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Israeli politics & society

Key background
  • The State of Israel was founded in 1948 with its foundational document being its Declaration of Independence. This declaration confirmed Israel’s nature as a Jewish and democratic state where all citizens were viewed as equals before the law, and freedom of conscience, worship, education, and culture were to be guaranteed.
  • Israel’s constitution is uncodified, but practically oriented towards a number of “Basic Laws” concerning state institutions and rights. They can only be overturned by a supermajority vote in the Knesset.
  • Similarly to the UK, Israeli government has three branches: the legislature (Knesset), judiciary, and executive (cabinet lead by the Prime Minister). The President is elected by members of the Knesset for a single seven-year term and acts as its head of state, but this role is almost entirely ceremonial.
  • Israel uses pure proportional representation to elect its MKs. As this functionally precludes any one party securing an outright majority, Israel is governed by coalitions formed by the leader of the party that generally wins the most seats.
  • The current President is Isaac Herzog, and the Prime Minister is Benjamin Netanyahu of the Likud. Other coalition partners include United Torah Judaism, Shas, the Religious Zionist Party, Otzma Yehudit, New Hope, and Noam.
Israel Air Force fighter jet F-15, at the Tel Nor airforce base. January 01, 2024. Photo by Moshe Shai/FLASH90 *** Local Caption *** îèåñ ÷øá F 15 çéì àåéø

Updated November 7, 2024

New military deal – F15s

Israel’s Ministry of Defence yesterday signed “a landmark transaction to acquire the next generation of F-15 fighter jets, purchasing 25 advanced aircraft from Boeing.”

  • According to the MOD, “The $5.2 billion (£4bn) agreement, part of a broader package of US aid approved by the US Administration and Congress earlier this year, includes an option for 25 additional aircraft.” 
  • “The new F-15IA aircraft will be equipped with cutting-edge weapon systems, including the integration of state of the art Israeli technologies. The upgraded aircraft will feature enhanced range capabilities, increased payload capacity, and improved performance across various operational scenarios. These advantages will enable the Israeli Air Force to maintain its strategic superiority in addressing current and future challenges in the Middle East.” 
  • However, “delivery of the F-15 aircraft will begin in 2031, with 4-6 aircraft to be supplied annually.”

November 7, 2024

Israeli leaders congratulate Trump

A large billboard posted in Tel Aviv, in support of Republican presidential nominee and former US president Donald Trump just days ahead of the US general elections, November 3, 2024. Photo by Miriam Alster/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** שלט תל אביב תמיכה דונלד טראמפ בחירות ארצות הברית

Congratulations: Even prior to the formal announcement of the President-elect’s victory, Prime Minister Netanyahu sent a congratulatory message, saying that Trump’s “historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

  • Last night, Trump and Netanyahu spoke over the phone. The two leaders agreed to work together for Israel’s security and discussed the Iranian threat.
  • Leader of the Opposition Lapid congratulated Trump on X writing, “You have shown yourself time and again to be a true friend of Israel. I know that with your leadership we will continue to strengthen and deepen the unique bond that exists between our two countries and expand the circle of peace in the Middle East. These are challenging times for Israel but with the ironclad support of the United States and strong leadership we can overcome them all. For the people of Israel there is no task more urgent than bringing our hostages home from Gaza.”
  • President Herzog said, “You are a true and dear friend of Israel, and a champion of peace and cooperation in our region. I look forward to working with you to strengthen the ironclad bond between our peoples, to build a future of peace and security for the Middle East, and to uphold our shared values.”
  • National Unity Party leader MK Benny Gantz, noted Trump’s past achievements and added, “Against the backdrop of emboldened Iranian aggression in this region, its race to nuclear capabilities, and the paramount efforts to return the hostages home, President Trump’s leadership will not only ensure the US continues to be a special friend and ally to the State of Israel but a vital beacon of moral clarity to the Middle East and the world.”
  • Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas also congratulated Trump on his victory, expressing confidence he will support Palestinian’s aspirations for statehood.

Trump’s recent comments: President Elect Trump has consistently claimed to be a great friend of Israel. 

  • On September 5th he posted on his social media Truth 4.83 million followers that (in caps) “NO PRESIDENT HAS DEFENDED ISRAEL AND JEWISH AMERICANS MORE THAN DONALD J. TRUMP.” 
  • In a short clip summarising his achievements, Trump mentioned:
    • Declaring Jerusalem as the true capital of Israel; 
    • The US leaving the JCPOA nuclear accords with Iran;
    • Imposing sanctions on Iran aimed at curbing their nuclear ambitions; 
    • Brokering and signing of the Abraham Accords.
  • At the same time, foreign policy including the Middle East is not a leading issue in American politics and the official 2024 Republican Party Platform says little about the region aside from “standing with Israel” and “restoring peace in the Middle East.”
  • Speaking at the Republican Jewish Coalition on September 5th, Trump asserted that the Biden-Harris administration “sought to cast blame for these [Palestinian] deaths on Israel,” and that “the October 7th attack on Israel would never have happened if he was President”. That sentiment was repeated during his September 10th presidential debate against Harris.
  • In July 2024, Trump reportedly told Netanyahu “do what you have to do” and “finish up the war” but warned Netanyahu that Israel’s public relations have taken a hit due to the graphic videos of death and destruction that have come out of Gaza.

