What’s happened: A primary election was held for the main left-wing Zionist party. The Democrats, led by Yair Golan and formed by the merger of Labour and Meretz, held an open election where party members could select up to eight candidates on the list.

• The vote garnered much attention from local media, and the turnout was remarkably high with over 97 thousand voters casting their vote underscoring Golan’s efforts to rejuvenate the left.
• The turnout means that over 86 per cent of party members voted, a figure unseen in primary elections in Israel, where turnout normally hovers between 50 and 70 per cent. The Democrats are currently polling at around 11 mandates.
• A vote by the Likud Central Committee to authorise a new procedure and contingency plan for drawing up the list of Likud candidates for the upcoming general election – scheduled for today – was abruptly postponed this morning.
• At stake were both the Prime Minister’s demand to reserve eight slots on the list for his preferred candidates and an alternative procedure for composing the rest of the list in the event that a formal primary election would need to be cancelled due to renewed fighting with Iran.
• The dispute over the Likud primary has turned into a fault line about the power of Prime Minister Netanyahu over party institutions, the conflict between the party’s base and its need for electability, and tension over the security situation.
• Other than Likud and The Democrats, no other parties are planning to hold primaries for their list of candidates for the general election, scheduled for October 27.
• Hadash, the Arab majority party led for more than a decade by Ayman Odeh, held a party congress in May where Yousef Jabareen was selected to succeed Odeh. Delegates at the party congress also selected the party’s top candidates for its Knesset list, which is expected to be combined with at least one other Arab party for the general election.
• A raft of new polls shows little  change in the overall distribution of voter preferences. In all polls, the current governing coalition scores 50 or 51 mandates, and the opposition 9including Arab parties) 69 or 70. In at least one poll, opposition parties are able to reach 61 mandates even without the support of any Arab parties, whose combined total usually hovers around 10, but in most this is not the case.
• Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party has established a significant lead over the Together (Beyachad) list created by merging former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s two parties. In the most recent N12 poll, Yashar on its own leads Likud, with 24 mandates projected for Eisenkot’s party versus 23 for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s.
• Eisenkot is also polling above Netanyahu in head-to-head questions about suitability for Prime Minister 43% to 37%, with 14% saying neither and 6% ‘don’t know’.

Context: The same N12 poll posed follow-up questions separately to supporters of the coalition and the opposition with remarkable results. Among coalition supporters, normally understood to be more conservative and nationalistic, there was very high support (59 per cent in favour and only 19 per cent opposed) for the Government’s concessions to Ultra-Orthodox parties on the divisive conscription issue, which runs counter to the conventional wisdom that a right-wing public would be alienated by such moves.

