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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.
Egyptian flag on Egypt-Gaza Border
Egyptian soldiers look towards the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt on May 21, 2009. Photo By Abed Rahim Khatib / Flash90

Updated April 8, 2025

New Egyptian ceasefire proposal

Yesterday (7th April), the Egyptian government put forward a proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal.

  • According to this plan, Hamas would release eight living hostages and the bodies of eight dead hostages in exchange for a much larger number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel. The ceasefire would last 40 to 70 days.
  • The Egyptian plan is a compromise between the Hamas proposal to release five living hostages and the Israeli ceasefire proposal, which would have seen eleven hostages released.
  • All three proposals are essentially extensions of the first stage of the ceasefire agreed to in January, and all three leave open the more contentious issues of the second stage, which would see the release of all remaining hostages, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and an elusive agreement on the future governance of the territory.

April 7, 2025

IDF investigates Rafah incident involving ambulance convoy

The IDF is continuing to investigate an incident from March 23rd, in which 14 people, among them ambulance and aid workers, were killed in the Rafah area. 

  • The incident began at 4 am, when IDF soldiers planning an ambush engaged a vehicle of Hamas fighters. In an exchange of fire one Hamas operative was eliminated and two were captured. The vehicle remained at the side of the road.
  • At 6 am, a convoy of ambulances, driving on the same road, made an unscheduled stop at the site. 
  • Over the weekend, the New York Times, released footage found on a device filmed by one of the medics. The footage appears to contradict the original IDF account that the vehicles were travelling with their lights off. 
  • According to the IDF, drone operators warned the soldiers that the convoy was behaving suspiciously. When the convoy began to approach, the troops opened fire. The troops were further surprised when members of the convoy jumped out of the ambulances, and ran towards the Hamas vehicle which was at the side of the road.
  • Among the 14 killed, most appear to be first responders or aid workers. According to the IDF, 6 were identified as Hamas terrorists. 
  • According to the IDF inquiry, contrary to allegations, the paramedics had neither been bound nor executed. The troops had fired from an ambush site, and not from close-range.
  • Following the incident it was the deputy battalion commander who gathered the bodies, covered them with a tarp, marked the site of the incident, and then called on UN representatives to come to the site. 

April 7, 2025

Rockets fired from Gaza marking 18-month anniversary of October 7 Hamas massacre

Israeli security and rescue forces at the scene where a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip by Hamas terrorists hit the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon.
Israeli security and rescue forces at the scene where a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip by Hamas terrorists hit the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon, April 6, 2025. Photo by Edi Israel/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** פגיעה נפילה אשקלון עזה רחבות ברזל מכונית חרבות ברזל

What’s happened: Ten rockets were fired from Gaza on Sunday night towards the cities of Ashkelon and Ashdod.

  • The Iron Dome anti-missile defence system intercepted 5 of the rockets. Four landed in open areas while one hit a car in Ashkelon, and damaged the surroundings – including an apartment – with shrapnel. Interceptor missile fragments landed in several other locations. Around ten people suffered light injuries.  
  • This rocket barrage was the largest in the past eight months.
  • In response, the IDF attacked the area from where the rockets were fired in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, and Gaza City’s Sajaiya neighbourhood. According to Palestinian reports, two people were killed in an IDF strike on a tent camp in Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis. 
  • As a consequence of the rocket fire, for the first time, the IDF issued an evacuation of the Deir al-Balah area. 

Context: With fighting in Gaza continuing, the IDF over the weekend expanded the security buffer zone in both the north and south of the Strip.

  • The aerial campaign has also continued, with over 130 terror infrastructures sites targeted.
  • The military campaign is aimed at pressuring Hamas to return to the hostage talks, but this has not yet born fruit.
  • In the absence of a deal, the IDF is preparing to expand their operation, but also recognise the need to renew the flow of into the Gaza Strip. 
  • No aid has entered for the past five weeks, and at some point Israel will have no choice but to renew the supply of food, fuel and medicine.
  • During the first stage of the hostage deal, the number of aid trucks entering Gaza rose from 150-200 daily during the war to 600 during the ceasefire. However Hamas commandeered most of these goods.
  • In the IDF assessment, there isn’t any hunger right now, but in the next month and a half food in the warehouses will run out. 
  • IDF officials have been holding situation assessment meetings on a daily basis, given the sensitivity of the issue. 
  • The fuel into Gaza is harder to track. It is thought Hamas has stockpiled large quantities, primarily for lengthy stays in the tunnel, and has sold some of it to pay salaries to its fighters.
  • The IDF estimates that roughly 200,000 Gazans have once again left their homes on IDF orders after Rafah was surrounded last week and the corridor between Khan Yunis and Rafah was seized.

