culture and Sport Minister and former Global Likud chairman.
14. Almog Cohen — Former police officer and Jewish Power politician serving as a deputy minister in the Prime Minister’s Office.
15. Reserved slot for a Netanyahu appointee
16. Amichai Chikli — Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Minister; entered the Knesset with Yamina before joining Likud.
17. Dudi Amsalem — Veteran Likud politician and minister responsible for government–Knesset liaison, regional cooperation and an additional portfolio in the Justice Ministry.
18. Haim Katz — Veteran Likud politician, former Israel Aerospace Industries trade-union leader and holder of several ministerial portfolios.
19. Moshe Saada — Likud MK and lawyer who formerly served as deputy head of the Justice Ministry’s Police Internal Investigations Department.
20. Tally Gotliv — Likud MK and criminal-defence barrister known for her provocative speeches on legal and security matters.
21. Shlomo Karhi — Communications Minister, who holds PhD in industrial engineering and management.
22. Boaz Bismuth — Likud MK, former editor-in-chief of Israel Hayom and former Israeli ambassador to Mauritania.
23. David Bitan — Veteran Likud MK and former coalition chairman who previously served as deputy mayor of Rishon LeZion.
24. Nir Barkat — Economy and Industry Minister, technology entrepreneur and former mayor of Jerusalem.
25. Gila Gamliel — Innovation, Science and Technology Minister and long-serving Likud politician who has held several previous cabinet posts.
26. Reserved slot for a Netanyahu appointee

What’s happened: President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu met yesterday in the White House. Also attending were Secretary of State Rubio, Defense Secretary Hegseth, Vice President Vance and Trump’s top Middle East envoy Witkoff.

• Netanyahu described the meeting as “one of the best conversations I’ve had.” “It was a meeting with full cooperation, with mutual support, with understanding on the joint goal that Iran won’t have nuclear weapons, and also other goals.”
• Minister of National Public Diplomacy, and former Israeli ambassador to the UK Tzipi Hotovely, said the two leaders also spoke about the possibility of Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords.
• Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the talks, along with Trump’s earlier meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky, were “positive and productive.”
• In regional news, the calm of the last few days seems to have been broken.
• Yemen’s Houthis said they had fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker, accusing the vessel of violating what they describe as their maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea and ignoring warning calls.
• The US said it intercepted several ballistic missiles launched by Iran towards American forces in the region, in what Washington termed as “an attempted surprise attack.” Jordan said it shot down five missiles coming from Iran.
• This morning, US Central Command and Saudi Arabia armed forces conducted strikes in Iraq on what they said were sites of Iran-backed terrorist groups that were directed to attack American forces and Saudi energy infrastructure.
• Iranian TV reported that Foreign Minister Araghchi held phone calls on the Strait with his Omani and Saudi counterparts, although Tehran this morning said it ruled out Oman’s proposal for regional joint management of the Strait of Hormuz.

Context: Visiting DC for Lindsay Graham’s funeral, Netanyahu was at pains to show that his relationship with Trump is as strong as ever, and that he retains influence in Washington.

• Speaking to Fox News, Netanyahu said that he and the President see “eye to eye.” “What they find like today is a wall of granite.”
• Yet Trump has actively tried to play down perceptions of Israel’s influence. Earlier this week, he said that only he would decide whether to supply advanced F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, and that he did not need Israeli intelligence to tell him about Pickaxe Mountain, the area Iran is reportedly moving its enriched uranium.
• Netanyahu’s visit also came several days after the US paused its nightly strikes against Iran and declared that it was trying to negotiate a deal with the Islamic Republic.
• A Channel 12 report quoting a senior Israeli official said that Netanyahu believes there is no choice but to attack Iran again. The official suggested that these need to be “significant attacks — on nuclear facilities, capabilities that have been rebuilt, and sites that weren’t previously hit” which have the potential to “shake the stability of the regime.”
• At the same time, Israel does not want to be perceived as pushing Trump into resuming strikes, especially as this narrative has been growing since Epic Fury began in February.
• Trump seems to want to give space for a negotiated deal.
• Yet the underlying dilemma for the US regarding Iran has not changed. As long as the Iranian leadership continues to declare it controls the Straits of Hormuz – an international waterway which it took control over during Operation Epic Fury – tension will continue. And as long as Iran thinks that it won the recent campaign, it will refuse to compromise.
• Indeed, the attacks by Iran and its proxies over the last 24 hours – and the Iranian refusal of an Omani compromise proposal over the Strait of Hormuz – suggests a negotiated solution will not be achieved in the near future.
• Trump told Axios that he was still considering resuming a large-scale military campaign if negotiations fail, and that such a move would likely include a joint military campaign with Israel similar to Operation Epic Fury at the outset of the war.