• Opposition voters, when asked what the preferred course of action would be in the event that the Netanyahu coalition loses but the Zionist opposition parties on their own cannot reach 61 mandates, prefer by a significant margin the option of relying on a partnership with an Arab party. This was the preferred response of 44 per cent, versus 28 per cent who preferred to hold another election, 13 per cent who preferred a unity government with the Likud, and 6 per cent who preferred a coalition with an ultra-Orthodox party.
• The Prime Minister’s insistence on eight reserved spots for his choices is seen by outside observers as an attempt to push down some of the most outspoken provocateurs in the party’s ranks, including firebrands May Golan, Tali Gotiv, and Shlomo Karhi. All three are highly popular among party activists, and the first two are particularly popular on social media among right-wing voters. But all three are seen as liabilities in turning to the general public.
• With the party only polling at around 23 mandates, eight reserved seats for the Prime Minister’s choice, together with other set-asides for regional representation, would leave very few seats in realistic slots up for grabs for general primary voters. Under the current plan, the Prime Minister will select the candidates for positions 3, 5, 9, 11, 15, 18, 26, and 31 on the list.
• The Likud primary method also reserves seats for representatives of geographical regions, such as the Galilee or the Negev. The party also reserves one slot for an oleh (recent immigrant) and a minority (Druze, Circassian, or other non-Jew). These reserved slots are normally not held for politicians serving as ministers in Government. This, together with the party’s projected shrinking by a third (from 32 mandates to something in the low twenties) puts even more pressure on incumbent politicians, who will have to fight over a small pool of primary slots that will leave most of them out of the next parliament.
• All this has come to a head with the Prime Minister’s insistence on the central committee’s approval for a contingency plan in the event of a security flare-up that would let him convene an organising committee to put together the entire list and cancel the primaries altogether. The party’s constitution committee approved the plan over the vehement objections of some of the party’s MK’s, but the central committee vote scheduled for this morning was postponed until at least next Sunday.
• Members of the Democrats Party were asked to select between six and eight candidates to populate all the spots on the party’s list from position 2 downward. Position 1 is reserved for party leader Yair Golan.
• Many spots on the list are reserved for minority or female representation, but unlike in the Likud primary method, these serve as boosts on primary voting rather than a separate mechanism in parallel to primary voting. On gender, the party uses the so-called “zipper method”: the number 2 position goes to the top vote getter, which is then followed by the number 3 position which goes to the top vote getter of the opposite gender; Each position following that is alternated by gender. Party rules also provide a boosted ranking for three categories of representatives: former Meretz representatives, rural representatives (from the kibbutz or moshav movement), and minority representatives (from Israel’s Arab and Druze communities).
• The highest number of votes was received my Naama Lazimi. She was followed by Gilad Kariv, Efrat Rayten, Yaya Fink, Gaby Lasky, Omri Ronen, and Michal Rozin. The zipper method will not need to be employed for at least the first ten spots on the list. Lasky and Rozin’s vote count mean that the boost for Meretz representatives will also not be necessary. Soumaya Bashir earned the tenth spot on the list, so it is likely that the boost for an Arab representative will also not be needed.
• One notable outcome was the successful performance of leaders of the protest movement of the last few years (against the judicial reform and for a hostage deal), including Yaya Fink, Omri Ronen, and Moshe Radman.
• Another notable outcome was the poor performance of anti-clerical activist Naor Narkis, a social media star with very strong views against religious coercion and social privileges for the ultra-Orthodox public, but also the source of a lot of suspicion among left-wing figures that he is not committed to other positions that are important to them, especially on questions related to the occupation and the conduct of the war in Gaza.

Looking ahead: Party lists are submitted to the Central Election Committee over a two-day period 40 days before the general election, schedule for October 27. The two large centrist parties, Together and Yashar, neither of which exist in their current form in the outgoing Knesset, are expected to put together lists by an organising committee under the watchful eyes of their respective chairmen.

• There is still some uncertainty about other party formations in the political centre. A Yesodot Yisrael party led by former MK Yoaz Hendel and MK Chili Tropper, who had been a popular minister from Benny Gantz’s party, is polling at just around the electoral threshold of 3.25 per cent, usually just below and sometimes just above.
• Speculation abounds about the anticipated moves of Benny Gantz himself, as well as media personality Dedi Simchi, though they consistently poll below the threshold too. Opposition figures consistently accuse them of trying to siphon centrist votes to the benefit of Netanyahu.
• There is still no final decision about whether some (or even all) the Arab parties will run as a joint list. A joint list is projected to secure the Arab parties more total mandates, but could severely limit the ability of one of its constituent members to support an opposition coalition.

The Knesset formally voted to dissolve itself early Friday morning. 

• Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana concluded the session: “The time is 5:18 am, July 17, 2026. The next meeting will be held some two weeks after the election. This meeting, this session of the 25th Knesset is concluded.”
• Earlier Ohana had expressed hope that “we will return here soon and remember that, despite all our disagreements, we are not enemies, but partners, even if political rivals, and that we are all part of one people and one country,” 
• The dissolution of the Knesset was approved as part of the Party Funding Law. Sixty-two MKs from the coalition voted in favour, while the opposition did not vote against it. 
• The coalition-sponsored legislative procedure continued during the night where they passed a variety of laws including:
  • Splitting the powers of the attorney general. From January 2027, ministers will be permitted to reject guidance from the attorney general which is currently legally binding.
  • Freezing the arrests of ultra-Orthodox  draft dodgers. Though this law was immediately frozen by the High Court of Justice, pending a hearing. 
  • An amendment to the Defence Service Law stating that compulsory service in the IDF will be extended two months and now last 32 months. 
  • The communications law that significantly expanding government oversight of media outlets.
• More of these laws are expected to be challenged in the High Court.

