In this episode, Richard Pater speaks with Hagar Chemali about the prospects for Israel-Lebanon peace and the US-led diplomatic efforts taking place in Washington. Chemali outlines why she believes Hezbollah’s weakened position, shifting Lebanese public opinion and the Trump administration’s regional approach have created a rare opportunity for progress. Hagar also assesses Hezbollah’s current strength, Iran’s influence and the role of the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Hagar Chemali is a former US official who served in several national security and public affairs roles, including as Director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council under President Obama. She is the founder and creator of the award-winning world news show Oh My World! On YouTube, an adjunct professor at Columbia University, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and co-founder of the Lebanon Israel Peace Alliance.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:07:04 – 00:00:30:16
Richard Pater
Hello and welcome to the BICOM’s Podcast. I’m Richard Pater, the Director of BICOM, and today is the 20th of May. Today’s episode focuses on the talks, the diplomatic efforts to reach an understanding between the Israeli and Lebanese governments that have had, I think, three rounds so far in Washington, DC. My guest today is Hagar Chemali. Hagar, thank you very much indeed for joining me.
00:00:30:17 – 00:00:33:11
Hagar Chemali
Thank you for having me, Richard. I’m so happy to be here.
00:00:33:15 – 00:00:53:02
Richard Pater
I should say welcome back, because you actually came on the on the show a couple of years ago. Just for background, for those that don’t remember, Hagar was born and raised in the US to Lebanese parents, and she has served in a range of positions within the US government, within the within the realm of national security and public affairs.
00:00:53:02 – 00:01:29:05
Richard Pater
She worked for in the second term of George Bush and then worked throughout the administration as director for Syria and Lebanon within the National Security Council. She’s also worked on terrorism funding issues within the Treasury and within the US mission at the United Nations after she left public service. She has been a professor at Columbia University in the School of International Public Affairs, as well as an affiliation with the Atlantic Council’s Geo Economic Center, and she is also the creator of an award-winning new show on You Tube called Oh My World.
00:01:29:06 – 00:01:52:16
Richard Pater
So, we should all be checking that out. I was fascinated that both your background quite rare within my standing of US politics that you both worked for, both the George W Bush and Obama, and now you’re serving in an informal capacity advising officials within the Trump administration. I wonder if you could just tell us how you make that cross the aisle, so to speak.
00:01:52:18 – 00:02:14:12
Hagar Chemali
You know, Richard, there was a moment there was an era where that wasn’t so rare, and that was the era that I grew up in, in government. Not that long ago, but over the last ten years, as you’ve noted, it is it is increasingly rare to see anybody working or trying to support or advise the administration, regardless of its party.
00:02:14:14 – 00:02:38:16
Hagar Chemali
And just to keep focused on the foreign policy objective or mission at hand. And, and I tell people all the time that I’m a student of Dennis Ross and your viewers will know very well who he is. Dennis. I worked with Dennis when I was at the National Security Council under Obama, and Dennis advised at very senior levels, a series of presidents, one after the next, regardless of whether they were that or Republican.
00:02:38:16 – 00:03:03:15
Hagar Chemali
And because he was the expert on Israel or the Israeli Palestinian conflict and on negotiating and trying to reach a solution. And so, I tell people all the time, I’m a student of Dennis Ross. And when I said this to Dennis a couple of months ago, I told him, he said, you know, by the way, Dennis, I tell people all the time because they’re always so stunned that I view myself this way, that I really, I feel just focused on the mission only at hand.
00:03:03:15 – 00:03:29:16
Hagar Chemali
And he tells me, he told me, he said, that’s lovely, but that’s just not the era we live in anymore. And he’s right. But I’m hanging on to it, and I am I and I will tell you, I, I wholeheartedly support the Trump administration’s policies in the Middle East and, and, and have been very honoured to have even a little piece of being connected to, to these folks and, and helping advise where I can or be of support wherever I can.
00:03:29:21 – 00:03:39:04
Richard Pater
So, what can you tell us about your current role, and specifically your involvement in the engagement between the Israeli and Lebanese delegations in D.C.?
00:03:39:06 – 00:03:58:09
Hagar Chemali
Sure. Well, so I started working on Lebanon as ops efforts, actually, last January when it became apparent to many of us and group of us actually, really, I call it, we call ourselves a peace crew or the caravan. We call ourselves the caravan because we hope to, when we get peace, hope to fly into Ben Gurion Airport and drive to Beirut.
00:03:58:09 – 00:04:23:09
Hagar Chemali
And I’ve invited so many people on this road trip that we that I joke, it’s now become a caravan of trucks and busses that will be headed toward the border. Many of us cannot even return to Lebanon, by the way, me included, because of the work I did in government. And so, in January of 2025, we all saw this opportunity because the escalation that took place in November 2024, it decapitated Hezbollah.
00:04:23:11 – 00:04:46:19
Hagar Chemali
We all remember the pager explosions, for example, it landed in a cease fire. And then you also had the fall of Bashar al-Assad, who also had his boots on Lebanon’s neck. So, once you removed both of those, the Hezbollah’s influences sway and Bashar al-Assad and Lebanon elected of new president after not having won for two years, a small group of us really saw this opportunity for peace.
