Hamas – BICOM

Updated September 3, 2026

Israeli special forces detain Hamas security chief

What’s happened: Israeli forces operating inside a Gaza refugee camp deep in Hamas-controlled territory successfully detained Muein al-Arabid, the head of Hamas’ internal security service (equivalent to MI5) on Tuesday.

The dramatic operation in the Shati refugee camp was preceded by coordinated airstrikes by the IDF. According to reports in various Arab media outlets, local militias opposed to Hamas also fired on Hamas targets to create a diversion during the abduction. These reports were denied by Israeli officials.
The operation followed a relative lull in Israeli operations in Gaza, in line with American requests to Israel. Most of the recent Israeli offensive actions in Gaza were focussed on killing terrorists directly involved in the October 7 massacre or in the holding of Israeli hostages kidnapped.
The capture of al-Arabid was widely seen in Israel as an operational and intelligence coup. It indicated to Hamas that Israel could operate anywhere in Gaza and on either side of the Yellow Line. His capture alive signalled to them that information that Hamas considers protected will likely soon be known to the Israelis, including operational plans, hideouts, financing mechanisms, and more. And it added pressure on Hamas in the ongoing impasse with the Board of Peace on disarmament.
It was to this impasse that Defence Minister Yisrael Katz alluded when he spoke of the operation, saying, “We won’t budge from Gaza until the Strip is demilitarized, Hamas is disarmed and all the terrorist tunnels are destroyed. And even then, the IDF will remain in Gaza along defensive lines and will ensure the security of the western Negev communities.”

The IDF also confirmed yesterday that another operation earlier in the week resulted in the killing of two wanted Hamas terrorists, including Talal Mustafa Saleh Badawi, a commander in the Military Security Department of Hamas’ Gaza City Brigade, who was likely the target of the operation.
In a separate update, the IDF confirmed that it had destroyed or otherwise rendered inoperable some 26 kilometres of tunnels in Hamas’ expansive Gaza tunnel network.
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited troops operating inside Gaza yesterday, accompanied by Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir and other senior officers following the successful raid in Shati. Following a briefing by officers in theatre, he told soldiers in an IDF outpost in Gaza, “We control 60% of the Strip and there is more to come because we’re killing the terrorists who threaten us. We’ve done that frequently. We nabbed the head of Hamas’s internal security service. I’m sure we’ll learn a few things. There’s more work that still needs to be completed, and we’ll complete it.”

Context: The significance of al-Arabid’s detention goes beyond mere intelligence gathering. As head of internal security, he would have been the person responsible for protecting other senior Hamas figures, who will now have to take extra measures for their own safety and more strictly avoid meeting each other. This alone will presumably make any Hamas operations in the Strip harder to carry out.

If any Hamas operations were in mature planning stages, they will either need to be carried out immediately without a clear chain of command and in an aborted state of readiness or risk being entirely known to Israeli interrogators. In such a situation, the Hamas regime’s ability to continue its internal repression will also take a hit, something which it is hoped in Israel (and presumably in the Board of Peace too) will bring Hamas positions on disarmament closer to those of the other parties to the ceasefire agreement.
In addition, it is presumed al-Arabid’s had knowledge of additional details of the planning and execution of the October 7 invasion and massacre. Any information he passes on to Israel regarding these will be useful hunting down and prosecuting terrorists who participated in the massacre.

Looming over the various operations in Gaza is the impasse over the Board of Peace’s 15-point “Gaza Roadmap,” published on July 30. Israel has publicly rejected the plan as written, and has sought clarifications on several points from the Americans and the Board’s Director-General Nickolay Mladenov. Hamas publicly accepted the plan, but pledged itself to an implementation of several of the points that was explicitly in violation of the written text.
Israeli objections focussed primarily on the sequencing, with Israel concerned that it would be forced to carry out withdrawals before Hamas weapons are decommissioned. Publicly, senior Israeli political officials have committed Israel to a position of no withdrawals until complete decommissioning, though in subsequent talks during the month of August with the US, there appeared to be some agreement to limited phased withdraws following significant decommissioning subject to international verification.
Hamas, for its part, has insisted that storing weapons without disabling them could count as “decommissioning.” It has also sought to distinguish between “heavy weapons” that could be used for military operations against Israel and “light weapons” that could are used to maintain its rule and influence in the territory, with a preference for holding onto some of the latter. Mladenov has emphasised in talks and in public statements that decommissioning covers all weapons, makes no distinction among them, and would not just be a storage mechanism. The text of the Roadmap explicitly commits the sides to reaching a “One Authority, One Law, One Weapon” status in Gaza under the NCAG, the technocratic committee which is supposed to govern Gaza in the interim period following the decommissioning of Hamas.
Hamas also insists that decommissioning cover the weapons of other militias operating in the Strip, including various armed gangs suspected of operating with Israeli consent.
Regarding so-called “light weapons,” the Board of Peace insists that the Roadmap actually covers police weapons in the earliest stage of the sequenced decommissioning.
The IDF also released an update on the aid situation in Gaza since the ceasefire went into effect eleven months ago. According to official figures, the volume of aid entering Gaza “significantly exceeds the humanitarian needs as defined by UN agencies, international organisations, and assessments conducted throughout the war.”
- 2 million tons of food have entered the Strip since the ceasefire began, with roughly 600 trucks entering each day. Food prices have declined by 72% since major combat operations stopped last October.
- Four water pipelines are now operational in Gaza, including three providing water directly from desalination plants in Israel. An additional desalination facility in Gaza is powered by electricity provided by Israel.
- 21,000 tons of medical supplies have entered Gaza since the ceasefire began, as have 74,000 tons of hygiene and sanitation supplies.
- Eight permanent hospitals, four field hospitals, and four medical centres are currently operating in the northern Gaza Strip. Two permanent hospitals and eight field hospitals are currently operating in the southern Gaza Strip.
- All this occurs despite repeated attempts by Hamas to intercept humanitarian supplies and use humanitarian deliveries to smuggle prohibited items into Gaza.

Looking ahead: Despite American-led talks in August closing many gaps on the measures laid out in the Roadmap document, it is not expected that any major steps will be taken by either side before the upcoming elections in Israel on October 27 or even in the US the week after.

In the meantime Israel is expected to continue carrying out occasional operations inside Gaza, despite the ceasefire and beyond the Yellow Line. Israeli officials speaking to foreign counterparts tend to emphasise the preventive or pre-emptive nature of these operations, taken to deal with imminent threats to the IDF or Israeli civilians. Speaking to domestic audiences, officials tend to emphasise IDF operations that result in killing terrorists known to have taken part in the October 7 massacre.