What’s happened: In a voting spree before the Knesset dissolves at the end of the week, the government succeeded in passing two laws that acceded to the demands of the ultra-Orthodox parties.

• On Monday, Basic Law: Torah Study was passed declaring Torah study a “fundamental value” of the Jewish people and the State of Israel. The law passed with 63:52 majority.
• On Tuesday, the Knesset passed a bill into law which will see the ultra-Orthodox deserters exempted for several months from arrest, investigation and enforcement proceedings if they are recognised as yeshiva students. The final vote passed by 58 votes to 45.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu was in the Knesset building but did not attend the vote itself.
• Coalition MKs Sharren Haskel, Yuli Edelstein and Dan Illouz, together with MK Moshe Solomon (Religious Zionist Party), voted against the measure.
• MKs Michal Woldiger and Ofir Sofer of the Religious Zionist Party, as well as Minister Gila Gamliel and MKs Galit Distel Atbaryan and Moshe Passal of the Likud, were present in the Knesset plenum but abstained in the vote.
• Following the approval of the law, Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel announced her resignation. “It is a law that harms servants and the security of the state, it harms those who have served the state for three years and paid a heavy price,” she said.

Context: The quasi-constitutional recognition of Torah studies was a key demand of the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and UTJ, which support the Netanyahu government. The ultra-Orthodox communities say that military service is incompatible with their religious values.

• The issue has been long disputed and is currently one of the most politically divisive issues in Israeli politics, with opponents of the exception calling for more equal sharing of the burden, especially following October 7. Since then almost a thousand soldiers, including reservists, have been killed.
• There are two divergent assessments on the significance of the new law, whose final wording stipulates that “Torah study is a fundamental value in the heritage of the Jewish people and in the State of Israel.”
  • Some argue that it is purely symbolic and declarative, especially after all of the other additional sections were removed, including the section that stipulated that the value of Torah study would be weighed on the scales of justice alongside other values.
  • Some ultra-Orthodox MK’s consider this an incomparably important law, believing it will have weighty consideration when the High Court next debates the issue.
• That test is likely to come soon. Immediately after the bill was passed, Yisrael Beiteinu petitioned the High Court of Justice, demanding the law be overturned and an interim injunction be issued to halt its implementation. Leader of Yisrael Beiteinu MK Avigdor Liberman said, “The law to freeze the arrest of deserters is one of the most shameful and reckless laws the State of Israel has known since its founding. That same deserter, if he were secular or from the religious Zionist sector, would be arrested and sent to prison. If he is ultra-Orthodox, on the other hand, the government grants him immunity from arrest.”
• Ahead of the vote IDF Chief of Staff Zamir made it clear that he opposed the bill. In a letter addressed to Prime Minister Netanyahu, Zamir said the proposal “provides an incentive for non-reporting for military service….The proposal clearly does not align with the needs of the IDF.” Zamir has repeatedly warned of the need for more manpower in order to sustain the IDF’s current posture across multiple fronts.    
• Decriminalising ultra-Orthodox draft deserters is another piece in the puzzle that marred Netanyahu’s government during this Knesset tenure as it saw both Shas and UTJ ministers leaving the cabinet last year in July.
• The other last-minute concession secured by the ultra-Orthodox parties include kashrut supervision bill, which centralises supervision over kosher food certification reversing the previous government opening of the kashrut industry to competition.
• In order to make legislative space for yesterday’s Knesset passage, the government removed the Metropolitan Authorities Law from the agenda. Had it passed, transportation planning powers would have been devolved from the government to local authorities in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, Jerusalem and Haifa.

