In this episode, Dan Ritterband speaks with Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman about the new Israel-Lebanon framework agreement, the US-Iran MOU, and the state of US-Israel relations. Lerman assesses Lebanon’s commitment to disarming Hezbollah and discusses the ambiguities in the US-Iran MOU, the risks to American deterrence, and the possibility of renewed escalation over Iran’s nuclear programme.
Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman was Deputy Director for foreign policy and international affairs at Israel’s National Security Council. Prior to this he held senior posts in IDF Military Intelligence for over 20 years. He is currently Vice President of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:07:06 – 00:00:43:02
Dan Ritterband
Hello and welcome to the BICOM podcast. I’m Dan Ritterband and today is Thursday the 2nd of July. I’m delighted to introduce our guest, Dr Eran Lerman, who is a retired IDF colonel. He was deputy director at the Israel’s National Security Council, as well as serving for over 20 years in the IDF military intelligence. He currently teaches new course of strategy, diplomacy and security at the Shalom College in Jerusalem, post graduate programs at Tel Aviv University and the National Defense College.
00:00:43:04 – 00:00:59:00
Dan Ritterband
His connection with the UK is that he. A little while ago, he gained his PhD from the London School of Economics as well as a mid-career career MPA from Harvard University. Doctor Lerman, thank you, and welcome back to the podcast.
00:00:59:02 – 00:01:11:01
Eran Lerman
Yeah. Thank you. And I hope my years at LSE and Harvard did not blunt my capacity for seeing things, as they are.
00:01:11:03 – 00:01:41:12
Dan Ritterband
A different place now as it was then. I think with all these Ivy League schools. Yeah, I was hoping if we could in today’s podcast, if we could cover three different areas, which was number one is assessing the current new framework, or I should say, the historic new agreement between Lebanon and its chances of a successful implementation. It’d be interesting to hear your thoughts on the US and Iran MOU and the repercussions for Israel.
00:01:41:14 – 00:01:49:06
Dan Ritterband
And finally, how do you think the current status of Israel, US relations are over to you?
00:01:49:08 – 00:02:26:11
Eran Lerman
Tall order. Let me start with the MOU with Lebanon signed on the 26th of June. It is, I would say, a very important document in and of itself for four important reasons. First of all, the actual act of signing in the presence of each other after the direct negotiations. I would remind you that the negotiations for the economic socioeconomic zone a few years back, we’re not even conducted between Israelis and Lebanese.
00:02:26:11 – 00:02:58:02
Eran Lerman
They were Israelis talking to Americans and Lebanese talking to Americans. Now we have an agreement directly negotiated and direct and openly signed with the declared intent of advancing towards cool recognition of each other’s sovereign sovereignty and ultimately, peace. Not the first time we’ve signed an agreement with Lebanon before, which was a peace treaty and in fact was ratified by the Knesset in 18 1983.
00:02:58:04 – 00:03:30:23
Eran Lerman
It disintegrated very quickly because Assad very sweetly said to Amin, Jamal, you want to be blown up like your brother, then go ahead. So that’s how the Syrians took care of that issue and many other issues, mind you, from Rafik on that. And so that fell apart. But now we see a Lebanese government willing to courageously take a stance in the open that previous Lebanese government did not.
00:03:30:24 – 00:04:26:06
Eran Lerman
And this is after, frankly, major damage and devastation brought about by military action on Lebanese soil. So, for them, it is, of course, obviously a necessary step, but also a courageous step. The second thing is it openly states that the goal is the disarmament of all non-governmental militias, which obviously is a code word for Hezbollah and a few senior elements which still hold to arms, but essentially declaring an intention to put an end to Hezbollah’s ability to wage war from Lebanese soil on behalf of non-Lebanese interests, namely Iran, and as the puppet master of that organization.
00:04:26:12 – 00:05:03:06
Eran Lerman
This is a cardinal positive development in and of itself. Thirdly, it has a modular implementation mode, which is something that Israel has always tried to insist on going back, if you wish, to the days of Kissinger step by step approach and then the way Oslo was supposed to work with one step, followed by a period of observation as to implementation only after which we would take the next step.
00:05:03:08 – 00:05:14:05
Dan Ritterband
I mean it be fair to say that’s due to the joint cynicism of both sides, that either side is acting in good faith. So, taking it step by step is.
