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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated September 16, 2024

Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders

Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders

What’s happened: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

  • In his public statement, Iran’s supreme leader, said: “we see avenging his blood our duty,” because it happened on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
  • In a memorial ceremony held in Tehran, the Ayatollah personally led the prayers, while also speaking at the ceremony, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the Israeli regime committed a ‘strategic mistake’.
  • In Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation on Wednesday evening and described the current conflict as an “existential war against a stranglehold of terrorist armies and missiles that Iran would like to tighten around our neck.”
  • Speaking of Hezbollah’s number two Shukr, Netanyahu said that he “was directly responsible for the massacre of our dear boys and girls in Majdal Shams. He was responsible for the murder of many other Israeli citizens. He was responsible for the unceasing assault against our citizens in the northern communities over nine months of war.”
  • “He was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world. The US put a $5 million bounty on his head, and for good reason. He was involved in the murder of 241 American soldiers and 58 French soldiers in Beirut in 1983. He was the main liaison between Iran and Hezbollah and he was responsible for the organisation’s missiles,” Netanyahu added.
  • Defence Minister Gallant spoke to his counterpart US Secretary of State Austin who reassured him by saying, “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again.”
  • The US has also  now deployed at least 12 warships to the region, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, amphibious assault teams and over 4,000 Marines and sailors.
  • In a further unconfirmed attack, sources are claiming that Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been killed in a targeted attack close to Damascus. Hajizadeh is understood to have been the senior commander who oversaw the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.

Context: While Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the strike in Tehran, the dual targets in Beirut and Tehran within a few hours appears to be an impressive intelligence and operational achievement for Israel.

  • Open speculation remains as to how Haniyeh was killed. Some reports suggest a missile was launched from outside Iran, while others believe the targeted killing was implemented from a closer proximity, implying operatives on the ground.
  • This is the latest targeted strike inside Iran, further exposing the gaps in the regime’s internal security.
  • As a formal guest of the Ayatollah, and staying in a ‘secure residence’ operated by the IRGC, Haniyeh’s death is seen in Iran as constituting a further psychological blow to the regime, which is likely also a factor in their consideration of response.
  • According to the Iranian warning, a response may come directly from Iran – similar to the attack in April in which 300+ drones and missiles were fired at the Israeli home front. Alternatively, the possibility exists that Iran will utilise all of the members of its Axis of Resistance – in , Iraq and Yemen – to carry out an integrated multi-theatre response.
  • Israel will be partly reassured by US Secretary Austin’s support and will hope that the regional alliance between Israel, US and regional partners, known as Middle East Air Defence (MEAD), will be as effective as thwarting the Iranian attack in April.
  • The strikes on Haniyeh and Shukr are the latest example of an Israeli tactic to target the top leadership in Hamas and Hezbollah.
    • In early January, Saleh Al-Arouri, Haniyeh’s deputy and one of the founders of the armed wing of Hamas, was killed in Beirut (although Israel did not take formal responsibility).
    • In mid-July, a strike in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing.  The confirmation of his death was formally recognised by Israel this morning.
    • In March, Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy was killed.
    • In April, an airstrike in Damascus killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in , Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.
  • Haniyeh, who has been Hamas’ political leader since 2017, is the highest -profile member of the group to be killed following the October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza.
  • On October 7th he was recorded praying in celebration of the attacks, and called on West Bank Palestinians to join the battle.
  • Today is the 300th day since October 7th, with 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. Inside Israel, hostage families and their supporters continue their campaign to pressure the government to move forward with the deal.
  • According to Prime Minister Netanyahu the extended military campaign serves to increase the pressure on Hamas and to support Israel in the negotiations. Others are concerned Haniyeh’s death makes a deal harder to conclude.
  • In parallel, IDF troops are continuing operational activity in Gaza.
    • In the Rafah area troops are currently operating in the area of Tel al-Sultan, where they dismantled a structure rigged with explosives that was used by Hamas terrorists.
    • In the area of Khan Yunis, launchers loaded with rockets and aimed toward Israeli territory were struck by the IDF.

Looking ahead: Following the memorial ceremony in Tehran, Haniyeh’s body will be flown to Doha for a formal burial.

  • An Iranian response is anticipated in the coming days with Israel on a peak state of alert preparing for any scenario. Israel’s air defences are on maximum alert, the air force jets patrolling the skies and ground forces on heightened vigilance along all the borders.
  • The head of Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said, “The Israeli Air Force defends and operates in all arenas of the war, enveloping the State of Israel with dozens of aircraft, manned and unmanned, ready and prepared within minutes for any scenario, in any arena. We will act against anyone planning to harm the citizens of the State of Israel, there Is nowhere that is too far for us to strike”
  • So far the Israel’s Home Front command has not yet given any further instructions to the Israeli civilian population.

July 31, 2024

Senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders assassinated

What’s happened: The IDF has confirmed it conducted a strike on Hezbollah number two Fuad Shukr last night, while Hamas have confirmed that its overseas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in the early hours of this morning.

In Beirut: First, in southern Beirut at around 7.40pm yesterday, high-ranking Hezbollah official Shukr was killed in an air strike in the city’s Dahiya Quarter.

  • IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: “This evening, the IDF carried out a pinpoint attack in Beirut and killed Fuad Shukr, also known as Said Mohsin, the most senior commander in the Hezbollah terrorist organisation and the head of its strategic array. Mohsin also served as the right-hand man and adviser on the planning and prosecution of the war to Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.”
  • It is thought that the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate successfully located Shukr in an eight-story apartment building, advising the Israeli Air Force of his whereabouts and of the opportunity for a strike. Lebanese media reported three killed in the attack, including two children, and at least 74 injured.

In Tehran: Later, at 2.00am local time, the head of Hamas’s Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in the Iranian capital, seemingly by a precision-guided missile fired directly through the window of the apartment in the military veterans building in which he was staying while attending the newly-elected Iranian president’s swearing-in ceremony.

  • Unlike the strike on Shukr, Israel is yet to comment on the assassination of Haniyeh. Hamas, confirming Haniyeh’s death, said he had been killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike…” The office of the Palestinian President Abbas, whose Fatah faction is a rival to Hamas, said he “strongly condemned the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, deeming it a cowardly act and a serious escalation.”
  • The New York Times reports this morning, citing two senior Iranian officials, that Iran was holding an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council in response to Haniyeh’s assassination.
  • Iranian sources are also briefing that the missile which killed Haniyeh was fired from outside of Iran.

Context: Both assassinations are indicative of Israel’s ability to locate and strike Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. They testify to the sophistication of Israel’s intelligence and its ability to conduct precision strikes.