00:04:46:19 – 00:05:10:20
Hagar Chemali
So I started working on those efforts and along the way formalized those efforts in now, an organization that I have co-founded called the Lebanon Israel Peace Alliance, Lipa, and we lobby and advocate for policies that support that support peace between the two, that it would expand the Abraham Accords to include Lebanon. And that really advances Trump’s vision in the Middle East.
00:05:10:20 – 00:05:21:18
Hagar Chemali
And we do it by pushing for certain policies, partnering with other organizations and ensuring that people in the public understand what’s happening.
00:05:21:20 – 00:05:40:17
Richard Pater
Fantastic. Before we get into some of the policy issues which are on the agenda, I want to just from your interactions with both the Lebanese and Israeli delegations, what can you tell us about the mood music and kind of the dynamic between those between those groups as they go into the talks?
00:05:40:19 – 00:06:04:18
Hagar Chemali
Yeah, it’s so fascinating, actually, because the reason to have real hope for these talks and what makes them so different than any other kind of engagement that they’ve had, is because the shift in Lebanon after Hezbollah entered itself in this war with the Iran after the Iran war, just a couple of days after the Iran war started, the shift in Lebanon in favour of peace has been dramatic.
00:06:04:18 – 00:06:29:05
Hagar Chemali
And it’s because so many Lebanese, the vast majority, including many Shias, blame Hezbollah and Iran for launching the sport, for using Lebanon as a launch pad for its wars and its and its conquests and its ideological views. And the reason there’s a less of a forgiveness than there used to be with the past wars that Hezbollah started in.
00:06:29:06 – 00:07:03:04
Hagar Chemali
For example, on October 8th and also in 2006, is that after 2006, for example, Hezbollah started that war, but then they paid for everything. They paid for the reconstruction in Lebanon. They paid for their supporters and followers; they supported them and so on. And so, people were quick to buy the propaganda that Hezbollah sold and move on and believe there lies that Hezbollah was necessary to defend the land in 2023, that that argument started having holes in it because it was very clear that Hezbollah entered this war on its own.
00:07:03:06 – 00:07:21:01
Hagar Chemali
But you still had people questioning what was happening in, you know, they in Lebanon, at least they were uncomfortable with what was happening in Gaza. And so, they didn’t like what Hezbollah was doing, but they just didn’t way into heavily. And they were they were pleased at least to see a cease fire. So, they certainly weren’t supportive of what Hezbollah was doing.
00:07:21:01 – 00:07:44:04
Hagar Chemali
But this round, they had had enough. The Lebanese government, when the Iraq War started, came out and said, no one is to enter this war. We are staying neutral. No one get involved. And two days later, Hezbollah started lobbing missiles. And I know because I’ve been working on these efforts on peace efforts since last January. Israel did not want to go to war again in Lebanon with Hezbollah.
00:07:44:06 – 00:08:03:16
Hagar Chemali
They had just they had come out of two years of Gaza. They wanted their troops back in the workforce. They viewed the disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon as not something that wasn’t supposed to be their job, that it should be the job of the Lebanese military. And they’re right, by the way. And so, they viewed it as a charity case.
00:08:03:16 – 00:08:30:12
Hagar Chemali
Why would they do this again? Why should they have to go do this? That doesn’t mean they weren’t prepared. They were absolutely prepared. But that said, that shift in mood that you had in Lebanon. Now, all of these Lebanese who view Hezbollah as nothing more than an Iranian proxy, which it has always been. But anyway, the fact that now you have them see this as a very clear example, and that they know that they’re not going to be able to pay for the reconstruction as they hadn’t after 2024.
00:08:30:18 – 00:08:53:13
Hagar Chemali
It just soured the mood across the country against Hezbollah and in favour of peace, no matter how Lebanese feel toward Israel. And you have a range of views and sentiments, no matter how they felt, they are now you have this sentiment of, you know what? No, we want peace. We don’t want to live in the shadow of violence. They understand that peace is necessary for Lebanon to be able to prosper.
00:08:53:13 – 00:09:19:24
Hagar Chemali
And so that has really set the mood of these talks where you’ve had they have been quite cordial, quite a lot of agreeing, a lot of agreeing. In fact, in the second round, the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors agreed so much on the fact that Hezbollah is the problem here and not Israel and Lebanon respectively, that President Trump apparently at one point was like, well, okay, sounds like we all agree here.
00:09:19:24 – 00:09:43:01
Hagar Chemali
So, what’s the main problem? Hezbollah is a big problem, obviously, but the fact is that you’ve got two parties coming to the table that really see the common problem and that are figuring out how to address it. So, there are going to be, you know, there are going to be disagreements on how to address it. Of course, the Hezbollah being the problem and its disarmament, it is the main sticking point.
00:09:43:02 – 00:10:04:13
Hagar Chemali
It is the only issue. The border could be solved in five minutes. Everybody says that and I would I would agree with that. As the Trump officials say they’re arguing over anthills. These are small points along the border that could be easily fixed. Israel has no territorial clean to Lebanese land. They repeat that over and over again.
