What’s happening: The bodies of four Israeli hostages were returned from Gaza last night. 

• Hamas handed over the coffins to the Red Cross, which delivered them to the IDF at the Kerem Shalom crossing. There, the bodies went through preliminary identification.
• Overnight, the four bodies were positively identified as those of Shlomo Mantzur, Itzik Elgarat, Ohad Yahalomi and Tsachi Idan.
• In exchange, Israel is releasing over 600 Palestinian prisoners who were due to be released last weekend, but delayed by Israeli authorities following Hamas violations of the ceasefire agreement.
• President Herzog reacted to the return of the four hostages’ bodies. “Together with the entire nation, we share in the immense grief and sorrow of the bereaved families and the Kibbutz communities of Nir Oz, Nahal Oz, and Kissufim. The return of our brothers’ bodies from captivity underscores our moral obligation to do everything in our power to bring back all the hostages—the living to their loving families, and the fallen to be late to rest. Until the last one is home! They are all humanitarian cases, and they must all be returned.”
• Shiri Bibas and her two murdered sons Ariel and Kfir were buried yesterday in a private funeral. The three, whose bodies were returned by Hamas last week, were buried in a single coffin next to the grave of Shiri’s parents who were murdered in the October 7th massacre.
• Tens of thousands lined the streets along the route of the funeral procession from central Israel to the southern village where the family were buried. 
• Reflecting on the public’s guard of honour Ben Caspit wrote in Maariv, “When you look at the massive number of people who lined both sides of the road as Shiri, Kfir and Ariel’s funeral procession passed by, you understand a self-evident truth—Israel is a family. And just like every family, the Israeli family isn’t easy or simple. It’s a complicated, difficult and sometimes conflicted family. It’s a somewhat aggravating, suffocating and annoying family. It’s a strange, combative, pained, stormy, squabbling, reconciling, raucous and very impolite family. But  it is also a warm, embracing, excitable and moving family. A unique family. There isn’t another one like it in the world… That mutual responsibility is one of our secrets of success.”

Context: The release of the four bodies completes the first stage of the deal which has seen the overall release of 33 hostages, 25 alive plus eight bodies.   

• As Israel had insisted, last night was the only release carried out without any ceremony by Hamas. 
• Shlomo Mantzur was 85 years old when he was murdered on Kibbutz Kissufim, where he was one of the founders. It was not his first encounter with deadly Arab antisemitism. At only three years old, he survived the Farhud, the deadly pogrom in Iraq which saw at least 180 Jews murdered and thousands injured. His body had been held in Gaza since October 7th, and his death on that day was only confirmed in the past month.
• Itzik Elgarat was abducted alive on October 7th.Hamas terrorists shot him in the hand while breaking into his safe room in Nir Oz. Hostages released in November 2023 reported seeing him alive though injured. Another member of his family, Alex Dancyg, was also abducted on October 7thand subsequently murdered in captivity.
• Ohad Yahalomi was injured defending his house from Hamas terrorists on October 7th. As he lay bleeding, the terrorists abducted his wife and children. The motorcycle carrying his wife and daughters overturned, and they managed to escape. His twelve-year-old son was taken to Gaza and held, mostly alone, until the first ceasefire in November 2023. Ohad was kidnapped after his family and held in Gaza without receiving proper treatment for his injuries.
• Tsachi Idan was also injured trying to protect his family in their safe room on Kibbutz Nahal Oz. His eldest daughter died in his arms after Hamas terrorists shot her. The terrorists commandeered the family’s house and used it as a base of operations for hours while they rampaged in the kibbutz. They filmed the family’s anguish and live-streamed it on social media, eventually taking Tsachi with them back to Gaza where he was held and died in captivity.
• Also yesterday the IDF announced that it had again detected a rocket that was launched in the Gaza Strip that landed inside the enclave. According to Arab media reports, the rocket was fired from the southern Gaza Strip and landed in the northern part of the Strip. The Israeli Air Force  responded by attacking Hamas targets. 
• Defence Minister Katz confirmed, “The IDF attacked Hamas terrorist targets in response to a failed attempt to fire at Israel.” Adding, “The message to Hamas terrorists is clear: Even during the ceasefire, we won’t allow any threat to our communities. We won’t countenance it, and we won’t hold back. We will respond forcefully to any Hamas effort to attack our citizens. We return to the situation of October 7th.”
• No progress has been reported in talks regarding the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. Speculation has been rife that the first stage could be extended a few weeks to include a few more exchanges of hostages for prisoners, but nothing has been publicly agreed.

Looking ahead: Later today the IDF will release new inquiries into tactical failures at four specific sites of combat on October 7th.