  • Shukr was targeted for being ultimately responsible for Saturday’s Hezbollah rocket strike on Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, which killed 12 children and injured 40 others. A Hezbollah veteran of over 40 years, Shukr was also thought to have played a key role in the 1983 bombing of the US Marine Corps Barracks in Beirut which killed 241 US military personnel and wounded 128 others.
  • In recent years, as head of Hezbollah’s Strategic Unit, Shukr had assumed responsibility for Hezbollah’s weapons programme, including the procurement of precise-guided missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, long-range rockets, and UAVs.
  • Yediot Ahronot’s Ronen Bergman, quotes a high-ranking Israel official saying of Shukr, “He is Nasrallah’s secret-bearer and the person responsible for the organization’s military buildup. After Mustafa Badreddine’s death, he took some of his powers and his standing became stronger. He was considered to have very close relations with Quds Force officials in the Revolutionary Guard, and… will be perceived by the Iranians as a major loss. He is considered to be intelligent and judicious, a man in the shadows who operated professionally and over a very long period of time.”
  • Israeli media also quotes Muhammad Ali Al-Husseini, secretary-general of the Islamic Arab Council in Lebanon, saying that Fuad Shukr had been the most important operational figure in Hezbollah. He said that in terms of hierarchy, Fuad Shukr had been number one, even before Nasrallah, on the security and operational level.
  • During the over nine months of escalated conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, strikes on the Lebanese capital have been rare. The strike on the Shukr was the first since a January strike killed Hamas’s deputy leader abroad Saleh al-Arouri.
  • Earlier this week, the Israeli Security Cabinet empowered Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant to decide on Israel’s response to the Majdal Shams attack, enabling quick decision-making and maintaining the element of surprise.
  • Israel is thought to have advised Washington of the strike in advance. US State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel later said that “we’re continuing to work toward a diplomatic resolution that would allow Israeli and Lebanese civilians to return to their homes and live in peace and security. We certainly want to avoid any kind of escalation.”
  • Patel reiterated that US support for Israel remained “ironclad”, that “Israel has every right to defend itself”, and “certainly faces threats like no other country does in that region of the world.”
  • For fuller context and background on Hezbollah, the scale of the threat it poses, its ideology, history, and place within the Iranian axis, see BICOM’s recent briefing paper.
  • For Israel – in particular the Mossad – to have the local intelligence in Tehran to have been able to locate the exact room in which Haniyeh was staying represents a spectacular success. It speaks to the sophistication of Mossad’s penetration of Iran, while the precision required to target him through his apartment window speaks to the sophistication and precision Israel is able to call upon for such targeted assassinations.
  • It is also important that Israel chose to act in a relatively narrow moment of opportunity while Haniyeh was away from his Qatari base. It is to be assumed that Israel would also have possessed the intelligence and operational capacity to strike Haniyeh in Qatar. However, such an assassination would have been likely ruled out due to its likely impact on Israel-US relations, and to Qatar’s dual status as a backer and host of Hamas, on the one hand, and a mediator on the question of the hostages, on the other.
  • Haniyeh is the most senior Hamas official killed since the star of the war in Gaza. He had been based in Qatar since replacing Khaled Mashal (himself the previous subject of an unsuccessful Israeli assassination attempt) in 2017. There, Haniyeh had been the most senior of Hamas’s overseas leadership – distinct from the local Gazan leadership headed by October 7th mastermind Yahya Sinwar. Three of Haniyeh’s sons and four of his grandchildren were killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza in April.
  • Considered a relative pragmatist within Hamas, Haniyeh was a key figure in coordinating the Sunni Hamas’s relations with the Iranian Shiite axis.
  • The assassinations serve as a further warning to the rest of the Hezbollah and Hamas leaderships that they may well be future targets. Over the last nine months, Israel has conducted several targeted assassinations, including Hamas’s Gazan number two Mohamed Deifal-Arouri, and senior IRGC officer Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Looking ahead: While Israel will brace for a possible response from Hezbollah, the IDF confirmed that “there are no changes in the Home Front Command defensive guidelines. The IDF is currently conducting a situational assessment. If any changes will be made, an update will be released on the IDF and Home Front Command’s platforms.”

July 31, 2024

The Hezbollah Threat

Israel is weighing its response to Hezbollah’s August 27th rocket attack on Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, which claimed the lives of 12 children and wounded 40 others.

The attack was the deadliest in over nine months of escalated conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, since the Iran-backed terror group joined Hamas’s fight against Israel on October 8th, 2023.

This BICOM paper analyses the overall severity of the threat posed to Israel by Hezbollah, and provides essential context on its military capacity, ideology, history, and place within the Iranian ‘Axis of Resistance’.

July 29, 2024

Israel considers response to deadly Hezbollah attack on Golan Heights

What’s happened: Israelis are bracing for a significant escalation in the north, following Saturday’s deadly Hezbollah strike on a football field in the Golan Heights which killed 12 children.

  • The rocket attack, which also left 40 injured, targeted the Majdal Shams community late Saturday afternoon. Despite Hezbollah denials of responsibility, the IDF concluded that the attack was carried out by the Iranian-backed group, using an Iranian Falaq-1 rocket with a warhead of over 110 pounds of explosives, fired from southeastern Lebanon.
  • The US echoed Israel’s attribution of the attack to Hezbollah, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson saying “it was their rocket, and launched from an area they control… Our support for Israel’s security is ironclad,” Watson added, “and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Hezbollah,”  which, “started firing at Israel on October 8, claiming solidarity with Hamas, another terror organisation in Iran’s so-called ‘Axis of Resistance.’”
  • UK Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that it was “especially horrific that the target was children playing football. Our hearts go to all the families of all of those who were killed or injured, and to the entire Druze population.” Condemnations of Hezbollah also followed from other western allies, including Germany, France, and Canada.
  • The 12 fatalities were all aged between 10 and 20 and all from the Druze community. They were: Ameer Rabeea Abu Saleh, 16, Iseel Nasha’at Ayoub, 12, Hazem Akram Abu Saleh, 15, Milad Muadad Alsha’ar, 10, Alma Ayman Fakher Eldin, 11, Naji Taher Alhalabi, 11, Johnny Wadeea Ibrahim, 13, Yazan Nayeif Abu Saleh, 12, Fajer Laith Abu Saleh, 16, Vinees Adham Alsafadi, 11 Nathem Fakher Saeb, 16, and Jifara Ibrahim, 11.
  • The Saleh family lost four brothers in the attack.
  • Of the injured, two children remain in critical condition, and one in moderate condition. All have sustained abdominal injuries, chest injuries, and limb fractures.
  • Israeli leaders swiftly promised a firm response. “I can say that the State of Israel will not allow this incident to pass quietly. We are not going to go about business as usual,” said Prime Minister Netanyahu.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said, “this incident will lead to a very, very significant response. We’re going to hit Hezbollah hard; we’re going to take Hezbollah back in time. We’re going to bring the families back to their homes in the north safely.”
  • The Foreign Ministry said Hezbollah had “crossed all red lines” with the attack. “This is not an army fighting another army, rather it is a terrorist organisation deliberately shooting at civilians.”
  • Netanyahu cut short his visit to the US to return to Israel. The security cabinet then met yesterday afternoon to discuss Israel’s response, and authorised Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant to decide on the “manner and timing” of Israel’s retaliation. Far-right ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who have repeatedly and loudly called for tougher Israeli policy on all fronts, abstained from the vote.
  • Speaking in Tokyo, US Secretary of State Blinken “emphasize[d] (Israel’s) right to defend its citizens and our determination to make sure that they’re able to do that,” while adding that “we also don’t want to see the conflict escalate. We don’t want to see it spread. It’s so important that we help defuse that conflict, not only prevent it from escalating, prevent it from spreading, but to defuse it because you have so many people in both countries, in both Israel and Lebanon, who’ve been displaced from their homes.”
  • Limited Israeli responses against Hezbollah operatives have already begun. Reports this morning claim that two died and three were injured in an Israeli drone strike outside the southern Lebanese town of Shaqra. In a separate attack, one person was killed and four wounded in Israeli airstrikes on a car and motorcycle driving between the towns of Mays al-Jabal and Shaqra in southern Lebanon.
  • Lebanese and Palestinian sources also reported heavy shelling in the town of Houla this morning. The IDF also shot down a drone which crossed into the Western Galilee from Lebanon. The intrusion prompted alarms in Yaara and Adamit, Israeli towns near the Lebanese border.
  • In a further statement of intent, earlier on Saturday, Hezbollah also launched a drone towards Israel’s Karish offshore natural gas platforms. The drone was intercepted by the Israeli Navy’s Saar 6 missile boat, but the attack served as a warning that Hezbollah has the capacity to launch more precise weapons to target Israeli energy infrastructure.

