In this episode, recorded during a media briefing, Richard Pater speaks with Lianne Pollak-David about the remaining challenges following the release of all living hostages and President Trump’s multilateral summit in Sharm el-Sheikh. Lianne outlines the debate over establishing an international Arab security force in Gaza, and the regional shift toward a new “Abraham Alliance”.
Lianne Pollak-David is a Founding Partner of the Coalition for Regional Security and Strategic Consultant. She worked as an Adviser at the PM’s Office and the National Security Council, and is a former member of the Negotiation Team with the Palestinians.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:00:00 – 00:00:41:28
Welcome, everybody, to this BICOM briefing. My name is Richard Pater, the chief executive of BICOM. Today is the 15th of October. I think for myself and many Israelis, we are feeling rather jubilant after the last, events of the last couple of days. I was in Hostage Square just on Monday, where it kind of had a feeling that almost anything was possible, although, like as in regular times in Israeli history, full celebration is always tinged with sadness, because obviously we know that, Hamas have not yet delivered all the bodies of the hostages that remain in their control.
00:00:41:28 – 00:01:05:08
And that’s kind of before we can have a complete closing of the circle in any case. Today’s briefing is going to focus also on a slightly more positive and upbeat perspective of the potential of the regional alignment and specifically, following President Trump’s not only visit to Israel, but the, the multilateral conference in Sharm el-Sheikh. We’re going to be discussing those regional developments.
00:01:05:11 – 00:01:27:29
I’m delighted to introduce, the Lianne Pollak-David, who is our speaker for today. She’s an Israeli strategic consultant, having served both in IDF intelligence and as part of a negotiator as part of her role in the National Security Council within Israel’s Prime Minister’s office. I’ve also noticed in the end, you can tell us more about this, but you have a variety of UK connections as well.
00:01:28:05 – 00:01:47:21
Having studied at, at the NSC, having also worked in London and have have in the past worked with, Tony Blair’s Institute as well. So we can you can tell us more about that, but I’ll hand over to you to give an overall assessment, perhaps, as I said, following the meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh. And, what now follows on the regional front.
00:01:47:26 – 00:02:06:19
Thank you very much. Thank you very much indeed. Richard and Daniel. And, thank you, everyone, for joining. It’s a pleasure to be here with you today on these, these very historic days that we’re experiencing. Yes. I have a strong connection to the UK. I’d say, London is the second home to me. I spent, seven years living in London.
00:02:06:22 – 00:02:35:28
I did my master’s at LSC with achieving scholarship, worked for Tony Blair’s consultancy when this was still going on, and, for KPMG for many years in the UK. So, yeah, strong connection to the UK. And it’s a pleasure to speak to you today. I was also at the Hostage Square, on, various days, but of course, on Monday and it was almost surreal to I was broadcasting there live on national TV and, it was almost surreal.
00:02:35:28 – 00:03:13:11
We saw this split screen, you know, the living hostages coming back home, reuniting with their families, unbelievable images that we all yearned for every single day on the second half of the screen, we saw President Trump’s, speech, at the Israeli Knesset, really unbelievable moments. And in the background, whilst this was going on at this, at the hostage square, every few, minutes, I’d say 15 minutes, there was a helicopter or a military helicopter flying in a living hostage.
00:03:13:13 – 00:03:38:16
To if you go to the, nearby hospital and doing several rounds about the square and the everyone in the square screaming, to the sky. Really, to this, hostage, and they announced who that person is. Who’s that? Hostages. That is currently now looking at the square. So it’s really was like a Hollywood movie.
00:03:38:16 – 00:04:09:17
Surreal. Completely unbelievable. Image there. And I think that represents very much of where we are. So on one hand that the half split screen of closing that wound, starting the process of healing, which is very painful, as Richard mentioned. So, you know, you could see some bursts of, of, of, of celebrations, but it’s not really like that.
00:04:09:17 – 00:04:45:11
It’s much more complex. It’s much more painful. It’s a variety of feelings. It’s important that we’re now working on starting the healing process. And on the second split screen, really a message of hope, vision of a new chapter, potentially for Israel and for the region entirely, and even maybe for the world with President Trump. Basically. Bottom line, bringing back the word peace to the Israeli Knesset.