August 25, 2026

Kite threat returns to the Gaza border

What’s happened: Over the past week there has been a return of kites being launched from inside Gaza that land in communities on the Israeli side.

At least four kites were released from Gaza over the weekend. The IDF stressed that nothing suspicious was found on the kites and there was no danger to the public. But Israelis, particularly those living close to the border recall the pre-October 7 threat, when kites and balloons carried incendiary devices that would explode or ignite wildfires.
On Monday two more kites were released from Gaza and landed in Gaza periphery communities. One landed inside Kibbutz Nahal Oz and the second in an open field near Kibbutz Reim.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz issued a joint statement, “Israel warns Hamas that if the launches toward Israel do not cease immediately, the IDF will act to increase targeted strikes against those responsible for the launches and will evacuate the population from areas used as launch sites for kites, drones, and balloons. The Prime Minister clarified that there will be no return to the state of affairs prior to October 7. Israel will not allow the Hamas terrorist organisation or any other element in the Gaza Strip to threaten our communities again and compromise our citizens’ sense of security.”
On Sunday, the IDF confirmed that it intercepted a kite in the skies over Gaza for the first time in six years.
President Herzog visited the Gaza periphery on Monday where he participated in an opening ceremony of a new community centre in Kibbutz Nir Oz. Herzog said that, “After October 7, the State of Israel cannot underestimate any sign or any concern from border residents, but it also can’t allow any kite to return the Gaza Strip to October 6…The security of the Envelope’s residents must stand at the heart of every arrangement and every future for Gaza.”
Herzog added that last week he thanked Jared Kushner for the efforts of the US administration and stressed that “the security of border residents must stand at the heart of any arrangement on the future of Gaza Nir Oz residents no longer need to stand in front of the border and ask themselves the meaning of everything that flies in the sky. This is the responsibility of the state. To see, to know, to prevent, and to defend. It is also the responsibility of the international community, the member countries of the Board of Peace, to internalise and understand this principle.”
Kan News reported that the Board of Peace met for on Monday to discuss the kites and said it is dealing with the issue with utmost seriousness.

Context: For the residents of the Gaza periphery the return of the kites represents an ominous threat. The kites, which are believed to have released from the northern Gaza Strip, carried various inscriptions in Arabic, intended to convey a psychological message. For example, one of them included the message, “We will never be calm.”

In the past, initially, kites were flown without flammable materials in order to gauge where they would land, and after them came kites with flammable materials that caused fires.
Kite-launched incendiary devices were frequently deployed against Israel from Gaza in the years before the October 7, 2023 causing significant economic and material damage to southern agricultural communities. The accumulative damage was estimated by the UN to amount to $20 milion back in 2018.
Shaar Hanegev Regional Council Chairman Uri Epstein told Yediot Ahronot, “After October 7, we will not accept the words ‘everything will be fine’ again. We have already seen on the northern border how threats constantly change and evolve, and the response must precede them, not chase after them. The writing is already in the sky. Now it is the IDF’s responsibility to act in time.”
The IDF’s Southern Command has been tracking the trend vigilantly and has said that it is well aware of the public sensitivity and the negative impact it has had to the residents’ sense of security. Defence officials tried to reassure the public. Initial investigations indicate that children and teenagers have flown the kites at the instruction of Hamas commanders, and that at this stage, no explosive charges or incendiary devices have been attached to them. They have emphasised the distinction between attempts of psychological harassment on the one hand, with a concrete military threat on the other.
Environmental terrorism tactics, such as arson, has, in the past, been deployed by various terrorist groups against Izrael in Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon.
In parallel IDF operations against Hamas continues inside Gaza:
- The IDF continues to clear areas under its control. Over the weekend troops sealed two additional underground tunnel routes belonging to Hamas, with a combined length of more than two kilometres.
- In Deir al-Balah the IDF targeted a Hamas company commander. According to the IDF he, “advanced terror attacks and took part in efforts to restore Hamas’ underground infrastructure,” adding that he, “posed an immediate threat to IDF troops and was eliminated in order to remove the threat.”
- On Sunday the IDF struck another Nukhba commander who infiltrated Israeli territory on October 7th.
- Overnight Monday, the IDF struck two Hamas terrorists, again in the Deir al-Balah area including another Nukba terrorist who infiltrated Israeli territory and participated in the October 7th Massacre. According to the IDF, the pair, “had been planning to advance terror attacks targeting IDF troops and Israeli civilians and attempted to rehabilitate the terrorist organisation, while systematically violating the ceasefire. The strike was conducted in order to remove the threat.”
- The IDF also announced that troops in the Paratroopers Brigade completed a three month mission in the Gaza Strip. During that time, together with an elite engineering unit, they “dismantled and sealed underground tunnels totalling 13 km in length, including part of the tunnel where LT Hadar Goldin was held. The troops dismantled numerous terrorist infrastructure sites and located weapons… included RPG rockets, mortar shells, grenades, missile launchers, and ammunition.”
Israel continues to share their intelligence with the US and members of the Board of Peace to expose that Hamas are not prepared to disarm despite their commitment to do so. In the meeting a week ago when the Board of Peace met with Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya in Cairo, Hayya had pledged that Hamas would give up its arms, stop its efforts to rearm and relinquish Hamas’s control over the Gaza Strip.
According to Channel 12 News Jared Kushner bluntly told the Hamas’s representatives that if the group tried to cheat, the process would stop and no one would stand in Israel’s way. A Board of Peace sources told the channel, “Kushner is determined to refrain from repeating the old paradigm from the past 20 years, ever since Hamas seized control of Gaza. He is worried that the old approaches will lead to Israel’s further international isolation and, even worse, to the perpetuation of Hamas’s rule while it is armed and building itself up.”
The Board of Peace officials view Israel as being in a win-win situation, and said that if Israel honours the commitments it undertook and if Hamas fails to honour its commitments, Israel will be granted free rein to deal with the threat. Alternatively, if Israel is perceived as being responsible for derailing the plan, it won’t have the political credit it will need to change the situation and Gaza might become stuck with the current status, Hamas rule.

Looking ahead: Israel informed the Board of Peace that if kite launches are not halted within three days, the IDF would significantly escalate its operations in the Gaza Strip.

The October 7 Council, an independent Israeli civic and advocacy body representing hundreds of families affected by the October 7, including bereaved families, survivors, and former hostages, are soon expected to release a report outlining the breakdowns that preceded the October 7 attacks.
Last week the Attorney General said that the establishment of a formal state commission of inquiry should now wait till a new government is formed after the election.
Regarding the kites, there is concern that they are being used as a precursor for fiber optic drones that have been used with lethal effect by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

August 20, 2026

Israel warns Turkey against deepening military presence in Syria

What’s happened: The IDF conducted an air strike early Tuesday morning on a Syrian airbase in the Idlib Governate in northwestern Syria. According to Israeli reports, two Israeli fighter jets carried out the strike, and according to Syrian reporting, eight targets were hit.