• 59 hostages remain in captivity now 510 days. The Israeli assessment is that 35 have been killed, while 24 are thought to be alive.

What’s happening: A deal has been reached for the release of 602 Palestinian detainees who were initially scheduled to be released last weekend.

• Israel refused to release them on time following a series of Hamas violations of the ceasefire agreement.
  • Israeli anger was especially piqued by the theatrical ‘ceremonies’ Hamas was staging for hostage releases which were viewed by Israel as humiliating and grotesque.
  • The initial retiurn of an anonymous Palestinian woman, instead of the body of murdered hostage Shiri Bibas, hardened the Israeli stance even more (Shiri’s body was later repatriated). 
  • There was further fury at the psychological torture of filming two hostages to witnesses a release ceremony of other hostages.
• The  new deal will see the 602 detainees released this week in exchange for the bodies of four slain Israeli hostages. This marks the end of the first stage of the agreement.  
• President Herzog eulogised Oded Lifshitz at his funeral yesterday. “I stand here, on the soil of your homeland, as President of the State of Israel, on behalf of the State of Israel, I ask you—beloved Oded, I ask Yocheved and your dear family—for forgiveness. Forgiveness that the State of Israel did not protect you, your family, and your kibbutz. Forgiveness that in the face of such inhuman cruelty, you were left to stand alone. Forgiveness that we did not manage to rescue you and bring you and all your friends home safely, out of the clutches of the murderers. I ask forgiveness.”
• Lifshitz’s 86-year-old wife Yocheved, herself a liberated hostage, also spoke. “Our abduction and your death have shaken me to the core. We fought all through the years for social justice, for peace. To my sorrow, we were hit by a terrible blow by those we helped on the other side. I stand here staggered to see the number of graves, and the terrible destruction of our community that was completely abandoned on October 7^th.”
• The funeral of Shiri Bibas and her two children Ariel and Kfir is underway in southern Israel. The three will be buried in a private ceremony in Tzohar, a town near the family’s home in Nir Oz, the kibbutz in which they lived and from which they were abducted on October 7^th 2023.
• Ofri Bibas, sister of Yarden, said earlier today: “Through the window, I see today a broken nation. We will not rise or be rehabilitated until the last of the hostages is home. Thank you all.”
• The IDF released another of its operational investigations of October 7^th, this one from the massacre at Kibbutz Nahal Oz. The inquiry detailed the waves of attacks that morning and the army’s unpreparedness for fending off the attack as well as missed signals in the hours leading up to the attack that should have, but did not, lead to a higher state of alert.
• Further operational inquiries are due to be released in the coming days, including of the events at the nearby Nahal Oz outpost where 53 soldiers were killed (some of which was leaked to Israeli media yesterday), as well as at Kibbutz Kfar Aza and Moshav Netiv Haasara. The inquiry into the events at the Nova festival is due later.

Context: There is no sign from either of the warring parties or the various mediators that Israel and Hamas are close to reaching an agreement on the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire deal.

• US envoy Steve Witkoff has been trying to broker an extension of the first phase of the ceasefire. Such an extension would see more exchanges of hostages for prisoners, particularly hostages who are considered to be in need of immediate medical care.
• The remaining hostages are all male and under 50, and the liberation of each one of these would presumably require Israel to pay a higher “price” in the number of Palestinian prisoners released in exchange. Furthermore, it is unlikely that an extension of the first stage would cover all living hostages as Hamas could be assumed to want to hold on some in order to attain its larger political goals in the war.
• If no agreement is reached to extend the first stage Israel is preparing to renew intensive fighting with the backing of the US. It is hoped that the credibility of this threat  will persuade Hamas to  extend the deal.     
• A renewed outbreak of fighting, should the ceasefire collapse, will happen in a much different global strategic environment than that which obtained when the war broke out in October 2023. The Iranian “ring of fire” which surrounded Israel in 2023 has been broken in Lebanon and Syria, (but not Yemen), while the US administration today will not set limits on Israeli firepower.  
• Beyond the government, other Israeli politicians have presented their own “day after” plans for Gaza. Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats, called for a moderate Palestinian force to govern Gaza while maintaining freedom of action for the IDF.
• Leader of the Opposition Lapid presented a plan which called for Egypt to take responsibility for Gaza for 15 years during which Egypt’s $155 billion foreign debt would be wiped clean by the international community. Lapid explained that Israel cannot agree for Hamas to remain in power, the Palestinian Authority is incapable of administering Gaza, Israeli occupation is undesirable and a state of ongoing chaos is a grave security threat to Israel. At the same time, the Egyptian economy is on the brink of collapse and poses a threat to the stability of Egypt and the entire Middle East. Lapid said that during the 15 year period, Gaza would be rebuilt and conditions for self-government created.
• Lapid suggested that the current ceasefire be completed until the release of all the hostages, Egypt take control over Gaza via a UN Security Council resolution, defined as a “guardianship,” with the goal of turning Gaza Strip over to the PA Authority following a process of reform and de-radicalisation, with measurable criteria. At the same time, a reconstruction process would begin under Egyptian supervision, while Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accord signatories would participate in work groups and the US would invest in Gaza. He also called for Egypt to allow every resident of Gaza who wishes to leave and has where to go to do so in an regulated manner.

