What’s happened: In the face of a potentially imminent Iranian attack in response to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, Israel continues to come under Hamas and Hezbollah fire from both the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

• Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, the US is said to believe that an Iranian response against Israel may be imminent. This would likely be similar to mid-April’s mass missile and drone launches against Israel, but on a larger scale and also supported by Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
• The US and its regional allies are urging restraint and de-escalation, with Jordan’s Foreign Minister making a rare visit to Iran over the weekend in a last-ditch effort to prevent Iran retaliating against Haniyeh’s death.
• According to a Wall Street Journal report from Sunday, Iran has rejected pleas for moderation and is determined to retaliate even if doing so sparks a regional war.
• The US has also said that it will deploy additional military assets to the Middle East to defend Israel from an expected Iranian attack. These will likely include fighters jets and additional ballistic missile defence-capable cruisers and destroyers.
• While several international airliners have cancelled flights to and from Israel, the country’s airspace remains open with no indications of imminent closure.
• General Michael Kurilla, Commander of US CENTCOM, will arrive in Israel today to complete preparations with the IDF to defend against this likely attack.
• Over the weekend, Hezbollah also fired dozens of drones and rockets at northern Israel. The majority were intercepted, but two Israeli soldiers were moderately wounded in a drone strike near Kibbutz Ayelet HaShahar earlier this morning. The IDF has responded with air and artillery strikes at Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
• Yesterday, Hamas fired at least 19 rockets from the Gaza Strip in its largest barrage for weeks. While predominantly targeting the border community of Sufa, sirens were also triggered in Kiryat Malachi which is 40km away. No injuries were reported, and the IDF later said that it destroyed the rocket launchers used in the strikes.
• Elsewhere in the Gaza Strip, the IDF continues its efforts to degrade and destroy Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure. A particularly large tunnel big enough to drive a vehicle through was uncovered in the Philadelphia Corridor, and is one of dozens that has been identified and destroyed. The IDF has also struck Hamas command and control centres embedded within the Hassan Salame and Nasser schools in Gaza City.
• The IDF has conducted counter-terror operations in the West Bank city of Tulkarem, eliminating nine terrorists in two airstrikes that took place on Saturday. The terrorists killed were associated with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and part of cells responsible for the deaths of Israeli soldiers and police officers earlier in the year.
• Two Israelis were also killed in a stabbing attack in the Tel Aviv suburb of Holon on Sunday. A Palestinian terrorist from the West Bank was killed by responding Israeli police officers.

Context: Over 300 days into OPERATION SWORDS OF IRON, there is little prospect of hostilities abating in either the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or further afield where Iran maintains a network of proxies as part of the “Axis of Resistance”.

• Following Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, Egypt and Qatar have both questioned the future of negotiations between Israel and Hamas intended to secure a ceasefire and the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip. Haniyeh was a senior member of Hamas’s negotiating delegation, and President Biden has branded his assassination as “unhelpful”.
• In the event that negotiations restart and then fail, the US has now guaranteed that Israel will be able to resume its military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: Israel is preparing for Iran’s likely retaliation to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran while the US works to revive April’s defensive coalition.

• While the US has warned that Iran’s expected attack against Israel may come as early as today, it has also been suggested that it could take place on the fast of Tisha B’Av which begins next Monday evening and commemorates national disasters experienced by the Jewish people.
• It is expected that this attack will be similar to April’s, but on a larger scale and involve hundreds or thousands of drones and missiles being fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
• The US is currently working to reconstitute the international coalition which came together to defend Israel against Iran’s attack in April. Coordinated by CENTOM, it is hoped that this coalition will see the UK, US, France, UAE, Jordan, and other Sunni Arab states join forces and protect Israeli airspace against missiles and drones fired by Iran and its proxies.

What’s happened: Last night Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on the phone with President Biden and Vice President Harris.

• According to the White House, “The President reaffirmed his commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The President discussed efforts to support Israel’s defence against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive US military deployments.”
• Today Defence Secretary, John Healey, who is visiting the region, is expected to arrive to Israel.
• Earlier this week the UK Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Barbara Woodward said, “The UK is resolute in our commitment to Israel’s security. We support Israel’s right to defend itself in the face of such aggression, in line with international humanitarian law.”
• On the ground yesterday, Hezbollah resumed firing rockets into northern Israel aimed at several communities in the western Galilee.
• In a speech on Thursday, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah warned of a harsh response following the assassination of his Chief of Staff. Nasrallah warned, “Because they have picked a fight with everyone, they don’t know where the response will come from … the response will come separately or coordinated.” Nasrallah also warned that the war had entered a “new phase”.
• This morning, IDF announced that during a “targeted, intelligence-based operation, the IDF eliminated the terrorist Mohammed al-Jabari, who was deputy head of weapons manufacturing for the Islamic Jihad.”
• In addition, “IDF troops eliminated approximately 30 terrorists in the area of Rafah.”
• Separately, more details have emerged on Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran. According to the New York Times, he was killed by an explosive device that had been placed in his room more than a month in advance of his visit, and detonated once it was confirmed he was inside.

