What’s happened: Early this morning Israeli naval forces took control of the British-flagged yacht Madleen, operated by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, which was attempting to breach the naval blockade on Gaza. 

• The vessel, carrying 12 activists including Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg and French MEP Rima Hassan, was intercepted without incident, and no injuries were reported. 
• The Israeli Foreign Ministry confirmed the passengers were unharmed, provided with food and water, and would be repatriated to their home countries. The Ministry dismissed the flotilla as a “media stunt” and emphasised that the small amount of aid aboard would be delivered through authorised humanitarian channels.
• Israel has questioned the intentions of the Flotilla. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Oren Marmorstein told Army Radio this morning, “We successfully conveyed to the world its true character. This was a provocation. This was a gimmick. We called it the ‘selfies yacht.’ I think that caught on because, first of all, that’s what it is. They were busy 24-hour-a-day filming themselves. You use the gimmick for your own purposes to show that this was a PR stunt, a media gimmick, and not a genuine humanitarian effort.”
• Over the weekend, the remains of Nattapong Pinta, a Thai hostage were recovered. He was kidnapped alive from Nir Oz and murdered in captivity. 
• Meanwhile IDF ground operations continue to expand simultaneously across Gaza. Hamas has responded with guerilla tactics, primarily planting explosives, with once more fatal consequences that killed four more soldiers on Friday.
• The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) resumed its aid distribution on Sunday, following a pause caused by threats from Hamas.
• Israeli security correspondents were invited by the IDF to visit the Hamas tunnel network beneath the European Hospital in Khan Yunis in which Muhammed Sinwar and others were eliminated in an air strike in 13th May. They described a tunnel seven meters deep and several hundred meters long with multiple entry and exit points, living quarters, and even a shelter suitable for wartime. It is thought that in order to protect themselves, Sinwar and other senior Hamas members stayed close to hostages, intending for them to serve as human shields.

Context: The recent soldiers’ deaths – eight in the last week – have reignited the domestic Israeli debate over the efficacy and moral calculus of the “military pressure doctrine.” Twenty soldiers have now fallen in the latest offensive. 

• The recovery of the bodies is a stark reminder that 41 hostages believed alive at the time of capture have since been murdered or killed whilst in captivity. 
• This once more underscores the limits of purely military options. There has long been a fear that hostages are endangered by the proximity of IDF manoeuvres, and daring raids to release living hostages have had only limited success.     
• The return of the body of Pinta follows the recovery of the bodies of Gadi Haggai and his wife Judy Weinstein-Haggai (who were killed on 7th October) at the end of last week in the Khan Yunis area in southern Gaza. Their bodies had been held by a small splinter organisation, the Mujahideen Battalions. 
• Established in 2006 with a strict Salafi Islamist orientation, the Mujahideen Battalions receive funding and support from Iran, and were also responsible for the murder of the Bibas family. The group is thought to hold at least one additional body of a foreign national.
• On Saturday, Israeli forces killed two senior commanders of Mujahideen Brigades in separate air strikes in Gaza City.  As’ad Abu Sharaiya, the group’s leader, and senior field commander Mahmoud Muhammad Hamid Kuhail, were directly involved in the deadly attacks on Kibbutz Nir Am on 7^th October.
• The latest operation still leaves 55 hostages inside Gaza for 612 days with the current assessment that 20 remain alive. Over the weekend Hamas released a photo of Matan Zangauker which served both as proof of life and as psychological warfare. His mother Einav, of the most prominent campaigners for a hostage deal, once more addressed the rally on Saturday night accusing Prime Minister Netanyahu of “sacrificing the hostages.”
• According to COGAT, throughout last week 350 trucks belonging to the UN, carrying flour and other food, entered into Gaza. According to GHF, on Friday alone, they distributed 471,240 meals through 8,160 food parcels.
• Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza has been affirmed as legal under international law by the 2011 UN Palmer Report, which concluded that the blockade was a legitimate security measure to prevent weapons smuggling into Gaza by sea.
• The IDF is continuing to pursue its multi-objective offensive:
  • Destroy Hamas infrastructure, focused on tunnels, weapons caches, and command and control centres.
  • Controlling more territory and capturing “assets” like the body of Muhammad Sinwar to improve their bargaining position and increase the pressure on Hamas.
  • Undermining Hamas’s grip on aid distribution as well promoting even supporting rival local actors. The latter has been heavily criticised.
• In light of this, some Israeli analysts have called for the return of the Palestinian Authority to both be part of the mechanism to deliver aid and be part of the post-war governance.
• Meanwhile, recent Hamas document discovered in Gaza indicate the level of financial assistance, and cooperation between Hamas and Qatar. The documents suggest that Qatar has been actively involved in Hamas’s strategic decisions, including attempts to undermine regional peace efforts.

