What’s happened: The IDF has confirmed it conducted a strike on Hezbollah number two Fuad Shukr last night, while Hamas have confirmed that its overseas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in the early hours of this morning.

In Beirut: First, in southern Beirut at around 7.40pm yesterday, high-ranking Hezbollah official Shukr was killed in an air strike in the city’s Dahiya Quarter.

• IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: “This evening, the IDF carried out a pinpoint attack in Beirut and killed Fuad Shukr, also known as Said Mohsin, the most senior commander in the Hezbollah terrorist organisation and the head of its strategic array. Mohsin also served as the right-hand man and adviser on the planning and prosecution of the war to Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.”
• It is thought that the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate successfully located Shukr in an eight-story apartment building, advising the Israeli Air Force of his whereabouts and of the opportunity for a strike. Lebanese media reported three killed in the attack, including two children, and at least 74 injured.

In Tehran: Later, at 2.00am local time, the head of Hamas’s Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in the Iranian capital, seemingly by a precision-guided missile fired directly through the window of the apartment in the military veterans building in which he was staying while attending the newly-elected Iranian president’s swearing-in ceremony.

• Unlike the strike on Shukr, Israel is yet to comment on the assassination of Haniyeh. Hamas, confirming Haniyeh’s death, said he had been killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike…” The office of the Palestinian President Abbas, whose Fatah faction is a rival to Hamas, said he “strongly condemned the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, deeming it a cowardly act and a serious escalation.”
• The New York Times reports this morning, citing two senior Iranian officials, that Iran was holding an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council in response to Haniyeh’s assassination.
• Iranian sources are also briefing that the missile which killed Haniyeh was fired from outside of Iran.

Context: Both assassinations are indicative of Israel’s ability to locate and strike Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. They testify to the sophistication of Israel’s intelligence and its ability to conduct precision strikes.

• Shukr was targeted for being ultimately responsible for Saturday’s Hezbollah rocket strike on Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, which killed 12 children and injured 40 others. A Hezbollah veteran of over 40 years, Shukr was also thought to have played a key role in the 1983 bombing of the US Marine Corps Barracks in Beirut which killed 241 US military personnel and wounded 128 others.
• In recent years, as head of Hezbollah’s Strategic Unit, Shukr had assumed responsibility for Hezbollah’s weapons programme, including the procurement of precise-guided missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, long-range rockets, and UAVs.
• Yediot Ahronot’s Ronen Bergman, quotes a high-ranking Israel official saying of Shukr, “He is Nasrallah’s secret-bearer and the person responsible for the organization’s military buildup. After Mustafa Badreddine’s death, he took some of his powers and his standing became stronger. He was considered to have very close relations with Quds Force officials in the Revolutionary Guard, and… will be perceived by the Iranians as a major loss. He is considered to be intelligent and judicious, a man in the shadows who operated professionally and over a very long period of time.”
• Israeli media also quotes Muhammad Ali Al-Husseini, secretary-general of the Islamic Arab Council in Lebanon, saying that Fuad Shukr had been the most important operational figure in Hezbollah. He said that in terms of hierarchy, Fuad Shukr had been number one, even before Nasrallah, on the security and operational level.
• During the over nine months of escalated conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, strikes on the Lebanese capital have been rare. The strike on the Shukr was the first since a January strike killed Hamas’s deputy leader abroad Saleh al-Arouri.
• Earlier this week, the Israeli Security Cabinet empowered Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant to decide on Israel’s response to the Majdal Shams attack, enabling quick decision-making and maintaining the element of surprise.
• Israel is thought to have advised Washington of the strike in advance. US State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel later said that “we’re continuing to work toward a diplomatic resolution that would allow Israeli and Lebanese civilians to return to their homes and live in peace and security. We certainly want to avoid any kind of escalation.”
• Patel reiterated that US support for Israel remained “ironclad”, that “Israel has every right to defend itself”, and “certainly faces threats like no other country does in that region of the world.”
• For fuller context and background on Hezbollah, the scale of the threat it poses, its ideology, history, and place within the Iranian axis, see BICOM’s recent briefing paper.
• For Israel – in particular the Mossad – to have the local intelligence in Tehran to have been able to locate the exact room in which Haniyeh was staying represents a spectacular success. It speaks to the sophistication of Mossad’s penetration of Iran, while the precision required to target him through his apartment window speaks to the sophistication and precision Israel is able to call upon for such targeted assassinations.
• It is also important that Israel chose to act in a relatively narrow moment of opportunity while Haniyeh was away from his Qatari base. It is to be assumed that Israel would also have possessed the intelligence and operational capacity to strike Haniyeh in Qatar. However, such an assassination would have been likely ruled out due to its likely impact on Israel-US relations, and to Qatar’s dual status as a backer and host of Hamas, on the one hand, and a mediator on the question of the hostages, on the other.
• Haniyeh is the most senior Hamas official killed since the star of the war in Gaza. He had been based in Qatar since replacing Khaled Mashal (himself the previous subject of an unsuccessful Israeli assassination attempt) in 2017. There, Haniyeh had been the most senior of Hamas’s overseas leadership – distinct from the local Gazan leadership headed by October 7th mastermind Yahya Sinwar. Three of Haniyeh’s sons and four of his grandchildren were killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza in April.
• Considered a relative pragmatist within Hamas, Haniyeh was a key figure in coordinating the Sunni Hamas’s relations with the Iranian Shiite axis.
• The assassinations serve as a further warning to the rest of the Hezbollah and Hamas leaderships that they may well be future targets. Over the last nine months, Israel has conducted several targeted assassinations, including Hamas’s Gazan number two Mohamed Deif, al-Arouri, and senior IRGC officer Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Looking ahead: While Israel will brace for a possible response from Hezbollah, the IDF confirmed that “there are no changes in the Home Front Command defensive guidelines. The IDF is currently conducting a situational assessment. If any changes will be made, an update will be released on the IDF and Home Front Command’s platforms.”