00:05:14:07 – 00:05:42:18
Eran Lerman
Essentially that also not so much cynicism as well based doubt about the abilities which I will come back to of the Lebanese to actually deliver. But this, this modularity means that Israel is actually not only not obliged, but there’s also a recognition of the fact that Israel is entitled to stay on Lebanese soil as long as the full implementation of this previous aspect.
00:05:42:19 – 00:06:25:01
Eran Lerman
This has not been carried out. So, this is also this is another very important element. The fourth is not in the text but is implicit in the situation. This is a radical turnaround in. This connects the Lebanese issue with the next issue, namely what’s happening with the Iranians. It is an American reversal of aspects that seem to be implicit or even explicit in the MoU signed with the Iranians virtually by Trump and his counterpart.
00:06:25:03 – 00:07:09:01
Eran Lerman
On the 17th of June. So, we then essentially within nine days, we had a transformation on a crucial aspect of the situation. The Iranian MoU included clauses about Lebanon, in fact, allow the Iranians to claim that they are not obliged to implement what they are committed to vis a vis homeless, and so on. The less Israel withdrawals from Lebanon and I and given the rationalization of the agreement, it seemed as if we are about to set foot on a very dangerous slippery slope.
00:07:09:03 – 00:07:38:09
Eran Lerman
And I’ll come back to it. But this agreement with Lebanon, and I don’t want to go into speculations about who in the American administration pushed for the first and who goes for the second. The media is rife with it. I don’t think we should lend as Israelis. We should not lend ourselves to these. That’s for the historians and the Bob Woodward’s of the world right after the fact.
00:07:38:10 – 00:08:13:21
Eran Lerman
But clearly, something changed in the basic posture of the American administration on this question, because there’s no Iran in the Lebanese MoU. It is out of the gate, which is absolutely crucial and a very important signal that then we are not the position of abiding by any Iranian outlandish demand. The main question mark that hangs over all of this is very simple and straightforward.
00:08:13:22 – 00:08:44:19
Eran Lerman
Can the Lebanese military deliver? It has elements within it which are influenced by Hezbollah. It operates under the almost overt threat of a civil war, or at least of a clash. We have to bear in mind and remember that in May 2008, two years after what we call the Second Lebanon War, which ended in, in in Israeli withdrawal under a UN resolution.
00:08:44:19 – 00:09:19:23
Eran Lerman
But Hezbollah suffered badly in Israel said at the time, 2006 that had he known what would happen, how Olmert and Paris would react, he may not have launched that war. But two years later, if you want to know who actually won in 2006, you have to go to 2008. The Lebanese government tried for two fairly simple things to take control of security in the Beirut airport and to take control of the electronic spectrum.
00:09:20:00 – 00:09:53:21
Eran Lerman
Both of these were challenges to Hezbollah points of power, and they came out into the streets and simply ran the Lebanese military off the streets and defeated them quite quickly and impose their will. Now the question is, are we going to look at another May 2008 or even worse? But have we weakened Hezbollah sufficiently to create an opportunity for a different outcome?
00:09:53:23 – 00:10:04:20
Eran Lerman
And one of the key elements is I’ve written recently for Jesus, but also institute strategy of security, which I’m the vice president.
00:10:04:22 – 00:10:42:14
Eran Lerman
One of the elements is has to do with whether or not there are cracks now within the Shia community in Lebanon. The numerically by now, quite certainly the largest of the three key communities of Lebanon. We don’t know the real numbers in Lebanon, because any attempt to have a census would destroy the constitutional balances created in the back in the 1930s and reveal new realities which nobody wants to be to expose.
00:10:42:20 – 00:11:15:08
Eran Lerman
But the Shia are powerful, clearly a powerful community now. And Hezbollah is their representative. But Hezbollah has brought nothing but grief to the Shia. Over the last three years of war, destruction, displacement, heavy losses, and before that, it drew them into a catastrophic involvement in the butchery of the Syrian people and the Assad. And the time has come for brave voices.
00:11:15:08 – 00:11:50:11
Eran Lerman
And I believe that there are such voices to read them to read the Shia community of Isabella’s overbearing presence, and to tell them that they cannot wage as a Lebanese civil war or a war with Israel on behalf of a community which will be the main victim if that happens. So, we are at the at the cusp of very important, very important test of the ultimate question is Lebanon a state or an empty share?
