Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated April 22, 2025

IDF maintains pressure campaign against Hamas in Gaza

Situation update: According to the IDF they currently control roughly 40% of the Gaza Strip’s territory.

After maintaining a degree of ambiguity over the military campaign the IDF has revealed more details of its latest military campaign in Gaza over the last month.
The fighting is taking place in the north, south and central Gaza, focused on remaining hubs of Hamas’s power base. Regular situation assessment meetings are held with the IDF officials responsible for the hostages in order to prevent attacks in parts of Gaza where the hostages are being held.
Since the military operation was re-launched just over a month ago, the IDF have carried out around 1,300 attacks and claim that more than 400 terrorists have been killed, including military commanders and senior Hamas officials.
In the south, the IDF is determined to defeat the Rafah brigade (again). As such the ‘Morag Corridor’ – six km wide, ten km long and cutting off Rafah from the rest of the Gaza Strip – is designed to isolate Rafah and cut access to Khan Yunis. The IDF has identified and destroyed two major tunnels in this area, but it is unclear if more exist.
The IDF believes that its control of the Morag Corridor leaves the Rafah Brigade surrounded, though operatives have continued to exploit the tunnels in the Rafah sector to carry out attacks against IDF forces. According to military estimates, approximately 150 Hamas operatives remain in three neighbourhoods in Rafah.
Over the last few days the Israeli Air Force has struck over 200 military targets throughout the Gaza Strip. According to the IDF this has included, “terrorist cells, launch and sniper posts, weapons storage facilities, and structures used by terrorists for terrorist activity.”
In southern Gaza IDF troops, “dismantled terrorist infrastructure sites and located a weapons cache containing grenades, ammunition, and additional military equipment.”
The IDF also announced the targeting of another terrorist that participated in the October 7th massacre.

Buffer zone: Inside the Gaza periphery the IDF has now established a ‘buffer zone’ and built 15 new military outposts inside Gaza, from north to south Gaza.

These posts, consisting of high mounds of earth surrounded by barbed wire and built adjacent to Israel, are designed to prevent another October 7^th style attack on the communities on the Israeli side of the border.
During the course of the month, Hamas has largely avoided direct confrontations with IDF forces.
For the most part Hamas has decided to withdraw most of its estimated remaining 20,000 fighters – many of whom are considered untrained and recruited in the last year – and have them assimilated among the civilians in the designated safe zone.
As a result, Hamas fighters have reverted to guerilla tactics to attack IDF soldiers, by firing anti-tank rockets and sniper rifles, and by detonating improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and firing rockets.
IDF troops say they rarely see Hamas fighters, who are often able to disappear, presumably down an undiscovered tunnel shaft.

Bedouin Officer killed: Ghaleb Alnasasra a 35 year old Bedoiun tracker from Rahat was killed by an IED in the buffer zone in northern Gaza.

The incident began when fighters suddenly emerged from a tunnel and fired a rocket-propelled grenade at an unarmoured military vehicle. Three female combat soldiers were seriously wounded and were taken by helicopter to hospitals in Israel.
Twenty-eight minutes later, the terrorists detonated an IED, targeting trackers who had come to assist with the wounded soldiers’ evacuation.
The terrorist squad successfully escaped to the nearby town of Beit Hanoun.

Looking ahead / hostage talks: After Hamas rejected the most recent Israeli proposal, a new round of talks to discuss a hostage deal is expected to begin in Cairo in the next couple of days.

Reports suggest that Qatar and Egypt have a new proposal, calling for a truce for between five and seven years, the release of all 59 hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian terrorists, a declared end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Israel’s security cabinet is scheduled to meet this evening.
If the talks don’t progress, the IDF is making preparations for an even more comprehensive ground manoeuvre. This could include dividing the Strip in half and for the IDF to take over and hold more territory to increase further pressure on Hamas.

