Northern front: Dozens of rockets and missiles continue to target northern Israel, as the IDF continues its miliary campaign in Lebanon. On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the Lebanon border noting, “from here one can see and hear the changed reality.” Netanyahu said, “We are striking all areas in Lebanon. I would like to make it clear: with or without an agreement, the key to restoring the calm and security in the north, the key to returning our residents in the north safely to their homes, is – first of all – to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani. Second is to strike at any attempt to rearm itself. Third is to respond vigorously to any action against us. Simply put, enforcement, enforcement, enforcement – and cutting off Hezbollah’s pipeline from Iran through Syria. To all of this we are committed.” Over the weekend, IDF commandos carried out an unusual operation in the northern Lebanese coastal town of Batroun. Forces were able to enter from the sea and apprehend and extract a senior Hezbollah commander and transfer him back to Israel for questioning. In another rare announcement, the IDF confirmed that they also carried out an operation in southern Syria. According to the IDF the target was, “Ali Soleiman al-Assi, a Syrian citizen…. His activities included gathering intelligence on IDF troops in the border area for future terror activity of the network. Ali Soleiman al-Assi has been under IDF surveillance, was detained and transferred for interrogation in Israel.” The IDF also announced the elimination of two Hezbollah commanders in the area of Tyre. One was the commander of Hezbollah’s forces in the coastal sector, the second, Hezbollah’s artillery commander in the same sector. Between them they were responsible for launching more than 400 rocket and mortar projectiles just in the last month. This corresponds to roughly 10 per cent of total launches in this period.Elsewhere, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck the commander of Hezbollah’s Nasser Unit missiles and rockets array, as well as the commander of the drones array in the unit in Jouaiyya in southern Lebanon. They were responsible for multiple rocket attacks, including the attack in Majdal Shams, which killed 12 children and the rocket attack on Metula last Thursday, which resulted in the deaths of 5 civilians.The IAF also targeted and killed the Hezbollah commander of the Khiam area, along with a Radwan Forces commander. They were responsible for many anti-tank missile and rocket attacks. As part of the continued ground operation, the IDF announced, “troops located numerous weapons stored in both the kitchen and children’s room, including RPGs, rocket launchers, rockets, grenades, and AK-47 rifles. In the same civilian building, which was used as a weapons storage facility, a large cache of military tactical equipment, combat gear, and intelligence documents was found, used by Hezbollah operatives who had barricaded themselves in the building.”
The scandal: An investigation has been launched following suspicion that classified and sensitive intelligence information was taken from the IDF. After a court lifted a gag order, it is now permitted to report that Eli Feldstein, a spokesperson in the Prime Minister’s Office, is alleged to have taken intelligence material and leaked it to foreign media sources. The chief concern is that the information was liable to severely damage state security, endangered information sources and potentially undermined efforts to release the hostages. There is a further suspicion and allegations that the material was manipulated before being leaked.It is also being alleged that Feldstein failed his security clearance, but was still employed by the Director-General of the Prime Minister’s Office. Three other suspects from within the defence establishment were arrested. The remand of three of them was extended, and one was released. Although the prime minister has sought to distance himself from the case he faces increasing political pressure.For the first time in a year and half, Leader of the Opposition Lapid and his centrist rival MK Gantz held a joint press conference on Sunday night. Lapid said, “Netanyahu said in the past that he did not know that there was a problem on Mt. Meron, that he did not know about the submarines, that he did not know about the warnings before October 7, and now he says that he did not know what his bureau was doing at a time that Israel is at a war for its existence. Netanyahu’s line of defence is that he has no influence or control over the system that he heads. If that is true, he is unfit to lead the State of Israel in the most difficult war in its history.”Gantz said, “When we quit the government, I said that political considerations had infiltrated the holy of holies of Israel’s security. We warned of this in real time. We’ve reached the stage of the proof. If sensitive security information was stolen and became a tool in a campaign of political survival, this is not just a criminal offence, this is a national crime.”
Hopes for a ceasefire: There is cautious optimism that a ceasefire agreement in the north can be reached in the next couple of weeks.The broad parameters reinforcing previous agreements are understood to include the removal of Hezbollah south of Litani River and efforts preventing Hezbollah from re-arming. Israel would then gradually redeploy out of the Lebanon.There is added impetus as both presidential candidates (and President Biden) all support an end to the fighting.What remains is for Israel is to reach an understanding with international partners for legitimacy to act if / when Hezbollah violates the agreement by returning south or seeking to re-arm.
Iranian threat: Israel remains on high alert for an Iranian attack after Ayatollah Khamenei threatened Israel with “a crushing response.” There appears to be a consensus within the Iranian leadership, even among the ‘moderates’ over the need to respond, perhaps even stronger than the October 1st attack.It is anticipated that they will wait until after the US election, but before inauguration. The Iranians are concerned that an imminent response would help Trump in the election. Khamenei also hinted that their response may not necessarily be solely military, but could also include making advances towards nuclear proliferation |