The air strike came just hours after the visit to the airbase by a Turkish delegation, and it was widely interpreted as an Israeli warning against deepening Turkish involvement in post-Assad Syria.
Official reaction from the US came not from Washington but rather from US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who also serves an American special envoy to Syria and Iraq. He called the Israeli air strike an “unnecessary escalation” and said that the US was for working to establish a “deconfliction mechanism” for Israel, Syria, and Turkey.
US Ambassador to Israel also spoke of the need for an American-led deconfliction mechanism, saying that “all the various parties—Syria, Turkey, Israel—will be able to have a mechanism through which they can communicate and make sure that any intentions are clearly understood. Nobody wants to see an escalation of intention, an intention of violence.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu released a pre-recorded video in which he addressed the operation in Syria on Tuesday explaining the rationale behind the IDF operation. “We will not tolerate Turkish military entrenchment that descends southward,” he said in the video. “It threatens us. That is something that we conveyed generally speaking. Now, we have seen that Turkey intends on establishing itself at an airport that is south of its [border] line, near Aleppo, and we sent a clear message. How might I define that message? Don’t. The message was delivered, but apparently it wasn’t heard, so we made sure they might understand it better.”
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani condemned the Israeli air strike as “unjustified,” while also making a point of emphasising that Syria has no plan to let Turkish forces be stationed at the targeted airbase. Syrian officials were quoted in media reports as claiming that the Turkish visit to the airbase was intended to review ongoing rehabilitation work.
Turkish officials strongly condemned the Israeli air strike while refraining from addressing the central Israeli claim of a possible Turkish military presence at the site. Ankara’s communications directorate instead accused Israel’s leadership of making “untenable allegations … intended to legitimise Israel’s unlawful airstrikes targeting Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and of pursuing “expansionist and destabilising policies in the region ahead of the elections in Israel.”

Context: Over the past decade and a half the IDF has carried out extensive operations in southwestern Syria, in areas close to the border with Israel, this particular operation was unusual in that it took place far from Israel and close to Syria’s border with Turkey.

This latest strike has been justified by Israeli officials as a violations of the agreed “status quo” in place in Syria. The status quo, as Israeli officials see it, essentially respects full Syrian sovereignty over Syrian territory despite the presence of both Israeli and Turkish forces in small parts of Syrian territory. As understood by the Israeli side, it commits the Syrians not to allow any further encroachment into Syrian territory of another regional power — including Iran and Turkey. Importantly, this would mean that Israel has not demanded that Turkey be ejected from the Syrian territory it currently holds, but that Israel strongly objects to any expansion of the Turkish presence. This would be doubly true if that presence involved air or naval forces.
Turkish forces currently occupy about 5,000 square kilometres of Syrian territory in northern Syria. This is roughly half the territory that Turkey occupied during the peak of the Syrian Civil War, when it held at times as much as 10,000 square kilometres. In comparison, Israeli forces moved into southwestern Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime and presently control roughly 350 square kilometres of Syrian territory.
According to reports in Israeli media, a telephone call was held between the Syrian Foreign Minister and the Director of the Mossad earlier this week to discuss the status quo arrangement in general and Israel’s concerns about a possible Turkish military buildup in Syria. This is the highest level direct contact between Syrian and Israeli officials that has ever been publicly acknowledged. In the call, which took place only days before the air strike on the Syrian airbase, the Mossad Director told the Syrian Foreign Minister that Israel would not tolerate any deepening of the Turkish military presence in Syria.
Israel and Turkey conducted talks in Azerbaijan in 2025 intended to come to some discreet understandings about the two countries’ priorities in post-Assad Syria. Whatever agreements may have been reached there were not publicly disclosed.
Israeli officials have long been concerned about Erdoğan’s aggressive posture, both domestically and across the region. As his rule becomes more authoritarian at home, Erdoğan has increasingly drawn on the legacy of the Ottoman Empire to advance Turkey’s regional ambitions. These concerns are compounded by Turkey’s continued financial support for Hamas and its provision of safe haven to Hamas terrorists. Erdoğan also routinely employs anti-Israel rhetoric in political campaigning and official communications. In June, for example, he accused Netanyahu of “following the path of Hitler”, while Turkey’s interior minister called for the “liberation of Jerusalem”.
The proposed “deconfliction mechanism” was the same term used to describe the coordination between Israel and Russia under the Assad regime, and was primarily aimed to ensure there would be no direct entanglements between the two militaries, particularly their air forces.
Under the Assad regime, Syrian airbases were occasionally leased to the Iranians. The fall of the regime removed a potent threat from Israel’s immediate neighbourhood. But Israeli planners are concerned that the new regime could be angling to replace the Iranian presence in Syrian bases with a Turkish one. Israel is also concerned about heightened Turkish naval activity in the Syrian arena. Turkey’s NATO membership and its close relations with the United States — and the Trump administration in particular — make any threat assessment by Israel particularly sensitive.

Looking ahead: From Israel’s perspective, the limited air strike should establish a clear red line that ends the affair without any direct confrontation with either Syria or Turkey — and without any unnecessary provocation of the United States.

The moves in Syria by the new regime and two close US allies with vastly differing interests all occur on a backdrop of a stalemate in the US-Iran conflict and potential progress on the implementation of the Comprehensive Plan for Gaza, which ended the war there in October 2025.
President Trump announced an economic “D-Day” that would go into effect, severely limiting Iran’s ability to trade internationally, while multiple reports indicate that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been partially restored on the Omani side of the Strait.
If Trump’s new sanctions can effectively cripple the Iranian economy, and if Iran has lost the ability to completely shut off commercial traffic through the Strait, that would indicate that the US can wait for now before threatening any new military action, at least until after elections take place in both the US and Israel in the next ten weeks.

August 18, 2026

Israel agrees to Gaza reconstruction to begin after Hamas disarmament

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu met yesterday with Jared Kushner, Nickolay Mladenov and Sir Tony Blair to discuss the Board of Peace’s plan for Gaza.