Looking ahead: Concern remains that, with US attention elsewhere, not enough pressure is being applied on Qatar and Hamas to renew hostage negotiations.       

• With no further talks currently planned, Israel is waiting for US envoy Witkoff to return to the region and reconvene talks. In their absence the IDF operation is set to continue.

What’s happened: On Monday, three IDF soldiers from the Givati Brigade were killed in combat in the northern Gaza Strip. Two other soldiers were injured in the explosion which killed Staff Sgt. Lior Sternberg, 20, Staff Sgt. Ofek Barhana, also 20, and Staff Sgt. Omer Van Gelder, 22. The attackers emerged from a tunnel whose opening was in a destroyed building.

• IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said, “This building is a military target, just as are tens of thousands of other buildings in the Gaza Strip that are used for terrorism. Almost every second house is booby-trapped and contains a tunnel shaft.”
• Another soldier was killed yesterday in combat in Gaza City’s Shejaiya neighbourhood. Master Sgt. Alon Farkas, 27, was a reservist in the Paratroopers Brigade.
• The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the aid mechanism backed by the U.S. and Israel operating mostly in southern Gaza, announced that it would suspend its aid distribution today in order to prepare logistical work to prepare for larger crowds. This follows at least two reported incidents of gunfire and casualties near distribution sites in the past three days.
• Yesterday, Hamas authorities claimed that 31 people were killed by Israeli gunfire outside a GHF site. The IDF Spokesperson, Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin responded by saying: “IDF troops fired warning shots approximately half a kilometre from the distribution area toward suspects who were approaching in a manner that endangered the troops’ safety.” Defrin also pledged investigation of the incident.
• This follows at least two other incidents over the weekend with vastly discrepant reporting on the locations of gunfire and casualty figures.
• Reporting on this incidents was affected by vas spread of misinformation that has been debunked by fact-checkers from the Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting and Analysis (CAMERA).
• The GHF says that within its sites, it has distributed aid yesterday without incident, handing out 21 truckloads of food, totalling 20,160 boxes. The GHF further reports that in eight days of operation it has distributed 7 million meals from three different sites.
• Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who has been in the front of Israeli negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release since the end of the previous ceasefire three months ago, was reported to have spoken directly with the Qatari Prime Minister at the initiative of the American envoy Steve Witkoff. Earlier this week, Hamas rejected the new Witkoff framework for a ceasefire, which Israel had already accepted.
  • According to reports, this plan would include an immediate release of nine or ten living hostages, plus the remains of 18 deceased hostages, out of 58 held by Hamas, of whom twenty are presumed to be alive.
  • In return Israel would release 125 heavyweight terrorists with blood on their hands, all of whom are life-term prisoners, 1,111 terrorists from the Gaza Strip who were arrested after October 7, 2023, and remains of 180 dead terrorists.
• In the first such incident since the collapse of the Assad regime last year, rockets were fired from Syria into Israel. The two rockets landed in an open area of the southern Golan Heights. The IDF responded by striking weapons facilities of the new regime in southern Syria.

Context: For the first time since the war began, the IDF released map showing the progress of its forces in Gaza. The IDF now holds more Gazan territory than at any point in the war — and for that matter, more territory than it has held in Gaza since the implementation of the first stage of the Oslo Accords in 1994. However, broad swathes of territory in the centre of the Strip have yet to be reached by Israeli forces. These are the areas where it is believed the remaining hostages are being held.