April 22, 2025

IDF publishes investigation

The IDF published its findings into the incident in which Red Crescent workers were killed.

The examination found no evidence to support claims of execution or that any of the deceased were bound before or after the shooting, adding that such claims are blood libels and false accusations against IDF soldiers.
According to the IDF, there were three shooting incidents on that day: In the first incident, troops fired at a vehicle identified as a Hamas vehicle, following which troops remained on high alert for further potential threats.
Approximately an hour later, troops opened fire on suspects emerging from a fire truck and ambulances very close to the area in which the troops were operating, after perceiving an immediate and tangible threat. Supporting surveillance had reported five vehicles approaching rapidly and stopping near the troops, with passengers quickly disembarking. The deputy battalion commander assessed the vehicles as employed by Hamas forces, who had arrived to assist the first vehicle’s passengers, and thus ordered troops to open fire. Fifteen Palestinians were killed, six of whom were identified in a retrospective examination as Hamas terrorists.
Due to poor night visibility, the deputy commander did not initially recognise the vehicles as ambulances. Only later, after approaching the vehicles and scanning them, was it discovered that these were indeed rescue teams.
About 15 minutes later, troops fired at a Palestinian UN vehicle due to operational errors in breach of regulations. At dawn, it was decided to gather and cover the bodies to prevent further harm and clear the vehicles from the route in preparation for civilian evacuation.
The IDF adds that while removing the bodies was reasonable under the circumstances, the decision to crush the vehicles was wrong. It adds that in general, there was no attempt to conceal the event, which was discussed with international organisations and the UN, including coordination for the removal of bodies.
The examination determined that the fire in the first two incidents resulted from an operational misunderstanding by the troops, who believed they faced a tangible threat from enemy forces. The third incident involved a breach of orders during a combat setting.
In its conclusion of the examination process, the examination identified several professional failures, breaches of orders, and a failure to fully report the incident. The Commanding Officer of the 14th Brigade will receive a reprimand, for his overall responsibility for the incident, including the procedure of combat and management of the scene afterward. The deputy commander of the Golani Reconnaissance Battalion – whom the IDF emphasised is a highly respected officer – will be dismissed from his position due to his responsibilities as the field commander in this incident and for providing an incomplete and inaccurate report during the debrief.

April 15, 2025

Israel proposes contours for a new hostage deal

What’s happened: According to media reports, Israel has presented its latest proposal to Egypt, which have in turn passed it on to Hamas.

The latest plan includes:
- A 45-day ceasefire, with the IDF halting their military campaign in the Gaza Strip and allowing the renewal of Humanitarian Aid.
- On the first day Hamas would release Edan Alexander – an IDF soldier with dual Israeli-American citizenship – as a special gesture to the US.
- On the second day of the ceasefire, Hamas would release five living hostages in exchange for 66 prisoners serving life sentences and 611 prisoners who were arrested in Gaza.
- Based on the proposal, at this point the IDF are expected to begin redeployment out of populated areas in the north and south of the Strip.
- On the third day, negotiations would begin to discuss the “day after,” the disarmament of Hamas, and a possible declaration of a permanent ceasefire.
- On the seventh day, Hamas would release four more living hostages in exchange for 54 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences as well as another 500 Gazans who were arrested after October 7^th.
- The IDF would then re-open the main north-south route, allowing Gazans to return once more to the northern Gaza Strip.
- On the tenth day, Hamas would provide information about all the remaining living hostages in exchange for information about the Palestinian detainees.
- On the 20th day, Hamas would release the remains of 16 dead hostages in exchange for 160 dead Palestinians.
- The proposal states that negotiations for a permanent ceasefire should be concluded within 45 days. After agreeing on a ceasefire, all the other hostages, living and dead, would be released.
There is also a provision for both sides to agree to extend the terms of a temporary ceasefire.
Israel is again insisting that Hamas refrain from holding their release ‘ceremonies.’

Context: The latest proposal is being considered amid continued IDF operations inside Gaza.