Context: The attack on Saturday was the deadliest strike on civilians carried out by Hezbollah since the Second Lebanon War, and the greatest loss of civilians on the Israeli side since October 7th.

  • The initial Hezbollah denial is likely a result of their embarrassment at killing Druze children and an awareness that they have significantly escalated the simmering conflict by striking civilians. It appears likely that Hezbollah fired heavy but inaccurate rockets aimed at the IDF base on Mount Hermon, situated above Majdal Shams, and that one of the rockets overshot its intended target, causing devastation.
  • Sirens were sounded in the community, but due to the close proximity and a matter of seconds there was no time to reach a protected space.
  • The Druze of the Golan have a complicated relationship with the State of Israel. Taken over in the 1967 Six Day War, many held onto their Syrian identity despite Israel formally extending its laws, jurisdiction and administration to the Golan Heights in 1981.
  • Druze of the Golan have the option of applying for Israeli citizenship, many more have done so in the last decade and half after observing at close quarters the regime violence during the Syrian civil war.
  • The attack in Majdal Shams will also raise tension inside Lebanon and , which both hold significant Druze communities and place Hezbollah in a difficult domestic predicament.
  • Druze are traditionally loyal to their home country, hence residual loyalty of some Golan Druze to , whilst  many of their Druze brethren in the Galilee proudly serve in the IDF and are fully integrated into Israeli society.
  • The Israeli security cabinet decision to empower the prime minister and defence minister to decide on the Israeli response serves two purposes; it cuts the need to reconvene the cabinet, thereby adding to the element of surprise. Secondly, it excludes the more extreme government ministers from the decision-making process.
  • Despite significant damage, Hezbollah attacks and Israeli responses have been carefully weighted, with both sides understanding the ‘rules of the game’, whereby fatal strikes are reciprocated but with an emphasis on avoiding the escalation to all-out war.

Looking ahead: In calibrating its response, Israel will need to carefully calibrate between a forceful response which underlines that attacks of this kind cannot go unanswered, with a desire to prevent further escalation.

  • Among the possible responses being considered are:
    • Targeting a strategic Hezbollah site: a weapons depot or military infrastructure;
    • A strike on Lebanese civilian infrastructure, such as an energy depot or transport hub. An attack of this nature would serve the purpose of prompting the Lebanese government to act to restrain Hezbollah. However, it also runs the risk of uniting Lebanon’s various communities behind Hezbollah.
    • An attack on Hezbollah sites in Beirut which, with the exception of the targeted strike on Hamas leader al-Arouri in January, have largely been avoided.
    • Targeted assassinations of senior Hezbollah figures.

July 26, 2024

Hostage families more optimistic after meeting with Biden and Netanyahu

Hostage families more optimistic after meeting with Biden and Netanyahu

What’s happened: Following his speech to Congress on Wednesday evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu continued his US trip yesterday by meeting with President Biden, Vice-President Harris, and other US officials.

  • Biden and Netanyahu met for an hour and half, devoted largely to the hostage deal, before being joined by hostage families. Netanyahu then left to meet with Harris, while the families remained in conversation with Biden.
  • The White House said that Biden relayed to Netanyahu “the need to close the remaining gaps” on a hostage deal, in order to enable “a durable end to the war in Gaza”.
  • Biden also “reaffirmed the US ironclad commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis,” while expressing concern over “the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the need to remove any obstacles to the flow of aid and restoring basic services for those in need and the critical importance of protecting civilian lives during military operations.”
  • Netanyahu and Harris then met for 40 minutes, after which Harris stated that they had had a “frank and constructive” discussion, and that “there has been hopeful movement” on a hostage deal.
  • Afterwards, Harris similarly reinforced her own “ironclad support” and “unwavering commitment” to Israel, before making clear her “serious concern about the dire humanitarian situation there with over two million people are facing high levels of food insecurity,” she said.
  • “What has happened in Gaza over the past nine months is devastating. The images of dead children and desperate hungry people fleeing for safety — sometimes displaced for the second, third or fourth time. We cannot look away in the face of these tragedies. We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering and I will not be silent.”
  • Hostage families emerged from their meetings with Biden and Netanyahu cautiously optimistic on the chances of a deal. “After asking a series of difficult questions and getting answers to all of them… we feel probably more optimistic than we have since the first round of releases in late November,” hostage Sagui Dekel-Chen’s father Jonathan said.
  • Adi Alexander, father of hostage Idan Alexander said the families had asked Netanyahu if he had added new conditions to the proposal to Hamas, to which the prime minister replied “no”.
  • Alexander also said that Biden had said “he will turn entirely over the next half-year to solving this problem, and that he is basically free of all political pressure. He feels great physically, and he’ll do all he can to make progress on this issue.”
  • In parallel to Netanyahu’s visit, IDF troops have continued operational activity in Gaza in the areas of Khan Younis, Rafah and the central Strip, where they targeted Hamas fighters and terrorist infrastructure.
  • Once again, the IDF presented further evidence of Hamas operating out of UNRWA facilities, even from inside the declared humanitarian zone. Yesterday, Hamas fired rockets which failed, resulting in two Palestinian deaths and multiple injuries. Following the recovery earlier this week of five hostage bodies, the IDF confirmed that they had been found in a tunnel, also in the humanitarian zone.

Context: Yesterday’s meetings followed Netanyahu’s speech to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday evening, in which the prime minister aimed to rebuild bipartisan support for the Israel-US relationship. (For more, see BICOM’s Morning Brief.)

