What’s happening: The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote tonight on the US proposal for the day after the war in Gaza.

• On Friday evening the US announced a consensual text reached alongside Qatar, Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Jordan and Turkey. Their joint statement endorsed “a pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood” emphasising that “the Plan provides a viable path towards peace and stability, not only between the Israelis and the Palestinians, but for the entire region.”
• The resolution which will endorse the twenty point Trump plan is also expected to outline the mandate of the International Stabilisation Force.
• In anticipation of the approval of the resolution, Indonesia’s Defence Minister confirmed that 20,000 troops have been trained to take on health and construction-related tasks for a peacekeeping operation in Gaza.
• Speaking at the start of the Government meeting on Sunday, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated that “Hamas will be disarmed. Either this will happen the easy way or it will happen the hard way.”
• Regarding a Palestinian state, Netanyahu said, “Our opposition to a Palestinian state in any territory west of the Jordan [River], this opposition is existing, valid, and has not changed one bit.”
• He also addressed the recent spike in settler violence saying, it was carried out by “a minority that enters Judea and Samaria, and does not represent the large public of settlers, who are law-abiding and loyal to the state.” Netanyahu added that the government would take action against these disturbances.  

Context: Israel’s top priority will be for the disarming of Hamas and the demilitarisation of the Strip.

• Israel had hoped it would be given veto power to prevent the deployment of troops from Turkey or Qatar, but according to the draft text, only “close consultations” will be held with Israel.
• There is also concern that any presence of international forces will restrict the IDF’s freedom of action.
• However, even with the approval of a UN resolution it seems unlikely that any force composition will be able to disarm Hamas. Moreover, most countries have refused to send troops to Gaza as long as Hamas remains armed.
• Hamas continues to reject any efforts to disarm.
• A disturbing report on Kan News revealed that Hamas has in recent weeks begun to stockpile advanced weapons in Africa, Yemen and other supportive countries for it to use in a time of need in the Gaza Strip and elsewhere.
• The UN Security Council’s endorsement of a Palestinian state – via its approved wording of ‘pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood’ at this moment is also a cause of great concern for the Israeli government, which believes that in the aftermath of the October 7 massacre it would be perceived as a reward for terrorism. The UN move follows unilateral recognition by UK, France, Canada and others, (but this time is being led by the US).    
• Some in Israel highlight that the resolution will reference Trump’s 2020 peace plan, which includes many favourable conditions for Israel, but the text could also reference other initiatives (perceived as less favourable to Israel) like the French-Saudi plan too.
• There appears to be no reference to the key reforms incumbent on the Palestinians, for example refraining and condemning terrorism, incitement, and the pay-to-slay incentivised payments programme.  
• Meanwhile, on Friday the body of hostage Meny Godard was returned to Israel. Godard was 73 years old when he was murdered on October 7 along with this wife, with his body taken from his home in Kibbutz Beeri to Gaza. Three deceased hostages remain in Gaza: Ran Gvili, Dror Or and Sudthisak Rinthalak with their fate currently unknown.  

Looking ahead: The UN Security Council is expected to convene and vote on the resolution this evening.

• On Tuesday President Trump is due to host Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Washington. The proposed security agreement they are expected to agree includes concerning for Israeli security, chiefly the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets, that could significantly degrade Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region.
• Separately, US envoy Witkoff, is set to meet once more with the head of Hamas’ politburo, Khalil al-Hayya.

What’s happening: In close coordination with Israel, an Egyptian team entered Gaza with heavy diggers to try to locate and retrieve hostage bodies.