During this latest operation the IDF have remained deliberately ambiguous on precise details of their progress, primarily to deny Hamas knowledge of their manoeuvres.
Nevertheless, the IDF Spokesperson’s Office released some details. Over the weekend, the Israeli Air Force, “struck over 90 terror targets…throughout the Gaza Strip.” Among the targets were launch sites of rockets that were fired towards southern Israel on Saturday. Over the weekend, Hamas fired five rockets at Israel in separate incidents.
One IDF attack focused on a Hamas command and control centre set up inside the Al Ahli Hospital in northern Gaza. The IDF noted the “compound was used by Hamas terrorists to plan and execute terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops. Prior to the strike, steps were taken to mitigate harm to civilians or to the hospital compound, including issuing advanced warnings in the area of the terror infrastructure, the use of precise munitions, and aerial surveillance.”
One again the IDF emphasised that Hamas, “systematically violates international law while using civilian infrastructure, brutally exploiting the civilian population as a human shield for its terrorist activities. The IDF has repeatedly stated that military activity within medical facilities in Gaza must cease.”
IDF troops also continue to operate in the area of Rafah and the newly established Morag Corridor that cuts the contact between Rafah and Khan Yunis.
In northern Gaza, IDF troops dismantled terror infrastructure and tunnel shafts.
Over the last few days, the IDF confirmed, “11 terrorists who infiltrated Israeli territory and took part in the October 7^th massacre have been eliminated, including key operatives involved in the murder and abduction of Israeli civilians and soldiers.”
This past weekend Hamas released another propaganda video of Edan Alexander. This was the second proof that Alexander is alive.
Fifty nine hostages, of whom 24 are thought to be alive remain in Hamas captivity now for 557 days.
Israel is hoping that the military pressure, specifically retaking control of tactical corridors, will serve as a catalyst for Hamas to agree to a renewed hostage deal.
As part of the efforts to reach a new ceasefire, the key disagreements continue to be Israel’s reluctance to offer guarantees for ending the war. So far Hamas has shown no willingness to agree to disarm.
Whilst there are currently no fuel or food shortages, Gazans will soon face limitations on these items if the military campaign continues. This is also supposed to increase the pressure on Hamas from within its own civilian population. Israeli officials are continuing to closely monitor the storage and stockpiles of food, cooking gas and fuel.
When the supply of aid is resumed, Israel will be looking to implement a new delivery mechanism that will ensure that the Humanitarian Aid only reaches the civilian population and is not controlled by Hamas.

Looking ahead: Israel is waiting for a formal response from Hamas with the next few days considered critical.

If Israel senses that there is a basis for negotiations, an Israeli delegation is then expected to return for more proximity talks in Doha or Cairo.

April 8, 2025

Netanyahu meets Trump as US eyes Iran talks

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu met President Trump at the White House yesterday (7th April) in a hastily arranged meeting that reportedly focused on tariffs and Iran, with some attention also given to the war in Gaza and the hostages still held there by Hamas.

Trump announced that the US will be holding direct talks with Iran in an attempt to reach a new deal on the Iranian nuclear programme. Talks are due to begin this Saturday in Oman, where an American delegation led by Steve Witkoff will meet the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
This will be the first such high-level contact between the sides in ten years. Failure to reach an agreement would place Tehran “in great danger,” in Trump’s words.
Netanyahu had hoped to secure an American cancellation of tariffs imposed on Israel last week. This was not forthcoming, though President Trump did commend Israel for eliminating duties on American goods last week. Referring to Israeli efforts to eliminate any remaining barriers to US imports in Israel, Netanyahu said “I think Israel can serve as a model for many countries who ought to do the same.”