• Defence officials were reported to have warned that a complete collapse of Hamas in Gaza might mean that rival militias could be holding the remaining hostages, making any kind of negotiation for their release even more difficult.
• Walla News reports that the IDF has held a special situation assessment meeting to discuss the efforts Hamas’s leadership has made to derail the humanitarian aid distribution by the GHF at three sites in Rafah. In some cases armed Hamas fighters have fired live rounds at the civilians in a bid to deter them from advancing. One defence official said that “Hamas officials realise that they aren’t the only party that controls Gaza anymore. With the passage of time, the better the distribution centres will operate so that this [mechanism] will work far better for more people, and more centres will be set up.”
• An Israeli defence official said Hamas has also been exerting intense pressure on the UN officials not to cooperate with allowing in aid and that UN officials in Gaza have refused for more than a week to allow 390 trucks laden with humanitarian aid currently at the Kerem Shalom crossing to make their way to central Gaza.
• The American businessman Bishara Bahbah, who was the national chairman of “Arab Americans for Trump” before the 2024 presidential election, remains in Doha mediating between Hamas officials and Steve Witkoff. There were reports that he is aiming for a breakthrough before the upcoming Eid al-Adha festival next week. For now, there is no Israeli delegation in Doha, and American officials, including Witkoff himself, have placed most of the blame for the impasse on Hamas.
• A delegation of French diplomatic officials visited Israel this week to brief their Israeli counterparts on the French-Saudi conference planned for later this month.
  • Media reports over recent weeks have mooted the possibility of a French announcement of recognition of a Palestinian state at the conference, similar to moves made last year by Norway, Spain, and Ireland.
  • According to the French diplomats, this is not what France is planning.
  • The goal of the French initiative, according to the diplomats, is not any immediate steps but rather an agreed document with a vision for disarming Hamas, reforming the PA, and steps to achieve a two-state solution.

Looking ahead: A coalition crisis in Israel could push the country into early elections. United Torah Judaism, one of two ultra-Orthodox parties in the current coalition, are reportedly planning on quitting the Government over its failure to pass a draft exemption law for the ultra-Orthodox public.

• Such legislation was being blocked by MK Yuli Edelstein of the Likud, who heads the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee in parliament.
• Rumours swirled around the Knesset that Prime Minister Netanyahu was working to have Edelstein moved from this position, but nothing came of this manoeuvre.
• Following on the reports of UTJ’s possible defection from the Government, opposition parties Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beitenu and The Democrats announced that they will submit a bill for the Knesset’s dissolution next Wednesday. Elections are currently scheduled for October 2026, but a dissolution of parliament would mean that elections could be held as soon as this coming autumn.

Witkoff Plan: According to reports Israel has agreed to the latest ceasefire agreement being advanced by US envoy Steve Witkoff.  

• As of Friday morning, the mediators, US, Egypt and Qatar are still waiting for a Hamas response.
• The latest iteration of the agreement, according to the Saudi Al-Arabiya news channel includes:
  • A 60 day ceasefire guaranteed by President Trump.
  • Hamas will release ten living hostages and 18 dead hostages, (from the remaining 58 hostages). On the first day of the agreement, half of the hostages (five living and nine dead) will be released. The release of the remaining half will take place on the seventh day. 
  • In exchange, Israel will release 125 Palestinian prisoners sentenced to life imprisonment and 1,111 prisoners arrested after October 7, 2023. In exchange for 18 dead Israelis, 180 bodies of Palestinians will be handed over. The release will take place simultaneously in an agreed-upon mechanism and without Hamas propaganda ceremonies.
  • From the first day, Israel will allow increased aid to enter Gaza. 
  • Similarly, all Israeli military activity in Gaza will stop on the first day. During the ceasefire, aerial activity (including intelligence gathering) will stop for ten hours day, or for 12 hours on the days of hostage releases. 
  • On the tenth day, according to the document, Hamas will relay complete information about the medical condition of the hostages (with proof about the living and medical reports or proof of those who are dead). In return, Israel will relay complete information about the Palestinian prisoners arrested in the Gaza Strip after October 7 and the number of killed Gazans whose bodies are being held by Israel. Hamas will have to ensure the health and safety of the hostages in the course of the ceasefire.

Context: There remains consistent pressure on the Israeli government from inside Israel society to prioritise the release of all the hostages.