Looking ahead: Israeli officials will continue to monitor the humanitarian situation in Gaza on a daily basis.     

  • A pilot programme is expected to be trialled in Rafah, where the IDF itself will distribute food and medicine to local residents, as an alternative to Hamas.
  • Israel hopes to enlist international aid organisations to distribute food at distribution centres that will be controlled by the IDF.  

April 4, 2025

IDF expand their operation in Gaza

IDF troops, led by the Southern Command, have been operating throughout the Gaza Strip
IDF troops, led by the Southern Command, have been operating throughout the Gaza Strip, Photo credit: Photo credit: IDF Spokeperson’s Office

IDF are continuing their offensive activity, expanding the ground operation in both northern and southern Gaza.

  • On Friday morning the IDF Spokesperson’s Office confirmed they were expanding their control in the Shejaiya  area in northern Gaza. Among the targets was a Hamas “command and control centre.”
  • On Thursday, they targeted another command and control centre, “that also served as a central meeting point” in the Jabalya neighbourhood (also in northern Gaza).
  • The IDF announced than in the strike in Jabalya, four known Hamas terrorists were eliminated including one who had “ infiltrated into Israel and participated in the murderous massacre on October 7th,” alongside others responsible for firing rockets.
  • The IDF once again noted, “Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate harm to civilians including the use of aerial surveillance and additional intelligence.”

Context: Israeli leaders have emphasised that the objective of the campaign in Gaza is to exert more pressure on Hamas, to bring about a new deal to return the remaining hostages.

  • Defence Minister Katz explained, “The purpose of the operation is to advance the hostages’ release. We are exerting pressure to prompt Hamas to accept the Americans’ proposal – the release of 11 living hostages and another 16 deceased. And, in the course of the ceasefire, we will set in motion a process of further dialogue. At the moment, we are acting in stages to ratchet up the pressure.”
  • As part of the pressure campaign the IDF intends to divide the Gaza Strip into four separate enclaves.
  • In the south the IDF are expanding control of the area in-between the cities of Rafah and Khan Yunis, now referred to as the “Morag Corridor.”
  • This is considered an operational route for both defensive and offensive manoeuvring, that breaks the connection, both overground and underground between the reconstituted Hamas battalions in Khan Yunis and Rafah.
  • In the north the operation in Bet Lahiya is designed to form a northern buffer zone, cutting of Gaza City from the more northern districts.
  • Earlier this week, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Zamir said,  “The only thing that can stop us from ongoing advancement is the release of our hostages. Their release will allow our troops to return to the opening positions and for further negotiations.”
  • The new IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin announced yesterday that, “Since the resumption of operations in the Gaza Strip, we have struck more than 600 terrorist targets… eliminated more than 250 terrorists, including twelve senior members of the Hamas .. all terrorists, all of whom took part in the October 7th massacre.”
  • The latest assessment is that the IDF currently holds roughly 30 per cent of territory inside the Gaza Strip.
  • There is also cautious optimism over the resumption of anti-Hamas protests being held by Gazan civilians this week.  
  • Relating to Lebanon, Defrin said, “we continue to act in accordance with the ceasefire and understandings with Lebanon. We hold the Lebanese state responsible for what happens within its territory and will continue to enforce security measures and protect the residents of northern Israel.”

Looking ahead: The IDF has plans for an even more expansive ground operation in Gaza.

  • The hope that the credibility of the threat will induce Hamas to return to hostage negotiations.

April 2, 2025

IDF extends pressure on Hamas

IDF troops operate against terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip in order to protect the citizens of the State of Israel.
IDF troops operate against terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip in order to protect the citizens of the State of Israel. Photo credit: IDF Spokeperson’s Office

What’s happened: This morning Defence Minister Katz declared that the operation in Gaza “is expanding to crush and clear the area from terrorists and terrorist infrastructure and to seize broad swaths of territory that will be added to the State of Israel’s security zones. I call on the residents of Gaza to act now to remove Hamas and to return all the hostages.”

  • The IDF has expanded its air campaign as well as its ground manoeuvres.
  • Overnight the IDF targeted Hamas infrastructure in several locations across the Gaza Strip using air strikes and artillery fire.
  • Prior to the attacks Israel has continued to issue evacuation orders to Gaza residents in the north and south of the Strip.    
  • According to Palestinian reports, following the air strikes, IDF ground forces began to operate on a broad scale in Rafah. Al Jazeera reported that 17 people were killed in the Israeli attacks.
  • For a second consecutive day, Hamas launched a rocket from northern Gaza towards Sderot. The rocket crossed into Israeli airspace and was intercepted.