  • As part of that charm offensive, Netanyahu was careful to express his appreciation of Biden’s steadfast support of Israel on October 7th; his moving of two US aircraft carriers into the Mediterranean as a force projection against Hezbollah intent; his powerful visit to Israel shortly after; and his leadership of a multi-force coalition – including British and Jordanian involvement – which protected Israel from direct Iranian attack on April 14th.
  • Netanyahu echoed this praise yesterday, saying “Mr. President, we’ve known each other for 40 years… I want to thank you for 50 years of public service and 50 years of support for the State of Israel. I look forward to discussing with you today and working with you in the months ahead on the great issues before us.”
  • Prior to her meeting with Netanyahu, Harris put out a strong statement condemning the actions of pro-Palestinian protesters in Washington the day before. Harris called them “despicable acts by unpatriotic protestors and dangerous hate-fuelled rhetoric,” and condemned “any individuals associating with the brutal terrorist organisation Hamas, which has vowed to annihilate the State of Israel and kill Jews. Pro-Hamas graffiti and rhetoric is abhorrent and we must not tolerate it in our nation.”
  • Harris’s unequivocal condemnation of Hamas echoed a statement earlier in the week from State Department official Matthew Miller, who said, “Hamas has not renounced terrorism; it has not renounced the use of violence to achieve its political aims… there’s no one that has brought more pain and suffering to the people in Gaza than Hamas through their decisions.”
  • Hostage negotiations have continued over recent weeks, under the broad framework of what became known as the “Biden proposal”, despite its originating in Israel. Some of the unresolved issues have included:
    • Hamas’s demands that Israel vacate the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt. Israel has maintained that some kind of presence in the corridor is essential to prevent the resumption of weapons smuggling into Gaza through Egypt.
    • Israel’s need for mechanisms to be in place to prevent Hamas fighters moving north along with the civilian population.
    • Israel’s insistence on a veto regarding the release of certain ‘heavyweight’ Palestinian prisoners.
    • Israel’s insistence on receiving a list of names of the hostages to be released by Hamas.
  • It is highly likely that Hamas will instinctively resist the solutions Israeli delegates will propose on these issues. However, there is hope that the combination of the pressure Israel has brought to bear on the organisation through its military campaign and diplomatic pressure led by the US, along with Qatar and Egypt will persuade Hamas leaders that this is the best deal it can expect.
  • Ahead of his meeting with Netanyahu later today, former President and current Republican candidate Trump spoke to Fox News yesterday. He said of the war that if he was elected he would want Netanyahu to “finish up, and get it done quickly.”
  • Jon Polin, father of hostage Hersh, pointed to the unanimity across the US political spectrum on the need to secure a deal now. “This is a special moment,” he said, “in which President Biden, Vice President Harris and Trump — anyone who could be president — are aligned in the statement that there must be a deal now.”

Looking ahead: Netanyahu is set to meet with former President and current Republican candidate Trump today.

  • Following the meeting between Netanyahu and Biden, a final text of the Israeli outline for a hostage deal is expected to be handed to Israeli negotiators. Mossad Director Barnea will then travel for talks aimed at finalising a deal, where it is anticipated he will be joined by CIA Director Burns.
  • Following recent reports of a China-brokered reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, State Department official Miller also ruled out US support for Hamas playing any future role in Palestinian governance. “There can’t be a role for a terrorist organisation,” he said.

July 26, 2024

Netanyahu addresses Congress, as bodies of five hostages retrieved

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu last night addressed a joint session of the US Congress for the fourth time.

  • In a speech which drew regular and effusive applause from those in attendance, Netanyahu praised both Presidents Biden and Trump and positioned Israel’s fight against Iran as a fight on behalf of the US and western liberal democracy.
  • “We meet today at a crossroads of history,” Netanyahu said, in opening. “Our world is in upheaval. In the Middle East, Iran’s axis of terror confronts America, Israel and our Arab friends. This is not a clash of civilisations. It’s a clash between barbarism and civilisation. It’s a clash between those who glorify death and those who sanctify life.”
  • Stressing the close relationship and shared interests of Israel and the US, the prime minister said “for the forces of civilisation to triumph, America and Israel must stand together. Because when we stand together, something very simple happens. We win. They lose.”
  • Recalling the horror of October 7th and the ongoing anguish of hostage families and hostages no longer in captivity, Netanyahu pointed to both Noa Argamani, freed from captivity in an IDF operation in June, and Eliyahu Bibas, grandfather of Ariel and Kfir, kidnapped on October 7th and who remain hostage.
  • Netanyahu paid tribute to President Biden, “for his tireless efforts on behalf of the hostages and for his efforts to the hostage families as well. I thank President Biden for his heartful support for Israel after the savage attack on October 7th. He rightly called Hamas ‘sheer evil.’ He dispatched two aircraft carriers to the Middle East to deter a wider war. And he came to Israel to stand with us during our darkest hour, a visit that will never be forgotten.”
  • “President Biden and I have known each other for over forty years. I want to thank him for half a century of friendship to Israel and for being, as he says, a proud Zionist.”
  • Netanyahu also saluted the courage of four Israeli soldiers present:
    • Lieutenant Avichail Reuven, whose “family immigrated to Israel from Ethiopia. In the early hours of October 7th, Avichail heard the news of Hamas’ bloody rampage. He put on his uniform, grabbed his rifle, but he didn’t have a car. So he ran eight miles to the frontlines of Gaza to defend his people… came to the frontlines, killed many terrorists and saved many, many lives. Avichail, we all honour your remarkable heroism.”
    • Master Sergeant Ashraf al Bahiri, “a Bedouin soldier from the Israeli Muslim community of Rahat. On October 7th, Ashraf too killed many terrorists. First, he defended his comrades in the military base, and he then rushed to defend the neighbouring communities, including the devastated community of Kibbutz Be’eri. Like Ashraf, the Muslim soldiers of the IDF fought alongside their Jewish, Druze, Christian and other comrades in arms with tremendous bravery.”
    • Lieutenant Asa Sofer,  who fought as an officer in the tank corps, and “was wounded in battle while protecting his fellow soldiers from a grenade. He lost his right arm and the vision in his left eye. He’s recovering, and incredibly, within a short time, Asa will soon return to active duty as a commander of a tank company.”
    • Lieutenant Yonatan, Jonathan Ben Hamo, “who lost a leg in Gaza and continued to fight.”
  • Netanyahu also hit out at anti-Israel protesters in the US – those who, he said, “refuse to make the simple distinction between those who target terrorists and those who target civilians.”
  • Iran, he said, was funding some of the protests. “I have a message for these protesters: When the tyrants of Tehran, who hang gays from cranes and murder women for not covering their hair, are praising, promoting and funding you, you have officially become Iran’s useful idiots.”
  • Netanyahu then criticised the International Criminal Court, claiming that, contrary to its allegations, Israel has sought to protect the Gazan population as much as possible within the confines of urban warfare. “For Israel, every civilian death is a tragedy,” he said. “For Hamas, it’s a strategy. They actually want Palestinian civilians to die, so that Israel will be smeared in the international media and be pressured to end the war before it’s won.”
  • Netanyahu also pointed to what he said was an unprecedentedly low ratio of civilians to combatants killed in Rafah during Israel’s recent operations there.
  • The prime minister then turned to Iran, positioning the Islamic Republic as an enemy of the US to an even greater extent than it is an enemy of Israel. “Ask yourself,” he said, “which country ultimately stands in the way of Iran’s maniacal plans to impose radical Islam on the world? And the answer is clear: It’s America, the guardian of Western civilisation and the world’s greatest power. That’s why Iran sees America as its greatest enemy.”
  • Against such a threat, Netanyahu championed an alliance he saw as emerging on April 14th this year, when Israel, the US, and the UK, along with regional Arab partners, joined forces in thwarting direct Iranian attacks on Israel.
  • Post-war, he said, Israel would have to retain security control of the Strip, while “Gaza should have a civilian administration run by Palestinians who do not seek to destroy Israel… It’s a fundamental thing that we have a right to demand and to receive.”
  • He pointed to a potential deepening of the Abraham Accords, a process for which he thanked former President Trump.
  • In parallel, last night the IDF announced the recovery of the bodies of five Israeli hostages kidnapped on October 7th:
    • Maya Goren, a 56-year-old mother of four from Nir Oz,  who was murdered in the kindergarten where she worked as a teacher. Her husband, Avner, was also murdered.
    • Ravid Katz, a resident of Nir Oz, who first made sure his wife and four-month-old were safe with neighbours, before joining the kibbutz security team in the fight.
    • Oren Goldin, a 33-year-old father of two, who was murdered while fighting in his capacity as a member of the security squad in Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak.
    • Staff Sgt. Tomer Yaakov Ahimas and Sgt. Kiril Brodski, who were both killed on October 7th in the battle for Kibbutz Nirim.