Looking ahead: The civilian nuclear agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia is expected to be sent to Congress this week for review.

• While Trump previously said that the agreement would be dependent on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, the version going to Congress reportedly does not include any such provision on Saudi-Israeli normalization.
• The Times of Israel reported that the vetting process has been completed for an initial group of some 5,000 Gazans slated to be trained for an emerging Palestinian police force under Washington’s 20-point plan for the Strip.

What’s happened: A primary election was held for the main left-wing Zionist party. The Democrats, led by Yair Golan and formed by the merger of Labour and Meretz, held an open election where party members could select up to eight candidates on the list.

• The vote garnered much attention from local media, and the turnout was remarkably high with over 97 thousand voters casting their vote underscoring Golan’s efforts to rejuvenate the left.
• The turnout means that over 86 per cent of party members voted, a figure unseen in primary elections in Israel, where turnout normally hovers between 50 and 70 per cent. The Democrats are currently polling at around 11 mandates.
• A vote by the Likud Central Committee to authorise a new procedure and contingency plan for drawing up the list of Likud candidates for the upcoming general election – scheduled for today – was abruptly postponed this morning.
• At stake were both the Prime Minister’s demand to reserve eight slots on the list for his preferred candidates and an alternative procedure for composing the rest of the list in the event that a formal primary election would need to be cancelled due to renewed fighting with Iran.
• The dispute over the Likud primary has turned into a fault line about the power of Prime Minister Netanyahu over party institutions, the conflict between the party’s base and its need for electability, and tension over the security situation.
• Other than Likud and The Democrats, no other parties are planning to hold primaries for their list of candidates for the general election, scheduled for October 27.
• Hadash, the Arab majority party led for more than a decade by Ayman Odeh, held a party congress in May where Yousef Jabareen was selected to succeed Odeh. Delegates at the party congress also selected the party’s top candidates for its Knesset list, which is expected to be combined with at least one other Arab party for the general election.
• A raft of new polls shows little  change in the overall distribution of voter preferences. In all polls, the current governing coalition scores 50 or 51 mandates, and the opposition 9including Arab parties) 69 or 70. In at least one poll, opposition parties are able to reach 61 mandates even without the support of any Arab parties, whose combined total usually hovers around 10, but in most this is not the case.
• Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party has established a significant lead over the Together (Beyachad) list created by merging former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s two parties. In the most recent N12 poll, Yashar on its own leads Likud, with 24 mandates projected for Eisenkot’s party versus 23 for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s.
• Eisenkot is also polling above Netanyahu in head-to-head questions about suitability for Prime Minister 43% to 37%, with 14% saying neither and 6% ‘don’t know’.

Context: The same N12 poll posed follow-up questions separately to supporters of the coalition and the opposition with remarkable results. Among coalition supporters, normally understood to be more conservative and nationalistic, there was very high support (59 per cent in favour and only 19 per cent opposed) for the Government’s concessions to Ultra-Orthodox parties on the divisive conscription issue, which runs counter to the conventional wisdom that a right-wing public would be alienated by such moves.