The meeting lasted over three hours, at the end the Prime Minister’s Office announced, “It was agreed to establish two working groups, one on disarmament and demilitarisation of Gaza, which both Israel and the Board of Peace are determined should be prompt and completed before any reconstruction happens in Gaza. A second working group will focus on sanitation, clean water and other public health issues for the people of Gaza and which also impact the people of Israel.”
They also met with President Herzog, who said after the meeting, “I am grateful for the ongoing efforts of President Trump’s Special Envoy Jared Kushner and the Board of Peace, led by Nickolay Mladenov, in advancing to the next stages in Gaza in accordance with President Trump’s 20-Point Plan. I was impressed that Israel’s security interests are an important and central element of their plan. I commended and encouraged their efforts to ensure a brighter and more secure future for the people of Israel, the people of Gaza, and the entire region.”
Following the meeting Kushner told Fox News, “For Israel we think this is a win-win situation because if Hamas actually gives over the weapons and the tunnels willingly over the next 60 to 90 days that obviously would be the elimination of a huge security threat for Israel, almost an unthinkable achievement.”
In parallel to the meetings Kan News reported that senior military officers from Uganda and Burundi visited the Civil Military Coordination Centre (CMCC) in Kiryat Gat to prepare for the deployment of hundreds of troops in the Gaza Strip as part of the International Stabilization Force (ISF). They met with officers from the IDF and the US Army, who presented the operational plans to them.

Context: Following the board’s meeting with Hamas in Egypt on Sunday it was important for Israel to remain closely coordinated to ensure their vital interests were protected within the context of the Trump plan.

Israel and the Board of Peace appear in agreement over the end goal to ensure Hamas is disarmed and its military infrastructure decommissioned. The main disagreement appeared to be over sequencing, which this meeting seems to have resolved. Initially the Board of Peace planned to connect incremental disarmament, the deployment of the ISF and gradual Israeli withdrawals. Faced with Israel’s objections it now seems there will be no withdrawal until Hamas has disarmed.
The parties agreed that in the initial stage of disarmament, Hamas’s weapons will be turned over to an American force that will decommission them, and not to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza.
In addition, an agreement was reached at the meeting that no reconstruction work would begin in Gaza before Hamas’s full disarmament. This apparently contradicts previous understandings that suggested Rafah would be part of initial pilot programme for reconstruction.
The second working group to be formed includes an Israeli obligation to facilitate water purification in the Gaza Strip as part of the effort to improve the humanitarian situation. As part of the meeting Shin Bet director Zini and head IDF Military Intelligence Maj. Gen. Binder presented extensive intelligence on conditions in Gaza and Hamas’ efforts to rebuild its capabilities. The presentation included Israeli intelligence alleging that Turkey is financing Hamas.
According to Israeli media reports Netanyahu also criticised Kushner for meeting with Hamas leaders, telling him, “These are the architects of Oct. 7.” Apparently, Kushner did not respond.
Furthermore, there is residual Israeli concern that Hamas’s talk about disarmament is another tactical ruse. Hamas remains ideologically committed to Israel’s destruction. The Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya who met with the Board on Sunday, was recently chosen as their new leader, with the backing of Iran.
According to the latest Israeli intelligence assessments Hamas currently feels under pressure for three reasons:
- The continued IDF’s deployment along the yellow line.
- The ongoing Israeli efforts to target Hamas military commanders.
- Internal pressure from Gazans civilians who have lost so much, and blame Hamas for initiating the attack almost three years ago.
In the meantime, Hamas has been focused on maintaining its control over the population, including reestablishing over 80 per cent of government institutions, including local authorities, the police and restoring their income though taxing the entrance of goods and of merchants. Whilst there had been hope of a popular revolt against Hamas, this no longer seems likely in the near future.

Looking ahead: Following Hamas’s commitment to disarm the burden of proof is now on Hamas to show that they really intend to honour their commitments.

It is hoped that Hamas will begin their disarmament in the next few weeks.

August 17, 2026

Board of Peace meets with Hamas in Egypt

What’s happened: Senior representatives of the Board of Peace including Jared Kushner, Tony Blair and Nickolay Mladenov met yesterday with Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya and other senior Hamas officials in Egypt to discuss the board’s 15-point proposal.

The goal of the current round of talks is to deescalate the conflict and to prevent the plan from collapsing before it can be implemented.
The delegation visited Egypt for talks with Egyptian President Sisi, and they also met with a Hamas delegation led by Khalil al-Hayya. According to reports the delegation pressured Hamas to begin to disarm.
They presented information that had been provided by Israel about Hamas violations, including its efforts to regroup militarily and to arm its operatives. This also included attempts to plant IEDs, deploying snipers to ambush IDF soldiers and infiltrating territory east of the yellow line.
Also on the agenda:
- The mechanism to start the handover of civilian powers to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG).
- An initial deployment of the International Stabilisation Force (ISF), which will be deployed in the areas designated for the pilot programme.
- Planning reconstruction work in areas that are not under Hamas’s control.
Meanwhile in Gaza, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out two air strikes on Sunday, one in the Nuseirat area and another in Khan Yunis. IDF officials said that both had been advancing terror attacks against IDF troops and had been designated “ticking bombs.” Both targeted killings were carried out after receiving authorisation from Prime Minister Netanyahu.
On Saturday, an IED was detonated as an IDF tank was driving past, but failed to inflict any casualties.
The Board of Peace representatives are understood to have told Hayya that progress with the implementation of the plan would result in an end to IDF strikes.

Context: A direct meeting between the Board of Peace and the Hamas leadership, is in itself a legitimising victory for the terror organisation. Two decades ago, it was Tony Blair himself (while serving as head of Quartet) who had insisted on three principles that Hamas adhere to: renounce violence, recognise Israel and accept previous diplomatic agreements.

Two weeks ago Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected the terms of the US led 15-point plan. Netanyahu told his cabinet on the 9th August, “The IDF will not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed. And when I say the disarming of Hamas, it means heavy weaponry, lighter weaponry, all weaponry. And we are talking about genuine disarmament, not fictitious disarmament.”
It is rare for an Israeli leader to explicitly reject a US diplomatic proposal. Some have explained this in the context of the upcoming election, where Netanyahu needs to restate his credentials as uncompromising on Israel’s security.
Secondly, he is a conscious that in the past he has famously stated that an Israeli prime minister should be judged on his ability to say no to an American president, so this has presented him with an opportunity to do so, which he hopes will resonate with the electorate.
In parallel there is growing regional pressure on Netanyahu. Eight Arab and Muslim countries issued a joint statement condemning Israel’s position, warning that it was jeopardising the efforts to make progress on implementing the plan. The declaration was signed by Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan—five Arab countries and three Muslim non-Arab countries.
However, in practice (and in keeping with the US demand) Israel has raised the threshold for the IDF strikes against Hamas. The two operations on Sunday, (along with two other recent targeted strikes), were personally authorised (after an eight day lull) by the prime minister.
The IDF operates in keeping with a key distinction between imminent threats to the troops and intelligence about a terrorist who is planning to act later. When an armed terrorist is spotted on the yellow line or while planting a bomb, soldiers are permitted to engage.Furthermore Israel has presented the Board of Peace with a document detailing 100 Hamas violations in just one week in the Gaza Strip. This follows an earlier document that detailed dozens of violations over a 24-hour period.
All this is meant to reinforce Netanyahu’s message that there will be no IDF withdrawal from the yellow line without full disarmament in the Gaza Strip.
In Israel’s favour, the Board of Peace has reiterated that it will not demand an Israeli withdrawal until Hamas has disarmed in a verifiable manner.
As a precondition, Hamas is demanding that the Rafah crossing be opened, that the IDF completely halt its fire and that heavy equipment be brought into Gaza to begin physical reconstruction.