Israeli media initial assessments: Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Ron Ben Yishai recommends caution about the Trump administration. He highlights the fact that Trump’s son in law Jared Kushner will not be joining Trump in the White House, adding that that should concern Israel.

  • Israeli officials say that Netanyahu has been asked to leave Trump with a “clean” slate before he enters the Oval Office. To accomplish that, Netanyahu is going to have to learn how to make decisions at “Trump” speed, instead of continuing to juggle balls in the air. 
  • On Channel 12 News, Ofer Hadad argues that while Biden or the Democratic Party didn’t like to break the rules, Trump doesn’t have any rules. For example, if Trump decides to stop the war or take any other step as part of his foreign policy, he will run over anyone who stands in his way, including Israel. 
  • In an interview to Maariv today, Dr. Shay Har-Zvi from Reichman University, says that despite Trump’s policy of ‘America First’, the US would not be able to disengage from the Middle East and Israel could be under pressure to bring the war to an end. 
  • He explains that Trump wishes that the war in the Middle East would come to an end before he enters the White House on January 20th. In his victory speech Trump declared that he doesn’t wish to start wars. His main motivation is to focus on the significant challenge of the US in the international arena, as far as he concerned – the Chinese threat on the US dominancy and economy.
  • Har- Zvi emphasises the three main targets on Trump’s likely Middle East agenda: ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon which will secure the return of the hostages, advancing normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, and dealing with Iran’s nuclear threat. To enhance the normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu will have to show that he is willing to give the Palestinian diplomatic horizon.
  • Relating to Iran, Iranian expert Beni Sabti told Maariv that Trump will not continue working on Iran nuclear deal as it is now. The new administration might present new demands in three areas: the level of uranium enrichment, inspection on nuclear facilities and limitations on Iran’s nuclear programme. 
  • Meanwhile Iranian government spokesperson, Fatemeh Mohajerani, said that the result would have little impact on Iran as “more than five decades of sanctions have toughened Iran.”
  • Maariv reports that Saudi Arabia has proposed opening an Israeli liaison office in Riyadh. The proposal was presented on the heels of the Euro-Muslim conference that was recently held to discuss the issue with the formal purpose of the office to coordinate the establishment of a Palestinian state.

November 6, 2024

Netanyahu fires Defence Minister Gallant

Israelis block the Ayalon Highway in Tel Aviv as they protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to fire Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, November 5, 2024. Photo by Itai Ron/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** מלחמה שר הביטחון יואב גלנט פיטורים תל אביב הפגנה איילון חסימה הפגנה

Statement by Prime Minister Netanyahu: In a surprise announcement on Tuesday night, Netanyahu fired Defence Minister Gallant. Netanyahu spoke of the necessity of “complete trust” being required between the prime minister and the defence minister.

  • Adding, “Unfortunately, even though such trust was present during the first months of the military campaign, and we had a very productive cooperation, during the past several months this trust between myself and the Defence Minister has begun to crack.”
  • “Defence Minister Gallant and I had substantial disagreements on the management of the military campaign, disagreements which were accompanied by public statements and actions that contravened the decisions of the Government and the Security Cabinet.” 
  • “I have made multiple attempts to resolve these disagreements, but they became increasingly wider. They were also brought to the knowledge of the public in an inappropriate manner, and what is even worse, they have reached the knowledge of the enemy; our enemies have taken great delight in these disagreements and have derived much benefit from them.”
  • “The increasingly wide crisis of confidence between myself and the Defence Minister had become public knowledge, and that crisis is hindering the continued proper administration of the military campaign.”
  • Gallant will be replaced by Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz who, in turn, would be replaced by Gideon Saar.

Gallant statement: Gallant struck a dignified tone. He outlined the military achievements he oversaw across multiple fronts adding, “The security of the State of Israel has been, and always will be my life’s mission, and I am committed to this.”

  • He continued, “my removal from office is the result of disagreements on three issues:
    • “The first, my steadfast position that every individual at the age of recruitment, must be recruited for service in the IDF and must defend the State of Israel. This is not just another minor social issue, this is a central issue to our existence, to the security of the State of Israel and the Jewish nation. During this war we have lost hundreds of soldiers and thousands have been wounded…. In this context there is no choice – everyone must serve in the IDF, and participate in the mission of defending the State of Israel.”
    • “The second issue – It is our moral obligation and responsibility to ensure the return of our boys and girls held hostage, as soon as possible and to bring them back alive, to their families and homes.” 
    • The third issue – We must learn lessons and draw conclusions following a thorough investigation of events….there is only one way: the establishment of a state commission of inquiry.” 
  • He added, “there are still significant challenges ahead of us, in facing Iran and its proxies in the region. Israel’s defence establishment is strong, we are striking our enemies sand defeating them. However, the war is not over, and unfortunately we will be required to face our enemies for many years ahead.”

Other responses: Leader of the opposition Lapid called the decision “an act of madness.” 