00:04:45:13 – 00:05:21:16
For two years, Israelis could not even say this word, could not even think about this word. Anyone who said the word peace would be delusional. And I think that we needed this move to we needed President Trump himself with all of his, background, personality skills and the fact that also he is a Republican president. And we have to admit that bringing that back this word to the Israeli people, I think that was a major shift.
00:05:21:19 – 00:05:50:06
Now, where are we really now? So I think that the first phase of, the Trump plan went by quite smoothly. So the release of the living hostages, I was expecting, there to be more problems on the first day. And I was positively surprised to see that there worked. So they all came back in one, go over a few hours.
00:05:50:08 – 00:06:23:22
They were relatively in better conditions than what we thought, which is good. I mean, of course, when you look, look deeper, you understand what really was going on with them. Most of them were held in cages, and were starved and were in really terrible terms. A lot of things that you cannot see with your own eyes, but are there that they’re standing on their boat to feed and they look vital and they understand what’s going on around them, more or less.
00:06:23:25 – 00:06:47:24
So this is a good start. And I think that that went by smoothly, and I was positively surprised. But I wasn’t surprised at all when Hamas started playing tricks with, the next step, which was the release of, the bodies of the, deceased or killed the hostages. And that was very much expected. And why is that the case?
00:06:47:24 – 00:07:12:01
Why do they do that? The reason why they do that? There are a few reasons, but one is, first of all, to show that they’re still in control. So they, you know, they want to basically give a message to the mediators, to Israel, to their own people that they still have cards to play with and they still have, control over the process.
00:07:12:01 – 00:07:38:00
And they can they can manipulate using those cards. So this is one thing. The second is, the psychological war that they played with, Israel, with the Israeli people. This is part of that war, basically to keep everyone on the edge to, show that they can do whatever they want. It’s really part of this psychological warfare.
00:07:38:03 – 00:08:19:07
And the less missiles they have, the more they will use these types of tools against us. What if, if and when they can? And of course, the biggest card that they have, which was the living hostages, is now no longer with them. So that means that with the remaining cards they will stretch the limits. So so right now it was a it is still a major test to, the Trump plan to the involvement of the mediators and how strongly the mediators will push to complete all of the the release of all of the deceased hostages.
00:08:19:07 – 00:08:39:19
How much leverage is President Trump going to put on this? So far, it’s been, quite successful in that respect. He was, very clear about this in his, recent statement that he’s not letting go of this, of this phase. And it’s only getting started. And I think that this is key because it’s a sticking point.
00:08:39:22 – 00:09:14:18
It’s a sticking point that before we can complete the release of all of the remaining bodies of the hostages, we will not be able to move to the next phase. There’s a complete consensus about this, not only internally in Israel, but between Israel and President Trump. So this is a sticking point. Another point where we are is we’re seeing that in every single place where the IDF has, retreated right now we’re at the, yellow line as the President Trump, defined it.
00:09:14:20 – 00:09:48:06
We’re seeing Hamas going back and, also massacring its own people. But we’re seeing, Hamas trying to get back control over these places with their limited resources. But still, this is a sign of, I would say, a certain weakness in, in the plan because, of course, ideally, what should have happened is when when the IDF retreated, there should have already been this new international inter Arab force in place back to back.
00:09:48:09 – 00:10:23:17
That would have been the right way to do it. And by the way, this was indeed discussed and planned for many, many months and various versions of this plan from various stakeholders. And unfortunately, the implement this is where the implementation, gets into play. We are now at the point where President Trump simply wanted to see this plan implemented, the hostages being released, and of course, every single day where the living hostages were were still in Gaza was detrimental, so that the sense of urgency was there.
00:10:23:24 – 00:11:04:04
But on the other hand, there still isn’t in place. This inter Arab international, security force. And it may take quite a few months to, to get it. I’m going to get it started. So we’re going to have a gap there. And this is another sticking point because every single day then Hamas controls, slaughters its own people, threatens its own people, has control over the humanitarian aid, is basically in power de facto is another day where it’s going to be harder to implement the next step.
00:11:04:06 – 00:11:37:01
So that’s another sticking point. And of course, even when we have this, security force in power, in control of some sort and in basically, in its place, there is a major question on whether it’s going to be able to disarm, really, because this is what we need. And there’s a consensus about this, again, not just in Israel and generally not just by President Trump, but this is what all of the regional players signed up for to disarm Hamas.