Looking ahead: Kushner, Blair and Mladenov are due to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials later today to discuss the proposal and to share Hamas’s positions.

They are also expected to demand “parallel withdrawals” from Gaza if Hamas begins to disarm.
They will also discuss the prospective deployment of a first ISF unit. This is expected to comprise of Moroccan troops that are expected to arrive within the next six to eight weeks. Their roles will include supporting the disarmament mechanism, serving as a buffer between IDF forces and the Palestinian population, policing areas cleared of Hamas and securing food distribution.
If the negotiators are successful, the first pilot programmes are expected to be implemented in Rafah in the south and in an area in the northern Gaza Strip. Temporary camps will be built there for displaced Gazans, in which education, healthcare and other civilian services will be provided without any Hamas involvement.
In the context of disarming Hamas, the US are also exploring the feasibility for integrating Hamas into the political arena and its participation in future Palestinian elections.

August 3, 2026

President Trump: Hamas agrees to disarm

What’s happened: At the end of last week, President Trump announced that Hamas had accepted a proposal to disarm in Gaza.

Some of the key principles of the published plan state that:
- Israel shall fully complete, without delay, all remaining commitments under the Sharm El-Sheikh Protocol, particularly the cessation of military operations.
- Hamas and the Palestinian factions shall complete the cessation of all military operations in accordance with the Sharm El-Sheikh Protocol and the Peace Plan.
- A process to decommission and store heavy weapons, military production sites, weapons depots, and tunnels shall begin after completion of the remaining commitments under the Sharm El-Sheikh Protocol, the entry of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), and the deployment of the International Stabilisation Force (ISF).
- Progression from one phase to the next will depend on verified completion of the commitments of the previous phase. Verification will be carried out by the International Verification Committee (IVC), which will also monitor any violations by either party through an enhanced monitoring mechanism.
- Palestinian factions shall participate in this process, and no weapons shall be transferred or handed to Israel or any non-Palestinian parties.
Implementation of the roadmap, including the issue of weapons and other aspects of the comprehensive peace plan, is intended to create conditions for a credible pathway towards Palestinian self-determination and statehood.
On Friday, President Trump said Israel was “very happy” about the disarmament agreement. He added: “Most people said that would be a deal that would be undoable. Will it go through its ups and downs? It’s a very complex situation over there… But it’s a great breakthrough. Nobody’s ever thought that it would be possible to disarm Hamas.”
A senior US official and officials on the Board of Peace warned that Trump would be “very disappointed” if Israel blocked the plan.
However, statements from Israeli officials over the past few days appear to reject the proposal. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office said Israel demands “the full disarmament of Hamas, including removal of the weaponry from Gaza and the complete demilitarisation of the Strip as a condition for any process” of withdrawal. The statement added that the agreement does not provide “a sufficient response to those demands.”
Another Israeli statement said: “Israel has reiterated that there will be no IDF withdrawal from the current Yellow Line without the genuine disarmament of Hamas.”
Israeli opposition parties also criticised the proposal. Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Liberman said: “Any agreement with Hamas is a return to the same preconception that led Israel to the October 7 massacre. Instead of reaching understandings with Hamas, Hamas must be eliminated.”
British Foreign Minister Ed Miliband welcomed the announcement, adding: “The focus must now be on implementing the 20-point plan in full. This includes the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, and respect for the ceasefire from all parties.”
Meanwhile, the IDF has continued striking terrorist targets in Gaza, including the destruction of five weapons warehouses and Hamas weapons caches. Three militants who were preparing attacks on Israeli troops were also killed in recent strikes. Targeted killings included:
- Salem Jamal Abdel Rahman Abu Labad – commander of a Nukhba squad linked to the 7 October attack on Kibbutz Nir Oz.
- Muhammad Abdel Nasser Muhammad Khatib – commander in Hamas’s Maghazi Battalion in central Gaza.
- Alaa Imad Khamis Taramsi – member of the Army of Islam.
- Hassan Ibrahim Shehadeh Qahman – member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Ahmad Hadri – member of Hamas’s Jabaliya Battalion in northern Gaza.
American officials criticised the Israeli strikes, which also caused civilian casualties, saying they “further isolate Israel in the Middle East.” They argued that the agreement represented “the fruits of eight months of negotiations that were meant to bring about the demilitarization of Gaza,” and warned that Israeli actions could give Hamas “an excuse to withdraw” from the agreement.
Board of Peace Gaza envoy Mladenov said the strikes came “after intense efforts by the Board of Peace and the mediators (Egypt, Turkiye, Qatar and the US) to bring the Palestinian factions in Gaza to agree to a roadmap on the full implementation of President Trump’s plan, to hand over civilian governance and to decommission their weapons.”

Context: On paper, Hamas agreeing for the first time to transfer all civilian and security governance responsibilities in Gaza to another Palestinian authority, to refrain from interfering in its operations, and to accept the principle of “one authority, one law, one weapon” is highly significant.