00:10:04:15 – 00:10:25:17
Hagar Chemali
It is it is about Hezbollah. And so, these have been collaborative talks and very positive. We have now a fourth round coming up, and the fourth round has been split into two tracks, one track that’s more military and security focused and another that’s more diplomatic and which I think is fantastic. And so, there’s a real reason to have hope there.
00:10:25:17 – 00:10:46:24
Hagar Chemali
But I also want to be cautious. There are there’s a long way to go. There is, of course, in my opinion, some stubbornness coming from the Lebanese side. And, and these talks will go up and down. But I really do believe that they will end somewhere great. And already we’ve crossed the Rubicon like there’s no going back.
00:10:47:00 – 00:10:56:20
Hagar Chemali
The taboo of peace in Lebanon has been broken, and a very clear majority are in favour. And that really speaks volumes.
00:10:56:22 – 00:11:17:04
Richard Pater
Just going back to something you said before about kind of the reflections when you entered in January 25th, and at the time that was post the beeper operation and the and the, the targeted killing of Nasrallah and the feeling that here in Israel and I think elsewhere that you’ve expressed as well, was that Hezbollah had been defeated.
00:11:17:04 – 00:11:36:12
Richard Pater
Nevertheless, we find ourselves 18 months later, less with what seems like quite a tenacious enemy. How do you explain that, that gap in, in perception or in reality between the power that how much Hezbollah had been defeated compared to their staying power now?
00:11:36:14 – 00:12:06:00
Hagar Chemali
Yeah. So, I wouldn’t use the word defeated from 2024. They were. That’s why I said decapitated. And first of all, they were literally decapitated. And the secretary general Nasrallah was killed. And other leaders, of course. And then you had those that that famous explosion operation that really caught the attention of the world. And so, they were decapitated and a large chunk of their missiles and weapons arsenal had been destroyed, which was fantastic.
00:12:06:00 – 00:12:33:23
Hagar Chemali
So, they were significantly weakened. But they were still they were still there. They were still existing. Now, in that period, post November 2024 through the beginning of 2025, I would say the first half, if you will, Hezbollah was really on its back foot. I mean, visibly weaker, psychologically weaker. You know, they weren’t flexing their muscles as much. Everybody was very much aware that they were there and that they were trying to rebuild and that they would try to rebuild.
00:12:33:23 – 00:12:58:03
Hagar Chemali
And in the in terms of how it reflected in Lebanese government formation, it, for example, they used to have more ministers in their cabinet. Now they only have two ministers in the cabinet, for example. So, they didn’t have any more heavy influence. They couldn’t hold the government back on any decisions. Not none, no decisions. They didn’t have a majority block in the parliament anymore, like a coalition.
00:12:58:03 – 00:13:32:24
Hagar Chemali
So, they were still there. And definitely we knew they would try to rebuild, but they weren’t defeated. Now, somewhere around six months into it, you know, halfway through 2025 when and then I can tell you this, having worked in counterterrorism and counterterrorism terrorist groups, are they evade, they adapt, they evolve. They always find a workaround when things are thrown at them, they are very good at adapting to new environments and finding new ways to rearm, to fund themselves, to raise, move and store funds.
00:13:33:01 – 00:13:55:18
Hagar Chemali
And it’s like a game of whack a mole. And we always used to say that when I worked at the Treasury Department, for example, and somewhere six months in, they started to adapt then and the Iranian regime. So, for example, they found new conduits and new ways to send money. The one of the one of the ways they did that the Iranian regime sent $1 billion to Hezbollah throughout 2025.
00:13:55:18 – 00:14:17:05
Hagar Chemali
And that was mainly while they used to send it mostly across the Syrian border. And that was now gone, that that Syrian land bridge was for, for the, for the most part gone. They started doing it through hawala, through the UAE, finding mechanisms and avenues through the UAE to send money informally. That couldn’t be traced for your listeners.
00:14:17:06 – 00:14:38:05
Hagar Chemali
Hola. What that means is a leader is somebody who, if I go to you, Richard, and you’re sitting in Jerusalem and I say, hey, Richard, can you send $2,000 to my mom sitting in Jerusalem, you give her $2,000 of your money and I’ll, I’ll give you $2,000 later or you have an account in the United States. And I’ll just put the $2,000 here.
00:14:38:05 – 00:15:14:14
Hagar Chemali
It’s money that is not traceable. It doesn’t move. And so that’s what a wallet does. So, they found money ways to do it that way. They also were sending money suitcases full of cash through the VIP lounge of the airport, thanks to the Iranian embassy and Iranian diplomats. So they found new ways to fund themselves, and they found new ways to arm themselves in that way, either through that money or through manufacturing at home, which was new for Hezbollah factories that were creating drones and such that we’re now seeing these drones that are causing a real problem for Israeli troops on it, truly, unfortunately.