Context: Netanyahu’s speech was primarily aimed at rebuilding bipartisan support for the Israel-US relationship. He was careful to give equal thanks and credit to both President Biden and former President Trump.

  • At a time when relations with the Biden administration have become strained over the conduct of the war in Gaza, Netanyahu sought to position Israel as being on the frontline of a wider conflict between Iran and the forces of Islamist extremism and the US and its regional allies.
  • A significant number of Democrats boycotted or otherwise did not attend the speech, including Vice-President and presumptive presidential nominee Kamal Harris, who cited a previous engagement.
  • Protests also accompanied Netanyahu in the streets of Washington, both from pro-Palestinian activists and from those allies of the hostages and their families who argue that Netanyahu has not done enough to prioritise the hostages safe return. Several hostage family members were removed from Congress for protesting Netanyahu.
  • Many had hoped that the prime minister would use his speech to announce that a hostage deal had been secured. In contrast, the Israeli delegation to the latest negotiations was ordered to delay its departure for Qatar until Netanyahu had been able to meet with President Biden, scheduled for today.
  • In Israel, reaction was predictably divided, with many noting that speeches like this present Netanyahu at his best: addressing a western audience, in English, and presenting the case for Israel’s fight with the Iranian axis – which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis – as a fight for western liberal democracy. Others, however, criticised the prime minister for failing to take responsibility for the failures which led to October 7th, and for not placing a higher priority on a hostage deal.
  • Netanyahu laid out his vision for “the demilitarisation and deradicalisation of Gaza,” which “can also lead to a future of security, prosperity and peace. That’s my vision for Gaza.”
  • This post-war vision was criticised by opposition leader Yair Lapid for not being more precise. Lapid said “he had an opportunity to present a ‘day-after’ plan that has some sort of connection to reality. He didn’t do that. He had an opportunity to gain all of Congress’s support for the residents of the north and against Hezbollah. He didn’t do that.”
  • Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is captive in Gaza, also criticised Netanyahu for not having “placed the hostages as the highest priority, proving what Zionism and love for Israel is.”
  • Zangauker said Netanyahu should have said, “I announce on this stage that I will work to promote a deal that will return all the hostages, even if the price is ending the war. I will work in full cooperation with the mediators, I will dismiss any minister who speaks out against the deal.”
  • The retrieval of the bodies of the five hostages leaves 115 hostages remaining in captivity for 292 days. The official Israeli count is 42 of the 115 are no longer alive. According to former member of the inner war cabinet Benny Gantz, speaking yesterday, a quarter of the dead have been killed during the last two months, after the failure of the last hostage proposal.

Looking ahead: Netanyahu will remain in the US for meetings with President Biden, former President Trump, and Vice-President Harris.

  • In his private meeting with Biden, Netanyahu is expected to firm up support for Israel’s negotiating positions, with the hope that US influence will in turn help persuade Qatar and Egypt to exert further pressure on Hamas.

July 24, 2024

China hosts Palestinian factions for unity talks

What’s happened: Chinese media is reporting that an interim reconciliation agreement has been signed between Hamas and Fatah, following Beijing-brokered talks.

  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk, Fatah official Mahmud al-Aloul, and representative from 12 other Palestinian groups. Yi said the parties had agreed to establish an “interim national reconciliation government” to govern postwar Gaza.
  • Abu Marzouk said, “Today we sign an agreement for national unity and we say that the path to completing this journey is national unity. We are committed to national unity and we call for it.”
  • In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Katz criticised Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah for moving towards reconciliation with Hamas. “Instead of rejecting terrorism,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “Mahmoud Abbas embraces the murderers and rapists of Hamas, revealing his true face.”
  • “In reality, this won’t happen because Hamas’s rule will be crushed, and Abbas will be watching Gaza from afar. Israel’s security will remain solely in Israel’s hands.”
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad issued its own statement on the talks, saying it “rejects any formula that includes recognition of Israel explicitly or implicitly” and that it had “demanded the withdrawal of the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s [ie Fatah’s] recognition of Israel.”
  • Meanwhile, two senior terrorists were among several Palestinian killed by an Israeli drone strike and in further clashes in the West Bank city of Tulkarem yesterday.
  • The IDF named the two as Ashraf Nafeh, the head of Hamas in Tulkarem, and Muhammad Awad, the head of the Fatah-linked al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades in Tulkarem. The IDF said Nafeh was “responsible for manufacturing and embedding explosives intended to attack IDF soldiers, as well as recruiting new operatives into the Hamas organisation. Additionally, he was involved in numerous attacks against IDF soldiers in Judea and Samaria, and was in contact with external Hamas terrorists who advanced terror attacks in Judea and Samaria.”
  • Awad, the IDF said, “was actively involved in shooting attacks against IDF soldiers. In addition, he raised terror funds to support the battalion’s activity in the area, and procured weaponry for the battalion.”
  • Israeli military sources also said a female Palestinian combatant was killed after brandishing a weapon whilst wearing clothing marked “medical service”.
  • Also yesterday, two Israeli Defence Ministry employees were lightly wounded when a bomb exploded at the security barrier in the Mount Gilboa area.
  • The Shin Bet also announced on Monday that it had foiled a plot by a West Bank terror cell to kidnap Israelis. This followed the intelligence service revealing on Sunday that it had also thwarted a plan by Palestinian university students to launch a shooting attack on Israelis in the West Bank.
  • In Gaza, the IDF has continued its operations in Khan Younis. Ahead of the operation, the IDF called on Gazan civilians to temporarily evacuate from specific areas of Khan Younis.
  • According to the IDF, this was based on “intelligence indicating that terrorists were operating and firing rockets in these areas, as well as efforts by Hamas to reassemble its forces there.”
  • IDF activity includes operations  above and below ground, with the IDF confirming they have “eliminated several terrorists”.