  • Adding, “Netanyahu is selling Israel’s security and the IDF’s fighters for contemptible political survival. The fully right-wing government prioritises draft-dodgers over those who serve.” 
  • Leader of the Democrats Yair Golan also called on the public to “head into the streets.”
  • Tens of thousands of people demonstrated last night in several locations throughout Israel to protest the decision. In Tel Aviv, the Ayalon Highway was blocked for a few hours and large bonfires were lit. Roughly 40 demonstrators were arrested. In Jerusalem, a demonstration was held near the prime minister’s residence and demonstrators marched in the direction of the Knesset. 
  • President Herzog wrote on X, “The last thing the State of Israel needs now is upheaval and a rift in the middle of a war. The State of Israel’s security must be above every consideration. One hundred and one hostages are in enemy captivity this evening as well. Thousands of daughters and sons of bereaved families are mourning their world that was destroyed. Many reservists are carrying the burden of defending the people and the homeland and are crying out along with their families.”
  • Former prime minister Bennett said,  “We have an insane and sick leadership that has lost any connection to what is important to the State of Israel and is acting against Israel and against the soldiers. Change is on the way. It will come. We will organise Israel from within.”
  • Whist National Security Minister Ben Gvir welcomed the move, writing: “I congratulate the prime minister for his decision to fire Gallant. With Gallant, who is still deeply beholden to the preconception, we can’t reach total victory—and the prime minister did well to remove him from office.”

Context: The decision is widely being interpreted as a crude political manoeuvre by Netanyahu to ensure the survival of his coalition. 

  • He is facing increasing pressure from his ultra-Orthodox partners to pass the daycare subsidies bill and pander to their demands to enshrine their (lack of) service in the IDF in a new law. 
  • Whist legally it is the prime minister’s prerogative to sack any minister, removing an accomplished heavyweight security expert whilst still fighting a multi-front war has been widely greeted with shock and anger.
  • Underlining this, 11 ballistic missiles were fired this morning from Lebanon, with sirens heard across Tel Aviv and central Israel. No injuries have been reported. Whist fighting continues in Lebanon and Gaza.
  • As well as his security acumen, Gallant through his close relationship with US Defence Secretary Austin, led the Israeli liaison with the US, including at a time now when Israel is facing a potential imminent attack from Iran.
  • The announcement also coincides (and distracts attention) from the latest scandal enveloping the prime minister’s office over leaked intelligence documents. 
  • It also coincided with the US election. Prime Minister Netanyahu was quick to congratulate President Elect Trump, even before the result has been confirmed.
  • By promoting Katz and Saar, Netanyahu has found a way out of political trap. Only yesterday the coalition found it did not have a majority to pass the daycare bill.  Saar was among those who spoke out against it. However, even he cannot so brazenly support a bill today that he opposed yesterday so instead the issue has now been removed from the legislative agenda for today. It is anticipated that this will now be included in overall compensation package to the ultra-Orthodox on a new draft bill, that will be prepared by the new defence minister. 
  • There has been long standing acrimony between Netanyahu and Gallant. Netanyahu first attempted to remove Gallant in Spring 2023 after Gallant warned of dire security ramifications over the proposed judicial reform. That led to mass protest on the streets and Netanyahu’s subsequent reversal.     
  • The new Defence Minister Israel Katz is one of Israel’s longest serving Likud politicians, having first been elected in 1992. He has served as  Minister of Foreign Affairs (twice), Minister of Finance and Minister of Intelligence (for five years), and a long-standing member of the Security Cabinet. He is considered a Netanyahu loyalist that will be less strident and independent than Gallant. 
  • The decision of Gideon Saar to serve as foreign minister, marks a sharp U-turn since he left the Likud in disillusioned after unsuccessfully challenging Netanyahu’s leadership in 2019. He has also served a variety of portfolios in the past including minister of education, interior and justice.        

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Katz faces a steep learning curve to familiarise himself with numerous complex security challenges. 

  • It has been speculated that removing Gallant is the first step for Netanyahu to dismiss the heads of the security establishment, placing them culpable for the October 7th attack and distancing the political echelon from the failure. Netanyahu has denied this claim.       
  • The move adds further despair to the 101 hostage families now in captivity 397 days, who had held out hope for Minister Gallant leading efforts to conclude a deal

November 6, 2024

Netanyahu congratulates Trump on election

PM Netanyahu posted on X: “Dear Donald and Melania Trump, Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback! Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory! In true friendship, yours, Benjamin and Sara Netanyahu”

November 5, 2024

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant

Yisrael Katz has been appointed as Israel’s new Defence Minister

Gideon Saar has been offered the post of Foreign Minister

November 5, 2024

Israeli government approves budget but faces legislative challenges

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Minister and MK's attend a plenary session of the opening day of the winter session at the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on october 28, 2024. Photo by Yonatan Sindel/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** ראש הממשלה בנימין נתניהו כנסת מליאה ישיבה ישיבת פתיחת מושב חורף

The budget: Government ministers approved the budget for next year with the aim of sustaining the war effort, supporting reservists and their families and stimulating growth.