Context: The 2015 agreement between Iran and six leading states, known as the JCPOA, limiting Iran’s nuclear programme for a period of fifteen years was deeply opposed by Israel as well as hawkish element in domestic American politics and elsewhere. Disagreement over the JCPOA was the high point of tensions between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

In 2018, President Trump withdrew from the agreement, but the other countries who were part of it — the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China — did not.
It has been ten years since the last time the US and Iran engaged in direct talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, and the implied threat hovering over the talks of US-led military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities hasn’t changed. But at least three aspects of the threat and incentive structure are dramatically different in 2025 compared to 2015:
- Iran appears to have enriched significantly more uranium than was the case in 2015.
- Iran’s ability to defend itself from aerial attacks is greatly degraded as a result of the Israeli operation in 2024 which destroyed its air defences as well as its missile fuel production facility.
- Iran’s array of regional proxies threatening Israel and American interests in the region has been even more severely degraded than its air defence system. The Assad regime in Syria has fallen. Hezbollah in Lebanon has been almost entirely taken out of a commission since a rapid Israeli offensive last autumn. And Hamas in Gaza has been pinned down by the destructive war it launched on October 7, 2023.
An additional Iranian proxy, the Houthis in Yemen, have also experienced strikes from the US. Following the Trump-Netanyahu meeting US Secretary of Defense Hegseth told reporters “It’s been a bad three weeks for the Houthis, and it’s about to get worse.” He described the campaign as “devastating,” targeting underground facilities, weapons manufacturing bunkers, Houthi fighters, and air defence systems. Hegseth also criticised Iran for its continued support warning that “We have a lot more options and a lot more pressure to apply.”
Israel’s strategic posture vis-à-vis a negotiated process it is not a direct party to is also significantly different from what it was in 2015. On the one hand, it is much less threatened by Iranian deterrent assets on its borders. On the other, if it opposes whatever deal the Trump administration reaches with the Iranians, it has no one in domestic American politics with whom it can make a common cause over such opposition.
Despite the less festive tone (in comparison to the previous Netanyahu Oval Office visit earlier this year) and the obvious areas of disagreement, both Israel and American officials were keen to emphasise the ideological and personal alignment of the two countries’ leaders.

Looking Ahead: As negotiations get underway, the positions staked out by the US and Iran on the most contentious issues are very far apart. Israel, which is not a party to the talks, insists on a “Libya model,” alluding to the 2003 agreement which saw Libya dismantle entirely its nascent nuclear facilities and ship them out of the country.

The announcement of direct US-Iran talks shuts the window, for now, on an Israeli military offensive against Iranian nuclear assets. Israel cannot launch an attack while the US is negotiating with Iran without angering the American administration. And if talks succeed in reaching an agreement, Israel cannot realistically launch an attack either. If talks fail, it will be up to the US to carry out its threats against the Iranians, or find itself in a weaker position in any future diplomatic confrontation. Referencing just such a threat, President Trump said, “I think everybody agrees that doing a deal would be preferable to doing the obvious.”
Both the Prime Minister and the President addressed the question of Turkey’s role in Syria in particularly delicate terms. The implication of both men’s comments was that the US will seek to mediate discreet understandings between Turkey and Israel regarding each side’s most vital interests in post-Assad Syria. Israel is very concerned about a jihadist government on its doorstep backed by Turkey, a hostile regional power that is also a member of NATO.
President Trump is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia next month, and it is widely speculated that he would like a new ceasefire in Gaza in place in time for that visit, and that he is particularly keen to see the last remaining living hostage with US citizenship, Edan Alexander, among those released.

April 8, 2025

New Egyptian ceasefire proposal

Yesterday (7th April), the Egyptian government put forward a proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal.

According to this plan, Hamas would release eight living hostages and the bodies of eight dead hostages in exchange for a much larger number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel. The ceasefire would last 40 to 70 days.
The Egyptian plan is a compromise between the Hamas proposal to release five living hostages and the Israeli ceasefire proposal, which would have seen eleven hostages released.
All three proposals are essentially extensions of the first stage of the ceasefire agreed to in January, and all three leave open the more contentious issues of the second stage, which would see the release of all remaining hostages, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and an elusive agreement on the future governance of the territory.