Context: Hamas and Fatah have been divided, and the Palestinian national movement split, since elections in 2006 and a bloody civil war in 2007 left Hamas in power in Gaza and the Fatah Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority (PA) in control in parts of the West Bank.

  • Although notable, this provisional accord, if confirmed, should not yet be considered final. Seeming unification accords between Hamas and Fatah have ultimately come to nought in recent years. Ongoing tensions between the two parties was illustrated again recently when Abbas responded to the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Mohammed Deif by blaming Hamas for the sufferings of the Gazan people during the war.
  • Fatah officials highlight that Hamas are coming to the talks at its weakest point due to the losses it has taken in Gaza. Israeli media cites Fatah officials playing down reports of an agreement, saying that the joint statement was mainly intended as a show of respect to their Chinese hosts.
  • The US has long pushed for the PA to assume a leading role in the post-war governance of the Strip. Even before these moves towards reconciliation, Prime Minister Netanyahu has been publicly resistant to such moves, citing the PA’s ongoing incitement of terror and financial support of terrorists, known as ‘pay for slay’.
  • Katz’s comment that “Abbas will be watching Gaza from afar” is a reaffirmation of this position, and a reflection of sections of the Israel right’s desire for Israel to retain control of the Strip post-Hamas.
  • The US has also been clear that Hamas cannot be part of the future governance of Gaza, and with US financial and diplomatic support essential for the reconstruction of the devastated Strip, any governance structure including Hamas would likely have serious implications for US support.
  • China’s brokering and hosting of reconciliation talks reflects Beijing’s increasing diplomatic assertiveness and desire to insert itself as a major player in the region. It follows, for example, its 2023 brokering of peace talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
  • The IDF said that its Tulkarem operation was one of 50 it has carried out in the West Bank over the past nine months. Some 4,400 Palestinian have been arrested, including some 1,850 affiliated with Hamas. The Palestinian Health Authority lists more than 560 Palestinians killed in the West Bank in that time, with Israel saying the majority were combatants killed during raids. 27 Israelis have been killed in that time, either from terror attacks or during clashes in the West Bank.
  • Since October 7th, many have warned that the PA’s increasing lack of control in the West Bank could lead to a major conflagration. Thus far, despite the IDF’s need to conduct regular counter-terror raids, this has not come to pass. The PA, along with Washington, have repeatedly complained that Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich’s withholding of tax revenues collected on its behalf by Israel has exacerbated its own security services lack of control. The period has also seen a surge in violence from Israeli settlers towards West Bank Palestinians.

Looking ahead: Israel has reportedly reached agreement with the UAE and the World Health Organisation to facilitate the evacuation of 250 sick and wounded Gazans for medical treatment in the Emirates next week.

  • The Israeli hostage negotiation delegation is expected to leave tonight for Egypt for further talks, with its latest proposal likely to be floated tomorrow.

July 23, 2024

Hostage talks enter crucial phase as Netanyahu arrives in US

Netanyahu in the US: Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in the US yesterday, ahead of his address to Congress tomorrow.

  • Before his departure, Netanyahu told reports he was leaving “at a time when Israel is fighting on seven fronts… I will seek to anchor the bipartisan support that is so important for Israel,” he continued. “And I will tell my friends on both sides of the aisle that regardless who the American people choose as their next President, Israel remains America’s indispensable and strong ally in the Middle East.”
  • On arrival, Netanyahu met with hostage families, alongside his wife Sara and Israeli government representative on hostages Gal Hirsch.
  • Of the pursuit of a hostage deal, Netanyahu said “We are determined to get everyone back. The conditions for getting them back are ripening thanks to the simple reason that we are exerting very-very strong  pressure on Hamas. We’ve seen a certain change, and I think that change will gradually increase… Regarding a deal, the conditions are gradually ripening, without doubt. That is a good sign, and the other sign that we have seen is that the enemy’s spirit is beginning to break.”
  • Israel negotiators have been continuing lengthy and intense negotiations with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. A formal Israeli proposal is set to be delivered in Qatar on Thursday.
  • The IDF also announced yesterday that two more hostages, Alex Dancyg and Yagev Buchshtab, are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas. The circumstances of their death in Hamas captivity are being investigated. Yagev Buchshtab was a 34-year-old from Kibbutz Nirim. He was abducted together with his wife, Rimon, who was released in November as part of the first hostage release agreement. Dancyg, was 75, from Nir Oz. Born in Poland, he was a renowned Holocaust educator at Yad Vashem.

Gaza Strip:  The IDF continues to operate in various parts of the Gaza Strip, including in Khan Yunis and Rafah

  • The IDF deemed it necessary to return to Khan Younis to thwart Hamas efforts to reconstitute some of their fighting capacity. On Monday night, two additional IDF brigades were sent to the city. Tanks entered the eastern part of the city, after first informing local residents on the eastern edges of the humanitarian zone to leave and to head further to the west. The IDF reports that over 30 terrorist targets have since been attacked in Khan Younis.
  • In the Rafah area, according to the IDF they continue their “precise, intelligence-based operational activity.” This includes killing “dozens of terrorists in close-quarters encounters, with support from the IAF.”
  • This included Muhammad Abu Seidu, “a Nukhba terrorist who participated in the invasion into Israel on October 7th and directed multiple attacks against IDF troops in the Gaza Strip.”
  • Also in central Gaza, the IDF confirmed that “over the past day, the forces have eliminated numerous terrorists.” In addition, the Israeli Air Force “struck approximately 35 targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military structures, terrorists and other terror infrastructure sites.”
  • In Rafah, the IDF announced that the Nahal Brigade who have been operating there for about two months have, “eliminated over 150 terrorists who posed a threat to the troops and located approximately 400 different weapons.” Operating in four separate sectors:
    • “In the south of the ‘Brazil’ area, the troops destroyed a significant underground tunnel route hundreds of metres long that included several floors and levels.”
    • “In the north of the ‘Yibna’ refugee camp, the troops carried out a targeted operation during which they eliminated terrorists and located weapon storage facilities in the area.”
    • “In the centre of the ‘Brazil’ area and the ‘Alshaboura’ refugee camp, the troops deepened the operational achievement and located: workshops both above and below the ground, rockets in sensitive locations and tunnel shafts leading to terror tunnels.”
    • “In their most recent operation, the troops raided a school near the humanitarian route where armed terrorists who tried to take over the route were entrenched… In the school yard, they located an operational tunnel shaft used by the terrorists.”
  • On the Gaza periphery, there was an attempted stabbing attack on Monday at the entrance of Netiv Haasara. The assailant pulled up in a rental car, exited the vehicle and threatened members of the community’s security team with a knife, before he was shot. The terrorist was later identified as a Muslim Canadian that had arrived in Israel posing as a tourist the day before.
  • It’s now been 291 days since the hostages were abducted. According to official Israeli data of the 120 hostages still in captivity, 46 are no longer alive, at least 13 were killed since the first hostages were released at end of last year. Of the 74 presumed still alive, 2 are children, 12 are women, including 5 female soldiers. Of the 60 men, six are over the age of 60.