  • The budget will stand at NIS 607.4 billion, (approximately £125bn) alongside additional adjustments measures which total approximately NIS 37 billion (£7.6bn). 
  • It includes a NIS 9 billion package (£1.85bn) to support the unprecedented number of 300,000 reservists.
  • In order to cover some of the costs and rein in a budget deficit of about 4.3 per cent, ministers approved a roughly NIS 40 billion package (£8.22bn) of tax hikes and spending cuts. This will include raising VAT from the current 17 per cent to 18 per cent. 
  • The government has not yet published the full details of the hike of national insurance contributions, but it is expected to add between NIS 1,000 to NIS 2,000 (£205 – £410) a year in contributions to an average household.
  • However, benefits paid to the elderly, people with disabilities, Holocaust survivors and families of fallen soldiers will not be frozen as was proposed, except for child allowances.
  • Finance Minister Smotrich explained that the deficit is a result of the high cost of the country which has now been at war for over a year.
  • The budget makes cuts across several ministries including: health, agriculture, education, welfare and social affairs. Additionally, five government offices will be closed, although an announcement on which ones has not yet been made. 
  • At Friday’s cabinet vote the budget passed 23 votes to 7 with four ministers from the prime minister’s Likud party, as well as the three from Jewish Power, voting against.      
  • These included Likud Minster for Culture and Sports Miki Zohar and Environmental Protection Minister Idit Silman who opposed proposed cuts to their ministries. Jewish Power ministers Itamar Ben Gvir, Amichai Eliyahu, and Yitzhak Wasserlauf, also voted against the budget due to what they describe as harm to the security services.
  • Two more ministers, Yitzhak Goldknopf, (leader of United Torah Judaism – UTJ) and Gideon Saar (New Hope) did not participate in the vote.
  • Opposition leader Lapid criticised the government, saying that the budget will raise the expenses of every family in Israel while simultaneously handing out NIS 10 billion to unnecessary government offices.

Controversy over the daycare subsidies bill: The bill was recently submitted by the UTJ party in order to ease the criteria for daycare subsidies for ultra-Orthodox children.  

  • The intention of the bill is to circumvent a decision earlier in the year by the attorney-general to block subsidies for children of yeshiva students where the father has refused to serve in the military. Instead it proposes criterion based exclusively on the mother’s employment, irrespective of whether the father works for a living.
  • The bill was proposed following a decision by ultra-Orthodox lawmakers to delay their demand for a new conscription law until after a vote on the budget. That decision followed widespread anger and resentment over the ultra-Orthodox demand to exempt their members from military service.
  • Despite Netanyahu’s openness to passing that day subsidies bill, and with a Knesset vote on it for a preliminary reading scheduled for Wednesday, several members of the coalition have announced their decision not to support it. 
  • Opposition has been voiced by Likud MKs Defense Minister Gallant, Yuli Edelstein and Dan Illouz; Religious Zionism party MKs Ophir Sofer, Ohad Tal and Moshe Solomon; and Gideon Saar’s faction. In light of this, the bill is no longer expected to enjoy a majority with the balance in the Knesset now 57 for and 57 against.
  • Yesterday Saar, who recently joined Netanyahu’s coalition, explained the reasoning for his opposition. “The reservists have served, and are serving, an incomprehensible number of days on reserve duty over the past year. There have been deaths; soldiers have been wounded—physically and mentally. Their families are paying a high price, in terms of family dynamics and finances. At this moment, the government and the IDF must strive to carry out significant processes to increase participation in the responsibility and the privilege of serving from all sectors of the public. That is imperative.”
  • Sources inside UTJ said they “expect the prime minister to enforce discipline in the coalition ranks, with an emphasis on the Likud. If the daycare subsidy bill doesn’t pass on Wednesday, we will vote in accordance with our own decisions on every piece of legislation emerging from the ranks of the Likud.” 
  • UTJ also hinted it may reconsider voting with the government on several bills. MK Yaakov Asher said, “If the Likud splits on the daycare subsidy bill and some members vote with the opposition in order to undermine ultra-Orthodox women’s employment, we also have a variety of views about the ratings bill [legislation that would give the government the authority to oversee television ratings], the public broadcasting corporation bill [legislation to increase government control over the Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation budget] and the Israel Bar Association [a reference to a key part of Justice Minister Yariv Levin’s judicial reform proposal]. The opposition also has good proposals that we can support. We have nothing to lose.” 

Context: The Israeli economy registered a sharp slowdown due to the war. Factors include the high living costs, the mobilisation of army reservists, as well as the decline in productivity and reduction in exports. 

  • According to the finance ministry, GDP growth for 2024 is estimated at 0.4 per cent, although it has revised expectations for 2025 and predicts growth of 4.3 per cent based on the assumption that the war’s intensity would continue for now, but fighting will end after the first quarter of 2025.
  • There remains tension between the defence and finance ministries. The defence budget currently represents 6.5 per cent of Israel’s GDP. According to Finance Minister Smotrich they still need to take into consideration the impact of the defence budget on other sectors, as economic growth and recovery will strengthen the security situation in Israel. 
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that, if necessary, the government will submit a ‘supplemental budget’ to cover the additional defence costs
  • As of now, the IDF has reportedly completed drafting the staff for the first ultra-Orthodox brigade, as well as establishing infrastructure for the induction of the brigade’s first unit next month.
  • Defence Minister Gallant has given his approval for an additional 7,000 draft orders to be sent to members of the ultra- Orthodox community. In the summer, during the first phase, 3,000 orders were sent but only around 300 showed up at induction centres. 
  • The tension over ultra-Orthodox men not serving in the IDF has for many years caused tension in Israeli society. Yet over the past year – in which approximately 300,000 reservists have been called up since October 7 2023, 18 percent of whom were men over 40 who should have been exempted – this tension has increased. 
  • There is significant opposition within religious Zionist circles (within which the Religious Zionism and Likud parties draw support from) to the continued exemption of the ultra-Orthodox).
  • At the same time, the ultra-Orthodox parties have been loyal and consistent members of Netanyahu’s coalition.