April 7, 2025

IDF investigates Rafah incident involving ambulance convoy

The IDF is continuing to investigate an incident from March 23^rd, in which 14 people, among them ambulance and aid workers, were killed in the Rafah area.

The incident began at 4 am, when IDF soldiers planning an ambush engaged a vehicle of Hamas fighters. In an exchange of fire one Hamas operative was eliminated and two were captured. The vehicle remained at the side of the road.
At 6 am, a convoy of ambulances, driving on the same road, made an unscheduled stop at the site.
Over the weekend, the New York Times, released footage found on a device filmed by one of the medics. The footage appears to contradict the original IDF account that the vehicles were travelling with their lights off.
According to the IDF, drone operators warned the soldiers that the convoy was behaving suspiciously. When the convoy began to approach, the troops opened fire. The troops were further surprised when members of the convoy jumped out of the ambulances, and ran towards the Hamas vehicle which was at the side of the road.
Among the 14 killed, most appear to be first responders or aid workers. According to the IDF, 6 were identified as Hamas terrorists.
According to the IDF inquiry, contrary to allegations, the paramedics had neither been bound nor executed. The troops had fired from an ambush site, and not from close-range.
Following the incident it was the deputy battalion commander who gathered the bodies, covered them with a tarp, marked the site of the incident, and then called on UN representatives to come to the site.

April 7, 2025

Rockets fired from Gaza marking 18-month anniversary of October 7 Hamas massacre

What’s happened: Ten rockets were fired from Gaza on Sunday night towards the cities of Ashkelon and Ashdod.

The Iron Dome anti-missile defence system intercepted 5 of the rockets. Four landed in open areas while one hit a car in Ashkelon, and damaged the surroundings – including an apartment – with shrapnel. Interceptor missile fragments landed in several other locations. Around ten people suffered light injuries.
This rocket barrage was the largest in the past eight months.
In response, the IDF attacked the area from where the rockets were fired in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, and Gaza City’s Sajaiya neighbourhood. According to Palestinian reports, two people were killed in an IDF strike on a tent camp in Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis.
As a consequence of the rocket fire, for the first time, the IDF issued an evacuation of the Deir al-Balah area.

Context: With fighting in Gaza continuing, the IDF over the weekend expanded the security buffer zone in both the north and south of the Strip.

The aerial campaign has also continued, with over 130 terror infrastructures sites targeted.
The military campaign is aimed at pressuring Hamas to return to the hostage talks, but this has not yet born fruit.
In the absence of a deal, the IDF is preparing to expand their operation, but also recognise the need to renew the flow of Humanitarian Aid into the Gaza Strip.
No aid has entered for the past five weeks, and at some point Israel will have no choice but to renew the supply of food, fuel and medicine.
During the first stage of the hostage deal, the number of aid trucks entering Gaza rose from 150-200 daily during the war to 600 during the ceasefire. However Hamas commandeered most of these goods.
In the IDF assessment, there isn’t any hunger right now, but in the next month and a half food in the warehouses will run out.
IDF officials have been holding situation assessment meetings on a daily basis, given the sensitivity of the issue.
The fuel into Gaza is harder to track. It is thought Hamas has stockpiled large quantities, primarily for lengthy stays in the tunnel, and has sold some of it to pay salaries to its fighters.
The IDF estimates that roughly 200,000 Gazans have once again left their homes on IDF orders after Rafah was surrounded last week and the corridor between Khan Yunis and Rafah was seized.

Looking ahead: Israeli officials will continue to monitor the humanitarian situation in Gaza on a daily basis.

A pilot programme is expected to be trialled in Rafah, where the IDF itself will distribute food and medicine to local residents, as an alternative to Hamas.
Israel hopes to enlist international aid organisations to distribute food at distribution centres that will be controlled by the IDF.