• Opposition voters, when asked what the preferred course of action would be in the event that the Netanyahu coalition loses but the Zionist opposition parties on their own cannot reach 61 mandates, prefer by a significant margin the option of relying on a partnership with an Arab party. This was the preferred response of 44 per cent, versus 28 per cent who preferred to hold another election, 13 per cent who preferred a unity government with the Likud, and 6 per cent who preferred a coalition with an ultra-Orthodox party.
• The Prime Minister’s insistence on eight reserved spots for his choices is seen by outside observers as an attempt to push down some of the most outspoken provocateurs in the party’s ranks, including firebrands May Golan, Tali Gotiv, and Shlomo Karhi. All three are highly popular among party activists, and the first two are particularly popular on social media among right-wing voters. But all three are seen as liabilities in turning to the general public.
• With the party only polling at around 23 mandates, eight reserved seats for the Prime Minister’s choice, together with other set-asides for regional representation, would leave very few seats in realistic slots up for grabs for general primary voters. Under the current plan, the Prime Minister will select the candidates for positions 3, 5, 9, 11, 15, 18, 26, and 31 on the list.
• The Likud primary method also reserves seats for representatives of geographical regions, such as the Galilee or the Negev. The party also reserves one slot for an oleh (recent immigrant) and a minority (Druze, Circassian, or other non-Jew). These reserved slots are normally not held for politicians serving as ministers in Government. This, together with the party’s projected shrinking by a third (from 32 mandates to something in the low twenties) puts even more pressure on incumbent politicians, who will have to fight over a small pool of primary slots that will leave most of them out of the next parliament.
• All this has come to a head with the Prime Minister’s insistence on the central committee’s approval for a contingency plan in the event of a security flare-up that would let him convene an organising committee to put together the entire list and cancel the primaries altogether. The party’s constitution committee approved the plan over the vehement objections of some of the party’s MK’s, but the central committee vote scheduled for this morning was postponed until at least next Sunday.
• Members of the Democrats Party were asked to select between six and eight candidates to populate all the spots on the party’s list from position 2 downward. Position 1 is reserved for party leader Yair Golan.
• Many spots on the list are reserved for minority or female representation, but unlike in the Likud primary method, these serve as boosts on primary voting rather than a separate mechanism in parallel to primary voting. On gender, the party uses the so-called “zipper method”: the number 2 position goes to the top vote getter, which is then followed by the number 3 position which goes to the top vote getter of the opposite gender; Each position following that is alternated by gender. Party rules also provide a boosted ranking for three categories of representatives: former Meretz representatives, rural representatives (from the kibbutz or moshav movement), and minority representatives (from Israel’s Arab and Druze communities).
• The highest number of votes was received my Naama Lazimi. She was followed by Gilad Kariv, Efrat Rayten, Yaya Fink, Gaby Lasky, Omri Ronen, and Michal Rozin. The zipper method will not need to be employed for at least the first ten spots on the list. Lasky and Rozin’s vote count mean that the boost for Meretz representatives will also not be necessary. Soumaya Bashir earned the tenth spot on the list, so it is likely that the boost for an Arab representative will also not be needed.
• One notable outcome was the successful performance of leaders of the protest movement of the last few years (against the judicial reform and for a hostage deal), including Yaya Fink, Omri Ronen, and Moshe Radman.
• Another notable outcome was the poor performance of anti-clerical activist Naor Narkis, a social media star with very strong views against religious coercion and social privileges for the ultra-Orthodox public, but also the source of a lot of suspicion among left-wing figures that he is not committed to other positions that are important to them, especially on questions related to the occupation and the conduct of the war in Gaza.

Looking ahead: Party lists are submitted to the Central Election Committee over a two-day period 40 days before the general election, schedule for October 27. The two large centrist parties, Together and Yashar, neither of which exist in their current form in the outgoing Knesset, are expected to put together lists by an organising committee under the watchful eyes of their respective chairmen.