Looking ahead: Other highly contentious legislative proposals are expected to reach a vote before the Knesset closes its final session at the end of the week, including legislation to split the role of the Attorney General and the regulatory media bill.

• Under the provisions of the new law which, “recognises the importance of Torah study,” a temporary special arrangement will be made to halt the arrest of yeshiva students whose “vocation is Torah study.” The temporary provision will be valid from the date of the law’s passage until November 30, 2026.
• Relating to these new laws, leader of the Together Party Bennett declared, “The next government will be established on the basis of Zionist parties. Shas and UTJ are anti-Zionist parties. They teach their children, ‘We’ll die and won’t enlist.’ It’s disgraceful that we are bankrolling that.” He added that forming a government along with Deri (Shas) would be a “terrible mistake.. since if you do that you won’t be able to correct anything.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is planning to visit the US and meet President Trump, possibly as early as next week.

What’s happened: On Sunday, the Knesset House Committee announced that the date for Israel’s general election will be October 27.

• Coalition whip MK Ofir Katz (Likud) spoke of the government’s achievements, telling the House Committee that, “We passed nine budgets and hundreds of laws that benefit the citizens of the State of Israel.”
• Yisrael Beytenu leader MK Avigdor Liberman said, “On October 27, we will win. We will replace the government of the October 7 massacre and establish a Zionist and statesmanlike government, and we will rebuild the country.”
• Today the Knesset will begin its final session and will hold continuous votes on a range of proposed legislation that is waiting for final approval day and night, until Friday.
• Coalition MKs have been instructed not to leave Jerusalem in order to ensure a majority for all votes.
• Issues on the legislative agenda include:
  • Minister Levin’s bill to split the attorney general’s powers. The bill would divide the role into two separate jobs: an attorney general, responsible for legal advice to the government, representing the state in noncriminal matters and leading the state legal advisory system; and a general prosecutor, exclusively responsible for criminal law, including indictments and managing the public prosecution.
  • Basic Law: Torah Study. The bill would enshrine, “Torah study is a fundamental value of Jewish heritage and the State of Israel.” This is a softened version, removing a clause that would have granted draft dodgers benefits equivalent to those of combat soldiers, but could still be used to justify not serving in the military.  
  • Minister Karhi’s media bill. The bill would allow the establishment of new news channels with almost no regulation, abolish the structural separation between channel owners and news companies and create a government app through which all news channels could be accessed for free. It would also give the government, through appointments to the new regulator, significantly more influence over media oversight and enforcement.
  • Shas’s kashrut supervision bill. A reversal of a law passed by the previous government aimed at opening the kashrut industry to competition. This bill would centralise supervision over kosher food certification.

Context: October 27 will signify the first time since 1988 that elections have been held after a full four-year term.