00:11:37:04 – 00:12:00:12
So who’s actually going to do it? Is it going to be Turkish soldiers? Is it going to be Indonesian soldiers? Who’s actually going to do this dirty work of dismantling Hamas, which has to be done because without it there’s no future for Gaza. I’m not even talking about the Israeli side of things. There simply is no future for the Gazans themselves.
00:12:00:14 – 00:12:26:04
So this is a major, major sticking point. And it’s going to to end, even if it’s very efficient, it’s going to take a while and Israel will have to sustain some sort of, security military freedom so that if there is an immediate threat, the IDF can retaliate, can respond. So this is another area where you see the implementation between the vision.
00:12:26:05 – 00:12:48:28
The vision is right. Absolutely right. And I can tell you that the vast majority of Israelis support this specific side of things. As well, because no IDF soldier wants to remain in Gaza. Every IDF soldier who came back from Gaza, to their families to their lives, was ecstatic about it. We all want somebody else to do this terrible job for us.
00:12:48:28 – 00:13:12:28
We pray for it. But the question is, is it going to really happen? And if it’s not going to happened? And how much freedom will the IDF have to take care of things, by itself. So that’s like another sticking point right there. The technocratic government, or the, how how did President Trump, say the the peace board.
00:13:12:28 – 00:13:47:02
Right. So the, the new peace Board that he would chair, that Tony Blair would have, probably a significant involvement if not only to lead it. That is something that has been cooking for a while behind the scenes. You probably most of you are probably aware it’s been pushed by various stakeholders, including the Israelis, some of some segments of the Israelis, but not just, from the very early stages of the war, it’s been cooking for a while, even before President Trump entered the white House.
00:13:47:04 – 00:14:17:13
And the idea here is basically Israel should not control Gaza for the long term. It’s a bad idea. On the other hand, the Palestinian Authority is simply not ready for this. They have to undergo, significant deep reforms to fight corruption, to stop incitement, to stop being terrorists. So they have a lot of work to do to correct the very bad behavior that they’ve been leading for many years.
00:14:17:15 – 00:14:39:10
And now they’re not they’re starting the process, which is good, but they’re being forced to do so, and it’s going to take them quite a few years to get to where they need to be. By the way, they’re being forced to do that by the moderate Arab countries, by the Emiratis mainly. So this is this is something that is happening, but it’s going to take a while for that to be implemented.
00:14:39:13 – 00:15:08:27
And so there’s no real authority. So who’s got actually going to be in Gaza that authority. And it’s really critical. Why is that critical. Because when we’re talking about the estimates of the reconstruction of Gaza, it brings us to between 60 to $90 billion estimates. And I would say that’s even on the low estimate right now. So it’s we haven’t seen anything of that magnitude in the region.
00:15:08:29 – 00:15:37:19
And it’s going to take roughly a decade. And the main thing there is to ensure, as opposed to previous rounds, that the money, the reconstruction money gets to the right places, gets to the right projects and doesn’t end up in the wrong hands. So it builds schools, and those schools will have to promote certain values and not summer camps inciting to kill Jews.
00:15:37:22 – 00:16:21:17
And it builds hospitals and not underground tunnels. And those hospitals. So there’s a major monitoring aspect here that has to be in play, which is why the international and rigorous inter Arab, involvement is so critical. Now, that all brings me to a paradigm shift. There’s a paradigm shift. What is that paradigm shift? First of all, Gaza, what President Trump did so smartly, in my view, and with his dealmaking skills, is he made Gaza into a problem which is not any more just an Israeli problem.
00:16:21:19 – 00:16:45:03
It’s a regional problem. It’s a regional challenge. And basically what he said to the regional players is stop talking about it, stop complaining about it. Put your money where your mouth is, put your skin in the game and start working to make Gaza into something else. What is that, something else? It’s no longer going to be an Iranian proxy.
00:16:45:06 – 00:17:05:24
He talks about the Riviera, right? Okay. Has the vision. But basically what is that Gaza going to be? It’s going to be a place where there’s moderate values that are going to be implemented in the schools and in the mosques. It’s going to be a place of business. It’s going to be a place of tourism. We can all you all are rich countries.
00:17:05:24 – 00:17:29:27
He talks about this money elements quite a bit. If you invest heavily in Gaza, that’s like a minor fraction of your wealth. So stop talking about it and put your money where your mouth is. And not only that, but boots on the ground. So you should you should see this difference. You know, yes, he’s sending a central Centcom.