• Israel’s acceptance of the plan was announced by Prime Minister Netanyahu in a meeting with dead hostages’ families yesterday. Following the meeting a spokesperson for the families said, “it was a dignified meeting, but unfortunately, we did not receive satisfactory answers. We do not have the impression that the prime minister prioritises the release of every last hostage as one of the war objectives. We did not leave calmer or more optimistic.” 
• A nineteen year old Defence Ministry civilian contractor David Libi was killed in northern Gaza yesterday when an explosive devise detonated under the bulldozer he was driving. The incident will be investigated as the area, inside Jabalya, had been declared clear of terrorists and IEDs. 
• He was killed as part of the IDF plan to expand the buffer zone in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Due to the protracted nature of the fighting and animosity between the sides, some issues remain unclear or unresolved  including the deployment of IDF troops during the ceasefire.  According to the Al-Arabiya report:
  • On day one Israel will redeploy in the northern Gaza Strip and on the Netzarim Corridor.
  • On the seventh day, after the release of the second batch of hostages, Israel will redeploy in the southern Gaza Strip.
  • The technical teams will set the borders of the final deployment in the course of negotiations. 
• It remains unclear who will be responsible for the delivery and distribution for the aid. Some reports have suggested it will revert back to the UN, as opposed to the current role of the US led Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.   
• For the sixth time in a week, sirens were sounded across central Israel as the IDF intercepted a missile that the Houthis fired from Yemen on Thursday evening. No one was injured, but shrapnel from the interceptor fell in Mevaseret Zion and the neighbourhood of Kiryat Hayovel in Jerusalem.
• Earlier in the week (and for the second time this month), Israel attacked the Houthis controlled airport in Sanaa.    

Looking ahead: If the agreement is finalised, President Trump is expected to make the  announcement. 

• Witkoff will once more visit the region and lead the final negotiations, with the US committed to  ensure that the negotiations will continue until reaching a final agreement. 
• For the deal to be approved in Israel, Netanyahu will need to present the plan to the security cabinet and the cabinet. The current assessment is that Smotrich and Ben Gvir will be opposed, but will not leave the government. 
• If an agreement is reached, on the first day, the sides will begin negotiations on the long-term security arrangements. The permanent ceasefire is supposed to include:
  • The key and the conditions for the release of the remaining hostages in exchange for an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners. 
  • Issues relating to the deployment and withdrawal of the Israeli troops and the long-term security arrangements in Gaza.
  • Governance of the Strip for “the day after,” and an announcement of a permanent ceasefire to end the war.

What’s happened: The new aid mechanism for Gaza backed by the US and Israel was launched yesterday.

• The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation reported opening of two distribution sites in the southern Gaza Strip, one in Tel al-Sultan and one in the Morag Corridor. The GHF reported distributing 8000 aid packages on the first day of operation. Each package contains 20 kilograms of basic foodstuffs and can feed, according to the Foundation, “5.5 people for 3.5 days.” In total 462,000 meals were distributed.
• The GHF did not provide a breakdown by site, and media reports were all from the Tel al-Sultan site. 
• At that site, there was a brief breakdown of order around 4:30 pm. The incident ended quickly with no reported injuries. Security at the site is provided by a private American contractor. Although precise events are unclear, it is thought that a mob (possibly affiliated to Hamas) was able to break into the compound. Reportedly, the Americans fired warning shots into the air in order to disperse the crowd. After about 10 minutes, control was gradually restored. Roughly 1,000 food packages were stolen.
• No Israeli forces are at the site, and Gaza civilians who came for aid packages did not need to show any identification to the security contractors and did not come into contact with any Israeli soldiers.

Context: The new aid mechanism is supposed to eventually operate at four sites, all in areas that have been cleared by IDF operations. 

• Its purpose is to get aid directly to civilians so that it cannot be siphoned off to Hamas forces, or confiscated by Hamas for resale in order to finance Hamas operations, as has happened with previous shipments of aid. Israel estimates that Hamas has stolen more than $1 billion worth of aid in the last 18 months of warfare.