• This marks a significant achievement for the coalition, which managed to politically survive the October 7 massacre, the worst disaster in Israeli history. It has endured not only the profound political and security crisis that followed, but also the mass street protests triggered by the government’s attempted judicial overhaul.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is focused on two main political issues:
  • He is working to pass legislation designed to preserve his bloc and his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox.
  • He is also trying to cancel the Likud internal elections and secure ten personal slots on the party’s slate.
• For over a decade the ultra-orthodox have been perceived as Netanyahu’s ‘natural partners’ however gaps have emerged.
• Over the weekend  Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, the spiritual leader of Shas, (and son of the party’s founder) suggested Eisenkot could be a better option, he was quoted saying, “There is no chance Bibi will repent. Eisenkot might.”
• Another ultra-Orthodox partner, head of the Degel Hatorah faction MK Moshe Gafni recently declared that the party no longer feel bound to Netanyahu.
• Netanyahu calculations suggest that he believes the price he will pay for advancing the ultra-Orthodox legislation is lower than the cost of entering the election without a united bloc, which could at least prevent the opposing camp from forming a government.
• However, it now appears that the controversial Basic Law: Torah Study has been stripped of the most meaningful aspects (that would have placed bible study as an equivalent value to military service) and now appears purely declarative.
• One of the major lessons from the last election is to ensure (for each bloc) that no votes are wasted. Last time Netanyahu successfully convinced Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power and Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party to merge and run together. Due to their personal animosity this appears unlikely this time around.  Instead, Likud officials are considering reserving a spot for Smotrich on the Likud list.
• Netanyahu faces a political challenge, he is conscious of the discrepancy between the popularity of some of the Likud MKs among the Likud membership versus their standing with potential Likud voters. He is aware that despite his residual popularity among right wing voters, some of his more outspoken backbenchers are controversial and unpopular. He is therefore hoping to convince the internal Likud mechanism to give him maximum control and insert his own preferred candidates into prominent positions on the party slate.
• Within the current Likud faction, former Speaker of the Knesset MK Yuli Edelstein announced that he will not run with Likud in the upcoming elections. Similarly Likud MK Dan Illouz, a leading voice within Likud against legislation favouring the ultra-Orthodox announced that he is also leaving the party.
• According to the latest polling by Kan News, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has overtaken Likud for the first time and is now slated to win 24 seats were elections to be held today, one more than Netanyahu’s Likud.
• However, the seat that Eisenkot’s party has added since the last poll  did not come at the expense of  Likud, but at the expense of Naftali Bennett’s Together Party, which lost one seat and is now projected to win 15 seats. The Netanyahu bloc lost one seat and is now projected to win 52 seats, whereas the current opposition parties (including Arab parties) are projected to win 68 seats.
• Regarding suitability to serve as prime minister, 41% of respondents said they view Gadi Eisenkot as the most suitable candidate, compared with 37% for Netanyahu.

Looking ahead: The Knesset will be dissolved this coming Friday, July 17, entering a lengthy recess until after the elections.

• Netanyahu’s government will then enter a transitional caretaker phase, during which laws can only pass with the mutual consent of the Knesset factions.
• After several delays the Likud party’s constitution committee will soon meet to decide the mechanism for choosing the Likud’s party list and how many reserved spots will be granted to the prime minister. One proposal submitted to the constitution committee would be to select candidates through a hybrid of three methods; Netanyahu’s personally-selected candidates, a nominating committee and internal elections. Netanyahu is demanding ten personal slots.
• Netanyahu wants quiet until all (or some) the contentious bills are passed by the Knesset this week. Only once the Knesset is in recess will they set the criteria for the list, so there will be no chance for a rebellion within the Likud faction.
• The election will be overseen by the Central Elections Committee, which is made up of representatives of the factions represented in the Knesset according to their relative size. The committee is headed by Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg. It has not yet been decided whether party lists must be submitted 45 or 50 days before the election.

What’s happened: Domestic politics in Israel was roiled by a unanimous decision by the Israeli cabinet yesterday not to comply with a Supreme Court ruling regarding a regulatory agency of commercial broadcast media.