00:15:14:14 – 00:15:41:02
Hagar Chemali
And, and also and also, they found, you know, the Syrian border is very porous. And so, they found parts of the border that they could try and ship weapons through. So, they found ways. And at a certain point in the late summer, early fall, the assessment was by the Israelis and by the United States, that Hezbollah was now rebuilding and rearming itself at a pace that was faster than the Israeli strikes could keep up the strikes.
00:15:41:05 – 00:16:11:05
Hagar Chemali
The Israeli strikes were kept going on average of twice a day since the cease fire. That is because they maintained that the ability to respond and pre-empt Hezbollah attacks, but also because there was an agreement with the Lebanese and through the US brokered by the US, that the Israelis would give the coordinates of where they saw missiles to a US conduit, the US Marines would pass that information to the Lebanese Armed Forces, and the Lebanese Armed Forces had 72 hours to seize or destroy those weapons.
00:16:11:05 – 00:16:33:05
Hagar Chemali
This was part of the disarmament agreement, and if they didn’t, then they would be struck. And that’s why you never saw the Lebanese say anything about those strikes unless they killed a civilian. And so those strikes were what could at a certain point were unable to keep up. And the argument that many of us made to the Lebanese were, if you don’t take disarmament seriously, you’re going to have round two.
00:16:33:06 – 00:16:58:06
Hagar Chemali
There is no way it is inevitable if you don’t take disarmament seriously. It allows Hezbollah to get money through the airport or get weapons through the border, and not and not really seize and destroy these weapons. Seriously, you’re going to face another problem. And that’s what explains how we got to today. How Hezbollah, so bold enough to enter this war also certainly who they answer to.
00:16:58:07 – 00:17:17:16
Hagar Chemali
But why now? They are still a force that exists at all. And that is causing some problems. I will say, I believe that Israel will find a way, as they always do. I think they will find a way to, to combat these drones that but either way, that’s how we got to today.
00:17:17:18 – 00:17:37:10
Richard Pater
Thank you. And just kind of based on the reality of today, I mean, there’s a lot of concern, particularly in, in the north of Israel, that the cease fire is much more fire and much less of the of the cease, as opposed to the cease fire that held from November 24th through to March 26th, where, as you say, kind of Israel.
00:17:37:10 – 00:17:59:13
Richard Pater
They were still playing catch up, but they had pretty much freedom of action. Now, Israel is limited within the zone, the security zone in the south. And the northern residents are still under attack, let alone the soldiers serving in that in that zone. How does the administration kind of justify this, this faux cease fire, so to speak?
00:17:59:13 – 00:18:02:02
Richard Pater
That’s not really felt on the ground.
00:18:02:04 – 00:18:32:21
Hagar Chemali
Well, right. So, some of us have been calling it a less fire and save a cease fire. And there’s a reason for that. Less fire. The reason I mean for it to that, that it continues even for example, by the way, when the cease fire was extended at the last round of talks, the third round, the last round of talks that literally minutes after it was supposed to have started, Hezbollah lobbed drones and missiles and Israel responded.
00:18:32:21 – 00:18:53:22
Hagar Chemali
And then the Lebanese tried to say, oh, no, no, no. Hezbollah was confused, and they thought that it was starting a day later, and they didn’t realize that it was starting now. That’s highly unlikely, by the way. But anyway, let’s pretend that that was the case. Then when the new the second alleged deadline came, they still broke that.
00:18:53:22 – 00:19:25:19
Hagar Chemali
And so that’s in part why you have this. You’re having this continue. There is also there is a sentiment that the problem is if you’re pursuing peace and a large part of the peace effort is really reliant on the disarmament and weakening of Hezbollah, which it is, and everybody agrees on that part. Then from the US administration side, you’re not going to have an interest in holding Israel back.
00:19:25:21 – 00:19:46:22
Hagar Chemali
The only thing that you’re going to want to hold Israel back on is pursuing an attack or assault that is so strong that it interferes with the talks with Iran, and that’s how Washington views it is. Hey, it’s in our interest to that. Israel weakens Hezbollah as much as possible, so we’re not going to get in the way of them.
00:19:46:22 – 00:20:08:17
Hagar Chemali
The cease fire deal that was written, the written text of it, and it’s on the website State Department, it says Israel has the right to pre-empt or respond or pre-empt and respond to Hezbollah attacks. And so, you have the response piece, which is an obvious one. But pre-empt also gives quiet, quite some leverage there, quite some room to operate.
00:20:08:17 – 00:20:31:17
Hagar Chemali
And that was by design. That was deliberate. And that is because Washington has this interest to. And sometimes when the when you can see the Lebanese feel as though the US can or should hold Israel back, that the US can hold them back. And I explain to people the US is not interested really in holding Israel back. If this if the US wanted to hold Israel back, they would do it and they did that.
00:20:31:19 – 00:20:57:20
Hagar Chemali
What launched these talks? These talks came on the heels of an attack that was really quite strong in the centre of Beirut. What was not well advertised with that attack is that it killed, I believe, around 250 Hezbollah individuals all at once. But that attack caused widespread panic because it was in the centre of Beirut. It was 100 strikes in the span of ten minutes.