What’s happened: Chinese media is reporting that an interim reconciliation agreement has been signed between Hamas and Fatah, following Beijing-brokered talks.

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk, Fatah official Mahmud al-Aloul, and representative from 12 other Palestinian groups. Yi said the parties had agreed to establish an “interim national reconciliation government” to govern postwar Gaza.
• Abu Marzouk said, “Today we sign an agreement for national unity and we say that the path to completing this journey is national unity. We are committed to national unity and we call for it.”
• In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Katz criticised Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah for moving towards reconciliation with Hamas. “Instead of rejecting terrorism,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “Mahmoud Abbas embraces the murderers and rapists of Hamas, revealing his true face.”
• “In reality, this won’t happen because Hamas’s rule will be crushed, and Abbas will be watching Gaza from afar. Israel’s security will remain solely in Israel’s hands.”
• Palestinian Islamic Jihad issued its own statement on the talks, saying it “rejects any formula that includes recognition of Israel explicitly or implicitly” and that it had “demanded the withdrawal of the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s [ie Fatah’s] recognition of Israel.”
• Meanwhile, two senior terrorists were among several Palestinian killed by an Israeli drone strike and in further clashes in the West Bank city of Tulkarem yesterday.
• The IDF named the two as Ashraf Nafeh, the head of Hamas in Tulkarem, and Muhammad Awad, the head of the Fatah-linked al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades in Tulkarem. The IDF said Nafeh was “responsible for manufacturing and embedding explosives intended to attack IDF soldiers, as well as recruiting new operatives into the Hamas organisation. Additionally, he was involved in numerous attacks against IDF soldiers in Judea and Samaria, and was in contact with external Hamas terrorists who advanced terror attacks in Judea and Samaria.”
• Awad, the IDF said, “was actively involved in shooting attacks against IDF soldiers. In addition, he raised terror funds to support the battalion’s activity in the area, and procured weaponry for the battalion.”
• Israeli military sources also said a female Palestinian combatant was killed after brandishing a weapon whilst wearing clothing marked “medical service”.
• Also yesterday, two Israeli Defence Ministry employees were lightly wounded when a bomb exploded at the security barrier in the Mount Gilboa area.
• The Shin Bet also announced on Monday that it had foiled a plot by a West Bank terror cell to kidnap Israelis. This followed the intelligence service revealing on Sunday that it had also thwarted a plan by Palestinian university students to launch a shooting attack on Israelis in the West Bank.
• In Gaza, the IDF has continued its operations in Khan Younis. Ahead of the operation, the IDF called on Gazan civilians to temporarily evacuate from specific areas of Khan Younis.
• According to the IDF, this was based on “intelligence indicating that terrorists were operating and firing rockets in these areas, as well as efforts by Hamas to reassemble its forces there.”
• IDF activity includes operations  above and below ground, with the IDF confirming they have “eliminated several terrorists”.