• There is still some uncertainty about other party formations in the political centre. A Yesodot Yisrael party led by former MK Yoaz Hendel and MK Chili Tropper, who had been a popular minister from Benny Gantz’s party, is polling at just around the electoral threshold of 3.25 per cent, usually just below and sometimes just above.
• Speculation abounds about the anticipated moves of Benny Gantz himself, as well as media personality Dedi Simchi, though they consistently poll below the threshold too. Opposition figures consistently accuse them of trying to siphon centrist votes to the benefit of Netanyahu.
• There is still no final decision about whether some (or even all) the Arab parties will run as a joint list. A joint list is projected to secure the Arab parties more total mandates, but could severely limit the ability of one of its constituent members to support an opposition coalition.

The Knesset formally voted to dissolve itself early Friday morning. 

• Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana concluded the session: “The time is 5:18 am, July 17, 2026. The next meeting will be held some two weeks after the election. This meeting, this session of the 25th Knesset is concluded.”
• Earlier Ohana had expressed hope that “we will return here soon and remember that, despite all our disagreements, we are not enemies, but partners, even if political rivals, and that we are all part of one people and one country,” 
• The dissolution of the Knesset was approved as part of the Party Funding Law. Sixty-two MKs from the coalition voted in favour, while the opposition did not vote against it. 
• The coalition-sponsored legislative procedure continued during the night where they passed a variety of laws including:
  • Splitting the powers of the attorney general. From January 2027, ministers will be permitted to reject guidance from the attorney general which is currently legally binding.
  • Freezing the arrests of ultra-Orthodox  draft dodgers. Though this law was immediately frozen by the High Court of Justice, pending a hearing. 
  • An amendment to the Defence Service Law stating that compulsory service in the IDF will be extended two months and now last 32 months. 
  • The communications law that significantly expanding government oversight of media outlets.
• More of these laws are expected to be challenged in the High Court.

What’s happened: In a voting spree before the Knesset dissolves at the end of the week, the government succeeded in passing two laws that acceded to the demands of the ultra-Orthodox parties.

• On Monday, Basic Law: Torah Study was passed declaring Torah study a “fundamental value” of the Jewish people and the State of Israel. The law passed with 63:52 majority.
• On Tuesday, the Knesset passed a bill into law which will see the ultra-Orthodox deserters exempted for several months from arrest, investigation and enforcement proceedings if they are recognised as yeshiva students. The final vote passed by 58 votes to 45.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu was in the Knesset building but did not attend the vote itself.
• Coalition MKs Sharren Haskel, Yuli Edelstein and Dan Illouz, together with MK Moshe Solomon (Religious Zionist Party), voted against the measure.
• MKs Michal Woldiger and Ofir Sofer of the Religious Zionist Party, as well as Minister Gila Gamliel and MKs Galit Distel Atbaryan and Moshe Passal of the Likud, were present in the Knesset plenum but abstained in the vote.
• Following the approval of the law, Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel announced her resignation. “It is a law that harms servants and the security of the state, it harms those who have served the state for three years and paid a heavy price,” she said.

Context: The quasi-constitutional recognition of Torah studies was a key demand of the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and UTJ, which support the Netanyahu government. The ultra-Orthodox communities say that military service is incompatible with their religious values.