Looking ahead: The government will need to recalibrate its position on the subsidies bill and how this may affect the vote on the budget.

  • If it passes its first reading in the Knesset, the budget will subsequently be sent to the Knesset Finance Committee, which will prepare the final version for the second and third votes

November 4, 2024

Fighting continues amid political security scandal

Leader of the National Unity Party MK Benny Gantz and leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid holding a press conference in Tel Aviv, November 3, 2024. Photo by Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** יאיר לפיד בני גנץ מסיבת עיתונאים מסמכים חקירה מדברים תל אביב
Northern front: Dozens of rockets and missiles continue to target northern Israel, as the IDF continues its miliary campaign in Lebanon. On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the Lebanon border noting, “from here one can see and hear the changed reality.”  Netanyahu said, “We are striking all areas in Lebanon. I would like to make it clear: with or without an agreement, the key to restoring the calm and security in the north, the key to returning our residents in the north safely to their homes, is – first of all – to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani. Second is to strike at any attempt to rearm itself. Third is to respond vigorously to any action against us. Simply put, enforcement, enforcement, enforcement – and cutting off Hezbollah’s pipeline from Iran through . To all of this we are committed.” Over the weekend, IDF commandos carried out an unusual operation in the northern Lebanese coastal town of Batroun. Forces were able to enter from the sea and apprehend and extract a senior Hezbollah commander and transfer him back to Israel for questioning.  In another rare announcement, the IDF confirmed that they also carried out an operation in southern . According to the IDF the target was, “Ali Soleiman al-Assi, a Syrian citizen…. His activities included gathering intelligence on IDF troops in the border area for future terror activity of the network. Ali Soleiman al-Assi has been under IDF surveillance, was detained and transferred for interrogation in Israel.” The IDF also announced the elimination of two Hezbollah commanders in the area of Tyre. One was the commander of Hezbollah’s forces in the coastal sector, the second, Hezbollah’s artillery commander in the same sector. Between them they were responsible for launching more than 400 rocket and mortar projectiles just in the last month. This corresponds to roughly 10 per cent of total launches in this period.Elsewhere, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck the commander of Hezbollah’s Nasser Unit missiles and rockets array, as well as the commander of the drones array in the unit in Jouaiyya in southern Lebanon. They were responsible for multiple rocket attacks, including the attack in Majdal Shams, which killed 12 children and the rocket attack on Metula last Thursday, which resulted in the deaths of 5 civilians.The IAF also targeted and killed the Hezbollah commander of the Khiam area, along with a Radwan Forces commander. They were responsible for many anti-tank missile and rocket attacks. As part of the continued ground operation, the IDF announced, “troops located numerous weapons stored in both the kitchen and children’s room, including RPGs, rocket launchers, rockets, grenades, and AK-47 rifles. In the same civilian building, which was used as a weapons storage facility, a large cache of military tactical equipment, combat gear, and intelligence documents was found, used by Hezbollah operatives who had barricaded themselves in the building.”

The scandal: An investigation has been launched following suspicion that classified and sensitive intelligence information was taken from the IDF. After a court lifted a gag order, it is now permitted to report that Eli Feldstein, a spokesperson in the Prime Minister’s Office, is alleged to have taken intelligence material and leaked it to foreign media sources. The chief concern is that the information was liable to severely damage state security, endangered information sources and potentially undermined efforts to release the hostages. There is a further suspicion and allegations that the material was manipulated before being leaked.It is also being alleged that Feldstein failed his security clearance, but was still employed by the Director-General of the Prime Minister’s Office. Three other suspects from within the defence establishment were arrested. The remand of three of them was extended, and one was released. Although the prime minister has sought to distance himself from the case he faces increasing political pressure.For the first time in a year and half, Leader of the Opposition Lapid and his centrist rival MK Gantz held a joint press conference on Sunday night. Lapid said, “Netanyahu said in the past that he did not know that there was a problem on Mt. Meron, that he did not know about the submarines, that he did not know about the warnings before October 7, and now he says that he did not know what his bureau was doing at a time that Israel is at a war for its existence. Netanyahu’s line of defence is that he has no influence or control over the system that he heads. If that is true, he is unfit to lead the State of Israel in the most difficult war in its history.”Gantz said, “When we quit the government, I said that political considerations had infiltrated the holy of holies of Israel’s security. We warned of this in real time. We’ve reached the stage of the proof. If sensitive security information was stolen and became a tool in a campaign of political survival, this is not just a criminal offence, this is a national crime.”       