• The controversy has come to a head over a deal to purchase Channel 13, a commercial broadcaster whose news broadcasts are seen by many as more liberal-leaning and hostile to the Government.  In March 2026, a consortium of hi-tech billionaires, all more or less publicly identified with the opposition, swooped in with a successful bid to purchase the station. The government would prefer to block this buy-out.
• In Israel, buy-outs need to be approved by a regulatory body known as the Second Authority for Television and Radio, yet this body currently does not have a quorum of members, due to several resignations – allegedly under political pressure – in the last two months.
• The Government’s position is that without a quorum of 10 members, the Second Authority cannot function and thus cannot make binding decisions.
• The Supreme Court had to decide whether to allow the continued functioning of the Second Authority or yield to the Government’s demand to hobble it or pack it with loyalist appointees who might not meet normal standards. Ultimately, it decided that the least bad option was to allow the Second Authority to keep functioning without the quorum. The Supreme Court identified the suspicion that resignations from the Second Authority were deliberately orchestrated by the government in order to stymie the Authority’s ability to rule on the Channel 13 buy-out by investors who are identified with the opposition.
• It is this ruling which the Cabinet yesterday decided it would not abide by.
• Reactions to the Cabinet decision have been furious, and despite significant developments on both the Gaza and Lebanon fronts (as well as a series of US visits being planned by senior officials for the coming week, a possible indication of a turning point on the Iran issue), the story has dominated headlines in Israel today.
  • President Herzog responded to the Cabinet decision with a statement that “noncompliance with the Supreme Court’s rulings is a red line that must never be crossed under any circumstances.”
  • Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi, the politician most identified with the Government’s push to dismantle existing commercial media regulation, attacked both the President and the Supreme Court ruling, saying, “Where was the president two weeks ago when the High Court of Justice handed down a decision in explicit contradiction to the law?”
  • Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fuchs denied that the Government was disobeying a Court ruling at all. “Contrary to reports, there isn’t a single word in the statement that calls for noncompliance with High Court of Justice rulings but, rather, fierce criticism of a ruling that is contrary to the explicit wording of the law,” he said in a statement, refereeing to the legally mandated quorum which the Court ruled was not necessary for now.
  • Opposition leader Yair Lapid was scathing in his reaction to the Cabinet decision. “This is the collapse of the foundations of our democracy,” he said. “Today, the government became a criminal. If the government sees that it is about to lose the election, either it will cheat in the election or it will announce that it is postponing the election because of a tense security situation or for some other reason, and there will no possibility of appealing this in court, because as far as it is concerned, there is no court.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu recused himself from the vote in Cabinet on the matter, as his current trial would have put him in a conflict of interest. Nevertheless, it was universally understood that the measure was being passed with his support and encouragement.

Context: The agency in question is Israel’s Second Authority for Television and Radio, which was formed in 1990 to regulate commercial broadcasting. A separate body, the Israel Broadcasting Authority, regulates public broadcasting.

• The Second Authority is supposed to comprise 15 members, and by law has a quorum of 10 for binding decisions. Until recently, it had 14 members, but seven have resigned in one way or another, reportedly under pressure from Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi, who has been advancing a controversial media reform bill that would give the Government much more direct control of commercial media management.
• The issue of whether the Authority can convene without a quorum of members – which the Supreme Court said is possible and which the government opposes – might seem arcane and technical. But is has sparked furious passions for two reasons.
  • First, the outcome over the fight on this regulatory body will have far-reaching implications for the media environment in Israel. The struggle to influence private and public media (or the struggle to protect them from undue corporate or government influence) is one of the main threads connecting both the Netanyahu corruption trials and the attempted judicial reform launched in early 2023.
  • Second, the precedent set by a Government announcing that it is practically ignoring a Supreme Court ruling reignites all the passions of the 2023 imbroglio over the judicial overhaul. For the Government’s critics, it serves as an indication of potential future attempts to skirt legal rulings and normative governance practices as the nation heads towards general elections which, if current polling is accurate, the governing coalition is slated to lose.
• Channel 13 has the lowest ratings of the major news broadcasters, which are dominated by Channel 12 (also known as N12), whose reputation is more centrist, but also quite hostile to the Government and especially the Prime Minister.
• Nevertheless, Channel 13 has been the target of efforts by Government loyalists to push its news coverage in a more friendly direction. In 2024, the board installed Yulia Shamalov-Berkovich, a former MK from the centrist Kadima party whose politics had moved distinctly to the right as CEO of Channel 13 News, despite her lack of relevant of experience in media or management. This led to an open revolt among the newsroom’s journalists, who refused to work with her, and she was ultimately forced to resign.
• In the months following that affair, there were several attempts to engineer buyouts of Channel 13 by investors, some of whom were identified publicly with the right-wing coalition. All of these fell through due to regulatory or financial problems.
• In March of this year, when the consortium of tech billionaires identified with the opposition succeeded in presenting a buyout of Channel 13, and it was at this point that the Communications Minister sought to change the composition of the Second Authority. The Court blocked his attempt to scramble the Second Authority and recreate it with his appointments as a conflict of interest and an attempt to block the successful buyout bid.

Looking ahead: The range of dates on which the next general election can be held continues to narrow. The latest legal date is October 27 of this year. By law, elections are held on Tuesday, and must be held at least ninety but no more than 150 days after parliament is formally dissolved.