• Israel gave consent for Egypt to bring in the heavy equipment and gave the Egyptians the geolocations where it believes some of the bodies are buried.
• In addition, Israel has allowed Hamas representatives to cross the Yellow Line in the Israeli held part of Gaza in order to try and locate hostages’ bodies together with the Red Cross.
• The searches follow the latest comments by President Trump over the weekend that, “Hamas is going to have to start returning the bodies of the hostages…quickly, or the other countries involved…will take action.”
• President Trump also related to the two bodies of American citizens, Itay Chen and Omer Neutra, still held by Hamas. During his visit at the end of last week US Secretary of State Rubio said that, “the remains are going to be released. That’s going to happen. And if it doesn’t, then the deal got broken. But it’s going to happen.”
• Rubio also met with the families of the American-Israeli hostages and later wrote on X that “We will not rest until their—and all—remains are returned.”
• Defence Minister Katz also released a statement noting, “The most urgent moral mission is, of course, the return of all the hostages and the fallen to their homes, and we will do everything to fulfil this sacred and critical mission.”
• Katz revealed that 60 per cent of Hamas’s underground tunnels network still remains, saying, “I have instructed the IDF to prioritise the destruction of the tunnels as the central task in the yellow zone currently under our control.” Katz added that this would be coordinated with the US to, “find a way to thoroughly address the dismantling and destruction of all terror tunnels in the remaining territory under their responsibility, alongside disarming Hamas.”
• On Saturday the Israeli Air Force struck the Nuseirat area in the central Gaza Strip, west of the yellow line. The IDF Spokesperson’s Office confirmed, “The IDF targeted an Islamic Jihad terrorist who planned to carry out a terror attack against IDF forces in the immediate future. The troops in the Southern Command are deployed in the area in accordance with the terms of the ceasefire agreement and will continue to act to eliminate any immediate threat.”

Context: According to point four of the Trump plan, Hamas should have returned all hostages, the living and dead, within 72 hours, so they are already in clear violation.

• It has now been six days since the last remains of hostages, Arie Zalmanowicz and Tamir Adar, were returned to Israel.
• Thirteen bodies remain in Gaza. According to Israeli intelligence, Hamas know the location of at least eight bodies of hostages.
• The entry of Egyptians marks the first time since the ceasefire that Israel has allowed a foreign team to enter Gaza. Last week Israel refused entry to dozens of Turkish rescue workers. 
• Egyptian President Sisi made a personal commitment at the peace summit he hosted in Sharm el-Sheikh that the Israeli bodies will be returned.
• The entry of the Egyptian team was agreed upon during talks in Israel with Egyptian General Intelligence Director Hassan Rashad. An additional Israeli security team visited Cairo over the weekend to coordinate it.
• The latest Trump post once more underscores how the president remains personally committed to the return of all the bodies. On the one hand he backs the Israeli position, whilst he also continues to carry favour with the Qataris. The latest example was his fawning praise heaped on the Qatari emir when they met on board Air Force One, whilst it refuelled in Doha.  
• The general assessment in Israel is that Hamas is lying and deliberately refusing to return the bodies it has in its possession. This is partly in order to prolong the current ceasefire and hold off the next stage that includes the demand for them to disarm. In addition, they are keenly aware of Israeli society’s sensibilities on this matter.
• Israel is keen to add further pressure on Hamas including the threat of resuming the fighting. Israel could also re-arrest prisoners recently released  to the West Bank, or impose restrictions on the humanitarian aid.
• Following a train of senior US officials visiting last week, the Israeli government pushed back at the notion that it is a US ‘protectorate’. Nevertheless Israel is increasingly reliant on the US, as there are divergent opinions on would-be regional allies.
• Saudi Arabia is keen to play a dominant role in rebuilding Gaza, but will not fund anything until a new Palestinian led government of technocrats is formed in Gaza.  
• Turkey is thought to be trying to rebrand Hamas, and maintain its influence in Gaza, however the US has so far backed the Israeli position vetoing an entry of the Turkish troops as part of the International Stabilisation Force.
• Egypt continues its longstanding efforts to bring about reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas.
• In the meantime, Hamas continues to reassert control, killing off rivals and reorganising their forces.

Looking ahead: In his weekend social media post, Trump gave Hamas a 48 hour deadline – which expires today – but left in unclear what the consequences of failure to deliver would be.  