April 4, 2025

IDF expand their operation in Gaza

IDF are continuing their offensive activity, expanding the ground operation in both northern and southern Gaza.

On Friday morning the IDF Spokesperson’s Office confirmed they were expanding their control in the Shejaiya area in northern Gaza. Among the targets was a Hamas “command and control centre.”
On Thursday, they targeted another command and control centre, “that also served as a central meeting point” in the Jabalya neighbourhood (also in northern Gaza).
The IDF announced than in the strike in Jabalya, four known Hamas terrorists were eliminated including one who had “ infiltrated into Israel and participated in the murderous massacre on October 7th,” alongside others responsible for firing rockets.
The IDF once again noted, “Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate harm to civilians including the use of aerial surveillance and additional intelligence.”

Context: Israeli leaders have emphasised that the objective of the campaign in Gaza is to exert more pressure on Hamas, to bring about a new deal to return the remaining hostages.

Defence Minister Katz explained, “The purpose of the operation is to advance the hostages’ release. We are exerting pressure to prompt Hamas to accept the Americans’ proposal – the release of 11 living hostages and another 16 deceased. And, in the course of the ceasefire, we will set in motion a process of further dialogue. At the moment, we are acting in stages to ratchet up the pressure.”
As part of the pressure campaign the IDF intends to divide the Gaza Strip into four separate enclaves.
In the south the IDF are expanding control of the area in-between the cities of Rafah and Khan Yunis, now referred to as the “Morag Corridor.”
This is considered an operational route for both defensive and offensive manoeuvring, that breaks the connection, both overground and underground between the reconstituted Hamas battalions in Khan Yunis and Rafah.
In the north the operation in Bet Lahiya is designed to form a northern buffer zone, cutting of Gaza City from the more northern districts.
Earlier this week, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Zamir said, “The only thing that can stop us from ongoing advancement is the release of our hostages. Their release will allow our troops to return to the opening positions and for further negotiations.”
The new IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin announced yesterday that, “Since the resumption of operations in the Gaza Strip, we have struck more than 600 terrorist targets… eliminated more than 250 terrorists, including twelve senior members of the Hamas .. all terrorists, all of whom took part in the October 7th massacre.”
The latest assessment is that the IDF currently holds roughly 30 per cent of territory inside the Gaza Strip.
There is also cautious optimism over the resumption of anti-Hamas protests being held by Gazan civilians this week.
Relating to Lebanon, Defrin said, “we continue to act in accordance with the ceasefire and understandings with Lebanon. We hold the Lebanese state responsible for what happens within its territory and will continue to enforce security measures and protect the residents of northern Israel.”

Looking ahead: The IDF has plans for an even more expansive ground operation in Gaza.

The hope that the credibility of the threat will induce Hamas to return to hostage negotiations.

April 2, 2025

IDF extends pressure on Hamas

What’s happened: This morning Defence Minister Katz declared that the operation in Gaza “is expanding to crush and clear the area from terrorists and terrorist infrastructure and to seize broad swaths of territory that will be added to the State of Israel’s security zones. I call on the residents of Gaza to act now to remove Hamas and to return all the hostages.”

The IDF has expanded its air campaign as well as its ground manoeuvres.
Overnight the IDF targeted Hamas infrastructure in several locations across the Gaza Strip using air strikes and artillery fire.
Prior to the attacks Israel has continued to issue evacuation orders to Gaza residents in the north and south of the Strip.
According to Palestinian reports, following the air strikes, IDF ground forces began to operate on a broad scale in Rafah. Al Jazeera reported that 17 people were killed in the Israeli attacks.
For a second consecutive day, Hamas launched a rocket from northern Gaza towards Sderot. The rocket crossed into Israeli airspace and was intercepted.

Context: Almost 18 months since October 7th, Israel once more finds itself intensifying the attacks on Hamas in Gaza, and also operating against terror infrastructure in Lebanon.