00:11:50:13 – 00:12:20:20
Eran Lerman
It is it acted in the signature of this agreement and in the statements which came before it and after it. It was making the noises of a state, whether it can act on the ground as, as, as a state must. I think the first definition of sovereignty, and if this is going this is going to be the test is Lebanon state.
00:12:20:22 – 00:13:07:23
Eran Lerman
We don’t know yet, but we have given this a chance to be tested. So, this is what the essence of what is. It’s taken the Lebanese MoU. As for the Iranian MoU, we are waiting into very, very uncertain words, even more uncertain than the Lebanese. And this is frankly, because again, I don’t want to judge our American ally or their leadership in any way, but somehow not only the MoU itself, which is more holes than cheese, as they say in Switzerland.
00:13:08:00 – 00:13:33:07
Eran Lerman
Not only in terms of its content. The ambiguity is about how much the ambiguity is about the nuclear file that needs yet to be negotiated. The Americans are claiming that the Iranians consented to IAEA inspections. The Iranians say never. The Americans are saying the Iranians consented to having the Humboldt Strait open. The Iranians are saying, no, no, we are going to charge.
00:13:33:09 – 00:14:17:03
Eran Lerman
And then if we and we are talking to the Amani about how to how to arrange those charges because the actual passage is through Omani waters, the better the better passage is real money would the whole the whole thing is shot through with ambiguities and clear what troubled me. And it may yet fall, fall apart, or else we will discover, to our positive surprise, that the Iranians have actually internalized the beating that they’ve suffered and are willing to go ahead with the nuclear clauses that are important to America, important to the world, and also important to Israel.
00:14:17:05 – 00:14:35:22
Eran Lerman
It may yet happen that is yet to be discovered. What really was really troubling, and problematic was the rationalization offered for the agreed, because the point was made that.
00:14:35:24 – 00:15:16:18
Eran Lerman
The Strait of Hormuz or the siege on the Strait of Hormuz cannot be broken by force, Trump said more or less as much, and therefore the Iranians have a stranglehold. Say they have the whip hand, but even further, they have a stranglehold on the world economy. The thing was, Trump himself used the image of Herbert, or the memory of what happened to Herbert Hoover, who presided over the Great Crisis in 1929, which ruined not only the American economy but the world economy.
00:15:16:20 – 00:15:50:03
Eran Lerman
One third of Americans ended up unemployed. You know, buddy, can you spare a dime? If you know that whole history to put to put himself to use that imagery is basically saying the Iranians have in a position to bring about a global economic catastrophe and ruin the American economy. And therefore, I signed the agreement. If you do this, you basically signal to these power mad IRGC rulers of Iran, let’s not delude ourselves.
00:15:50:03 – 00:16:08:14
Eran Lerman
There’s a possession hung on the wall for decoration, and there are diplomats, some of whom speak decent English and all of that. But Iran is run by Waheed and the IRGC elements with Mujtaba Khamenei as a I don’t know what exactly.
00:16:08:16 – 00:16:10:20
Dan Ritterband
A couple cut out.
00:16:10:22 – 00:16:43:07
Eran Lerman
Sort of. Yes. We don’t really know if he really lives or at all or but he’s clearly if he is, he is in cahoots with the IRGC leadership. So, I speak about Iran as the in terms of an urgency regime. It’s not the old supreme leader system with the IRGC at his elbow. It’s the IRGC in the seat of power, with a supreme leader limply hanging at their side.
00:16:43:09 – 00:17:11:22
Eran Lerman
These people, what they what they heard loud and clear was we won. America lost. We can lay down terms to the Americans, to Israel, to the international community. We have won a resounding victory from what one British colleague of mine called me to call the crank. China, Russia, Iran, North Korea alignment. And we are changing the face of the world.
00:17:11:22 – 00:17:21:04
Eran Lerman
And, you know, American hegemony. American.
00:17:21:06 – 00:17:51:24
Eran Lerman
Iranians from times referred to as the American pride of power. All of this has been broken by the might of the Iranian revolutionary stance that a strong misreading of what actually happened, but was very delusional in many ways, but with very real consequences. So that had to be to some extent correct. And there were two corrections coming up.