00:17:29:29 – 00:17:55:13
He’s setting up the Centcom mechanism to oversight the security force. But that Centcom mechanism, it’s not going to have American boots on the ground in Gaza. It’s going to have potentially Egyptian, Turkish, Indonesian and others on the ground in Gaza. So it’s basically saying to those regional players, you need to start putting your boots on the ground, you’re going to disarm Hamas.
00:17:55:19 – 00:18:25:13
You’re going to put in, a law and order in this place until and you’re going to train up the next Palestinian forces until those are able to do the job themselves. This is a major shift. This is a new paradigm shift. Gaza is no longer just an Israeli problem. On the contrary, Israel should actually take a step back and those players should take a step and step forward.
00:18:25:15 – 00:18:52:07
Another major paradigm shift is more on the geopolitical level, and that’s what I want to focus on from now on, because historically we had, basically a bilateral route to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That was during the Annapolis process as well, which I was part of that theme of the Annapolis process. We were very optimistic. We were close, very close.
00:18:52:07 – 00:19:25:12
We got to, an agreement on almost 100% of the topics. But what happened in the end, and we have to say it clearly, the Palestinians chickened out. Why was it Olmert during his corruption files, etc.? Was it the fact that they couldn’t pull through with the deal? Nobody knows. It doesn’t matter. It failed. The second paradigm was about basically extending the regional, alliances, the Abraham Accords, which were an amazing success.
00:19:25:12 – 00:19:50:27
But what they did is they placed the Palestinian issue to the side, and it continued the paradigm of managing the conflict. We can manage the conflict. And let’s not let the Palestinians veto our integration in the region. So and one way, the Abraham Accords were very successful. And what’s happening in Israel and what’s going through somebody who’s not on mute, it would be helpful.
00:19:50:29 – 00:20:21:11
Yeah. So on one hand, there were tremendous success, but on the other hand, by ignoring the Palestinian issue, that blew up also in our face. So now where are we? Where are at a paradigm shift of yes to integration, yes to normalization. Now, after all the unbelievable military achievements of Israel in the region, looking at Lebanon, you know, where is Lebanon right now?
00:20:21:11 – 00:20:53:28
Lebanon now has, a moderate anti Iranian anti Hezbollah government looking at Syria, a major shift, the fall of the Assad regime and looking at the fact that Syria was always the, the, the, the backbone of the Iranian axis, and its logistical center. So it’s no longer that or potentially no, no, no, no longer that looking at Iran of where it is isolated, weakened.
00:20:53:28 – 00:21:19:29
And of course, after the 12 Days War, in a completely different position, looking at all of these factors, what we’re seeing emerging is potentially not just an extension of the Abraham Accords, but what we like to call in the coalition for a Regional Security and Abraham Alliance. So this is an alliance of all of the moderate and potentially moderate forces in the region.
00:21:19:29 – 00:21:50:27
Why do I say potentially? Because of course, there are questions, Mark, question marks about some of them. And we’ll talk about that. But the idea is that even if not everyone is exactly by the book moderate, it’s about pulling those forces together, disconnecting them from their ties with the Iranians, from their ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, and creating a regional force, a regional alliance where everyone wants to play ball.
00:21:50:27 – 00:22:18:06
Everyone wants to be a part of it. Why? Hey, because it’s led by the US, President Trump. Nobody wants to say no to President Trump B, because it’s, creates a lot of security benefits. So we saw how this regional, alliance acted behind the scenes during the Iranian attack. There were a lot of security interests in there, and that was all orchestrated by Centcom.
00:22:18:08 – 00:23:04:02
Some of these countries between Israel and others don’t even have diplomatic relations. And it doesn’t even matter because there was this coordination and integration there where especially, in intelligence and air defense. So security element, of course, but also economic and technology and innovation. So, you know, if, if we can make this work, the iMac corridor, which has been talked about for many, many years, which would completely change the course of trade, not just in the Middle East, but globally, that would change this region altogether and potentially bring this region to be the most stable, prosperous region in the world.
00:23:04:02 – 00:23:29:19
And everybody understands this now. And that’s why there is a once in a hundred years opportunity to make this happen. And within that, within that solving the Israeli-Palestinian issue or conflict, not from a place of, weakness, not from a place of Israel versus the Palestinians. This is a bilateral route or even a religious conflict. All of these paradigms.