Context: Hamas and Fatah have been divided, and the Palestinian national movement split, since elections in 2006 and a bloody civil war in 2007 left Hamas in power in Gaza and the Fatah Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority (PA) in control in parts of the West Bank.

• Although notable, this provisional accord, if confirmed, should not yet be considered final. Seeming unification accords between Hamas and Fatah have ultimately come to nought in recent years. Ongoing tensions between the two parties was illustrated again recently when Abbas responded to the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Mohammed Deif by blaming Hamas for the sufferings of the Gazan people during the war.
• Fatah officials highlight that Hamas are coming to the talks at its weakest point due to the losses it has taken in Gaza. Israeli media cites Fatah officials playing down reports of an agreement, saying that the joint statement was mainly intended as a show of respect to their Chinese hosts.
• The US has long pushed for the PA to assume a leading role in the post-war governance of the Strip. Even before these moves towards reconciliation, Prime Minister Netanyahu has been publicly resistant to such moves, citing the PA’s ongoing incitement of terror and financial support of terrorists, known as ‘pay for slay’.
• Katz’s comment that “Abbas will be watching Gaza from afar” is a reaffirmation of this position, and a reflection of sections of the Israel right’s desire for Israel to retain control of the Strip post-Hamas.
• The US has also been clear that Hamas cannot be part of the future governance of Gaza, and with US financial and diplomatic support essential for the reconstruction of the devastated Strip, any governance structure including Hamas would likely have serious implications for US support.
• China’s brokering and hosting of reconciliation talks reflects Beijing’s increasing diplomatic assertiveness and desire to insert itself as a major player in the region. It follows, for example, its 2023 brokering of peace talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
• The IDF said that its Tulkarem operation was one of 50 it has carried out in the West Bank over the past nine months. Some 4,400 Palestinian have been arrested, including some 1,850 affiliated with Hamas. The Palestinian Health Authority lists more than 560 Palestinians killed in the West Bank in that time, with Israel saying the majority were combatants killed during raids. 27 Israelis have been killed in that time, either from terror attacks or during clashes in the West Bank.
• Since October 7th, many have warned that the PA’s increasing lack of control in the West Bank could lead to a major conflagration. Thus far, despite the IDF’s need to conduct regular counter-terror raids, this has not come to pass. The PA, along with Washington, have repeatedly complained that Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich’s withholding of tax revenues collected on its behalf by Israel has exacerbated its own security services lack of control. The period has also seen a surge in violence from Israeli settlers towards West Bank Palestinians.

Looking ahead: Israel has reportedly reached agreement with the UAE and the World Health Organisation to facilitate the evacuation of 250 sick and wounded Gazans for medical treatment in the Emirates next week.

• The Israeli hostage negotiation delegation is expected to leave tonight for Egypt for further talks, with its latest proposal likely to be floated tomorrow.

Netanyahu in the US: Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in the US yesterday, ahead of his address to Congress tomorrow.

• Before his departure, Netanyahu told reports he was leaving “at a time when Israel is fighting on seven fronts… I will seek to anchor the bipartisan support that is so important for Israel,” he continued. “And I will tell my friends on both sides of the aisle that regardless who the American people choose as their next President, Israel remains America’s indispensable and strong ally in the Middle East.”
• On arrival, Netanyahu met with hostage families, alongside his wife Sara and Israeli government representative on hostages Gal Hirsch.
• Of the pursuit of a hostage deal, Netanyahu said “We are determined to get everyone back. The conditions for getting them back are ripening thanks to the simple reason that we are exerting very-very strong  pressure on Hamas. We’ve seen a certain change, and I think that change will gradually increase… Regarding a deal, the conditions are gradually ripening, without doubt. That is a good sign, and the other sign that we have seen is that the enemy’s spirit is beginning to break.”
• Israel negotiators have been continuing lengthy and intense negotiations with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. A formal Israeli proposal is set to be delivered in Qatar on Thursday.
• The IDF also announced yesterday that two more hostages, Alex Dancyg and Yagev Buchshtab, are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas. The circumstances of their death in Hamas captivity are being investigated. Yagev Buchshtab was a 34-year-old from Kibbutz Nirim. He was abducted together with his wife, Rimon, who was released in November as part of the first hostage release agreement. Dancyg, was 75, from Nir Oz. Born in Poland, he was a renowned Holocaust educator at Yad Vashem.