Context: Almost 18 months since October 7th, Israel once more finds itself intensifying the attacks on Hamas in Gaza, and also operating against terror infrastructure in Lebanon.

  • Despite extensive fighting, there remain concerns that Hamas still possesses some offensive capabilities.
  • In Gaza the current approach of taking control of more territory is aimed at weakening Hamas’s public standing. This, alongside the halting of aid, is designed to create “decisive pressure” on Hamas and aims to oblige it to move more quickly towards a hostage deal.
  • For example, in southern Gaza, the IDF is now controlling a corridor between the cities of Khan Yunis and Rafah. The purpose of the operation is to hold territory that is currently mostly empty of Palestinian residents, following recent IDF instructions for Gazans living in the area to leave their homes.
  • The military operation has the support of the security echelon as a tactic to induce Hamas to make concessions in the hostage negotiations.  
  • However the Hostage Families Forum issued a strong condemnation of Defence Minister Katz’s statement saying, “Instead of getting the hostages out in an agreement and ending the war, the Israeli government is sending more troops into Gaza to fight in the same places they have fought in time and time again.” The Forum added, “Responsibility for the release of the 59 hostages from Hamas captivity resides with the Israeli government. Our pained sense is that that mission has been relegated to the bottom of the set of priorities and has become a secondary mission only.”
  • Another part of the ground offensive is a component of a military plan to expand the perimeter. Israel is looking to maintain at least part of the territory it has taken that is immediately adjacent to the border. This security zone would then serve as buffer to prevent future attacks on Israeli border communities.
  • According to reports Israel is now demanding that Hamas accept and implement a deal that includes:
    • The release of Edan Alexander, (the captured IDF soldier with dual Israeli – US citizenship).
    • The release of 10 more living hostages, followed by a 40-day ceasefire and a resumption of aid into the Strip.
    • On the fifth day of the ceasefire, Hamas would be obliged to provide information about all of the hostages it still holds.
    • On the tenth day it would be required to release the remains of 16 deceased hostages.
    • As part of the ceasefire, Israel will commit to discussing ending the war, whilst insisting that Hamas leaders go into exile and the Gaza Strip is fully demilitarised.

Looking ahead: The IDF is expected to soon release the findings from its latest internal inquiry that refers to the Nova festival massacre, and present it to families of people murdered at the festival.

  • The IDF could still expand its ground manoeuvres and take more territory inside Gaza as part of the pressure campaign to reach another hostage deal.
  • The Pentagon has announced it is sending a second aircraft carrier to the region.
  • Israel’s National Security Council warned that global terrorist organisations backed by Iran plan to target Jews and Israelis traveling during Passover.

March 31, 2025

Israel to increase military pressure on Hamas to induce negotiations

Israeli security cabinet meeting
Israeli security cabinet meeting, 30th March 2025, Photo credit: Israel Prime Minister’s Office

What’s happened: Israel’s security cabinet convened on Saturday night to discuss the military campaign and efforts to negotiate the release of the remaining hostages.

  • Speaking to the wider cabinet last night, Prime Minister Netanyahu argued that, “the military pressure (on Hamas) is working. It is working because it is simultaneous: On the one hand, it is pounding Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and on the other it is creating the conditions for releasing our hostages. This is exactly what we are doing.”
  • He confirmed the decision from Saturday night, “to increase the pressure, which was already increased, in order to further pound Hamas and create the optimal conditions for releasing our hostages.”
  • Netanyahu also confirmed that in parallel to military operations, Israel is also conducting negotiations, “under fire” which is why they are proving to “effective”. “Suddenly we see that there are cracks” within Hamas.  
  • Military action continued in the Gaza Strip over the weekend, with ground operations focusing on the southern town of Rafah.
  • Air strikes were carried out at Hamas targets across the Strip, including a cell attempting to launch mortars at Israel.
  • The US has continued to launch air strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen following further missile attacks on Israel over the weekend. The Houthis have attempted to attack Israel at least eight times since 18th March, after the IDF resumed significant military operations in the Gaza Strip. All missiles have been intercepted outside of Israel’s borders without causing significant damage or injuries.
  • The former hostage Yarden Bibas, whose wife and two sons were murdered while in captivity, was interviewed by CBS’s “60 Minutes.” Bibas said, “I’m here because of Trump. I’m here only because of him. I think he’s the only one who can stop this war again. He has to convince Netanyahu, convince Hamas. I think he can do it.”

Context: The current posture of the Israeli government appears to support increasing the military pressure on Hamas to induce them to return to the hostage negotiations.