• The issue has been long disputed and is currently one of the most politically divisive issues in Israeli politics, with opponents of the exception calling for more equal sharing of the burden, especially following October 7. Since then almost a thousand soldiers, including reservists, have been killed.
• There are two divergent assessments on the significance of the new law, whose final wording stipulates that “Torah study is a fundamental value in the heritage of the Jewish people and in the State of Israel.”
  • Some argue that it is purely symbolic and declarative, especially after all of the other additional sections were removed, including the section that stipulated that the value of Torah study would be weighed on the scales of justice alongside other values.
  • Some ultra-Orthodox MK’s consider this an incomparably important law, believing it will have weighty consideration when the High Court next debates the issue.
• That test is likely to come soon. Immediately after the bill was passed, Yisrael Beiteinu petitioned the High Court of Justice, demanding the law be overturned and an interim injunction be issued to halt its implementation. Leader of Yisrael Beiteinu MK Avigdor Liberman said, “The law to freeze the arrest of deserters is one of the most shameful and reckless laws the State of Israel has known since its founding. That same deserter, if he were secular or from the religious Zionist sector, would be arrested and sent to prison. If he is ultra-Orthodox, on the other hand, the government grants him immunity from arrest.”
• Ahead of the vote IDF Chief of Staff Zamir made it clear that he opposed the bill. In a letter addressed to Prime Minister Netanyahu, Zamir said the proposal “provides an incentive for non-reporting for military service….The proposal clearly does not align with the needs of the IDF.” Zamir has repeatedly warned of the need for more manpower in order to sustain the IDF’s current posture across multiple fronts.    
• Decriminalising ultra-Orthodox draft deserters is another piece in the puzzle that marred Netanyahu’s government during this Knesset tenure as it saw both Shas and UTJ ministers leaving the cabinet last year in July.
• The other last-minute concession secured by the ultra-Orthodox parties include kashrut supervision bill, which centralises supervision over kosher food certification reversing the previous government opening of the kashrut industry to competition.
• In order to make legislative space for yesterday’s Knesset passage, the government removed the Metropolitan Authorities Law from the agenda. Had it passed, transportation planning powers would have been devolved from the government to local authorities in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, Jerusalem and Haifa.

Looking ahead: Other highly contentious legislative proposals are expected to reach a vote before the Knesset closes its final session at the end of the week, including legislation to split the role of the Attorney General and the regulatory media bill.

• Under the provisions of the new law which, “recognises the importance of Torah study,” a temporary special arrangement will be made to halt the arrest of yeshiva students whose “vocation is Torah study.” The temporary provision will be valid from the date of the law’s passage until November 30, 2026.
• Relating to these new laws, leader of the Together Party Bennett declared, “The next government will be established on the basis of Zionist parties. Shas and UTJ are anti-Zionist parties. They teach their children, ‘We’ll die and won’t enlist.’ It’s disgraceful that we are bankrolling that.” He added that forming a government along with Deri (Shas) would be a “terrible mistake.. since if you do that you won’t be able to correct anything.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is planning to visit the US and meet President Trump, possibly as early as next week.

What’s happened: On Sunday, the Knesset House Committee announced that the date for Israel’s general election will be October 27.

• Coalition whip MK Ofir Katz (Likud) spoke of the government’s achievements, telling the House Committee that, “We passed nine budgets and hundreds of laws that benefit the citizens of the State of Israel.”
• Yisrael Beytenu leader MK Avigdor Liberman said, “On October 27, we will win. We will replace the government of the October 7 massacre and establish a Zionist and statesmanlike government, and we will rebuild the country.”
• Today the Knesset will begin its final session and will hold continuous votes on a range of proposed legislation that is waiting for final approval day and night, until Friday.
• Coalition MKs have been instructed not to leave Jerusalem in order to ensure a majority for all votes.
• Issues on the legislative agenda include:
  • Minister Levin’s bill to split the attorney general’s powers. The bill would divide the role into two separate jobs: an attorney general, responsible for legal advice to the government, representing the state in noncriminal matters and leading the state legal advisory system; and a general prosecutor, exclusively responsible for criminal law, including indictments and managing the public prosecution.
  • Basic Law: Torah Study. The bill would enshrine, “Torah study is a fundamental value of Jewish heritage and the State of Israel.” This is a softened version, removing a clause that would have granted draft dodgers benefits equivalent to those of combat soldiers, but could still be used to justify not serving in the military.  
  • Minister Karhi’s media bill. The bill would allow the establishment of new news channels with almost no regulation, abolish the structural separation between channel owners and news companies and create a government app through which all news channels could be accessed for free. It would also give the government, through appointments to the new regulator, significantly more influence over media oversight and enforcement.
  • Shas’s kashrut supervision bill. A reversal of a law passed by the previous government aimed at opening the kashrut industry to competition. This bill would centralise supervision over kosher food certification.