Looking ahead: The first phase of the ceasefire is expected to be completed tomorrow, with the release of four bodies of dead hostages. According to the agreement Israel will simultaneously release the 602 prisoners.    

• Of the prisoners due to be released:
  • Dozens of them were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis.
  • Some of them are responsible for dispatching  the horrific suicide bombing attacks from the mid-1990s.
  • Fifty of them are serving life sentences, and 47 of them are terrorists who were freed in the Shalit deal and were subsequently reincarcerated after they violated the terms of their release

Hostages – prisoners: On Saturday Hamas released the final tranche of 6 living hostages, in the framework of the first stage of the agreement. However Israel decided to delay the release of the 620 Palestinian prisoners who were scheduled to be freed in exchange.

• The Prime Minister’s Office explained that the delay was in response to Hamas’s “repeated violations” of the agreement, including “the ceremonies that humiliate our hostages and the cynical exploitation of our hostages for propaganda purposes.”
• Israel announced that these Palestinian prisoners would only be released after guarantees were received that future hostage releases would proceed without humiliating ceremonies. 
• Israel’s decision to delay the release of Palestinian prisoners was made after Hamas belatedly turned over the body of the late Shiri Bibas, after they had initially transferred the corpse of a Palestinian woman instead. 
• The latest trigger for the decision was the latest Hamas propaganda film of two hostages, Guy Gilboa-Dalal and Evyatar David, who were brought to witness the release ceremony from inside a vehicle before being taken back into captivity. 
• On the one hand, the video was proof that the two hostages are alive, but the psychological torture angered Israeli political leaders who insisted on a response.    
• The Gilboa-Dalal and David families gave their consent to air the video. Guy’s father, Ilan, told Kan TV, “I saw my son for the first time in 16 months. I heard his voice for the first time. For me, that gives me a bit of air, knowing that he’s okay. He doesn’t appear to be wounded. I think it needs to be seen, to see the abuse that they’ve endured, to bring them out to see their friends they had been with for 500 days leaving, and then to take them back to the tunnels.”
• The 620 Palestinian prisoners include hundreds of terrorists, dozens of whom were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis. Some of them are responsible for the horrific suicide bombing attacks from the mid-1990s. Fifty of them are serving life sentences, and 47 of them are terrorists who were freed in the Shalit deal and were subsequently rearrested and incarcerated after they violated the terms of their release. 
• The four hostages who were released on Saturday after more than 500 days in Gaza suffered from torture, physical violence, psychological abuse and severe starvation while in captivity. Tal Shoham, Omer Shem Tov, Omer Wenkert and Eliya Cohen were forced to drink sea water during their first months in captivity. Often they were denied food and water for several days. 
• The other two, Hisham a-Sayed, whom Hamas held captive for a decade, and Avera Mengistu, who was held in captivity for nearly ten years, both suffer from mental illnesses. 

Negotiations: Minister Dermer is in the US meeting with senior officials to try and formulate an agreement to extend the ceasefire and ensure the release of more hostages.

• The White House supports the Israeli decision to delay the release of the prisoners because of what it referred to as Hamas’s barbaric treatment of the hostages and the humiliating parade of the Bibas family’s coffins. US National Security Council Spokesman Brian Hughes said the delay was an appropriate response adding that President Trump would support whatever course of action Israel chooses regarding Hamas. 
• In response Hamas has declared that it would not hold negotiations with Israel until the prisoners were released. 
• There is heightened concern over the fate of the final phase of the first stage of the deal, which is meant to secure the release of four bodies of hostages killed in captivity, and is due to take place later this week.   
• The second stage is considered significantly more difficult as it is mean to include a permanent ceasefire and Hamas forced to relinquish its governance over Gaza and their leadership exiled abroad. 
• With all these conditions potentially unbridgeable at present, Israel is preparing for the possibility of having the first stage of the deal extended. 
• Negotiations over an extension will focus on how many terrorists will be released in exchange for the next hostages and an increase of goods entering Gaza. Hamas categorises the remaining hostages as young men of military age and will seek a higher ratio of prisoners for their release.    
• This option of an extension could be favourable ahead of Ramadan, which will start next week. It’s a period in which even Hamas will have no desire to resume the fighting. 