Gaza Strip:  The IDF continues to operate in various parts of the Gaza Strip, including in Khan Yunis and Rafah

• The IDF deemed it necessary to return to Khan Younis to thwart Hamas efforts to reconstitute some of their fighting capacity. On Monday night, two additional IDF brigades were sent to the city. Tanks entered the eastern part of the city, after first informing local residents on the eastern edges of the humanitarian zone to leave and to head further to the west. The IDF reports that over 30 terrorist targets have since been attacked in Khan Younis.
• In the Rafah area, according to the IDF they continue their “precise, intelligence-based operational activity.” This includes killing “dozens of terrorists in close-quarters encounters, with support from the IAF.”
• This included Muhammad Abu Seidu, “a Nukhba terrorist who participated in the invasion into Israel on October 7th and directed multiple attacks against IDF troops in the Gaza Strip.”
• Also in central Gaza, the IDF confirmed that “over the past day, the forces have eliminated numerous terrorists.” In addition, the Israeli Air Force “struck approximately 35 targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military structures, terrorists and other terror infrastructure sites.”
• In Rafah, the IDF announced that the Nahal Brigade who have been operating there for about two months have, “eliminated over 150 terrorists who posed a threat to the troops and located approximately 400 different weapons.” Operating in four separate sectors:
  • “In the south of the ‘Brazil’ area, the troops destroyed a significant underground tunnel route hundreds of metres long that included several floors and levels.”
  • “In the north of the ‘Yibna’ refugee camp, the troops carried out a targeted operation during which they eliminated terrorists and located weapon storage facilities in the area.”
  • “In the centre of the ‘Brazil’ area and the ‘Alshaboura’ refugee camp, the troops deepened the operational achievement and located: workshops both above and below the ground, rockets in sensitive locations and tunnel shafts leading to terror tunnels.”
  • “In their most recent operation, the troops raided a school near the humanitarian route where armed terrorists who tried to take over the route were entrenched… In the school yard, they located an operational tunnel shaft used by the terrorists.”
• On the Gaza periphery, there was an attempted stabbing attack on Monday at the entrance of Netiv Haasara. The assailant pulled up in a rental car, exited the vehicle and threatened members of the community’s security team with a knife, before he was shot. The terrorist was later identified as a Muslim Canadian that had arrived in Israel posing as a tourist the day before.
• It’s now been 291 days since the hostages were abducted. According to official Israeli data of the 120 hostages still in captivity, 46 are no longer alive, at least 13 were killed since the first hostages were released at end of last year. Of the 74 presumed still alive, 2 are children, 12 are women, including 5 female soldiers. Of the 60 men, six are over the age of 60.

Context: Netanyahu arrives in the US at a time of extraordinary American political upheaval and is likely to find the US political establishment concerned primarily with domestic matters.

• With Biden freed of the burden of re-election, there is much speculation on what his policies and attitude towards Israel and its war in Gaza will be during his remaining tenure. His administration has expressed deep frustration with Netanyahu’s right and far-right coalition, and shown itself willing to impose sanctions on West Bank settlers, and may look for further opportunities to do so.
• Netanyahu will recognise the sensitivity of the American political climate he is entering and is thought likely to focus his address to congress on consensual, bipartisan aspects of the US-Israeli relationship.
• After his withdrawal from the presidential race, in a message to his campaign base, Biden said that during his remaining time in office, “I’ll be working very closely with the Israelis and with the Palestinians to try to work out how we can get the Gaza war to end, and Middle East peace, and get all those hostages home.”
• Hostage negotiations have continued under the broad framework of what became known as the “Biden proposal”, despite its originating in Israel. The two areas of greatest concern in recent weeks have related to Hamas’s demands that Israel vacate the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt, and that northern Gazans displaced by the war be allowed to return north. Israel has maintained that some kind of presence in the corridor is essential to prevent the resumption of weapons smuggling into Gaza through Egypt, and that mechanisms must be in place to prevent Hamas fighters moving north along with the civilian population.
• It is highly likely that Hamas will instinctively resist the solutions Israeli delegates will propose on these issues. However, there is hope that the combination of the pressure Israel has brought to bear on the organisation through its military campaign and diplomatic pressure from Qatar and Egypt will persuade Hamas leaders that this is the best deal it can expect.