00:20:57:22 – 00:21:17:20
Hagar Chemali
Lebanese are used to getting forewarned by the Israelis when attacks happen 99 out of 100 times, they get that, that forewarning, they step away, they whip out their phones, they start filming it. There was no forewarning. So, there was this mass panic. And then right after that happened, the Iranian regime said, well, we need a cease fire in Lebanon.
00:21:17:21 – 00:21:41:22
Hagar Chemali
Two and that’s when the white House told BB Netanyahu, listen, you need to rein it in a little bit. Like you can’t do that, but you can continue other efforts that aren’t as shocking or harsh to weaken and degrade Hezbollah further. And so that’s why I don’t really expect to be honest with you. I don’t expect things to change either.
00:21:41:22 – 00:22:18:18
Hagar Chemali
They will remain in this quote unquote, less fire situation for a while, at least until Hezbollah is degraded further, or they will return to the intensity of, of full-scale war. I don’t see a true cease fire being brokered right now or coming anytime right now in the immediate term and there. And the reason is that Hezbollah is still lobbying drones and missiles, and the Lebanese government hasn’t yet made the steps needed to legitimize that true cease fire.
00:22:18:19 – 00:22:39:02
Hagar Chemali
The main step they need to take is that they say that they will confront Hezbollah in, in the disarmament of its weapons. If the Lebanese government and military come out and say, you know what, we’ll handle the disarmament, including when it involves this confronting Hezbollah ourselves, then I think they could try to argue for a true cease fire.
00:22:39:02 – 00:22:41:01
Hagar Chemali
But short of that, I don’t think it’s going to come.
00:22:41:02 – 00:22:57:24
Richard Pater
Is that feasible? Is that possible? Do you see the LAF being able to challenge Hezbollah? And I suppose the second element of that that you mentioned before, how would you sever that tie between the influence that Iran has and Hezbollah’s network on the ground?
00:22:58:01 – 00:23:22:06
Hagar Chemali
Yeah. So, this is the $60,000 question, right? You asked the right question. Number one. It is the LAF willing and capable, because those are two things you absolutely have LAF leaders, commanders and battalions that are willing, do they have the full capabilities? Not really, but that’s fixable, to be honest with you. So, there are a few things that need to be done.
00:23:22:06 – 00:23:54:19
Hagar Chemali
And the parties know this. Right. So, these are things that they’re discussing for example. And I don’t I can’t really come out ahead and say how they’re going to land because I don’t know. But for example, you had in one of the things that undermined the disarmament process in 2025 was the fact that as time wore on, you had high level, you had leaders of certain units and battalions who were either pro straight up, pro Hezbollah, who were passing information to Hezbollah and therefore collaborating with them or coordinating with them.
00:23:54:19 – 00:24:12:08
Hagar Chemali
You had or you had people, you know, or their sympathizers, or you had people out of fear who would share information with Hezbollah because they didn’t want Hezbollah to go after their family or whatever. But that said, you had certain leaders of battalions that wouldn’t carry out the duties or would make it harder because they would tell Hezbollah, hey.
00:24:12:09 – 00:24:32:11
Hagar Chemali
For example, hey, we’re going to be in this area. You might want to move your weapons. FYI, we’re going to be there at 2 p.m. and suddenly said weapons are moved into a private property. And the rule of the disarmament process was that the Lebanese Armed Forces could not access private property. And that has proven to be now one of the that proved to be a huge problem.
00:24:32:11 – 00:24:53:20
Hagar Chemali
And now you’re seeing it as the Israelis are in the south of Lebanon, there is house after house that they’re going into showing photos of missiles and AK 47 all stocked up in people’s houses. And so, so that said, you but you also had battalions that were excellent. And that was a word given to me by someone from the IDF.
00:24:53:21 – 00:25:13:21
Hagar Chemali
You also had battalions that were truly excellent that really did the job, that were very motivated. You also have elite forces that are already trained by the United States. The connection, by the way, the ties between the US military and the Lebanese Armed Forces is quite close. The majority of their military aid comes from the United States. We had Marines on the ground.
00:25:13:23 – 00:25:45:18
Hagar Chemali
We, the U.S. military, is not currently embedded with the Lebanese Armed Forces, though it’s more of an advisory type of role, if you will, and certainly a support role, I guess, and we have this aid that we give to them. But that said, you have willingness on some parts. You could be set up by removing the pro Hezbollah folks, and we know who they are, removing them or firing them, moving them to somewhere else some other job or firing them completely.
00:25:45:18 – 00:26:13:07
Hagar Chemali
So that’s one part, is the vetting of who we’re working with and ensuring that those in charge of disarmament and the South are vetted and are understand the task at hand, and they’re willing to take it. And then you have the other part, which is capabilities, which is the fact that when you have soldiers who are paid $250 a month, $300 a month, and by the way, Hezbollah fighters are paid anywhere from 1 to $2000 a month.
00:26:13:09 – 00:26:34:02
Hagar Chemali
And you’ve got these soldiers who need to carry on 2 or 3 jobs to make ends meet. So, they might be a soldier by day, but they are a delivery boy at night or, you know, waiting tables at night or whatever. It doesn’t. It undermines that willingness also because they’ll say, like, I don’t know, why should I risk my life for 200 bucks a month?