Looking ahead: President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected to return to Israel on Wednesday in an effort to extend the first stage of the agreement with Hamas and to secure the release of more hostages. 

• Sixty-three hostages remain in Gaza, living and dead.
• Witkoff is expected to continue his consultations in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
• The funeral for Shiri Bibas and her two young sons will also take place on Wednesday at a cemetery in southern Israel. 

What’s happened: Israel and the US have accused Hamas of violating the terms of the ceasefire, as the IDF announced that one of the four bodies released by Hamas yesterday was not, as the terrorist organisation claimed, that of Shiri Bibas.

• The bodies of Shiri’s children, Ariel and Kfir, (and the corpse of Oded Lifshitz) have been identified following their release yesterday, with an Israeli forensic team concluding that they had been brutally murdered in captivity. 
• The examination rejected Hamas’s claim that the children had been killed by an Israeli air strike, as the terrorist organisation claimed.
• In saying that the returned body was not that of Shiri Bibas, the IDF also confirmed that no DNA match had been found between the body and any other hostage, male or female.
• Authorities consider this “a very severe violation” of the agreement and have demanded Hamas return Shiri along with all the remining hostages.
• Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, told CNN last night that Hamas’s decision to transfer to Israel the body of someone who was not a hostage was “shocking and a clear violation of the agreement.” He added that Hamas must release all the hostages or face “total annihilation.”
• Meanwhile, security forces have launched a manhunt for the terrorists who placed bombs yesterday on four buses in the greater Tel Aviv areas of Bat Yam and Holon. Three bombs exploded in empty buses and two more were discovered before they detonated. The three buses were completely destroyed, but no one was injured. It is believed the bombs were meant to explode this morning. The bombs weigh five kg and were fitted with timers. Hamas has claimed responsibility.

Context: The Israeli public, reeling from the prior confirmation of the Bibas family’s death, have been further disgusted by the gruesome spectacle of Gazans celebrating around the return of the four coffins yesterday, now compounded with the evidence that one of the bodies was not even a hostage.   

• The explosions in southern Tel Aviv are a visceral reminder that Hamas remains determined to kill more Israelis and has the capacity to carry out attacks.
• It is assumed that the terrorists that placed the explosives came from the West Bank. On one of the unexploded bombs was written, “Revenge from the Tulkarm refugee camp.”
• The working assumption is that the timers on the bombs were mistakenly set for 9:00 PM instead of 9:00 AM, a time at which they would have likely killed or injured hundreds of people.
• Throughout the ongoing IDF operation in the West Bank, the army has exposed bomb-making factories and storage of dozens of IEDs (improvised explosives devices), presumably similar to those planted on the buses.
• The IDF has now further augmented its West Bank presence, adding three battalions and preparing to expand its offensive operations.
• According to the Shin Bet, they have successfully prevented 45 potential bombing attacks already this calendar year. This in addition to over 100 planned shooting and other “major terror attacks.” 
• Talks on the second stage of the hostage deal are supposed to start in the middle of next week. This will mark the first time that officials from Trump’s team will lead the process (the first stage was secured at the end of the Biden administration).  The president’s envoy Witkoff will run the process, with Minister Dermer leading the negotiations for Israel.  
• There is a consensus on the Israeli side that in order to declare the end of hostilities, Israel will demand the end of Hamas governance, the Strip’s complete demilitarisation, and the exiling of the Hamas leadership. The spectacle of dozens of masked gunmen on display at the release ceremonies underscores the remaining challenge left to defeat Hamas.  
• On the surface, the US accepts Israel’s position, but there is general scepticism as to whether Hamas can be cajoled into such an agreement.
• Therefore, it remains a possibility the sides will instead (or at least in the short term) look to extend the terms of the first stage. This could serve both sides’ interests as more of the remaining hostages are returned in exchange for the release of more Palestinian prisoners (that include convicted murderers) and increased aid. This could also coincide with Ramadan, due to begin at the end of next week. Conventional thinking suggests both sides have an interest in keeping the Muslim holy month as peaceful as possible, but even that assumption may not fit the Hamas agenda.            
• Another factor helping to pressurise Hamas is the full US support for Israel resuming the war if negotiations fail.  
• In parallel, representatives from Egypt, Jordan, UAE and Qatar are meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss an Arab plan for reconstructing the Gaza Strip, as an alternative to President Trump’s plan.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu will be holding emergency security consultations today, following the explosions in Tel Aviv.