Looking ahead: This is a particularly crucial moment for the hostages and for hostage negotiations, as, with the election approaching, the US will have reduced diplomatic capacity to devote to the issue.

• Netanyahu will address both houses of congress tomorrow, with some Democratic figures expected to boycott.
• Despite a meeting with President Biden at one stage looking unlikely due to his Covid diagnosis, the two are expected to meet on Thursday. Before his departure, Netanyahu said that this would be “an opportunity to thank him for the things he did for Israel in the war and during his long and distinguished career in public service, as Senator, as Vice President, and as President.”
• “It will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how to advance in the critical months ahead the goals that are important for both our countries: Achieving the release of all our hostages, defeating Hamas, confronting the terror axis of Iran and its proxies, and ensuring that all Israel citizens return safely to their homes in the north and in the south.”
• Netanyahu is also set to meet with Harris during his visit.
• He is due to fly back to Israel on Friday, but is thought to be prepared to extend his stay to enable a meeting with Trump

What’s happened: On Saturday, Israel responded to last Friday’s fatal Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv by attacking the Yemeni port of Hodeida with F-15, F-16, and F-35 bombers, setting oil and gas depots on fire and disrupting port activity.

• The operation was codenamed “Long Arm”, a reflection of the fact that Israeli planes had to travel over 1,800 kilometres to reach Yemen – longer even than the journey to Tehran.
• The approximately 20 planes involved in the mission required mid-air refuelling and flew at low altitude to avoid enemy radar. Israeli naval vessels in the Red Sea provided cover.
• The attack, which took place under the US CENTCOM umbrella, and is likely to have involved some level of coordination with both Egypt and Saudi Arabia, is thought to have reduced the Hodeida port’s fuel storage capacity from 150,000 tonnes to 50,000.
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said about Operation Long Arm: “We attacked the area of the port because it is a supply route to deliver Iranian arms from Iran to Yemen.” He added: “This was a complex attack, one of the longest-distance and longest-range attacks ever to be carried out by the Israel Air Force. It required meticulous planning and preparations for a range of possible threats in the area.”
• Defence Minister Gallant said, “The fire that is now burning in Hodeida can be seen across the entire Middle East, and that has clear implications. The Houthis attacked us more than 200 times. The first time they hurt an Israeli citizen, we hit them and we will do that in every place that doing so is necessary.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu put the attack in the wider context of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” and the threat it poses both to Israel and the world: “This axis is operating not only against Israel,” he said. “It threatens the wellbeing of the entire world. And Israel expects the international community to intensify its efforts against Iran and its proxies to curb Iran’s aggression and to defend international freedom of sailing. Anyone who wants to see a stable and safe Middle East needs to stand up to Iran’s axis of evil and to support Israel’s struggle against Iran and its proxies.”
• On Sunday, the Houthis retaliated by launching multiple ballistic missiles towards the southern Israeli city of Eilat. Israel’s long-range Arrow 3 defence system intercepted one missile outside of Israeli airspace. While sirens sounded in Eilat, there were no reports on impact in the area.
• Friday’s drone attack on Tel Aviv was the latest act of Houthi aggression against Israel. In the last nine months, the Yemeni groups has fired over 220 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, mostly at Eilat.
• The attack, by an Iranian-made Samad-3 drone, killed Tel Aviv resident Yevgeny Ferder, 50, the first time an Israeli civilian had been killed by a Houthi strike. Eight others were taken to hospital with injuries. The IDF said that the drone had been tracked from Yemen to Israel but was not engaged by air defences due to human error.

Context: The Israeli attack came as a direct response to Friday’s drone attack, but this was also the first Israeli strike on Yemen since they have launched over 200 missiles and drones towards Israel since October.