• For weeks, the coalition has been advancing a motion to dissolve parliament and hold early elections. Normally, this is a quick process, but this time while it was ongoing, the parties whose dispute was the reason for calling early elections — Likud and the religious nationalist parties on the one hand and the ultra-Orthodox parties on the other — found common cause on a bevy of controversial legislation.
• At this point, the only Tuesdays that meet the legal time requirements are all in October, and the first two (October 6 and October 13) are impractical because of their proximity to holidays. This means that “early” elections will be early by, at most, one week (October 20) and may very well take place on their original date (October 27).

What’s happened: As negotiations in Switzerland, between the US and Iran, and in Washington, between Israel and Lebanon, drag on Israel’s attention yesterday turned to domestic politics and the brewing storm regarding Haredi conscription and the last ditch efforts of the governing coalition to push through controversial legislation before the anticipated dissolution of parliament.

• Yesterday, a protest was organised by one of the ultra-Orthodox factions, Agudat Yisrael, with the intention of disrupting traffic nationwide through a slow-moving convoy heading towards a military prison where several ultra-Orthodox men who refused to comply with call-up orders are being detained.
• The protest itself did not meet the expectations of its organisers, with far too few people showing up to have the desired effect. Traffic was disrupted for a few hours on major highways, but ultimately no rally was held outside the military prison.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu completed his testimony to a Tel Aviv court yesterday in the corruption trial which has convulsed Israeli politics for nearly a decade. His trial has been underway since early 2020, and the criminal investigations which led to the trial began in 2016. The Prime Minister was first called to the witness stand in December 2024, and yesterday was his 98th hearing in the court. Over that time, multiple hearings were cancelled or postponed due to health crises, national emergencies, and wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.
• With his testimony finished, he will not reappear in court until the day a verdict is read out. The claim, used alternately by the Prime Minister’s supporters and opponents for different ends, that the trial was interfering with ability to perform his official duties, is now mostly moot.
• Also yesterday, an Israeli civilian working as a contractor for the Defence Ministry in Gaza was killed in a building collapse in the Gaza Strip. Raad Abu al-Qi’an, from the Bedouin town Hura, was carrying out demolition works with heavy machinery when the structure he was operating in collapsed. An IDF reservist was also killed in southern Lebanon in a truck accident. Master Sgt. (res.) Basil Sweid, 32, from the Druze town Peki’in, was driving a refuelling truck in the Yellow Line area of southern Lebanon when his truck overturned, killing him and moderately wounding a combat soldier.

Context: Protests from the ultra-orthodox public and the draft have been escalating in recent months because, in departure from earlier practice, ultra-Orthodox men who do not show up for draft call ups are occasionally being detained.