Context: October 27 will signify the first time since 1988 that elections have been held after a full four-year term.

• This marks a significant achievement for the coalition, which managed to politically survive the October 7 massacre, the worst disaster in Israeli history. It has endured not only the profound political and security crisis that followed, but also the mass street protests triggered by the government’s attempted judicial overhaul.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is focused on two main political issues:
  • He is working to pass legislation designed to preserve his bloc and his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox.
  • He is also trying to cancel the Likud internal elections and secure ten personal slots on the party’s slate.
• For over a decade the ultra-orthodox have been perceived as Netanyahu’s ‘natural partners’ however gaps have emerged.
• Over the weekend  Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, the spiritual leader of Shas, (and son of the party’s founder) suggested Eisenkot could be a better option, he was quoted saying, “There is no chance Bibi will repent. Eisenkot might.”
• Another ultra-Orthodox partner, head of the Degel Hatorah faction MK Moshe Gafni recently declared that the party no longer feel bound to Netanyahu.
• Netanyahu calculations suggest that he believes the price he will pay for advancing the ultra-Orthodox legislation is lower than the cost of entering the election without a united bloc, which could at least prevent the opposing camp from forming a government.
• However, it now appears that the controversial Basic Law: Torah Study has been stripped of the most meaningful aspects (that would have placed bible study as an equivalent value to military service) and now appears purely declarative.
• One of the major lessons from the last election is to ensure (for each bloc) that no votes are wasted. Last time Netanyahu successfully convinced Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power and Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party to merge and run together. Due to their personal animosity this appears unlikely this time around.  Instead, Likud officials are considering reserving a spot for Smotrich on the Likud list.
• Netanyahu faces a political challenge, he is conscious of the discrepancy between the popularity of some of the Likud MKs among the Likud membership versus their standing with potential Likud voters. He is aware that despite his residual popularity among right wing voters, some of his more outspoken backbenchers are controversial and unpopular. He is therefore hoping to convince the internal Likud mechanism to give him maximum control and insert his own preferred candidates into prominent positions on the party slate.
• Within the current Likud faction, former Speaker of the Knesset MK Yuli Edelstein announced that he will not run with Likud in the upcoming elections. Similarly Likud MK Dan Illouz, a leading voice within Likud against legislation favouring the ultra-Orthodox announced that he is also leaving the party.
• According to the latest polling by Kan News, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has overtaken Likud for the first time and is now slated to win 24 seats were elections to be held today, one more than Netanyahu’s Likud.
• However, the seat that Eisenkot’s party has added since the last poll  did not come at the expense of  Likud, but at the expense of Naftali Bennett’s Together Party, which lost one seat and is now projected to win 15 seats. The Netanyahu bloc lost one seat and is now projected to win 52 seats, whereas the current opposition parties (including Arab parties) are projected to win 68 seats.
• Regarding suitability to serve as prime minister, 41% of respondents said they view Gadi Eisenkot as the most suitable candidate, compared with 37% for Netanyahu.

Looking ahead: The Knesset will be dissolved this coming Friday, July 17, entering a lengthy recess until after the elections.

• Netanyahu’s government will then enter a transitional caretaker phase, during which laws can only pass with the mutual consent of the Knesset factions.
• After several delays the Likud party’s constitution committee will soon meet to decide the mechanism for choosing the Likud’s party list and how many reserved spots will be granted to the prime minister. One proposal submitted to the constitution committee would be to select candidates through a hybrid of three methods; Netanyahu’s personally-selected candidates, a nominating committee and internal elections. Netanyahu is demanding ten personal slots.
• Netanyahu wants quiet until all (or some) the contentious bills are passed by the Knesset this week. Only once the Knesset is in recess will they set the criteria for the list, so there will be no chance for a rebellion within the Likud faction.
• The election will be overseen by the Central Elections Committee, which is made up of representatives of the factions represented in the Knesset according to their relative size. The committee is headed by Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg. It has not yet been decided whether party lists must be submitted 45 or 50 days before the election.