00:26:34:02 – 00:26:57:14
Hagar Chemali
And so, you have a mix of actual finances here that need to be fixed to really build a professional army and also invest in them more. But what CENTCOM were persistently tells me, CENTCOM persistently told me this when I was in government as well, is that the Lebanese Armed Forces is a quality military. It is one that is worth investing in.
00:26:57:14 – 00:27:33:14
Hagar Chemali
And by the way, and I will tell you, you know, here I never thought I would ever see the day where the Israelis were in support of beefing up the Lebanese armed military, of course, vetted and that that aid be conditional on certain metrics and so on, which I completely agree with. I never thought I would see the day where the Israelis would make the case for the Lebanese Armed Forces in Washington, but here they are doing it because they understand that here’s they need this partner in order to not only ensure Hezbollah is disarmed, but that it remains unarmed, and that this is the force that eventually will take control over the
00:27:33:15 – 00:27:41:05
Hagar Chemali
South in a way that protects Israel’s security and the safety of its civilians. And also, that’s really, by the way, all the civilians.
00:27:41:08 – 00:28:01:24
Richard Pater
Sure. And just on the political trap track, it seems that President Trump maybe slightly jumped the gun when he announced there was going to be a meeting between Lebanese President Ion and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Do you think such a meeting is realistic? Possible. Would you care to speculate on the time frame?
00:28:02:01 – 00:28:25:08
Hagar Chemali
Yeah. So, you know what, I, I have the last a little bit about it because it’s very much this administration to move fast and break things, and I’m here for it. Honestly, I love it. I think in the Middle East you need that. It’s refreshing. It’s a breath of fresh air. It’s we have been doing the same old, tired things for decades, and so it’s refreshing to see someone just go in and try to break it.
00:28:25:09 – 00:28:48:08
Hagar Chemali
When he announced it, though, I will say I was very doubtful that it would come to be because I understand the Lebanese angle, which is that while moving fast and breaking things is great overall, the Lebanese are very sensitive to the risk of civil war. They’re very even if the risk is not that high, they’re very sensitive to it.
00:28:48:08 – 00:29:22:03
Hagar Chemali
They’re very traumatized by the Civil War they went through. And that’s by the way that factors in as well, when they talk about why they have not yet said, oh, don’t worry, we will take Hezbollah on, it’s because they’re so traumatized by the Civil War, they don’t want to reopen any possibility for that. And so, you know, I knew that when that happened, I was like, I don’t think, you know, the president and he’s going to want to sell this to his own people in order to sell it to his own people, that he’s meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu while Israel is in the country, you know, in the South.
00:29:22:05 – 00:29:42:06
Hagar Chemali
He’s going to need to say that. Oh, and I’m getting something out of this. I’m getting this or whatever. And it just felt too soon. So, I don’t think I certainly don’t think it’s impossible, by the way, before a peace deal is signed at all, especially with this administration pushing it. And you know, the mood that you see coming from both sides.
00:29:42:06 – 00:29:59:19
Hagar Chemali
But yeah, it was it was just, it was it was way too soon. And I knew it wouldn’t happen in the end. But you know, thankfully it didn’t derail the process. I was a little worried there because I will tell you, the administration doesn’t have the patience of a snow pea, right. Their view, they view this. They see the opportunity.
00:29:59:19 – 00:30:25:12
Hagar Chemali
They see the potential win. That is why you have President Trump himself hosting this. You know, these this meeting the second round. At least that’s why you have a secretary of state Rubio hosting his team, managing this, running. This is because they see the potential opportunity and win there. But they are also you know, they they’ll if they see that it’s going off track they’ll lose interest.
00:30:25:12 – 00:30:47:18
Hagar Chemali
And I was a little worried about that when President Trump called for that meeting. And OUN declined. But thankfully everybody understood. And so hopefully, hopefully the next time that happens it’ll be prepared. And every that we’ll know that the parties are already saying yes to that. I should add, though, that when President Trump invites you to the Oval Office, the answer is yes.
00:30:47:18 – 00:31:01:20
Hagar Chemali
So, while I understand where President Allen was coming from, I really hoped he would say yes, I think he will. But that’s it’s it would have been it would have broken things in the right way. But he didn’t. I wish he had, but hopefully he will the next time.
00:31:01:22 – 00:31:20:24
Richard Pater
Let’s hope, just as a wider view in taking opportunity of kind of your vantage point from DC, how has the war with Iran been perceived there? And the big question that we’re all asking is, you know, you know, we’re talking on Wednesday the 20th of May, are we likely to see a resumption of hostilities there?
00:31:21:00 – 00:31:22:15
Richard Pater
How do you see it playing out?
00:31:22:16 – 00:31:48:10
Hagar Chemali
So yes, you asked me this at a very unique time because I happen to be in Washington right now. And it’s all everybody. It’s all anybody can discuss. And the fact is, so President Trump threatened to go to return to war two days ago I believe now and didn’t. And there just isn’t very much of a belief that it’ll happen among everybody in Washington.