  • It seems there is a consensus among the political and military leadership that military pressure is the correct approach.        
  • However, the opposition has continued to attack the government. In the latest example, Yesh Atid MK Merav Ben-Ari spoke to Kan Radio this morning questioning the military pressure approach. “You’ll increase the military pressure, and then what? That will kill the hostages. You tried that for a year and a half already. We need to stop the war and to get the hostages back…we’re talking about a jihadist organisation. It’s clear to me that another day will come when it will attack the State of Israel, and we’ll be able to attack them, and we’ll be able to destroy that organisation – and that organisation needs to be destroyed. But first get the hostages back.”        
  • Israel is insisting on the ‘Witkoff proposal,’ whereby all of the hostages, the living and the dead, are to be released in two installments – the first group at the beginning of the process, and the remainder at the end.
  • Moreover, according to reports, Israel is seemingly willing to begin to discuss ending the war during the 50 day interval between the first and second releases
  • However, substantial gaps remain between the sides. These include:
    • The conditions under which to begin talks about the second stage and ending the war.
    • The new ratio of the number of terrorists, (and whom) that are to be released in exchange for hostages. So far Hamas’s excessive demands are a non-starter.  
    • The extent of the IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
    • What international mechanisms can be created to guarantee the end the war.
  • Israel is also thought to be considering a renewal of the delivery of aid into Gaza, which Hamas has demanded. However, Israel is looking to take over the delivery process to ensure supplies reach the civilians of Gaza, and not Hamas.
  • Israel’s position of discussing an end to the war following a hostage release is a counter-proposal to Hamas reportedly being open to releasing five hostages in exchange for a 50-day pause in fighting (although it is unclear if their offer implies all five are alive).
  • Fifty nine hostages have been held captive in Gaza for 542 days, of whom 24 are thought to be alive.  
  • There is hope that concerted US diplomatic pressure on Hamas, coupled with the free hand they are giving Israel militarily (unlike the Biden administration), could induce Hamas to accept Witkoff’s parameters.    
  • The security cabinet also discussed the authenticity of the anti-Hamas protests inside Gaza, amid suggestions they could be staged by Hamas to deliberately present a false picture. However, according to Hamas sources, six Palestinians were executed this past weekend. There have been no demonstrations since Friday.  
  • The government has also announced a new head of the Shin Bet security service: Vice Admiral (retd) Eli Sharvit.  He served in the IDF for 36 years, five of which as the commander of the Israel Navy, retiring in 2021.
  • Last week, the High Court of Justice allowed Netanyahu to interview candidates to succeed Ronen Bar, despite the opposition from the attorney general.


Looking ahead: Hamas is under pressure to secure a ceasefire and resumption of aid in the context of the Eid al-Fitr holiday and the end of Ramadan.

  • Israel is keen to see a new deal ahead of Passover that begins in just under 2 weeks.
  • Despite the announcement of Sharvit’s appointment, the High Court is scheduled to hear petitions against Bar’s removal on April 8th.
  • If Sharvit is confirmed as the next head of Shin Bet, he will be the second director to appointed from outside the organisation.  Ami Ayalon, was also a former commander of the Navy. He was appointed director following the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin in 1995.  

March 27, 2025

Second day of anti-Hamas protests

Palestinians take part in an anti-Hamas protest, calling to end the war with Israel
Palestinians take part in an anti-Hamas protest, calling to end the war with Israel, in Beit Lahia, in the northern Gaza Strip, March 26, 2025. Photo by Flash90 *** Local Caption *** בניין חרבות ברזל עזה פלסטינאים הפגנה הפגנות נגד חמאס סיום לחימה צעדה אזרחים

What’s happened: For a second consecutive day, thousands of Palestinians across different parts of Gaza protested against Hamas. 