00:17:52:01 – 00:18:23:14
Eran Lerman
One was the Lebanese agreement, which basically told the Iranians, you’re not in control of the game region wide. And the second was Trump reverted once again to blunt threats. The problem is that when your threats are too blunt, they actually or to flowery, you actually diminish rather than enhance the credibility of your deterrent. And that’s a problem.
00:18:23:16 – 00:18:45:12
Eran Lerman
It’s a professional problem. Deterrence has to be credible in the future of the world. Hang was hanging for, for, for decades on the credibility of the American deterrent. Otherwise, Europe would have been overrun by 1956. But the.
00:18:45:14 – 00:19:11:23
Eran Lerman
These I will kill all you know Iran was no longer exist and all that that kind of language. I’m not sure it has the necessary effect. We shall find out. But right now, the negotiations are not advancing as effectively as we would have been, would have wanted. And the possibility of a very quick deterioration is still there.
00:19:12:00 – 00:19:46:16
Eran Lerman
Enough. It’s enough for one hanker to be actually set on fire with severe loss of life, for an American base to be hit with a loss of American lives to for all, for us to go very quickly back to full-scale, full-scale confrontation. Some people are speculating that Trump is biding his time for the three M’s the, the, the, the Mundial, the markets in the midterms, which are not due until November.
00:19:46:17 – 00:19:53:00
Eran Lerman
But then, you know, he would still have two years to more than two years to do his business.
00:19:53:06 – 00:19:57:22
Dan Ritterband
Slightly in Congress with the election cycle in Israel.
00:19:57:24 – 00:20:25:22
Eran Lerman
By the time of the midterms, we would know also where Israel went politically, which could add to the complexity of the situation. But no Israeli government, no, none, even if I go along, is miraculously, I don’t know, it’s a miracle, but or not. But if we unbelievably end up in experiments, he wouldn’t still need to deal with the Iranian nuclear ratio very much in the same manner as Netanyahu.
00:20:25:23 – 00:20:40:15
Eran Lerman
If anyone ever wants peace in the Middle East in the full sense of the word, the one thing to make sure is that it is not done under the shadow of the IRGC regime is the bomb.
00:20:40:17 – 00:20:41:04
Dan Ritterband
Right?
00:20:41:04 – 00:21:05:05
Eran Lerman
So, all of this is still open towards the future. And finally, the third subject, I mean, I’m trying to cover broad range of things in rather in a trot. The American Israeli relationship right now reminds me, and I use this phrase in one of my papers, of the opening line of A Tale of Two Cities. It was the best of times.
00:21:05:05 – 00:21:55:03
Eran Lerman
It was the worst of times. It is the best of times. In terms of our professional relationship with the US deep state, the military and the intelligence community. What they have seen. And I’m not, you know, too proud here. It’s my brother in the Air Force, not I, but what they have seen of Israeli capabilities of Israeli how is real manages its military assets, how it works in terms of planning and executing air operations, the role of the intelligence community, the, the capabilities that they’ve been exposed to, I think have left a profound long term mark on the American defence establishment and the soldiers who the American liaison officers who walked around in the
00:21:55:04 – 00:22:29:01
Eran Lerman
in in the Israeli with the Israeli counterparts. For the first time, we’ve seen Americans deployed for military for active military purposes, not only for the defence of Israeli airspace against the incoming missiles, which was rich, did happen back in 1990, 1991 and again in 2003, but also for offensive operations. Ben Gurion Airport was turned into an American Air Force base, half of it and traffic was contained.
00:22:29:01 – 00:23:20:02
Eran Lerman
As a result, it was full of American tankers for all to see, and that that is a very important and long-term positive aspect. But meanwhile, we have, first of all, exposed to the fragility of doing business with the present administration. Again, I’m not going to go into nuances of who has what influence on the president, but there was a deep sense of alarm and, frankly, dejection in Israel when Trump signed the MOU and others in the administration started downloading on the Israeli leadership, on Israel, on the Israeli American relationship and, and basically acting to remind us of our dependency.
00:23:20:04 – 00:23:50:03
Eran Lerman
We haven’t heard such language since Kissinger’s reassessment in 1975, which ended up, by the way, with 76 members of senators signing a letter to the Ford administration warning them on this. I don’t think this could happen as easily now. So yeah, that was a problem. And the other major problem which is now emerging is that elements within the Democratic Party have drifted off the deep end.