Context: Netanyahu arrives in the US at a time of extraordinary American political upheaval and is likely to find the US political establishment concerned primarily with domestic matters.

  • With Biden freed of the burden of re-election, there is much speculation on what his policies and attitude towards Israel and its war in Gaza will be during his remaining tenure. His administration has expressed deep frustration with Netanyahu’s right and far-right coalition, and shown itself willing to impose sanctions on West Bank settlers, and may look for further opportunities to do so.
  • Netanyahu will recognise the sensitivity of the American political climate he is entering and is thought likely to focus his address to congress on consensual, bipartisan aspects of the US-Israeli relationship.
  • After his withdrawal from the presidential race, in a message to his campaign base, Biden said that during his remaining time in office, “I’ll be working very closely with the Israelis and with the Palestinians to try to work out how we can get the Gaza war to end, and Middle East peace, and get all those hostages home.”
  • Hostage negotiations have continued under the broad framework of what became known as the “Biden proposal”, despite its originating in Israel. The two areas of greatest concern in recent weeks have related to Hamas’s demands that Israel vacate the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt, and that northern Gazans displaced by the war be allowed to return north. Israel has maintained that some kind of presence in the corridor is essential to prevent the resumption of weapons smuggling into Gaza through Egypt, and that mechanisms must be in place to prevent Hamas fighters moving north along with the civilian population.
  • It is highly likely that Hamas will instinctively resist the solutions Israeli delegates will propose on these issues. However, there is hope that the combination of the pressure Israel has brought to bear on the organisation through its military campaign and diplomatic pressure from Qatar and Egypt will persuade Hamas leaders that this is the best deal it can expect.

Looking ahead: This is a particularly crucial moment for the hostages and for hostage negotiations, as, with the election approaching, the US will have reduced diplomatic capacity to devote to the issue.

  • Netanyahu will address both houses of congress tomorrow, with some Democratic figures expected to boycott.
  • Despite a meeting with President Biden at one stage looking unlikely due to his Covid diagnosis, the two are expected to meet on Thursday. Before his departure, Netanyahu said that this would be “an opportunity to thank him for the things he did for Israel in the war and during his long and distinguished career in public service, as Senator, as Vice President, and as President.”
  • “It will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how to advance in the critical months ahead the goals that are important for both our countries: Achieving the release of all our hostages, defeating Hamas, confronting the terror axis of Iran and its proxies, and ensuring that all Israel citizens return safely to their homes in the north and in the south.”
  • Netanyahu is also set to meet with Harris during his visit.
  • He is due to fly back to Israel on Friday, but is thought to be prepared to extend his stay to enable a meeting with Trump

July 22, 2024

Israeli air strikes target Houthi port

What’s happened: On Saturday, Israel responded to last Friday’s fatal Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv by attacking the Yemeni port of Hodeida with F-15, F-16, and F-35 bombers, setting oil and gas depots on fire and disrupting port activity.

  • The operation was codenamed “Long Arm”, a reflection of the fact that Israeli planes had to travel over 1,800 kilometres to reach Yemen – longer even than the journey to Tehran.
  • The approximately 20 planes involved in the mission required mid-air refuelling and flew at low altitude to avoid enemy radar. Israeli naval vessels in the Red Sea provided cover.
  • The attack, which took place under the US CENTCOM umbrella, and is likely to have involved some level of coordination with both Egypt and Saudi Arabia, is thought to have reduced the Hodeida port’s fuel storage capacity from 150,000 tonnes to 50,000.
  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said about Operation Long Arm: “We attacked the area of the port because it is a supply route to deliver Iranian arms from Iran to Yemen.” He added: “This was a complex attack, one of the longest-distance and longest-range attacks ever to be carried out by the Israel Air Force. It required meticulous planning and preparations for a range of possible threats in the area.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant said, “The fire that is now burning in Hodeida can be seen across the entire Middle East, and that has clear implications. The Houthis attacked us more than 200 times. The first time they hurt an Israeli citizen, we hit them and we will do that in every place that doing so is necessary.”
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu put the attack in the wider context of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” and the threat it poses both to Israel and the world: “This axis is operating not only against Israel,” he said. “It threatens the wellbeing of the entire world. And Israel expects the international community to intensify its efforts against Iran and its proxies to curb Iran’s aggression and to defend international freedom of sailing. Anyone who wants to see a stable and safe Middle East needs to stand up to Iran’s axis of evil and to support Israel’s struggle against Iran and its proxies.”
  • On Sunday, the Houthis retaliated by launching multiple ballistic missiles towards the southern Israeli city of Eilat. Israel’s long-range Arrow 3 defence system intercepted one missile outside of Israeli airspace. While sirens sounded in Eilat, there were no reports on impact in the area.
  • Friday’s drone attack on Tel Aviv was the latest act of Houthi aggression against Israel. In the last nine months, the Yemeni groups has fired over 220 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, mostly at Eilat.
  • The attack, by an Iranian-made Samad-3 drone, killed Tel Aviv resident Yevgeny Ferder, 50, the first time an Israeli civilian had been killed by a Houthi strike. Eight others were taken to hospital with injuries. The IDF said that the drone had been tracked from Yemen to Israel but was not engaged by air defences due to human error.

Context: The Israeli attack came as a direct response to Friday’s drone attack, but this was also the first Israeli strike on Yemen since they have launched over 200 missiles and drones towards Israel since October.

  • Since October 7th, under Iranian direction the Houthis have both targeted Israel directly but also Israel-affiliated vessels in the Red Sea. Over 200 attacks have been launched on international vessels, with the disruption to international shipping significantly impacting several economies. With vessels having to divert routes, Egypt, for example, is losing a significant amount of traffic which would usually travel through the Suez Canal.
  • In response to this targeting, the US and UK have attacked Houthi military infrastructure, in a bid to defend global shipping and trade. Despite US and UK efforts, Houthi attacks have persisted. There is hope that Israel targeting key infrastructure may have more of a deterrent effect.
  • Unlike strikes against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in the north which focus on military targets, this operation deliberately targeted the Houthis’ port and infrastructure.
  • The strike was carried out in the daytime to further highlight the Israeli decision to strike. By targeting the oil storage, it ensured the dramatic images of the fires raging were seen into the night.
  • The IDF had planned for an operation of this nature for months, having simulated the requisite length of flight and refuelling over the Mediterranean. However, the quick turnaround to carry out the attack a day a half after the drone struck Tel Aviv is an impressive operational accomplishment.
  • This serves to further rehabilitate the image of the IDF and send a warning to Iran over the ability to carry out complex missions 1,800km away from Israel.
  • The IDF struck 10 targets, along with the oil reserves, the port was also targeted as the main site for the importing and unloading of Iranian weapons. It is possible that the targets also included weapons storage, but this has not been confirmed.
  • While Israeli officials have emphasised that Israel conducted this operation on its own, it would have coordinated the flight path with allies in the region including Egypt and Saudi Arabia as they flew close to their airspace. This is the latest advantageous example of Israel being part of US CENTCOM, which aids regional coordination.
  • The strike can also be perceived as a warning to Hezbollah that Lebanese state infrastructure could be targeted if escalation in the north persists.
  • In the short term, the operation elicited criticism from northern residents who have been under constant attack for months and have been calling on the government to respond more forcefully. It gave the perception that a strike on Tel Aviv carries more weight than those in the north.
  • Israeli officials, however, pointed out that it was the accumulative attacks emanating from the Houthis which caused Israel to take action, and that the response would have been similar if the fatality had been in Eilat or elsewhere.
  • Hezbollah’s threat is of a much greater order of magnitude, and due to Lebanon’s proximity to Israel, many more factors need to be taken into consideration before Lebanese infrastructure is targeted.