• Since October 7^th, under Iranian direction the Houthis have both targeted Israel directly but also Israel-affiliated vessels in the Red Sea. Over 200 attacks have been launched on international vessels, with the disruption to international shipping significantly impacting several economies. With vessels having to divert routes, Egypt, for example, is losing a significant amount of traffic which would usually travel through the Suez Canal.
• In response to this targeting, the US and UK have attacked Houthi military infrastructure, in a bid to defend global shipping and trade. Despite US and UK efforts, Houthi attacks have persisted. There is hope that Israel targeting key infrastructure may have more of a deterrent effect.
• Unlike strikes against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in the north which focus on military targets, this operation deliberately targeted the Houthis’ port and infrastructure.
• The strike was carried out in the daytime to further highlight the Israeli decision to strike. By targeting the oil storage, it ensured the dramatic images of the fires raging were seen into the night.
• The IDF had planned for an operation of this nature for months, having simulated the requisite length of flight and refuelling over the Mediterranean. However, the quick turnaround to carry out the attack a day a half after the drone struck Tel Aviv is an impressive operational accomplishment.
• This serves to further rehabilitate the image of the IDF and send a warning to Iran over the ability to carry out complex missions 1,800km away from Israel.
• The IDF struck 10 targets, along with the oil reserves, the port was also targeted as the main site for the importing and unloading of Iranian weapons. It is possible that the targets also included weapons storage, but this has not been confirmed.
• While Israeli officials have emphasised that Israel conducted this operation on its own, it would have coordinated the flight path with allies in the region including Egypt and Saudi Arabia as they flew close to their airspace. This is the latest advantageous example of Israel being part of US CENTCOM, which aids regional coordination.
• The strike can also be perceived as a warning to Hezbollah that Lebanese state infrastructure could be targeted if escalation in the north persists.
• In the short term, the operation elicited criticism from northern residents who have been under constant attack for months and have been calling on the government to respond more forcefully. It gave the perception that a strike on Tel Aviv carries more weight than those in the north.
• Israeli officials, however, pointed out that it was the accumulative attacks emanating from the Houthis which caused Israel to take action, and that the response would have been similar if the fatality had been in Eilat or elsewhere.
• Hezbollah’s threat is of a much greater order of magnitude, and due to Lebanon’s proximity to Israel, many more factors need to be taken into consideration before Lebanese infrastructure is targeted.

Looking ahead: The Houthis have said that they intend to continue its attacks against Israel. Over the weekend, spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam tell Al Jazeera there would be “no red lines… All sensitive institutions with all… levels will be a target for us.”

• It is the Israeli hope that the damage to the port will impede the Houthis efforts to import Iranian weapons

* For coverage of the drone attack in Tel Aviv in the early hours of this morning, see Israeli Media Summary below.

ICJ: This afternoon, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague is set to deliver a nonbinding advisory opinion on the status of Israel’s military and civilian presence in east Jerusalem and the West Bank under international law.

• Evidentiary hearings were heard in February, after a 2022 UN resolution requesting the court’s opinion on the “Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem.”
• The resolution, passed by 87 votes to 26 (with 53 abstentions), asked for the court’s scope of enquiry to consider the “ongoing violation” of “the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination” and “prolonged occupation, settlement and annexation of the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967,” as well as alleged Israeli attempts to alter  “the demographic composition, character and status of the Holy City of Jerusalem.”
• The UK joined the US, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Australia in voting against the resolution. Israel felt reassured that its closest allies did not support the resolution, forming what Israel refers to as a “moral minority” of western liberal democratic states supporting it.
• The court’s February hearings were extensive, with over 50 countries giving evidence. Israel, however, opted not to cooperate with the process, arguing that it was “part of the Palestinian attempt to dictate the results of the diplomatic settlement without negotiations” – an alleged tactic often referred to as ‘lawfare’. It expressed its view that the court lacked appropriate jurisdiction in a submission to the court itself.
• At the time of the UN resolution calling for the ICJ’s opinion, Prime Minister Netanyahu said “just like the hundreds of distorted UN General Assembly resolutions against Israel over the years, today’s disgraceful resolution will not obligate the government of Israel. The Jewish people is not occupying its land and is not occupying its eternal capital Jerusalem. No UN resolution can distort this historical truth.”

Context: The ICJ is one of the UN’s principle organs. It’s opinions, though usually non-binding, often contribute to customary international law.