  • In Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip there were demonstrations for the second consecutive day. The protesters chanted: “Hamas out. Hamas is terrorist.”   
  • In the Sajaiya neighbourhood of Gaza City, (considered a Hamas stronghold) area, hundreds of people, filled the streets and chanted: “For the sake of God—Hamas out,” 
  • Elsewhere, placards that were held up by the demonstrators read: “Hamas doesn’t represent us,” and “Stop the war.”
  • The Israel Hayom newspaper quoted one Gazan saying, “The fear of Hamas has been broken. The residents of Gaza understand that Hamas’s ongoing rule means ongoing suffering in the Strip.”
  • Yesterday, Defence Minister Katz posted a video with Arabic subtitles in which he addressed the residents of Gaza saying, “Learn from the residents of Beit Lahiya, demand Hamas’s removal from Gaza and the immediate release of all the Israeli hostages, that is the only way to stop the war.”
  • Katz added, “Residents of Gaza, soon the IDF will operate powerfully in additional areas in Gaza and you will be required to evacuate the combat zones for the sake of your own protection. The plans are ready and have been approved. Hamas is endangering your lives and will make you lose your homes and increasingly more territory, which will be added to the Israeli defensive array.”
  • Also yesterday rockets were fired out of Gaza in two separate incidents. In the first, a rocket landed in an orchard, just 100m away from a kindergarten full of children. Later in the day another rocket was intercepted in the Beersheva area. 
  • Meanwhile, the IDF have continued their air campaign, which saw Hamas spokesperson Abdel-Latif Al-Qanoua eliminated, according to the IDF.  
  • Speaking in the Knesset plenum yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the breakdown of hostage deal negotiations and about the next stages of the war. Netanyahu said, “The longer Hamas persists with its refusal to release our hostages, the more powerful the steamroller we use will be. That includes seizing territory and other things that I won’t go into detail about here.” 
  • He added, “More and more Gazans understand that Hamas is visiting disaster upon them. That shows that our policy is working. We are determined to achieve all of the war’s objectives: to destroy Hamas’s military and political capabilities, to get back our hostages, to guarantee that Gaza won’t pose a threat to the State of Israel—and to get our residents back to their homes safely.”

Context: Israel resumed the fighting in Gaza last week after Hamas rejected US efforts to extend the ceasefire, and further exchanges aimed at releasing more of the hostages.

  • The IDF surprised Hamas by launching air strikes that targeted both military commanders and civil / political leaders. 
  • The IDF campaign has so far included air strikes and limited ground incursions. On the ground, the IDF have retaken control of part of the Netzarim Corridor that bisects the Strip.
  • The reunification of the Strip along the north-south axis was considered to have been a key achievement by Hamas during the recent ceasefire. Its recapture by the IDF is thus a significant blow. 
  • The IDF have also expanded their footprint in the south around Rafah (throughout the recent ceasefire the IDF remained on the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border), and in northern Gaza in areas adjacent to the Israeli border.       
  • This is the context of Netanyahu’s threats from the Knesset yesterday regarding taking control of more territory in Gaza. This could be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations to secure the release of the remaining 59 hostages.      
  • The first anti- Hamas demonstration broke out on Tuesday following renewed Israeli calls on civilians to leave neighbourhoods from which rockets had been fired into Israel. 
  • The protests have been led by people affiliated with the Bidna Naish (“we want to live”) Movement, inspired by Arab Spring protestors elsewhere in the region from over a decade ago. This group has organised anti-Hamas demonstrations in the past, primarily focused on the economic situation in the Gaza Strip. 
  • The chants of “Hamas out. Hamas is terrorist,” are reminiscent of protesters in Cairo who chanted, “Muslim Brotherhood out. Muslim Brotherhood are terrorists.”
  • Fatah and Palestinian Authority officials have also expressed support of the wave of protests. 
  • The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry released what it claims to be a comprehensive list – numbering 50,021 individuals – of the Palestinians who were killed or died since October 7th 2023. According to that data, combat-age males are vastly overrepresented among the casualties.
  • According to the IDF, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has struck over 430 targets in Gaza over the last week.
  • Israel is also simultaneously engaged militarily on other fronts:
    • The IDF confirmed they carried out further air strikes in , against the “remaining strategic military capabilities” at the Tadmur and T-4 bases. 
    • Over the past week, 18 targets in have been struck.
    • In addition, in response to six rockets fire from Lebanon toward the Galilee earlier this week, the IAF struck more than 40 Hezbollah terrorist targets across Lebanon.
    • There have also been six interceptions of surface-to-surface missiles launched by the Houthis from Yemen. Israel has not responded, as the US are engaged in that arena.   

Looking ahead: The anti-Hamas protests are expected to continue. In southern Gaza a group representing several large families has called for a “day of rage” tomorrow. 

  • In parallel, Israel is expected to increase the intensity of its operations in Gaza, adding more pressure on Hamas, but without expanding the IDF’s ground campaign at this point.

March 20, 2025

IDF advances in Gaza amid political turmoil

IDF forces have begun focused ground operations in the center of the Gaza Strip
IDF forces have begun focused ground operations in the center of the Gaza Strip, 19th March, 2025, photo credit: IDF

What’s happened: Operation Strength and Sword entered its third day, with Israeli jets and IDF vessels engaging dozens of terrorists as well as infrastructure and rocket launching sites in Gaza.