00:23:50:08 – 00:24:50:06
Eran Lerman
As far as we’re concerned. This guy Plattner, who won the candidacy for the Senate in Maine, is openly anti-Israeli, but much worse in a couple of others come down a doorway. And of course, we still have Ilhan Omar and Rasheeda in Congress. But now we have people who openly supported Hamas, women so openly supported Hamas directly after the service of October, not because Israel did this or that in Gaza, but before we ever reacted, when the bodies of our butchered people, men, women and children were still lying about, they already celebrated this woman, Daria Lisa Chevalier, who won the 13th district in New York against the men of the Hispanic establishment with the backing
00:24:50:06 – 00:25:47:10
Eran Lerman
of Zoran Mamdani. That’s an abomination. The woman in Denver who won the district after she refused to denounce an attack on, on Jews who were demonstrating for the Israeli hostages in which a person was murdered. This is this is an abomination. This is not the Democratic Party that that we grew up to know. I think serious people like James Carville, who helped Clinton win in his neck, and Obama are now saying that this is the party has to split the needs to come between the DS and the Democratic Socialists of America and what the Democratic Party was and has been all these years is and what has been all these years now?
00:25:47:10 – 00:26:01:06
Eran Lerman
Of course there are there are other voices. There are pros, really, progressives like Richard Torres, there are known progressives who are increasingly worried, but there’s a dangerous drift.
00:26:01:08 – 00:26:34:00
Eran Lerman
Within the Democratic Party. And of course, it is mirrored in the presence, although much less enhanced, and in fact is going to be cut down significantly of anti-Israeli infections. In fact, anti-Semitic elements within the Republican far right, the MAGA elements like Massie, who lost his seat in Kentucky, and this woman in Carolina who was leaving of her own will.
00:26:34:02 – 00:27:05:17
Eran Lerman
I have to say that the Trump administration moved decisively against them. But they exist also. The other edge. We call this the horseshoe, where in Israel, the far right and the demented left actually meet. And we don’t know if this you know, I one of the most the saddest quote I know quotes I know from English poetry is Yeats.
00:27:05:19 – 00:27:41:17
Eran Lerman
The centre cannot hold and I’m not sure the centre to hold and to ensure against this aspect, the Prime Minister of Israel, some people, me included, advocated that we begin to give to let go of the foreign military financing aspect of the relationship. A nation with more than $600 billion in GDP, GDP per capita, well higher than that of Britain.
00:27:41:18 – 00:27:46:01
Dan Ritterband
If I’m aware of this.
00:27:46:03 – 00:28:16:07
Eran Lerman
And higher than that of Japan now for the last decade, and of Germany that courtesy of the immensely powerful shekel, which kills a lot of Israelis who kept dollars. But basically, we don’t need $3.8 billion as an obligation of the American taxpayer to us down the road. We needed it when we were surrounded by powerful and well-equipped enemies.
00:28:16:07 – 00:28:35:23
Eran Lerman
We still need to be to keep our qualitative military edge that’s etched into American legislation. But the FMF component, which is crucial for the for the yearly vote of Congress, I think this is something that’s down the road over the next ten years we can negotiate out.
00:28:36:00 – 00:28:52:13
Dan Ritterband
Well, I have to say, the news, the news this week about various countries looking at purchasing Israel’s, their defence systems and, you know, with no stability in the Gulf states, those systems are going to be needed even more. Well.
00:28:52:16 – 00:29:19:03
Eran Lerman
I think it’s an open secret that we had our own Iron Dome side by side with an Egyptian fighter pilot defending the United Arab Emirates. Anyone told you that ten years ago you would have said, you know, it would put a hat on next time when you’re in the sun. So, there you go. So, I think I’ve always short my time, but.
00:29:19:05 – 00:29:27:22
Dan Ritterband
So, this has been fantastic. Thank you so much and we look forward to having you back again on the podcast sometime soon.
00:29:27:24 – 00:29:31:00
Eran Lerman
Hopefully for some boring reason.
00:29:31:02 – 00:29:32:10
Dan Ritterband
Thank you.
00:29:32:12 – 00:29:33:09
Eran Lerman
You’re welcome.