Context: Israel’s security forces remain on high alert as the country braces for a response to the assassinations this week of Shukr and Haniyeh.

• The IDF has cancelled all leave to ensure they stand at maximum capability and readiness.
• In addition to increased aerial patrols, dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets were waiting on tarmacs, ready to launch an attack or defend against one.
• With the conversation with leading allies and the rare visit of a UK defence secretary Israel will be hoping that the international coalition that stood with Israel when Iran attacked on April 14 will be similarly effective.
• On a recent visit to Israel Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, Commander, US Central Command met with the Minister of Defence Gallant, Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi, and other key security figures. The leaders shared intelligence assessments and discussed the security challenges faced in both the southern and northern arenas of Israel as well as broader regional security concerns. The discussions emphasised enhancing defence and technological cooperation to strengthen Israel’s security and bolster deterrence against regional threats.
• Israel’s confirmation of Deif’s death yesterday is a significant moment in the war. He was directly involved in operational military decisions and led the coordination among the Hamas commanders.
• However Haniyeh was seen as more of a symbolic figure. The Israeli assessment does not believe his assassination will hamper the hostage negotiations.
• Due to the IDF’s campaign in Gaza, it seems Hamas’s capabilities have been significantly reduced. The group’s failure to respond forcefully to the assassination to the targeting of either Deif or Haniyeh is testament to this.
• Haniyeh’s assassinated on Iranian soil, while there as an official guest of the regime is deeply humiliating for the Iran leadership and will therefore elicit a response.
• In April, when Iran attacked Israel with over 300 missiles and drones, its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen were not directly involved.
• The response this time may include a coordinated attack possibly from a range of Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen as well as Lebanon and Iran itself.

Looking ahead: Both the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders will be buried today in Qatar and Lebanon respectively.

• Hamas has called for a ‘Day or Rage’ and for all mosques around the world to include a memorial prayer for Haniyeh.
• After the funeral, the Iranian axis could launch an imminent attack on Israel, whilst it could be that they will wait for a few more days.
• US officials have also raised a scenario in which attacks may take place on US forces in Iraq and Syria.

Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders

What’s happened: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

• In his public statement, Iran’s supreme leader, said: “we see avenging his blood our duty,” because it happened on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
• In a memorial ceremony held in Tehran, the Ayatollah personally led the prayers, while also speaking at the ceremony, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the Israeli regime committed a ‘strategic mistake’.
• In Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation on Wednesday evening and described the current conflict as an “existential war against a stranglehold of terrorist armies and missiles that Iran would like to tighten around our neck.”
• Speaking of Hezbollah’s number two Shukr, Netanyahu said that he “was directly responsible for the massacre of our dear boys and girls in Majdal Shams. He was responsible for the murder of many other Israeli citizens. He was responsible for the unceasing assault against our citizens in the northern communities over nine months of war.”
• “He was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world. The US put a $5 million bounty on his head, and for good reason. He was involved in the murder of 241 American soldiers and 58 French soldiers in Beirut in 1983. He was the main liaison between Iran and Hezbollah and he was responsible for the organisation’s missiles,” Netanyahu added.
• Defence Minister Gallant spoke to his counterpart US Secretary of State Austin who reassured him by saying, “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again.”
• The US has also  now deployed at least 12 warships to the region, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, amphibious assault teams and over 4,000 Marines and sailors.
• In a further unconfirmed attack, Syria sources are claiming that Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been killed in a targeted attack close to Damascus. Hajizadeh is understood to have been the senior commander who oversaw the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.

Context: While Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the strike in Tehran, the dual targets in Beirut and Tehran within a few hours appears to be an impressive intelligence and operational achievement for Israel.