• It comes more than two months after since Israel began blocking aid convoys into Gaza at the end of the previous ceasefire. During the ceasefire, which lasted from January 19 to March 18 of this year, hundreds of truckloads of aid entered Gaza. In the last fortnight, as Israeli officials began to assess that the humanitarian situation inside Gaza might reach a critical level, some aid deliveries were  allowed in.
• International aid agencies and many governments have strongly criticised the new aid mechanism and nearly all refusing to work with GHF. They charge that it violates neutrality and that pushes people to relocate.
• The alleged violation of neutrality is an odd charge to make by organisations such as UNRWA and others, who have operated within a Hamas-led regime hand in glove.
• Ensuring civilians can get crucial aid outside a combat zone is normal practice in warfare, including in large-scale operations by Allied forces in Mosul and Raqaa during the battles against ISIS in the last decade.
• The UN wasn’t alone in trying to ground the GHF aid effort. Hamas reportedly set up roadblocks in territory still under its control to block people from reaching aid distribution sites. It publicly threatened citizens who receive aid from the GHF. And it spread rumours that Palestinians arriving to claim aid were being arrested by Israeli forces.

Exposure of Hamas funding from the UK: A recent report by NGO Monitor reveals that UK taxpayer funds were knowingly channelled through a Gaza-based programme with direct links to Hamas.

• The programme in question was part of a broader £13 million UK aid initiative aimed at supporting humanitarian efforts in Gaza.
• The document suggests that UK officials were aware of the Hamas-affiliated nature of the programme but proceeded with funding without implementing adequate safeguards.
• This revelation has sparked significant controversy and calls for accountability within the UK government regarding its aid distribution practices.

Context: Hamas has a well-documented history of exploiting humanitarian aid for its own purposes, including diverting funds meant for civilians to support its militant activities.

• The UK government has previously imposed sanctions on individuals and entities linked to Hamas’s financial networks, aiming to disrupt its funding sources. 
• Despite these efforts, the recent exposure of the Gaza aid programme suggests lapses in oversight and due diligence in aid distribution processes.
• The UK’s involvement in funding a Hamas-linked programme raises questions about the effectiveness of its current mechanisms to prevent such occurrences.
• This situation underscores the challenges faced by donor countries in ensuring that aid reaches its intended recipients without being diverted by terrorist groups.
• In response to the controversy, the UK may consider implementing more stringent vetting processes for aid recipients and enhancing cooperation with international partners to monitor aid flows more effectively.

Looking Ahead: Hostage families and their supporters will be holding rallies across Israel today.  

• The UK government is likely to face increased scrutiny and pressure to review and strengthen its aid distribution policies and oversight mechanisms.

• There may be calls for greater transparency and accountability in the allocation and monitoring of foreign aid to prevent future misappropriations.
• The exposure of this incident could lead to a re-evaluation of partnerships with organisations operating in conflict zones, particularly those with potential links to designated terrorist groups.
• The US is pressing ahead with its proposed ceasefire and hostage deal. Earlier this week, Hamas reported “accepting” a deal that was not what the US had proposed. Referring to the actual deal on the table, US envoy Steve Witkoff said, “What I have seen from Hamas is disappointing and completely unacceptable. [The] deal is on the table. Hamas should take it.”

What’s happened: On Monday, 170 aid trucks entered Gaza via the Kerem Shalom crossing, bringing the total to 495 over the past week.

• Today, the first distribution centre operated by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has opened.  
• The GHF is a newly formed body backed by both the US and Israel, which has now assumed control of coordinating aid into Gaza. 
• The aim of this new model is to prevent Hamas from looting the supplies and profiting from the aid, by ensuring that the aid is distributed directly and free of charge to Palestinian civilians.
• The GHF’s operational model involves establishing four secure distribution hubs, which are guarded by the IDF, with oversight provided by an American contractors. The hubs aim to deliver aid to over 1.2 million people by the end of this week, with trucks transporting essentials such as food, medical supplies, and water. 
• GHF’s distribution system includes a weekly packaged meal system, where essential food supplies are distributed directly to Palestinian families in Gaza. These meal kits are delivered through secure routes that have been cleared by the IDF, with the hope that this will ensure Hamas will be unable to seize or divert the aid.
• Despite the scale-up in aid volumes, GHF has faced internal challenges. Its executive director, Jake Wood, resigned after expressing concerns that the aid effort could be compromised due to the operational environment in Gaza, where the ongoing military campaign poses serious risks to their neutrality. Wood said he was proud of the work he oversaw, “including developing a pragmatic plan that could feed hungry people, address security concerns about diversion, and complement the work of longstanding NGOs in Gaza…However, it is clear that it is not possible to implement this plan while also strictly adhering to the humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, impartiality, and independence, which I will not abandon.”
• Following Wood’s resignation, GHF announced that John Acree has been named its interim executive director. It described him as a “senior humanitarian practitioner with more than two decades of global field experience in disaster response, stabilisation programming, and civil-military coordination.”