  • Among others, the headquarters of a Hamas battalion in the Darraj Tuffah neighbourhood was struck. This site had been used to plan numerous terror attacks against Israel’s home front and IDF troops.
  • Significantly, yesterday Israeli ground forces also moved back into the Netzarim Corridor.
  • Israeli Defence Minister Katz issued a stark warning to Gazans: “What comes next will be much worse, and you will pay the full price. The re-evacuation of the population from the battle zones will commence soon. If all the Israeli hostages are not released and Hamas is not ejected from Gaza, Israel will operate with an intensity that you have yet to see.”
  • Early Wednesday morning, the Houthis fired another missile at Israel, which was intercepted before entering Israeli territory. Sirens sounded throughout the Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas, sending hundreds of thousands of Israelis from their beds to shelters.
  • Jewish Power party leader Itamar Ben-Gvir returned to the cabinet yesterday. The cabinet is due to convene this evening to vote on dismissing the director of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar.
  • Israel’s Attorney General, herself the target of attempted dismissal by the Government, has determined that the Government cannot dismiss Bar without convening the Advisory Committee on Senior Appointments, as stipulated by the Government’s own decisions on appointments. The cabinet is due to vote on a resolution that would supersede this and cancel the need to convene the Appointments Committee. 

Context: The Netzarim Corridor is a column of territory from the Israeli-Gaza border to the sea which bisects the Strip and effectively prevents movement from one half to the other. From late October 2023 until the ceasefire went into effect in January 2025, Israel maintained a large military presence on the corridor, but it withdrew all its forces two months ago when the ceasefire deal went into effect.

  • Several top members of Hamas’s “civilian” wings have been eliminated, including prominent members of its domestic security forces. The most senior was the “shadow prime minister” of Hamas in Gaza, Issam al-Da’alis. Almost none of Hamas’s 18 member political bureau in Gaza, which served as the chief decision-making forum, remains. Eight have been eliminated, including Yahya Sinwar and Rawhi Mushtaha while seven other members left Gaza before the war broke out in October 2023 and were spotted in Qatar, Turkey and other countries. Among those left in Gaza is the 79-year-old Mahmoud al-Zahar, one of Hamas’s founders, and Ismail Barhoum, who is in charge of finances.
  • Three days into the Israeli offensive, Hamas has been so far unable to respond militarily in any way, an indication of its much depleted strength after nearly eighteen months of combat in a war it initiated. No rockets have been fired at Israeli cities, nor any terrorist attacks carried out from a West Bank cell. Moreover, no Israeli soldiers have been killed or captured in or around Gaza since fighting renewed early Tuesday morning. All this can, of course, change very rapidly. But it is a far cry from the kind of response Hamas would have been able to quickly mount as recently as one year ago.
  • Both the renewal of combat and the push to dismiss both the Attorney General and the Director of the Shin Bet continue to rile domestic Israeli politics. Tens of thousands of protestors against the decision to fire Bar – as well as to end the ceasefire – led mainly by activists who have campaigned on behalf of the Israeli hostages in Gaza, broke out in both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
  • It is expected that a decision to fire Bar would be challenged in the Supreme Court.
  • An additional factor complicating the attempt to dismiss Bar is the possible conflict of interest emerging from the Shin Bet’s investigation of the affair the Israeli media have taken to calling “Qatargate.” Last night, police detained two suspects in connection with the ongoing investigation of ties between figures in the Prime Minister’s Bureau and Qatar, though a court injunction blocked the naming of the two suspects.
  • Ben-Gvir’s return to the cabinet ensures the Government will have a majority to pass the budget by the March 31 deadline. A failure to pass a budget would lead to automatic elections. Ben-Gvir left the Government in January because of his opposition to the ceasefire.

Looking ahead: A delegation of Hamas officials is due to arrive in Cairo today to discuss the terms of renewing a ceasefire. This follows yesterday’s meeting in Cairo between Egyptian mediators and an Israeli military delegation.

  • There has not yet been a major call-up of reserves like those that preceded previous land operations in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
  • A letter from President Trump to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei calls for rapid negotiation of a new nuclear deal and, notably, contains a two-month deadline for reaching an agreement. The letter was delivered to the Iranians via intermediaries in the UAE. The two-month deadline would seem to imply a threat of possible military action in early summer. The US and UK are already engaged in operations against the Houthis, an Iranian proxy force in Yemen.

March 19, 2025

Operation Strength and Sword enters its second day

Chief of Staff, Lt. Col. Eyal Zamir conducted afield tour of the Rafah area in the Gaza Strip
Chief of Staff, Lt. Col. Eyal Zamir conducted afield tour of the Rafah area in the Gaza Strip, 18th March 2025. Photo credit: IDF

What’s happened: Operation Strength and Sword entered its second day, with Israeli attacks on targets in the Gaza Strip continuing albeit at a much lower level of intensity than on Tuesday.