00:31:48:10 – 00:32:21:04
Hagar Chemali
It’s just it’s at this point it’s been the talks are not going well. We know that the talks are not going well between the United States and Iran. And yet at the same time, we just keep seeing this delay because there’s a real desire to try to reach a deal. And so, my concern is that while I don’t see a return to the intensity of war that we saw earlier this, this winter or spring, I, I see it more as sort of a war of attrition, a war of attrition, minus where things are going to kind of be quite unstable.
00:32:21:04 – 00:32:44:20
Hagar Chemali
They go up and they go down, and that’s going to be the case for a while, until the regime weakens further and, and, and loses more money and, and by the way, that’s that helps the Lebanon as a peace effort. If a deal was made in the sanctions, the Iranian regime got sanctions relief tomorrow, that could really, actually completely undo these peace talks because Hezbollah would behave, would feel emboldened.
00:32:44:22 – 00:33:10:06
Hagar Chemali
And like I said, that was that’s the crux of everything. So, but the view generally is talks aren’t going well, so nobody’s really expecting a deal anytime soon. At the same time, nobody really sees a strong interest on from President Trump to really go back to war, at least not with the intensity that it had previously been. And so, it feels like we might stay in this kind of unstable stalemate for a while.
00:33:10:08 – 00:33:30:02
Richard Pater
And do you think and just kind of connecting the dots, do you think it’s still possible to how do you how do you justify your relative optimism over the Israel Lebanese track if it can’t be removed, Iran’s shadow from that conflict as well, and that linkage that it pays Iran has been successful to cultivate?
00:33:30:07 – 00:33:51:07
Hagar Chemali
Yeah, that’s a good question. I get that question a lot because people see my optimism. I will say you can’t work in national security for not an optimist. Otherwise, we’d never get out of bed. But that said, when people always see this optimism and they confuse it for what’s happening in Iran and also what’s happening in between the Israelis and Palestinians or in Gaza specifically.
00:33:51:07 – 00:34:09:05
Hagar Chemali
And I’m always like, oh, no, no, no, I have no hope for that corner and for Iran. I think it will remain unstable for quite some time. And yet I have all this optimism for Lebanon. So, you have you have a point that that seems a little bit like a, you know, a dichotomy there. But the reason is because with Lebanon number one.
00:34:09:07 – 00:34:36:12
Hagar Chemali
Number one is that I this administration really does not want to see in any way, shape or form the regime, rebuild, refund itself, rearm. And I know that. I mean, I see it, I genuinely believe it. They want nothing more than this regime to go into fall and to collapse, even if that means, like, you know, an alternate government of I know that they it’s very clear they’re trying to get some kind of scenario similar to what they were able to achieve in Venezuela.
00:34:36:13 – 00:34:59:03
Hagar Chemali
I don’t think that’s possible for the record, but because they’re dealing with ideological fanatics, it’s completely different. But that said, I also separately believe that the regime is left to its own devices as it is now. Really, those cracks and fissures are going to grow because ultimately, they have no money. And at the end of the day, a dictator is only as strong as its military is loyal.
00:34:59:03 – 00:35:40:05
Hagar Chemali
And once you’re unable to pay your military, that that that disgruntlement grows. That’s how Bashar al-Assad fell. Ultimately, it’s because his military defected. That’s how Mubarak fell. It’s because the military sided with the people. And so, I see that happening anyway. And so what I see more is it might it might prolong the Lebanon Israel peace process, because there while the tracks are very separate and deliberately so, and I think the administration has done an amazing job saying that, I also think, by the way, the Israelis and Lebanese have been very good and very loud and clear about how separate they are from what’s happening with Iran.
00:35:40:07 – 00:35:59:16
Hagar Chemali
I would be remiss not to mention the context in which these talks are happening. And there is, of course, if the regime decides to cut a deal, they genuinely work with the administration, which is looking very unlikely, and get sanctions relief. Of course, it’s going to undermine what happens. I just don’t really believe that’s going to happen.
00:35:59:16 – 00:36:21:23
Hagar Chemali
I think instead, I if I have to look into my crystal ball, it might end up instead going up and down. We’re going to have these ups and downs with these talks. Some of it might end up feeling connected to what’s happening with the with the Iran talks or situation with Iran, but that eventually we’ll get there. It’s just it just might not be as fast as we all wish or hope.
00:36:21:23 – 00:36:49:21
Hagar Chemali
Even President Trump said, oh, for sure, we’re going to get peace later this year, I hope, from his lips to God’s ears. But it depends on a little bit. That’s that really depends a bit more on Iran. But I also have hope because with Lebanon and Israel, we’ve crossed a Rubicon that that we never thought. I mean, if you think about a year ago when I well, in February of last year of 2025, I spoke about Lebanon Peace at the Munich Security Conference.
00:36:49:21 – 00:37:07:11
Hagar Chemali
I spoke about it again at this Munich Security conference now in 2026, in 2025, when I did it, it was completely taboo. Every Lebanese whipped out their phones. Some of them walked out of the room. It was like I had dropped a bomb, and you know, oh my God, don’t mention the word peace. Oh my God, can’t you?