• Israel is still expecting six living hostages to be released on Saturday. They include Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who have been held by Hamas since entering Gaza in 2014 and 2015.
• Also due to be released are Omer Shem-Tov, Omer Wenkert, and Eliya Cohen, who were kidnapped after attending the Nova festival; and Tal Shoham who was captured while visiting his wife’s family on Kibbutz Be’eri.
• Early next week, the bodies of four more deceased hostages are due to be handed over. This will mark the end of the first phase of the agreement.

What’s happening: This morning Hamas handed over the bodies of four hostages to Israel. According to Hamas, the four are: Oded Lifshitz, Shiri Bibas, Ariel Bibas, and Kfir Bibas.

• Israel will confirm their identification after they are processed at the National Institute for Forensic Pathology later today.
• At the handover “ceremony” in the presence of the Red Cross, coffins were proudly displayed with October 7 listed as the “date of arrest.” Gory propaganda posters decorated the stage, and a crowd of onlookers came with families to enjoy the festive atmosphere.
• All four hostages were taken alive from their homes on the morning of October 7th, 2023.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said in the video that today “will be a very difficult day for the State of Israel. A rattling day. A day of grief. We are bringing home four of our beloved hostages, dead. We embrace the families, and the heart of the entire nation is torn. My heart is torn, and yours as well. And the entire world’s heart ought to be torn because here we see who it is that we are dealing with, what we are dealing with, what monsters [we are dealing with].  We ache, we hurt but we are also determined to ensure that nothing like this ever happens again.”

Context: This latest release still leaves 69 hostages inside Gaza, now held for 503 days.

• Oded Lifshitz was 83 years old when he and his wife were abducted from their home during the massacre at Kibbutz Nir Oz. His wife Yocheved was released from captivity in 2023.
• He was one of the founders of the Kibbutz, a fluent Arab speaker and was known as a passionate campaigner for coexistence. He also volunteered to transport sick Palestinian children to receive medical care inside Israel.  
• Yocheved Lifshitz recorded a video message saying, “Oded was a great fighter for peace. He had wonderful relations with the Palestinians. One of the most painful things for me is that they betrayed him. They dragged him down through depths of the underworld after he struggled his entire life on their behalf.”
• Oded’s daughter, Sharone, lives in London and recently said of her father: “He really believed that we can be better than our base most hateful instinct. I think the fact he has had to experience this at such a late stage of his life when his health was not so strong is very painful.”
• Shiri Bibas was kidnapped with her two boys, four-year-old Ariel and nine-month-old Kfir during the rampage at Nir Oz. Her husband Yarden Bibas was also abducted that day. Videos of a mass of Gazan civilians descending on him and beating him were featured prominently in Israeli media, as were the videos of a terrified Shiri clutching her two boys as their home was looted and burned.
• It’s impossible to overstate the emotional impact of the return of the Bibas children on the Israeli public. Pictures of the redheaded boys have been found everywhere in Israel since October 7, the orange colour of the boys’ hair becoming a symbol early on for the plight of all hostages.
• The Bibas family have again called on the public not to eulogise or mourn Shiri, Ariel, and Kfir unless and until there is a positive forensic identification of their remains.
• Many Israelis were disheartened that beyond Jewish communities and pro-Israel circles there was not more outrage at the kidnapping of a mother and two small children that were subsequently held as bargaining chips by Hamas. Western governments did not make threats against the two allied states harbouring Hamas leaders (Turkey and Qatar) while humanitarian organisations gave them little attention. Similarly, Arab governments also did not demand their immediate release.

Looking ahead: On Saturday, six more living hostages are due to be released. 

• Minister Dermer is expected to lead the negotiations in the second phase. 
• They include Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who have been held by Hamas since entering Gaza in 2014 and 2015.
• Also due to be released are Omer Shem-Tov, Omer Wenkert and Eliya Cohen, who were kidnapped after attending the Nova festival; and Tal Shoham who was captured while visiting his wife’s family on Kibbutz Be’eri.
• Early next week, the bodies of four more deceased hostages are due to be handed over. This will likely mark the end of the first phase of hostage releases under the ceasefire agreement.
• Negotiations have not yet formally begun for the implementation of the second phase, which should see the release of the remaining 59 hostages, of whom 24 are believed to be alive. The positions the two sides have set out for themselves publicly are far different from each other. The US has firmly indicated that it wishes to see the second stage implemented.
• Tensions between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar spilled out into the open yesterday, following leaks from the Prime Minister’s Bureau blaming the Shin Bet for shortcomings in the hostage negotiations. The leaks are widely interpreted in Israel as an attempt to lay the groundwork for replacing Bar.