Looking ahead: The Houthis have said that they intend to continue its attacks against Israel. Over the weekend, spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam tell Al Jazeera there would be “no red lines… All sensitive institutions with all… levels will be a target for us.”

  • It is the Israeli hope that the damage to the port will impede the Houthis efforts to import Iranian weapons

July 19, 2024

ICJ announcement expected today, as UAV strikes central Tel Aviv

* For coverage of the drone attack in Tel Aviv in the early hours of this morning, see Israeli Media Summary below.

ICJ: This afternoon, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague is set to deliver a nonbinding advisory opinion on the status of Israel’s military and civilian presence in east Jerusalem and the West Bank under international law.

  • Evidentiary hearings were heard in February, after a 2022 UN resolution requesting the court’s opinion on the “Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem.”
  • The resolution, passed by 87 votes to 26 (with 53 abstentions), asked for the court’s scope of enquiry to consider the “ongoing violation” of “the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination” and “prolonged occupation, settlement and annexation of the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967,” as well as alleged Israeli attempts to alter  “the demographic composition, character and status of the Holy City of Jerusalem.”
  • The UK joined the US, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Australia in voting against the resolution. Israel felt reassured that its closest allies did not support the resolution, forming what Israel refers to as a “moral minority” of western liberal democratic states supporting it.
  • The court’s February hearings were extensive, with over 50 countries giving evidence. Israel, however, opted not to cooperate with the process, arguing that it was “part of the Palestinian attempt to dictate the results of the diplomatic settlement without negotiations” – an alleged tactic often referred to as ‘lawfare’. It expressed its view that the court lacked appropriate jurisdiction in a submission to the court itself.
  • At the time of the UN resolution calling for the ICJ’s opinion, Prime Minister Netanyahu said “just like the hundreds of distorted UN General Assembly resolutions against Israel over the years, today’s disgraceful resolution will not obligate the government of Israel. The Jewish people is not occupying its land and is not occupying its eternal capital Jerusalem. No UN resolution can distort this historical truth.”

Context: The ICJ is one of the UN’s principle organs. It’s opinions, though usually non-binding, often contribute to customary international law.

  • The court is composed of 15 judges who are elected to by the UN General Assembly and Security Council to serve for nine-year terms.
  • The court’s current president is Lebanese judge Nawaf Salam, who has a history of harsh criticism of Israel.
  • In 2004, the court was requested by the UN to deliver an advisory opinion on the legality of the separation barrier between Israel and the West Bank.
  • Unlike in the recent case called by South Africa, the ICJ’s advisory opinion on the current case will be non-binding.
  • Critics argue that Israel’s non-participation means that the ICJ will lack the necessary factual basis required to reach an informed decision. As former Israeli Supreme Court Aharon Barak noted of the 2004 case, “in the proceedings before the ICJ, the injured parties did not participate. Israel was not party to the proceedings. There was no adversarial process, whose purpose is to establish the factual basis through a choice between contradictory factual figures. The ICJ accepted the figures in the [UN] Secretary-General’s report, and in the reports of the special rapporteurs, as objective factual figures. The burden was not cast upon the parties to the proceedings, nor was it examined.”
  • Legal critics of the court’s processes have argued that it tends to rely too heavily on evidence supplied by the UN itself. These same critics have cast doubt on the reliability of this UN-supplied evidence, pointing, for example, to the international body’s general acceptance of Hamas casualty figures from the current war in Gaza.
  • Of the current case, critics also note that, in the case of East Jerusalem, the will of the Palestinian population is likely to be ignored. Polling has indicated that, by a large majority, East Jerusalemites have indicated a preference for the area remaining under Israeli control.
  • Unlike the West Bank, East Jerusalemites hold Israeli residence permits, giving them full freedom of movement, full rights to the benefits of Israeli citizenship, including healthcare and national insurance payments (bar the right to vote for the Knesset, unless they apply for citizenship).
  • Earlier this year, in another anti-Israel motivated move, South Africa brought a case to the ICJ accusing Israel of genocide in its war in Gaza. The court accepted the case, and its full investigation could take several years.
  • Israel took control of the West Bank in a defensive war in June 1967, during which time Jerusalem was also unified. The UN has generally held that this occupation was/is unlawful, pointing to the general international legal principle of the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by force.
  • Critics of this view argue that this principle cannot justly be applied to territory occupied during a defensive war, and that the previous custodian of the areas – Jordan – had not right to occupy them either.
  • However, multiple Israeli governments, including the Prime Minister Netanyahu in his famous Bar Ilan speech, have accepted in principle that the West Bank would form part of an independent Palestinian state under a future two state solution, with appropriate modifications made to account for Israeli settlement there and Israel’s security needs.
  • The repeated failure of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to clamp down on terror and to cease incitement and inducement to commit it has led many in Israel to grow sceptical of the wisdom of such a two state solution. October 7th has only added to the view that, as presently constituted, the Palestinian national movement cannot be considered a peaceful partner to such a process.
  • This week, by 68 votes to 9, the Knesset passed a declarative resolution rejecting the prospect of a two state solution. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and the Labour Party, as well as the prime minister himself, absented themselves from the Knesset chamber in order to avoid the vote.
  • The resolution said that “the Knesset of Israel firmly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state west of Jordan. The establishment of a Palestinian state in the heart of the Land of Israel will pose an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens, perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and destabilise the region.”
  • “It will only be a matter of a short time until Hamas takes over the Palestinian state and turns it into a radical Islamic terror base, working in coordination with the Iranian-led axis to eliminate the State of Israel,” it continued. “Promoting the idea of ​​a Palestinian state at this time will be a reward for terrorism and will only encourage Hamas and its supporters to see this as a victory, thanks to the massacre of October 7, 2023, and a prelude to the takeover of jihadist Islam in the Middle East.”
  • However, the resolution should be seen as a symbolic gesture reflecting the view of the current government as well as the scepticism of Benny Gantz’s opposition faction. It is a recognition of the current fears of the majority of Israelis regarding two states, rather than a binding policy position which might impede future Israeli governments in pursuing a two state solution.

Looking ahead: The announcement is expected in The Hague at 3pm local time.

  • Although Israel was not party to the proceedings, pressure will likely grow from the furthest right-wing elements in the government to punish the Palestinians for such a perceived act of lawfare. They will likely push for further unilateral actions in the West Bank, further exacerbating international criticism.
  • Israeli officials are concerned over the possibility that the court will advise the UN that Israel is violating international law, and may even call on another international juridical body, the International Criminal Court, to initiate criminal proceedings against Israeli officials in the West Bank.

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