  • The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry reported 14 fatalities overnight from the IDF’s operation.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu released a pre-recorded statement last night, referencing the two weeks during which the ceasefire was maintained despite Hamas releasing no hostages. “In the past two weeks, Israel did not initiate any military action in the hope that Hamas would change course. Well, that didn’t happen. While Israel accepted the offer of President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, Hamas flatly refused to do so. This is why I authorised yesterday the renewal of military action against Hamas.”
  • Netanyahu added that “From now on, negotiations will be conducted only under fire.”
  • The operation has so far successfully targeted the political leadership of Hamas and other terrorist organisations. Following IDF’s claim that it eliminated at least five senior Hamas political leaders – including Issam al-Da’alis who effectively functioned as Hamas’ prime minister in the Strip – today the IDF added several more to the list:
    • Mahmoud Marzouk Ahmed Abu-Watfa, who served as Minister of Internal Affairs and was in charge of Hamas’ Internal Security Forces.
    • Bahajat Hassan Mohammed Abu-Sultan, who served as Head of Hamas’ Internal Security Forces.
    • Ahmed Amar Abdullah Alhat, who served as Hamas’ Minister of Justice.
  • The American Interim Ambassador to the UN, Dorothy Shea, said that blame for the resumption of combat “lies solely with Hamas.” She said that the terrorist group had “steadfastly refused every proposal and deadline they’ve been presented over the past few weeks, including a bridge proposal to extend the ceasefire beyond the holidays of Ramadan and Passover to allow time to negotiate a framework for a permanent ceasefire.” 
  • A cruise missile launched from Yemen by Houthi jihadists was intercepted before it entered Israeli airspace. 

Context: Israel’s focus on Hamas’ political leadership is an indication of its concern during the course of the two-month ceasefire about Hamas’ ability to reconstitute its governing capacity in the Strip.

  • The renewal of fighting finds Israel in a more difficult domestic situation than before. The announcement of the government’s intention to fire Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, coupled with the intention to dismiss the Attorney General, have provoked intense opposition from the Government’s opponents and critics.
  • Writing in Israel Hayom, Yoav Limor contrasts the current domestic divisions to the unity that prevailed in the immediate aftermath of October 7. Then “an absolute majority of the public supported the immediate launching of war, now, the majority of the public supports a solution to the hostage issue before continuing the fighting.” 
  • There are 59 hostages, of whom 24 are assumed to be alive, still in Hamas captivity. Families of the hostages as well as survivors of Hamas captivity expressed anguish at the collapse of the ceasefire, with many coming to protest at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv. Einav Zangauker, mother of hostage Matan and one of the most vocal activists on behalf of the hostages, marched to the Gaza border with her daughter Natalie and other protesters, and denounced the decision to end the ceasefire.
  • Multiple reports yesterday indicated that the US administration had been briefed on Israel’s plan to renew fighting in Gaza.

Looking Ahead: It is unclear if Israel is planning another land operation in Gaza.

  • Yesterday the IDF ordered evacuations in several areas near the border with Israel, but it has said nothing regarding the Netzarim corridor, an area that bisects the strip from the border to the sea which the IDF controlled from the end of October 2023 until the beginning of the ceasefire in January.
  • Efforts by the US and Egypt, among others, to reinstate the ceasefire by means of a Hamas agreement to free some hostages continue. “Egypt and Qatar are planning to have quick connection with Israel side for urgent ceasefire and to start arranging quick meetings in Cairo for entering the next phase and exchange hostages and prisoners in order to achieve peace,” an unnamed Egyptian official told the Washington Post.

March 18, 2025

Operation Strength and Sword begins as Israel attacks dozens of Hamas targets

IDF leadership
IDF leadership, photo credit: IDF

What’s happened: The IDF has launched a series of what it termed preemptive strikes in Gaza, targeting leadership officials, mid-ranking military Hamas commanders, and terrorist infrastructure.