Hopes for a ceasefire: There is cautious optimism that a ceasefire agreement in the north can be reached in the next couple of weeks.The broad parameters reinforcing previous agreements are understood to include the removal of Hezbollah south of Litani River and efforts preventing Hezbollah from re-arming. Israel would then gradually redeploy out of the Lebanon.There is added impetus as both presidential candidates (and President Biden) all support an end to the fighting.What remains is for Israel is to reach an understanding with international partners for legitimacy to act if / when Hezbollah violates the agreement by returning south or seeking to re-arm.

Iranian threat: Israel remains on high alert for an Iranian attack after Ayatollah Khamenei threatened Israel with “a crushing response.” There appears to be a consensus within the Iranian leadership, even among the ‘moderates’ over the need to respond, perhaps even stronger than the October 1st attack.It is anticipated that they will wait until after the US election, but before inauguration. The Iranians are concerned that an imminent response would help Trump in the election.             Khamenei also hinted that their response may not necessarily be solely military, but could also include making advances towards nuclear proliferation

October 30, 2024

Cabinet to vote on budget today

What’s happening: Finance Minister Smotrich yesterday sent an outline of the 2025 budget ahead of a government meeting today to approve the budget.

  • The cabinet is expected to vote on the state budget today, however substantial disagreements remain, particularly over the size of next year’s defence budget.
  • The Ministry of Defence says it needs NIS 160 billion (£33.1bn), whereas the Finance Ministry says the defence needs can be met with NIS 110 billion (£22.76bn).
  • Part of this large discrepancy is based on different assessments over when the fighting will end in the north and south as well as the Iranian threat.  
  • In general, the budget focuses on economic recovery from the war. According to the Finance Ministry, the direct cost of funding the war in Gaza from October 2023 through August 2024 was 100 billion shekels (approximately £20.7 billion). 
  • The Bank of Israel estimates the total could rise to NIS 250 billion (£51.72bn) by the end of 2025, but that was before Israel’s incursion into Lebanon, which will add to this amount.
  • As a result, several ministries are facing substantial cuts including NIS 100 million (£20.70m) off the welfare ministry and NIS 133 million (£27.50m) off the education ministry.    
  • The budget also includes cuts to the Transport and Road Safety Ministry’s development budget and Health Ministry budgets.
  • Smotrich is reportedly trying to cut NIS 40 billion (£8.27 billion). There could also be changes in the income tax brackets and tax credit points, and some national insurance payments will be frozen.
  • Responding to concerns that some of the cuts will harm Israel’s most vulnerable, Smotrich said that the ministry will identify those who are significantly harmed by the stipend freezes.
  • Ultra-Orthodox parties have, until recently, insisted on a bill to exempt full-time Yeshiva (religious seminary) students from military service before supporting the budget.
  • However, facing widespread anger and resentment both from the secular public and parts of the national-religious community (which has lost a disproportionate number of soldiers over the course of the war) ultra-Orthodox leaders in the Knesset agreed to delay their demand for a new conscription law until after this week’s budget vote. 
  • Instead, by way of compensation, the United Torah Judaism party submitted a bill to ease the criteria for daycare subsidies for ultra-Orthodox children.  The bill seeks to circumvent a decision earlier in the year by the attorney-general to block subsidies for children of yeshiva students where the father has refused to serve in the military. 
  • Addressing the budgetary issue that affects the ultra-Orthodox community, Smotrich acknowledged that there are social implications but refrained from committing to supporting financial sanctions to discourage this situation from continuing. 

Context: The discussions over the budget and the ultra-Orthodox demand for a formal exemption from army service comes as the IDF predicts it needs greater manpower. Over the next two years, IDF reservists will continue to serve for longer periods of time. 

  • Some 300,000 reservists have been called up since the Hamas attack of October 7th 2023, 18 percent of whom were men over 40 who should have been exempted. 
  • The IDF plans to increase the number of soldiers who will protect the north and the south from Hamas or Hezbollah in a scenario where they try to attack these areas in the future and to provide a better sense of security for the civilian residents.
  • The IDF is also preparing for a scenario that, even if a ceasefire is agreed, the IDF will seek to maintain their freedom to respond to anticipated Hezbollah violations of any agreement. 
  • A group of reservists recently sent a letter to IDF Chief of  Staff Halevi asking to share the burden with members of the ultra-Orthodox community.
  • In a hospital visit to an ultra-orthodox wounded soldier, Halevi talked about the important of ultra-Orthodox Jews serving, saying, “This is what’s right socially, and I think that when we manage to grow from this… from realising the need for a larger IDF, it could also bring a very positive social change.”
  • Halevi added that, “more soldiers are needed for the conscripted army and IDF reserves.”

Looking ahead: Once the cabinet approves the budget, it is then voted on in the Knesset.

  • Netanyahu and Smotrich have stated their intention to pass the budget by the end of 2024. With the coalition now with 68 seats, as long as the ultra-Orthodox parties are on board there is no reason why the budget should encounter difficulties. The final deadline to pass the budget is March 31st, which would result in the government’s collapse and early elections.

