Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders
What’s happened: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh.
- In his public statement, Iran’s supreme leader, said: “we see avenging his blood our duty,” because it happened on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
- In a memorial ceremony held in Tehran, the Ayatollah personally led the prayers, while also speaking at the ceremony, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the Israeli regime committed a ‘strategic mistake’.
- In Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation on Wednesday evening and described the current conflict as an “existential war against a stranglehold of terrorist armies and missiles that Iran would like to tighten around our neck.”
- Speaking of Hezbollah’s number two Shukr, Netanyahu said that he “was directly responsible for the massacre of our dear boys and girls in Majdal Shams. He was responsible for the murder of many other Israeli citizens. He was responsible for the unceasing assault against our citizens in the northern communities over nine months of war.”
- “He was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world. The US put a $5 million bounty on his head, and for good reason. He was involved in the murder of 241 American soldiers and 58 French soldiers in Beirut in 1983. He was the main liaison between Iran and Hezbollah and he was responsible for the organisation’s missiles,” Netanyahu added.
- Defence Minister Gallant spoke to his counterpart US Secretary of State Austin who reassured him by saying, “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again.”
- The US has also now deployed at least 12 warships to the region, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, amphibious assault teams and over 4,000 Marines and sailors.
- In a further unconfirmed attack, Syria sources are claiming that Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been killed in a targeted attack close to Damascus. Hajizadeh is understood to have been the senior commander who oversaw the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.
Context: While Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the strike in Tehran, the dual targets in Beirut and Tehran within a few hours appears to be an impressive intelligence and operational achievement for Israel.
- Open speculation remains as to how Haniyeh was killed. Some reports suggest a missile was launched from outside Iran, while others believe the targeted killing was implemented from a closer proximity, implying operatives on the ground.
- This is the latest targeted strike inside Iran, further exposing the gaps in the regime’s internal security.
- As a formal guest of the Ayatollah, and staying in a ‘secure residence’ operated by the IRGC, Haniyeh’s death is seen in Iran as constituting a further psychological blow to the regime, which is likely also a factor in their consideration of response.
- According to the Iranian warning, a response may come directly from Iran – similar to the attack in April in which 300+ drones and missiles were fired at the Israeli home front. Alternatively, the possibility exists that Iran will utilise all of the members of its Axis of Resistance – in Syria, Iraq and Yemen – to carry out an integrated multi-theatre response.
- Israel will be partly reassured by US Secretary Austin’s support and will hope that the regional alliance between Israel, US and regional partners, known as Middle East Air Defence (MEAD), will be as effective as thwarting the Iranian attack in April.
- The strikes on Haniyeh and Shukr are the latest example of an Israeli tactic to target the top leadership in Hamas and Hezbollah.
- In early January, Saleh Al-Arouri, Haniyeh’s deputy and one of the founders of the armed wing of Hamas, was killed in Beirut (although Israel did not take formal responsibility).
- In mid-July, a strike in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing. The confirmation of his death was formally recognised by Israel this morning.
- In March, Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy was killed.
- In April, an airstrike in Damascus killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in Syria, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.
- Haniyeh, who has been Hamas’ political leader since 2017, is the highest -profile member of the group to be killed following the October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza.
- On October 7th he was recorded praying in celebration of the attacks, and called on West Bank Palestinians to join the battle.
- Today is the 300th day since October 7th, with 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. Inside Israel, hostage families and their supporters continue their campaign to pressure the government to move forward with the deal.
- According to Prime Minister Netanyahu the extended military campaign serves to increase the pressure on Hamas and to support Israel in the negotiations. Others are concerned Haniyeh’s death makes a deal harder to conclude.
- In parallel, IDF troops are continuing operational activity in Gaza.
- In the Rafah area troops are currently operating in the area of Tel al-Sultan, where they dismantled a structure rigged with explosives that was used by Hamas terrorists.
- In the area of Khan Yunis, launchers loaded with rockets and aimed toward Israeli territory were struck by the IDF.
Looking ahead: Following the memorial ceremony in Tehran, Haniyeh’s body will be flown to Doha for a formal burial.
- An Iranian response is anticipated in the coming days with Israel on a peak state of alert preparing for any scenario. Israel’s air defences are on maximum alert, the air force jets patrolling the skies and ground forces on heightened vigilance along all the borders.
- The head of Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said, “The Israeli Air Force defends and operates in all arenas of the war, enveloping the State of Israel with dozens of aircraft, manned and unmanned, ready and prepared within minutes for any scenario, in any arena. We will act against anyone planning to harm the citizens of the State of Israel, there Is nowhere that is too far for us to strike”
- So far the Israel’s Home Front command has not yet given any further instructions to the Israeli civilian population.