Despite extensive fighting, there remain concerns that Hamas still possesses some offensive capabilities.
In Gaza the current approach of taking control of more territory is aimed at weakening Hamas’s public standing. This, alongside the halting of aid, is designed to create “decisive pressure” on Hamas and aims to oblige it to move more quickly towards a hostage deal.
For example, in southern Gaza, the IDF is now controlling a corridor between the cities of Khan Yunis and Rafah. The purpose of the operation is to hold territory that is currently mostly empty of Palestinian residents, following recent IDF instructions for Gazans living in the area to leave their homes.
The military operation has the support of the security echelon as a tactic to induce Hamas to make concessions in the hostage negotiations.
However the Hostage Families Forum issued a strong condemnation of Defence Minister Katz’s statement saying, “Instead of getting the hostages out in an agreement and ending the war, the Israeli government is sending more troops into Gaza to fight in the same places they have fought in time and time again.” The Forum added, “Responsibility for the release of the 59 hostages from Hamas captivity resides with the Israeli government. Our pained sense is that that mission has been relegated to the bottom of the set of priorities and has become a secondary mission only.”
Another part of the ground offensive is a component of a military plan to expand the perimeter. Israel is looking to maintain at least part of the territory it has taken that is immediately adjacent to the border. This security zone would then serve as buffer to prevent future attacks on Israeli border communities.
According to reports Israel is now demanding that Hamas accept and implement a deal that includes:
- The release of Edan Alexander, (the captured IDF soldier with dual Israeli – US citizenship).
- The release of 10 more living hostages, followed by a 40-day ceasefire and a resumption of aid into the Strip.
- On the fifth day of the ceasefire, Hamas would be obliged to provide information about all of the hostages it still holds.
- On the tenth day it would be required to release the remains of 16 deceased hostages.
- As part of the ceasefire, Israel will commit to discussing ending the war, whilst insisting that Hamas leaders go into exile and the Gaza Strip is fully demilitarised.

Looking ahead: The IDF is expected to soon release the findings from its latest internal inquiry that refers to the Nova festival massacre, and present it to families of people murdered at the festival.

The IDF could still expand its ground manoeuvres and take more territory inside Gaza as part of the pressure campaign to reach another hostage deal.
The Pentagon has announced it is sending a second aircraft carrier to the region.
Israel’s National Security Council warned that global terrorist organisations backed by Iran plan to target Jews and Israelis traveling during Passover.

March 31, 2025

Israel to increase military pressure on Hamas to induce negotiations

What’s happened: Israel’s security cabinet convened on Saturday night to discuss the military campaign and efforts to negotiate the release of the remaining hostages.

Speaking to the wider cabinet last night, Prime Minister Netanyahu argued that, “the military pressure (on Hamas) is working. It is working because it is simultaneous: On the one hand, it is pounding Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and on the other it is creating the conditions for releasing our hostages. This is exactly what we are doing.”
He confirmed the decision from Saturday night, “to increase the pressure, which was already increased, in order to further pound Hamas and create the optimal conditions for releasing our hostages.”
Netanyahu also confirmed that in parallel to military operations, Israel is also conducting negotiations, “under fire” which is why they are proving to “effective”. “Suddenly we see that there are cracks” within Hamas.
Military action continued in the Gaza Strip over the weekend, with ground operations focusing on the southern town of Rafah.
Air strikes were carried out at Hamas targets across the Strip, including a cell attempting to launch mortars at Israel.
The US has continued to launch air strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen following further missile attacks on Israel over the weekend. The Houthis have attempted to attack Israel at least eight times since 18^th March, after the IDF resumed significant military operations in the Gaza Strip. All missiles have been intercepted outside of Israel’s borders without causing significant damage or injuries.
The former hostage Yarden Bibas, whose wife and two sons were murdered while in captivity, was interviewed by CBS’s “60 Minutes.” Bibas said, “I’m here because of Trump. I’m here only because of him. I think he’s the only one who can stop this war again. He has to convince Netanyahu, convince Hamas. I think he can do it.”