IDF Recruitment – Background

  • In 1948, David Ben Gurion struck a deal with the ultra-Orthodox community to exempt from service a capped number whose full-time occupation was Torah study. At the time, the principle that ‘Torah study is a vocation’ was never enshrined in law, but rather in a Defence Ministry regulation. Given the much smaller ultra-Orthodox population, the exemption applied only to 400 Yeshiva students. 
  • With the election of Menachem Begin as Prime Minister in 1977, the cap was removed and all Yeshiva students were able to avail themselves of the exemption.
  • In the late 1990s, the Supreme Court began a series of interventions on the issue. In a 1998 ruling Rubinstein v. The Minister of Defence, the court, under the leadership of Aharon Barak, ruled that exemption was discriminatory and violated the principle of equality. It subsequently ordered that suitable legislation be explored to remedy the status quo. In 2012, the Court similarly ruled unconstitutional the Tal Law, the first attempt at a legislative solution which, although designed to encourage greater ultra-Orthodox participation, left the process largely voluntary, resulting in ongoing low rates of service. 
  • The 2013 Netanyahu government – which did not comprise ultra-Orthodox parties – passed legislation requiring an annually increasing percentage of ultra-Orthodox men to be drafted. This was encouraged by coalition partners Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Between 2012-14, partly as a result of reduced budgets, the amount of ultra-Orthodox students studying in Yeshiva declined by 8 per cent. 
  • The 2015 ultra-Orthodox parties return to power led to new legislation undercutting the previous policy, which in turn was once again struck down by the court. An increase in budgets for yeshiva students led to 10 per cent increase in the number of students. In 2017, the court ruled the new legislation unconstitutional and demanded the government make changes that respect the principle of equality.
  • During the Bennett-Lapid government, Defence Minister Gantz succeeded in passing, on a first reading, a bill lowering the age of exemption to 21. The bill, whose progress collapsed along with the government, also provided for the eventual drafting of the majority of the ultra-Orthodox into the IDF, with the quota for those obliged to serve rising each year. 
  • In 2022, when the coalition was formed, Netanyahu agreed to pass a new law on conscription that would have met ultra-Orthodox demands, but it has been repeatedly delayed, first in a battle over the justice system and later over the war.
  • In June 2024, the High Court ruled the state must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students, and the military said it would recruit about 3,000 ultra-Orthodox a year

August 1, 2024

Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders

What’s happened: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

  • In his public statement, Iran’s supreme leader, said: “we see avenging his blood our duty,” because it happened on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
  • In a memorial ceremony held in Tehran, the Ayatollah personally led the prayers, while also speaking at the ceremony, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the Israeli regime committed a ‘strategic mistake’.
  • In Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation on Wednesday evening and described the current conflict as an “existential war against a stranglehold of terrorist armies and missiles that Iran would like to tighten around our neck.”
  • Speaking of Hezbollah’s number two Shukr, Netanyahu said that he “was directly responsible for the massacre of our dear boys and girls in Majdal Shams. He was responsible for the murder of many other Israeli citizens. He was responsible for the unceasing assault against our citizens in the northern communities over nine months of war.”
  • “He was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world. The US put a $5 million bounty on his head, and for good reason. He was involved in the murder of 241 American soldiers and 58 French soldiers in Beirut in 1983. He was the main liaison between Iran and Hezbollah and he was responsible for the organisation’s missiles,” Netanyahu added.
  • Defence Minister Gallant spoke to his counterpart US Secretary of State Austin who reassured him by saying, “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again.”
  • The US has also  now deployed at least 12 warships to the region, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, amphibious assault teams and over 4,000 Marines and sailors.
  • In a further unconfirmed attack, sources are claiming that Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been killed in a targeted attack close to Damascus. Hajizadeh is understood to have been the senior commander who oversaw the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.

Context: While Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the strike in Tehran, the dual targets in Beirut and Tehran within a few hours appears to be an impressive intelligence and operational achievement for Israel.

  • Open speculation remains as to how Haniyeh was killed. Some reports suggest a missile was launched from outside Iran, while others believe the targeted killing was implemented from a closer proximity, implying operatives on the ground.
  • This is the latest targeted strike inside Iran, further exposing the gaps in the regime’s internal security.
  • As a formal guest of the Ayatollah, and staying in a ‘secure residence’ operated by the IRGC, Haniyeh’s death is seen in Iran as constituting a further psychological blow to the regime, which is likely also a factor in their consideration of response.
  • According to the Iranian warning, a response may come directly from Iran – similar to the attack in April in which 300+ drones and missiles were fired at the Israeli home front. Alternatively, the possibility exists that Iran will utilise all of the members of its Axis of Resistance – in , Iraq and Yemen – to carry out an integrated multi-theatre response.
  • Israel will be partly reassured by US Secretary Austin’s support and will hope that the regional alliance between Israel, US and regional partners, known as Middle East Air Defence (MEAD), will be as effective as thwarting the Iranian attack in April.
  • The strikes on Haniyeh and Shukr are the latest example of an Israeli tactic to target the top leadership in Hamas and Hezbollah.
    • In early January, Saleh Al-Arouri, Haniyeh’s deputy and one of the founders of the armed wing of Hamas, was killed in Beirut (although Israel did not take formal responsibility).
    • In mid-July, a strike in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing.  The confirmation of his death was formally recognised by Israel this morning.
    • In March, Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy was killed.
    • In April, an airstrike in Damascus killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in , Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.
  • Haniyeh, who has been Hamas’ political leader since 2017, is the highest -profile member of the group to be killed following the October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza.
  • On October 7th he was recorded praying in celebration of the attacks, and called on West Bank Palestinians to join the battle.
  • Today is the 300th day since October 7th, with 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. Inside Israel, hostage families and their supporters continue their campaign to pressure the government to move forward with the deal.
  • According to Prime Minister Netanyahu the extended military campaign serves to increase the pressure on Hamas and to support Israel in the negotiations. Others are concerned Haniyeh’s death makes a deal harder to conclude.
  • In parallel, IDF troops are continuing operational activity in Gaza.
    • In the Rafah area troops are currently operating in the area of Tel al-Sultan, where they dismantled a structure rigged with explosives that was used by Hamas terrorists.
    • In the area of Khan Yunis, launchers loaded with rockets and aimed toward Israeli territory were struck by the IDF.