00:23:29:19 – 00:23:48:26
No, it’s really a shift of where we want to be. Do the Palestinians want to be part of the Iranian proxy, of the Iranian alliance, or do they want to be part of the Muslim Brotherhood alliance, or do they want to be part of the Abraham Alliance? They need to choose who do they want to be part of?
00:23:48:28 – 00:24:26:25
So it’s really a completely different way of looking at things. And within that, also the fact that those regional players will play a significant role in the Israeli-Palestinian, negotiation table. So it would no longer be a bilateral table, it would be a regional table. And exactly the same way that what we’re of what we’re seeing right now in Gaza, the regional players will play an active role, a direct role in creating the right conditions for the Palestinians to be part of this Abraham alliance.
00:24:26:28 – 00:24:55:19
That is a completely new player. So look, talking again about those issues that for years and years have been an issue, a problem. So the incitements, for example, in schools I when I listen to the Emiratis and to the Saudis on how they plan to invest not only in Gaza but in the West Bank as well, the way that they plan to invest is completely different than what they did before.
00:24:55:20 – 00:25:24:05
It’s no longer a donation. First of all, it’s a project that has to show profitability and impact, etc. it’s going to be managed by them directly. It’s going to be monitored by them directly, and they’re not going to invest until they see that there are the assurances that what they want to see there in those, for example, network of schools, is going to be implemented I e moderate values.
00:25:24:07 – 00:25:49:21
So, so it’s it’s a completely new play. And with that in mind I can tell you that although it seems in the media that the Israelis don’t want to progress and are in a constant state of war and revenge, that is completely not the case. The vast majority of Israelis and we’ve seen this in polls that we did consistently.
00:25:49:23 – 00:26:22:03
They have a hard time, talking about a Palestinian state, not because it’s like not the end game altogether, but because talking about a Palestinian state right now is completely detached from reality. So the recognition first, move that we saw, led by President Macron, led by the Saudis, and also taking part by the UK as well, is something that the Israelis ridicule.
00:26:22:03 – 00:26:51:15
They think it’s completely detached from reality and do not support. But President Trump’s plan, they can support and they do support. Why do they support it? Because it is connected to the realities on the ground. It is pragmatic and it focuses on bringing the regional players to, work together to create the conditions so that separation from the Palestinians would be possible in the future.
00:26:51:17 – 00:27:26:04
And then it would wouldn’t be recognition first. It would be legitimacy first. So the Palestinians have to work on creating themselves, building themselves up as a legitimate partner that doesn’t hate Israel, that doesn’t want to eradicate Israel, that has the capability to, take care of potential terrorist organizations themselves. And, and that basically promotes moderate ideas. So once that happens, most Israelis will support, a resolution.
00:27:26:05 – 00:28:11:00
Most Israelis don’t want to settle in Gaza. I think it’s a terrible idea. Most Israelis do not want to would annex the West Bank at all. Most Israelis want to live in peace, security, and build a prosperous, future for their children. And if there’s a way to get there, which is connected to the realities on the ground, which is pragmatic, which keeps Israel’s security, interests in mind, first, Israelis are on board, which is why there is absolute consensus, excluding a for, of course, the far right, ultra right, crowd, which is a minority in Israel.
00:28:11:02 – 00:28:34:14
There’s absolute consensus with President Trump’s plan and where he’s taking us. Where does that impact politically? We can discuss this a bit. I’m sure that you are interested in that aspect, as well. So I’ll stop there. I’ll just summarize in one sentence and then we’ll open for questions. But basically where we are, we are progressing with the Trump plan.
00:28:34:16 – 00:29:01:19
There is consensus, in the Israeli public to support it. There are sticking points, major sticking points. We’ll also talk about Qatar and Turkey’s involvement, because that’s another strategic sticking point that we need to discuss that I failed to mention. So there are sticking points, but we have to follow through with the plan. And the issue is that we should not stop there.
00:29:01:22 – 00:29:34:11
You know, the coalition for Regional Security, we had, billboard campaign, going on in Israel whilst President Trump was here. And the main slogans, that we called out with there was with President Trump with, with coughs face on it with Jared Kushner and with Marco Rubio. So billboards all over Israel and the main, the main message was don’t stop all the way to normalization, which is where the Israeli public wants to be, including all the various elements that I discussed.
00:29:34:16 – 00:29:43:06
So I’ll stop here.