• The court is composed of 15 judges who are elected to by the UN General Assembly and Security Council to serve for nine-year terms.
• The court’s current president is Lebanese judge Nawaf Salam, who has a history of harsh criticism of Israel.
• In 2004, the court was requested by the UN to deliver an advisory opinion on the legality of the separation barrier between Israel and the West Bank.
• Unlike in the recent case called by South Africa, the ICJ’s advisory opinion on the current case will be non-binding.
• Critics argue that Israel’s non-participation means that the ICJ will lack the necessary factual basis required to reach an informed decision. As former Israeli Supreme Court Aharon Barak noted of the 2004 case, “in the proceedings before the ICJ, the injured parties did not participate. Israel was not party to the proceedings. There was no adversarial process, whose purpose is to establish the factual basis through a choice between contradictory factual figures. The ICJ accepted the figures in the [UN] Secretary-General’s report, and in the reports of the special rapporteurs, as objective factual figures. The burden was not cast upon the parties to the proceedings, nor was it examined.”
• Legal critics of the court’s processes have argued that it tends to rely too heavily on evidence supplied by the UN itself. These same critics have cast doubt on the reliability of this UN-supplied evidence, pointing, for example, to the international body’s general acceptance of Hamas casualty figures from the current war in Gaza.
• Of the current case, critics also note that, in the case of East Jerusalem, the will of the Palestinian population is likely to be ignored. Polling has indicated that, by a large majority, East Jerusalemites have indicated a preference for the area remaining under Israeli control.
• Unlike the West Bank, East Jerusalemites hold Israeli residence permits, giving them full freedom of movement, full rights to the benefits of Israeli citizenship, including healthcare and national insurance payments (bar the right to vote for the Knesset, unless they apply for citizenship).
• Earlier this year, in another anti-Israel motivated move, South Africa brought a case to the ICJ accusing Israel of genocide in its war in Gaza. The court accepted the case, and its full investigation could take several years.
• Israel took control of the West Bank in a defensive war in June 1967, during which time Jerusalem was also unified. The UN has generally held that this occupation was/is unlawful, pointing to the general international legal principle of the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by force.
• Critics of this view argue that this principle cannot justly be applied to territory occupied during a defensive war, and that the previous custodian of the areas – Jordan – had not right to occupy them either.
• However, multiple Israeli governments, including the Prime Minister Netanyahu in his famous Bar Ilan speech, have accepted in principle that the West Bank would form part of an independent Palestinian state under a future two state solution, with appropriate modifications made to account for Israeli settlement there and Israel’s security needs.
• The repeated failure of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to clamp down on terror and to cease incitement and inducement to commit it has led many in Israel to grow sceptical of the wisdom of such a two state solution. October 7th has only added to the view that, as presently constituted, the Palestinian national movement cannot be considered a peaceful partner to such a process.
• This week, by 68 votes to 9, the Knesset passed a declarative resolution rejecting the prospect of a two state solution. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and the Labour Party, as well as the prime minister himself, absented themselves from the Knesset chamber in order to avoid the vote.
• The resolution said that “the Knesset of Israel firmly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state west of Jordan. The establishment of a Palestinian state in the heart of the Land of Israel will pose an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens, perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and destabilise the region.”
• “It will only be a matter of a short time until Hamas takes over the Palestinian state and turns it into a radical Islamic terror base, working in coordination with the Iranian-led axis to eliminate the State of Israel,” it continued. “Promoting the idea of ​​a Palestinian state at this time will be a reward for terrorism and will only encourage Hamas and its supporters to see this as a victory, thanks to the massacre of October 7, 2023, and a prelude to the takeover of jihadist Islam in the Middle East.”
• However, the resolution should be seen as a symbolic gesture reflecting the view of the current government as well as the scepticism of Benny Gantz’s opposition faction. It is a recognition of the current fears of the majority of Israelis regarding two states, rather than a binding policy position which might impede future Israeli governments in pursuing a two state solution.

Looking ahead: The announcement is expected in The Hague at 3pm local time.

• Although Israel was not party to the proceedings, pressure will likely grow from the furthest right-wing elements in the government to punish the Palestinians for such a perceived act of lawfare. They will likely push for further unilateral actions in the West Bank, further exacerbating international criticism.
• Israeli officials are concerned over the possibility that the court will advise the UN that Israel is violating international law, and may even call on another international juridical body, the International Criminal Court, to initiate criminal proceedings against Israeli officials in the West Bank.