• In years past, this did not occur due to a complex system of deferments which the Israeli judiciary has determined were illegal. The only way to keep the deferment system going is for parliament to pass legislation enshrining it into law. But such legislation is extremely unpopular, and has become even more so since the multi-front war which ensued following the October 7 massacre nearly three years ago.
• Agudat Yisrael is the largely Hasidic party that together with Degel HaTorah, the non-Hasidic Ashkenazi faction, make up the joint list known as United Torah Judaism (UTJ) which represents the Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox public in general.  UTJ secured seven seats in the most recent Knesset election, the fourth consecutive election in which it won that exact number of mandates. It has won between six and eight seats in the last seven parliamentary elections, an indication of its steady, largely demographically determined, voting public.
• The right-wing and religious coalition in power since late 2022 would ordinarily be expected to push such legislation through as the political cost of keeping its various factions in place, but the war and the steep losses incurred by both the secular and national religious public have made parts of the right-wing coalition squeamish about some of the more extreme measures that would be needed to make the blanket deferment legal.
• At the same time, the absence of any legislation leaves the IDF with little choice but to actually detain draft refusers, even if in relatively small numbers, further inflaming passions in the Haredi community.
• While comprehensive legislation on the issue remains off the table for now, Likud lawmakers and their Haredi allies are trying to push through deeply unpopular partial measures that each side desperately wants to see come into effect before the Knesset is formally dissolved and new elections called.
• The ultra-orthodox parties would like to see the passage of far-reaching legislation entrenching legal privileges that are broadly rejected by the general public. The proposed Basic Law: Torah Study, for example, would define Torah study as “a foundational value of Jewish heritage” and would recognise Torah study as a “significant national contribution,” potentially opening the path for non-working non-serving ultra-Orthodox men to enjoy a host of public benefits normally reserved for IDF veterans. As a Basic Law, it would essentially be a quasi-constitutional statue that would override future legislation by future majorities in parliament.
• Ultra-orthodox parties have also secured Netanyahu’s backing for a bill that would undo a reform in kashrut certification that was well liked by the public, including the religiously observant public, but which shut off a lucrative patronage valve for ultra-Orthodox parties.
• They have also apparently secured the Prime Minister’s backing for a bill that would grant immunity from arrest for draft dodgers, which would not change the legal status of draft dodgers in the absence of comprehensive legislation on conscription, but would eliminate the biggest disincentive to refusal to serve.
• In exchange for this, the Haredi parties have reportedly given their assent to support a raft of parliamentary measures which Netanyahu and his party are keen to pass despite enormous public opposition. These include controversial judicial reforms, such as splitting the role of Attorney General, a contentious media reform bill, and a measure to place the internal investigations unit of the Israel Police under the direct control of the Justice Minister.
• The attempt to split the role of the Attorney General, if passed, would constitute the first real victory of the ambitious judicial reform whose rollout in the early days of the current Government in January 2023 sent Israel into months of demonstrations and counter-demonstrations.
• The proposed legislation would create a separate Prosecutor General, who would be appointed to six-year terms by a public committee and be responsible for prosecutions and investigations. The remaining responsibilities would under the remit of a newly constituted position retaining the name Attorney General, but this Attorney General would be a political appointee of the Government whose term would be tied to the Government in power. Supporters of the reform claim it would be in line with reigning international standards, while opponents fear that would politicise the judicial system and eliminate a crucial check on executive power.
• Netanyahu is accused of fraud and breach of trust for allegedly accepting expensive gifts in exchange for favours as well as for concocting a scheme to limit circulation of a free daily newspaper in exchange for more favourable coverage from an established daily tabloid (the plot, if real, was in any event never carried out). He is also accused of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery (a much more serious offence in the Israeli penal code) in a case where he allegedly advanced legislation that would have financially benefited a major media tycoon in exchange for positive media coverage.

Looking ahead: In the meantime, there is still no agreed upon date for the upcoming election. By law elections are scheduled for October 27 of this year. As the Knesset tarries in considering motions to dissolve itself and call early elections, the range of dates keeps shrinking. “Early” elections in Israel have to be held at least 90 days after parliament is formally dissolved, a no more than five months after that. Elections can only be held on a Tuesday and can’t be on a religious holiday. If the elections do not end up being held on their original date, it is likely they will only have been moved up by about a week to October 20.

• In public opinion polling, the governing coalition and opposition blocs remain almost unchanged for more than two years. The two most recent polls to be published in recent days both show the coalition projected to win 53 seats and the opposition projected to win 67. In the opposition camp, six seats are projected for the Arab list Hadash-Ta’al who are not expected to join any future coalition, and four are projected for Ra’am, which was a part of the so-called “Change Government” in power briefly in 2021-22 under Prime Ministers Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid.
• The bigger drama inside the opposition bloc has been the steady erosion of support for the combined list of the two former Prime Ministers Bennett and Lapid and the concomitant rise of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. The former has fallen to 15 mandates in the most recent polls while the latter has risen to 20. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud is steady on 23 mandates.
• Netanyahu’s trial will continue with several dozen more witnesses due to testify, but Netanyahu himself no longer needs to appear in court in person. The deadline to complete the trial appears to be March 2028, when the head of the judging panel, Justice Rivka Friedman-Feldman, will reach the age of 70 and is due to retire.