• Open speculation remains as to how Haniyeh was killed. Some reports suggest a missile was launched from outside Iran, while others believe the targeted killing was implemented from a closer proximity, implying operatives on the ground.
• This is the latest targeted strike inside Iran, further exposing the gaps in the regime’s internal security.
• As a formal guest of the Ayatollah, and staying in a ‘secure residence’ operated by the IRGC, Haniyeh’s death is seen in Iran as constituting a further psychological blow to the regime, which is likely also a factor in their consideration of response.
• According to the Iranian warning, a response may come directly from Iran – similar to the attack in April in which 300+ drones and missiles were fired at the Israeli home front. Alternatively, the possibility exists that Iran will utilise all of the members of its Axis of Resistance – in Syria, Iraq and Yemen – to carry out an integrated multi-theatre response.
• Israel will be partly reassured by US Secretary Austin’s support and will hope that the regional alliance between Israel, US and regional partners, known as Middle East Air Defence (MEAD), will be as effective as thwarting the Iranian attack in April.
• The strikes on Haniyeh and Shukr are the latest example of an Israeli tactic to target the top leadership in Hamas and Hezbollah.
  • In early January, Saleh Al-Arouri, Haniyeh’s deputy and one of the founders of the armed wing of Hamas, was killed in Beirut (although Israel did not take formal responsibility).
  • In mid-July, a strike in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing.  The confirmation of his death was formally recognised by Israel this morning.
  • In March, Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy was killed.
  • In April, an airstrike in Damascus killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in Syria, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

• Haniyeh, who has been Hamas’ political leader since 2017, is the highest -profile member of the group to be killed following the October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza.
• On October 7th he was recorded praying in celebration of the attacks, and called on West Bank Palestinians to join the battle.
• Today is the 300^th day since October 7^th, with 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. Inside Israel, hostage families and their supporters continue their campaign to pressure the government to move forward with the deal.
• According to Prime Minister Netanyahu the extended military campaign serves to increase the pressure on Hamas and to support Israel in the negotiations. Others are concerned Haniyeh’s death makes a deal harder to conclude.
• In parallel, IDF troops are continuing operational activity in Gaza.
  • In the Rafah area troops are currently operating in the area of Tel al-Sultan, where they dismantled a structure rigged with explosives that was used by Hamas terrorists.
  • In the area of Khan Yunis, launchers loaded with rockets and aimed toward Israeli territory were struck by the IDF.

Looking ahead: Following the memorial ceremony in Tehran, Haniyeh’s body will be flown to Doha for a formal burial.

• An Iranian response is anticipated in the coming days with Israel on a peak state of alert preparing for any scenario. Israel’s air defences are on maximum alert, the air force jets patrolling the skies and ground forces on heightened vigilance along all the borders.
• The head of Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said, “The Israeli Air Force defends and operates in all arenas of the war, enveloping the State of Israel with dozens of aircraft, manned and unmanned, ready and prepared within minutes for any scenario, in any arena. We will act against anyone planning to harm the citizens of the State of Israel, there Is nowhere that is too far for us to strike”
• So far the Israel’s Home Front command has not yet given any further instructions to the Israeli civilian population.

What’s happened: The IDF has confirmed it conducted a strike on Hezbollah number two Fuad Shukr last night, while Hamas have confirmed that its overseas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in the early hours of this morning.

In Beirut: First, in southern Beirut at around 7.40pm yesterday, high-ranking Hezbollah official Shukr was killed in an air strike in the city’s Dahiya Quarter.

• IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: “This evening, the IDF carried out a pinpoint attack in Beirut and killed Fuad Shukr, also known as Said Mohsin, the most senior commander in the Hezbollah terrorist organisation and the head of its strategic array. Mohsin also served as the right-hand man and adviser on the planning and prosecution of the war to Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.”
• It is thought that the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate successfully located Shukr in an eight-story apartment building, advising the Israeli Air Force of his whereabouts and of the opportunity for a strike. Lebanese media reported three killed in the attack, including two children, and at least 74 injured.

In Tehran: Later, at 2.00am local time, the head of Hamas’s Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in the Iranian capital, seemingly by a precision-guided missile fired directly through the window of the apartment in the military veterans building in which he was staying while attending the newly-elected Iranian president’s swearing-in ceremony.

• Unlike the strike on Shukr, Israel is yet to comment on the assassination of Haniyeh. Hamas, confirming Haniyeh’s death, said he had been killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike…” The office of the Palestinian President Abbas, whose Fatah faction is a rival to Hamas, said he “strongly condemned the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, deeming it a cowardly act and a serious escalation.”
• The New York Times reports this morning, citing two senior Iranian officials, that Iran was holding an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council in response to Haniyeh’s assassination.
• Iranian sources are also briefing that the missile which killed Haniyeh was fired from outside of Iran.