• It remains unclear which countries will deploy troops into Gaza while Hamas maintain their weapons. Egypt for example has refused to send in soldiers and is only willing to send military advisors and prefers a Palestinian entity to take control. Similarly, the UAE and Saudi Arabia also oppose sending forces in while Hamas continues to retain military command there. The other countries involved, Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Jordan and Morocco have reportedly taken a similar stance.
• Ahead of his 90^th birthday, the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas announced that the Deputy Chairman of the PLO Executive Committee, Hussein al-Sheikh will take over if the position becomes vacant.

What’s happening: White House envoy to the Middle East Witkoff has joined the talks in Qatar to try and secure a deal to release more hostages.   

• The talks are being held with the Israeli delegation alongside the Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari and UAE foreign ministers. 
• According to reports, the focus of the negotiations is a version of the ‘Witkoff Plan’ that includes:
  • Hamas releasing ten hostages (presumably all will be alive). 
  • In exchange Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners (at a higher ratio than earlier deals) including convicted terrorists serving long sentences. 
  • Israel will resume the entrance of humanitarian aid and amenities, potentially at a greater volume than before.
  • The ceasefire will be extended for a couple of months that will include Passover and Israel’s Independence Day (1^st May). 
• On Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu held consultations with the Israeli negotiators to coordinate their stance ahead of the Doha talks.
• He also held a meeting with senior security officials to approve military plans for the Gaza Strip if the negotiations fail. 
• Israel media reported that despite the publicised tension with the prime minister, head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar attended both meetings.
• In Washington President Trump appeared to backtrack on his plan to resettle Gazans outside of the Strip, saying, “nobody’s expelling any Palestinians.”   

Context: There remains a high level of anguish in Israeli society to secure the release of all the remaining  hostages.

• This has been compounded by the accounts of recently released hostages that describe horrific conditions of their captivity, including being kept underground, beaten and tortured, and fed morsels of sometimes rotten food.       
• 59 hostages remain in captivity now for 524 days. Of them only 24 are alive, with 35 thought to have been killed.     
• As a result of information garnered from released hostages, the family of Avinatan Or received their first indication that he is still alive, but being held in horrific conditions. 
• In the absence of the agreement, there has not yet been a return to fighting, but the IDF has presented a plan to the government as a contingency. The credibility of the military threat, which may be more intense that previous fighting, is intended to pressure Hamas into a deal.
• Alongside military action, the new IDF Chief of Staff, Lt Gen Zamir is proposing that the IDF will take over the delivery of aid to Gazans as the only way to ensure Hamas does not profit from the aid. The previous chief of staff was reluctant to take this on, out of concern that it be perceived as military responsibility for the civilian population.  
• Hamas appear to be particularly satisfied with the revelation that they held direct talks with a US officials, as this broke the long held diplomatic veto by western liberal members of the international community. However US officials played down its significance with Secretary of State Rubio referring to it as a “one-off” that “hasn’t borne fruit.”
• There remains residual concerns that if no agreement is reached the US will do a side deal to secure the remaining hostages with US citizenship (Edan Alexander and the bodies of four murdered hostages). It is also possible that they could be released by Hamas as a goodwill gesture, that could further appeal to President Trump.
• Overall, it appears US and Israel remain well coordinated. During a meeting in Jeddah earlier this week, Secretary Rubio told Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, that the US insists that Hamas have no role in any solution for postwar Gaza. Similarly Israeli Foreign Minister Saar has again emphasised that “the war in Gaza will not end without the demilitarisation of Gaza Strip.”
• Israel is caught in a bind regarding the Witkoff framework. On one hand, the release of ten more living hostages is highly sought. On the other, it calls into question the fate of those who remain. From Hamas’s perspective, they could agree to this deal, as long as they retain some of the captives as an insurance policy to ensure their survival.                        

Looking ahead: Despite no breakthrough yet, the fact that the Israeli delegation has not been recalled gives hope that there is still hope a deal can be reached. The next few days are once more seen as critical.    

• Later today the IDF will present their latest internal investigation, this time focusing on kibbutz Nir Oz.    
• According to consistent polling, there remains a large majority of the Israeli public in favour of forming an independent state commission of inquiry into October 7th. Last night President Herzog once more endorsed his support for such a commission. So far the government has been unwilling to sanction it.