Looking ahead: Following the memorial ceremony in Tehran, Haniyeh’s body will be flown to Doha for a formal burial.

  • An Iranian response is anticipated in the coming days with Israel on a peak state of alert preparing for any scenario. Israel’s air defences are on maximum alert, the air force jets patrolling the skies and ground forces on heightened vigilance along all the borders.
  • The head of Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said, “The Israeli Air Force defends and operates in all arenas of the war, enveloping the State of Israel with dozens of aircraft, manned and unmanned, ready and prepared within minutes for any scenario, in any arena. We will act against anyone planning to harm the citizens of the State of Israel, there Is nowhere that is too far for us to strike”
  • So far the Israel’s Home Front command has not yet given any further instructions to the Israeli civilian population.

May 31, 2023

Efforts resume to reach compromise on judicial reform

  • The representatives of the coalition and opposition resumed their dialogue yesterday under the auspice of the President’s office.
  • President Herzog left yesterday on a diplomatic mission to meet the President of Azerbaijan, but before leaving related to the compromise talks saying, “We can reach understandings. It takes effort, goodwill, and leadership, and I say: Ignore the background noise and think about the goal…No one will violate our values or basic principles.”
  • Last night the two leading opposition party leaders, Lapid and Gantz put out a joint statement: “We are continuing all the time in a true attempt to reach broad agreements, and are committed to keeping Israel democratic and stable. We are attentive to the voices and know that most of the public want dialogue over leaving the room.”
  • “Dialogue at the President’s Residence is the only possibility to find a joint solution. Nonetheless, we clarified that the continuation of the talks are contingent on the chance to reach an advancement, on the commitment to the process in the room and outside of it, and on stopping the sword of the judicial overhaul with a clear commitment that there will be no legislation that will lead to a change in Israel’s system of government.”
  • However, also yesterday, Religious Zionist Party MK Rothman, chairman of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, and one of the drivers of the reforms (and not part of the compromise talks) told Kan Radio that the talks were “meaningless,” and that “if the president had wanted to lead to agreements, he had thousands of opportunities… I do not intend to waste my precious time on futile discussions.”
  • Context: The compromise talks resumed yesterday following a break that saw the government successfully pass a two-year budget that gives it relative stability.
  • There are contradictory voices from with the ruling Likud Party on whether the issue of judicial reform will return to the legislative agenda.
  • Earlier in the week Yediot Ahronot anonymously quoted several senior Likud figures who said the judicial reform is dead. They argued that given the overall circumstances, including the political and economic challenges and the social divides within society, Netanyahu has come to recognise that there is no real option of advancing the reform.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has denied those claims, emphasising the importance of the talks at the President’s Residence. At the weekly Likud Knesset faction meeting Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “the reform is not dead, but we are making every effort at dialogue in order to reach a broad consensus. Don’t believe what you read… Not even in Yediot Ahronot. There are a lot of things going on, many processes; I don’t want to go into all of them. The people who are ‘inside’ the issues are inside; others will be soon. I understand that this is causing a certain frustration and a situation that we are not sharing things at any given moment, but the intentions are good.”
  • There is continued speculation over gaps within the Likud, with Justice Minister Levin remaining hawkish in his reform agenda, whist Netanyahu appears invested in the compromise talks being led by his close confidant Minister Dermer.
  • Meanwhile protests against the judicial reform have continued, on Saturday night for the 21st consecutive week, tens of thousands demonstrated in Tel Aviv, where former Defence Minister Yaalon called on Lapid and Gantz to “stop acting as fig leaves for the prime minister” and “leave the negotiations.”
  • Whilst both sides currently remain committed to dialogue, the reform of the judges selection committee bill remains frozen, but can be return to the Knesset agenda to be passed into law with a day’s notice.
  • Looking ahead: The next deadline is the election of the Knesset representatives for the judges selection committee, scheduled for June 14.
  • In the current format the committee includes two members of Knesset, one from the government and one from the opposition. (The rest of the nine person committee includes two government ministers, three Supreme Court justices and two members of the Israel Bar Association. Also, one each of the Knesset members, ministers, judges and Bar Association members must be a woman).
  • There is concern whether the government will keep with this convention, or deny an opposition a place on the committee.
  • The nominees need to be presented a week earlier, by that point it will be clear if the coalition will respect the existing makeup – by only presenting one candidates.
  • Even if the Knesset selects one coalition and one opposition, it is still at Justice Minister Levin’s discretion whether to convene the committee.
  • Two justices for the Supreme Court, including President Hayut are due to retire at the end of October.

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