  • An Israeli official said that the strikes were based on Hamas’s readiness to execute terror attacks, build up force, and re-arm.
  • The Prime Minister’s Office announced that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz instructed the IDF “to act with strength against the Hamas terrorist organisation in the Gaza Strip.” This follows Hamas’s repeated refusal to release our hostages and its rejection of all the proposals it received from US President’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and from the mediators.
  • The statement added that: “The IDF is currently targeting Hamas terrorist organisation objectives across the Gaza Strip, with the goal of achieving the war objectives as determined by the political leadership, including the release of all our hostages – both the living and the fallen.” 
  • Defence Minister Katz said “If Hamas does not release all the hostages, the gates of hell will be opened on Gaza and Hamas’s murderers and rapists will encounter the IDF at an intensity they haven’t known until today.”
  • Israel has stated that at least five prominent Hamas officials were eliminated in last night’s air strikes. These include:
    • Issam al-Da’alis, considered to be one of Hamas’s chief administrators who effectively served as Hamas’s prime minister in Gaza. 
    • Bahjat Abu Sultan, who held a rank equivalent to brigadier-general, was responsible for domestic operations in Gaza and was considered to be a prominent Hamas leader. 
    • Ahmad Omar Al-Taha, who served as the director general of Hamas’s Justice Ministry in the Gaza Strip.
    • Mahmoud Abu Watfeh, who held the rank of major-general and served as the director general of Hamas’s Interior Ministry in Gaza (the commander of Hamas’s security services).
    • Hamas politburo member Abu Obaida Al Jimasi, was a Hamas leader who oversaw the administration of the southern Gaza Strip. He had not been seen in public since July 2023.
  • The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry has that said that 326 Palestinians have been killed in the strikes.
  • Hamas said that Israel would bear “full responsibility for the repercussions of its treacherous aggression in Gaza,” which it said has “exposed the hostages in Gaza to an unknown fate. We hold the criminal Netanyahu and the Nazi Zionist occupation fully responsible for the consequences of the treacherous aggression against Gaza and the defenceless civilians.” 
  • The attack was approved yesterday at a security consultation attended by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Katz, Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer, Chief of Staff Zamir, GSS Director Bar, the director of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, and other high-ranking officials. 
  • According to reports, all of them unanimously supported the attack after the hostage release negotiations reached an impasse. 
  • The preemptive offensive plan was kept in closed circles in the IDF to create an element of surprise and deception.
  • White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the Trump administration was consulted by the Israelis prior to the strikes. “As President Trump has made clear, Hamas, the Houthis, Iran – all those who seek to terrorise not just Israel but the US – will see a price to pay, and all hell will break loose.”
  • Leavitt added: “The Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran and Iranian backed terror proxies should take President Trump very seriously when he says he’s not afraid to stand for law-abiding people and stand up for the US and our friend and ally Israel.”
  • The hostage family forum has expressed its concern that the offensive could endanger the lives of the remaining hostages in Gaza and have demanded a meeting with the prime minister, the defence minister and the head of the negotiating team “in which [the officials] will clarify how they can guarantee that hostages won’t be affected by the military pressure and how they are planning to get them home.” 
  • This morning, the head of the Arabic-language IDF Spokesperson Unit issued a statement calling on residents of the eastern Gaza Strip in areas adjacent to the Israeli border to leave their homes and head westward.

Context: The offensive comes against the background of negotiations that took place in Qatar last week between a delegation from Israel and the Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari, and UAE foreign ministers, in which the parties reportedly discussed a version of the ‘Witkoff Plan’.

  • This plan included:
    • Hamas releasing ten hostages (presumably all will be alive). 
    • In exchange, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners (at a higher ratio than earlier deals) including convicted terrorists serving long sentences. 
    • Israel will resume the entrance of and amenities, potentially at a greater volume than before.
    • The ceasefire will be extended for a couple of months that will include Passover and Israel’s Independence Day (1st May). 
  • However, little to no progress has been made on this proposal.
  • It also comes against the background of the IDF detecting an irregular development in the Gaza Strip in recent days, which might point to Hamas preparations either to launch an attack or to raid Israeli territory. Over the last few weeks, the IDF has tracked preparations being made by Hamas and others for a resumption of hostilities in Gaza Strip. This included the recruitment of hundreds of new terrorists, the distribution of arms and repairs that were made to the command-and-control mechanisms in Hamas’s various battalions. 
  • Despite the tension between the prime minister and Shin Bet Director Bar (Netanyahu has announced his intention to fire Bar) the latter was present alongside the Chief of Staff during the operation.
  • The renewed strikes take place in a different context to the past war against Hamas: Hezbollah has been decimated in the north, which allows the IDF greater capacity to focus its forces on Gaza; and the Trump administration will likely give the IDF more leeway than did the Biden administration.

Looking ahead: It remains to be seen whether the operation will expand to ground troops reentering Gaza. 

  • If Israel were to re-take Gaza, it may adopt a different approach to the delivery of . The new IDF Chief of Staff, Zamir, has proposed that the IDF will take over the delivery of aid to Gazans as the only way to ensure Hamas does not profit from the aid. The previous chief of staff was reluctant to take this on, out of concern that it be perceived as military responsibility for the civilian population.  

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