Context: The current posture of the Israeli government appears to support increasing the military pressure on Hamas to induce them to return to the hostage negotiations.

It seems there is a consensus among the political and military leadership that military pressure is the correct approach.
However, the opposition has continued to attack the government. In the latest example, Yesh Atid MK Merav Ben-Ari spoke to Kan Radio this morning questioning the military pressure approach. “You’ll increase the military pressure, and then what? That will kill the hostages. You tried that for a year and a half already. We need to stop the war and to get the hostages back…we’re talking about a jihadist organisation. It’s clear to me that another day will come when it will attack the State of Israel, and we’ll be able to attack them, and we’ll be able to destroy that organisation – and that organisation needs to be destroyed. But first get the hostages back.”
Israel is insisting on the ‘Witkoff proposal,’ whereby all of the hostages, the living and the dead, are to be released in two installments – the first group at the beginning of the process, and the remainder at the end.
Moreover, according to reports, Israel is seemingly willing to begin to discuss ending the war during the 50 day interval between the first and second releases
However, substantial gaps remain between the sides. These include:
- The conditions under which to begin talks about the second stage and ending the war.
- The new ratio of the number of terrorists, (and whom) that are to be released in exchange for hostages. So far Hamas’s excessive demands are a non-starter.
- The extent of the IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
- What international mechanisms can be created to guarantee the end the war.
Israel is also thought to be considering a renewal of the delivery of aid into Gaza, which Hamas has demanded. However, Israel is looking to take over the delivery process to ensure supplies reach the civilians of Gaza, and not Hamas.
Israel’s position of discussing an end to the war following a hostage release is a counter-proposal to Hamas reportedly being open to releasing five hostages in exchange for a 50-day pause in fighting (although it is unclear if their offer implies all five are alive).
Fifty nine hostages have been held captive in Gaza for 542 days, of whom 24 are thought to be alive.
There is hope that concerted US diplomatic pressure on Hamas, coupled with the free hand they are giving Israel militarily (unlike the Biden administration), could induce Hamas to accept Witkoff’s parameters.
The security cabinet also discussed the authenticity of the anti-Hamas protests inside Gaza, amid suggestions they could be staged by Hamas to deliberately present a false picture. However, according to Hamas sources, six Palestinians were executed this past weekend. There have been no demonstrations since Friday.
The government has also announced a new head of the Shin Bet security service: Vice Admiral (retd) Eli Sharvit. He served in the IDF for 36 years, five of which as the commander of the Israel Navy, retiring in 2021.
Last week, the High Court of Justice allowed Netanyahu to interview candidates to succeed Ronen Bar, despite the opposition from the attorney general.

Looking ahead: Hamas is under pressure to secure a ceasefire and resumption of aid in the context of the Eid al-Fitr holiday and the end of Ramadan.

Israel is keen to see a new deal ahead of Passover that begins in just under 2 weeks.
Despite the announcement of Sharvit’s appointment, the High Court is scheduled to hear petitions against Bar’s removal on April 8^th.
If Sharvit is confirmed as the next head of Shin Bet, he will be the second director to appointed from outside the organisation. Ami Ayalon, was also a former commander of the Navy. He was appointed director following the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin in 1995.

LATEST

Key background

IDF maintains pressure campaign against Hamas in Gaza

IDF publishes investigation

Israel proposes contours for a new hostage deal

Netanyahu meets Trump as US eyes Iran talks

New Egyptian ceasefire proposal

IDF investigates Rafah incident involving ambulance convoy

Rockets fired from Gaza marking 18-month anniversary of October 7 Hamas massacre

IDF expand their operation in Gaza

IDF extends pressure on Hamas

Israel to increase military pressure on Hamas to induce negotiations

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