00:37:07:16 – 00:37:28:01
Hagar Chemali
How could you say this word? No. You know, now everybody in Lebanon is calling for peace publicly. Everybody. This is just we it’s now become like a complete like that. This is the goal that we need to work toward, that Lebanon needs a peace deal in order to prosper. And by the way, they do, they absolutely need a peace deal.
00:37:28:03 – 00:37:53:12
Hagar Chemali
And you now have polling showing the majority of the people in support of it. So, and you have steps that are being taken that are in process that will never go back. For example, efforts to decriminalize what are called the criminalization laws in Lebanon that prohibit Lebanese people from even speaking to an Israeli or being seen with an Israeli, certainly not traveling to Israel, although so many want to.
00:37:53:14 – 00:38:17:01
Hagar Chemali
There’s a big push now to decriminalize. That’s what we call decriminalization in Lebanon. You know, you can never you can’t turn that off. And so also these this direct dialog that has now been set up between the Lebanese and Israelis, the Lebanese ambassador here is remarkable. She’s amazing. And, you know, and I hear from each side, you know, how much faith they have in the other partner.
00:38:17:02 – 00:38:33:05
Hagar Chemali
Right. Like they know that there’s a long way to go, but how much faith they have. So that’s what I mean. There’s this Rubicon that’s been crossed and, and that Band-Aid that’s been ripped and everything out there. And no one can put that genie back in the box. That’s the expression I’m looking for. And that’s why I have real optimism.
00:38:33:07 – 00:39:02:19
Richard Pater
That’s just one last question. You mentioned that the polling and I saw some of the some of the data. Is it fair to say that the public is split very much on still sectarian lines, that the Shiite community are still giving their backing to Hezbollah, or is that still the case, or do you see any gaps, even within the Shia community, that understand the danger that an instability that Hezbollah is bringing to their own population and community?
00:39:02:24 – 00:39:29:22
Hagar Chemali
Oh, I’m so glad you asked this question, because the most recent polling and I forgive me because I forgot the name of the those that conducted the poll. So, what first, on one hand, it was astounding. The numbers showed on sectarian lines of those in support of normalization, not just peace normalization. And so, it had numbers, huge majorities, for example, for the Druze.
00:39:29:22 – 00:39:54:04
Hagar Chemali
The Druze are not really historically in Lebanon. They’re very different than the Druze in Israel. The Druze in Lebanon have not been pro-peace. Their leader, Willy Jumblatt, is really not pro-peace. He’s a major thorn in everyone’s side, actually. He’s also high most of the time, by the way, so he’s obviously not thinking rationally. And yet the numbers for the Druze, I think was something like 86% in support of peace.
00:39:54:06 – 00:40:20:11
Hagar Chemali
Sunni was over 50%, 54, 56 something like this, 5,456% Maronites, a huge most majority right numbers we never thought we would see in general. So, let’s put that to the side that if you just look at those sectarian groups, the support is overwhelming. And a vast majority the Shia you had, it was the from this poll, it was something like 90% who were against it.
00:40:20:12 – 00:40:48:13
Hagar Chemali
Except the problem is and I’m not trying to be selective here, but I’m going to be here you cannot poll displaced people during wartime. That is that is known. Its most pulling companies don’t pull during wartime when it’s displaced people because you cannot get a randomized scientific symbol. It’s very difficult. It’s almost impossible to do that. So that’s number one.
00:40:48:14 – 00:41:15:03
Hagar Chemali
That number to me, given what I know, what I read, who I talk to, all the Shia were in touch with, and there are so many who are in support of peace and who are super anti Hezbollah. And I think you could split those two buckets up for sure. There is a growing number of them who are very disillusioned with Hezbollah, who really are angry and don’t believe that Hezbollah will take care of them after who know they won’t.
00:41:15:03 – 00:41:36:22
Hagar Chemali
And they’ve come out publicly to say that. And then you have those who go the further the next step and say, oh, by the way, and I’m pro-peace. But the thing that I keep hearing from the Shia in general is that whether they are wherever they are, they just want peace in general. They want their house. They don’t want they want to feed their family, and they don’t want the house to be destroyed.
00:41:36:24 – 00:42:03:20
Hagar Chemali
You know, on a, on a on a whim and know that and never know when they’re going to be able to return. And so that sentiment has swept the Shia as well. And that is what I have seen. That is what everyone I have talked to has seen as well, that certainly what Washington sees with its assessments. But that poll and so I you know, I feel bad saying that like, oh, I’m going to give credibility to one side of the poll and not to the other, but the fact is that it’s very hard to pull displaced people during wartime.
00:42:03:20 – 00:42:06:23
Hagar Chemali
And so, we have to take that number with a grain of salt.
00:42:07:00 – 00:42:15:15
Richard Pater
Well, we’ll leave there on that note of optimism. Thank you guys. Thank you so much for talking to me today and good luck with all your endeavours.
00:42:15:17 – 00:42:18:21
Hagar Chemali
Thank you so much for having me, Richard, and thank you to your listeners.