Israel is demanding the surrender of rifles, rockets and explosives, as well as the continued destruction of tunnels. It insists that the disarmament process be completed before the IDF fully withdraws from Gaza.
Israel remains deeply sceptical of Hamas’s intentions. Israeli intelligence assesses that Hamas remains committed to rebuilding its military capabilities rather than genuinely demilitarising. A spokesperson from the Prime Minister’s Office said: “If we redeploy before Hamas is truly disarmed, it will quickly expand its presence throughout Gaza, rebuild its terrorist infrastructure, once again threaten Israeli communities, and seek to carry out another October 7-style attack… Disarming means physically giving up the weapons. Nothing less.”
One criticism of the agreement is that Hamas will not allow its weapons to be destroyed immediately, but only stored. The weapons will neither leave Gaza nor be handed to Israel, but instead transferred to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. Writing in Israel Hayom, Nadav Shragai argued that Hamas “is not disarming, but simply becoming a partner in managing its own arsenal, and this is only the beginning.” Many Israelis believe the agreement simply gives Hamas time to rebuild. The document also contains no requirement for senior Hamas leaders or personnel to leave Gaza.
A senior Board of Peace official told I24 News that Hamas’s surrendered weapons will remain inside Gaza at a secure location before eventually being dismantled and melted down.
The organisations responsible for supporting implementation are the International Stabilisation Force, currently consisting of around 200 soldiers from Uganda and Morocco, together with the Palestinian police. The Board of Peace has said it will verify Hamas’s compliance using Israeli intelligence, including information from the IDF and Shin Bet.
There is also disagreement over continued Israeli military operations in Gaza. Although the Board of Peace has announced understandings with Hamas on voluntary disarmament and Palestinian officials claim there is an agreement to halt IDF operations, Israeli officials insist there has been no change in policy. “We will continue to respond to threats.”
A further challenge for Israel is that, while it argues Hamas’s disarmament and Gaza’s demilitarisation are prerequisites for any withdrawal, journalist Ronen Bergman notes that the agreement begins by outlining Israel’s obligations under the Sharm El-Sheikh agreement.
These obligations include halting military operations and targeted killings, returning to the agreed Yellow Line, and reactivating the humanitarian protocol. This requires allowing at least 600 aid trucks per day, including 50 fuel trucks, ensuring free movement between northern and southern Gaza, reopening the Rafah crossing in both directions, and permitting the entry of debris-clearing equipment.
Another political challenge for the current Israeli government is that the framework explicitly links implementation to a “credible political pathway” towards a Palestinian state, although this was already part of President Trump’s original 20-point peace plan that led to the hostage release and Gaza ceasefire.
The composition of the International Verification Committee remains unclear, with Israeli concerns about any significant role for Qatar or Turkey.

Looking ahead: Several unresolved issues remain, including the timetable for future phases, the mandate of the International Stabilisation Force, the vetting procedures for local police authorised to perform security duties, and the screening of officials appointed to Gaza’s technocratic committee.

It also remains unclear whether implementation will proceed simultaneously with the collection of Hamas’s weapons, or whether any Israeli withdrawal will begin only after the weapons have been surrendered.
Talks are continuing in Cairo under Egyptian intelligence, with Qatari and Turkish mediation, as negotiators seek agreement on several remaining technical clauses.

July 8, 2026

Israel cautions against F-35s for Turkey

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu has advised President Trump not to supply Turkey with F-35 stealth fighter jets.

In an interview on CNN Tuesday evening, Netanyahu warned that, “notwithstanding the personal friendship that President Trump has with Erdoğan, it doesn’t make Turkey a friendly or a friendly state to the United States.”
“To the contrary,” Netanyahu continued, Turkey is “a regime that’s infected with the Muslim Brotherhood, which hates the United States.”
Referring to Erdoğan, Netanyahu said that “he harbours Hamas… He supports them. He finances them…He’s thrown his opponents in jail, all of them. He throws more journalists in jail than anyone can understand. So he’s not exactly a model ally of the United States. But even worse than that, he threatens Greece, a NATO ally. … And the most important thing, and I put it right on the table, he threatens to destroy my country, the one and only Jewish state.”
Netanyahu’s interview took place as President Trump arrived in Turkey for the NATO summit. As part of Trump’s visit he could announce that the US will advance the sale of F-35s to Turkey. When asked if was going to sell the F-35’s, the President said “Turkey has been in many ways much more loyal than other countries that we think would be loyal…so it is something we definitely would consider.”
Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter said that Israel does not believe Turkey should possess F-35 aircraft but stressed that “Israel understands that the US administration has a broader set of strategic considerations it must take into account when making the decision. We oppose the sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey, but will respect any American decision.”
Meanwhile, the US reportedly struck 80 targets in Iran. US CENTCOM confirmed they have begun “launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping.”
The statement stressed that the strikes were in response “to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.”
The US Treasury announced that they revoked the temporary waivers that were issued as part of the MOU with Iran, that had allowed Iran to sell oil. US officials have tied the decision to Iranian behaviour, insisting that that the commitments within the MOU are “performance based.”

Context: The F-35 programme was established in 2001, eight countries – including the UK – participated in the system development and demonstration phase of the F-35. Turkey joined the programme in 2002 and became a Level 3 Partner alongside Canada, Australia, Denmark and Norway.

In addition to Israel, the F-35 has subsequently been sold to several countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and a range of European states.
Israel has long term objections to Turkey buying the F-35’s. It would challenge Israel’s long held Qualitative Military Edge (QME) which has been a fundamental US doctrine (bound into US law). It is intended to ensure Israel’s military forces can defeat any credible conventional threat from state or non-state actors. For over 50 years it has guaranteed Israel’s tactical and technological superiority.
Israel is also concerned that it would disrupt the power balance in the region, particularly regarding their posture in the eastern Mediterranean and with regards to Greece and Cyprus.
Compounding this, Turkey already possesses advanced Russian made S-400 air defence system. US officials have long argued that it is incompatible for Turkey to operate the S-400 alongside the F-35. This could allow Russia to gain technological insights into the aircraft’s radar signature and electronic systems, which could potentially compromise the stealth capabilities of the entire F-35 fleet.
Israel is troubled by the outsized influence of US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack who is perceived as representing Erdoğan’s interests. The ambassador is very closely connected to the Turkish government, as well as possessing close connections in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
Trump sees Turkey as a NATO partner with a strong military and recently commended the country for not joining the “other side” during the war with Iran. Trump sees Turkey as a potential asset to help stabilise the region, rein in Russian influence, and keep Ankara in the West’s camp.
For Israel meanwhile, Erdoğan’s Turkey has become a regional adversary. It is part of the Muslim Brotherhood camp (along with Qatar), hosts Hamas officials, and supports Hamas politically and financially. For over a decade – and particularly since October 7 – it has regularly issued harsh and inciteful rhetoric against Israel.
Their rivalry in the eastern Mediterranean relates to Israel’s growing alliances with Greece and Cyprus and their shared interests over trade routes and energy infrastructure. This includes exploration for natural gas, and the project to connect Israel to the European electric grid via an underground cable.
It is no coincidence that on the same day that Trump arrived in Turkey, Netanyahu visited the Haifa Naval Base, where he emphasised the goal of the Navy, “to ensure the shipping lanes and the freedom of maritime trade, which are so vital to the State of Israel.”
According to Anna Barsky in Maariv, “It was a deliberate signal. Israel sought to clarify that it does not view Turkey exclusively as a future aerial threat, but as a broader strategic threat that might impact freedom of maritime traffic, energy infrastructure and the increasingly close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus. Officials in Athens and Nicosia have also been closely tracking the developments. From their perspective, the question isn’t just how many planes Turkey is given, but the renewed legitimacy that Washington might confer to Ankara’s regional policies.”
A sale of F35’s to Turkey would not just signal a military achievement for Erdoğan but also a political victory. Thanks to his relationship with Trump, Turkey will have consolidated its status as a regional power.