Context: Israel faces the dual challenge of facilitating humanitarian relief while maintaining military pressure on Hamas. 

• The renewal and expansion of aid is partly in response to the IDF’s own assessments on the ground coupled with heavy diplomatic pressure and international concern, including from the US, UK and EU.
• In parallel to the redistribution of aid, the IDF has continued to operate across the Gaza Strip as part of ‘Operation Gideon’s Chariots.’ According to the IDF, in the course of the operation it has attacked 2,900 targets and has eliminated more than 800 terrorists, including ten battalion commanders and deputy commanders, 18 company commanders and another 12 high-ranking Hamas officials. 
• IDF officials said that its attacks on senior and mid-level Hamas commanders have severely debilitated the organisation, and that many terrorists have abandoned the combat zones to blend in with the local population.
• The IDF has also suggested that there are recent signs Hamas’s ability to govern is beginning to crack, as well as signs of a sharp drop in the Gazan public’s confidence in the organisation. However, the IDF have made similar assessments in the past with Hamas proving more resilient than anticipated.    
• Following the targeted strike on Muhammad Sinwar, it remains unclear the level of coordination and communication between Hamas’s military wing in Gaza and its political leadership in Qatar, which in turn has created a power vacuum and uncertainty about who holds negotiating authority. Compounding this are reports that Hamas’s military wing has not paid its operatives for three months, weakening morale and operational capacity.
• The IDF has also continued to investigate reports about the death of nine children of two doctors from Nasser Hospital, which Hamas alleges was the result of an Israeli strike. IDF officials said there is no indication that an incident of that kind occurred. Four terrorists who had been inside a nearby building were attacked, but the strike was precise, no civilians had been in the vicinity and no children’s bodies were removed from the building. 
• Separately, the Air Force has changed the nature of its attacks in Gaza, and is now carrying out fewer air strikes and is more focused on supporting the manoeuvring ground forces with drones and helicopter gunships.
• The current operational doctrine emphasises maintaining momentum without allowing Hamas to regroup or fortify remaining positions. However, the Israeli leadership faces increasing domestic pressure amid fears of strategic drift without a clear political endgame.
• The GHF’s distribution hubs aim to create secure zones where aid can be delivered directly to civilians without Hamas interference. The IDF is tasked with securing access roads to prevent Hamas from establishing checkpoints that could lead to confiscation or diversion of aid. The planned hubs will provide aid to:
  • The northern Gaza Strip where around 110,000 people remain, despite numerous efforts by the IDF for them to leave.
  • The area around Gaza City which currently has around 900,000 people.
  • Central Gaza, Nuseirat area with around 350,000 people.    
  • Khan Younis and the Al-Mawasi humanitarian enclave, with around 850,000 people.
• US mediation efforts continue to reach a new ceasefire and hostage deal. However, negotiations remain deadlocked, mainly due to Hamas’s refusal to disarm.

Looking Ahead: Three more GHF aid delivery centres are expected to be operational in the next few days.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu has insinuated that a new hostage deal could be days away, without any specifics the comments have caused further despair among the families of the remaining hostages.
• Tomorrow will be the 600^th day since October 7^th 2023, significant protests are expected across Isreal supporting the families of the 58 hostages that remain in Hamas captivity.      
• IDF officials said they anticipate the fighting in Gaza to continue for another two months. Five divisions are currently operating in the Strip with the goal of controlling roughly 75 per cent of the Strip.