Context: Both assassinations are indicative of Israel’s ability to locate and strike Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. They testify to the sophistication of Israel’s intelligence and its ability to conduct precision strikes.

• Shukr was targeted for being ultimately responsible for Saturday’s Hezbollah rocket strike on Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, which killed 12 children and injured 40 others. A Hezbollah veteran of over 40 years, Shukr was also thought to have played a key role in the 1983 bombing of the US Marine Corps Barracks in Beirut which killed 241 US military personnel and wounded 128 others.
• In recent years, as head of Hezbollah’s Strategic Unit, Shukr had assumed responsibility for Hezbollah’s weapons programme, including the procurement of precise-guided missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, long-range rockets, and UAVs.
• Yediot Ahronot’s Ronen Bergman, quotes a high-ranking Israel official saying of Shukr, “He is Nasrallah’s secret-bearer and the person responsible for the organization’s military buildup. After Mustafa Badreddine’s death, he took some of his powers and his standing became stronger. He was considered to have very close relations with Quds Force officials in the Revolutionary Guard, and… will be perceived by the Iranians as a major loss. He is considered to be intelligent and judicious, a man in the shadows who operated professionally and over a very long period of time.”
• Israeli media also quotes Muhammad Ali Al-Husseini, secretary-general of the Islamic Arab Council in Lebanon, saying that Fuad Shukr had been the most important operational figure in Hezbollah. He said that in terms of hierarchy, Fuad Shukr had been number one, even before Nasrallah, on the security and operational level.
• During the over nine months of escalated conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, strikes on the Lebanese capital have been rare. The strike on the Shukr was the first since a January strike killed Hamas’s deputy leader abroad Saleh al-Arouri.
• Earlier this week, the Israeli Security Cabinet empowered Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant to decide on Israel’s response to the Majdal Shams attack, enabling quick decision-making and maintaining the element of surprise.
• Israel is thought to have advised Washington of the strike in advance. US State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel later said that “we’re continuing to work toward a diplomatic resolution that would allow Israeli and Lebanese civilians to return to their homes and live in peace and security. We certainly want to avoid any kind of escalation.”
• Patel reiterated that US support for Israel remained “ironclad”, that “Israel has every right to defend itself”, and “certainly faces threats like no other country does in that region of the world.”
• For fuller context and background on Hezbollah, the scale of the threat it poses, its ideology, history, and place within the Iranian axis, see BICOM’s recent briefing paper.
• For Israel – in particular the Mossad – to have the local intelligence in Tehran to have been able to locate the exact room in which Haniyeh was staying represents a spectacular success. It speaks to the sophistication of Mossad’s penetration of Iran, while the precision required to target him through his apartment window speaks to the sophistication and precision Israel is able to call upon for such targeted assassinations.
• It is also important that Israel chose to act in a relatively narrow moment of opportunity while Haniyeh was away from his Qatari base. It is to be assumed that Israel would also have possessed the intelligence and operational capacity to strike Haniyeh in Qatar. However, such an assassination would have been likely ruled out due to its likely impact on Israel-US relations, and to Qatar’s dual status as a backer and host of Hamas, on the one hand, and a mediator on the question of the hostages, on the other.
• Haniyeh is the most senior Hamas official killed since the star of the war in Gaza. He had been based in Qatar since replacing Khaled Mashal (himself the previous subject of an unsuccessful Israeli assassination attempt) in 2017. There, Haniyeh had been the most senior of Hamas’s overseas leadership – distinct from the local Gazan leadership headed by October 7th mastermind Yahya Sinwar. Three of Haniyeh’s sons and four of his grandchildren were killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza in April.
• Considered a relative pragmatist within Hamas, Haniyeh was a key figure in coordinating the Sunni Hamas’s relations with the Iranian Shiite axis.
• The assassinations serve as a further warning to the rest of the Hezbollah and Hamas leaderships that they may well be future targets. Over the last nine months, Israel has conducted several targeted assassinations, including Hamas’s Gazan number two Mohamed Deif, al-Arouri, and senior IRGC officer Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Looking ahead: While Israel will brace for a possible response from Hezbollah, the IDF confirmed that “there are no changes in the Home Front Command defensive guidelines. The IDF is currently conducting a situational assessment. If any changes will be made, an update will be released on the IDF and Home Front Command’s platforms.”