Looking ahead: Donald Trump announced this morning that the Iran ceasefire is over.

This announcement coincides with US Secretary of War Hegseth cancelling his scheduled trip to Israel. Hegseth was expected to discuss the potential sale of F-35s to Turkey.
The NATO summit is due to conclude later today.
Due to Turkish deployment of the S-400, significant legal and political obstacles remain to a deal within US Congress.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Mike Herzog, the former Israeli ambassador to the US, said in an interview on Army Radio this morning, “I’m not sure that it will really be possible to stop the deal. But I still think that Israel has a range of actions it can take in Congress. It can postpone by some years the delivery of the planes to Turkey.”

July 2, 2026

Israel marks 1000 days since October 7

What’s happened: Israel marked 1,000 days today since the October 7 massacre. Commemorations began this morning at 6:29, the hour of the initial salvo which opened the attack on that Saturday morning. A ceremony was held at 8:00 this morning at the site of the Nova Festival, where 378 Israelis were murdered and 44 abducted. Ceremonies and protests of various kinds are scheduled today in at least 50 different Israeli cities, towns, and villages.

1,000 days after the onset of war, and despite various ceasefires in place on all fronts, low intensity combat continued in Gaza. Just in the last few days, the IDF carried out a few successful targeted operation against wanted terrorists in the Gaza Strip.
On Tuesday, a precision operation successfully eliminated Adel Jihad Mohammad Asfour, a platoon commander in the military wing of Hamas, who was rebuilding and training new Hamas fighters in preparation for a future round of combat with Israel. The day before that, the IDF struck Mohammad Fathi Abd al-Hay Abu Fakher, a commander in Hamas’ Rafah brigade who for twenty years has served as a central figure in Hamas’ network of weapons smugglers.
Earlier this week, the IDF eliminated Talal Jaber Mohammad Abd al-Aal, an Islamic Jihad terrorist who took part in the October 7 attack and later in holding Israeli hostages kidnapped that day. One of his hostages, Rom Braslavski, reacted with relief at hearing that his tormentor was dead. “This is Talal Abd al-Aal, or as I know him, Abu Youssef,” he wrote on social media. “This is the man who weighed 100 kilograms and jumped on my neck while I was malnourished. This is his face. This is his hand. This is him.”
In other interviews, he described how al-Aal forced open his mouth at a time when he could barely move his emaciated body from malnutrition and spat into it. Braslavski, who has also spoken at length about the physical and sexual torture he endured in captivity, spoke yesterday with journalists about his satisfaction with the IDF operation to eliminate al-Aal and his continued trauma. “My October 7 continued every day, again and again,” he said. “As far as people are concerned, we have moved on. They say, ‘Look how nicely he is dressed, how nicely his hair is arranged,’ but no one knows what is happening inside. No one is with us when we wake up screaming at night. No one is with us when we get flashbacks in the middle of life.” Braslavski is expected to speak tonight at the main gathering in Hostages Square in Tel Aviv to commemorate 1,000 days since the massacre.
There were no public updates on US-Iran talks in held in Doha yesterday, but according to media reports they focused on mechanisms for reopening the Straits of Hormuz — an issue of acute concern not just for the two belligerent parties, the US and Iran, but especially for the mediating country, Qatar — and the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian assets held in Qatar. Iranian state media reported that the Doha talks had concluded, but did not report what the outcome was.

Context: On the one thousandth day of the war which Hamas and its allies launched against Israel on October 7, all the various parts of the axis arrayed against Israel are severely weakened, but not all are completely defeated.

Hamas has been reduced to a militia policing one third of Gaza, without any of its strategic capabilities to invade Israel or fire rockets on its cities.
Hezbollah is a shadow of its former self, struggling to sabotage a US-backed agreement that will lead to its dismantling by Lebanese authorities. Despite its loses, Hezbollah still maintains some of its military capabilities.
Iran has sustained two massive attacks by the US and Israel that have left its stock of uranium buried underground, its missile production facilities offline, and its economy in shambles.
Israel has recovered its hostages and made major strategic gains on all fronts, but defeated none of its enemies. The State itself and the Jewish people more widely have come under a sustained moral attack from activists, organisations, and governments the from across the world. Internally, despite a moment of unity, it remains divided as ever as elections approach and recriminations about the failures leading up to the attack mount.
State Commissions of Inquiry have been formed after previous security failures in Israel, but the current governing coalition has refused to allow such an inquiry to be held. A State Commission is normally chaired by a Supreme Court judge, and many in the Netanyahu bloc believe that this would unfairly bias the work of a committee formed under the State Commission of Inquiry law.
They have instead proposed an ad hoc Commission that would have equal representation of coalition and opposition figures. This proposal is rejected by opposition figures, senior military and security officials past and present, and, according to opinion polls, the overwhelming majority of Israeli citizens.
A decidedly nonpolitical commemoration was held by senior officers of the IDF yesterday evening at which Chief of Staff Zamir told assembled officers that the IDF was at a “strategic crossroads in the war” which began on October 7. “Today we are holding a multi-arena operational, intelligence, and strategic assessment, marking 1,000 days of combat,” he said. “This war has changed methods of warfare, operational concepts, and the way we operate. We remember, we learn, and we prepare for the continuation of the combat and the many challenges that lie ahead.” At the same event, he described the October 7 attack as “an attack on the very existence of the Jewish people.”
In pre-election opinion polls, former Chief of Staff Eisenkot’s Yashar party continues to strengthen, mostly at the expense of the combined list led by former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, known as Together.

Looking ahead: There is, as yet, no final date for the upcoming election, though speculation is focused on October 20, which would be only seven days earlier than the originally scheduled date of October 27 (which has still not been ruled out).

In Tel Aviv this evening there will be a protest outside the Defence Ministry and several events at the square in front of the Tel Aviv Museum of Art which has become known as Hostage Square, following the nonstop vigils there for two years after the massacre on behalf of the hostages held in Gaza until the last ones were released in October 2025.
Many of the unofficial ceremonies being held, including a large rally planned for tonight in Tel Aviv, are organised as protests demanding a State Commission of Inquiry into the failures that led to the massacre.

June 11, 2026

Gaza talks stall over Hamas disarmament

What’s happened: Talks continue in Egypt to reach an agreement on Hamas disarmament, in line with the comprehensive plan which ended two years of war in Gaza last October. Israel is not a participant in the talks, which are also mediated by Qatar and Turkey, along with Egypt.

According to Arab sources, Hamas has shown some willingness to give up its “heavy weapons,” but not its “light weapons. The former category includes the missiles and rockets it uses to attack Israel. The latter category includes the rifles and other munitions it needs to maintain its domestic control of Gaza.
The Israeli assessment is that Hamas has almost no heavy weapons left anyway, so this is at most a symbolic concession. Though Israel is not a party to the talks, it is unlikely to permit the entry into the Gaza Strip from Egypt of the so-called “technocratic committee” which is supposed to handle governance of Gaza unless there is an agreed disarmament that meets Israel’s minimal conditions.
Without disarmament, the progress of the comprehensive agreement is stalled, and the renewal of combat becomes more likely. This is especially the case as the major international actors involved have been laying the blame for the failure on Hamas and not on Israel, and as Israel will not, in any renewed hostilities, need to avoid operating in the Hamas redoubts of the refugee camps in the centre of the Strip for fear of harming Israeli hostages — because Hamas no longer holds any.

May 19, 2026

Hamas leader eliminated amid Gaza stalemate

What’s happened: Over the weekend the IDF eliminated Ez al-Dine al-Haddad, Hamas’s military wing commander and one of the last surviving architects of the October 7 massacre.

Israel says Haddad was responsible for the treatment of the hostages, used some of them as human shields, and was working to rebuild Hamas’s military capabilities and plan attacks.
In response to al-Haddad’s death, and as a reaction to the Knesset’s new law on the death penalty for convicted terrorist murderers, the IDF is warning that Hamas has instructed its operatives in the Gaza Strip to prepare to kidnap IDF soldiers. The instructions were issued by means of an internal memo that Hamas’s leadership disseminated among its ranks.
The Israel Navy continued overnight to intercept the latest Gaza bound flotilla. As of last night, IDF naval commandos had reportedly intercepted more than 30 of the 57 vessels that set sail from Turkey. Roughly 250 activists were arrested.
According to the Israeli Foreign Ministry, no humanitarian aid has so far been found on board any of the vessels.
The Foreign Ministry wrote on X, “The purpose of this provocation is to serve Hamas, to divert attention from Hamas’s refusal to disarm, and to obstruct progress on President Trump’s peace plan. As the Board of Peace—which oversees humanitarian activities in Gaza under UNSC Resolution 2803—made clear: this flotilla is only about publicity. The Gaza Strip is flooded with aid. Since October 2025 alone, more than 1.58 million tons of humanitarian aid and thousands of tons of medical supplies have entered Gaza. Israel will not allow any breach of the lawful naval blockade on Gaza. Israel calls on all participants in this provocation to change course and turn back immediately.”

Context: This latest targeted strike against Hamas’s leadership is being presented in Israel as another significant operational success, but not a strategic game changer.

Haddad’s death removes a senior figure who combined combat experience, organisational authority, and symbolic weight inside Hamas’s war structure. Haddad was Hamas’s fourth military commander since October 7. He follows:
- Mohammed Deif, the long-time commander of Hamas’s military wing who was eliminated by Israel in July 2024.
- Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy and a senior military commander, who was eliminated by Israel in March 2024.
- Mohammad Sinwar (Yahya Sinwar’s brother) and a senior military figure, was eliminated in May 2025.
- The overall leader Yahya Sinwar himself was eliminated by Israel in October 2024.
Despite these tactical achievements, military planners are wary of Hamas’s ability to regenerate leadership. According to Arab media, Haddad will be replaced by his close associate Mohammad Odeh. Odeh was apparently offered the role after the elimination of Mohammad Sinwar, but he declined, and Haddad took it on instead.
Odeh served as the head of Hamas’s intelligence headquarters. He is considered the natural successor, being the most senior figure in Hamas’s military wing and the last core member of Hamas’s military council who took part in planning and executing the October 7 massacre – including the significant intelligence gathering on Israel and IDF bases in the home front, which served as the basis for the operation.
Odeh was born in the Jabaliya refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip and served as commander of Hamas’s northern brigade from 2017-2019. Odeh has already survived several assassination attempts, including during the war.
Meanwhile, Hamas has reportedly been blocking reconstruction activity in Gaza, including preventing contractors from working on a planned new Palestinian city in Rafah. A group of Palestinian contractors were recently held up at gunpoint by Hamas and prevented from crossing into the Israel-controlled sector, despite the work having been coordinated by the CMCC and the Board of Peace.
It has been widely speculated that Hamas views any reconstruction, particularly outside its zone of control, as a threat to its continued rule in the Strip. The move comes against the backdrop of new polling data indicating a dramatic drop in Gazans’ support for Hamas.
Despite international hopes to start the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip, the Trump plan remains frozen as Hamas refuses to give up its weapons and demilitarise.
It is now over half a year since the deadline for Hamas’s disarmament passed. Israel has changed its deployment in the Strip by establishing an “orange line,” which has expanded the size of the Israeli security zone in the enclave by an additional 34 square km. The IDF now controls 64 per cent of the territory. This move was taken with the knowledge and apparent approval of the Board of Peace after it became evident that Hamas had violated its commitment and had failed to meet the timetable for its disarmament.
Israel decided to deploy the IDF along the “orange line” after talks, led by Egypt and Turkey over the last 6 months regarding Hamas demilitarisation, have broken down. According to assessments the Palestinian “technocratic government” continues to face significant challenges in establishing its rule and authority in Gaza.
According to the Israel’s Coordination for Government Activity in the Territories (COGAT), aid continues to flow into Gaza at a rate of 600 trucks a day. In addition to food and sanitation supplies, 440 tons of medical equipment entered Gaza last week.
Similar to the flotilla that was intercepted three weeks ago the latest interception is part of a broader effort to enforce the UN backed maritime control around Gaza.

Looking ahead: There are more flotilla vessels still at sea, of greatest concern are larger boats from two Turkish organisations, Mavi Marmara and IHH. IHH is a designated as a terrorist organisation so the IDF will be taking extra precautions given the troops might be met with resistance.

A regional consensus exists that serious reconstruction in Gaza cannot take place while Hamas remains an armed force with residual sovereignty. Gulf states and Saudi Arabia are unlikely to invest heavily in Gaza only for the same infrastructure to be destroyed again in a few years. That makes Hamas’s military dismantling not just an Israeli demand but a prerequisite for regional partners.
Whilst Israel and its international partners continue to explore how to implement the post-war framework, including demilitarisation, transitional technocratic governance, and an international stabilisation force, there is still no agreed mechanism for removing Hamas’s military power.
Israeli reports suggest Hamas is rebuilding its military capacity by producing improvised explosive devices, mortar shells and anti-tank rockets, gathering intelligence on IDF deployments and training inside Gaza despite the Israeli presence.

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